This is the final installment in our Market Snapshot series. Let’s check in on the array of possibilities for teams looking at rotation improvements.
Teams In Need
There are few teams that won’t at least consider some kind of tweaks to their rotation mix in any given offseason. Some, though, stand out as worthy of particular attention.
A variety of contenders will be looking to get better and perhaps also boost depth. The Astros, Angels, Athletics, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves all have needs. It’s possible the Phillies, Cardinals, and Red Sox could look to improve, even if they could also might largely hold pat. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions that the Padres and Reds are serious about getting new rotation pieces in place.
The Brewers held off on any major improvements last winter but tried to add Yu Darvish, so could again seek arms. Similarly, the creative Rays have some money to spend and surely wouldn’t mind adding productive starters at a good value despite the successes of their non-traditional staff management. Though their anticipated competitiveness may be somewhat in doubt, it’d be unwise to count out clubs such as the Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Even clubs like the White Sox and Royals could at least go looking for depth, while serving as wild cards to do more.
Free Agents
Frontline: Clayton Kershaw is still the big name to watch, assuming he opts out as expected. While he won’t take home the kind of whopping deal that once seemed possible, he’ll still draw plenty of attention — if he doesn’t work something out with the Dodgers in advance. Patrick Corbin is coming off of a huge season at relatively youthful age and figures to be of keen interest. The somewhat older and generally more accomplished Dallas Keuchel is also in line for a big contract, but perhaps doesn’t have the earning upside of Corbin. Charlie Morton could ring up a big payday, though his own geographical and competitive preferences may lead him to feature as a nice value.
Mid-rotation: Nathan Eovaldi is arguably the most fascinating pitcher to watch, given his age, loud stuff, and recent success after a run of health issues. Another wild card could be coming from Japan in the form of southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who may well be posted.
As they did on the trade market, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels (if his option isn’t exercised), and Gio Gonzalez can offer quality veteran frames. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had major injury issues but has also been excellent when healthy. You could probably debate how to categorize Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Derek Holland, but we’ll keep them here since all have solid cases for multi-year commitments.
CC Sabathia can still get the job done, though he’ll likely go for another single-year pact. It’ll be interesting to see how the market treats Anibal Sanchez after his stunning bounceback year in Atlanta, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.
Back-end: Wade Miley and Lance Lynn also had interesting seasons. The former had great results that aren’t fully backed by peripherals (at least, if you don’t believe he can sustain his home run suppression), while the latter was dinged for nearly 5 earned per nine on the year but put up some impressive peripherals after being traded to the Yankees.
Other pitchers that had at least reasonably productive 2018 seasons, but otherwise come with some less desirable features, include Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Edwin Jackson, Tyson Ross, and James Shields. Bounceback candidates include Drew Pomeranz, Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez, while Garrett Richards seems situated to ink a two-year deal while he finishes his Tommy John rehab.
Depth: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Drew Hutchison, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin
Trade Candidates
Top targets: Contenders will see how a new Mets front office feels about Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler, with a feeding frenzy sure to ensue if they’re made available. It’s perhaps equally unlikely that the Giants will put Madison Bumgarner up for option, but he’d be a fascinating player to see the market value given his outstanding track record and more recent warning signs. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Diamondbacks will market Zack Greinke, who’s awfully pricey but is now playing on a three-year term and is still very good.
Mid-rotation targets: We’ve already seen clear indication that the Yankees will try to find a taker for Sonny Gray after a rough campaign. Andrew Cashner (Orioles), Ivan Nova (Pirates) and Tanner Roark (Nationals) are other potential trade candidates who have of innings. None of these pitchers is cheap, but all are available on one-year commitments.
The Blue Jays would get plenty of interest if they decided to move on from Marcus Stroman, though it’s not clear that’ll happen. Likewise, Arizona hurlers Robbie Ray and Zach Godley would be of interest elsewhere. Other talented pitchers who have struggled recently include Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and Danny Duffy of the Royals.
Other pitchers could come available if teams like the Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies seek upgrades, though it’s hard to guess at the possibilities at this point.
