The Rockies hold the distinction of making arguably the single most aggressive deployment of the qualifying offer. Back in 2014, they extended one to aging corner outfielder Michael Cuddyer after an injury-limited season. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he declined it — a QO wouldn’t be accepted by anyone until the following offseason — and not long thereafter signed with the Mets, leaving the Rox with a first-round pick for their troubles.
These days, teams are generally less willing to go out on a limb with the QO. For one thing, we’ve seen several players decide they’d rather take the sure payday for one season of work than roll the dice on landing a big, multi-year deal. For another, teams have less to gain for their risk under the modified QO rules.
So, where does that leave the Rockies and free-agent-to-be DJ LeMahieu? The 30-year-old has been a steady presence for the Colorado organization, holding down the second base job on a regular basis for the past five seasons.
Defense has always been the calling card for LeMahieu. He has at times graded as one of the best defenders in the sport. And he did so again in 2018, with both DRS and UZR boosting his scores after three years of merely above-average ratings.
While he has produced at about ten percent below league average with the bat in three of the past four seasons, the outlying campaign (2016) saw LeMahieu post a stellar .348/.416/.495 slash. And he was able to drive a career-high 15 balls out of the yard in 2018.
Though his walk rate fell a bit, and LeMahieu ended with only a .321 OBP, it’s worth noting that he managed only a .298 batting average on balls in play. That’d be normal for most players, but DJLM has a long history of carrying much higher numbers. In the majors, his career BABIP is .343. This does seem tied to his dinger boost, as LeMahieu hit far more flyballs (29.5%) than ever before. It’s fair to wonder, then, whether LeMahieu will ever be able to deliver much power while also delivering his core skill — an abundance of solid contact and a lofty batting average — at the plate.
All things considered, it’s not as if LeMahieu doesn’t have his strengths on offense. He’s fourth in all of baseball in batting average over the past four seasons, after all. And the glove is good enough to support him regardless. If you believe UZR, he’s a 2-win player who topped out at 4.4 fWAR in 2016. By measure of DRS-applying rWAR, however, LeMahieu is more a 3-win annual performer who has topped five WAR at his peak.
The Rockies do have some options to fill in. Garrett Hampson has always hit in the minors and had a nice first taste of the majors in 2018. Ryan McMahon has struggled in the bigs but could also be a factor. And top prospect Brendan Rodgers is nearing MLB readiness even as Trevor Story blocks him at shortstop.
Of course, there are loads of second basemen to be found on the market. That hurts LeMahieu’s outlook and makes it likelier he’d accept. Paying him $17.9MM for a single season may be reasonable, in theory, but it’d also severely constrain the club as it seeks other improvements. While the Rockies could land a first-round pick if he rejects it, that’d only occur if LeMahieu secures at least a $50MM contract.
As ever, the decision boils down to what the Rockies believe LeMahieu thinks of his market. If the team expects he’ll reject the QO, issuing it is a no-brainer. If that’s unclear, the question becomes whether the team finds it palatable to imagine him accepting.
There are a lot of factors, but ultimately it’s a yes/no proposition whether to extend the qualifying offer. What do you think the Rockies ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)
seanm
I would just sign him into 3-4years deal.
natsfan3437
They don’t have the luxury. He’ll cost somewhere between 15-18m a year and have arenado, and story to think about as contracts coming up. And they also need to resign para this year. They already have an in-house replacement for him with their top prospect.
Slevin
Prediction..Arenado gets dealt at sometime before the deadline.
zwmartin
I’ll bet my kingdom he doesn’t get anything close to 15-18 per on any multi year deal. Away from coors he is absolute garbage.
Poundsy24
The Coors effect doesn’t work on a contact player…
darkstar61
Career .330/.387/.448/.835 at Home, .264/.311/.362/.673 while Away
So much for that theory
Senioreditor
Arenado’s splits are equally terrible.
darkstar61
Nolan is .320/.374/.609/.984 Home, .263/.318/.469/.787 Away, for anyone interested.
Unlike DJ though, I will say that he is at least a well above average road player when combining that still solid away line with his Defense.
zwmartin
Because the coors OF is so big, it is actually perfect for contact guys. Little dinkers find holes. Singles becomes doubles. Etc. so, yeah. Maybe don’t comment on things you have no idea about.
