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For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years. However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jason Heyward, OF: $106MM through 2023 (may opt out of contract)
- Jon Lester, SP: $47.5MM through 2020. Includes mutual/vesting option for 2021.
- Yu Darvish, SP: $101MM through 2023
- Ben Zobrist, INF/OF: $12MM through 2019
- Tyler Chatwood, SP/RP: $25.5MM through 2020
- Brandon Morrow,RP: $12MM through 2019. Includes vesting option for 2020.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $13MM through 2019. Includes club options for 2020 and ’21.
- Steve Cishek, RP: $7.5MM through 2019
- Brian Duensing, RP: $3.5MM through 2019
- Drew Smyly, SP: $7MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kris Bryant, 3B – $12.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks, SP – $7.6MM
- Javier Baez, INF – $7.1MM
- Addison Russell, SS – $4.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber, OF – $3.1MM
- Mike Montgomery, SP/RP – $3.0MM
- Carl Edwards Jr., RP – $1.4MM
- Tommy La Stella, INF – $1.2MM
Contract Options
- Cole Hamels, SP: $20MM club option. Rangers pay $6MM buyout if declined.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Pedro Strop, RP: $6.25MM club option with a $500K buyout
- Brandon Kintzler, RP: $10MM club option or $5MM player option
Free Agents
[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]
“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies. The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club. Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.
Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties. Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline. Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances. He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days. Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis. Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense. Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup. After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.
The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right. Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+. That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016. Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since. He was limited to just 102 games this year. Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him. Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date. Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.
Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position. Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again. Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season. Baez fits well at any infield position. He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate. The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract. Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line. The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.
Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM deal. MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM. Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger? With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes. Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time. The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold. Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.
Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado. Which player is the better fit? My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras). Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras. Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.
The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted. Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop. Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field. That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions. I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.
Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios. Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder. Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability. However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon. There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.
Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year. Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties. Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less. He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder. The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year. Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons. It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter. Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.
Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions. They’re just the best ones. Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster. The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.
Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year. Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know. With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.” The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident. In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go. We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.
Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation. Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in. Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow. He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training. Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready. The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract. Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December. He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.
While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood. The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018. In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs. Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s. Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.
Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option. Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas. The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.
Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth. In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies. Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side. Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs. Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019. The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio. Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover. The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario. They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.
Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them. From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing. The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training. Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen. I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal). One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.
The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019. Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end. My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.
Though most MLBTR readers graded the Cubs’ 2017-18 offseason an A or a B at the time, the first year results of those deals were quite poor. The stakes might be higher this time around. Now that expectations are sky-high, this year’s early playoff exit must be considered a disappointment. The money involved could be bigger than ever and Epstein will be making decisions that have a large impact on whether his team can pull off another World Championship inside the three years of control remaining for Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.
How are the brewers doing? I’m not sure..
Classy comment.
hey be careful you can jinx it
They’ve never won a WS in their history. Lots (history) of struggles, and Cubs own the division. You slipped by last game, good for you but this comment probably doesn’t help their cause. Yelich winning MVP though.
Why even come in here with that?
@steven he feels the need to comment on literally every post on MLBTR. Not to mention he just started watching baseball in 2015. Favorite teams are most likely astros, patriots, and warriors
Upvoted.
Actually Yankees but yep that’s Xabial
Harry Is this baseball or personal? Just saying brew fan dont have a lot of room to talk… didn’t get personal…
Again who TF Re you? I’ll post where I damn please, and definitely contributed more than a shill account, you made couple of months ago, Harry, my man.
Come in with what Chinwood? Shouldn’t your comment be addressed towards Brew fan atop
My take: See Brew fan decide to (rub it in) Cubs thread, responded you guys dont have a lot of room to brag, because for all we know 2018 could be an anomaly. Let’s see the Brewers make the playoffs back-to-back years, then I’ll be a believer.
Cubs own the division? Cards have won central 10 times. Cubs 5, Brewers 2.
Cubs own division? Cards have won central 10 times. Cubs 5, brewers 2. Yeah you own it.
I’m fairly certain his comment won’t hurt their cause as well.
“Cubs own the division”.. haha. See Cardinals over the past two decades.
Yea but that was yesterday. Two decades really who cares.
Cardinals have not even made the playoffs the past 3 years and they have not won a playoff series in who know how long. Cubs even spanked the Cardinals in the playoffs last time the Cardinals dared to even enter the post season and because of the Cubs in particular St. Louis has not recovered.
One thing we know for sure is that the St. Louis Cardinals, may have owned it in the past, but not only do not own it now, may never own it again. Face it the Cardinals are an after thought. It is only a battle between the Cubs amd Brewers.
“One thing we know for sure is that the St. Louis Cardinals, may have owned it in the past, but not only do not own it now, may never own it again.”
JKB, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this post is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no upvote, and may God have mercy on your soul.
