Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) today, prior to his team’s final game of what ended up as a 66-96 campaign. Here are some of the most pertinent items of Preller’s chat, in regards to what his front office has ahead for the coming offseason…
- The Padres have yet to post a winning record in Preller’s four full years as GM, and haven’t had a winning season of any sort since 2010. After another year of rebuilding and focusing on young talent, however, Preller believes the team can take a step forward competition-wise in 2019. “[We’re] starting to climb out of this point where it’s a development mindset, where we’re at the bottom part of the standings….From our standpoint next year we’re going to look to start to compete. You’ve got to get over .500 to do that,” Preller said.
- After last winter’s surprising signing of Eric Hosmer, San Diego could again pursue some of the bigger-name free agents in this year’s market, or (as they did at the trade deadline) look to acquire controllable starting pitching. “I think we start with: Never say no to anything,” Preller said. “It’s not like anything is off-limits. We’re open to every possibility, every situation.” In regards to potential trades, the GM noted that “In the last 12 months, any established players that have been put on the trade market, we’ve been part of those discussions. We’ve had other teams reaching out to us, wanting to tap into some of the resources we have in our system. I think that’ll be no different this offseason. We’ll evaluate the guys we have in our system, versus what we’re able to.”
- While San Diego could dip into its vaunted prospect depth to swing a trade or two this offseason, it would seemingly be surprising if the club dealt any of its top blue-chippers for the sake of immediate improvement. As Preller noted, his goal is to build a long-term contender: “Every decision we make is built toward a plan. What we’re not going to do is short-circuit that. The last few years, we’re building, really, to get away from the mindset of being average.”
- The Padres have approximately $51.4MM in guaranteed salaries committed to the 2019 payroll, with Preller saying “I feel like we’re going to have some financial flexibility because a lot of the players are younger players. We understand we’re at that point from a plan standpoint where we’re going to have to supplement from the outside – be it the free agent or trade route. We’ll look to do that in the next few months.”
- The bulk of next year’s payroll expenditures are due to the salaries of Hosmer and Wil Myers, and Cassavell thinks it possible that the Padres could try to move Myers due to the former first baseman’s position crunch. Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have earned more playing time in the corner outfield spots in 2019, leaving Myers perhaps at third base (where he struggled defensively, albeit in a small sample size) or maybe in a super-utility role at both corner infield and outfield spots. Of course, Cassavell also believes that Reyes or Renfroe could be traded to address the crowed corner outfield situation, and obviously either of those two younger players would be easier to deal given that Myers is owed at least $64MM through the 2022 season.
- Preller said that the team hadn’t yet decided on Myers’ role for next season, though Myers will be informed early so he can properly prepare heading into Spring Training. For his part, Myers believes that “with an offseason, I will absolutely be able to play third base.”
- Freddy Galvis could also be a factor at third base, as Preller expressed an interest in re-signing the veteran. Galvis hit .248/.299/.380 over 656 PA while appearing in all 162 games, appearing as a shortstop in all but five of those contests. Galvis hasn’t played the hot corner since 2014, but he’d have to shift into a utility role if he returns to San Diego, as the team plans to give more infield time to its top young players next year.
The fact that their first move was not to fire him, shows how doomed they are.
Another year of playing 162 futures games………….but never actually building anything for the future.
There’s a big difference between cultivating young talent and simply continuing to piece together cheap, lousy teams and rolling them out every day, year after year with no rhyme or reason…..
You cultivate young talent in the minors- not in the big leagues…
And they’ve been doing it for 8 years with not much to show for it
Preller can’t make a good trade to save his life
padreforlife can’t make a good comment to save his life
How this guy keeps his job is truly amazing
Rock Star GM…….
Like Bryce Harper, Carlos Santana and others, if the MLB sports media loves you, the fact that your team under performs more often then not is always someone else’s fault.
But when the team has a good stretch look who walks in the front of the parade.
All sizzle. Little steak.
Been watching this nonsense for over half a century.
Are you really blaming Washington’s lack of a bullpen that could get things done in the playoffs on Harper? Or Carlos Santana for not getting the Indians over the hump even though he was like their 10th best player?
Even Preller isn’t all that loved even though he’s done a pretty good job since 2015.
While S.D. is a small market club, they have some advantages if they could put a winner on the field including arguably the best weather anywhere in the continental U.S. to raise a family if living year round where you work is important to you. Can’t understand why for the most part of 50 years, the team has been a loser. I think it’s two WS appearances and no championships.
Are you blaming Washington’s bullpen on their lack of offensive production in the playoffs?
10th best player yet he snagged $60 for 3. Your argument enhanced Samuel’s statement.
As for Preller, another losing season and he’s done. Samuel did have a point regarding “rock star GM”. Jays had two; JP Ricciardi and Alex Anthopoulos. Riccardi’s status fizzled eventually and AA is still considered a rock star. AA was an average GM built up like a Hall of Famer.
Bryce Harper has an ops of .800 in the playoffs.
Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, Trevor Bauer, Cody Allen, EE in 2017. There’s nine. Please take your agenda elsewhere trimreaper, you’ve showed you don’t want to be objective, if my posts trigger you so much, ignore them. But if not, please read every word, not just the ones you want to see. Then discussions like this won’t have to happen
^JDGoat…so you avoided the lack of runs Washington has scored in the playoffs altogether? You’re sidestep says you didn’t read what I said, because Washington does struggle scoring runs in October. That might also explain why they can’t win the NLDS.