Contract dumps: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Tyler Chatwood (Cubs), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Cobb (Orioles), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Homer Bailey (Reds)
I feel like Corbin to the Bronx is a near lock. I haven’t really seen any outside chatter about him going anywhere else.
And I fully expect Yankee fans to anoint themselves 2019 World Series Champions when they get him.
Wait until the offseason trust me it won’t be just the Yankees at the top dog for him…
Boo hoo
As a Yankees fan, not a chance would I anoint them WS champs if they add just Corbin. They have a lot of holes to fill. We lose two big bullpen arms in Britton and DRob. Happ and CC are FAs. Didi is out most of next season. Gardner’s option most likely won’t be picked up. Cutch will look for a 3-4 year contract elsewhere.
We have a lot of needs
I mean, you can’t really be hearing chatter. Negotiations would be considered tampering, and if a team is strongly considering him or not is really just speculation at this point
After Eovaldi on the mid rotation list? None would give a multi year contract to and that includes Happ, unless after 1st year is team option.
Rest of the fair (at best) need to move to, or stay in the NL for any kind of a chance.. Guys like Miley, Lynn, Gonzalez, Sanchez.
I would say Happ could get a two year deal easily enough. Maybe a third year vesting option if bidding gets heavy.
Agreed Joe!
2-3 with the 3rd being some sort of option seems entirely likely for Happ. Would love to see him back in Toronto but hopefully he finds a good destination (preferably in another division).
In a pitching starved market, a lefty coming off of a 3.98 FIP in 175 + IP, will get at least a 2 year deal. He is among the better pitchers likely to accept a short-term contract. Almost any team should be able to afford him.
The way Eovaldi has been pitching he could get a 4/60 million contract this winter.
If KErshaw does leave does anyone see the Dodgers making a big trade? and if so for who?
I don’t know if there’s a big trade to be made except maybe Greinke.
I could see the dodgers trading for Gray. They will have the payroll space and it won’t cost much in terms of prospects. They will likely need to replace Ryu and there’s a decent chance Gray plays up in the NL West and Dodger Stadium. Kershaw isn’t leaving so no big trade coming.
I don’t see Dodgers pursuing Gray with the pitchers it has under team control
I could see Kershaw going to team where he is the number 2 guy. It would take oodles of pressure off for the post season and he might actually have a chance in the post season. The Dodgers are choke artists and Kershaw can’t handle the pressure. It’s 100% not happening but slotting Kershaw behind bumgarner on the giants, while also having cueto would be an ideal top 3 when considering both regular and post season.
Yeah kershaw bumgarner and cueto would be nice. They’d just have to pick 3 guys off the street to play outfield
There are very few teams where Kershaw would actually be a #2, and that doesn’t include the Giants where he’d still slot in ahead of Bumgarner.
If Kershaw leaves I see Dodgers making a strong play for Corbin
Corbin and Greinke to the Yankees would make a lot of sense. Two starters who combined for 10 WAR in 2018, battle tested in a hitter friendly park, and costing only money.
That’s what they call a perfect fit. Dodgers will probably be the only real competition, especially for Greinke. I don’t see anyone else with $35M/year to spare, on a single player.
Greinke can’t handle NY with his anxiety problems.
He seemed to be able to handle LA just fine. I would assume since the Yankees have never been connected to him in the past though, I doubt they would chase after him now. He has been on the trading block a couple of times in the past and went through free agency once already and I don’t remember seeing even one rumor of him joining the Yankees. Happ and Corbin will probably be their pickups while leaving a spot open for Sheffield. Gray will probably get traded for a lefty bullpen arm and a lottery ticket. I doubt it happens but I hope they resign McCutchen. He is an OBP machine and would be a nice replacement for Gardner.
Yanks have always been attached to Greinke. It was just felt that he may not be able to handle NY.
Nail… the media and fans in NY and LA are way different. I also think NY is on his no trade list.
LA is an easy going large market. The Bronx would be terrible for him and I think he’s said that before
LA is a far cry from NYC. LA is a propaganda city, and that’s it. NYC is one of the largest cities on the planet, is a corporate HUB and massive population center. The only place LA compares is in the minds of propagandists and people stupid enough to live in socal. Handling LA means you can deal with living in what is essentially a foreign country. Sad.
