With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Robbie Ray inch closer to the open market, the D-backs will at least gauge trade interest in their roster early in the offseason before plotting a course, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
Around the league, there’s an expectation that the Snakes could oversee a full-throated rebuild, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests on Twitter. Within the organization, Hazen says the front office has already met with owner Ken Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall, calling Kendrick “open-minded” as the offseason gets underway.
“I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene,” adds Hazen.
There’s been plenty of speculation about a rebuild in Phoenix, where the D-backs stand to lose both Pollock and Corbin this winter and will see Goldschmidt reach free agency following the 2019 season. Ray, meanwhile, is set to hit the open market after the 2020 season, as is outfielder David Peralta. The Arizona farm system is not considered to be particularly strong, and the team’s long-term payroll is weighed down by Zack Greinke’s record contract and the albatross deal for Yasmany Tomas — two remnants from the previous front office regime around which Hazen & Co. will need to navigate.
The D-backs also have a whopping 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter, including several key players who are up for sizable raises — as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz earlier today. Peralta ($7.7MM), Ray ($6.1MM), Brad Boxberger ($4.9MM), Taijuan Walker ($4.825MM), Jake Lamb ($4.7MM), Steven Souza Jr. ($4MM), Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM), Archie Bradley ($2MM), Andrew Chafin ($1.8MM), T.J. McFarland ($1.4MM) and Matt Andriese ($1.1MM) all figure to be tendered contracts.
Add in Goldschmidt’s no-brainer club option and guaranteed salaries for Greinke, Tomas, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson and Ketel Marte, and the tab reaches $119.125MM — a hefty sum for a D-backs club that has only twice opened the season with more than $100MM in guaranteed contracts on the books. Even rounding out the roster with league-minimum players would push the Diamondbacks within a few million dollars of the franchise-record $131.5MM payroll they carried on Opening Day 2018. And if the team decides to tender contracts to any of Shelby Miller ($4.9MM projection), Chris Owings ($3.6MM) or John Ryan Murphy ($1.1MM), that financial outlook would only be further muddied.
With little help on the way from the farm, two of their best players hitting free agency, the face of a franchise a year from the open market, a near-record payroll and a miserable finish to the season, it’s not hard to see why the D-backs are at least considering a look to the future. A full tear-down wouldn’t even be necessary, as they could gauge interest in flipping some stars who are controlled for a relatively short period of time in exchange for some more controllable assets that could help at the MLB level either immediately or in the near future.
Goldschmidt would be the biggest piece they could put on the market, as the perennial MVP candidate rebounded from an awful start to post a characteristically brilliant .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 homers in 690 plate appearances. But Ray would also be one of the most in-demand assets on the offseason market for starting pitching, with few quality arms expected to be available in trades. The 27-year-old missed time with an oblique strain in 2018 and a concussion in 2017, but he’s averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons and a 3.34 ERA in his past 285 1/3 innings in that time. Peralta is only two years from free agency himself and posted a .293/.352/.516 line with a career-high 30 homers.
Certainly, there are avenues to additional payroll capacity down the line. The team inked a television deal reportedly worth more than $1.5 billion in Feb. 2015, but they’re only in year three of a contract that was said to be as long as two decades in length and included gradual increases in year-over-year television revenue. The Diamondbacks are also in the process of seeking alternatives to Chase Field, but a new stadium wouldn’t be a possibility until at least the 2022 season.
What about that stadium affair they keep talking about?
I think I may have read where that got straightened out and they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Why would you have an affair with a stadium?
Because an arena is closed-off.
Haha
D-backs are at that pivotal point. They can take the royals or orioles approach and let all their talent walk away or they can wise up and blow it up. It’s tough to do that with a competitive ball club but I can’t honestly see this team hanging with the dodgers. Maybe they could fight for another WC with Colorado, STL, and Milwaukee but I’d put them below those 4 squads and that’s before you think about any of the rebuilding teams possibly moving their way up. It a crappy position to be in because they have little to nothing on the pipeline but it has to be looked at real hard.
I’m sure you meant to say Cubs
Cubs brewers cards any of them could take the division I do believe.
I reckon.
I think the Cubs window may be closed unfortunately. They probably won’t sign any big name free agents this year cause they are already very close to the luxury tax. The best they can hope for is Darvish and Chatwood (ugh) have bounce back years. Hopefully no injuries from the offense side and maybe they can contend for a wildcard. The Brewers are good young and have plenty of money to spend before they hit the tax.
I like how you purposely leave out the Cardinals
Haha…the Cubs still have one of the youngest rosters in the league and just won 95 games with Bryant hurt 1/2 the season and no closer.