Arnold Ziffel
While DJ has had a very good career for Rockies, imho they need to let him go as money is needed at c, of , and rp. Hampton and Rodgers are both ML ready.
hiflew
Rodgers is not yet ML ready and HAMPSON is probably nothing more than a back up at the ML level. Before, DJ, the Rockies franchise had a black hole at second base. Aside from one season of Eric Young Senior, the Rockies 2B was filled with a mishmash of has-beens from other organizations (Lansing, Matsui, Todd Walker, Scutaro), and AAAA/utility guys from the Colorado farm system (Butler, Barmes, Mejia, Gonzalez).
DJ has not only had a very good career for the Rockies, he is by far the best 2B in franchise history. I don’t think I am ready to give him up for even a chance to fall back to the garbage at the keystone that this franchise was known for for its first 25 years. At the very least he is worth a qualifying offer. Even if he accepts, there is no such thing as a crippling one year contract. And DJ is still a very good player, maybe not at his peak like in 2016, but still very good.
jbigz12
I don’t understand how you can write off Hampson as a backup. He’s done nothing but hit in the minors. Shown great plate discipline and has elite speed. All those tools transition well to a starting role. He’ll likely never be as good as LeMahieu defensively but he certainly has a higher ceiling offensively. There’s other positions on the team with worse options that Hampson. They don’t have a lot of cash to spend, I wouldn’t be extending one.
hiflew
You are right, I shouldn’t write him off so quickly. However, I did use the word probably. I don’t know why, but he just doesn’t feel like a solid big league player. He could surprise me, I have definitely been surprised before. I once thought Garrett Atkins was going to make the Hall of Fame one day, so I can definitely be wrong.
its_happening
Hampson has raked in the minors. Going to a park like Coors Field certainly helps his case of being a contributing starter.
jbigz12
I can’t believe anyone said yes.
lowtalker1
I can. Especially the first guy that said yes
JKB 2
I cant believe anyone said no
#Fantasygeekland
I say yes if they feel like there’s a chance he rejects it. I wouldn’t want him to accept, but I’ll take the chance of a slightly under water contract for a real chance at a first round pick.
jbigz12
If you offer him a QO I can’t see anyway he doesn’t accept it. He’s been a below average hitter in Colorado 3 of the last 4 years. He plays a good defensive second base but you can’t pay him 18 million for that. It’s like zack cozart last year. You have a capable 2B option in the minors in Hampson/Rodgers and maybe even McMahon. The team doesn’t have a ton of cash to play with. They could definitely allocate it better.
ray_derek
Absolutely not
Houston We Have A Solution
What do you think about the brewers signing him in the off season?
Probably would increase their chances of getting past the cubs.
mmarinersfan
Seems like they can do it without DJ.
andrewgauldin
They have schoop to play second.
simschifan
Would fit the Cards better, but will they pay him?
papa fraunch
Cardinals already have a second baseman much better than DJ
Houston We Have A Solution
Should QO, try to work out an extension, and trade Rodgers and/or Hampson for some pitching.
Maybe you call up the Tigers about trading for Fulmer and Nick Castellanos. Arrenado certainly is not resigning. Maybe you trade Arrenado and replace him with Castellanos or pick up someone cheaper like Maikel Franco or trade for a cost controlled 3B in Eugino Suarez who the Reds can cash in on and make room for their guys coming up, could also inquire about picking up Iglasias/Hughes for pen purposes.
mmarinersfan
Oh yeah, none of that is happening.
powerslave777
1995 called, they want their comment back. Any suggestion of “trade hitter for pitching” didn’t watch an inning of Rox ball this year
Houston We Have A Solution
2017* when the red Sox traded yoan moncada for Chris sale. But you tried. Or 2016 when the Sox traded Manuel margot for Kimbrel. 2017 when cubs traded eloy Jimenez for Quintana. Yankees traded Fowler Mateo for gray.
Yeah trading hitters and top prospects for elite pitching clearly is dead. Not like we’ve seen 5 even 10 examples of hitters being traded for high end pitching last 4 years- gleyber Torres for Chapman also comes to mind. Francisco Mejia for brad hand. Clint frazier for andrew miller.
johnrealtime
I’m pretty sure he is saying that the current rockies aren’t the rockies of old and they have much better pitching now
1fifth2fifthRed5thBlue5th
But the rockies pen was decent. Middle of the pack in terms of results according to fangraphs, horrible LOB % though. Also, you can never have enough pitching. Its the most volatile position in baseball. Look no further than the mets if you need an example of how fast pitching can go bad.
JKB 2
Extension and trade Rodgers? Heck no!
darkstar61
So trade the cheap longterm solution at the position to keep the expensive one who is already a poor hitter on the road (.264/.311/.362/.673) and about to try and cross the 30yo hump without becoming the next Jason Kipnis?
