The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that). As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.
For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering. Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons. The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).
This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason. Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season. Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM. That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.
Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays. Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season. Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.
Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons. Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field. A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.
Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter. After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…
Longshots
- Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season. Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019. The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
- Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell. Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season. I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
- Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade. This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary. That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
- Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint). Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
- Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.
Potential Suitors
- Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix). Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
- Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend. If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
- Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup. Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix. If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
- Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019. Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt. One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
- Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR). Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career. The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup. The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.
Angels Angels Angels. They need to upgrade first base sooooo bad and it requires cutting Pujols. I’m holding on to the long shot of them cutting him after his return to st.louis.
angels will sign another player that can play multiple positions but hits like a 2 day old lamb. just like valbuena.
… “two day old lamb.” Yes.
Moreno gonna sign Pujols to a 10 year extension.
The Angels have cheaper options than Smoke, to play first.
Cheaper sure. Better? Nope
Rockies make the most sense
I don’t think advanced fielding stats are good for first basemen. Smoak May not be the rangiest guy, but I’d argue he’s one of the top first basemen in the league in “picking it”. The errors he saves are way more valuable than the potential extra few balls that become hits over the course of the season.
Absolutely! Smokey is stellar at digging throws out of the dirt. Very calm and confident. He has given the patchwork Jays infield a ton of support over the last two injury filled years. The Jays would have been way worse without his steady glove over at first.
JDGoat this is one of many reasons why some of these “stats” are flawed. Anyone with half an eye can observe how well Smoak has played defensively at 1B during his tenure in Toronto. When numbers in an equation are hypothetical or an estimation you get an inaccurate description. Smoak can D-up.
While I think we can all agree that “scoops” or preventing other errant throws are important, it’s almost impossible to measure them because a)what constitutes a scoop? Is it a throw actually in the dirt, or just low; similarly, other kinds of errant throws – too high, too far to the left or right – are very much dependent on other defenders and have no real comparison aspect, right? I mean, with range it’s easy, especially with all the batted ball data we have now – Smoak (or Hosmer, who is the poster child for this argument) just don’t get to nearly as many balls as the average first baseman – whether that’s grounders, line-drives or pop-ups, they don’t make nearly as many outs as one would expect from a player at the position.
Conversely, scooping has no real “average first base” comparison because it’s such an infrequent event and is so dependent on the actions of other infielders. I mean, Hosmer supposedly saved 18 balls this season, according to some Padres website, that would have been hits or errors because of his “scooping/catching errant throws” ability.. That doesn’t take into account the terrible defense the Padres had at second and third, along with Galvis’ penchant for trying to make plays he can’t make. It’s not really measurable, and there’s no standard. Is 18 a good number? High or low? Because we have no data about this because classifications of throws from infielders don’t really exist, it’s just the “eye test.” And eyes deceive; this is why we have math and science and facts and evidence-based approaches to statistics. Or why we should.
And also, balls that get by third basemen and first basemen are more likely to go for extra bases than balls that get by middle infielders. That’s the real problem with having a first baseman (or a third baseman) who doesn’t field grounders well..
The eye test folks is most important. Did you really need newer stats to tell yourself that Keith Hernandez for example was a great first baseman but had an inferior arm? What stat measured his brain? The fact that he was like having a second manager out there, always thinking ahead.
Smoak to the M’s would be bad. Trade for him when you Non-tendered him a few years ago. Would like to see Wil Myers in a M’s uniform though.
Why does everyone insist on Will Myers, like he doesn’t hit league average as a first baseman, and doesn’t have injury issues, while getting paid way too much for someone who has “produced” results like that?
It seems that the Mariners only employ Athletics castoffs at 1B.
Myers was very durable during the two years he was a first baseman.