Not sure what you mean about discussions “like this”, because if you’re angry with me I really can’t help you. My agenda doesn’t have a prescription for your diatribe.
How you haven’t gotten banned is truly amazing
The Brewers won 68 games in 2015, and 73 games in 2016. In 2017, they were competitive. This year they won their division. “Rebuild” over.
All during Preller’s tenure.
Yet some people have the audacity to argue there’s only “one way” to build a winning team, and the “only” way to do it is to mimick the so-called Cubs and Astros model.
I’m constantly smh at some of my fellow Padre fans.
Brewers started their rebuild a year earlier
You mean the year before, when they finished above .500 at 82-80?
Sorry if it doesn’t fit your narrative, but some teams actually do what they have to do to win, and they do it in different ways. Are you so attached to losing and making excuses for Preller that reality means nothing?
You still haven’t explained the A’s or the Braves. Or why your “model” Cubs didn’t go to the WS last year and lost their division this year. I know why – it doesn’t fit your narrative!
Some people have no baseball history under their hat.
Padres rebuild started in 2016. All the teams you mentioned started rebuilding in 2015 or earlier.
No team will win the World Series every year no matter what they do. The Cubs were still only 1 game back of the best regular season record in the NL this year.
And how am I making excuses for Preller? He has not been good in the past 4 years.
Padres so-called rebuid started the day he took over – His own words. Moving the date is just buying into apologist propaganda, hype, and excuses. That is a fact.
Try again with the Brewers. And the Braves. And the A’s. The Brewers were 82-80 in 2014, then had two losing seasons. Tell me again about their “rebuild,” and how there’s only one way to do it.
If he hasn’t been good, why do you parrot his hype?
No the rebuild didn’t start the day he took over! He went and traded the farm for vets when he took over. The rebuild started when he traded those vets in the 15-16 offseason and on into the 2016 season.
Padres rebuild was always going to take longer because Preller has targeted younger guys with more upside.
When have I “parroted his hype?”
Why do you think he ate those big contracts for prospects? That was part of his “plan” that nobody seems willing to consider.
If he wanted to actually win in 2015, he would have replaced Black before the season started, not one third of the way in.
No it wasn’t part of the plan. He stupidly acquired those guys to try and compete. And what prospects did he supposedly get by eating those contracts? Hector Olivera?
Discounting the Brewers to make your point?
Why can’t you understand that every team that starts winning after a couple of down years did not, and does not need, to go through a BS “rebuild” (aka fire sale, cost-cutting, tear down, etc).
And I’m not specifically talking about any one team.
You have inside knowledge of this? Put on you critical thinking hat and use some deductive reasoning. It’s the only thing that makes sense.
Sure it makes sense in your delusional mind. I see a guy making a short-sighted attempt to try and contend by overpaying to acquire players past their primes and all playing the same position and then later realizing his mistake and having to pay to get rid of them.
The only prospect he acquired by eating salary was Tatis and it was his fault for giving Shields that bogus contract in the first place. What he should have done was not sign Shields and then outbid the White Sox for Tatis in 2015. Wouldn’t have cost nearly as much.
When you start calling people names, you’ve lost the argument.
I’m done with your peurile attitude.
If you’re going to use fancy words like “puerile” to try and sound smart, at least spell them correctly.
Point proven.
Yes, you prove my point all day.
By the way, what is with your flip-flopping? First you accuse me of “parroting Preller’s hype” and complain that the Padres haven’t come close to contention yet while other teams that have been rebuilding for almost as long have made the postseason. But then you later say “Why do you think he ate those big contracts for prospects? That was part of his ‘plan’ that nobody seems willing to consider” and defend the Galvis trade while making the same lame excuses for it that we have already heard a million and one times. I can’t tell if you are or aren’t a Preller fan.
Sigh … logic is not your friend, is it? Neither is reading comprehension.
Nor is it yours, apparently.
Galvis trade looks worse every day
Especially when ““Every decision we make is built toward a plan. What we’re not going to do is short-circuit that.”. Given the rest of the roster and the pathetic starting pitching staff they had out of spring training, they could have resigned Erick Aybar and they might have lost 5 more games but still finished deep in the cellar.
I don’t know whether to laugh or puke when I hear about this mystical “plan.”
Galvis deal was good for the team on many levels.
No it wasn’t! Galvis does nothing to help the Padres contend. They might as well have just released Enyel de los Santos because they traded him for essentially nothing.
That is a ridiculous comment. Did you watch any games?
If you like shoddy, keystone cops baseball, go watch some little league games.
I watched almost all the games and the Padres still sucked with Galvis. They could have sucked without him and they’d still have Enyel de los Santos, $6.8m extra to spend, might be drafting a couple spots higher in 2019 and would still be able to sign Galvis in the offseason if they want to.
Yes, it’s much easier to just downvote than it is to make a quality, well-thought-out argument isn’t it?
First off, I didn’t “down vote.” I couldn’t care less about some imaginary popularity contest.
Secondly, you obviously fail to see how important Galvis was in adding some stability and qualty to the team on a daily basis. Instead, you’d rather argue about some unproven prospect. I find that utterly ridiculous.
The goal is to win games, even if you know you have no shot at the post-season.
Galvis wasn’t important at all. That “stability and quality” or whatever is just going to be gone after 2018 and with that, the Padres’ record will regress. They aren’t going to play better in 2019 and beyond by virtue of having previously had Galvis at SS.
