The Phillies fell to the NL East rival Braves on Saturday, enabling Atlanta to clinch the division and continuing a difficult few months for Philadelphia. While the Phillies have gone just 25-34 since the All-Star break to fall out of playoff contention, the team’s still 78-76 and on pace for its first .500 or better campaign since 2012. And with plenty of spending room and multiple superstars set to reach free agency over the winter, the Phillies are in for a “fascinating” offseason, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports observes (video link).
The Phillies will head into the offseason with just under $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, as Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates, but that number could decrease, per Rosenthal. Aside from ace Aaron Nola and slugger Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies will be “open to trading” just about everyone during the winter, Rosenthal reports, though he notes it’s “unlikely” they’ll end up moving first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana has come up as a speculative trade candidate, and moving him would open up first for Hoskins (who has struggled in the outfield), dealing the former “would be an admission by the Phils that they never should have signed Santana in the first place,” Rosenthal says. Santana was one of the prize pickups of last winter for the Phillies, who inked him to a three-year, $60MM deal and have since seen the longtime Indian, 32, turn in a respectable season.
Assuming both Santana and second baseman Cesar Hernandez return in 2019, the right side of the Phillies’ infield should be set. The left side may be another story, though, as the Phillies have gotten mediocre or worse production from their options at both shortstop and third base this year. That could put them in the market for pending free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado – a long-speculated target – and signing him or someone else could put the club in position to move third baseman Maikel Franco or another young infielder, Rosenthal observes.
Shifting to the outfield, Rosenthal floats the idea of the Phillies sending center fielder Odubel Herrera elsewhere to land a veteran for their rotation. After a terrific run from 2015-17, Herrera has taken steps backward this year. Nevertheless, as a soon-to-be 27-year-old with an appealing contract (he’s owed between $25.5MM to $46MM through 2023), Herrera would likely draw a fair amount of interest on the trade market. Parting with him would enable the Phillies to flip one of the younger members of their rotation “for something else they might need,” Rosenthal posits.
Whether the Phillies need to do anything of note with their starting staff is up for debate, though, as Nola, offseason signing Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have each amassed at least 23 starts and 2.1 fWAR so far this season. Thanks largely to that quintet, Philly’s rotation ranks sixth in the majors in fWAR (15.3). Further, each member of that group is under control next season, with Arrieta’s $25MM representing the lone lofty salary of the group.
Dating back to the July All-Star break, the Phillies have fallen well out of contention in the NL East – a division they led at the midway point- and the wild-card hunt, but it still seems they’re on the right track. Indeed, general manager Matt Klentak indicated as much a week ago. He and the rest of the Phillies’ brain trust are now set to spend the coming months trying to put the club in position to snap its soon-to-be seven-year playoff drought. With a good amount talent on hand to build around, plenty of money to spend, and Machado, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw among the offseason’s potential free agents, the Phillies should be one of the majors’ most interesting teams to watch in the coming months.
Honestly, See Phillies as biggest threats’ to sign Harper and/or Machado, really respect willingness to spend, progress they’ve made, but will missing the playoffs last month of the season, hurt their FA chances?
I don’t think they have a chance for machado but I do think Harper is a realistic option. I think he is going to go after the most money to where contention won’t matter right away. And the nationals have multiple players hitting the market the following year they need to resign or if they want to rebuild trade those players so resigning Harper isn’t a real possibility.
They absolutely have a chance for machado. Anytime a team is 130MM below the luxury tax line and has a respectable roster around it they have a chance to sign anyone. They have to be one of the favorites for Manny. Los Angeles probably isn’t going to retain him and if NY isn’t willing to pony up the money I can’t see a spot that makes any more sense for player and team.
Machado to Atl makes sense! At least to me! I hope Atl at least makes a run at him!
Let him play ss or 3rd and Camargo play the other! Package Swanson, Riley, and pitching prospects for a legit ace!
Atl will not likely spend the money, but they have the money to afford Machado!
Please, explain why you’d be ok w/ a decline in Defense at one of the prime positions, to deal w/ the spoiled whiner MM?
Swanson is the best SS of those 3, and he needs to stay there to anchor the defense. Atlanta would be better off going after Nolan from CO w/ pitching prospects.
Atlanta sends: Kyle Wright, Austin Riley, Luiz Gahora & Alex Jackson
CO sends: Nolan Arenado & LH reliever.
If Atlanta feels it wouldn’t be able to extend Arenado, then reduce the price or skip it.
