7:43pm: In an interview with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Archer called the trade chatter surrounding him “unsettling.” Topkin again notes that the industry sense is that Tampa Bay is more willing than ever to trade Archer, and he adds that a young catcher and a power-hitting outfield prospect would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point.
July 29, 8:58am: The Padres are still regarded as the favorites to land Archer if the Rays deal him, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The Braves are also interested, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who adds that the Rays had a pair of scouts watching Yankees pitching prospect Justus Sheffield at Triple-A on Saturday. However, it’s “a long shot” that the Yankees will acquire Archer, Sherman writes.
July 28, 12:50pm: Add the Yankees and Dodgers to the list of teams who’re pursuing Archer, according to a recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
10:43am: Chris Archer has been the subject of trade speculation all season, and now talks surrounding Tampa Bay’s prized right-hander are “intensifying”, per a report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.
A trade isn’t quite imminent, it seems, as Crasnick notes that it’s difficult to judge whether or not a team will actually pay the Rays’ asking price. After all, Archer can be controlled through 2021 for an average of less than $8MM per season, and is unsurprisingly being donned with a “No. 1 starter type of price tag”. It’s certainly plausible that Archer could be a part of the next contending Rays ballclub considering the wealth of talent in Tampa Bay’s farm system (recently ranked the fourth-best in baseball by MLB.com), which boasts six players among MLB Pipeline’s top 70 prospects.
Then again, the Rays have seen a host of promising prospects go down with Tommy John surgery this season. Right-handers Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon and lefty Anthony Banda were all considered to be about major-league ready this season before each sprained his UCL and had to go under the knife. While one would expect all three to be ready to pitch again by the middle of next season based on the normal Tommy John recovery timeline, we know by now that the surgery isn’t a sure thing, and can lead to deeply-diminished production (Brady Aiken comes to mind as an example). It wouldn’t be out of the question, then, for the Rays to attempt to acquire an upside young arm along with some other valuable pieces in a package for their ace.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted soon after Crasnick’s report that the Padres (who have already been connected to Archer this season) have made progress in talks with the Rays, in part because Tampa Bay has shown “a greater willingness” to deal him. But Passan adds a dissent in agreeing that the price remains high, which has the Padres “balking for now.” We already know that the Padres are unwilling to exchange either of their top two prospects (shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and southpaw Mackenzie Gore), though they’ve shown a willingness to deal second baseman Luis Urias, right-hander Cal Quantrill and even recently-acquired catching prospect Francisco Mejia.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that the Cardinals “remain interested” in Archer, noting that the club attempted to deal for the 29-year-old just this past winter. Goold’s sources tell him that the Cards believe they can line up a “competitive offer”. It’s no surprise that St. Louis would be checking in on all available options to patch their injury-ravaged rotation; the club’s seen right-handers Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez succumb to oblique injuries and can’t know what type of late-2018 contributions to expect from either at this point. Meanwhile, top prospect Alex Reyes, who was expected to play a big role in the club’s plans this year, suffered a season-ending lat injury at the tail end of May. Adam Wainwright continues to be injury-prone and can’t be counted on for any type of meaningful production. The club is currently placing its playoff hopes on the resurgent Miles Mikolas and a cast of rookies including Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver and John Gant.
To be fair, it’s not clear whether Archer is truly worth the price of an “ace”. The right-hander has posted ERAs north of four in each of the past two seasons and currently sports a six-year high figure of 4.31. While it’s true that his FIP (3.62) suggests quite a bit of bad luck has been involved, the same can also be said of each of his previous three seasons- Archer has a reputation as a pitcher whose results consistently fail to keep up with his peripherals. Still, it’s easy to imagine him catching fire and putting together an impressive second-half run, a possibility which plenty of contenders would like to take a chance on.
c 314
Would Weaver and Carson Kelley be enough to get Archer?
murphy
Not enough.
Carson isn’t much anymore imo.
justacubsfan
Idk why cardinals would really trade for him. They have so many high upside arms already. Weaver, Flaherty, (more in farm) I guess they could trade Reyes plus for him, but I doubt Reyes really interests the rays. Boy would Reyes have been good though they guy had 3-4 plus pitches. Wish the cubs could develop a couple arms. I guess Cease is finally getting up there.
cards81
Lol you act like Reyes is done…he just came back from TJ and he was throwing good before the lat injury….he is still a top 100 prospect…he will be fine and I doubt the Cardinals would give him up for Archer
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
I’m not sure he’s done, but realistically if you look at it from the Rays perspective it’d be hard to determine value. He’s already burned through two years of team control. He’ll probably need another year or two to build up and by the time he’ll actually be ready for a full time workload he’ll probably be that much closer to FA. Not to mention say he spends half of the season with the Rays next year he’ll be close to a super 2 guy. Reyes is no doubt a guy who’s stuff looks amazing, but value wise it’s hard to see placing much value on him, as he hasn’t pitched in two years. Maybe as a third piece sweetener with potential upside, but the centerpiece or major secondary piece it’s just not there until he can throw.
cards81
I see what your saying but if that is the case then the Cardinals will just hold on to him before throwing him in anything…he is better than that
JKB 2
I think they would be interested in Reyes but not as a centerpiece.
Rob B
“He’ll probably need another year or two to build up…” @Blue_Paint _whatever
Why? Why would he need a whole year or 2, to recover from the lat injury? Do you just not realize that he already recovered from TJ surgery and injured the lat upon return? This is assinine.
chesteraarthur
The only thing that is asinine is you not realizing it takes pitchers time to build up to throwing a full season. The most he’s ever thrown in a season is about 110 innings, you don’t just go from that to pitching a full season, even without injuries.
Rob B
C’mon man! I don’t expect him to have 200 IP next season but I do believe he will be ready for ST. The Cardinals have previously said they did not expect to put an innings cap on him in the past and I don’t see any reason why this non throwing arm related injury changes that. Sure it is a set back but not to the magnitude this foolishness suggests. Anyone would be glad to have him the next 2 seasons which is why just about every team we have trade talks with wants to talk about Reyes, so don’t act like his value is diminished.
ayrbhoy
You never know how trades and prospects pan out- I realize the Cards needed OF depth and had quality pitchers with which to acquire OFers but hold on to Marco Gonzales and you don’t need to have a conversation this Archer! Of course, my Mariners could’ve done the same with Chris Taylor! I haven’t tracked Tyler Oniel’s growth since we traded for Gonzo, hopefully he’s doing well for St. Louis- I saw he had quite an impact earlier in the year. Hope he’s doing well for you Cards fans
STLCards33
If that’s not enough then the cardinals shouldn’t be interested
murphy
Cardinals should focus on other things first before making a splash anyways.
Archer won’t help them this season as it is.
cards81
Well geez good thing Archer is signed through 2021
justinept
If the Cards think they’ll contend before 2021 with all their holes, a farm system short on bats, and an aging – mostly unproductive lineup- then the disappointment you’re setting yourself up for is on you.
For the realists out there, this division belongs to the Cubs and Brewers for the next several years. The Cards should’ve focused on 2022 at the earliest.
iverbure
No none playoff team should be in on Archer. Why on earth would any team that isn’t playoff bound take the risk that the pitcher will get hurt the last 3 months in a non contending year?
Every pitcher should be viewed as a injury risk.
Archer makes the most sense for teams like the Phillies, Braves, Yankees who are young and should be contending for at least the next two years probably more.
Why the Padres would be interested they must be trying to tank. You tank by spending a bunch of money on terrible players like Hosmer in years where you aren’t competitive so when you’re good and maybe have a chance that Hosmer deals looks incredibly Chris Davis bad and spend 15% of your payroll on terrible contract.
cards81
Lol justinept…a farm system short on bats…I know Tyler O’Neill is short but he has a bat…and it is a farm system that is highly regarded with plenty of arms…you know pitching the one thing everyone needs including the cubs and Brewers…they are also loaded with outfield depth…if you think the cardinals are going to lay down till 2022 you obviously don’t understand the cardinals organization…I guess you never heard of trading and free agency…lol for a realist you haven’t a clue
iverbure
Pretty sure the only reason people think he’s overrated is because of his w-L record in which case your opinion is irrelevant.
dmarcus15
in 2 yrs the Cards will have a starting rotation that will be the best in baseball. Cut the dead weight. Waino and Wacca. then spend some money they will be fine.
Colorado Red
Not in on him as he is a #3 at best.
But with team control, it is more long term then short term.
luclusciano
Agreed with a career 1.23 whip and less than 3.5 FIP he may not be an ace, which they are selling as, but definitely an ok #2 and above average #3.
I am a fan of his, but don’t think he deserves ace compensation.
justinept
1- If you think one decent hitting prospect means the system isn’t short on bats, then you haven’t been paying attention to the successful rebuilds around baseball the last 6-years.
2- If you think a team can rebuild through FA, then you haven’t been paying attention.
3- Outfield depth? If by depth you mean they have some bodies in the outfield, then ok…
But quality wise they have Ozuna, who is inconsistent. Other than that, they don’t have an OFer that would start on any legit playoff contending team other than Cleveland. Both Bader and Pham are barely league average. Fowler has been historically bad.
4- The Cardinals have been a .500 team since the All Star Break in 2015. That’s 3 full seasons of mediocrity. The players producing those mediocre seasons are getting even worse. The farm isn’t in good enough shape to replace them – well, with the exception of that one bat you felt the need to call out.
So whatever. Live in your fantasy. I’m sure it’s a 4th place paradise.
chesteraarthur
Yeah, free agency has worked so well for them lately. Great way to build a team…
jamesonbishop
I think you are right and wrong. I cannot see the Cardinals making the playoffs next year, but they should be back in 2020.
padreforlife
Because they are led by Preller
Cardinals17
When John Mozeliak is out of the Cardinals organization for good is when the Cardinals will begin the Cardinals to climb back to the top of the Central Division. However, it will take 5-8 years to rebuild what Mozeliak has torn down. The organization doesn’t come close to resembling the tradition, character of team’s constructed by Herzog or Walt Jockerty. Heaven forbid that the Cardinal’s owners allow Mozeliak be involved in rebuilding the Cardinals when it is his multi year do nothing attitude since LaRussa left.
bighiggy
Funny, memphis is top 3 in offense in the minors, and it’s not just O’Neill knocking himself in lol. 1 good bat, you know nothing of our number 10, last I saw rated minors.
Priggs89
Memphis is top 3 in offense based on what, exactly? Unless you’re looking at something different than me, they’re 8th in runs scored and 9th in OPS (out of 16 teams in the extremely hitter-friendly PCL).
3Rivers
Wishful thinking …… Lul
bighiggy
A guy batting 295, on base of 350 and a minor league gold glove isnt much? Dang you have some high standards for a catcher in the minors. Also throwing out 36 percent of base stealers.
bighiggy
I correct myself, 378 on base and 29 walks to only 30 strikeouts in 210 at bats. Very subpar lol
CubsRule08
Nope. You’re probably looking at at least 2 of Alex Reyes, Dakota Hudson or Tyler O’Neill just to start for Archer. Probably need to add a couple more on top of that. However, I still don’t see the Rays trading Archer until the offseason.
pinstripes17
Way too much, Archer’s last good season was what, 2015?
jdgoat
Archers last good season was last year
rocky7
Beg to differ….this guy has been pretty average for the last 3 years….nothing outstanding at all.
Good pitchers find a way to win even on bad teams…..Chris Sale is a good example on a bad White Sox team….still found a way to effectively compete and win.