So, I guess that means you don’t agree?
Living in the past my friend.
One year wonders on a crazy fortunate run. If Brewers fans don’t recognize that, they’re dumber than originally thought. They’ll never replicate the stretch they’re on. Ever.
Sounds like the cubs two years ago
Except the fact that the Cubs were in the NLCS the year prior. Brewers are good, but they are still a year away. Sign an ace, then we can talk about who owns the division.
Actually, what Milwaukee is doing is probably the way teams will be moving in the future – eschewing “aces” and bullpenning games – it’s a good strategy, because pitchers are better in shorter outings, generally, – the “third-time-through-the-order” penalty is a real thing – and relievers are cheaper. Milwaukee has at least five elite bullpen arms and a few useful situational guys too. Like it or not, this is the future of baseball. Much credit to Counsell for managing a pitching staff without any good starters to the NLCS. I mean, the only real thing that differentiated the Cubs and Brewers are the bullpens. And while I hate the one-game play-in – too many variables in a single game – the fact is the Brewers are still playing and playing well right now, and a big part of that is the management of the pitching staff.
(And it doesn’t hurt that they got Yelich for nothing last offseason)
Christian Yelich put the Brewers offense on his back in September. He deserves MVP.
That one year wonder team came into your house and put its boot on your throat and watched you cry like the little girl you are. Go fly you’re W.
Dont act like a Cubs fan man..
You mean loyal to their team even after a tough loss? Yea… enjoy the playoff run. It’ll be your last one for the near future.
Bwhahahaha….you keep thinking that.
How does a Cub fan act man
Like they own the league and then they sh*t the bed and can’t even win one of two home games and then tell everybody it was because of injuries. Has anyone seen ray?
Stay classy, Milwaukee. They win one little thing and start thinking they are better than the Cubs and Cards.
This year? They are. And they can stay that way for a few years. Yankees fans are douches by definition so you don’t have much room to talk.
They are not better they got lucky. Thats it.
Never said they were better than the cardinals but yes better than the cubs. Scoreboard
Yes the world needs more internet trolls.
Don’t know Goober…how about checking out Brewer articles?
All you need to know about Brewer fans is that with their team currently in the NLCS, they prefer to troll Cub fans and Cub articles.
So weak!
Dbag
Alex Gordon for Tyler Chatwood? Yes, please.
Just to cloud an already crowded OF? No thanks. I’d do Russell Martin. Trade Caratini in a package for bullpen help.
Plenty of free agents available to solve anyones bullpen problems
Theo, Mr. Overated, always with unlimited budget, throwing money at the wrong guys.
K
Wins a World Series with the Cubs, very overrated
He won world series in Boston, anyone can spend, most would be fired if they had 3 contracts on the books that looked anything like Heyward, Chatwood, and Darvish. Keep sippin..the koolaid..
Heyward was wanted by many other teams, Darvish is not a bad contract yet.
Keep changing the goal posts. First it was the 108 years thing, now with that put to rest all you’ve got is spending? Wow red you ignorant.
Do you think the Cubs would get rid of Darvish contract if they could? If you answer yes, it’s a bad contract.
Huh? Contract hasn’t even passed 1/6 of the way there. There needs to be a minimum sample size passed to constitute “bad contract”
You wanting it to be a bad contract, does not make it a “bad contract” guessing you jealous, your team doesnt sign many high priced FA
Good logic…
It was a bad year for Darvish. I never thought he had as much upside as many people did and begged for the resigning of Arrieta. That said I think Yu will produce something before this contract is up. Realistically low double digits in wins and a high 3s ERA. He can still be effective.
Heyward actually put together a pretty consistent year, this year. However, most people don’t regularly watch, so they just assume he’s still garbage.
Dude, you trippin. I watch ALL the games, and Heyward is terrible offensively. He barely hits the ball out of the infield, when he’s not popping out with those pathetic HR attempts. We all know everything’s “better” when your half drunk or stoned though. That explains why Cubs fans are so euphoric about marginal/mediocre players on the club.
Compare to his first couple years with the Cubs, yes it was a much better year, but for what he was paid, he was hit garbage and they could have gotten that production for league minimum as it was barely that of a 5th outfielder.
I mean, you have to figure they already knew the last two years were going to be bad, with the first one a wash that’s now 50 percent of the contract that is bad best case scenario.