I would definitely be ok with Arenado! However I am not sure he is available!
That mix of mediocre prospects is not getting you Arenado, let alone him and a reliever. He is a top 5-10 player in the game.
Only one year of control and there are some good pieces there
As much as I would love to have Machado..only at third though..the Braves will be better served using that money to sign a different place on the roster. Though I have no dillusion that Camargo is just as good as Machado, he is still pretty good. The Braves simply have bigger problems.
!
@Hiflew forgetting what Machado brought back already?
Isn’t he also a rental? That makes a huge difference.
Arrenado is not being traded… certainly not for that package.
I hate to burst your bubble but Camargo is a much better defender than Swanson. Camargo wasn’t originally a 3B. He was a middle infielder.
I agree we don’t need Machado though, or Arenado for that matter. Riley should be given a shot. Truthfully he should have been up second half of this year with Camargo shifting and Swanson benched but ATL won’t do it because they want to keep spinning Swanson story as a franchise piece stubbornly refusing to admit he’s a mediocre player at best.
Your enthusiasm is contagious! I realize you just won the division! However, a period (.) often works well as a form of standard punctuation!
How do they “not have a chance for Machado?”
You’re kidding me. Riches owners in the league with minimal on the books
They started to lose it before September. Just a young squad that’s not all the way there yet, but I think as a Phillies fan, you can be somewhat happy with the year. Very improved team. They will be major free agent players, that’s for sure. Lots of dough to spend. If Kapler can stay out of his own way, some of the kids materialize, and they make some big free agent adds, watch out NL East.
Carlos santana for jacoby ellsbury
Move hoskins to 1st. Trade kingery or crawford to the padres whom would have interest. Sign machado.
Altherr williams and herrera
Sold!!!
Altherr Williams and Herrera would be a bottom 5 outfield in all of baseball. Also not sure why you’d sell extremely low on Kingery and Crawford when you have a guy who has proven he’ll be no more than slightly below average in Franco sitting at 3rd. In your scenario you still aren’t signing machado so I don’t really see why or for what you trade Kingery or Crawford for.
Never mind, You are signing machado but in that scenario I’d be more inclined to play Kingery or Crawford instead of Franco and play manny at 3rd. SS may have been his preference but if philly is offering the most cash I don’t think that’ll really matter. They’d need to address their OF regardless because altherr Williams and Herrera is terrible.
If they sign machado it would push kingery or crawford to 3rd assuming Hernandez at 2nd. Idc what they do with Franco.
Also Williams altherr Herrera iant the starting OF. It’s what the Phillies would have to work with if they sign Harper.
The Padres would have little interest in either of those players, unless maybe they were all but handed to them for free. They should be set in middle IF for the next 7 years with Urias & Tatis.
I get what you are doing. Move the difficult contract to a part of the line up that will put Rhyse back in his natural position. That’s a tough pill to swallow as Santana is still a productive ball player though.
productive? I’m sorry but how many contending teams feature a 1st baseman hitting .220–.230 over an ENTIRE season? None. I realize that people don’t value BA as much as these new, game-changing Gabe Kapler stats like DICE, VORP, DIPS and LIPS, and using VERSATILITY as the rationale for playing guys out of position and throwing away baseball games defensively…yea, the Phillies had a ton of problems that contributed to the collapse, but open your eyes and see the basic truth before trying to sugar-coat Carlos Santana with saberstats–he will not be a contributing factor to a Phillies postseason push with the ‘production’ he has. Look around the league; it doesn’t happen.
Must be you didn’t see Altherr, Williams, nor Herrera play baseball this season…all three would be fourth outfielders on a competitive team
Phillies are getting one of Machado or Harper. If not both.
Gee, I hope someone explained that to the players and their agents. They might be under the misconception that they get to choose.
Facts.
We’re getting to the time of the year where fans make trade proposals and contract predictions that will never ever come true… oh boy
Yep this is the time when Braves and/or Cardinals fans think they can get Mike Trout or some other star player on a small market team for 3-4 of their AAAA players. Happens every year like clockwork.
You referred to Kyle Wright and Austin Riley as mediocre prospects, so I’m guessing any prospects not named Vlar or Eloy are AAAA players to you
Angels are not small market! Yes hit a nerve lol.
But yes prediction time of the year is here. It is kind of fun to me to see the passion from fans making proposals. Just hope this off season the old trade Trout comments go away!