I guess you’ll hit me now about how he’s really outstanding in performance based on the “metrics”. Sorry but I’m old style….a truly outstanding pitcher scares the other team and I don’t think Archer scares anybody.
iverbure
Why do people vastly underrated healthy 200 inning with great contracts here? Just having a guy who logs 200 innings is worth like 20 mil in salary, and his contract is very friendly.
Priggs89
If that’s true, then I can’t wait to see what Hahn gets for James Shields.
JKB 2
Archer did not have a good year last year and in fact he has not had a good year in 3 years now
JKB 2
Oh Iverbure 200 innings by itself does not earn you $20 plus million. That is insane. You need to actually log 200 effective innings. Big difference.
JKB 2
Rocky7 I agree. Archer scares no one but iverbure and JDGoat
Ungerdog
you don’t get to 200 innings unless they are effective…you don’t watch a lot of baseball, do you jkb? otherwise, you would’ve known that.
darkstar61
Couple years back Shark threw 200 IP with a 5.0 ERA
Were those “effective” innings of 5.0ERA ball?
iverbure
Archer had a 4.6 war last season? Have you people saying Archer is overrated even looked at his numbers?
darkstar61
WAR is based off FIP, which is based off BABip and the assumption that it should be normal for all pitchers.
You can have guys that do things to under perform BABip though, like say throw extreme amounts of grounders.
Then you can have Archer types, who consistently over their entire career fail to live up to FIP numbers. His FIP and WAR show numbers he is flat out not capable of producing
Archer, especially the last couple seasons, has shown diminished skills that have left him unbelievably hittable. So much so that in the last 8 months, he has only had one month of batters line against that is truly better than the average AL starting pitcher – and some have been atrocious. Sept 17 hitters averaged a Kris Bryant like line against him
Right now he even benifits from TB being a pitchers park and having a Def with one of the better ranked ranges. You put him in a place like NYC though and you have Sonny Grey all over again, or even worse
justinept
200 innings is being underrated because of the time of year. The deadline is typically about loading up for October and trying to win a world championship this year. There’s a short sightedness to that.
When you start talking about inning eaters and favorable contract terms, you’re really talking about a 162 game season. Those qualities don’t mean a lot down the stretch for a team trying to win right now.
Thats probably why the Padres are reportedly the most interested team here… They’re looking toward next year.
kenphelps44
Amen! I’ve read several times that Archer’s stuff hasn’t changed. By the graphs that is true. So what has changed? His catchers, duh! A couple years ago they had Hank “I can’t throw your grandmother out” Conger behind the plate and his pitch selection had totally changed with runners on base and ML hitters knew it so they sat on his fastball. Conger isn’t the only one, it only takes a second to check on the revolving door of catchers they have had over the past few years. I’m wondering how he’d be with Hedges behind the plate. Hedges is substantially better defensively than what the Rays have been running out there the last few years.
darkstar61
Archers stuff has changed. He’s throwing 10-20% fewer Fastballs (instead mixing in more Sliders) and where hitters used to stuggle with the FB, they are not having difficulty with it any more.
You also have a dramatic spike in hard contact, HR/FB and hitters being able to place the ball where they choose, as evidenced in the large BABip numbers that are staying consistently high month after month as he gets constantly pounded by opposing hitters.
It is possible SD sees something they think they can fix. As I said, he’s using more sliders – which is what SD has had success developing/refining recently. And SD is a pitchers park, more similar to Tropicana. They might see him as a buy low/fix/flip guy. But who knows if it will work for sure – when digging into his underlying stats, Archer looks pretty dang bad at this point
kenphelps44
Or is he throwing more sliders with no one on base so he doesn’t have to throw fastballs in breaking ball counts? My point isn’t that his pitches have changed, they are the same, it’s the percentage they are used. Also, how his catchers have ranked with framing and throwing out runners.
darkstar61
Okay, but the opposite of what you are saying is what is taking place.
He used to rely on his FB occasionally mixing in a SL/CH. That was successful for him as hitters did not hit the FB that well.
Now? Hitters have no issue at all with the FB the last few years, while they seem to be largely ignoring even trying to hit the Slider (which is possibly why he is throwing more and more, trying to compensate for his FB no longer getting guys out)
The end results? He throws an absolutely amazing Slider, an inconsistent Change and a FB that no one has any difficulty with at all – and hitters are freaking pounding that arsenal like he’s a pitching machine.
If anything, he needs to go back to “Hank “I can’t throw your grandmother out” Conger” – he looked a lot better in 2016 than he does now
Padres458
It absolutely isnt worth 20 mil…no one is trading top prospects for 200 innings.
darkstar61
Just noticed that yes, there is one undeniable dramatic difference in his pitches:
12 – 33% FA, 31% SI, 8% CH, 28% SL
13 – 42% FA, 18% SI, 7% CH, 33% SL
14 – 25% FA, 41% SI, 5% CH, 29% SL
15 – 54% FA, —— , 7% CH, 39% SL
16 – 49% FA, —— , 11% CH, 40% SL
17 – 47% FA, —— . 8% CH, 45% SL
18 – 44% FA, —— , 11% CH, 43% SL
What happened to that Sinking Fastball?
Has he lost so much movement on his fastball since 2014 that it is no longer registering as a Sinker, or alternatively, has he completely lost the ability to throw said Sinker since the 2014 season?
Either way that is most definitely the change, as around there (with some leeway for scouting reports to catch on) is when he started to have less value with his FB and increase the rate he threw both his Change and Slider in compensation.
If you look at pitch info too, that registered Sinker is where his Fastball value really came from – and that pitch is completely gone at this point in his career
Solaris601
It’s pretty clear that Archer has shortcomings that can’t be covered up by Sabre metric air freshener. He’s not been playing on an epically bad team, so the statement that wins and losses don’t matter any more really doesn’t fly. I just don’t see the BBWA inducting Archer into the HOF with a .400 winning percentage in favor of his sick BaBip, xFip, and park-adjusted ERA. The eyeball test has been telling me for a couple years now that this guy lacks consistency and is in truth a #3 or #4 on most staffs.
luclusciano
Rocky7 – you do understand that metrics are actual facts, correct? They show actual performance. When I think old school I think W-L and ERA. Both are not true measures of a good pitcher.
luclusciano
No doubt – but this is not a HOF argument. I completely agree he is not an ace – more 2 or 3. But – to say he is overrated, which is what most are arguing is not a true statement. That’s where advanced metrics tell us he is better than league average. Again, not ace worthy, but definitely worth being on someone’s staff. And someone that can perform well.
Cam
Your own example – Chris Sale – went 11-14 on a 95 loss White Sox Team in 2013. He was really good – didn’t stop him from losing a bunch.
Two years later, he lost 11 games. The year after, 10.
If you’re going to make an argument, don’t beat yourself.
RedRooster
The statement that wins and losses don’t matter always flies. But hard contact rate does matter and Archer sucks there.
UGA_Steve
Why do people still overrate them? Seriously. There are half dozen old farts without contracts that could give you 180 or so innings for less than $5m per year at his ERA over the last three years. Heck, the Braves got Sanchez for zilch and he is far better.
Back to the 200 innings thing, it is not a big deal any longer. Teams are using the 10-day DL to rest pitchers all year long with fake injuries,.They basically just burn a year of service time for two Quad-A type pitchers to cover the extra starts without burning service of their best prospects. It’s still nice to have, but teams have been effectively working around it the last two seasons. Plus, you come out cheaper in the long run..
cards81
Lol just to start…that would easily get Archer…I doubt the Cardinals give up Reyes for him
c1234
Cubsrule01 have you seen the trades lately? Including the Hamels trade? Weak!
CubsRule08
Yes I have. However, all these players that have been moved have either 1 yr left of control or is a rental due to their upcoming FA.
As much as Archer has been struggling this season, he still has 3 more full years of control after the 2018 season. It’s going to be a premium price for a player like Archer.
RedRooster
Joey Lucchesi has two more years of control than Archer. Is he worth a premium price too?
CubsRule08
Look at what the Padres got for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber (both 3+ yrs of control): Francisco Mejia, who’s a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball. I was surprised that it was only Mejia and nobody else in the deal, but Archer is going to get the same type of return back. As for Lucchesi, I’m sure they can get something in return that’s worthwhile, but not as much as Archer would
RedRooster
Why not? He has more club control and a lower ERA!
CubsRule08
Well I don’t really follow the Rays so I can’t really tell how good Lucchesi has been.
CubsRule08
However, if they can pull off a top prospect in all of baseball for Lucchesi, then good for the Rays. Archer is the big name, so it’s going to cost a steep price
RedRooster
Well if you followed the Rays you probably wouldn’t know how good Lucchesi has been either considering he plays for the Padres.
And you are saying that teams should trade premium prospects for Archer because of… name value? Not something smart GM’s do.
CubsRule08
Well seeing as Archer is a valuable piece because of the years of control remaining, the Rays aren’t going to give him up for pennies on the dollar. Whoever trades for him is going to have to give up something worthwhile for the Rays to pull the trigger. It’s common knowledge.
CubsRule08
Quintana got the White Sox both Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease (2 Top 100 prospects in all of baseball) + 2 others because Q had 3.5 years of control at a cheap price and is a durable LHP. Will Archer get that exact package? Who knows…but it’s going to be probably similar to that package most likely.
darkstar61
Archer is a case of a pitcher watching his value plummet the last two-three seasons, with trends that indicate the future quite likely is not that bright regardless of the contract.
Now the Rays may be leaning towards keeping him and seeing if he regains his prior ability/potential to get a better return if demands are not met. Of course, they could also be in a spot where they wish to get what they can while they still can (as the A’s did last year with Grey)
iverbure
His value is plummeting lol ok.
iverbure
Not sure why people on here try to talk players down as if it’s a negotiation. It’s hilarious GMs aren’t on here reading what you buffoons have to say. Must live in an alternative universe and believe your own lies.
Since 2015:
Archer has pitched the 7th most innings. In 2018 this is incredibly important given hardly anyone pitches 200 innings. For a team like the rays using the opener gimmick that’s even more valuable.
During that time his babip against is .311 which is the highest of all the other pitchers. Psst that means he’s been unlucky.
His era during that time is 3.84 which is decent while playing in the best division with those ballparks all being hitters parks with the expection being his home park.
His fip during that time is 3.40 again suggesting he’s been unlucky. Others with similar or worst fip during that time are some names like Greinke, Lester, Arrieta and Quintana.
The rays were forced to keep him in to log innings if you don’t think that adds on way more runs onto his era and don’t think a contender with a deep pen wouldn’t improve Archer than you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Also I’m not a Rays fan and if you thought I was because I’m capable of a unbiased opinion you’re a buffoon too.
darkstar61
It is because of stuff like this
GB% constant 46%-48% – 42 and 45% the last two seasons
and
HardContact% constant 31-33% – 39% and 40% last two seasons
That has all led to
BABip constant .290-.295 – is .325 and .343 last two seasons
and
HR/FB constant 10-12% – 16%, 14% and 13% last three seasons
3 seasons ago he was a guy off 3 straight years of posting ERA and/or FIPs in the 3.30 range. Now his FIPs are consistently over 3.50 while his ERA has been over 4.0 in each of the last 3 seasons – and his trends are getting worse, not better.
