Some would accuse statistically-inclined baseball fans and (in particular) writers of sapping the joy out of the game. Quite often, though, that approach to America’s Pastime offers avenues for extending the exhilaration of the game as observed in real-time. Today’s offering from Craig Edwards of Fangraphs is one such example. In it, he examines — and endeavors to value — the bewitching effects Cubs star Javy Baez seemingly has on opposing defenders when he’s buzzing around the basepaths.
Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:
- There’s good news for the Indians on the progress of southpaw Andrew Miller, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The key reliever says he’s feeling good after a well-placed cortisone shot to his shoulder. That has given all involved some optimism that he’ll not only return late in the season, but will hit the ground running in time to prepare for the postseason. As Miller puts it: “I do feel it’s all in line right now and we’re getting ready to take off.” Of course, Miller’s showing the rest of the way will also be a major factor in deciding the outcome of his forthcoming trip onto the open market.
- A compelling postseason effort last year from Brandon Morrow was no doubt fresh on the collective mind of the Cubs organization when it signed him to be the team’s next closer. Though Morrow has been outstanding, he’s now dealing with arm issues and seemingly facing a tougher path back than Miller. As Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports, Morrow will attempt to throw from the mound on Sunday in a test that could make or break his hope to begin working toward a late-September return.
- While there aren’t any postseason implications involved, the Pirates are hoping to get two of their players back as well, as Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Whether or not that’ll come at the MLB level isn’t yet clear, but the Bucs say they want to find “some type of competition” to end the year for infielder Jung Ho Kang and righty Chad Kuhl. Both have missed lengthy stretches, Kang with a wrist injury that arose in the wake of a an even longer layoff due to a DUI conviction and Kuhl with arm troubles. As Brink notes, it seems Kang’s option will likely be declined regardless, but the club still stands to gain information that could help dictate whether it pursues a reunion (and, if so, at what price). As for Kuhl, team director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk says the organization “would like him to get up to game intensity, game speed, before the end of the season so he has a basic general health status on the forearm and the elbow” — that is, the two areas that have caused problems for him thus far.
Baez has been getting lucky that his over aggressiveness hasn’t cost his team yet, but it will. He shouldnt be getting credit for opposing teams playing bad defense.
Right. The Brewers and Cardinals need no help whatsoever in screwing things up in their own games.
Hes this generations Derek Jeter…. just better power
And better defense
Are you suggesting that Derek Jeter with better power and defense is a bad thing? Because it’s a pretty awesome thing.
he will never be the character of derek jeter.
Javy is not a robot, he is a bona fide character, in every sense of the word.
What’s wrong with his character?
Not white enough, I’m assuming.
I love Javy, even as a Yankees fan, but nobody can shine Jeter’s cleats.
Assuming. That’s a pretty dangerous word, where in that statement was anything said about the color of ANYONES skin?
Jeter appeared more professional while he was playing. Regardless of whether you think one way or the other is better, it’s pretty clear to anyone watching that he carried himself differently than Baez on the field.
If he’s on your team, you love him. If he’s not, you make up reasons not to like him. Would never expect a Cards fan to appreciate him.
True. I’ve been following him since the minors (back when it was the only thing worth following for Cubs fans,) and back then, I could tell that he was going to be that guy.
@johnrealtime
Why are you making this a racial thing? By the way genius Jeter parents are of different races anyway so how is this a “white” thing?
Javy has gone 1st to home 3x in the last 4 games on balls hit to mid CF. Twice aganst Lorenzo Cain and now Harper. Cain is near elite on defense and Harper is no slouch. El Mago gets in opposing defenses heads. It does not always work out, certainly. But the pressure he puts on a defense and pitcher (see Chacin pick off attempts) is indisputable.
Harper is a slouch on defense.
@cxcx he has a cannon for an arm though
True, but when you jog to balls that cancels out any advantage the strong arm brings.
Oh stanly the manly is making stuff up on Baez out of envy. Sure pal whatever you say …he just “jogs” to balls on defense. Hahaha boy I do not have to even make you look foolish … you did it all by yourself!!