I fail to see that logic at all
strostro
Replacing the best defensive 3B in the league for a terrible defensive 3B isn’t a good idea
Lance
it’s all about $$$. colorado would of course rather keep arenado and others but their offensive numbers are inflated because of coors. do you pay them as well or better than others because of defense?
Houston We Have A Solution
Colorado isnt signing arrenado to a manny machado Bryce Harper type deal. He’s gone next year. Youre not gonna beat the Dodgers who are getting back seager and reset their luxury tax threshold to spend this off season.
Arizona giants and Rockies should look to retool/rebuild. Rockies can retool by trading arrenado. Possibly attach a prospect or 2 to Ian Desmond see if the Orioles will take the contract
darkstar61
You’re advocating trading the cheap concensus top prospect with 6 seasons of control to keep the expensive completely stadium created guy who is quite possibly about to fall off the age cliff this upcoming season
Meanwhile you are advocating trading other producing players for prospects because you feel the team should be rebuilding because of the division.
Making up your mind would be nice as you are showing yourself nothing but a bottle of illogical contradiction (or a person who just likes to hear himself talk, regardless what they are saying) at this point
Houston We Have A Solution
1. The rockies have a plethora of infield talent aside from Rogers they have Welker, Hampson, Vilade, Nevin, Vavra all within their top 20. Using Rodgers in a deal to acquire an elite pitcher like Noah Syndergaard or Jacob Degrom or Michael Fulmer and looking to extend them early with the money theyd save by trading Arrenado retools the Rockies.
2. Eugino Suarez is signed to a team friendly deal roughly 11 mill per year for the next 5 years; the Reds need to make room for Senzel. Trading Arrenado who has 1 year and would bring back a good haul and looking to acquire Suarez or Franco, who franco would be cheaper to acquire and philly needs room for kingery and crawford, and comes with 3 years not only retools them but saves them $$$- see above for what theyd do with with money.
3. Clearing Ian Desmonds money off the books opens up to fill other needs. They have 1B options in Valaika, McMahon, could use Holliday, or trade cheap for someone like CJ Cron or Ryon Healy.
4. I said QO Lemehieu and try to extend him. I didnt say toss a ridiculous contract at him. If someone does great get the draft pick.
Idk if you know what retooling is, but ill simplify the idea for you in case its “too complicated” for you to follow this time.
1. Trade Arrenado get GOOD prospect haul. NO STAY LONG TERM. 1 year then GONE. Get prospects. GOOD prospects.
2. Trade for a cheap MLB replacement for Arrenado like Franco or Suarez. CHEAP REPLACEMENT- guy to play 3B. THIRD BASE.
3. Trade Rodgers in a deal for an elite pitching prospect to anchor the staff- use money saved from Arrenado to extend ace. GET REALLY GOOD PITCHER. REALLY GOOD.
4. Clear more money off Desmonds contract. Use in house replacement at 1st OR trade for cheap 1B like Cron (2 years) or Healy (4 years)- use money saved on Desmond for Degrom, Syndergaard, Fulmer extension. GET RID OF LOT OF MONEY 1B- FIRST BASE- GET CHEAP 1B- FIRST BASE.
5. Improve bullpen with money saved.
Hope simplifying the idea of retooling helped you.
darkstar61
So dramatically decrease the offense, defense and farm system to add high priced pitching they don’t even need (3rd best NL club this season despite high priced BP additions struggling) and a glut of likely quickly unwanted contracts going to fillers and aging guys …all in hopes of having maybe a one year window where they might possibly be able to compete if everything breaks perfectly?
And this downgrade of the team in hopes to catch lightning only happens if the magical fantasy stuff like “just trade Desmond, then just trade for DeGrom and extend him longterm, then just trade for yadayada” all somehow takes place exactly as desired (apparently the other clubs have no say in the matter and will do whatever the trades Rockies want)
Should have stuck to your contradictions; you’re explication only made it worse
Houston We Have A Solution
“Dramatically”
.297/.375/.561 For arrenado- roughly 20 25 mill a year contract
OR
.286/.366/.526 For Suarez at 11 mill
.270/.314/.460 For Franco at arb prices. “Dramatically decrease offense.” lol.
Also Desmond hit
.236/.307/.422 cron hit .253/.323/.493. Lol dramatically decrease the offense. And cron Grades out better at 1st than Desmond did lol.