Teams are interested hoping to buy low. They are not going to give up anything near what they would have been willing to offer sometime during the 2016 season or before though. His value has plummeted
RedRooster
Again, the “unlucky” excuse doesn’t work anymore when he underperforms his FIP year-in and year-out. Some pitchers excel based on an ability to induce weak contact as opposed to doing it via the almighty strikeout. Then some guys like Archer are the other way around.
iverbure
Ok I’ll give you plummeted if you consider he was probably a top 5 valueable trade asset at the time in all of baseball. Now he be like the 50th. Still very valuable and that’s a stupid measurement sense the pre arb guys never get traded who make like 500k who are superstars so including them ahead of him is not smart.
JKB 2
Define premium. I agree in comparsion to rental players or 1 year control players Archer has more value but what is a premium. I hope you are not gonna come back with the Kings Ransom stuff people were saying for years
JKB 2
But Cubsrule you said earlier it would cost 2 top prospects “to start” then a couple more. Now you are comparing it to the Hand deal that was not even close to that.
Hand did NOT even bring one top prospect. Padres had to include Cimber to get one. Archer should get a top type prospect plus 2 lesser ones. More than Hand trade.
JKB 2
Oh Archer is a big name you say. So whats your point? You think Archer commands a boatload because of name recognition? Good luck with that.
JKB 2
@CubsRule
Quintana was coming off three good seasons in a row. Archer is coming off three poor seasons in a row. Huge difference.
JKB 2
@CubsRule
So now your argument is that its “common knowledge” to give something to get something? Of course. But how does that support your argument that (originally) it was two top prospects plus “a few more” prospects? Or your position (that was not true) that its costs big prospects due to “name recognition?”
I do not see anyone countering you that he gets “pennies on the dollar”. Which now you infer.
Its pennies on the dollar to your insane position that he gets bit prospects for name recognition only. He gets what he is worth. He just not is worth the boatload. He has value being young and 3 years of control and will net a nice return I just think his past 3 average seasons reset his value. He is not getting the Kings Ransom think he could have gotten in the past
JKB 2
Yea since he could have returned the “Kings Ransom” several years ago – yea his value has certainly decreased each year with each year losing one more year of control and each year pitching just average
darkstar61
Top 50 guys possibly traded this deadline? Sure. Top 50 valuable assets? Not even close
Look, he’s going to have to be traded to one of the other 29 teams. Those other 29 teams also scout him constantly to play against him though, and are the ones who have figured out that he is easy to hit off of.
Hitters are hitting him with absolute authority at this point. Sure, it means they K a bit more – but it also means they are able to place the ball anywhere they like. And it’s Archer that has changed, as evidenced by his 10-20% fewer Fastballs thrown and the fact hitters don’t have any issue with it.
This is so dramatically different than what he used to be that his ERAs have gone from one consistent to another:
2013-15 – 3.22, 3.33, 3.23
To
2016-18 – 4.03, 4.07, 4.31
That while hitters are currently sitting with a
.265/.319/.435/.754 line against the last 365 days
Archer is much more a reclamation project than a safe bet to produce, as right now he is showing trends seen in other early-30s-exiters like say Carlos Zambrano
No team should be foolish enough to trade all that much for that. That dramatically decreased value is largely why teams like SD are involved instead of just contenders. And that’s also why either TB will take what they can get or hold off desperately hoping he shows signs of improving a very quickly deteriorating game – and a quickly deteriorating game it is
justinept
As iberbure mentions, there is a premium on inning eaters. The guy consistently throws 200 innings of low 4ERA ball in a tough AL East. Is he a world beater? No. But that’s $20 million per year on the open market. I don’t think that’s of consequence to a contending team in late July, but it’s worth a lot to a team come April when you have 162 games left to play…
I said this when the Cubs traded for Quintana a year ago. They gave up a ton for him. But they were in dire need, not just for a guy who could start a playoff game, but for a guy to fit in the rotation for 2018-2020. They were, at that point, playing without a ML caliber 5th starter and had Arrieta and Lackey set to leave at seasons end. They effectively needed 3 starters for 2018, and there was no way they could afford that many quality arms on the open market. But Acquiring Quintana meant they just needed to sign one playoff quality arm and a 5th starter to remain competitive in 2018.
Can anyone really say that the Dodgers and Yankees, two prospect rich teams, don’t need multiple starters in 2019? They both do. And the prices will be exorbitant in FA. Trading for Archer makes it doable because they’d need to sign one less starter.
darkstar61
You do know that Archer, for his career, has a 3.30 ERA in Pitcher Friendly Tropicana and a 4.00 on the road, correct?
And that includes when he used to be much better than he is now, and came with generally a superior fielding TB club behind him.
Then, again
250/.316/.422/.738 – that is the AL Average line against Starting Pitchers this season
Now look at Archer since last year
.270/.315/.459/.774 – June 2017
.256/.326/.384/.710 – July
.211/.247/.408/.655 – Aug
.320/.371/.536/.908 – Sept
.306/.361/.522/.883 – April 2018
.204/.278/.321/.599 – May
.350/.435/.400/.835 – June
.302/.348/.419/.766 – July
He is unbelievably hittable at this point in his career.
Put him in a pitcher friendly park with lesser ranged guys and just imagine what happens to those batter-against lines!
Will some desperate contending team be foolish enough to target him hard with amazing offers? Possible (although the Padres apparently leading this indicates otherwise) – but if a team like the Yankees were the one to land him, you are likely looking at ERAs approaching, if not exceeding, 5.0 and the Sonny Grey situation all over again.
So ask yourself this, what exactly are Grey’s years of control and 200+ inning eating abilities worth to the Yankees right now?
padreforlife
Preller loves the names
JKB 2
And a couple more on top of those 2 “to start”. That sounds like an overpay
Solaris601
It’s very much an overpay. Archer isn’t a producer, he’s somebody’s project at this point. If a contender wants similar results for a much more reasonable price tag, hit SD up for Clayton Richard.
cards81
I hope the Cardinals are just seeing what the yanks are willing to give up for Archer and then move in and get those prospects for a cardinals pitcher…looking at getting that young third baseman from the Yanks…just a thought
JKB 2
His name js Andujar
Cardinals17
Personally, I wouldn’t want the Cardinals to trade for Archer. In my opinion, Weaver has comparable stats As Archer. So why give up a young Weaver with a years experience for a declining Archer.
callmenate
What about adding J. Martinez to that deal.
Kane U.
Why the hell would you want to give up Weaver for Archer? Archer is one of the most overrated pitchers in the game. Only thing good about Archer is he’s an innings eater, that’s it.
c1234
Man he literally called Bader bad..just wow
jorge78
Change of scenery candidate. I can’t even imagine how depressing it is to pitch for Tampa Bay…..
geejohnny
Actually most players that leave the Rays have worse years than with the Rays. One exception may be Dickerson who is having a slightly better yr.
tomselleck
Zobrist
Overbrook
Pitchers get worse when they leave the Rays…probably because they have a downgraded defense behind them on their new team.
Solaris601
And if you listen to the sabremetricians, Archer has simply been unlucky the past 3 years with a solid defense behind him. Just imagine how that luck will take a turn for the worse with another team with a collectively lower fielding percentage. Let’s face it – Archer’s contract and the fact that he eats innings are his two best qualities. Teams willing to send 2 top 10 prospects to TB for that?
murphy
I won’t believe it until it happens.
fasbal1
Stl..needs to make this deal for the future. Archer is a talent that will flourish in the right setting.
eileenyanks
yes, that is true, a different
atmosphere would hopefully help him. He needs a break!
Bryzzo2016
I can see a combination of Maddux and Yadi getting the best out of Archer, that could be a huge get for the Cards.
bradthebluefish
Ditto
troll
that sure worked for carlos martinez didn’t it
cards81
Carlos was actually pitching really well before his injuries…when he came back he had a rough couple of games but before he hurt himself again he turned it around and was throwing well again
JKB 2
What is the right setting
Solaris601
A setting with an uncharacteristically poor fielding team behind him I guess. That should equal a few wins, but wins and losses are antiquated stats, right?
pinkerton
If he goes to St. Louis, he can stand under the arch and be like, hey, I’m the real Arch. or Archer.
Never mind.
eileenyanks
lol, it was a good one Pink
c1234
Ha!
KnicksFanCavsFan
“Yeah but more people have come to see me in a month than you’ve ever had in all of your home games in that (cough) thing you call a stadium”.
-Arch
#architecturalburn
eileenyanks
yeah, but who is heating up for him, he is so over rated.
murphy
Your opinion doesn’t mean much.
T_Rexx2
He’s got the stuff but hasn’t had the numbers to back it up in a couple seasons, so he kind of is overrated.
eileenyanks
T-REXX, Nice to see a post
that makes my opinion count!! THANKS
MetsYankeesRedSox
This website needs an ignore button
eileenyanks
and a Trash Button MYR
thegreatcerealfamine
More like an eject button.
thegreatcerealfamine
Look out or you’ll be called a woman hater, puppet, and maybe even worse.
iverbure
You know what isn’t overrated any pitcher who logs 200 innings every year. RA Dickey was worth like 15 mil a year because he logged at least 180 innings every year.
How on earth is he overrated if anything he’s underrated.
thegreatcerealfamine
Never said either.
iverbure
Sorry replied to the wrong message on my phone it’s hard to tell where each one ends
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Archer is not an ace (it could be argued that he’s not even a #1) but he’s a really good pitcher, seems to be a really good guy and is a player any team (except maybe Houston) should want.
If the Pirates can sign Corey Dickerson to an extension, they could start a package with Austin Meadows…that’s a pretty good start. Archer is the only reportedly available player I’d part with Meadows to acquire.
Tom E. Snyder
Orbit loves him.
BlueSkyLA
Never been an Archer fan. On most teams he’d be a mid-rotation starter at best. Teams in competition are usually looking for something better than that, but in a starting pitching starved year, somebody will probably cough up.
User 4245925809
Agree. Seems teams were drooling over AJ Happ and archer is night and day better than him, or say Hamels at this point of both of their careers.
Not saying Archer is anything more than a #3, but like u said. compared to names being floated around (ex mets guys). he’s easily the best so far.
BlueSkyLA
Now it seems the Dodgers are in the mix, which kind of surprises me. Where does hit fit into the Dodgers’ rotation with Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Stripling, and Wood all performing better than Archer? Would they really give up what it takes to pick up Archer for him to be #5 and maybe not even be carried on the postseason roster? Maybe Stripling goes back into the pen in that scenario but still.
AJPGotThat2020Vision
He’s still young, fit, experienced, and in possession of a low 90s slider. I don’t blame teams for drooling over him. He’s a solid 3 who at any moment could click and return to being a premiere #1
BlueSkyLA
He’s been mediocre for the last three seasons and only a bit above average before that. On what team in competition would he be arguably #1 even if he returned to his form of four years ago?
iverbure
If archer is mediocre than there’s only 7 better pitchers in baseball during that time. Seems like something is off.
BlueSkyLA
How do you figure? Based on ERA+ he hasn’t been better than average since 2015.
MZ311
He’s got number 1 stuff. Put him in the NL and he’ll blossom.
KnicksFanCavsFan
Great post. Archer ISN’T a #1. He’s a weak #2 and a perfect #3 who on a few good days over the course of the year will pitch like a #1. He’s very desirable because of the 3/$28 mil contract he comes with. Another factor is he’s thrown a ton of innings (average of 200 IP the last 4 years). His contract is only guaranteed for 2019, The remaining two years are affordable options with a low buyout. If he breaks down there’s limited risk. Of course we hope it does’t come to that.