It’s entirely possible and really probable that neither Machado or Harper signs with Philadelphia. This would leave them with a less than average group of position players with no help coming from the minors. This scenario highlights why rebuilds are so difficult.
There is a pretty big hurdle just to get 1 of Harper/Machado. Cubs Dodgers Yankees can all spend the same and have much more appealing teams.
My thoughts exactly.
But those teams don’t all have the cap space, though they can go over, and I don’t really see the need to spend that amount on one player, when they don’t “need” the player.
The difference is those teams aren’t as desperate as the Phillies, and their owner, are. Middleton sees the empty seats at the ballpark; Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees don’t have that problem. The Phillies will land one of Harper or Machado, even if it means outbidding everyone else.
Camargo has proved himself in A town this season and this postseason could possibly cement him at the hot corner while taking the Braves out of the Machado sweepstakes while giving Riley another year to determine his status as future cornerstone or major trade bait. Braves sign Corbin, make a big splash trade for realmuto and sign markakis to a 1-2 year deal with another year option. With Pache in the wings I don’t see the Braves going too hard after Harper, his defense is horrid and that contract is going to kill a franchise that can’t afford it 3/4 way through..
I don’t mind extending Nick a year. I think a move to the outfield may be in order for Riley or Camargo though if the Braves miss out on Harper.
Phillies are bad. Outside of nola they have little to no way of keeping up with braves. Signing a washed up harper to man an outfield spot with negative defensive value and machado is a joke. Machado would be better of staying on dodgers who have one of the best farms to go along with major league talent also deep pockets. I get that philly is a big market but outside of the eagles neither the phillies or sixers are worth mentioning honestly.
Either your a Philly hater or an idiot, which one are you?
Remember last year when rhys hoskins was actually good? What happened this year? Regression from all areas. Some of you need to understand how to construct a team….adding two high priced free agents doesnt instantly bring you to the top of the divison. Nola is the only real prize on the team, arrieta has regressed and will only continue to do so as he ages.
First off, it’s a guarantee Machado won’t be signing with the Dodgers this off season. Why, you ask. Because A) He has mentioned countless times his heart is to be a Yankees player. You think the Yankees aren’t going to be somewhat in the race for him? B) His second choice in a team is his love for an east coast team. The last I looked Los Angeles is about as far away as you can get from the east coast. C) He would want to play on a team with a chance to win it all. How many times have the Dodgers had that window of opportunity the last 10 years.(Let me help you, 7 out of 10. That’s a positive.) But how many of those years did they play in the World Series? 1 And how many World Series did they win in those 7 of 10 years? A big 0! And this was with a team that bought players year after year to push them over the top to win it all.
After Machado sees the Dodgers choke yet again this year. (Even after trading for him at the trade deadline.) Do you really believe he will have any love or faith in signing with the Dodgers in the offseason? When he can sign with the Yankees who have been in the playoffs 5 of the last 10 years, won a World Series and can outspend the Dodgers for anyone they really want. Or the Phillies who also were in the playoffs 4 of those 10 years, was in 2 World Series and won one of those World Series and lost one World Series in those last 10 years. Oh, and they have the money to outspend the Dodgers and are on the east coast too.
Keep dreaming blue. Because that is what you will be, after the Dodgers lose another playoff year and Machado signs elsewhere. Blue.
” Why, you ask. Because A) He has mentioned countless times his heart is to be a Yankees player.”
When has Machado, since becoming a professional athlete, EVER publicly stated that? Not some “rumor” that has been “reported” but him actually stating it? NEVER.
” C) He would want to play on a team with a chance to win it all. ”
Um…Dodgers do have a chance to win it all, but you seem to be mistaken that pro athletes (and teams for that matter) care more about “winning” than they do about money. Money talks, more than anything else in sports. Find me one player who took significantly less money to play for a “winner” rather than more to play for a loser. It just happens that most teams that have the most money to offer also offer the best opportunity to win because they can spend their money on great players.
Do I think the Dodgers sign Machado? Nope. Harper is more likely, but if they decide they want to keep Machado they can definitely be in the running.
At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
What did you not get? Was it the part where the phillies arent good or the part where you get neither manny and harper? Lol philly fans clutching for straws hopefully they can make a run sitting 9 games back. Braves only have more ammo in the farm to unload next year in addition to salary space what chance to phillies really stand?
The Braves can enjoy their first round elimination.
