The chatter started last year as Matt Chapman burst onto the scene for the Athletics. The early returns were impressive. Still, Dave Cameron was seemingly pushing the envelope a bit when he asked in early August whether Chapman could be emerging as a star.
Of course, as Cameron noted, there was plenty of reason to wonder whether Chapman would really be able to hit enough to profile as a true star. The thrust of the post, really, was that his outstanding glovework made Chapman a potentially excellent player even if he only hit around the league average. From that point in the season, moreover, Chapman’s output at the plate faded, leaving him with a solid but unspectacular 109 wRC+ at season’s end.
The overall rookie showing was still plenty promising, no doubt. A quality regular on a league-minimum contract for years to come? Sign any team up, especially one that’s somehow still playing in the O.co Coliseum.
Of course, it still remained to be seen how Chapman would look over a full season in the majors, after opposing pitchers had a chance to adjust. Would his prodigious minor-league strikeout levels be too much to overcome? Would his obvious defensive talent be sufficient to carry him if the bat lagged?
Consider those questions answered. Put most simply: he finished third in all of baseball in position-player rWAR (8.2) and rated among the top ten by measure of fWAR (6.5).
With 2018 in the books, the only question left is how much it’d cost the A’s to lock Chapman in for the long run. It’s a question that was already on the minds of the Oakland brass, as the organization reportedly sought to talk about a deal over the 2017-18 offseason. Unfortunately for the club, Chapman and agent Scott Boras declined the opportunity to discuss a contract at that time.
It could be, then, that discussing Chapman’s value now is mostly an exercise in the hypothetical. But it stands to reason that the A’s will at least try to open the door to talks once again — perhaps with added motivation as they seek to continue the momentum from an exciting 2018 season and keep pushing for a new ballpark. And perhaps Chapman’s camp will show some willingness to consider numbers now that he has set down a marker as a top-end player rather than a target for a cheap pre-arb deal. He is still reasonably youthful, at 25 years of age, but won’t reach arbitration until 2021 and can’t qualify for free agency until the 2024 season — his age-31 campaign.
A lot can change in the meantime, as Chapman’s just-announced thumb surgery underscores. Fortunately, it seems as if there isn’t any reason to think that procedure will represent an ongoing problem; exactly how it could influence the possibility of a deal isn’t entirely clear, though odds are it won’t be a major factor in any direction.
In examining Chapman’s merit as a player, there’s frankly not a ton to discuss regarding his glovework. It’s lauded by scouts and stats alike and there’s no real reason to think it’ll fade any time soon. He’s also a solidly graded baserunner even if he isn’t a threat to swipe any bags. The floor, as has long been suspected, is rather lofty. Those skills won’t really pay in arbitration, which is certainly a relevant consideration in contemplating the valuation of a potential extension, but their value isn’t in question.
The bat is where it’s still interesting to dig in. Even as Chapman’s output sagged some late in 2017, he made a notable improvement in his contact ability. For September and October, Chapman recorded a 21.2% strikeout rate — far superior to what he had shown as a professional to that point. He sustained the improvement in 2018, showing a similar approach to what he exhibited in 2017 but posting a much-improved 8.8% swinging-strike rate.
Even as he put the bat on the ball more often, ultimately carrying a 23.7% strikeout rate that sits barely above the leaguewide mean, Chapman kept producing power numbers. He finished the season with 24 long balls, a .508 slugging percentage, and .230 isolated slugging mark. With a solid 9.4% walk rate chipping in, Chapman managed a .356 OBP.
There’s a lot to like here, clearly. Upping his contact rate clearly didn’t prevent Chapman from making good contact. To the contrary, he posted an outstanding 93.0 mph average exit velocity and 47.6% hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. That said, some of the numbers also suggest some cause for skepticism with regard to the sustainability of Chapman’s output. His on-base numbers were boosted by a .338 BABIP — the first time he cleared the .300 barrier as a professional. Chapman’s average launch angle dipped to 14.7 and his groundball rate jumped to 40.3% (well over his minor-league average), perhaps explaining why Statcast credited him with only a .333 xwOBA — well shy of the .370 wOBA he actually recorded.