And once again all the haters think Cubs are hindered by the luxury tax level! This is not a factor in Theo’s payroll plans. They have planned for 3 years so they could blow by the threshold this winter.
“Window closed” for Cubs? LMAO!!
I disagree, it’s all about making good decisions this off season, the Brew Crew got Cain, Yellich, and players like Chacin last season which put them over the top. Teams like the D-Backs could have got any of those players. It will be hard this winter because the big spenders will be back in the mix like the Yanks. I think they will make a strong offer to Corbin. They might have to move Greinke, his salary is a big market salary.
He’s even said himself they have spent a ton of money he doesn’t know if it’s wise to spend more. Sounds to me like he was told to ease up on the spending.
And yet the Rays won 90 games.
The Brewers bounced back after just two losing sseasons.
There’s more than one way to build a winner.
the crew wont approach the tax. The Cubs will blow past it.
The brewers will never get anywhere near the tax
It’s interesting IF Goldschmidt is put out on the trade market. The Cardinals are a perfect fit here. We need an elite MOTO bat and Dbacks need young stud talent. We have a surplus of that. Plus, I’m sure if the would take Fowler, the Cards might take Grienke off their hands.
Honestly it’s not like the West is extremely tough. They would be in contention if they added a quality shortstop and late inning reliever.
They could probably trade prospects to the Tigers for a combo of Iglesias and Greene
Tough to trade for a pending FA. Shane Greene wasn’t exactly a dependable late inning reliever last year either.
@baseball1600 Iglesias is a free agent
Ahmed is much better than Iglesias offensively and defensively LOL
My bad I thought he was a a FA by the end of next year
2 playoff teams. Dodgers Have far and away the best roster of talent. If they’re already completely strained financially it’s going to be tough to add to that roster. I could see an argument with them being right there with the Rockies but then you have to compete against the cubs cardinals and Milwaukee for a playoff slot. I’d put them behind all of those teams.
Goldy to the Yanks makes too much sense.
More offense to the Yankees does not make sense. They have 3 SP (CC, Lynn, Happ) and two big RP (Robertson, Britton) all hitting FA.
Dont expect the Yankees to sign anyone big or trade a lot of player capital to upgrade their offense. The Yankees just set the HR record (even with two big HR guys being injured for a lengthy amount of time) as well as came in 2nd for average runs scored per game. They might make some smaller moves like resign McCutchen, but a big splash for offense is extremely unlikely and doesnt fit, even if 1B is their worst position offensively (which is not too bad, all things considered. two young and promising options at 1B with high power potential).
Corbin to the Yankees makes exponentially more sense than Goldy to Yanks.
“two young and promising options at 1B” The Yankees have a retread who had a wonderful thirty games or so, and a injury plagued disappointment there. They most certainly need to address first and pitching.
Agreed. They have the biggest first base hole of all teams not in the ‘beginning of a rebuild’ category.
Sure, but both options have shown flashes that they can become one of the above average players in the league. I think its worth the gamble, especially when their offense is already so good.
lofl, Bird has shown squat.
What! the Yanks have Voit at first. This kid can hit.
+slevin
Bird showed a lot of promise in his 2015 stint, got hurt in 2016, had a great spring in 2017, got hurt again but came back for the 2017 playoffs where he hit key HRs against Andrew Miller and Ken Giles. He had a bad 2018, sure, but to say he hasnt shown squat is really disingenuous. He has shown that he can hit at a very high level. Whether he realizes that potential or not is another thing. It is understandable to think that he wont, but regardless he has still shown good things.
What’s it gonna take for you to get off of the Bird train?
1500 career PAs
For you to harshly judge a very young player with good potential, when they havent even hit 1000 career PAs, is foolish on your part. If by around 1500 PAs he still doesnt become the Greg Bird we all saw in 2015 or better, then sure move on from him. But its far too early to truly judge Bird at this point.
Also, you do realize the Yankees have more 1B than Bird, right? In my comment I took into account the fact that Voit is there.
Corbin and Eovaldi are the right moves for the Yanks along with 2 relief pitchers.
Corbin yes, Eovaldi no.. Eovaldi just had his second TJS and reminded me more of AJ Burnett when he was in NY than the pitcher the Yankees saw in this year’s post season. Sure, if Eovaldi is willing to take a 3 year mid $30m contract then go ahead and sign him. I have a feeling that because of his age and recent production some team is going to give him 4 or possibly 5 years..Too long for an arm already on his 2nd TJS..
Doesn’t make any sense because, too expensive, too old, and a RH bat that is not needed.