I think 1 top prospect in top 75 an a couple of guys in the 90-150 range under 21 yo is fair..
From the Yanks perspective one of either Frazier (if he was healthy)/Florial/Sheffield plus Chance Adams and one of Acevedo/Abreu would be how I see it.
I consensus top 50. One top 75-100 and Adams who will probably slide into that 100-150 range soon.but if he can fix himself is mlb ready in that he excelled at AAA before and regressed this year coming off of minor surgery.
Cardinals17
That’s Crazy. Way too much for the Yanks to give for Archer. (3-5 with a plus 4 ERA
pinballwizard1969
Offer Abreu, 1 of Adams/Gray or Cessa, Zack Zehner and Zack Breaux take it or leave it. That’s 2 Staring pitchers, OF’er and young catcher.
friar19
Please, not the Padres.
eileenyanks
friar,
I swear, the Padres are very interested..
lpothe
I agree, don’t want him on Padres. Would rather wait and time a move more in accordance with when the prospects come up.
AJPGotThat2020Vision
We can offer 1 Eric Hosmer in return
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I want to hope Preller isn’t actually stupid enough to go through with this, especially if they ask for Urias.
BuddyBoy
Even if he is viewed as a #2, the value of his contract raises the price.
Padres458
He’s nothing more then a number 3. His contract is more fair then a good deal
Garza Nathan
Needs the correct pitching coach.
Someone like Brent strom would do him very well.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
What happened to the Intense and Serious talks between Brewers and Orioles?
Why can’t I read imminent trade happening between O’s and Rockies?
Why can’t that happen
As for Archer, I hope he lands on a team where he can find himself and be happy.
murphy
Probably ended once brewers landed Moose.
Unless, the talk between Orioles/Brewers is towards Gauseman which wouldn’ make sense for brew crew as they need an ace and no some kid with upside.
AJPGotThat2020Vision
Ace L O C A T E D
Friarfaithful117
Quantrill or Mejia as a centerpiece I could understand but Urias I think should be off limits. There is a lot of depth the Padres can use without detracting from the core of the rebuild. Quantrill, Espinoza, and Naylor would be fair depending on how you view Archer’s track record and remaining years of control. I still think waiting until the offseason or next season makes more sense.
bleacherbum
Urias isn’t going anywhere, neither is Mejia. Those are elite prospects that AJ would be torched for trading. Urias because of the Mexico bloodline
bleacherbum
You would be missing out on a huge opportunity to have an Adrian Gonzalez 2.0 presence on both sides of the border. Fans would be flocking to Petco from parts of Tijuana etc. to see Urias. Don’t trade him Preller.
mlbfan1978
Naylor could be a good fit in Tampa. More of a DH than a position player. Would rather they keep Urias. Mejia could go as well. I like Renfroe but he will never get the playing time he needs as long as Andy “new lineup every night” Green is the manager. I see SD sending Mejia, Naylor, Quantrill, Gettys and Renfroe maybe adding Spang to Tampa. In five years we will look back and say the Padres blew it. Mejia will be an all star and Renfroe will be in the middle of his second 40 HR season.
bleacherbum
Replace Mejia with Austin Allen and you are getting close
bleacherbum
The Padres aren’t trading Mejia. No Urias. No Mejia. The Padres don’t NEED to do this, they want to. Meaning they shouldn’t and won’t overpay.
If the Yankees and Dodgers covet Archer more then just step aside and let them have him if the asking price is more than the proposed offer above.
The whole point of this for the Padres was to take “Extra Parts” log jam players, players who are at an excess at the position they play, rule 5 implications etc. It shouldn’t be trade the farm with a sense of urgency.
AJPGotThat2020Vision
Quantrill, Naylor, and Allen. 3 guys who are pretty much blocked and together they pretty closely approximate what Archer is worth now. I like it. The Rays can fix any pitching prospect and would love a project with first round pedigree. Naylors also blocked in TB but that’s what the DH is for. And Allen would be competing with Hernandez in TB, but too many catching specs is rarely a problem, especially for a franchise that has trouble developing them like Tampa. Plus TB LOVES helium guys.
Gettys could be a throw-in. He’s such a long shot that I don’t think he really has any value. I could see TB asking for Buddy Reed though, which would be a tough call.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Yeah if they really want to make a trade like this, then they need to only offer up prospects who are blocked and/or expendable. I wouldn’t mind seeing guys like Naylor and Quantrill go. They would be shooting themselves in the foot if they gave up Urias or Mejia. Those guys are way more important to the future.
azelch99
He’ll end up with either the Yankees or Brewers.
c1234
I’m pretty sure the Yankees got Happ I would be suppressed if there interested. Never mind the Yankees are never done trading.
azelch99
But Happ is just a rental, and the Yankees rotation is very questionable with Tanaka’s health and Sabathia’s age. While I think Archer would slot in nicely behind Severino, and would probably improve, since he doesn’t have to be the “ace” in the Yankee’ s rotation.
JKB 2
J. A. Happ is not going to stand in the way of the Yankees pursuit of Archer
koldjerky
Phillies Phillies Phillies please!!!!
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
How about Dylan Bundy
Andy Mac liked him, that is why he drafted him
JKB 2
OMG how can people keep thinking Archer is an ace? He is not even close to being a No. 1 starter
eileenyanks
and you JKB won the reality prize!! I hear ya!!
rtrgobraves
He’s definitely not an ace but he would be a #1 on ALOT of teams.
darkstar61
That isn’t an indication of his ability at all though. That is an indication of teams currently being in different situations.
Reality is, he would not be a true #1 on good teams – even if, sure, he might be that on some rebuilding clubs with limited talent in their rotation. That’s a statement that can be said about a bunch of starters who are not #1s
thecoffinnail
He would not be a true #1 on any team. He would be an Ace on several like Baltimore, Kansas City, and Texas.
eileenyanks
yup
eileenyanks
coffin, you forgot the bad news bears ⚾️⚾️⚾️⚾️
JKB 2
He would not be a number one on alot of teams as rtrgobraves suggested. He is not an ace on any team. Being a no. 1 starter does not = ace. It means you are only the best starter on your team. So he may be no. 1 on who? White Sox? KC? Baltimore? Big deal so what?
Team are not paying ace prices for someone who will be no. 1 on their team only because the rotation stinks
Solaris601
This is the same conversation people were having about Jeff Samarzdija a few years ago. It was clear to most rational people he was overrated, and the results just never materialized despite the insistence of some that he was just unlucky/lacked run support/etc. That crowd has finally quieted down years after it’s become undeniable that Shark never was what anyone thought he’d be, and Archer is following squarely in his footsteps.
cwsOverhaul
Probably fair for Rays to use Quintana deal as a comp with the 3+ yrs of cheap control for a pretty good (not great) reliable starter. Pretty steep to match quality of Eloy/Cease + couple throw-ins.
thecoffinnail
That is probably a pretty good comp, except Quintana had much better numbers prior to being traded. Cubs were also pretty desperate for a TOR arm with a lot of control remaining.
The problem with Archer is that he is one of those in between pitchers. He isn’t quite a surefire TOR arm but at the same time he is better than a #3. Kind of like Tanaka, Corbin, Fulmer, Gonzalez and (until the last month or so) Happ. Plus, his contract adds quite a bit of value. His return should set the market for the next couple of years on cost controlled good but not great pitchers.
The Rays seem to like young MLB players when it comes to trading their starters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go back to the Cubs for Happ and a prospect or 2. The Padres for Margot and Paddack (or another quality arm) makes sense as well.
JKB 2
So what your really saying is that its no a good comp and I would agree with you
marinest21 2
Why, Padres? Why?
If anything, this screams of an impatient and impulsive Ron Fowler.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Exactly.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if all this trade talk comes from the owners complaining that the rebuild is taking too long. It would not be the first time it’s happened. What Fowler fails to realize is that this isn’t football. Legitimate rebuilds usually take longer than 1-2 seasons (if they want it done right).
iverbure
Buster Olney has said he thinks that’s what is fueling these rumours. It was on his podcast can’t remember if that was just his speculation or he spoke to someone within the organization.
Again for those of you who can’t read, those aren’t my words I’m just repeating what Buster said.
bbatardo
Padres would be dumb to chase him because they are way off from competing right now. They are better off just calling up some of the young pitchers to see what they can do. Joey Lucchesi comes to mind.. he’s pitched better than Archer so far this year and while it’s a small sample size, the point is how would Archer be upgrade if a few other young arms put up similar results?
macrohard69
Would like the Mets to make a play for Archer…..would Dominic Smith, Corey Oswalt and Anthony Kay be enough?
rtrgobraves
No
bleacherbum
Lol that’s a pathetic offer, your scraps for Archer? Cmon Corey Oswalt!!?? Lol
hojostache
lol. As a mets fan…this was a good laugh. I’d take that in a second.
bigturtlemachine
Might Cincinnati be a sleeper in this? With the addition of two strong SPs, the Reds could contend next season. The prospect capital certainly is there.
kenphelps44
Smart game plan on A.J. Preller’s part. By acquiring controllable Archer and his team friendly contract he would still have plenty of salary room to add a big time free agent in the off season, say Bryce Harper, thus strengthening his team on two major fronts and accelerating the Padres chance for contention in the NL West at least by one full year. Even if he gives up some quality prospects to land Archer he still has a very deep system with near ready ML talent to augment what he would have on the 25 man roster in 2019. Sometimes I think people worry too much on what prospects “might” become rather than what an established Major Leaguer already is. Successful businesses are not run on fear, they are run on aggressiveness. They take chances. Atta boy A.J., go for it while other teams sit on their hands and watch the show from the stands.
Wolverines2
Way too many things need to fall in place for this proposal to make sense to me…Harper? 10 years – $350 million? I don’t see that being wise at all for the Padres – How will they pay the rest of these guys when they get to their arb years? They need pitching – for sure…the hope is that a lot of it is in the minors and will be making it’s way up…the time to strike on big free agents – or gigantic ones – is when you are ready to go win a World Series…Way too many holes on this team to start thinking that Archer and Harper are going to turn it all around…Look at the top of the rotation for Washington. Look at their lineup. And that is a third place team. The Padres chance at sustained success is an affordable, young, talented roster – possibly augmented at the 11th hour by a big acquisition. But that shouldn’t be now and it shouldn’t be Archer – in my opinion.
kenphelps44
Ok, so we disagree. That’s fine but let me ask you, do you have really think A.) the salary for ML starting pitchers with that kind of experience is going down in the future? B.) the cost in prospects for controllable starting pitchers, which is probably at an all time high, will go down in the future? C.) Have you looked at what the Padres projected t am salary is for 2019 and beyond? The fact is by acquiring a pitcher of what Archer brings to a team, whether it be a 1 or a 3 starter giving the GM payroll flexibility beyond this year. Every year there are surprise teams who become contenders. Do you really believe that they signed Hosmer last year on your timetable? A.J. Knows his team and where they are going forward, give him some credit. Additionally there is a point of diminishing returns on prospects, poster children like Appel and Profar are perfect examples. How many times did you hear, “Oh we would NEVER give up Profar!”?