Perhaps it’s not a slam dunk that Chapman will produce at a rate thirty percent better than league average for the foreseeable future. But he has already shown more adaptability as a hitter than was generally anticipated and established a fairly significant overall offensive ceiling. If there’s some danger of regression, perhaps there’s also some possibility that Chapman will continue to improve at the plate. Supposing he settles in as a solidly above-average hitter who can’t ever quite fully combine both high-end power and strong on-base ability, Chapman could still easily run off a few more 5-WAR campaigns before he sniffs the open market.
Let’s get down to some salary numbers, then. Chapman largely matched Nationals star Anthony Rendon in output this year and likely has even greater arbitration earning upside with his potential to drive the ball out of the park. Though Rendon benefited from having originally signed an MLB contract, boosting his first arb salary, his anticipated total of around $35MM in total arbitration earnings seems to be a reasonable ballpark tally for Chapman. Of course, Oakland wouldn’t need to begin paying that for a few more years, during which time the club can pay him no more than it does any other player who happens to be taking up an active roster spot. And Chapman also was a bit slower to reach the majors, limiting his eventual free-agent value. Even if we guess he’ll ultimately command $30MM+ annual salaries in his open-market years, there’s a limit to what the A’s in particular would be willing to promise to lock those seasons in.
From a practical perspective, then, there’s reason to be skeptical that Chapman warrants anything approaching a nine-figure guarantee. He certainly would scoff at the kind of deal that he might have been presented with last offseason — say, the sub-1.000 service record deal (six years, $26MM) signed by Paul DeJong after a similarly strong 2017 debut. But there’s a reason that the current record for a player with less than two years of service is still held by Andrelton Simmons, at a relatively modest $58MM over seven years. In short, there’s not a ton for teams in this situation to gain by going wild at this early stage — particularly for players, like Chapman, that aren’t especially precocious.
It seems fair to assume that beating the Simmons deal would represent a bare minimum starting point to capture the attention of Boras, who is a notoriously hard bargainer in early extension talks, in particular. Even handing over control over a pair of free agent seasons for Chapman could, after all, have a monumental impact on his eventual open-market earning capacity. My own guess is that Boras would take aim at some other notable pre-arb targets, even if they were landed for players with more than two seasons of MLB service. The Mike Trout contract (six years, $144.5MM) is assuredly well out of reach, but Carlos Gonzalez showed way back in 2011 that even mere mortal pre-arb players can secure big guarantees (seven years, $80MM).
It might well take something approaching or exceeding that salary level to get Chapman to bite. That’d be an unprecedented payout for a player who hasn’t even recorded two full years of service time, but today’s youthful superstars seem to be holding for such a move in the market. It’s notable, after all, that we haven’t seen a premium all-around player ink a deal at that stage of his career in recent years, with the largest sub-2 extensions of recent vintage being secured by players like Simmons and Christian Yelich before they fully broke out in the manner Chapman has. Here, Chapman has not only already turned in a superstar-level campaign, but features the kind of offensive profile that will boost his arb earnings.
Whether there’s appetite on either side for a full exploration of a contract isn’t yet known. It could be that last year’s non-talks and/or the thumb surgery will interfere. Chapman may simply not have interest personally. The A’s have a clean balance sheet to work with, but they also have other priorities to address and have never yet opened a season with a payroll of even $90MM. Then, there’s the fact that the team’s record for a single contract is still owned by former hot corner stalwart Eric Chavez — a player who in some ways serves as a fairly interesting comp for Chapman on the field — which on the one hand illustrates the extent to which the Oakland organization would need to leave its comfort zone to do a deal, and on the other hand perhaps suggests it’s time it does so again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
disadvantage
Two straight Matt Chapman articles!