They should use their resources on pitching, not trying to upgrade over Voit. If Voit/Bird doesn’t work out, it isn’t difficult to find a good 1B. They really need to focus on clear needs first.
Arizona loses Eduardo Escobar this year too, I hope the Indians sign him
In a vacuum, I’d agree with you because I think Escobar is a decent player and he probably won’t be too expensive. But that would probably mean playing Kipnis in center again or just using Escobar as a bench guy and he’s probably better than that (although after watching the ALDS, if someone is capable of swinging a bat I’d take them and deal with the rest later).
Trading Kipnis would be the way to avoid that, and maybe it’s possible since there’s one less year on his contract and he hit fairly well after starting off so badly. But I highly doubt they could find a trade for Kipnis even if they tried.
The D-Backs could retool and return to contention quicker then the Giants, but depends how they want to do it, package what they can and get rid of Tomas and Grienke or trade pieces of value to retool while keeping a solid team and payroll, on the fence really if what they should do
I know it’s been said before but Goldy is a special talent and the Yankees reset the tax this year.. So, I wonder if the D-Back’s could package Greinke and Goldy to the Yanks for a couple of lottery tickets.. The $20m excess value they will get out of Goldschmidt will make Greinke’s salary more palatable when averaging the savings over the length of his contract. Greinke was thought to be a serious head case who couldn’t handle a major market early in his career but after having that career year in LA I think he has proven them wrong. Plus, he seems to be a smart pitcher similar to Greg Maddux and pitchers with brains usually age well barring injuries. I would seriously consider that if I was both teams. Greinke and Severino would be a great 1-2, Sheffield is ready, resign Happ short term and find plenty of depth.
Nice idea, wondered about Greinke myself and may not take much in way of prospects to take the contract. Not sure about a no trade clause though.
If the D-backs decide to rebuild send eat some of that contract and send Greinke over here to the Braves more they eat the better the prospect coming back and would throw in Teheran to take his innings in the rotation in the rebuild
Wouldn’t mind that same thinking with the Cubs to bring Heyward back Cubs farm is pretty bare
Yes, that’s the answer – bring Heyward back. Why would you want to take that loathesome contract off the Cubs’ backs and do them such a favor?
How about David Price while you are at it…
Ellsbury
Chris Davis
I actually like the idea of a Greinke for Teheran deal. There would probably be other pieces involved but it’s a good start
Coppy, is that you?? You must be a Braves fan then. Let’s be realistic. Teheran is making $11.16MM in 2019 and carries a $12MM option for 2020 ($1MM buyout). That was viewed as a steal when he was an All-Star — not so much anymore. He was lucky to make the NLDS and Snitker reaffirmed that he would NOT start Game 5 and basically said that he would come in when the wheels fell off. While I don’t see ATL eating that $12.16MM (including a buyout) – I could see them dangling $5-6MM around his neck and sending him as bait for a team that could afford a risky luxury. I could imagine a call will be made to spacious KC and SD – who are always in need of a deal so they can flip, but I cannot imagine ARZ spinning to their fans that the same team that pulled the wool over their eyes with Shelby Miller isn’t doing it again with Teheran – at the price of their beloved (overpaid), quirky ace.
OTOH, Teheran is controlled for two years, not three, and for about $80 million less. ARZ would have to eat some of Greinke’s contract and do some other creative accounting to make the deal work, but this isn’t nearly as crazy as a lot of things people suggest. Especially if the Braves send over a prospect or two who might otherwise occupy a space on the 40-man.
What part of Heyward back to Atlanta makes ANY sense? Unless the Cubs are paying all of his contract for 2 prospects in the 90-100 range from the Braves system, it’s a no.
Yeah that’s gonna be a no from me dog
Yankees desperate for Pitching Greinke and cash to get out of contract if by some miracle you could throw in Tomas contract even better although not likely – Braves have milb talent as well maybe them but don’t follow Giants example and just keep adding old pieces- trade Goldie while you can.
Doesn’t Greinke have a limited NTC to the larger market teams bc of his anxiety? Not sure on that just thought I remembered something about that…..
I am pretty sure he does, but it’s been written in the past that he likes ATL, so I can’t imagine he would include ATL as one of those teams, especially with him being from Orlando. His approach reminds me somewhat of Mad Dog’s (Maddux), though erring on the quirky side.
How foolish did the Cubs ownership look by playing contract chicken with Maddux back in the early 90’s? What always impressed me about him was you could always see his wheels turning, trying to outsmart hitters. He never overpowered anybody, just had solid offerings and knew hitter’s weaknesses. MLB needs another Maddux.