Wolverines2
Do not get me wrong. I like Archer just fine. I love his contract. On a team that is really looking to contend, I would say he is a number 2 at best though…I do not like the Padres chances of winning the division with Archer as the ace. Of course the prospects are not all going to make it but I do not remember a time when this organization had as much depth and quality of talent in the minor leagues. I am all for making a move at some point. I just think it is too early. Can we agree that the Padres are kind of hanging their hat on Tatis and Urias manning the middle and batting in the middle of the order when they realistically are going to contend? They are not ready. I agree that the Hosmer signing does not fit the timetable that I am throwing out there. This does not mean that I agree with the signing…like the player. He is having a bad year. His contract, along with Myers may really haunt them though…its great that we won’t be paying Matt Kemp anymore, but have you seen what Myers will be making? I am just saying that as a lifelong fan, I am pretty excited about the future of the organization for the first time in a long time. Deviating from what seems like a really good plan for a smaller-market team by opening the oven too many times to see if the roast is ready, seems like a misstep to me…
marinest21 2
“accelerating the Padres chance for contention in the NL West at least by one full year”
This sounds eerily similar to the 2015 offseason, in which new ownership gave up the majority of their farm system for “big name” and “proven” major leaguers in order to increase relevant and generate interest in the teams. You could even argue that outibidding themselves and signing Hosmer was made under similar pretenses.
I say this because these moves have not resulted in any sort of sustained success, rather they have had the completely opposite intended effect of setting back the rebuilding of the team. How many times are we going to make this mistake? Bryce Harper and Chris Archer are not going to turn the Padres into a viable NL contender, especially given the prospects and treasure it will take to acquire both of them.
Wolverines2
In fairness to Ken, I believe he was suggesting Archer as the trade for prospects – controllable and affordable. Then – in the off season, Harper as the big sign. Not affecting prospects – but maybe affecting the ability to afford the rest of the team in my opinion…especially with the commitments to Myers and Hosmer which, in my opinion are not a great fit financially for this team either.
marinest21 2
I understood what he meant. I don’t think my answer implied any confusion.
Again, I don’t think trading for archer (prospects) and/or signing Harper (treasure) is what this team should do. On the latter, that’s why I brought up the hosmer deal. Didn’t make sense at the time and still doesn’t. In fact, trading for archer and signing Harper would be very similar to trading for Myers and signing hos. Why repeat the same mistakes?
SixFlagsMagicPadres
The Padres will never be able to afford Harper. Especially with how Myers is going to start getting expensive soon and the arb years for the younger guys will start taking effect. At least they were smart enough to front load Hosmer’s contract.
Making those types of moves at this point would just bring back the nightmare that was the 2015 season. They can still be aggressive without being stupid. The thought of giving up Urias in a package for overrated Archer right now screams stupidity.
They currently have the worst record in the NL. They need to stand pat, call up more guys from the farm, and see what they being to the table. Then starting in the offseason or next season, they can start looking to make moves (maybe trade for Syndergaard if they’re looking for a young controllable starter).
Padres458
Are farm was bad tho. We did quite well from those trades.
hiflew
I find it hard to believe that Archer will be worth the price you will have to pay to get him. FIP might say he is unlucky, but bad luck should not last your entire career. At some point, we need to realize that some players look much better in the stats than they do on the field and vice versa. There are some good players that WAR seems to hate and there are some players that are not as good as FIP and WAR say they are.
majorflaw
“ . . . some players look much better in the stats than they do on the field . . . “
Archer’s best year was 212 IP with a 1.137 WHIP. While that is good it’s not what you’d expect from an “ace”. And that was his best year. Kershaw and Scherzer have both had multiple seasons with >200 IP and <1.0 WHIP. That’s what an ace does. Archer would/will be a mid-rotation starter for a playoff team, and that does have value as do the additional controllable years, but his reputation appears to have exceeded his performance to date.
Solaris601
Well said. Any team who feels that a change of scenery is gonna change Archer’s luck is fooling themselves. That was the theory when Samarzdija was bouncing around, and he was the same underperforming pitcher he always was in a different uniform.
stymeedone
Scherzer was a change of scenery candidate when he went to Detroit. How’d that work out?
pdubs2907
Have to remember too that Archer has a great contract.
Injediwetrust
Dont understand Urias being discussed and feel that would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. If true, the Padres front office learned nothing from 2014/2015 and the “ it was all Mike Dee.s fault”. would take a serious hit.
Purge Tyson Ross, bring up Brett Kennedy and Logan Allen and reevaluate at the end of the season. Chris Paddack could be maneuvering for a rotation spot in 2019. Move along AJ.
Outside of Wil, Hos, and Manuel there are question at every other position that won’t be sorted out for at least 12 to 24 months. Three top 100 players for a solid #3 arm is ridiculous at this time.
marinest21 2
Great post. Contenders are strong up the middle, and the Padres have gone so long without set of starting MINF’ers that make others envious. Tatis Jr. and Urias have that ability, and with the way AJ has controlled their service time, to do so for an extended period of time.
I’d rather take Urias/Tatis Jr. up the middle for six years – and a rotation that includes Quantrill – rather than three years of Archer.
Wolverines2
agree completely.
bleacherbum
Padres fans need to relax, Preller isn’t going to shoot himself in the foot again. The most and I mean the MOST I can see him giving up to acquire Archer is something like:
LHP Eric Lauer, RHP Cal Quantrill, 1B/DH Josh Naylor and C Austin Allen for SP Chris Archer.
That’s two 2016 first round picks, one who is the in Padres rotation already and has shown flashes of brilliance, just needs more time. Naylor and Allen are two guys playing at AA both hitting over .300 with pop, prospect haul in the deal would be the Padres 10,15,25 plus a major leaguer who was ranked in the top 10 before his promotion, 7 or 9 I believe. That’s a lot.
marinest21 2
I don’t think (we) Padres fans are upset over who may be included in any Archer deal, rather it’s frustration over why we are even considering trading for him at all.
The team’s nearest contention window is 2020. Even with Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Paddack, and the Allen(s), it is entirely unrealistic to expect them to contribute enough to overcome the Dodgers in 2019 (their rookie seasons). That leaves 2020 and 2021, so really any trade of Archer would be hedging a ton of value (prospects) on a two-year window.
I think to most on here – and the industry itself – that doesn’t make much sense. At least not now.
bleacherbum
All of the prospects accumulated over the last few years is starting to purge at the seems. It’s only responsible to take a handful of chips that you are most likely going to lose anyways to waiver, rule 5 draft, etc. Why not packages the ones you are still unsure of to not only clean space on the roster but to add someone who has been in the league for a little on a reasonable salary. The system is so deep that a trade of this magnitude would hardly effect it.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I can understand why they would be interested in a controllable starter. And bleacher bum makes a good point with packaging up some the prospects for a trade so they don’t lose them to rule 5. But it’s just the fact that they are looking to make this prospect investment in Archer.
Why not just go for the whole enchilada and trade for Syndergaard? He’s younger, better, controlled longer, and has a much higher ceiling than Archer. If it takes guys like Quantrill, Naylor, Espinoza, Allen, etc, then why not go for it? The farm will be taking a hit regardless, but if this is really what they want to do, then I’d rather see those prospects invested in something that could bring back a higher return (Thor > Archer).
bleacherbum
As long as when all these “trades” are done, the farm still looks like:
Tatis Jr, Gore, Urias, Mejia, Paddack, Logan Allen, Lawson, Buddy Reed.
Then I’m good.
Have anything else but leave that. Please and Thank you
juicemane
Preller shooting himself in the foot?? They just signed him to a multiyear extension!!! What are you guys watching??? Just keep pulling stuff out of your @$$
Stop mentioning minor league stats. They dont matter. Swanson and jp Crawford Orlando arcia the list keeps going, were awesome in minors. How did that work out? Phillies and Braves Brewers scrambling for middle infield help
marinest21 2
There’s a couple of problems here with your argument.
1) Swanson, Crawford, and Arcia are all under the age of 25. It’s way, way too early to start implying they are busts/will not live up to their potential. This is what happens when guys like Harper, Trout, Bellinger, Soto, and Acuna make waves when they hit the show. Everyone starts thinking that’s the norm – to be that good that young – when it’s in fact the exception. Using the above three to promote the argument that “milb stats/prospects don’t matter for MLB potential” is not effective.
2) While Preller has made some good deals, he’s also swung and missed, especially when making moves for big-name MLBers like this potential one. Let’s go back to 2015 and the trades for Wil Myers, Mat Kemp, and Justin Upton. We gave up Trea Turner, Joe Ross, Jake Bauers, Yasmani Grandal, Zach Elfin, Max Fried, and Mallex Smith.
Would you rather have those seven – who were all prospects and still had their entire rookie contracts/6 years of control remaining – for 1 year of Upton (left as FA in 2016?), 4 years of Myers, and four years of Kemp? Put differently, how would you feel about an infield with Tatis Jr, Trea, Urias, and Bauers for the next 5-6 years? And a rotation during that time that would include Elfin, Ross, and Fried?
By the way, Hosmer is making $21 million and has a o.1 WAR. Jake Bauers has a 1.2 WAR and is making a whopping $545k this season.
andrewgauldin
Is this really necessary for the Padres to acquire him? Archer is going to cost the Padres some top prospects obviously not named Tatis. The Padres window for contention hasn’t even opened yet, and probably won’t open until 2020. Why give up multiple top prospects for a guy that is probably only going to be the difference of a 75 win season to a 78 win season… I would much rather see the Padres resigning a guy like Clayton Richard, or bring up some of their top prospects. If not, then bring up some of the journeymen in AAA and see what they got, it does not hurt a team that is not in their contention window. And lastly, imo, Archer just isn’t worth the top prospects. We can all debate on what prospects would be involved in the trade, but Archer just isn’t that Ace that we once thought. Yes he has team control, yes he can be subject to change of scenery, but their top prospects can also say the same. Not worth it if they are not in their contention window.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Archer arguably hasn’t been an ace since 2015. He’s like another Sonny Gray.
winston714
Someone gets it! Maybe he pitches better. But mid rotation guy, not a bad pitcher to have but don’t overpay.
Judge Judy
This is why Andujar is sitting today. Andujar, Frazier and Medina for Archer.
costanza
He’s sitting because they’re playing a double header…
c1234
Lol them darn Yankees fans
driftcat28 2
Why stop there? Add Gleyber & Sheffield too
baronbeard
If Frazier played for us he’d have enough time at the Trop to learn to miss the speakers.
imindless
This dude is soooo overrated!!!! Career 4 era. Lol tampa is delusional expect top prospect for at best a 4…
murphy
LOL dodgers is delusional expect to get talent without giving talent in any trade.
imindless
Except thats what we do, look at the darvish trade, jose del leon trade, and currently the machado trade. NONE of the prospect dodgers trade amount to anything. Take it your a rays fan lol goodluck with that
daved
NO TO ARCHER. The Cardinals don’t need him.
justin-turner overdrive
Every single person who brings up Archer’s ERA needs to never post in here again.
Career FIP: 3.48.
2018 FIP: 3.62.
RedRooster
The bad luck excuse stops working when the same thing happens 3 years in a row.
bleacherbum
Right? Geez
darkstar61
Worse than just that. Only once in his entire career has he outperformed his FIP – that being 2013 when he had a 3.22 ERA off his extremely uncharacteristically nice 79% strand rate.