MetsYankeesRedSox
Better than Mark David Chapman
IjustloveBaseball
I love Chapman, and normally I’d be a huge proponent of the A’s (finally) locking up a player long term. However, with 5 more years of club control there is no real urgency. Additionally, with Boras as his agent, I’m unsure this would be the right situation, as a deal would unlikely be anywhere near ‘team friendly.’
Now would I be happy if the A’s and Chapman could get an extension worked out? Heck yes, but only if it were truly fair for both sides.
justin-turner overdrive
There’s an almost 0% chance of this extension happening, at least as long as Boras is involved. Only question is how long the A’s will pay Chapman when he gets to $15-20M in arby. Awful way to think, but the A’s operate this way, not the way that pleases fans. They 100% absolutely should pay Chapman whatever arby says though.
Robertowannabe
As long as he stays productive. As of now, yes pay the man but I would wait out till later in his arb years to try to extend as he has 5 years yet and will be hitting 30 by then. If he still has Boros, Boros will be doing what he does best, trying to get the longest contract for the most money. I do not blame him for that but I also do not blame teams for wanting to shy away form 5+ year contracts for guys heading into their 30’s and if they are starting to show some chinks in the armor. If he is going strong in 4 years and no signs of any slowing, then offer a 5 year deal. If his numbers start to drop trade or ride till he leaves in FA and take the comp pick depending on what the trade market is in 4 years.
outinleftfield
How can we take you seriously when you misspell his agent’s name twice in the space of 2 words?
bigjonliljon
Took words right out of my mouth. He will be a bit old when he finally reaches FA. Why bother with an extension? With his idiot agent…. Boras will want extension that averages the 15-20M he will get at his height of arbitration
outinleftfield
Because the extension means locked in dollars as opposed to arbitration which means unknown and probably much higher dollars than an extension. Extensions for players with long-term team control are almost always team friendly. Including those for Boras clients.
jgoody62
I’m sure there was an article like this for Josh Donaldson!
outinleftfield
Josh Donaldson was a terrible player when he was 25. He spent the entire year in Sacramento.
justin-turner overdrive
If Boras wouldn’t let Bryce Harper sign one, why on earth would he let Chapman?
A’s need to be spending big on pitching this offseason, not worrying about extending people. The offense can be filled internally.
Joe Kerr
Bryce Harper is a free agent at age 26, Chapman not eligible for free agency until age 31. If the player loves the city/team, he can tell his agent to make something happen. If they are willing to offer 7 or 8 years near or exceeding $100 million, he might want that long term financial security. Is it risky, possibly leaving some money on the table, yes of course. But it is also risky not signing long term, injuries happen, could get worse, etc.
justin-turner overdrive
None of that addresses the fact that Boras doesn’t let stars sign extensions.
jbigz12
See Strasburg if you think there’s a zero percent chance that is happens.
tharrie0820
Boras didn’t LET Harper sign an extension? that’s not how it works. Harper CHOSE not to. Boras just advises, he doesn’t make the decisions
hiflew
You are forgetting that Boras works FOR Chapman, not the other way around.
bobtillman
Extending young players isn’t necessarily a good idea. Some respond well; others play rather lackadaisically since the money is already in the bank. I have no idea what “type” Chapman is, but neither really do the A’s.
But always consider the Mookie Betts Equation: why didn’t he sign an extension? It’s not like the Sox don’t have the money. He has enough confidence in himself (well founded, as we have seen).
Money isn’t the ONLY motivator….but it’s a pretty big one.
stan lee the manly
I wonder if the As would consider discussing a Chapman trade with the Cards. Lots of good, young, cheap pitching for the pitching starved As as well as a competent fill-in for the third base hole in Gyorko.
Carlos Martinez, one of Luke Weaver or Austin Gomber, and Gyorko maybe? Seems like Oakland really values him (for good reason) so they may consider the return light, but that seems to address issues for both teams
mmarinersfan
They’re not trading Chapman. They have no reason to.
stan lee the manly
I don’t know about you, but a lack of starting pitching seems to be a pretty darn good reason to me.