Cardinals have tons of young cost-controlled pitching, along with a Dexter Fowler contract they would like to move. My proposal is two young arms such as Hudson and Weaver, along with Fowler for Goldie and Greinke. The D-backs get salary relief from their albatross contract and the Cardinals get the #3 hitter they haven`t had in years, plus a veteran presence in the rotation who still has gas in the tank.
It would probably take another prospect added to that from the cardinals. Like an edmundo Sosa or tommy edman, or even Carson kelly.. all good prospects, but goldy is amazing and Greinke could really help the cards, even with that contract.
I could see adding another prospect. After subtracting Fowler contract from the Greinke contract, the Cardinals would be looking at 3 yrs/55m. Not bad for a veteran who is still getting it done. I think it is important for them to have a veteran there amongst all the youth. D-backs could use a catcher such as Kelly. He would finally get a chance to play. Of course, would want to extend Goldie for 5 yrs after getting him in this deal.
I think people don’t look at the fine writing closely enough. Is Grienke’s contract a bad contract? Yes, there’s no doubt about that. But it looks worse on the surface than it actually is at least in terms of trade value. They signed Grienke basically knowing his deferred money was DOA. No one was or is going to touch the deferred money. And in their window it doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. In reality they aren’t going to touch the luxury tax threshold so his AAV doesn’t matter. What does matter is his actual yearly payout. So it’s basically a 3/75 which is significantly better than Fowler, who is now a corner OF that is a comp piece. I’m not knocking the idea it just seems like the Dbacks would be better eating a portion of his yearly payout than being on the hook for more dead money. My bet is somebody would definitely bite around the 3/54-30/60 range which suits the Dbacks a whole hell of a lot better freeing up 17-20M for 3 years than swapping for a bad contract such as Fowler’s.
Agree, people think the Greinke contract is horrible but he is making roughly what he is producing on the field. If your just looking at WAR and its perceived value he is right on with his contract/production if not exceeding it.
I’ll trade you Homer Bailey for Yasmany Tomas
I realize that Greinke has a massive contract due him, but the guy can seriously still pitch. Arizona would have to be very creative to clear his contract off the books, but it isn’t impossible.
PERHAPS something along the lines of Greinke, Hirano AND Peralta to Atlanta for Kolby Allard, Luke Jackson and Rio Ruiz. I know that isn’t much going back to Arizona, but that contract is so massive that I just don’t envision the Diamondbacks being able to get rid of it without biting a serious bullet.(Atlanta could possibly throw in guys like Jose Ramirez or Wes Parsons as well).
greinke 4.8 Hirano 1.3 Peralta 3.9 total 10 WAR…for one pitching prospect and two blah players….that’s a hard no.
I think this year can be misleading for the D-Backs, Corbin had a career year Bucholz was lightning in a bottle and they still finished 9.5 games behind an injury plagued dodgers team. They still would need a major piece or two on top of keeping their own players to really compete. I dont think it is worth trying to catch the Dodgers in the next two years if it means the Padres/Giants are going to get far ahead of you on the down turn.
Yasmani Tomas and cash for Rusney Castillo. ARI has almost no offense.
Makes zero sense on the Red Sox’s portion.
It doesn’t really make sense for either team honestly, they’re just swapping expensive busts from Cuba
Less for the Sox… the way Castillo was written he’s not a Major League Contract despite the number and this does not count against the luxury tax as long as he stays in the minors.
Greinke & $15 million for Teheran & Allard ?????
And yes after I researched it I want no part of Heyward’s contract. How many years is Markakis going to be looking for ?
Lamb to the Whitesox??
While it’s possible they can try to go all in 1 more time… Most teams decide to rebuild too late and it’d probably be a good time for them to start. Drafting mistakes like taking Danby Swanson over Alex Bregman and trading some young talent hurt. Although I guess if they traded Swanson maybe they would have traded Bregman too lol
Here is a trade idea:
Arizona trades – Zack Greinke and Jake Lamb to the Padres for Wil Myers (to offset some money and possible Goldshmidt replacement) and 2 of the Padres top 30 prospects. Higher prospects if Arizona kicks in any money.
I would imagine that a lot of what happens will revolve around their ability or inability to bring back Pollock and Corbin. They don’t have much on the books moving forward despite the contracts for Greinke and Tomas. It would seem at least feasible that Pollock would return if he receives the qualifying offer. If that’s the case, maybe taking another crack at the post season isn’t a terrible idea.
Otherwise, it would makes sense, at least to me, to look for Lamb, Miller, and Walker to rebound; move everyone else that isn’t pre-arb and has value. It isn’t a stretch to think they could jump back into contention in 2-3 years. Moving Greinke would be tough, but maybe a team like NY would bite.