It doesn’t matter if de Los Santos is “some unproven prospect.” His odds of contributing to a contending Padres team were astronomically higher than Galvis’ for the sole reason that he’d still be around when they are contending.
No, the goal is the development of the young players and getting to find out who’s for real and who isn’t. All the extra wins from Freddy Galvis in 2018 did was hurt the Padres’ draft position.
Lol so you’d rather have a one-year rental than a player with control and upside during a rebuilding year just because the player with control and upside is “unproven?” What a dumb bunny hahahahaha! Let’s trade Tatis for another rental this offseason!
You’re comparing Tatis to a pitching prospect?
And you have the nerve to call me “dumb.”
No wonder everybody down votes you.
No, I’m exposing your logic for what it is. Flawed. Prospects may not be proven but you know what is proven? That Galvis was always going to be gone before the Padres were contending.
Anyone who isn’t dumb realizes just how bad the Galvis trade was. There was no benefit to that trade for the Padres.
You down vote me. At least have the balls to admit. You and I are the only ones reading this thread right now and a comment I posted 7 minutes ago has a downvote on it.
And there are many threads where the votes vastly outnumber the participants. What are you, like 16?
In addition, you know nothing about logic, and not much more about ML baseball.
Oooooooh you assumed my age! What an edgelord!
I forget more about baseball when I sneeze than you will ever know.
If anything, the James Shields trade could end up as one of the best trades of all time for the Padres end. But other than that, Preller has been pretty garbage.
The second Kimbrel trade, turning Yonder Alonso into Anderson Espinoza and turning Andrew Cashner’s last two months of control into Josh Naylor were also pretty great. But he has some clear misses on his ledger as well.
It was pomeranz for Espinosa. Also we got paddack for rodney. Mejia for a waiver pick up. . Owen Miller this year in the 3rd round. Luchessi in the 4th round. Hudson potts has just under 40 rompers the past two years. Will be in double a as a 20 year old.
They originally acquired Pomeranz for Alonso. Also, it’s short-sighted to refer to Brad Hand as a “waiver pick up.”
Right.
And who gave out the contract, and what did Mr. Shields do for the money the Padres paid him?
Tell me what has been and what is. If there is little there, the chance that a lot of good is about to happen…….
Tatis has done so much in bigs
So has Shields. But since the trade that “so much” hasn’t exactly been what the White Sox were hoping for…
So now comparing team to loser White Sox. Let’s not compare to Brewers or A’s let’s keep it real
Shields cost Padres ton of wasted $. You got Tatis ok guy who is unknown in bigs. That’s what Preller hanging hat on.
Are you really a Padre fan? although Tatis Jr. is unproven he still is a consensus top 5 prospect in all of baseball.
Fan police. So was Yoan Moncada. Can he play a game in bigs Mr Consensus.
Ready to throw Yoan into the dumpster? That was fast.
Moncada was a league-average player in 2018, a 97 OPS+ and 2 WAR as a 23-year old. People are letting the strikeouts blind them. He has skills, and could easily become a very good player by cutting down on the strikeouts, which is something lots of players are able to do.
Would you like a list of “consensus top 5” prospects that were total busts? I’ll put it together for you. How far back do you want me to go?
Here’s a taste to whet your appetite: Mark Appel … Yasmani Tomas …
Yasmany Tomas not Mark Appel were ever top-5 prospects in baseball.
Pretty sure Appel was, but maybe that was just the Astros list.
Try these: Jurickson Profar, Delmon Young, Byron Buxton. You want more?
The cost attributed to Shields was the price paid for Tatis. There’s more than one way to spend money or account for it.
That was still a lot of coin, whether it’s amortized via a contract payoff or not.
Should have not given Shields that contract then just outbid the White Sox for Tatis when he was still unsigned.
Don’t worry, they’ll be competitive in 2022, timeline is right on track.
Not sure how long they intend to keep Preller around when the team is making no progress.
Competitive in 2022? That’s a hell of a long rebuild they’ve been working on now. It’s a process obviously but if they aren’t competitive until 2022. Preller has to get the boot. We’ve yet to see an impact player come through the padres system. We’ve seen a few good regulars come up but that’s about it. If you see tatis/Urias/Mejia come up and struggle next year I’d expect that seat to be gettting pretty warm.
The so-called “timeline” changes every year. And it’s been changing since long before Preller got here.
Keep chasing that carrot.
Yeah, like are they going to sign Machado and move Myers????
Myers has no value
Myers was the Padres’ most-valuable position player in 2018. Not a ton of value, but he’s still relatively young and a team that could use him at 1B/DH would find value in him. Because Hosmer can’t be moved (bad contract, can’t hit, can’t field), Myers will probably be the one to go. ‘
For a team that seldom squanders $$$$$, it appears they have done so with Myers. Not that great of a hitter and Pads can’t find a place for him in the field where he doesn’t hurt them. He’s a natural for AL DH……………..
They’d have to eat like half of Myers’ contract or include prospects in the trade to move him. Do they do that?
Padres have many young prospects, supposedly #1 in the rankings. Preller has to make decisions whom to protect on 40 man roster to avoid losing them on rule 5 picks. So, rather than send away $$$$$, they have young prospect to send elsewhere. Pads now (seemingly) have RF & LF locked with Renfroe & Reyes, but Margot has floped in CF. Myers cannot play CF,or 3B, and Hosmer at 1B. So, he’s a man without a position on the Padres..
