No MLB team would evaluate a player based only upon his accumulation of traditional, outcome-oriented statistics. But one of the game’s primary mechanisms for determining compensation — the arbitration process — remains rooted in the kinds of numbers that once dominated the backs of baseball cards.
On occasion, that disconnect can boost a player’s arb earning power beyond the valuation of his actual value. Not long ago, for instance, Chris Carter was non-tendered after leading the National League in home runs. More frequently, the good or bad fortune that can skew the arb results simply means more or less money in the pocket of a given player who is good enough that his team will pay up regardless.
MLBTR continues to model arbitration salaries every fall. While there’s always some tweaking, the basic principles remain as they were when the arb projections began back in 2011. For hitters, the key factors — as MLBTR arb guru Matt Swartz ascertained many moons ago — are playing time and power. The accumulation of plate appearances, home runs, and runs batted in are the biggest factors in driving earning power through arbitration, even if those are far from the only things that go into making for a productive baseball player.
While prior years’ performances certainly factor in, we’re focused here on which players have done the most in 2018 to boost their next salaries. It took a few assumptions regarding Super Two qualification to make the list, but they seem rather likely to be correct when that’s finalized.
On to the list:
- Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: Remember when Lindor was supposed to be an outstanding defender and baserunner with a high-contact profile at the plate? Yeah, he has done all of that and topped thirty home runs for the second-straight season, elevating his game along with his arb earning power in an exceptional campaign. Lindor also has 120 runs and 23 steals.
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Dingers and defense are the calling card for Story, who’s also getting on base at a .340+ clip after a dip last year. Also helping his cause? Story has driven in over a hundred runs and swiped 26 bags, so there are plenty of counting stats for his agents to make into exhibits if it makes it to a hearing.
- Trea Turner, SS, Nationals: It’s a shortstop rout at the top. Though Turner has modest power, he’s approaching twenty dingers and forty steals. He also continues to play on a more-or-less everyday basis while hitting at the top of the lineup. Topping 700 plate appearances will be another notable milestone to cite.
- Javier Baez, INF, Cubs: Who could forget Javy? This author, evidently. Somehow, I neglected to include the emergent Cubs star on the initial version of this list despite his season to remember, which includes a .294/.328/.566 slash, 32 home runs, and a NL-leading 105 runs batted in through 590 plate appearances. That output will drive a rewarding first trip through the arbitration process over the offseason to come.
- Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins: While he doesn’t deliver eye-popping counting stats and isn’t playing a premium defensive position, Rosario has done plenty in 2018 to boost his arbitration case. Through 589 plate appearances entering play today, he had racked up a .288/.323/.475 slash with a healthy combination of 23 homers, 86 runs, and 76 runs batted in.
- Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Similarly, Schwarber doesn’t have a gaudy dinger tally for a corner outfielder and has even less to point to in the other counting areas. But he has put the ball over the fence 25 times in just 478 plate appearances.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Mets: It’s hard to fault Conforto too much for what has been a relatively disappointing season in light of his outstanding 2017 effort. Given his serious shoulder procedure, it’s probably a success in the aggregate. And from an arb perspective, he has done fine for himself. With 25 long balls and 69 RBI through a hefty 578 plate appearances, all before a big game tonight, Conforto will earn well.
- Max Kepler, OF, Twins (likely Super Two): Though he hasn’t broken out, Kepler keeps putting up solid numbers that’ll play fairly well in arbitration. Despite a poor .228 batting average, he could end the year with twenty bombs and six hundred total plate appearances.
- Chris Taylor, INF/OF, Dodgers: No, this hasn’t been quite the follow-up that might have been hoped for after an out-of-nowhere 2017 season. But Taylor is still hitting at an above-average rate and might reach 600 PAs. He also has 16 homers and nine steals on the year and could get a boost for playing up the middle defensively.
- Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: He has now reached twenty dingers and will likely top at least 75 RBI, so he has some of the counting stats you like to see. He’ll also accumulate over 500 plate appearances. Though Mazara hasn’t yet taken the next step, his volume of work will pay out rather well in the arbitration process.
- Honorable mention: Tommy Pham of the Rays has been solidly above-average, but his stats don’t jump off the page for a corner outfielder. His excellent 2017 season will boost his earnings, but that’s not quite what this post is about. In 2018, thus far, he’s carrying a .425 slug with 17 homers, a dozen steals, and 53 RBI. Meanwhile, Matt Davidson of the White Sox is a likely Super Two player who isn’t going to get to 500 plate appearances, so he falls short of making the list. But he still warrants mention since he’s a sneaky pick here as a player who many likely did not know was already at arb eligibility. With twenty homers this year, he’s one away from 50 total on his resume, so he should command a relatively healthy salary despite his low plate-appearance tally and less-than-stellar overall performance to this point in his career.