The D’Backs should try to swap out Greinke in a bad contract for contract swap. If you sent Greinke to the Cubs for Heyward and Ian Happ, they could let Hamels walk, D’Backs get a controllable quality utility player in Happ, Cubs get an aging, yet effective pitcher in Greinke. Why this could be ugly:
Lester, Darvish, Greinke, Chatwood is a lot of money in a rotation that could go south in a hurry..
This trade makes no sense from the Dbacks perspective. The actual money they earn annually is virtually the same (25M v 22M) and then would be on the hook for 2 more 20M+ seasons for a flawed corner OF that is a comp piece and an extremely flawed Happ with no defensive upside. The totality of the money may be the same, but the effects are completely one sided. Heyward would be completely dead money, Grienke has value if they are willing to eat some money off the 25M annually.
Greinke is 35 and making $35 mil/year.
Heyward is 29 and is making $22-23 mil/year.
Greinke’s 2018 value is much higher than that of Heyward, yes, but going forward, it will likely level out. Even if the D’Backs pay half of the Greinke contract, how many teams will be willing to pay a 35,36,37 year old $17.5 mil/year, and there’s no way the DBacks would pay that much of the contract. Heyward still does hold some value, although it doesn’t show much on the offensive side of things. You could argue that Heyward for Greinke is a good deal for the D’Backs.
Consistent inning eating front of the rotation starters are a rare commodity. Greinke is earning what he produces (as far as WAR). Peralta is a corner outfielder outproducing Heyward at a fraction of the cost.
You make that move if you are looking to rebuild. I don’t see Zona winning without Greinke or not spending at least $175-mil. Option B is dealing prospects. Doubt they’re looking to take that route again.
While you are correct in an AAv sense, you are also wrong in terms of the contract. He is making 25M a year with an extended 6 years of deferred money. They signed the contract while attempting to redo their tv contact so in a business sense the deferred money was basically already factored in and considered dead. The simple fact is the real year to year value over the next three years is 75/3. It’s a hell of a lot different than 35*3. So again Grienke still has more value significantly, more value than Heyward, especially as Heyward’s contract runs through 23 at 22M+. Nobody was ever going to pick up the deferred money and that was/is never going to be a factor. My point still stands, the Dbacks eating day 5-10M on his annual rates is significantly more beneficial in every sense of the thought than acquiring a basic 5 year dead money contract. That is essentially freeing themselves of 15-20M dollars.
annually. And if you don’t think teams would be interested in a still very good veteran pitcher to eat innings and line up around your number 3 slot then I don’t know what to tell you, bc there definitely will be.
How many teams have the ability to take on that kind of money, let alone on a 35 year old? How many 35 year olds threw 180+ innings last year? 36 year olds? 37? If Greinke were a free agent today, he’d probably fetch 2 years/$40 mil. So there might 5-8 teams that’d be willing to pay him $20mil/year without giving up anything in trade – yet, you think he has trade value? I’m struggling to see it.
Let me turn that around and ask you the same question. How many teams have the ability to trade for a below average offensive player highly overpaid for his current skill set who’s extended until 23 and is not a cf? Trade value is relative in this discussion. My main point was the fact that the idea that Grienke is a for sure bad contract swap for bad contract swap isn’t entirely true. That’s without entirely admitting he’s just a different pitcher and a 45/3-60/3 isn’t a major stretch. In fact it’s short term compared to extended Heyward pact.
That doesn’t make any sense. Heyward is owed more. Arizona would want to shed salary, not the opposite. Stretching it out over more years wouldn’t soften anything..
We don’t want to hear about you looking for (another) new stadium. – Oakland A’s
They should just cut the bullshit and move to Las Vegas.
The DBacks needs to trade Goldsmith or else he’s gonna walk and they’ll be with nothing.
DBacks need to tear it down and start from scratch. Bigger question is how can your farm be void of impact talent when you draft in decent position each year? They need to mix in solid veterans with value and acquire prospects. No pressure in AZ…fan base would not revolt.
Main thing is to avoid what happened to O’s and Royals as stated above. Even Chisox have encountered issues the way they are doing it. Too many “prospects” without the veterans to be the glue. I remember WCastillo staying in spring that Sox were ahead of where their crosstown rival was in ‘15! Instead, Sox took giant step back and lost 100 games. Beware of a rebuild! If not planned/timed just right it could be a huge miss.
I see a huge match here with Cleveland. Trade either Souza or Peralta+ for Kluber.
7 years Pollack played one full season
Phillies could take on Greinke and Tomas as long as they give us good prospects
Fowler and weaver for grenke would save az 54 million over 3 years and Fowler will nake a cineback