Try again. Look stuff up this time. Maybe you dont know how to use baseball reference or fangraphs. Learn fast.. Suarez posted the same OPS+ arrenado did and graded out as a good defender 2 years ago posting arrenado type grades. And cron hit better and played better defense than Desmond. And cron could be cut by the rays
darkstar61
Suarez by season
86 wRC+ (1/2yr)
106 wRC+ (1/2yr)
93 wRC+
116 wRC+
135 wRC+
Franco by season
129 wRC+ (1/2yr)
92 wRC+
76 wRC+
105 wRC+
Arenado by season
77 wRC+
113 wRC+
121 wRC+
126 wRC+
129 wRC+
132 wRC+
Well hey at least in that 1 career year, one of the two hit something anywhere near the range Nolan consistently puts up – that clearly means there is guaranteed no dropout at all! …Facepalm…
That is before we even get to the similarly dramatic drop in Defense this move means as well
Then, again, and most importantly, you continue to repeat these nonsensical fantasies where teams are going to trade guys to the Rockies despite no indication they would move them at all, and apparently they will do so for not much return going back their way. This is especially interesting in the case of Suarez, who the Reds just gave a 7 year team friendly contract to for a reason (but apparently now will give him to Colorado for no reason other than you need it for your fantasies to not be considered insane dribble)
Similarly you have teams magically taking Desmond and his contract, trading aces to the Rockies, star players signing longterm deals instead of going into Free Agency, multi-million longterm deals to average-at-best and turning-30 middle infielders working out great (despite all evidence saying the opposite will probably transpire) plus depleted their farm and added pitching they don’t even need – because you really, really thought this out!
As I said before, should have just stuck to the inconsistencies as your forced exploration is pure nonsense
Out of place Met fan
No need for a QO, not in a market flush with options. 2B availability, and lack of need will make for opportunistic buyers late. I believe the trade market will also find depressed returns because of the many options.
JKB 2
QO gets him for one year if he accepts. That is better than trading for one? And who are you trading for? Who are you trading? You then want to trade prospects and block Rodgers? A one year QO does not
Out of place Met fan
No need to trade for anyone. If a deal that makes sense presents itself sure. But in this market, there will be more then 1 former AS without a job at the end of January.
RedRooster
I think the Padres QOing Ian Kennedy was about as aggressive a deployment of the QO as Cuddyer.
Anyway, on DJLM, how is this even a question? He seems to me like the type of player the Rockies would gladly bring back on a 1-year deal. Even if they have to pay a bit of a premium for it.
zwmartin
Lol this DJ fetish stuff is insane. By far the most overrated player in league. Look at his road splits to see why he’s nothing more than a coors field product and backup infielder in a normal park.
JKB 2
But he does play in Coors Field. So why not offer a QO and try to keep him in Coors for one year
nymetsking
You can sign a non- Coors guy like Murphy for less than the QO on a 2/25ish deal. Pay less, get more.
Lance
because it’s coors, they can find many people who will produce good numbers for far less money.
jleve618
I doubt you could get him that cheap. Also the stark change in defense between the two would be resounding.
jbigz12
I guarantee you could get danIel Murphy that cheap. He’s not coming off a good year at all and there’s plenty of alternatives available. If the Rockies were going to spend money on a 2B I’d grab dozier on a 1 year rebound deal that’d cost you a hell of lot less than 18.
imindless
Let hampson play and sign a pitcher and additional bullpen pieces.
hiflew
Says the Dodgers fan.
Slevin
I actually don’t think he is.
JKB 2
What pitcher? What bullpen pieces?
StlSwifty
I say yes. If he accepts then the rox give it one last go with arenado Blackmon and DJ on the squad. They weren’t far off from the playoffs last year and if for some reason they’re out of contention by the all star break, then you trade him and arenado and stock the farm going forward. If he declines and goes somewhere else, then I say trade arenado while he has max value right now. But with a little help I think the current core can get them to the playoffs if they all play well. Plus DJ and arenado will both be playing for big contracts next year if he accepts the QO.
c1234
Plus they play at Coors
jleve618
You make it sound like you already forgot they were in the playoffs this year. And last year.
StlSwifty
Plus if he declines they get the compensation draft pick.
Draven_X_23
He is not an $18 mil type of player. Even if it is for only 1 season.
Hell I bet you could get Villar from Baltimore for some international slot money if you want a stop gap to let some guys get a bit more experience.
reflect
No. He’s definitely accept it, and that would kill the Rockies.
clarknaddison
Jeff, I’m typically not a critic but this article is poorly written…especially the first paragraph.