Even though he missed the whole year Seager should get a nice payday
Probably true. I was surprised to see Corey Seager unranked on ESPN’s top 300 for 2019. Out of sight, out of mind perhaps.
Well, this post was about which players had big 2018 seasons to support their arb cases. Seager will do well regardless, but not nearly to the extent he would have and not because of his ’18 campaign.
Lindor is about to get paid. Indians should try to give him 4/70 or something.
He rejected $100 million. But he should take $70M now seeing as it would be a band-aid deal that would buy out his remaining Arb yrs. Win-win for all parties involved, and who knows? Buy time for another extension..
No chance you buy out FA years with 70, yet alone 100
Buying out arb years at a fair rate would help build good will when it’s time to talk extension.
Please cite the example of good will ever being an actual factor in whether or not players sign extensions. Of course afterwards when they get exactly what they want after the agent has sucked every last penny out of the team the player says this is exactly where I wanted to be this whole time… which may or may not be true. Most likely that’s just where his agent said he get the most money. For every player that gives a hometown discount that’s probably market value anyway there’s 15 who take the most money. Which is fine but this narrative that teams who give players more in arb will buy goodwill with players 4 or 5 years later and lock them up in team friendly extension is absurd.
That was only reported and not official because a 6yr spilled the beans.
He’s going to get traded because Cleveland can’t afford that kind of cabbage. They have traded away a ton of prospects so time to restock. A’s Phillies & Braves all need a player like him for the next push up.
He’ll be traded eventually, but Cleveland will want to maximize his use. They aren’t going to deal him until their playoff window closes – unless they get overwhelmed. It would take a historic haul to get him before the winter of 2020.
4/70 will not come close
Agreed.
It is seriously not in Lindor’s best interest to accept anything other than at least a ten year contract. If he waits until free agency he is in line for a massive contract. Accepting a fourth year now from Cleveland just moves that big contract one year further away and increases his odds of an injury.
I’m guessing he will ask for at least 10m this winter. Will he get it? Who knows – but it is not out of the ballpark given previous arbitration numbers.
Disagree, unless there are opt-outs. A 10 year contract with no opt-outs would probably end up being the only legitimate contract he ever signs. The kid is only 24 years old. Anything that gets him into free agency before he’s 30, including just playing through his arb years, would work in his favor.
Let me be clearer: If I am Lindor’s agent and the Indians call to talk about an extension, I tell them I want a career contract – ten years BEYOND arbitration. (I probably ask for opt-outs, too.) The first three years could mimic arbitration (about 10/17/24) and the ten beyond that would be another 300m.
I think that would be enough to keep Frankie in Cleveland – and there is no way the Tribe accepts that deal. Barring some Divine intervention, Frankie is in Cleveland for two years, then they trade him (and the Indians’ playoff window shuts.)
No way Cleveland or any other team go 10 years
Stanton got 10 years. Machado and Harper will likely get ten years. Why not Lindor? He is a top fielding SS and a perennial threat to win the silver slugger. As long as he doesn’t get hurt in the next three years, he gets ten.
Lindor’s salary will probably be in the 5-6mil range next year (similar to Manny Machado’s first arbitration year). From there, if he continues to perform the way he has this year and last, he’d probably be up towards 11-12 the following year, and approach record breaking numbers from there.
The fact it’s possible Lindor could make 5-6 mill shows what a joke arbitration is. Dude is a 30 million dollar player and even before this year was a 20 million dollar player.
That’s light for Lindor. Bryant agreed to a $10M arb deal last year, and Lindor has more hits, runs, RBI’s, and home runs. He does have a lower OPS but he should still easily make 8 or 9M
$10.85M but point remains. (Even more-so now)
Shall we say $11M for Lindor 😉
I don’t know if it matters but Bryant was ROY and won the MVP before he hit arbitration so that may have helped him. Either way they have to give Lindor more, he has better number this year than Bryant did in 2017 and it’s not even really close. Even if you take the last two (or 16-17 for Bryant) Lindor has superior numbers in just about every stat and he plays one of, if not the, most important defensive positions. I know defense doesn’t matter all that much but it certainly can’t hurt.
I agree with mattimeo and xabial. Lindor should surpass Bryants record $10m plus arbitration award.