You mean the whole of California
NY fans and media need to wise up, they are only hurting their teams , I think any player should be able to play anywhere.. Greinke has played in a lot of different places with no problems, he’s not Jimmy Pearsol.
NY is an above ground septic tank. The weather is awful and so are the people who live there. Only idiots would pay that much to live in a place so awful. Go ahead pour a beer on people. So your class.
He’s done everything within his means to manage his anxiety, and there have been zero signs that it is, could, or would cause any issues in the future.
You’re way off base.
So why has he expressed adamantly no desire to play there?
The key to dealing with his anxiety isn’t to put himself in the worse possible situation.
Greinke wants nothing to do with the Bronx, too big an atmosphere for him, he would be another Gray.
or Hall of Famer Randy Johnson!
Not a lot of teams can spend $35M/year on a single player, but they could send better prospects back with ARZ eating more. That’s something I imagine a lot of mid-market teams like ATL looking for. That way ARZ’s FO can justify not necessarily a traditional rebuild, but a reload – presumably taking the savings and making a pitch to Goldy – or not.
“I don’t see anyone else with $35M/year to spare, on a single player.”
lol
Yankee fans are even more deranged then Trump haters…..
$35mm for Grienke
$30-40 mm for Corbin
$30-40mm for Machado
$35-45mm for Harper
And no idea of how much the Yankees contractual commitments for 2019 are. Who cares? The Steinbrenner’s will simply float treasury’s and print money!
Am old enough to remember the long ago days of the Can’t Miss Yu Darvish chase.
What are you talking about? I’m a Yankee fan and I don’t know any of my fellow fans who would support that ridiculous line of thinking…
All of my Yankee-fan friends do not want Harper, and I don’t either. We already have a glut of outfielders and we do not need another $300 million corner outfielder. Corbin will not go for $30-$40 million ever, his range is more $23-$25 per year. Corbin and Machado are the two that most Yankee fans want.
Nobody is paying Corbin anywhere close to $30-40 million a year.
Well then “nobody” is gonna sign him. He’ll get $25m for sure and if it’s a short deal I don’t think $30m is out of the question. 6 win pitchers the right side of 30 years old aren’t cheap
Why would he accept a short deal? He’s 29 and there will be teams willing to offer 5+ years for him. $30 million deals are reserved for superstar pitchers like Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke, etc. Corbin is nowhere near their level. This season he was stellar, but his track record is more of a #2 starter.
I’m soooooo confident that no one is going to give him any where near $30 mil or a contract greater than 6 years. He will be paid but let’s be real, he’s only had 2 years worthy of being considered a true #1., last year and 2013. He will probably get a 6/$150 which will take him to his age 35 season and even that contract is a little risky.
I’m not sure his pedigree would garner more than maybe a 5-6 year deal., Teams are much more aware of when players tend to go south and 33-34 is right around that time.
Hate much? I didn’t read where a single Yankee fan thinks that will happen. In fact, a few, me included, would love for the Yanks to stay away from Greinke and Machado, I DO think Harper makes sense on some level, provided the contract is a bit more reasonable than the numbers I’ve heard discussed. I’m ok with a 8/$240 mil for Harper. But then again, I wouldn’t be mad if we got Brantley instead. We could use a lefty bat.
He said not a lot of teams. Trump supports dont read much
You may have forgotten but there’s a city about 100 miles to the southwest that has that kind of payroll space and we’ve beaten you before; greetings from Philadelphia. Oh, by the way, Cliff Lee says hi.
For a FA, but not in the 2009 World Series..Oh, by the way, Hideki Matsui says Konnichiwa.
I don’t know why this is downvoted…he has a point. Philly has a ton of cash to spend, they are at least a year ahead of schedule for their rebuild, and they are a big enough market for regional to national endorsements. I expect Philly to be active in the FA market because they likely think they can compete with ATL and WAS has A LOT of questions this off-season. I have no love for the city of Philadelphia or their borderline insane fan bases…but the Phillies will be big spenders this off-season.