Yea big WAR Brian Kenny
Eric Hosmer won a gold glove…I guess they just give those out to anybody
He was the eleventh-worst defensive player in baseball this season, by pretty much any metric you want to look at: not the eleventh-worst first baseman, the eleventh worst overall defensive player in baseball. The list, btw, from worst to Hosmer, is: Hoskins, Castellanos, Harper, KDavis, Mancini, Andujar, THernandez, JDMartinez, Abreu, Dietrich, Hosmer.
And yes, they do give out gold gloves to just anybody; Rafael palmeiro won a gold glove in a season in which he played 13 games in the field. The gold gloves have long been a joke – writers give them out based on diving plays and highlights, but we have so many better ways to evaluate defense than that. Hosmer is bad at balls hit right to him, terrible at popups (I think we all remember when he literally lost an extra-inning game for the Padres this year because he couldn’t handle an infield fly), he’s below average at balls hit to his right. His one defensive skill he grades out as even average is scooping balls in the dirt.
They’ll trade Myers in a heartbeat and eat some of his contract if they get the chance.
At times he looked like he didn’t even want to be in MLB much less SD
Based on what? Here is something defensive metrics including UZR and DRS totally overlook, how the 1B is at catching balls thrown to him. A 1B will catch 7 times as many balls as plays they make in the field, but only those fielded balls are counted in UZR/DRS. Hosmer led the NL in scoops (balls in the dirt) that he turned into outs. Those are plays that otherwise would be errors and many would have resulted in runs scored. He also snagged another 18 errant throws in the air and turned those into outs. Since catching throws from other infielders is 7+ times more frequent than all other plays at 1B and Hosmer is one of if not the best at that part of the game, it’s logically inaccurate to try to call him a poor defensive 1B.
All the defensive metrics that show Hosmer as terrible incorporate his scoops/catches. They are offset by how bad he is at everything else defensively.
Myers was the Padres most valuable poition player in 2018? Did I read that right?
You can’t be serious. That was sarcasm, right?
I think he has some trade value, but let’s be realistic.
Lol who is interested in trading for an injury prone player without a position with a .763 OPS who is about to start making $22.5m a year?
Depending on which version of WAR suits you, he was first or second behind Renfroe.
I don’t use ANY version of WAR. It is a meaningless pseudo-stat. Heck, it’s not even a stat.
Preller’s team is playing in a home park that’s like a football field. The most impersonal park I’ve ever been in. Bigger then the Royals park or the one Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals played in. But that’s not all – the park is situated right by the ocean, so the marine layer knocks down fly balls. A pitchers park is an understatement.
The common sense approach that successful Royals and Cardinals teams took was to build a team based on defense, smart, quick, fast, strong armed players that have bat control to hit grounders through the infield and line drives down the line and in the gaps so they can run all day. With that in place average pitchers will look above average, and above average pitchers will come off as Cy Young contenders.
Do these young Padres look like that? Their big in-season trade was to acquire a young offensive catching prospect that cannot call a game, catch, or throw out base stealers. Not exactly building the team around Salvy or Yadi.
I’ve never thought the Rock Star GM had a clue. Can tell you this……
savvy, experienced, successful GM’s fight one another to be at the head of the line to trade with him.
Padres went for cheap inexpensive GM and got burned
Tell us how you really feel about Preller
Next year we are going to compete Preller stop the lies
Huh? That park is impersonal? You sure you’re not talking about Qualcomm? Petco Park has been ranked as one of the top stadiums in sports.
Also, since they moved the fences in, balls fly out of there pretty darn regularly. Heck one of our 19 year old prospects that weight 170 lbs took one straight center this past week in an exhibition game. The only place where it seems to take a moon shot is right center
Petco Park has a Park Factor of 1.032 which is ranked as 13th for 2018. It would certainly not be a pitcher’s park based on metrics.
Preller has no clue and so far Mejia can’t hit also.
Good point building team on speed and defensive
would of been nice. Instead strikeout players like Hosmer and Myers. He’s talking about wasting more $ on his bad choices. Stop Preller and go away
Mejia has three straight full seasons with an ops over .800….
Yea in minors
Hedges was actually better than Mejia in AAA. That Mejia could hit in the minors is not an indication that he will hit in the majors. He generates ridiculous bat speed, but that swing is ugly and major league pitchers are going to exploit it. Can he adjust? It took Hedges 3 seasons to figure it out.
Mejia’s going to be a stud! After all, it took an all-star closer and a young middle reliever to get him!
Even if the Hosmer move had worked out–let’s say he would have added 3 wins–you are still talking about a team that has a long way to go to .500. What’s a reasonable timeframe to expect genuine competitiveness?
The guy is doing fine and Dave Cameron is on board. Theo has his fair share of head scratchers as well, but is is sill one of the best. The differences between most GM’s is fairly minor. Most operate the same.
Real minor aka Brewers David Stearns
More like Dave “Shame-ron”
Met a guy working at the local hardware store today. Age 56 and huge Padres fan. Naturally we talked about Tony Gwynn and the shortened ’94 season. You stat geeks will never see .394 in your lives. Analyze that!
Two down votes you got is criminal. Tony Gwynn was a hitting magician.