Otherwise he has been rather average in many important stats for his career, and has even been trending downward on some extremely important ones like grounder rate, babip, HR/FB and hard contact the last 3 seasons. Those red flags indicates he may be losing stuff and/or hitters have further figured him out recently on top of him always failing to perform up to his underlying numbers
Solaris601
When I’ve watched his starts over the past several years I’ve never said to myself, “Wow, now this guy knows how to pitch.” The league adjusted to him in 2016, and he’s failed to make subsequent adjustments of his own. It really is that simple.
differentbears
Exactly, Rooster. At some point, you no longer are “unlucky,” and you become another Jeff Samardzija.
hiflew
Sometimes players are overachievers and sometimes they are underachievers. A guy like Jake Arrieta routinely outperforms his FIP while Archer routinely underperforms. After a while, you can’t blame it on luck anymore.
BTW, taking the position that you are smartest person in the room only sets you up for disappointment when you are proven wrong. Just some friendly advice, take it or leave it.
jdgoat
If he ever puts it all together, he’ll be a CY young candidate. If Tampa thinks that can happen, they’re gonna need a massive overpay to move him
lowtalker1
It better not be urias
bleacherbum
It won’t be.
RedRooster
You’d be surprised
juicemane
It could be urias +++…you prospect fanatics lol
bleacherbum
It’s not just because he is a prospect. It’s because he is from Mexico, and if you saw the love that Villanueva got during that Padres vs. Dodgers series a few months ago, you’d understand why the Padres would be smart to keep Urias and market the heck out of him. He would be a hit and those fans would cross the border and up the 5 north to Petco to some see him.
Don’t forget this is a business $$$.
bleacherbum
Go ask the Angels how much dough is coming in from just Ohtani being there. When you embrace another countries player especially when there haven’t been a lot of them, you get the masses out to root for them.
It’s bigger than baseball sometimes.
lowtalker1
It’s not every day you find a player like him
And archer is not worth more than a hunter Getty’s and Austin Allen
SixFlagsMagicPadres
You do realize that all players, from the stars to the scrubs, were once prospects right?
I think we all know that not every Padres prospect is going to live up to their potential. There’s going to be some that bust and underwhelm. However, the key to success is setting themselves up to have the highest chance of hitting on some of those prospects. Would you rather the Padres decrease those chances by trading away some of their highest rated prospects right now? There has to be a fine balance in giving up some talent, but also keeping other talent. It’s not being a “prospect fanatic”, it’s seeing how they go about utilizing certain assets over others, with some being more valuable than others.
its_happening
Anthony Alford, Logan Warmoth, Riley Adams, Jordan Romano and another young arm in low A ball for Archer. Blue Jays need a starter or two for next year.
Strauss
Archers a bum. Either hurt or just over rated.
simschifan
Yankees again smfh
Flash105
Yanks and Dodgers? These pigs want everyone. Greedy and inept since they never are world champs anymore, and won’t be this year either.
phreddyl
Pigs? Seriously? Why are they pigs? Because they are smart enough to put a good team together and compete every year? Because they have a great farm system and have prospects other teams want?
ctguy
Just another whiney Yankee hater
MetsYankeesRedSox
From this post and the others that follow, it might be time for MLBTR for kids. Go stick some baseball cards in your bicycle spokes.
mgrap84
Because they have the money and the prospects and a FO that knows what it takes to win. Can’t hate on a team that knows what it takes to win. Im an Orioles fan and our FO has no idea what it takes.
stymeedone
Sure you can. What it takes to win is $$$$. Being the team in the largest market is not a skill.
juicemane
More than a dozen MLB teams are interested in Archer but the pundits on here say he wouldn’t pitch well in Petco. Or Effn Luis Urias is too much to give up for Archer. Omg I can’t believe you people exist.
its_happening
Archer would be more than fine in Petco.
juicemane
That’s what I’m saying, Let’s start trading these lottery tickets for some cheap young mlb players with control
its_happening
If ready to contend next year, absolutely. Padres seem to be 2020-2021. I know Archer is under control for a couple years. Is that the best play at this present time?
Padres458
Archer isnt young
astick
Trammell, Santillan, Tyler Stephenson and Shed Long get Archer?
Slick34
Nooooo Way man… That’s #2, #5, #7, & #8 prospects in a loaded farm.. This isn’t the Cubs farm where our best remaining prospects are door greeters from Wal-Mart
Dotnet22
How about Weaver, Kelly, and Jose Martinez? JMart needs to be a DH.
Cardinals17
As far as the Cardinals rebuilding goes, I have no problem with that at all!! I do have a huge problem with the Cardinals giving John Mozeliak the chance to distort the rebuilding process. Mozeliak has proven he is just a numbers man. That’s it!! He’s had his chance and blown it with his philosophy of Low Hanging Fruit. Michael Girsch should be the person to rebuild. So please Cardinal Ownership….On behalf of 3 Million loyal fans a year…..DON’T LET MOZELIAK HAVE A SAY IN THE REBUILDING OF THE CARDINALS.
Melchez
The only way I see the Yankees pulling this off is if a third team steps in and takes on Sonny Gray. Maybe Gray and Tyler Wade for a couple mid-level prospects that are flipped to Tampa? Yankees send a couple good prospects… Rays get 4 for 1.
Thronson5
This guys been rumored to be in the Dodgers radar for a long time but they haven’t been willing to give him up. I think he has talent and would do good at Dodgers stadium and some of those pitcher friendly parks in the NL West but I also don’t think he’s as good of a pitcher as some make him out to be. But with that said I’d still love for the Dodgers to get guy.
corey5kersh22
Kershaw archer hill Stripling is a pretty good playoff rotation, with maeda and wood in the bullpen we’d be electric
philsphan1979
I Hope the Yankees get him, and it turns into another sonny gray deal. Them greedy SOAB’s. And I hope they lose in the first series of the playoffs too..they completely ruin the fun in baseball for the rest of the 29 teams. They would buy the entire AL all star team if it was for sale
ctguy
That’s being a little dramatic
driftcat28 2
Rough day, bud? =(
MetsYankeesRedSox
What is wrong with NL All Stars??
Boogaloo
Lol, need a safe space and a cookie little feller?
mgrap84
Damn salty much. If you have the money or the prospects then why not. Let them waste their money and young players.
leftcoaster
Archer will be wearing Dodger blue.
spudchukar
Iwould be happy with a Cards’ acquisition of Archer, assuming Kelly would be the centerpiece. A move out of the AL East hitters parks, DH, and Yadi to guide him ought to lower his numbers considerably. Plus he is a great teammate and is a consummate pro, especially his work in tough parts of the community, which there are plenty of in St. Louis. Hudson, Kelly, and Jose Martinez should get it done.
Wainofan
Carson kelly, Ryan helsley and Oscar Mercado plus lower level lottery ticket type prospect and cards should be in on archer. This or similar package.
darkstar61
Helsley has missed almost the past 2 months with shoulder issues.
And that is a lot of upper/B-range prospects for a constant under-achiever with trends indicating he’s now on a sharp decline
driftcat28 2
No thanks. The Yankees don’t need another Sonny Gray in the rotation
NCYankee
Better get a above average starter soon or bite the Bullet and bring up Sheffield! His last 3 starts Sevy has tanked
ctguy
Agreed. It’s time to see what Sheffield can do.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Agreed.
That KC powerhouse lit him up today.
dgrfns52
can’t see Dodgers having interest. Archer would be like 8th starter in LA.
Richard K
I can see the dodgers getting him and the Yankees are like a wounded animal they have nothing SP wise and it appears teams have figured out the new delivery of Severino.Instead of Britton they needed to go for SP now they are gasping at straws and if not careful both the Mariners and the Athletics could catch them and bounce them out of the wildcard. They are a one trick pony if they are not hitting HRs they are hard-pressed to score much.
spudchukar
Still say Cards, too much redundant talent. Plenty to offer!
MetsYankeesRedSox
100% agree about Yanks need for big name pitcher
Adolpho67
Archer is not worth more than a couple good prospects. Last 3 years have seen declining performance and he’s now over 30 years old. Rats should have traded him 3-4 years ago, now they face getting lower return for him.
Cardinals17
I agree peepleus18
JKB 2
He is not over 30. Is actually 29 at the present time but I agree his value has declined
Rickey O'Sunnyvale
Stripling, Forsythe and Will Smith for Archer.
baronbeard
Why would they want Forsythe back when he’s worse now than when they had him?
BlueSkyLA
As the price of getting two longterm controllable assets. I wouldn’t care for such a deal but I see the logic in it for both teams.
norcalblue
Will Smith and other prospects, yes. No way Strip gets included in a deal for a guy who has yet to demonstrate he knows how to pitch or is even making progress.
SanDiegoTom
Please, just say no Aj and stay the course. Being a padres fan is stressful.
JKB 2
Tampa wants Tatis Jr. in the deal
JKB 2
Padres better say no
SanDiegoTom
Makes zero sense for pads to trade the SS they’ve been desperately searching for.
RedRooster
Didn’t make sense 4 years ago and yet they traded Turner anyway
Knowthemarket
I feel ya. I’m a Braves fan holding my breath hoping the Braves make intelligent moves. It’s hard to believe the Padres would trade Tatis for Archer. Seem the only pitcher you would even entertain the thought of trading Tatis would be deGrom and even then I think they should resist.
When I looked at the Padres farm I see there top three prospects almost equally in value. They have plenty of top notch talent outside those three if they feel it’s time to make a big move.
MetsYankeesRedSox
It’s time the Yankees blow the Mets away with an offer for deGrom. If they don’t, their season, even in a one game wild card, is over. They have the prospects and I bet they’re willing. Someone smack the Mets GMs offside the head. It would be a great trade for both NYC teams.
PopeMarley
The fans should stage a sit-in at the Mets Front Office till they make the trade.
smoked_gouda
Im willing to bet, or maybe not due to wilpons stubbornness, that if Yanks offered Sheffield, Florial, Abreu and [insert bullpen arm] they get it done. Problem is Yanks don’t want to include Sheff in anything.
James Solomon
No thanks. Start with Torres or andujar
Boogaloo
I have never seen such an average pitcher be so over valued.
Any team that gives up a number 1 starter haul for him should have their franchise taken away.
Hes a solid pitcher, the same age as degrom.
Hes not 24 and has untapped potential, this is probably the best he’ll be. And close to actually starting to decline.
Any decline from him and then what is he?
DodgerBlueSince82
Archer is a solid starter…but deGrom is without a doubt much better than him. It’s not even close at this point
JKB 2
Well said Boogaloo!
DodgerBlueSince82
Archer’s last few seasons have been underwhelming statistically and definitely hasn’t preformed like the “Ace” or #1 he’s shown capable of being in the past.
But with that said, The Dodgers should absolutely still be interested in acquiring him via trade. Sure, he’s not worth giving up a kings ransom for like deGrom or Syndergaard would be, but there’s no doubt he’s worth a solid return of good prospects. His potential along with the multiple years of control left on his deal make him worth being aggressive in trade talks with the Rays. I think he would be a great fit in the Dodgers starting rotation and would thrive pitching in the NL/NL West. It would also allow one or more of the current starters to slide into the bullpen.