Just a heads up, the wrong Josh Bell is linked. I feel like the Pirates could be a “potential suitor” rather than a long shot. Bell only hit 12 homers this year and had a 111 OPS+
Even though he did have a rough season this year, The Pirates probably won’t give up on him after just 2 full season, and one ending with 26 home runs, 90 RBI’s, and a 3rd place NL ROY voting.
bWar better
Agree but still flawed for catchers and first baseman
Gross
What’s missing from the article is Daniel Murphy’s name…especially when it comes to the Yankees, who are missing a middle infielder to start 2019, but will need first base and third base insurance once Didi’s back.
Unlike Smoak, Murphy can be all that. Not a brilliant option at third, but he wold be serviceable even there, if Andujar ended up forcing the Yankees to move him to first.
So, if Murphy wasn’t a free agent, I’d be all on board with the Yanks trading for Smoak. But, for the Yankees at least, Murphy is the first option. He’s probably the first option for a couple of other teams too. Versatility is valuable.
Daniel murphy is better than didi.
That doesn’t even make sense. Murphy isn’t a SS.
It’s pretty clear he’s not really an infielder, never mind a shortstop
When the Smoak clears, some team could end up with a nice upgrade at first base with Justin.
No, just no.
Smoak doesn’t have to clear Waviers in offseason.
*Whoosh*
Who knows where Smoak ends up, the important point is that he ends up somewhere not named Toronto Blue jays.
My guess is the return will be less than anticipated and he stays put.
I can’t wrap my head around the sentiment that Smoak, at age 32 in Dec, is a better option than Voit, at age 27. Voit obviously is unlikely to keep the pace he had over 150 AB in 2018 over a full 600 AB in 2019. However, I don’t think it’s hard to imagine he could rather easily match what Smoak produced in 2018 (.242/.350/.457 with 25 hrs. Factor in the fact that Voit is pre-arbitration whereas Smoak will probably get upwards of at least $5 mil then why exactly is he a better option? Also, fangraphs shows Smoak (-0.8 beats Voit (-.5) in UZR but Voit holding a significant edge in overall Def (Voit @ -3 vs Smoak @ -11). So aren’t we better off giving Voit a shot to hold down 1b for 2019?
Voit only “beats” Smoak defensively because Smoak played many multitudes of innings more at first base. Voit is a bad first baseman.
southbeach – don’t listen to the fake stats. Justin Smoak is a far superior defender than Voit. In fact Smoak’s a better hitter than Voit. Voit’s edge is at the local Olive Garden.
There is ZERO way you can make that statement, I won’t claim that what we saw in 2018 in 150 AB is sustainable but show me numbers…..stats…or at least a logic based argument that Smoak will clearly be better than Voit?
The problem with some fans is that you allow age to be an issue. Voit is NOT a career minor leaguer who struggled to make it to the minors.
Voit was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2013 draft at age 22 after playing a full 4 years @ Missouri. It was the same draft as Judge and Clint Frazier who both went in the 1st round. Voit is only 1 year older than Judge. It took him 2 years longer to make his debut but it isn’t like he didn’t deserve a shot in St. Louis.
@ AA in 553 AB he posted .297/.373/..482 w/ a BB rate around 10% and a K rate of 15% with a total of 20 homers.
@ AAA in 532 AB he posted .314/.398/.532 w/ a BB rate around 10% and a K rate of about 18% with a total of 23 homers.
If those numbers came from a 1st round pick rated as a top 100 prospect then we’d buy into it. The league is filled with guys who were drafted in the later rounds and didn’t have the pedigree of a top 100 prospect.
Does any of that matter as long as he produces? He was blocked at 1B with the Cardinals. He got a chance in NY and now he’s producing. Not expecting him to keep the same pace in 2019 that he had in 2018 but he certainly is capable of matching Smoak’s 2018 production of .270/.350 and 25 hrs.
Never have I seen fans so focused on top 100 list and agism. Who cares if he’s 28 next April? You have control over him for what usually tend to be prime years (28-32) and you have him cheaply. Give him a shot next year and if he flops, you move on. Yanks most certainly will sign a guy like Neal Walker (if not himself) and Bird will most likely end up in AAA. Plenty of replacements if Voit’s 2018 was a complete fluke.