That’s like saying “my dog has hip issues, skin infections and parasites which cost me a fortune, but, hey, no kidney disease and he can still catch a frisbee with the best of them,”
I watched a ton of games this year and definitely agree Heyward was better but no where close to the production you would expect for his dollars
Darvish has always been good-to-great when healthy. He had an injury season – it might become a chronic thing going forward, or maybe it was a series of cascade injuries that an offseason might fix. I mea, people aren’t writing off Corey Seager or Kris Bryant because of an injury season.
lol
If only baseball was as black and white as you’re insinuating…
Can’t agree more with that statement
@fasbal
Theo will be in the hall of game. Won several championships with the Red Sox when no one else could do it with the same budgets and wow won it with the Cubs too when no one else could do it for 108 years but ok pal he is overrated if you say so. Hahaha laughing at your lack of baseball acumen
fasbal1, Is your hate as unlimited as Theo’s budget? Cause your throwing it at the wrong guys. Tell Theo, not us.
Definitely not Bailey
a lot of bad contracts
Yu for Shark… who hangs up first
Giants. Yu is signed for 2.5x as long and has an opt-out which means in the event that he comes back to provide surplus value on the contract his team will just lose that surplus value to free agency.
I don’t think either team wants part of that deal. Darvish contract is large, but at least he’s proven to have had sustained success as a decent pitcher. Shark has not.
Blow them up. They are done. Go cubbies 2024
Broken Glass Darvish is joke injured or not,It was lol when the cubs signed him and great in big games too,lol
Theo should tender Russell a contract then trade him. Better than letting him go for nothing
Teams only trade for a player that everyone knows is going to be released if they think they cannot be chosen as a destination. The Cubs only option to trade him is to tender him AND let him play to rebuild value and put the incident further in his past.
Russell is staying to rebuild his value. Off the bench platoon guy
Bringing Sammy Sosa back for next year’s Cubs Convention would be a major coup for Theo and Co.
I only want the dark skinned Sosa back
Dark skinned Sosa only exists in your imagination.
“MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM.”
Damn, Tim, I’m the biggest Harper homer there is, but after 2018 he’s had, dont anticipate him getting anywhere $400M. Multiple player opt outs like JDM, and Heyward, sure; could even see Boras succeed in securing Harper four opt outs — a new player opt out record, but still nowhere near $400M.
Machado is another story, don’t anticipate $400M either, but should be closer.
Look at Darvish last off season he got $126 million and pitched 1/4 of the season. So Harper or Machado who are good for the full season should get 4 times that amount $450 million.
Nobody’s getting that kinda money.
I somehow don’t think the Cubs were expecting to pay $126 million for a 1/4 of the season from Darvish with a 4.95 ERA and negative WAR, but otherwise great logic.
Great logic
Harper had a WRC of 130 and drew 130 walks. He had almost as many walks as hits
Please no Harper. We need smarter hitters and speed. Would love to see a deal for Merrifield. LaMahieu another possibility. Let someone else blow 300 m on Harper
Are you suggesting that A) Bryce Harper isn’t a “smart” hitter, whatever that means and B) That speed is an actual factor in building a ball club? Bryce Harper is about as good of a hitter as you’ll find and NO ONE runs in baseball anymore. Put the ball in the air as hard as possible and throw the ball as hard as possible by guys. That’s the name of the game. Small ball, aside from situational use, has proven ineffective.
Having the resources they do I’m sure they have a lot of ideas up their sleeve. I’m sure they’d like to move a bad contract or two… how about a Schwarber, Heyward and 20m to the Mariners for Haninger?
Mariners hang up.
@thetruth
They hang up huh? Haha ok pal
Oh my God, you’re not serious are you?
I get it… don’t over value your players tho pal…
it’s not really over valuing, it’s just that the Mariners gain absolutely nothing from this, that’s all
They gain two decent players and some power. As opposed to one who isn’t really all that good.
@mmarinersfan
Then say no to the trade. But when some idiot says “hang up” like its an insulting offer how do you back that jerk up?
Only way the Mariners do that is if the cubs take Felix and Cano…
Yeah….no
Surely, you can’t be serious…. Why would they trade a young controllable all star for one of the worst contracts in the league for a defensive replacement and a DH who can’t really hit?
First I look for Yu to make it back in some capacity next year. While I hated him as high as some folks did I do not believe his career is quite over yet. I believe he will be in the rotation next year and though he might have an injury or two it won’t be all year. I think he can still produce 12-15 wins and an ERA in the high 3s. Chatwood for any of those guys mentioned would be a godsend to me. Would like to have Chavez back and Britton and any two of the other guys mentioned would be great for the bullpen. Hope we can sign Harper. I actually believe doing so would allow us to keep our young core and give them one more year to mature. Put Harper in right and do the platoon with Heyward and Almora in center. Except I would give Almora the most playing time against a few righties too. I would keep Shwarber in left. We do need a veteran backup at C behind Contreras. Happ, LaStella and Bote are worth keeping as Bench pieces. We need Hamels back. If we get him and Yu produces anything at all we could have a deep and talented rotation. I think shwarber, Happ and Bote will improve with a little more experience.