As for my Mets..well….they’ll sign Doug Melvin to continue their dumpster fire front office moves, likely add a broken past his prime reliever for at least a year too long, and then add Austin Jackson and try and claim it was a successful off-season. They should extend deGrom, Syn, and Wheeler…but they won’t.
You don’t want Derek Holland, but you want Derek LASTNAME. LASTNAME has a sub-3.00 ERA, while Holland’s is nearly 5.00.
Speaking of LASTNAME, I’d love it if the Giants would re-sign him. He has said he loves the Giants and I think most fans love him too.
I keep thinking Teheran has pitched his last game as a Brave. They’ll get someone to complement Folty and move Julio, whose salary is reasonable but who needs to pitch in a bigger ballpark.
I’m still waiting for Teheran to be the pitcher that the Brave’s fan base has been claiming is a #1 for at least the past 3 years. They have 4-5+ young guys in the minors with way more upside than Teheran….they should have traded him when they moved Shelby.
About a third of Grienkie’s salary is deferred every year to after its conclusion. If the D-backs agree to keep the deferrals, he becomes a 20M a year pitcher (give or take). He’s definitely worth that.
I think he’s got Astros written all over him…..
I’m totally on board with that take of Grienke for $20m/yr. While I wouldn’t say that would provide surplus value, but I think he’d be fairly priced and very tempting for a team like MIL.
I still think Corbin is a Yankee (unfortunately) and he’ll be worth the 5/$130m or maybe 6/$155m if there is at least one other team seriously in the mix. Corbin could be a solid #2 with #1 upside in some games.
This is the one time it’s good to be an Indians fan.
These lists of pitchers are exhibit A as to why organizations would rather develop their own pitching. Outside of 4 or 5, in the totality of this article, i wouldn’t want in my rotation.
Eovaldi is the guy I’d roll the dice on to have the best upside…him or Ryu. I’d love to see Eovaldi’s advanced stats because he definitely passes the eye test in regard to his stuff. The movement he gets when he is on is scary good. I know my Mets are not in the market for a pitcher because they spent all of their money on Vargas (groan…), but he’d be a great pick up for another small market team like MIL, MIN, KC, PIT. I’m not sure if PIT would be in play, but he is the kind of guy who goes to PIT and takes another step up.
I believe Dodgers will shop Alex Wood rather than pay him the projected $9MM in arbitration and use that money to re-sign Ryu. Kershaw re-sign along with Ryu then Rich Hill could also be traded.
I believe there’s a decent chance they just non-tender Wood.
I think they could get someone to bite for Wood if they eat most of his money…it’s a better option to get a lotto ticket and save $2m-$3m for Wood instead of just non-tendering him.
Some teams will in fact need pitchers.
But what pitchers will go to what team – well, now, that is anyone’s guess.
Why are the comments about what the Dodgers and Yankees are going to do with all of these free agents? There are 28 other teams out there that could be in play too!
Then feel free to make a suggestion.
Who you reppin?
Which top pitching FA do you think the Rays, Pirates, A’s and Kansas will sign?
None of those teams will sign a top tier guy…but they should be in on Eovaldi, Cahill, and Happ. Maybe Hellickson slips in there for a team friendly 1 year deal with a team option.
I agree. They will have a lot of competition from NY (Happ) and Boston (Eovaldi) I think.
You got 1/3 Zack/Zach’s right. They ALL have the K spelling.
Astros will lose Keuchel and Morton, but will pickup Greinke to replace Keuchel. Wouldn’t be surprised if they got Corbin too. That playoff loss has left a “bitter pill to swallow” feeling.
No…. I would wager a lot of money both will not be on their team. Especially Corbin. They won’t get into that bidding war.
Eppler needs to be all over pitching. Corbin will get paid like an ace, I think, although he’s not one. He’s the best available, though, and that drives up the price.
I’d love to see Gray and/or Cole Hammels in the bigger ballparks of the AL West to raise the floor. Maybe Nova. At least one inning eater then hopefully add some sizzle at the top of the rotation.
He’s very much an ace. And he’s relatively young.