Keep in mind that Cashman spoke glowingly about Voit and stated that the analytics team and in-house scouts loved Voit and had their eyes on him for a couple of seasons. While Cash most likely didn’t expect 15 hrs in 150 AB he certainly isn’t shocked that he’s showing the promise that he has shown. It was the outside critics who thought the trade had more to do with international pool money and that Voit would be AAA filler. It took 9 games in AAA and a struggling Bird to warrant giving Voit his shot.
Let’s pencil him in at 1B, save some money and enjoy the ride..
Until the ride fails
He was old for his levels – that’s why age matters; most players peak around age-27. Voit has skills, and he will almost certainly be a useful player in some capacity, but the number of players who came to the majors at age 27 and became stars is…well…really tiny.
Not to mention that by acquiring Voit, the Yankees rid themselves of Shreve.
Also his defensive problems have been attributed to not being used to the shifts the Yankees use. He may not be as good as Smoak but Smoak isn’t that much better to get rid of prospects for.
You can’t say Voit is a better hitter based off of half a season of AB’s. That’s crazy talk. Wait until pitchers adjust to Voit and then we’ll see if he’s the real deal or not.
Is this a fair trade that both sides would agree to?
Blue Jays send Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, and Russell Martin (plus $14M) to the Rockies for Jon Gray and Peter Lambert.
no.
No. Although I could see a different trade built around Smoak and Gray. Although it probably wouldn’t be the Rockies adding a prospect, it would be the Jays. Ideally, I’d love for Dante’s son to come home, but that is probably not possible. Maybe adding someone like Reese McGuire since the Jays have a higher rated catcher in their system. The Rockies have no need for Martin or Pillar. McGuire and Smoak for Gray could be interesting.
Get Bo’s name outta these talks.
I don’t follow either team with passion but I can’t see the Rockies giving up young pitching assets in Gray or Lambert, despite the blemishes of either in 2018. In general, it’s hard to attract good pitching to Colorado so when you have young cheap pitching (Gray entering his 1st arb year and Lambert still in the minors). why flip it for a collection of 30 or older bats earning about $30 mil on expiring contracts? Rockies already have respectable in-house options. So I say the Rockies hang up firs.
No. There is no rush on dealing Martin. He has 1 more year. Eat the contract and let him mentor the young catchers.
I can see smoak going that way, but if martin went with, it would take eating 75% of his salary which is fine based on having 3 major league ready catchers not named russel Martin in their roster. They wouldn’t get much back, but could be worked with salary and control coming back (gray), and the Rockies and jays have made trades recently, which helps with the fit.
I’d way rather keep Russell for the culture, trade him at the deadline to a contender with a need and shake his hand for the good work.
He’s a great mentor but nowhere
To play, he’d be better served on the astros, or dodgers after they lose grandal.
no Tyler white love when talking Astros?
Colorado makes the most sense by far
The problem is that Bridich doesn’t want to admit that he made a mistake in signing Desmond to a deal as a first baseman. It’s obvious, because otherwise they would have replaced him last season. I don’t know if he will continue to be stubborn this offseason as well. One can only hope he learns from his mistakes, or at least admits this one.
Why would a team ever trade anything for this guy? He’s the best?
The Cardinals could be an option. Matt Carpenter can slide to third and his reasonable salary would allow them to pursue other areas of need.
Have you seen Carpenter throw lately? He’s just not an option at third base anymore.
The Jays will probably be looking at high upside pitching – They got three pitchers who hit 98mph on the gun for Osuna.. Osuna has more years of control but the Jays essentially had to trade him. I would expect the Jays would be looking to acquire a fairly solid package around arms. So whichever team has an abundance of high upside arms will probably be what Atkins covets at this point.