Probably was downvoted for his silly digs at the end of his post. No need for that. Tony Gwynn was my favorite player growing up, saw him play in the 84 season in person when I was 10. I don’t think any “stat geek” has any problem with his game; he was one of the most unique hitters in baseball history. A singles hitter who never struck out; early in his career he was a terrific right-fielder and a great baserunner, before injuries and weight gain took their toll. Early in his career he drew lots of walks too; later on he began swinging a lot more and making a lot more contact, which kept his batting averages high but he wasn’t providing a ton of value because of all the double plays he was hitting into, as well as his serious defensive and baserunning shortcomings late in his career. He’s still my favorite Padre of all time and the best player in franchise history, and I’m sad he’s gone, but we can point out that hitting everything hard on the ground once he couldn’t run anymore was costing the team a bit. But ’84 was amazing and who knows what might have happened had he been able to finish the season.
*’94 was amazing. ’84 too.
It wasn’t silly. It was accurate. The analytical fans cannot take criticism. You’re one of them.
How so? I pointed out the deficiencies of my second-favorite player of all time. I think that’s realistic, not thin-skinned. I take an altruistic opinion on the skills of even my favorite players.
I disagree. You should see some people freak out when you tell them batting average doesn’t make a player good or not or tell them they’re not proving anything when they quote W-L. Those are people who can’t take criticism. The vast majority of people who use analytics realize you need to use a bit of the “old-school” stats to get the whole story.
I think more of the “old-school” thinkers are starting to get a little defensive since baseball is moving away from the way they think. Teams are almost all analytically driven, broadcasts are incorporating them more, more and more fans understand how they work. I think that’s why they make jabs at others, like the first poster did. It’s a little ironic anyways, the poster called others stat geeks, while quoting a stat. Not a great argument to make.
Anyone who cites W/L record for pitchers needs to be institutionalized.
Tony Gwynn never had a season where he posted a below league average OPS or OPS+ and his WAR was always in the positive even in his age 40 season. He put up an .847 OPS for his career. In his last relatively full season in 1999 at age 39 he hit .338/.381/.477/.858 in 446 PA over 110 games. At no point was he costing the team anything.
His 1994 season was insane. .394 BA .454 OBP .568 SLG A 1.022 OPS!! Baseball god-like numbers.
You’re looking at his offense in a vacuum; yes, he had above average OPS+ every year of his career – all of that was batting-average dependent. He was never a huge power hitter although he hit lots of doubles when he could still run. Later in his career he was still a good player, but he was losing some value because he was hitting into so many double plays and wasn’t providing any defensive value. His hitting was always fine, but there are other parts of baseball than just hitting. Gwynn was the best contact hitter I’ve ever seen, and I wonder what might have happened if the owners hadn’t locked out the players in ’94, but it’s okay to acknowledge his flaws as he got old and the injuries took their toll on his game. It happens to every player.
^Dipoto…what’s not a great argument is using data/numbers that could be used as theoretical numbers to obtain a final outcome, like WAR.
The vast majority of those using analytics rely heavily on analytics. The
“old-school” folks stand firm because the numbers are not based on certain guesses and estimates that make up the analytical statistics you want to hang you hat on.
Disagree all you want. The overwhelming majority of “stat geeks” can’t take it on this site. They cannot accept the other side’s opinion and your post simply makes a poor attempt at disproving that.
Some people hide behind so-called advanced stats to make themselves seem smarter.
The reality? Good players will always get on base at a higher rate … they will have a good batting average … they will tend to not strike out at a high rate … and, they will field their position well.
So, tell me SABR-geeks: which .200 hitter do want to build a team around? Which pitcher with an ERA of 5.00 do want leading your rotation?
“The numbers are not based on certain guesses and estimates…”. Ok. Explain ERA then, since “errors” are completely subjective. Tell me exactly what an error is.
Babe Ruth was a good player and he struck out a lot, especially in his era. Led the league in Ks 4 times. The difference between a 200 and 300 hitter, in a full season, isn’t that impressive. Give me power and on-base ability every day. And I don’t see any teams building around a “5.00” ERA pitcher, even though ERA is a made-up number because some guy in a booth decides what is and isn’t an error.
“Stat geeks” is a funny term. You may want to look at the teams in the postseason this year – they are all teams with huge analytics departments and teams that were way ahead of the curve on advanced stats. And one of them had the lowest payroll in baseball. The “geeks” won this year.
The typical SABR-nerd is an arrogant wanna-be statistician who probably never played the game above Little League, if at all. Most of them never studied any advanced math, particularly Statistics and Probability (beyond the Freshman requirement). And they absolutely HATE scouts, people with common baseball sense, and the concept of Errors, even though they have offered nothing to quantify physical mistakes.
Why did it take Bill James and many of his contempporaries so long for any baseball team to hire them? Well, it’s pretty hard to get a job in baseball after you’ve spent years calling baseball scouts and executives “morons, idiots, *-holes, imbeciles,” and worse. Especially when you’ve done it in print and by name.
And of all those arrogant, self-styled “sabermetricians,” Bill James is one of the few I respect: He actually admits when he’s been wrong, he’s quick to point out shortcomings and inaccuracies that abound in many “advanced” stats (he calls WAR a “joke”), and as recently as last year he admitted that the SABR community still has “a lot of work to do” in trying to quantify “defense and pitching” metrics. He also admitted their goal is to change the game.
So you see, some of us who take what you so arrogantly refer to as “advanced metrics” with a huge grain of salt, or even a scoff, have actually done our homework. We know the amount of data that’s required, and the complexity of the math involved, just to be able to estimate one weighting factor (the lower case ‘w’ you see in front of a number of stats). And that’s before you get into the probabilities and estimations of the stat in question.
They can be fun to use. But don’t pretend they’re the only numbers that matter. They aren’t.