Phillies will improve a minimum 12 games this year. They have multiple pitchers in the minors and oodles of money to buy Corbin, Happ or another pitcher of their choosing. Harper is not washed up at 26.
“Phillies are bad”…..not….
When your 26 years old and your best statistical season is a distant memory you can call it “washed up” not even accounting for his terrible defense. Phillies already have one terrible contract in santana dont need to add another in harper.
Since when is 3 seasons ago a distant memory? To call Harper “washed up” at 26 is pretty ignorant of you. He’s got at least 8 more seasons of baseball before he’d even think of retiring. If you had said overhyped or overrated, I’d agree with you. A 26 yr old that’s not even halfway through his career can’t be “washed up”.
Why is everyone pretending like he isn’t going to the Yankees?
For the same reason “everyone pretended” Ohtani was going to the Yankees.It ain’t over till it’s over.
But Harper grew up Yankee fan, Ohtani is fan of [Insert West Coast team]
Well then it’s settled and Trout will be a Phillie in 2021.
All players grow up a fan of a team, most never play for that team.
I meant Machado
Why do the Yankees need an outfielder? Are they using Judge as trade bait?
Machado and Moustakas to Phillies. Left side would be solid. Trade Santana and move Hoskins to 1B. OF of Quinn, Herrera and Atherr/Williams. They could even try and sign Keucher. They could trade Franco and Bour for some bullpen help or take a chance on a veteran pitcher or improve the outfield.
The Dodgers may be able to keep Machado. They may not offer him as much money as the Phillies, but Machado knows the Dodgers. He knows he’ll be on a contending team every year. He knows he will be in an excellent organization. And it’s LA. I can see him staying in LA at a slight discount. Phillies will have to pay to get him to move. Seagar at second Manny at short, Turner at third.
Dodgers have Cory Seager coming back to play SS next year. Turner is locked in at 3B. Manny isn’t gonna play second base, not for the Dodgers or anybody else. The Dodgers will let Manny walk. Since Manny has voiced his preference to play on the east coast, I think the Braves (if they have the money) or the Mets (Do they still have any post-Madoff money!) are the two most likely landing spots. Don’t think the Yankees will mess with their solid infield and the Red Sox don’t need many.
Manny also knows that the D team is an underachieving team playing in the weakest division in baseball (other than the ALCentral).
y a w n . . .
Kapler’s approach to hitting that he implemented this year has been a complete failure. True, we see more pitches per at bat, but that led to more hitting-with-two-strikes situations. Really good hitters like Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and the like didn’t panic when they batted with two strikes because they knew they could put the bat on the ball more often than not. That’s not the case with the Phillies’ hitters. The end result? Yeah some players (Hernandez, Herrera) have hit more homers this year than before, but all those rally-killing strikeouts that came on those two strike counts have killed us..We average slightly less than 10 Ks per game. hard to score runs when over one-third of your allotted 27 outs result in nothing more than a cool breeze. To wit, Cesar Hernandez should not be leading this team in strikeouts. Kapler’s one-size-fits all approach to hitting.is wrong.
The 24.57% k rate as a team is just one of Kapler’s failures. His shifts have been the least effective in MLB which has helped lead to the worst team defense since Fangraph’s started tracking in ’03. He has been a failed experiment (like playing Santana at 3rd) with a pocket full of excuses. Hi statement after a recent loss “…help our fielders be the best version of themselves and to help the collection of defenders to be the best version of themselves,” is just more of his babble.
Well, Cat, that approach to hitting is gonna be with us until Kapler is sent packing. Remember, the Phillies just fired all their minor league hitting coaches because they want Kapler’s approach to be taught throughout the system! I wish this guy would go back to the beaches of California and just work on his tan. And while he’s at it, tell him to take Klentak with him!
Phillies have a lot of money to spend this off-season. Big problem is Klentak will be the guy spending it. If three years and $60 million to fortify(?) a position we already had filled is an example of Klentak’s wisdom, I’ll pass.
“Phillies just fired all their minor league hitting coaches because they want Kapler’s approach to be taught throughout the system!” There went the meal I had an hour ago.
My crystal ball says Machado to the Cubs to play short. Shifting Baez to 2nd. And Harper to the Yanks to play Left. And then having a rotating DH situation between Stanton, Judge and Harper. Gardner is a great dude, but he’s on the decline for a couple years now. He may have that option picked up as a 4th/5th OF. Or may retire and join Boone’s staff lol.