And to boot even if he did (not sure why he would not be benched for “jogging” to field his grounders) but how would that cancel out his cannon arm? Haha explain that one genius
And while your at it please educate us all on how ANY infielder can “jog” to field ground balls … boy you are certainly NOT the sharpest knife in the drawer so to speak
Pretty sure he’s talking about Harper, not Baez.
Talking about Harper man lol
Harper is negative 14.4 as of yesterday on fangraphs.
Isn’t he playing out of position too? He’s a right fielder
He’s a catcher out of position in right then further out of position in center…
Surely he deserves some credit for at least partially causing the bad defense, does he not? Also, kind of hard to be over aggressive when its working out way more times than not, just fyi.
He does deserve credit but he is one of those players you hate when he isn’t on your team. He is not a clean cut boy like Mike Trout so everyone will hate him for his flare and cocky attitude.
He does. He is someone you will hate if he doesn’t play for your team but love if he is on yours because of his SWAG. I used a different word in my original post which was apparently not approved. I don’t understand why if a post is pending approval due to some magic words it wasn’t approved since said word isn’t bad.
I suggest reading the link to the Craig Edwards article. To simplify, if you are stealing a base and there is an error on the throw, it is a caught stealing, which is negative. Somewhat applies going first to third and there is an error on the throw and score.
From his breakdown, figure Baez should have about one added win added to his WAR. Keep in mind, this applies to all base runners.
Or—–you can look it at this way……he has been unlucky in the couple of times his over aggressiveness has cost the Cubs. I’m willing to guess that he is about 17 out of 20 on “50/50” plays while running the bases this season. He and Kris Bryant are in the upper echelon of baserunners in the game.
Boy—on the other hand—Addison Russell and Albert Almora–both good runners—are absolutely a brain cramp in waiting while on the bases. Their brain mistakes have cost the Cubs on the bases at critical times this season.
Overall, the Cubs have to be one of the best running teams, especially first to third, second to home, first to home in baseball. They are ultra aggressive and seems to be willing to take that chance to try to create additional runs scored.
Yep, Russell has been a train wreck since the injuries/divorce issues last season. The Cubs are better off trading him while he still has some value left. Baez or even Machado is a major upgrade in the offseason.
You’re an idiot. That is all.
This is one of the dumbest comments I’ve ever read. He’s been “getting lucky”? He has like a 90% success rate maybe higher. He totally throws fielders out of their comfort level. Not to mention if they do actually make a good throw he has that killer hook slide to avoid their tag. He is one of the top base runners in baseball and that cannot be disputed.
Welp, pack your bags, boys. No more comments necessary here
The only dispute I would have is that I would suggest he is THE top base runner in all of baseball
White Sox fan?
Nothing here is indisputable with these guys. I have been following baseball for 70 years and have not seen anything like Baez since 42.
When you are aggressive you put pressure on the defense and force errors so of course he should get credit for his base running instincts and agressiveness.
Now I would love to hear you explain how he is “getting lucky”?
Is Jung Ho Kang ever going to stop getting chances?
He’s coming off an injury.
Not relevant. The question still stands.
I agree coming off an injury is not being “given a chance” but that makes the original question even more odd. The Bucs “gave him a chance” once after the DUIs came to light. As for chances plural, I don’t know what the reference is.
Maybe they’re referring to his winter ball cameo. But like you said, the Pirates want to see what they still have in him. Guys who beat women get chances if they’re talented, why can’t he. I don’t condone drinking and driving but people do it. Pirates President Frank Connelly has a DUI charge, Hugo Lloris, the keeper for world champions France, and many others have done it and got a chance to play so why can’t Kang.
Kang has only been given 1 chance so far. He has not had another DUI (that I know of) since the least one in Korea. He has only been under control of the Pirates since he was granted his work visa earlier this season. When he was in winter ball, that was on his own. If I am the Pirates, I still want to see if he can get back to where he was in 2016 unless he has another legal issue. Most other teams would be doing the same thing that the Pirates are doing if Kang was their player. I see nothing wrong in trying to see what he has yet this year and into winter ball if he can get healthy in time.
Funny how DUI the last few years has been upgraded to such a severe “crime” to that of murderers and REAL criminals.
Why aren’t you a “real” criminal if you knowingly put other people at risk?
johnsilver… Because sometimes people DIE due to drunk drivers.