RIP Tony Gwynn!
Sad never saw him play, but feel lucky was able to watch his memorial video. ONE three strikeout game!! WOW.
youtube.com/watch?v=fUlEuv4u65Q
Can someone tell me what the heck happened to Anderson Espinoza?? TJ surgery!?
Yes TJS
A young prospect that never panned out….happens to about 85% of them
Uhh, Espinoza is 20 years old. Maybe wait a bit before deciding he “never panned out”
Incorrect. He is currently re-habbing from TJS.
Permanent elbow issues he’s done
Padres have many young prospects, supposedly #1 in the rankings. Preller has to make decisions whom to protect on 40 man roster to avoid losing them on rule 5 picks. So, rather than send away $$$$$, they have young prospect to send elsewhere. Pads now (seemingly) have RF & LF locked with Renfroe & Reyes, but Margot has floped in CF. Myers cannot play CF,or 3B, and Hosmer at 1B. So, he’s a man without a position on the Padres..
Margot did disappoint a bit but was still good for 1.5 bWAR despite a dismal first half. Still has top level defense and considerable upside based on pedigree and age.
Don’t Forget the Padres also get Franchy Cordero back next year which could be a nice platoon with Margot. L/R matchups, Jankowski can spell Renfroe and Reyes at times. But who is the odd man out? Wil Myers.
People forget that Christian Villanueva is still on the roster as well, so what happens to him if you anoint Myers the starter.
How is Myers D in the outfield?
Myers’ defense is below-average everywhere. He was passable at first, and managed to stay healthy there, but the Padres inexplicably signed Hosmer, who cant hit or field, to the biggest contract in their history, to block first base.
The way I see it.. ownership made him go for it in 2015 before rebuilding, so they give him some leeway. 2016-2018 were clearly rebuilding years, but I think the leash will tighten in 2019. No one expects the Padres to make the playoffs in 2019, but if they can’t make .500 then next offseason might hear more chatter about Preller losing his job.
If he was such a puppet that owners made him do something what does that say about him
The owners write the checks. They have a lot more say in baseball operations than you think. GMs aren’t independent contractors. Look at Baltimore – do you think Duquette wanted to give that contract to Chris Davis? That was all Angelos. Right or wrong, owners make investments in teams and the smart ones try to stay out of baseball ops; the ones like Steinbrenner, Angelos, Loria etc tend to run their teams into the ground because they aren’t baseball people. After 2015’s disaster it seems as if Padres ownership has backed off a bit, expanding the analytics side of the front office and allowing Preller to rebuild the farm and major-league roster.
The 2015 fiasco wasn’t about winning. It was about being able to buy prospects by signing, then eating big contracts to pay for the prospects.
Wrong
That’s brain dead
Yes you are
Myers must go to AL and be a DH. Padres will eat $ but with $50m payroll, owners will go for it. Wish we kept Trea turner and passed on Myers. Cordero…don’t forget him. Reyes will go to AL and DH….next big papi. The dude can crush a baseball! Below average RF.
No AL team needs DH especially Myers. They mix and match. He’s not Nelson Cruz
Looking at the current roster pragmatically the Pads are stuck with Myers and Hosmer…..who would want them at this time? May as well keep Myers at 3rd and Hosmer at 1st. Do not re-sign Galvis…….It’s possible Myers and Hosmer will become trade-able if they have a good season in the future….
The Padres have one truly bad contract, obviously, in Hosmer. Hosmer’s first season in SD wasn’t promising – a well below-average hitter for a first baseman and absolutely terrible defensively, and no baserunning value. Supposedly he’s a good “clubhouse guy,” whatever that means, but not sure that’s worth 160 million dollars. He also blocks Reyes from possibly moving to first – Reyes had a nice rookie season with the bat, but a ton of his value was negated by his atrocious defense. He can’t play out there.
Mejia looked fantastic in AAA after the trade and I wouldn’t read anything into his first 50 ML ABs. Go look up Mike Trout’s first season….not comparing him, but there’s an adjustment period. Plus, he’s still learning how to catch – he has a great arm but the rest of his defensive game is pretty rough. Scouts seem to think he can stick back there although he’ll never be a great catcher. Urias looked good in the minors but got hurt almost immediately upon reaching the majors; not much to evaluate with him. His profile isn’t as a superstar, but he could be a Jody Reed type of second baseman, good defense and a little bit of offense. Galvis is a terrible hitter but at least played every game and he’s still a good shortstop. He’d be okay as a utility guy. Villanueva hit well but can’t play third at all.
Myers is probably going to be traded for pennies on the dollar. He can’t stay healthy playing anywhere in the field except first base. He’s just 27 and his power/speed combo might appeal to someone looking for a DH on the cheap. Margot had a horrible first half of the season at the plate but he was playing hurt, although his defense still graded out as fantastic. Renfroe is going to be fine – a low-average power guy; he has a great throwing arm but isn’t a great defender but could maybe become good. Austin Hedges looks like Salvador Perez, pt.2 – a catcher with very good defense and a little power but no on-base ability at all. That’s an asset at catcher.
I don’t think San Diego is in terrible shape offensively, and Preller has shown a very good ability to assemble a great bullpen out of other teams’ castoffs. The strating pitching is bad and the first wave of starting prospects isn’t close, but I could see them improving by 10 wins next year and then competing for a WC by 2020, which has kind of been the unspoken timeline for a while now.