I’m really interested to find out what the Rays are able to get for him if he is indeed traded before the deadline
JKB 2
I agree DodgerBlue. He is worth a solid return. If Tampa gets that Archer is not worth more you may get something done
simschifan
At some point in a guys career like definitely in his 8th year you can’t say he has potential. He’s just not that good and his numbers are starting to show that. I really don’t understand why some of you think he is good.
darkstar61
.250/.316/.422/.738
That is the AL Average line against Starting Pitchers this season
Now look at Archer since last year
.270/.315/.459/.774 – June 2017
.256/.326/.384/.710 – July
.211/.247/.408/.655 – Aug
.320/.371/.536/.908 – Sept
.306/.361/.522/.883 – April 2018
.204/.278/.321/.599 – May
.350/.435/.400/.835 – June
.302/.348/.419/.766 – July
In that last year+ of month-by-month breakdown you can see one truly good results month (May ’18) and one month he had a lower BA/OBP but was still hit very hard on SLG/ISO (Aug ’17) – otherwise he has 6 months where he was hit like an average at best to even straight horrible starter (in September of 2017 the hitters he faced averaged a batting line like the one of Kris Bryant! No wonder he went 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA that month)
There is something seriously wrong with his game. At this point, he is unbelievably hittable and opponents are having little difficulty against him.
And just think, he is having those kinds of lines against him with TB, a team with one of the better defensive ranges (ranked 6th) fielding behind him – imagine if it were a poor range club like the Dodgers (ranked 21st) fielding the contact he is allowing
If I were a contending team, I would not be acquiring him anticipating him truly being an upgrade over what I already have during a playoff push. If anything, I would be worried he will fall further off the cliff.
And in case you are curious, NL hitters are putting up a not that dissimilar .248/.317/.410/.727 line against starters,
Nico480
Hedges, Quantrill, jankowski for archer
Mejia takes over for hedges, Quantrill is expendable with all the pitching in the system, and jankowski is a good lefty lead off guy with speed. All controllable mostly major league ready.
SanDiegoTom
Or you know, just stay away from archer all together…
mgrap84
The Padres are not making the playoffs so why would they trade for him. Going from one non-contending team to another. Archer is probably mad lol but the Rays will trade him to any team willing to give the best offer.
mgrap84
I think Archer has been bad because in general the Rays have not been very good. He is still only 29 and still has a good amount of years left in him. I think a change of scenery and a contender could be what turns him around. Only time will tell though.
luclusciano
What are your used ng to say bad? W-L record?? He is above league average in nearly all advanced stats.
mack22 2
I thought SD was rebuilding, why do this now?
darkstar61
Try to buy lower, fix him and flip him again for higher return later, one would have to assume.
Padres have been doing this with pitchers recently, and have had some success. Not a horrible idea.
justinept
Because the Padres have an elite farm system of players that should be ready by next year, and as happened with the Cubs, Braves, and Phillies, they think they can go from bad to playoff contention in one off season.
So why not make a move for a cost controlled starter like Archer who can stabilize the rotation at a fraction of the salary it would take for the same player on the open market.
marinest21 2
I hear what you’re saying, but the Braves and Phillies are different. To date, the Braves haven’t mortgaged their future/really any prospects for that matter by trading for some big-name MLB player. The reason they’ve
had so much success is because they’ve actually been patient and let the kids grow (Albies, Folty,
Newcomb, Acuna, etc) rather than trading them away. That’s what padres fans are worried about – that any trade for archer would give up these type of prospects who could make more
of an impact in an padres uniform than archer could.
Likewise, the Phillies have the $$ to spend the padres don’t. Sure Hoskins, Crawford, elfin, and even Velasquez have been good, but Arrieta and Santana were only the first two pieces in what figures to be massive
spending spree. Expect them to make a run at both Machado and/or Harper plus more. The padres don’t have the money or luxury – esp after signing Hosmer – to make that happen.
Yes, the Phillies and Braves have made giant steps in a short period of time. But both teams did it their own way given their respective resources. The padres trading for archer doesn’t fit into their own mold and the strength of their org. If anything, they should follow Atlanta’s game plan and stay patient. They aren’t going anywhere fast. And archer doesn’t change that, esp at the expense of guys like Mejia and urias.
stymeedone
Rebuilding does not limit a team to minor league prospects. Trades and FA signings are allowed.
Philliesfan4life
Archer makes sense for the phillies in my eyes, But if the rays want sanchez in return then no deal.
Rob B
Archer is not worth what they are asking for him. ERA north of 4 last two seasons and they value him as a #1? People were recently talking about trading Carlos Martinez and now we are talking about overpaying in talent for Archer, I don’t get it. I’d rather have Martinez. Sure Archer would be a great get … at a reasonable price. If the Rays wanted to trade up for a couple of pitchers whose age is more in line with their minor league talent, then St Louis is the trade partner they need. But they want way too much and there are pitching hungry teams out there driving his price past the reasonable range.
Kwflanne
I have a bad feeling Preller is about to get taken to school again…..
The rays are likely going to the Padres with “both the Yankees and dodgers NEED a starter for playoff purposes this year… so THEY are offering X,Y,Z… because they need it badly… are you willing to meet that price AJ Preller? For a guy who does nothing for your team this year or next year?”
AJ Preller: “hey I’m the guy who just bid against myself and the royals for eric hosmer….. count me in on this deal also!”
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I just imagine Fowler in a phone conversation with Preller, channeling his inner Braves fan: “Make it happen Aj! I’m tired of seeing our pitchers suck, so you need to do something now! I don’t care what it costs! I thought we were supposed to be a .500 team by now?!”
marinest21 2
Me too 🙁
nyy42
JUNK
TennVol
Honestly, Happ is a better pitcher right now than Archer. His cheap contract the only draw for teams right now. Archer is the usual Rays pitcher that gets used and abused and then traded before they bottom out in value. Rays are great at developing pitchers to the majors, then wearing them out and trading them while they can. Price is the only one i can think of that has even been moderately effective after being traded.
Philliesfan4life
To me right now , Archer makes the most sense for the phillies. They have the prospects and the payroll to take on the contract. If they don’t have to give up Sanchez, then I would do the deal.
geejohnny
Wearing them out? Shoot….the Rays haven’t had a complete game in 2 yes. What do you really mean by that comment? Bullpen…..you have a point but not the starters.
darkstar61
TB is a pitchers park, and the team often heavily values fielding. They also use things like the shift to extremes and are always looking for any advantage they can grab.
That is part of what makes a guy like Archer constantly under performing (higher ERA than FIP expects and trending worse) so alarming. That he’s going on 30 and become so unbelievably hittable at this point creates a perfect storm of “possibly an implosion waiting to happen on a new club”
PadSquad.619
What about this?
Padres Get: Chris Archer
Rays Get: Hunter Renfroe/Cal Quantril/ Josh Naylor/ Austin Allen and or Gettys???
bleacherbum
That’s the most I’d give up as a Padre fan.
all in ad
The Padres have to bundle some prospects or lose them in upcoming Rule5. That is the “why”. Now what do they get? Maybe Archer is the best they can get. I prefer deGrom. Why does everyone want to include Quantril? His family has ties to Padres….
justinept
The Rays aren’t trading Archer for a collection of 6-year minor league guys that are deemed unworthy of cracking another team’s 40 man.
tonysdog01
Let’s face it. Nothing is a “long shot” with the Yankees.
amjr
Makes most sense for the Padres because they aren’t contenders. They need young,controllable arms. Archer won’t be helpful to a contender. He gets hit often during the regular season Will get lit up during the postseason.
bhambrave
If the Padres are committed to prematurely trading for an ace middle-of-the-rotation pitcher, I imagine the Braves would be willing to talk Teheran. Give Alex a call.
bleacherbum
Lol no thanks
bravesfan
Braves should prob push this through. If I’m he braves though, try to get by offering a not quite mlb ready pitcher out of our top guys. They want mlb ready, but we need to hold on to those right now. Class A top prospects is what I’m thinking
James Solomon
How come Thor or Degrom aren’t being mentioned? As good as, if not better value than Archer. Sam Diego would be a good match. Urias, Mejia and a pitching prospect
darkstar61
They both have dramatically higher values than Archer. SD is trying to buy cheaper on Chris and fix him instead of buying high on a guy doing unbelievably
James Solomon
I would love if the Mets could trade with SD. Fills some holes very quickly
SixFlagsMagicPadres
The smarter plan would be to spend the prospects Thor, since Archer likely costs almost as much, if not the same as him. But no, they are pulling one of their old “cheapskate Padres” moves and overpaying for Archer in an attempt to try and “fix” him.
eduardoaraisa98
Idk why you would assume that Archer and Thor are worth almost the same when Syndergaard is younger, cheaper and waaay better than Archer
SixFlagsMagicPadres
His value might be down a little due to his injury history. But more likely he would cost the price of Archer plus maybe one more top 100 prospect or someone off of the major league roster.
bobtillman
There’s more disagreement about Chris Archer than there is about Donald Trump…..
He’s a reasonably good #3 starter on a (still) favorable contract. He’s better than Hammels or Happ. He should return a #1-10 prospect from a “meh” system, or a couple of guys in the #11=20 range from a team like the Padres or Yanks..
He’s also has never pitched in a meaningful game in his life. Lots of “Big fishes in a small pond” have melted under the bright lights of important games. That’s a factor to consider.
And he’s a bit weird. That’s “cute” on a team like the Rays, but those same behaviors will get him Ed Whitson-ed out of town in NY or Boston.
There’s a lot of Sonny Gray here…….
redsfan48
More club control than Hamels/Happ so that ups his value a ton
JKB 2
I am just so tired of hearing about Archer being traded for 3 years …
mrpadre19
As long as the Padres don’t trade Tatis,Gore,Baez,Paddack,A.Allen,it’s ll good.
RedRooster
Switch Allen out for Urias
SixFlagsMagicPadres
What about Logan Allen and Morejon?
Polish Hammer
I can’t for the life of me figure out the draw of a 3-5 pitcher with a 4.31 ERA and hasn’t been under 4 the past 3 seasons. So overrated it’s ridiculous.
JKB 2
Oh Polish Hammer so nice to find someone who gets it!! Archer is nothing special
simschifan
That’s what I’m saying
RedRooster
I can’t for the life of me figure out the draw of a commenter who mentions pitcher wins and losses.
louwhitakerisahofer
Translation… Francisco Mejia and Hunter Renfroe OR Franmil Reyes.
redsfan48
Exactly what I was thinking.
Connorsoxfan
I feel like Mejia and someone from the Padres glut of outfielders is what we’re looking at.
nstale
Garrett Stubbs, Yordan Alvarez, and Cionel Perez for Archer. Move McCullers to the pen. Repeat champs.
BrandonBrave91
Alex Jackson c, Dustin Peterson OF, plus Aaron Blair p gets it done for braves.
bravesfan
Well Blair is no longer a brave, soooooo
And jackson looks awful this year.
And Peterson is the most attractive in your offer and he’s mlb ready in my opinion but not like starter ready, more like platoon 4th outfielder
Soooo yea. Not the best offer I’ve seen lol
BrandonBrave91
Oh yea, duh I completely forgot about Blair. Replace Blair with Wisler or Teheran at this point.
nyy42
Chris Archer = Jeff Samardzija
JoeyPankake
I almost posted that exact same thing about a week ago.
hiflew
Yeah, and Jeff Samardzija was once worth Addison Russell and Billy McKinney in a deal. Archer will fetch the equivalent of that as well.
JKB 2
Jeff Samardzija was good when he was traded by the Cubs. Archer has not been very good for 3 years now
Begamin
Not if anyone learned anything about the Jeff Samardzija trade.
hiflew
Well no one likely did, so I assume you agree.
Begamin
You dont think people learned to not give up top flight prospects for SP? Gerrit Cole was picked up for Musgrove and Moran, a significantly less valuable package than Russel+McKinney. People learned, so I disagree.