We won 95 games. It’s not like we gotta tear it down and rebuild and it’s not like we don’t got talent. We just need more consistent hitting. I don’t really want to see us getting rid of our core. We just need to add a few guys.
As a Giants fan I said this type of statement multiple times two years ago.
But Darth Vader barbecued and ate your ass in space.
Cubs should skip out on Machado and Harper and go after Patrick Corbin, Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, Daniel Murphy and either AJ Pollock or Michael Brantley in free agency. I’m not saying get all of them but any 3 of the 5 is a greater improvement to their roster than one of Harper or Machado for equal or less money.
Cubs don’t need much in the rotation if the think Yu can come back and resign Hamels. I would like them to sign either Britton or Pollock out of that group.
I just hope they don’t do anything too drastic to blow things up and dump off a bunch of guys. We are not desperate, we are not a long way off or needing in a lot of areas. We just need a few guys here and there.
Happ and Russel and maybe Schwarber can go. Kintzler needs to go and they need a real closer or even two.
Corbin would be more of a luxury than a need but getting him would eliminate the need for re-signing Hamels and provide insurance for injury to any other starters considering beyond Montgomery there isn’t much quality starting depth unless the Cubs hang on to Chatwood and hope for the best. Basically instead of adding starting depth, add a top of the rotation guy and push everyone else back.
Please, no Daniel Murphy——it’s funny how perceptions change once you get to see a ball player every day. Flat out, Murphy is a poor baseball player. He really has to hit about .350 to have any value. He is beyond terrible in the field—-no range, very below average at turning a double—he doesn’t dive, he falls down. He is slow on the bases. It was a glaring difference defensive at second base compared to all others that played there.
If you have the opportunity to get Harper or Machado above all the others, you take it. All things equal there is not a team in baseball that would take Murphy or Machado or Brantley over Harper. Being equal I am saying Cubs $30M per year for Machado against, say, Blue Jays $15M per year for Murphy. Yes 30 does not equal 15, but the equation for teams is the same., Though somewhat limited the Cubs budget is probably much different that “most” other teams. The object is to get the best players—and in my opinion Machado is better than Murphy and Harper is better than Brantley or any combination that is listed.
Doubt the Jays will be players in the Daniel Murphy sweepstakes. But I get your point.
@jimmyz
Interesting take. I like Corbin but I do not see him fitting. Ottavino Murphy and Brantley sound good.
Corbin would not alleviate the Cubs option on Hamels as Corbin is not going to sign before the option deadline so you cant risk it.
Appears they have spent a boat load of $$ and have a thin bull pen. This team is loaded with hitters if they figure it out and the “ Genius” Madden stays out of the way.
If I’m a cubs fan I hope Heyward opts out! Smh that’s a ton of money, for not even being mediocre
Heyward will NEVER opt out. Never. Ever. Ever.
I think the only Cubs fan who doesn’t want Heyward to opt out is Heyward.
If Heyward opted out I would celebrate and thank God in heaven. I just know it ain’t gonna happen. He would never get close to the annual value of this contract anywhere else. Nobody knew he was gonna turn into such a liability at the plate when he was signed.
He’s always been over rated. Agreed he’s one of the very best with the gloves and arms in the game in RF and has all the tools to succeed, but other than in 2012 has he put up numbers close to the hype he receives.
The guy is BJ Upton the 2nd, only he got double what Upton did in FA.
I remember the hype when he came up with the Braves. I remember him hitting the opening day home run against us. I don’t think he ever hit 25 hr or got 100 RBIs did he? I didn’t think his numbers with the Cardinals were worth the money we gave him even if he would have maintained them.
I also believe that the Cubs would be better served signing Bryce Harper over Manny Machado even with the likelihood that Addison Russell has played his last home game on the North Side of Chicago. Harper’s left-handed power bat would play better in the Cubs lineup and would also free them up to trade at least one of their three young outfielders from among Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Albert Almora. My preference would be to keep Almora and deal either Schwarber or Happ with the keeper becoming the regular in LF. Almora and Heyward would share time in CF with the former also acting as a platoon option and late inning defensive replacement in LF.
With Russell gone, Javier Baez becomes the regular SS while Ben Zobrist would then become the primary 2B with David Bote and Tommy La Stella in reserve. Another possibility might also have the Cubs signing free agent 2B D.J. LeMahieu who could provide them with the leadoff hitter they have been missing since Dexter Fowler left for free agency after the 2016 season. LeMahieu has had some worrisome offensive splits with his home stats at Coors Field but he also provides a stellar glove at 2B to pair with Baez at SS. It would be a homecoming of sorts for LeMahieu who began his career in the Cubs organization and made his MLB debut with them back in 2011 before Theo Epstein & Co. made one of their few poor trades when he was shipped to Colorado for 3B bust Ian Stewart. With LeMahieu on hand, Zobrist would then become a super sub in his final contract year, splitting time at 2B and in the OF. The Cubs might also then have the option of dealing another one of their young OF’s and let Zobrist become their main man in LF.