I think $5-6mm is too low for Lindor. Manny signed that 3 years ago and while very good, wasn’t as good as Lindor has been. I would think $8-9mm is the low end of Lindor’s first arb year and I would ask for at least $10mm if I was him.
The fact people who decide the incomes of professional baseball players in the year 2018 still look at RBI as a meaningful factor is baffling/scary/idiotic.
Can the league and/or Union not replace the arbitrators with competent baseball minds?
Send in an application
Yeah I really wonder what it would take to shake up the arbitration criteria. The process is all about precedent in every way
Its still a factor based on production…example: bryce Harper, your partner,adem dunn, your mom, Ryan Howard.
Screw most stats because they still produced when needed.
Aren’t the arbitrators just lawyers that each side agrees on from a list? I didn’t think they were “baseball-specific” lawyers, just generic contract law lawyers. That might be why they still use easily digestible stats.
Good point. The arbitrators definitely know contract law and how to read precedent. The fact they are reading precedents based on outdated metrics is not their issue.
What’s actually baffling/scary/idiotic is that some random fans think they know more about the arbitration process than lawyers who have been doing it for years just because they have a subscription to Fangraphs and bought Moneyball off the discount shelf.
What’s actually funny is a NL executive said prior to going in for a arb case against a player, that the team won said the everyone would be better off teams & players if they had the smart fans in baseball decide these cases. The reason is these lawyers have no idea. Players, agents and teams all feel like they just flip coins to decide most cases. The stats used in arb are outdated and don’t reflect what teams value in today’s baseball.
Lawyers will no doubt understand contract law better than I do. I have taken only introductory courses on the subject that relate to my profession.
It is the fact that they are deciding the incomes of players based on outdated, sometimes meaningless metrics that is idiotic. A player’s first arbitration salary sets the stage for his next three years.
Those salaries should not be impacted by whether or not his teammates got on base but on the actual player’s production.
Trea Turner might not make the Super Two cutoff. He will finish this season at 2.135.
Isn’t nick castellanos arbitration eligible at the end of the season?
Yes, but not for the first time. He’ll be in his final arbitration year.
The Arb system is very, very broken.
Max Kepler……now that Dozier is gone, hes now the most overrated Twins player.
I think the biggest victim of this process, in 2018, was Aaron Hicks. The Yankees benched Ellsbury to make him their starting center fielder in the off season (back when Ellsbury was perfectly healthy). And, at the same time, he only got $2.8m in his second year of arb.
He got shortchanged in two ways:
1. his strengths are defense and on base skills, both thoroughly ignored in arbitration
2. he lost a significant chunk of what his performance would’ve warranted because he spent time on the DL with a non-chronic muscle injury (which, for a 27 year old, doesn’t predict future injuries, and would’ve been a non-factor if he was a free agent).
And I bet he’s still not gonna crack $10M in 2019, despite another great year, this time in a full 600 PA season.
Meanwhile, if he was a free agent this winter, he’d be looking at $150M, easy.
Lmao Hicks would not be getting a contract worth more than 100 million.
.242 BA, hasn’t sniffed 500 at bats. .360 OBP is really good but not elite. Won’t win a gold glove.
He’s a slightly better hitting, worse fielding version of JBJ….maybe combined they make 80M… he’s not worth 150M and with how last off season went, who knows. He could get 30.
He’s a lot better than Bradley. I’d argue that a good comp is Josh Reddick when he got his contract. And I don’t think you can possibly argue that Hicks is three times the player Reddick is.
If hicks played 20 more years he probably wouldn’t even make 150 mil. If hicks was a free agent this year and got 4 yrs 13 mil per id be pretty surprised.
Javy Baez? No clue why you wouldnt list him before Schwarber or all but 2 or 3 of these guys.
Yeah I botched that for sure.
The concept of a hometown discount is overblown. Most players have homes elsewhere and spend the season traveling. At the end of a player’s career location does have some importance.
I was really mad when carter was non-tendered or Hughes last year. Sometimes I struggle to understand why some team maneuver the way they do.
Well, that’s what a lot of us are talking about – teams have much different opinions on what is valuable than HRs, RBI or BA. Carter’s 41 HR year was worth about 1 win because of such negative defense and baserunning. Even his counting stats besides the HRs weren’t special – 84 runs scored and 94 RBI aren’t great numbers for a guy with 41 Hrs. And of course, the next season, with the Yankees, Carter proved that Milwaukee made the right choice, because Carter was terrible with the Yanks and wasn’t even in the majors this year.