There is no real need to trade Martin but if the Jays eat $15-$16 million clubs should be interest in Martin on a one year deal at $4-$5million. But here as well – the Jays would need a fairly high upside prospect (one) back or he’s just worth it to keep around. Pillar will be on the block as well. Jays have several OF prospects who can serve the position.
After the Rays winning ninety games with excellent offense and defense production out of their 1st base options, Why change anything? Cron, Choi and Bauers were productive and great supportive teammates that are not expensive!! If it’s not broken don’t try to fix it!
If you operate like the Rays then you’re prepared to be opportune. Kinda like Tommy Pham
Will Bird be a major league roster next year?
Yankees AAA.. or traded. They will fill the infield and he will be depth options or traded. Yankees are right into the win now mode.. the money will be spend. No more wait and see
I think the 1B job is Voit’s headed into 2019. Bird will “compete” in name only. My guess is that they send him to AAA to find himself and go from there.
McMahon needs consistent playing time, and nothing more. He has hit at every level and will do so at the MLB level also.
How about an even-money deal built around Matt Kemp and a quality prospect from LA for Smoak, Martin, and perhaps a significantly lesser prospect from Toronto?
Would love to see Russ back in Los Angeles as a backup C and backup 3B, though I admittedly haven’t seen watch him play much the last couple years.
Still frames well.
Not the worst idea ever. I’d like Martin to stay to mentor the young catchers.
I don’t really see the incentive of acquiring Kemp if you’re the Blue Jays. Why not just eat the money and demand better prospect capital
At this moment, Justin Smoak stays where he is. There will have to be some heavy moving for a place to open up for him elsewhere.
Smoak=Oakland
Smoakland?
So then where does Olson play?
I think he will be on the Mets next season. The Mets could trade one of there outfielders for Smoke.
I wouldn’t put trading for Smoak even in the Top 6 moves Cashman needs to look at this winter for OD 2019. Top 5 are: 1st) SP’ing, 2nd) More SP’ing, 3rd) Re-sign either Robertson or Britton. 4th) Sure up the infield Sign Marwin Gonzalez. 5th) Sign Michael Brantley to replace Brett Gardner. 6th) Replace Pitching Coach Larry Rothschild.
Why wouldn’t the Dodgers be a fit? Bellinger can play the outfield for another year….or the Red Sox?
Dave Robertson prefers mult-position players.
Cue up the aforementioned Russel
Martin
In my very very amateur opinion, Josh Bell seemed to be too muscle bound this season and didn’t have the flexibility to make the unique swings to stay alive or get base hits on pitches he shouldn’t have been able to get to that drove his early success.
His bat looked slower through the zone and once he lost the ability to get to those balls he used to be able to make contact with, it disrupted his plate discipline and he started swinging at stuff he never did.
He needs to limber up and come back with a clean head next year. He has more than enough raw strength to hit for power. He has to get back to making contact and plate discipline in order to succeed.
Are Mets rebuilding or already set at 1b? If the latter, who?
Yes let’s spend 8,000,000 on a streaky 240 hitter and 77 RBI’s.
Wait a minute; it’s 2018 and you’re using BA and RBIs still to evaluate value? That’s quaint but teams aren’t really use these things anymore and haven’t in a long time.
Agreed.. so much more
To statistical evaluation, even without advanced stats.. let’s go with WAR and OPS and the eye test on his defence.. paints a different picture. That salary and stats are wanted by a few teams
Yes lets spend 8M on a switch hitting first basemen with 25 HR and an OBP of 350. I will order 9 of those please.
I still firmly believe the Phillies will trade Santana by eating a lot of the money (a resource they have tons of) and even getting a high level prospect back. If the Rays could have Carlos Santana at $5-$10M a year they’d jump on and give something back to boot.
They might non tender CJ Cron, and he’s expected to make 5mil via arbitration. And he hit 30HR last year. And you think the rays would take Santana on?