Big no to Lemaheiu. I’d rather keep Murphy. Much smarter (and better) hitter.
Listening to Theo’s postseason press conference closely, Murphy was addressed and Theo responded, almost sidestepped it when asking about interest coming back and said along the line of ‘we’ll have some interest as will American League teams’…..saying that Murphy is really a DH at this point of his career and we can’t live with that type of defense. I would be stunned if the Cubs are actually players in the Murphy free agency.
Theo was very direct in the “offense broke” conversation and a week later Davis is gone. He also preached production over talent so watch for Schwarber/Happ to be at least talked about. Also mentioned “feelings of the fan base” so the Russell thing will be up in the air for a while. I think they would prefer to keep him, but the image may open conversations on him, as well.
Murphy needs to be a DH which doesn’t work for the Cubs in the NL. The team is better served with plus defense up the middle which LeMahieu would provide at 2B along with C Willson Contreras and SS Javier Baez, along with Jason Heyward and Albert Almora in CF. LeMahieu is still only 30 and his bat would work just fine atop the batting order if he could approach his career .298/.350/.406 triple slash numbers.
LeMahieu might also come fairly cheap with a glut of free agent 2B this offseason and few contenders in need of one. The Cubs could also roll the dice on a comeback season from another 2B FA in Brian Dozier.
Epstein knows more than I, but all common sense leads to Lemahieu being the best fit for the Cubs this offseason on offense. .The only real vacant positon on the team is at 2B and LeMahieu can also bat at the top of the order with fair OBP and decent offensive production. Also his glove added to the infield would make the team very solid defensively. If Maddon gives Schwarber more at bats (bring back the old swing please!) and Bryant and Contreras return to form, the team should be very formidable on offense. I don’t think most fans are completely sold on the idea of big personalities/contracts like Harper and Machado becoming the face of the Cubs. Harper especially just seems to clash with the Cubbie vibe and would mess with the positioning of the OF. Who wants to see Heyward take more playing time away from Almora?
Coming soon to a theatre near you.
Bryce Harper in Clash of the Cubbie Vibe
I’d pay to see that blockbuster!
I think a lot of our problems can be solved if we just keep a few guys on the field longer playing the way they are capable of. Having Darvish in the rotation winning 12 games or more and having KB on the field playing close to his capability comes to mind right off the top. Just those two would automatically improve our pitching and offense by leaps and bounds.
If I’m Theo, I’m not even hesitating in brining back Murphy. This ballclub needs patient, smart, professional hitters that work deep counts.
Have to hold onto guys like him, and add more. Only Murphy, Rizzo, and Zobrist were capable of doing this, this past season.
Nah. Let him go.
My offseason plans
1. Sign Harper
2. Sign Murphy
3. Rebuild the bullpen. Ottavino would be nice
4. Trade an OF for bullpen help. Ideally, find someone to take on Heyward. But, realistically, probably trade Schwarber. Having Harper and Murphy’s left handed bats will offset losing his.
5. Hold onto Russell and let him rebuild his value. He plays great Defense, is still young, and only 2 years removed from hitting over 20 bombs and. nearly 100 rbi’s.
6. Pick up Hamels option. No, I dont want to decline it and try to sign him for multiple years.
Yes, the payroll will be sky high. But, they have the money and it’s time to go all in with this core.
If they don’t get Harper or Machado is like to see them sign Robertson if he’s actually leaving the Yankees, although o don’t think he actually will. If not Britton or Miller although miller looks like he may be in a decline.
Pipe dream with the cubs Crap contacts
The Cubs front office is not keeping Russell, they have been pushing a very wholesome image (Bryant, Rizzo etc) and Russell could not talk that talk, so he’s gone. Astros will probably get him, because apparently coveting abusers is a-ok in their eyes. Cubs coveting Chapman would not have happened today.
only way Astros dont 3peat is if the Cubs get Harper Machado AND Kershaw
The only way the Astros 3peat is if they win another eight games this season. They seem to be in the exact same spot the Cubs were last season at this time.
As a Cubs fan what I saw is that chatwood was a waste of money, darvish was just injured so I’m hoping he’ll be good in 19. Chatwood was healthy all year but did not pitch well at all. Heyward hasn’t been hitting well since last year. Bryant had a horrible year and declined a 200 million dollar contract?? We should go after Andrew Miller or Craig kimbrel. Harper is good but too expensive so not worth it. Cubs should really focus on the bullpen and hire a new hitting coach a good one.
Bryant had a horrible year? He was 19% better than the average major-league hitter. Yes, he was hurt and missed some games, but “horrible” is hyperbole. He was still quite better than average. And of course he’s turning down the extension; he remembers the service-time manipulation in 2015.