JKB 2
The first paragrah I actually had to read 4 times and I am still confused. How did the Red Sox benefit from Cuddyer going from the Rockies to the Mets?
cxcx
I often do critique the prose on here, especially of some of the newer writers, but I didn’t find this article to be that bad. First paragraph was certainly a little awkward but I got through it ok.
pinballwizard1969
I would think LeMahieu jumps on a QO. Just my opinion.
zwmartin
Lol no. Never.
Roll
The mets already made an offer to cuddyer with more guaranteed before the QO deadline passed if i remember right. So was there really a decision to be made?
Poundsy24
LeMahieu is a solid baseball player. Good defense, great contact hitter with a tiny bit of pop. I don’t understand why anyone wouldn’t want this guy on their team? Is he an $18mil/year guy? No… but he’s definitely worth a 3-year deal between $12-$15mil to me. I’d love that guy in my lineup!!! But my Sox need to number crunch for Mookie, Benny, Bogey, Sale already so I’m wishfully hoping a title would allow them to take a discount and start a dynasty… they save $20mil next year letting go of Hanram, another $18mil when Pablo’s contract expires, sooner or later we’ll stop paying Manny Ramirez and that bum in AAA, praying we don’t over pay for Kimbrel, and DEFINITELY some wishful thinking but secretly hoping Price opts out of his contract and resigns to a $20mil/year deal… Betts is gonna be worth minimum $25mil/year but will probably get $30+mil if he wants to leave, Bogey is another $15-$20mil, and I think Benny will be around $20mil as well… and Sale… someone will dump the truck on this guy and he could reset the market but to me he could actually be worth/outperform Price’s contract
Melchez
Red Sox may have some major contract problems next year…. JD can opt out… Xander is a free agent…. Holt is a free agent… Porcello is a free agent… Sale Maybe?
That is a boat load of money to resign them all.
Lance
like Arenado, Blackmon, CarGo, Helton, Walker and dozens of other Colorado players, their offensive numbers are inflated because of Coors.
its_happening
Option A: Desmond and McMahon fill the right side of the infield, probably Desmond at 2B. Use whatever money is left in the budget for other positions.
Option B: Brian Dozier, 1-year deal (if he accepts).
Option C: Trade for a 1B, find another spot for Desmond or McMahon. One of them plays 2B. McMahon is apparently not a good defender. This wouldn’t be a great option.
Will be tough to replace the defense, but they have to think about their team payroll and what’s best for the next couple seasons.
jdgoat
I think Hampson is probably the most likely option.
Melchez
DJ is probably the top 2B in this class… but… if he’s offered a QO, he should take it. On the open market, he might get a 3 year $12 mil offer. Maybe. And it gets real dicey when you add in a draft pick if he refuses the QO.
His splits are terrible. He’s solid defensively… His batting average was decent .276 last year… but .298 lifetime! His OBP was average last year .321 but .350 lifetime. He has never had much power… 15 homers this past year was his highest. Dozier and Descalso are probably the only two that come close to his production.
Another thing is… who is looking for a 2B? The Red Sox? Yanks if they move Torres to short? Dodgers? They could all use an upgrade, but I doubt they risk the $ or the draft pick.
Rockies might try and sign Dozier to an incentive laden contract to try and build his value. He might get a huge boost hitting in Coors and he’s a solid defender. He’d be much cheaper too.
They need to get rid of that Desmond contract… Maybe a trade of Desmond for Sonny Gray? Something.
Pick up the Parra option… Move Blackmon to RF and put Dahl in center.
Sign a veteran 1B and they should be good for one more run.
jbigz12
No way in hell I’d pay Gerardo Parra 12 mil when you could sign a comparable player for half that. Desmond and grays contracts aren’t anywhere near equivalent. No chance. I agree on dozier though. Makes too much sense.
Melchez
Parra is a one year deal, so I thought it would fit their “win now” approach. Anyone else they’d have to sign to a multiple year deal.
Getting rid of Desmond for anything would be good. Take a couple low level prospects… anything.
jbigz12
If you could sign a comparable player to Parra for 2/12 that’s certainly better than 1/12 for Parra. You could decline parra’s option and bring him back for that price. Chisenhall, Jay, Maybin etc all comparable to Parra and could be had for much less as well. Markakis will probably be looking at one year offer too. I’d roll with one of or combo of them first. Or maybe even call up the division rivals in San Diego and try and get Renfroe to play right field. He shouldn’t cost too much in terms of prospects and he’d provide a power bat.
weo
You didn’t need to write this article. No chance!