Career ERA+ of 109, career FIP of 3.65. He’s the definition of good, not great.
Unless, of course, you believe his breakout this year is his new normal. that’s a big gamble, but some GM will take it.
I’ll have what you’re smoking if Corbin’s an ace. I’d like more than one season in his career where he posted top of the rotation pitcher to consider him an ace. I don’t think he’s even a top 40 pitcher
He’s easily in the top 40….though is he in the top 20…that’s a much harder sell. His numbers line up very closely with Zach Wheeler….including the big bump up in 2018. He’ll get paid like a bottom half #1…but he’ll pitch like a solid #2.
Ivan Nova and Josh Harrison for Sonny Gray and a middling prospect.
Except Josh Harrison is a free agent (unless the Pirates pick up his two option years).
Pittsburgh missed the chance to sell high on Harrison and they are likely to nontender him.
Am I the only one who doesn’t think the Astros should sign a starter? They have two perfectly capable starters wasting away in their bullpen and I feel bad for them because it’s impacting their earning power. Collin McHugh can slot back in to the rotation and they can shift Brad Peacock back in there too. Last season the guy had 21 games started, went 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 132 IP and they don’t keep him in the rotation??
Exactly. TOR options Verlander and Cole are already more than most teams. They will have Whitley, James, Peacock and Armentaros to consider. McHugh was pretty solid out of the pen. Not sure if they move him back to the rotation or not after this year for him… would be shocked if Morton doesn’t accept the QO. I think the Astros will offer the QO anyway.
Yeah so they could easily have Morton back too, plus the young AND experienced arms capable of starting. Save the money for the regular season upgrades!
Twins are going to have 50-70MM to spend – would be shocked if they aren’t in on some of this.
As a huge Yankees fan. They need PITCHING badly. Need a #2 starter and a #4 starter in the worst way. Severino is ur #1 and Masahiro is ur #3. Then let one of the kids take the ball as ur 5th starter. Plus Montgomery will b back by the end of the year hopefully. He’s a legit 5th starter as well.
The only big money guys I want would b Corbin and Harper. Because I think moving forward they have to have Stanton and Judge DH more. So a 3 way DH/corner OF rotation will keep those 3 fresh and hitting like they can. Harper could tee off at the short porch in right.
Second order of business is finding a first basemen. I don’t wanna watch Bird hit .150 again. (I even think .150 is higher then what he actually was). If they can’t swing a trade for a legit guy then sign a vet stop gap.
No need for a SS. Torres can play short this season until DiDi is ready. And there r plenty of guys who can play enough second (Torreyes, Wade, resign Walker to a 1 year contract) that there’s no need to sign Machado. Andujar is perfectly capable at third. And Machado really isn’t a great defensive shortstop. Plus I think he wants to only play short and DiDi is the lefthanded balance in the lineup right now. Out of the regular him and Gardy were the only lefty hitting regulars. (Not counting bird because he wasn’t hitting anyway).
So in conclusion; 2 starters, 1B, resign Walker, Britton and DRob, swing for the fence at Harper… if they don’t get Harper not a big loss.
Whoever is the third corner outfielder will have to be able to play center as well. Hicks can’t play every game and he does go on the DL a lot. Harper isn’t a center fielder. Like it or not, Ellsbury is most likely the guy.
No need to resign Walker. Daniel Murphy would be a better choice if they go the FA route instead of in house.
Voit has earned the right to be the first baseman.
Lol about Ellsbury!
RED SOX!
Weird that Seattle didn’t come up. Dipoto has hinted at the team taking a step back to reload in what would presumably be a partial rebuild. If that’s the case, moving Paxton and Leake would make a ton of sense.
I can certainly see the Cardinals giving up a good young starter like Weaver, Gant, or Poncedeleon if they were offered the right return.
Yeah, the last thing the Red Birds need is another starter. With Waino, Mikolas, Martinez, Watcha, Weaver, Flaherty, Reyes, Gomber, Poncedeleon, and Hudson, I am pretty sure they aren’t worried about their rotation. Left-handed relievers, and a left-handed power bat should be their focus.