If Bryant stays healthy he’s looking at the same kind of deal Harper/Machado are in line for… So of course he’s turning down an extension at this point unless he’s a complete dunce
A lot of people are reading too much into an unsubstantiated rumor that even if true means nothing besides Bryant’s not a fool
Not good enough, not consistent enough. His (Bryant’s) swing is a mess, and if he doesn’t adjust to pitchers he’ll lose his job to Botte or whoever they sign to take over 3rd base.
I’ve had this argument with a friend of mine who’s a cubs fans, and this article agrees with him that signing Harper and moving Heyward to center would be a good idea. That seems insane to me. Yes, Heyward had a better season offensively this year, but it still want great, and we know his primary value comes from his elite defense. But he’s only an elite defender in right field. He’s an average at best center fielder. It makes no sense to sign harper, and downgrade yourself defensively at two positions. You could sign pollock, ottavino, and dozier and combined they would cost less than harper, and you’d have a much better team. It seems like a no brainer to me.
If you sign Harper, he goes to left field—-with Heyward signed for another four years and Harper for 10-12 there is no need/room for Schwarber. And in left field, Harper is a little less of a defensive liability.
Harper is a jerk and Machado is a dirty player! Pass on both!!
I dunno, with all these 1B moving to CF (Canha, Bellinger, Gallo) to keep their bats in the lineup, having Harper there isn’t that bad an idea and Heyward there works fine too.
Firing Chili Davis was warranted – a great start to the offseason IMO. Let’s chart a course, shall we?
Sign DJ LeMahieu (maybe 4/50 w/ an opt-out after 2 years?)
Bad Contract Swap – Chatwood for Russell Martin
Either excercise Hamels option, or offer 2/30 so that the Rangers are on the hook for the extra 6mm
Sign Adam Ottavino or Andrew Miller
Sign a reclamation project like Kelvin Herrera or Trevor Rosenthal to a low AAV/high incentive pact
Trade for a guy like Hunter Strickland
Lastly, and perhaps least popular – dangle Happ and/or Schwarber in trade. Both of those guys feel like future Rays – maybe we can offer those guys for either a guy like Banda + a top 100 MiLBer?
Chatwood for Martin? Good luck convincing the Cubs to do that. As a Jays fan I’d be all for it. Nothing against Martin, the Jays need a pitcher.
I think if the numbers were right (e.g. balancing the dollars, which are sunk anyways), Martin would make a decent backup and good veteran voice for the clubhouse.
I like that deal, but Rays need to add a couple more pieces. Banda and Wander Franco though? Hmm
I’d love to get a guy like Snell or Honeywell, but that’s likely out. I’d absolutely shoot for Honeywell + Franco, though.
Good year again by Lester.
I can see Harper as a Cub.
goo.gl/images/4dhRiQ
What about Adbert Alzolay? Any chance of him opening the season in Chicago?
No. Needs more work at AAA.
Your discussion section on the rotation seems to have ignored a guy by the name of Cole. I think the Cubs either pick up the option or sign him to a 2-3 year deal. That make a major change in the rotation that you are analyzing.
In one of those who hangs up first series what if the idea were floated for the Yanks to acquire Darvish for Ellsbury and Sonny Gray? Clean swap. It kind of makes sense for both teams. The Yanks take on about $50M additional salary (in total), which affectively gets them Darvish for 5 years and $50M and perhaps achieve some surplus value from that. I think of it like this since Ellsburys $45M is pretty much a sunk cost.
For the Cubs, they win too. Save face and move on from Darvish quickly, Ellsbury could be a 4th OF off bench and Gray on paper would pitch well over there and he is only on a 1 year contract.. Plus the Cubs free up $50M to spend elsewhere.
Just a thought…
It wasn’t a good one. Yanks aren’t getting Darvish in a salary dump, Cubs do not need to “move on” from him either.
Why not throw in Hayward also. Its a thought but that’s all. Theo dug a hole that it will take 5 years for the Cubs to climb out of with the Haywood, Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood signings. Couple the bad signings with having the 2018 version of Billy Martin managing and 95 wins was a minor miracle. Here’s my suggestion: resign everyone who was on the roster at the end of the year (Hammels and Murphy especially) and then hope that Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood do enough for some not too bright GM to give a bunch of 20 year olds for one or all of them.
Play Schwarber every day and see if he can hit lefties. And most important the first time Maddon uses 8 pitchers in one game fire his ass.
Heyward can opt out this year or next year. It’s not even a bad contract.