Margot has been a huge disppointment in many facets of the game. He is not a “heady” player, many baserunning blunders. He tailed off greatly in 2018 after a somewhat promising break-in in 2017. He may be gone. (if there are any takers)
The Myers deal is still salvageable. He is owed 73 million dollars if you exclude his option year and figure the 1 million dollar buy out is implemented so 74 million dollars is what he is owed.
For the next 3 years while Kansas City will arguably be the worst team in baseball, They have Danny Duffy under contract for his age 29, 30 and 31 seasons he is owed 15 million dollars per equaling 45 million for the duration. Ian Kennedy is due 33 million for the next two seasons, why not bring him back?
You trade Myers and can insert these guys in your rotation, and then you use the prospect depth to acquire a young controllable ace and piece it all together.
Then by just removing Myers from the equation and letting him play first base in Kansas City for the next 4 years, you’ve cleared the deck.
Pitching rotation would be something like:
1. Fulmer/Syndergaard/Bundy
2. Duffy
3. Lucchesi
4. Lauer/ Nix/ Lamet
5. Ian Kennedy/ Logan Allen
Position players are: C Hedges/Mejia. 1B Hosmer. 2B Urias. SS: Galvis/Iglesisas/ Mercer or Hechavarria until Tatis Jr. / 3B Villanueva – possible free agent addition? Maybe a left handed bat to spell him and Urias? If Solarte becomes a free agent I could see a reunion there just for a year or two, platoon role. LF- Renfroe/Cordero/Jankowski. CF- Margot/Cordero/Jankowski. RF- Reyes/Cordero/ Jankowski.
Is it bad that I thought Myers could be a trade partner with KC also? Another team could be the Minnesota Twins.
Either that or I’m sure Bud Black would take him back after the season is over. Myers enjoyed a hot start to his Padre career when Buddy was still here, maybe there is some good feelings there still. That coupled with Colorado still not having an answer at 1B.
Ian Desmond + could be sent to the Padres to compensate for Myers contract. Desmond then can be a true utility guy you can bounce around and get more out of, expensive? Yes. But worth turning Myers into something.
Maybe Desmond can be moved to 3B. Not sure. Although Desmond could see action at 2B with DJ being a free agent. I know they have a young guy but who knows what the Rockies plans are.
Desmond has become a poor mans Hanley Ramirez.
Interesting to read assessment on Hosmer. Folks finally realize he is not good defensively. He fooled many people in KC and in baseball for years. I think he’ll get better as a hitter next year.
Hosmer signing was absolutely inexplicable at time. No other team (besides the Royals) was interested in him and Padres overpaid willingly by about $50 million. Even more strange because Padres did not need him with Myers at first base. Trade immediately made Myers of little value to Padres. I thought at time there must have been a plan to immediately trade Myers. Instead, Padres have watched his value diminish, along with Hosmer’s but once they signed Hosmer, they were stuck with him.
On the plus side, everyone says farm system is great. Risk is that GM might mess that up as well.
Lets start with this, UZR and DRS do not include the most important part of a 1B job. Catching balls thrown to him.
Hosmer was the best in the league doing what a 1B does most of the time. He catches every ball thrown in his direction. 1B catch about 7+ times as many throws to them from other infielders as they make plays in the field. Hosmer led the league in scoops at 31 for the Padres. Meaning he caught 31 balls in the dirt that would have been called errors otherwise. Just like he did for the Royals for years. He caught an additional 18 errant balls in the air and turned them into outs. Over the past 4 seasons, Hosmer is the best in baseball at doing that incredibly important part of the job at 1B. He was also 2nd in the NL in DP started. So the 3-4 outs he failed to make because of his range at 1B, are more than made up by doing the majority of the job at 1B exceptionally well.
Sorry Pads Fans. Hosmer stinks. He was overrated last year and he stunk this year and may just stink ever year. Oh but he catches the balls thrown to him! Haha ok. Great signing if you say so. You can have him. No one else wants him. In fact no one else wanted him last year but Preller who got schooled on that signing
Umm, it was way more than 3-4 outs he failed to make; he cost the Padres at least two wins with his defense alone. His ability to scoop balls is offset by all the hits that get past him, by a ton.
@Pads Fans … Thank you for pointing out what should be obvious anybody who actually watches baseball games. The old axiom is “a good first baseman makes the whole infield better.” Why? Because he turns bad throws into outs!
Some people get so wrapped up in stats, they can’t or won’t believe what they see with their eyes!
Preller was as clear as mud there. The Padres have lots of questions marks and apparently, Preller has no plan except to throw $&it at the wall and hope something sticks.
Here is my State of the Padres
#1 – The starting pitching is really, really bad. The starters on the Padres after the departure of Ross and Lyles had an NL high ERA at 5.62. The Padres best starting pitcher, Joey Lucchesi, is a #3 or a #4 on nearly every team and is #5 on any contending team. Without at least 1 and preferably two top of the rotation, proven, MLB starting pitchers the Padres have no shot at contending. That means spending money or prospect/player capital. Probably both. We saw the prices in prospects the Rays got for Archer and what was rumored to have been the Mets asking price for deGrom. It won’t be cheap. With his progression both at the plate and in the field, Renfroe will be a very sought after young player from the Padres in any trade for pitching. Are they willing to pay the price?
#2 – Myers is not a third baseman and the Padres need to stop jacking him around by moving him to a new position every season. There are not many 30HR/20SB players in baseball and Myers is one of them. Either put him in LF where he is best suited and leave him there or trade him somewhere else and go with Renfroe. Who would net the Padres more in trade?