CCCTL
There are many starting pitchers. There is only one 3B putting up 25+ DRS per year with 25HR power and 5 more years of control.
mlb1225
You can fix starting pitching in multiple ways that doesn’t involve Matt Chapman being dealt. A lack of starting pitching is not enough of a reason to trade Chapman.
justin-turner overdrive
Dumbest trade proposal of the day, STL simply has nothing the A’s want or need that’s on Chapman’s super-elite level.
stan lee the manly
Carlos Martinez was pitching at an elite level before his injury this year and would immediately become Oakland’s ace on an extremely team friendly contract at the ripe young age of 27 as of last month. To say that Oakland doesn’t need something like that is frankly not true
stan lee the manly
Looking back at my proposal, I realize that a very important name was left off of my list that I meant to include. Nolan Gorman, their first round pick from last years draft, was a name I meant to include.
justacubsfan
Pretty light for a player as good as Chapman. It wouldn’t be worth it for either team. Athletics likely asking Flaharty and Weaver, cardinals not wanting to give up nearly as much. The cardinals are better suited to pay Machado then deal anyway. They’re sitting on piles and piles of money from the great people of Missouri.
outinleftfield
You win the contest for the most non-sensical post of the thread. Congratulations!
its_happening
Won’t get two thumbs up from Chapman.
julyn82001
A’s won’t trade Matt right now. Billy Beane needs to sit down with both Chapman and Boras and work something out.
stan lee the manly
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. If someone comes along with the right offer, they may very well go for it. With Manaea set to miss so much time next year and Oakland’s aversion to massive free agent deals, their rotation is a pretty glaring weakness. A huge upgrade there may be a much bigger gain than what they would be losing in going from Chapman to a more average third baseman
CCCTL
The lack of a rotation didn’t seem to stop them becoming the 4th winningest team in baseball, despite everyone thinking they’d be lucky to have a winning record at all.
BTW, the rotation will already be better next year with the #1 lefty SP prospect in baseball (Jesus Luzardo) contending for a (high, possibly #1) slot in ST.
Later season reinforcements will include:
Kaprielian – completely done with TJS rehab and throwing in instructional league games (being just off rehab, he’s not getting sent the AFL).
Manaea will be back from his shoulder surgery in the later season (ElAttrache gave him a “best case” diagnosis after doing the work).
AJ Puk (was #2 lefty SP prospect before he went down in ST) is also possible for a late-season return after his TJS.
Trade away five years of Matt Chapman for an incremental improvement in a single year?
Nah.
We’ll arb Fiers, keep Jackson and maybe Cahill, and then we have enough pitching prospects to keep us going to the ASB, where we’ll have saved the payroll space to see if we can pick up a starter on a deadline trade.
outinleftfield
A’s starters were 6th in the AL in ERA. Montas and Mengden should take steps forward in 2019. Manea won’t be back until mid-season so that will deplete the staff early and Puk’s TJ means he may not pitch in the majors at all in 2019. Still they have proven adept at using major league pitchers like Cahill, Anderson, and Jackson to fill the holes in their rotation. I mean they did win 97 games this past season with that rotation.
Logically it seems that minor upgrades in FA and trades would be more fruitful than wholesale changes. Maybe work to bring back Cahill. If they get half a season out of him until Manea is ready that is money well spent.
But comic book man seems to think they need to trade their best player. That makes no sense to me.
nste23
Why would they trade chapman after they increased their win total by 22 in his first full season with a young core of Olson Laureano Chapman
unpaidobserver
They’re not trading anyone unless they’re a blocked prospect. They won 97 games. Not going to add a nine figure deal but they’re in going for it mode next year at least.
jorge78
If they extend him that contract should be heavily insured.
A lot can happen in 5 years.
jbigz12
A lot can happen when you sign a 32 year old Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year deal too….
bowserhound
A’s fans will never forget that once Chavez signed his massive extension, his career went down the tubes.
unpaidobserver
A lot of that was the pressure he put on himself to play when we wasn’t right. I hope the organization has learned from that experience.