Quintana is questionable as to whether to pick up the option, he’s no ace, only does well after pitching behind an ace ala Sale. Could sign and trade Quintana for someone like sonny grey, Cubs have too many injured starters for 2019, somewhat like dodgers a few years ago. I’d pick up hammels option, one can never have enough starting pitching. The cubs could always trade hammels, if he learns to adapt after going four and o, and the cubs fall out of the pennant race next year.
Signing Harper or machado would give the cubs murders row, but the downside is with injuries and the window to compete. How often would the cubs have the the 3 4 5 slots hitting? Is their window closing like the giants did? Trade and sign high price free agaents only to see a below 500 record?
As for Maddon, Maddon did bring the cubs the ws, his shelf life should be longer than run out of town. The Cubs have been very competitive during his tenure.
Quintana’s contract is still valuable. Only 4.5 MM AAV to be counted towards staying below luxury tax line.
Hamels AAV is 23.5 MM. That may be a reason they don’t pick up the option.
Now the Cubs may not be too worried about the luxury tax now If so, so be it.
Its only a 20mm option. Theo and Cole expressed returning. Its a smart thing to have him return. Option chatwood to triple a for a while. If he does well enough call him up in September.
You’d be amazed how many people want Maddon fired. Their main reason is he changes the lineup every day. They also wanted to trade kris Bryant and keep David bote.
Alot of them said MVP Baez should have been traded as well. Traded after winning it all in 2016.
citizen: “Could sign and trade Quintana for someone like sonny grey, Cubs have too many injured starters for 2019,”
You do realize that since the White Sox took Jose Quintana out of the bullpen and inserted him into their rotation in May of 2012 he has never missed a start? That amounts to 215 consecutive games started in less than 7 full seasons and includes 4 consecutive years of at least 200 innings pitched on the South Side from 2013-2016. Sonny Gray only matched “Q’s” durability in his first two seasons as a full time starter in 2014 and 2015. Since then, not so much.
Adam Ottavino would seem to be the guy that Theo should pursue! His strikeout numbers are like a video game!
The lack of offense is a product of Theo’s adopted philosophy to hitting (launch angle). Situational hitting with runnrers in scoring position goes out the door with most of the hitters trying to yanks balls over the fence. Pitchers around the league know what the Cubs want to do at the plate, and have adjusted. This is how Bryant got hurt with his batting approach of trying to twist and turn on every pitch to get underneath the ball and drive it. It’s also why his numbers are down. It’s not magic (this ain’t Hollywood, Cubs fans), everything is cause and effect.
I do agree with much of what you say but in the case of Kris Bryant he actually hurt his shoulder sliding head first into second while stealing a base on May 19th in Philadelphia. He played through it but the injury was what impacted his swing. He compensated for the discomfort and he was eventually placed on the disabled list for the first time in his MLB career on June 26th due to shoulder inflammation.
Pick up Hamels Optom
Sign Strop to 4 year deal
Possibly re-sign Murphy.
Trade Happ, Russell(as much as I hate to see this)he’s innocent but he’s gonna be a distraction and get pitching for them.
Heyward recently bought a house in chicago he wont opt out anytime soon
Buy out Kinzler as he cost the Cubs the division in game 163 which should have never happened.
Russell is innocent?
Good thing he did not write that at the top of this comment thread
Yes they have yet to prove anything. Because of the om going investigation they suspended him. He did nothing wrong but its a serious thing they couldnt let it go unpunished. No matter what he was gonna get some kind of suspension
I’d stop short of saying he did nothing wrong. I wonder if you read the post from his ex. I don’t believe I’ve been more convinced by something I’ve read in print in my life. He has already been suspended. Did nothing wrong is at the least inaccurate. .
Wow, for once I can honestly say, everything touched on in this article is well informed, spot on stuff that I agree with and that make complete sense with the team’s current affairs.
I’d like the Cards to trade for Russell, really think they need his defense. He deserves a chance in my opinion. There’s always 2 sides to every story and it’s very easy to jump on the bandwagon without knowing the full story. Cubs need a young arm under control so a straight swap seems realistic.
Cards have zero prospects the Cubs would want. No thanks. A change of scenery would be good. It wont happen within the division. I’d rather he have a great year off the Cubs way away from the nl central. Maybe the AL West.
My personal opinion would be to
■Trade (if possible)
Russel
Montgomery
Almora
Heyward
Happ
■Pick up the option on
Hamels
Strop
■Resign
Murphy
■Sign
Patient left handed bat
Epstein knows more than I, but all common sense leads to Lemahieu being the best fit for the Cubs this offseason on offense. .The only real vacant positon on the team is at 2B and LeMahieu can also bat at the top of the order with fair OBP and decent offensive production. Also his glove added to the infield would make the team very solid defensively. If Maddon gives Schwarber more at bats (bring back the old swing please!) and Bryant and Contreras return to form, the team should be very formidable on offense. I don’t think most fans are completely sold on the idea of big personalities/contracts like Harper and Machado becoming the face of the Cubs. Harper especially just seems to clash with the Cubbie vibe and would mess with the positioning of the OF. Who wants to see Heyward take more playing time away from Almora?