#3 – The Padres need a 3B. A real, honest to goodness 3B. I don’t think Villanueva is the guy. He played historically bad defense at 3B for the first couple of months of the season and once pitchers made adjustments to him at the plate, he was unable to make his own. Tremendous power. Not much else. Eduardo Escobar is a FA and would be a good fit. Donaldson is also available, but his performance took a nosedive this season at age 33.
#4 – Who plays SS? Complicated question. Tatis ended the season in AA on a 2+ month stint on the DL and is going to need more than Winter Ball to get him ready to make his first MLB appearance. The best estimate of his arrival time in SD is June and only if he tears it up in AA or AAA to start 2019. The Padres seem committed to Urias at 2B in 2019. So do the Padres bring back Galvis? He is going to want multiple years. He closed the season on a great run so he will get multiple years in FA and likely a small raise from the $6.825 million he earned this season. If not Galvis, what stop-gap do they sign or play? Not many on the FA market that are going to be willing to sign for a single season or sign knowing they will sit once Tatis is ready. Guerra definitely has the glove, but the bat is badly lacking. Villanueva? Please say no. The Padres settled on a stop gap at SS every season that Preller has been at the helm and the results have not been pretty. Other than Galvis, the Padres shortstops from 2015-2018 have hit a MLB worst cumulative .223/.280/.316/.596 and even with Galvis, they have played the worst defense in MLB. Galvis’ .248/.299/.380/.680 is a huge step up on offense and he is one of the best in MLB on defense. To me, Galvis makes the most sense.
#5 – What do they do with that OF?
#7 – If Green is back, the Padres will lose more games than the win in 2019. It’s that simple. His every day, in-game decisions have put the Padres 7 wins below what the cumulative WAR of the players indicates they should have won in 2018.
#7 – If the Padres don’t play .500 ball in 2019, Fowler has made it clear in his most recent interview that neither Preller nor Green’s jobs are safe.
#1 was the most important. None of the starters the Padres rolled out to the mound in the 2nd half have the stuff to improve greatly on 2018 and collectively they were the worst in the league over that period. If Preller does not address that shortage, 2019 will be another ugly season for Padres fans.
As far as hitting goes the outlook is murky but better. The Padres have 3 returning position players that were league average or above in BA and OPS in 2018. One that wasn’t, Eric Hosmer, is a pretty good bet to rebound. If every player is above average, teams win more then they lose. Reyes, Renfroe, and Hedges showed tremendous improvement in the 2nd half. Not a single Padres player topped 10% walks. That is a problem.
Is their a cliff notes version of that novel. Lol.
Really good synopsis of the ball club. I watched all 162 games this year and have very similar feelings as to you when it comes to assessing what I saw. Nice work.
Good review and assessment. Especially with regard to SP, and what Preller seems to be doing to that wall.
I would add that Margot may be very tradeable. At least, he should be. He regressed this year in all facets of the game. And for the second consecutive year, he had the second most PA’s on the team. He should have been benched, or even sent down for a couple of weeks in May. He didn’t hit above .200 jntil the end of May. But he was in there every day?
Also – Villanueva’s defense wasn’t nearly as bad as you make it sound. And — he’s a rookie!!
Im especially concerned with his inability to stal bags. WTH?!…so is he a baserunner or just a Mark Loretta-type guy who hits in the two hole and moves your base stealer over?…because all this talk about him practicing the art of basestealing with horse blinders on, is hilarious and sorta embarrassing. If the guy is what he is, then let him be that and take whatever you can get from his defense.
Lol two #7’s
I hate to say it because Andy Green is praised and thought highly of by other seamheads of note in and out of uniform, around the game…starting with LaRussa. But ever since Boch left, the Padres have struggled. Period. Think about that. Bruce Bochy is “a managers manager”…respected and proven.
And he will remain in SF in whatever capacity…but there are other guys around the game without jobs, or recently fired, whose credentials blow Green’s out of the water. Girardi, Farrell, Showalter, Baker, Gibbons, etc
I’m just sick of this mediocre mentality that Padre brass seem to have about managers. Spend some money and/or acquire some players that know balls from strikes and can get on base…go find you a manager that has been in the trenches..and call it a freaking day, for crying out loud! Otherwise, time will continue to be wasted.
Good points. Myers needs to go waivers or eating $. You can’t blame Andy Green when little talent.
If Fowler thinks team can go from 96 losses to 82 he’s dumber than I thought. Preller can’t make a good trade to save his life even when cheating. What good GM been suspended twice by MLB? He plays this bookworm act but he’s joke
There’s a difference between competing and “looking to start to compete” (which sounds rather idiotic). Don’t stick your head out there in the winds of change unless you really want to change, in other words. 2019, the Padres better be contending…and they better make the necessary trades to contend or 2019 will see pink slips left on the doors of field and general management, and not the players so much.
THEY NEED CONSISTENT STARTING PITCHING THAT CAN GO LONGER THAN 5 INNINGS. PERIOD…AND THEY NEED A LINEUP THAT KNOWS HOW TO GET ON BASE.
Otherwise, there is no need to talk about contending. I understand we’re moving into an era where bullpens are doing the heavy lifting. But a money-challenged team like the Padres (compared to LA and SF) cannot lean on bullpens to relieve starters after 5 or even 6 innings, every game. I’d also like to see Wil Myers traded for all kinds of reasons.