Cubs can finish the season out without Morrow but I don’t think they can win it all in the postseason without him.
It’ll certainly be a nerve wracking postseason without him, that’s for sure. Maybe a little less so if Kintzler and Duensing can do like, anything positive on the field for the team.
Astros certainly did pretty well last year without Giles.
But unlike Giles, Morrow was pitching great.
I don’t need goofy stats to be able to tell when a baserunner is negatively affecting the other team. I have two eyes to do that.
It tells you how much of an effect it is in relation to the average.
Morrow has been injury prone for years. Toronto and San Diego.
Sure was good for the Dodgers last year
I loved Morrow when he was in Toronto. Good player, and always a competitor. Hope he gets healthy and finds success soon.
Baez is truly one of the best base runners I have ever seen. His speed, agility, cat-like reflexes, and almost magician-like maneuvers, are absolutely out of this world.
I’ve witnessed about 10-15 plays where I was 99% sure he would be called “out,” yet there he is, performing one of his magic tricks, and sure enough is called “safe.”
Javier “Houdini” Baez.
but but but
…Chris Archers peripherals are so much better than his bottom line stats, he’s on ace! – these writers 3 years running now 😛
What does Archer have to do with this article?
I never thought Baez was capable of being an MVP candidate, but here he is. Hitting ~0.300, >30 HR’s, >100 RBI’s, gold glove candidate, one of the best on the basepaths (if not the best), and extremely versatile.
He won’t be a gold glove candidate unfortunately due to his versatility. But he should be
Very true statement. I really believe that Baez is the most “talented” defensive player in baseball, but is still prone to making the simple error. Between his speed, range, ability to release quickly, strong arm he is at the top of the sport—however, some careless errors keep him from being completely in the “best” defensive player conversation.
See Game 7, 2016 World Series….dumb error throwing from knee at second base position when he had plenty of time to make a normal throw and mishandling a routine double play turn by trying to unnecessarily barehand the throw from Russell when he had plenty of time to use the glove.
Baez is like Hamilton on the base paths in the way he makes fielders try to rush things to get the ball back to the infield. Speed puts pressure on the defense and it will help the team far more that hurt it. Too bad for Hamilton that he can’t hit like Baez to get on base as much as he does. If he did, Hamilton would be the one we all would be talking about.
Bader is going to join this conversation once he gets the chance to play an entire year next year. I’m still amazed when he managed to go first to home on an infield single and almost got up to the runner coming from second base. The guys FAST, fun to watch
Caught up*
Thanks, but not about Harrison Bader though. No where, hes not mentioned… but glad you’ve decided to chime in on every comment today.
Some people like to discuss baseball because they love the game. I’m not really sure why that’s a bad thing.
I specifically acknowledged that he wasn’t mentioned, that was my entire point. He doesn’t have the national media coverage but he’s comparable to Baez on the basepaths. Once he gets more exposure, there will probably be a similar discussion.
Miller back to the Bronx. They’ll likely sign a bunch of FAs might as well do them all at once because of the draft picks.
Yankees have a solid bullpen, they’re most likely looking for starting pitching this offseason. I could see the Cubs going after a top reliever like Miller with Brandon Morrow’s injury history and the Cubs could use a lefty late in games to be more flexible with their matchups with Morrow and Carl Edwards.
This entire Baez discussion needs to be retitled “Haters gon’ hate.”
Or “homers gon’ home”….
Baez has that face you just want to punch. Ala Molina. They wear this attitude, like they are better humans or something. Baez is overrated and comparing him to Jeter is sacrilegious. Like people comparing Lebron to Jordan. They are good enough to be a name, but they are not great enough to surpass legends.
So Baez makes you feel insecure and small? He’s a beast, so I kinda get it… but Sorry that’s a “you” problem, not his. Jeter is the most overrated, overhyped athlete who ever lived. He didn’t have half the talent or athleticism that Baez has, so stop nonsense comparisons. He’d probably be a much better owner/GM than Jeter too, though that’s not saying much. As for LeBron, his creepy obsession with surpassing Jordan from day 1 of his career ruined his reputation, and put far too much pressure on himself. LeBron shrinks under pressure, and his need to have stars around him to take that pressure off effectively ends any discussion about him being the GOAT.