Is LeMahieu with a .229 avg / .277 obp away from home the best option though?
Non-tendering Russell is a given. I’ll take Machado over Harper anyday. He stays healthy and has 4 seasons 5 WAR or higher Harper has 1. Yes, Machado has had knee injuries, but he doesn’t get slowed in season like Harper does. Machado has also cut his K/rate and increased his walk/rate. His underlying numbers just continue to improve. Move Bryant to LF full-time, trade Happ, and possibly Caratini, Schwarber becomes the 4th OF in a rotation of Bryant, Almora, and Heyward. Zobrist moves to 2nd with Bote as a potential platoon. Heyward in CF platoon isn’t going to fly with his contract and with his offense rebounding a bit last year. I’m hoping they can trade for a decent pitcher. Not sure what it’d take to get DeGrom from the Mets on a FA year.
Also, I’m tired of the argument of “potential”. It’s old as can be these days and not every player will reach their potential and many may only show flashes of it and may put it together for a single season. Matt Kemp is a great example he realized his potential for 1 season got a 160 million dollar deal than never lived up to it. Same with the Ellsbury contract in New York. Potential is fun to dream about but it doesn’t always play out.
You are assuming that another team won’t step up and offer Manny Machado an opportunity to play his prefered position of SS rather 3B, like maybe his favorite club in the Bronx? You are also assuming that Kris Bryant will become a competent enough corner outfielder when he has already established himself as a fine 3B, exceeding most expectations as a professional.
By trading Ian Happ and relegating Kyle Schwarber to 4th outfielder status who will be supplying the Cubs with the left-handed power bat they need to balance out their lineup other than Anthony Rizzo? Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist? lol
I love Manny Machado as a player and as a third baseman. But I’d rather keep Bryant at the hot corner and see the Cubs sign his pal Harper to play RF. Machado might be a little more consistent with his WAR than Harper which has a lot to do with health and his defense at 3B. But at their respective similar ages I’d bet on Harper’s stock as a power hitting/OBP machine in RF over Machado, especially if he insists on playing SS.
Harper may have only had one WAR season over 5 but it was historical one at 10.0 and generated almost exclusively with his bat. If the Cubs could keep him relatively healthy I believe Harper will put up monster numbers with Bryant and Rizzo accompanying him as a threesome in the heart of the lineup.
Btw-In addition to Harper’s 10.0 WAR season in 2015 he also posted a 5.2 metric in his 2012 rookie year. He also put up a 4.7 WAR in 2017 despite only playing in 111 games that year. As I said before, keep him healthy, pair him up with Bryant and Rizzo and many more 5+ WAR seasons will be guaranteed over the duration of his blockbuster deal.
Jacoby Ellsbury had a 9 WAR season too…. So yeah. Not buying the potential argument here. Harper gets hurt, a lot and it tends to slow him considerably. Give me the guy that has a history of health and being there down the stretch. Also injuries mount over the course of a career. Harper’s propensity to be injured just makes him a liability. Personally I don’t really care for Harper either.
Machado wouldn’t play SS in the Bronx Didi is too good there and Torres can play there too if needed. He’d end up at 3b and Andujar would probably be traded, become a utility player, or flip to 1b if they don’t trust Voit’s breakout. Defensively he is a liability at SS, Though he is fantastic at 3b and better defensively than Bryant. Bryant has the tools that Madden has played him in every outfield position. I don’t worry about Bryant in the outfield if he’s getting his reps.
Machado could at least start the season as the Yankee SS with Didi Gregorius scheduled for TJ surgery, especially if it was the tipping point to sign him as a FA. From there on, who know? Alex Rodriguez was clearly the better defensive SS when the Yankees signed him but he moved to 3B so that Derek Jeter could remain at the position.
Aside from the Cubs need for a left-handed power bat they would also benefit from Bryce Harper’s prolific ability to reach base. Machado is a great hitter but most of his OBP is generated from his BA, just like his pal Albert Almora. The trio of Harper, Bryant and Rizzo would not only be fearsome with their SLG but also from their ability to generate extremely high OBP’s.
Like I said Machado is walking more each year. I do see the need for a left handed bat and would like to see a short term deal reached with Murphy to solve that issue. I think Caratini is gone just because he proved he could start this year. No idea where he goes but that will hurt because he is a switch hitter. Marwin Gonzalez might be fun due to his utility and his history with the Cubs. Asdrubal Cabrera manning 2b would be an option too. Maybe the Cubs keep Happ. I think he does get traded.
Honestly if I was the Yankees I may try to play Machado at 2b and Torres at SS. At least try it in Spring training.