I am not saying that Archer is the same as Samardzija though, but if GMs regard Archer as Samardzija all they would have to do is look how Samardzija is doing now to realize that “maybe lets not do that trade”
Nico480
Hedges/renfroe/Quantrill?
bleacherbum
I would be 100% okay with that. Problem is, can’t see the Padres trading Hedges. The organization loves that kid so much, I doubt they move him.
redsfan48
They have Mejia now. So they could either flip Mejia again instead, or keep Mejia and flip Hedges.
jamesonbishop
The Rays want Tyler O’Neill and Carson Kelly. Not a bad trade, but Archer won’t be the difference in 2019 whether the Cardinals make the playoffs.
stan lee the manly
I seriously doubt the Cards trade ONeil. It sounds like they are pretty excited about his power/speed/defense/ combo
pinkerton
Jeremy Guthrie for Archer.
Tom E. Snyder
Ritchie and Fisher from the Astros. Orbit says, “YES!”
Vanilla Good
Please make a new post about this 300 comments is a bit much. Anyway Brewers send Ray, Burnes, and Nottingham plus a lotto ticket or 2 to land Archer.
andrewgauldin
Too much. I wouldn’t do it if I was the crew.
MetsYankeesRedSox
The level of intensification is intensifying.
bravesfan
Braves have so many good too prospects I don’t want to drop any for archer. We have a lot of good prospects in our top 30. Wonder if they they would take a couple of those vs like 1 higher end.
Mikel Grady
Caratini .schwarber , Happ
Priggs89
I don’t see Theo doing that
JKB 2
So you have the Cubs trading 3 players off their major league roster. Two of whom are really starting, for Chris Archer who is not so great anyway and never has pitched in a big game?
simschifan
Good lord
redsfan48
Wonder if Meija + maybe Franmil Reyes gets the conversation started for the Padres? That gets the Rays their catcher and power hitting outfield prospect.
bleacherbum
Yeah, could be a combination of Mejia/Austin Allen when referring to the young catching prospect. Franmil Reyes or Jorge Ona could be the power outfielder discussed.
As a Padre fan I don’t see why the organization would even consider trading a guy who they just acquired who can provide instant offense from the catching position which is really rare in the game.
He would be off limits along with Tatis Jr, Urias and Gore if I were General Manager.
Priggs89
Maybe they don’t think he can be a serviceable catcher…?
bleacherbum
I guess but even at that, the bat plays at other positions. Pairing that elite prospect with two at the top of system currently in Tatis and Urias and you have a mini “big 3” that can grow together at the big league level and will be the ones most responsible to whether or not this team becomes a force to be reckon with in the near future like everyone predicts.
Priggs89
The bat could play at other positions, but it wouldn’t be elite at those positions. If he can be a serviceable catcher, he’s SIGNIFICANTLY more valuable. That bat at C = potentially elite. That bat in LF/RF/3B = above average-ish.
Polish Hammer
The bat would play at other positions, but Mejia won’t which is why Cleveland dealt him to begin with.
lowtalker1
Austin Allen renfroe una cal jr torrens Córdoba
bleacherbum
Agreed
redsfan48
I like Mejia a lot. But my philosophy would be that you would have basically traded Hand, Cimber and Reyes (or whoever instead of Reyes) for Chris Archer, which seems reasonable to me.
bleacherbum
True but if Mejia ends up being great, then that’s all of management for flipping him. I’d rather pay for Mejia’s future than for Archers past.
redsfan48
I just think it’s easier to trade away someone who’s only been in the organization a few days/weeks than a prospect/player you’ve had around for years
imindless
Padres would be dumb to trade mejia for a 4th starter. There hitting is worse than there pitching.
bleacherbum
Agreed, what’s not to like? A switch hitting Cather with tools like that? Yeah, it would be really hard to prey that away from me.
redsfan48
Archer’s probably a #2 or #3 on most teams.
juicemane
The Dodgers are trading anything with a heart beat in an all out attempt to return to the world series but I see them exiting early…now that is stupid and desperate. That is also nowhere close to the position the Padres are in now.
Meija sounds like a future hector olivera. Move him now please.
marinest21 2
A future hector Olivera? In what world did you get that comp?
bleacherbum
Yeah please elaborate
juicemane
The guy has attitude problems…where do you guys get info…every I read and the stats prove it, Meija has major questions of EFFORT AND ATTITUDE. Where do you guys get your comps? Oh that’s right you pull it out of your @$$. And I rather be considered a troll then be on a site talking about prospects that might be a bench piece for some teams. Get some baseball knowledge guys, this is pathetic.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
The guy is just a troll. Comparing Mejia to that piece of garbage is insulting.
jrwhite21
Austin hedges and hunter renfroe, to start
Priggs89
Sure, in 2014…
JKB 2
Austin Hedges is not what Tampa would be interested in
Priggs89
O’Neill + Knizner would be a good package for the Rays. I’m sure the Cardinals would try to swap Knizner for Kelly now that Kelly has lost most of his prospect shine though, so I don’t see that happening.
Mejia, Ornelas, plus makes sense for what they want as well. Or Naylor/Renfroe instead of Ornelas if they’d rather have that (MLB.com claims Naylor is an OF/1B).
Ruiz or Smith + DJ Peters could also work. I personally don’t think DJ Peters will turn into anything, but he certainly has some pop.
Lots of options.
scottstots
Corey Ray, Jacob Nottingham and Luis Ortiz
jobusrum9
I’d take Feliciano over Nottingham if I was the Rays, then either add Brown or swap 1 of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff for Ortiz since Feliciano is further away from MLB then Nottingham is.
If I’m the Brewers I’d definitely rather give up Nottingham over Feliciano. Since Nottingham and Henry have such a similar age and skill set I’d much rather keep the younger higher upside Feliciano.
A lot of people forget Feliciano held his own last season at low A as an 18 year old catcher for the entire season. Plus this year he only dropped in rankings bc he was injured and still was promoted to high A as a 19 year old. That is impressive for a catcher at that age regardless of results.
As the Brewers I’d also much rather give up Ortiz over Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes and Ray over Lutz/Gray.
AsNchill
Anything that costs us Sean Murphy is gonna be a no from me dawg.
AidanVega123
I like the Randy Jackson reference
CompanyAssassin
So funny, I know just of a team with a well regarded catching prospect AND power hitting outfielder
lowtalker1
Getty’s
dewssox79
brewers imo
redsfan48
The more I thought about it, the more I wonder if the Reds/Rays would be interested in a package centered around Tyler Stephenson and either Aristides Aquino or Jose Siri. That package fits what the Rays want (power OF and a catcher), and the Reds have other alternatives at those positions within the organization (specifically with Barnhart signed long term as catcher and Hendrik Clementina and Chris Okey in low minors).
c1234
O’Neil, Knisner, Hudson will do the job
Priggs89
Good luck
JFactor
I agree it would, but I would rather not. Not because Archer isn’t worth those guys, but because he doesn’t solve an area of need for us.
Melchez
I don’t see the Yankees giving up Sheffield for archer… no way.
justreading
yanks call up shefield after the bosox series
cc or severino miss a start for fatigue
cashman gets some corner outfield help
with good defensive skill and maybe
base stealing skills
casey21
Maybe Stephenson, Siri, and Shed Long for Archer
steelerbravenation
I love how all these genius arm chair gms who pull all these nonsense sabermetric stats out and yet don’t know what they are talking about
You all are the same ppl on here that were kickin Verlander because your numbers all told you he was washed up or how Gerri Cole wasn’t worth anything because of how far he has fallen according to these overrated stats
Now all you geniuses would love to have either on your team
Point of the matter is it’s still a team sport played by men with emotions that rely on teammates to play behind them and hit for them
Nobody in these forums can explain what a change of scenery could do for a guy or a different voice or set of eyes in coaching or catcher that may see something someone else doesn’t no stat in the world can say what being brought into a pennant race can do for a guy
The bottom line is what a team is willing to roll the dice and give up in order to get him and see how it plays out
For them
Keep throwing out nonsense stat categories very entertaining
Cam
Who said Gerrit Cole was worth nothing? And why wouldn’t they be anything other that idiots?
And Verlander was candid about his struggles – he was injured, too hittable and giving up homers. It’s not blasphemy to point out exactly what’s going on.
You talk as if people who try their best to understand underlying stats, are just waiting for a reason to hate on a player. When in reality, it seems as though you’re just waiting on a reason to hate those people.
Just because you’re bitter, doesn’t mean you should drag everyone else down with you.
steelerbravenation
Lol so I am bitter because I point out that none of those stats take into consideration any human element in what is the sport where it matters most
And no I am not waiting to hate on anybody here what I am waiting for is for someone to say yeah all those stats I spit out last year bout Verlander and how he was washed up yeah I was wrong or for one of those guys who was on Gerrit Cole and saying how he was not as good as he once was for them to say all those stats they spit out didn’t mean anything cause he is out performing that this year
Or how bout Donny Gray and how ppl on here were killing the A’s sayin they got robbed for the package they got but look where they are and look what Gray is doing
All I am saying is watch the games instead of the calculators bring some human elements into the conversation instead of turning everything into a number
oceansnake84
Reasons to trade for Archer:
1 His changeup has improved, granted he’s only pitched 96 innings this year and only throws that pitch 11% of the time.
Reasons to not trade for Archer:
1. There’s no way not to overpay.
2. His fastball has never been good -.27 wFA/C career.
3. His slider has actually been only average this year -.01. wSL/C.
He needs to throw more changeups and the slider needs to get back to the old form to at least break even in a trade, much less return value imo. -ev
andre b.
If the Rays don’t get at bare minimum 1 pitcher from this so help me
callmenate
This has st.louis written all over it.
Matt Tobin
Will Smith and DJ Peters sounds like package the Ray’s want.
Smith is good defensively as a catcher and has been known to have positional flexibility(which makes the Ray’s hard)
DJ Peters is a power hitting corner outfield with questionable defense.
If the Padres want him, the package starts with Franchy, no ifs, ands or buts. Franchy plus Cal Quantrill
bleacherbum
Franchy is hurt and hasn’t even come close to showing that he can put it all together. Why would Tampa want him with his value so low? Doubt he is being considered.
AJPGotThat2020Vision
Yeah I’d do Franchy+Quantrill in a heartbeat but there’s no way that would land Archer. Franchy has a freakish toolset but only a little bit of it consistently plays in-game. Fun player but not an impact guy
bobtillman
The Rays have a good system (from #4 to #6, depending on who you believe), but most of the talent is concentrated at the A level or below. But even doing a little projection, they’re in desperate need of (a) pitching (b) catching and (c) power, from anywhere. The returns also need to be close to MLB ready; there’s only one player (Lowe) at the AAA level who figures to impact the roster at all next year.
As for all those proposals, some are mighty thin, others gross overpays. (Hey Brewer fans, Burns isn’t going anywhere). They’ve made some poor moves lately, and that track record has to be taken into account. And they may even want to “piggy-back” one of their higher priced guys (Ramos, Hechiaverra, Gomez, etc.), which is pretty much how Seattle got Colome/ Span for next to nothing.
My guess? The Brewers, with Ortiz OR Ercerg being the centerpiece.
dodgers2017
done…will smith, Verdugo, Forsythe, Alvarez and lower level prospects for Archer and stanek
AJPGotThat2020Vision
If I’m TB I’m all over that. I’ll bet Friedman likes Archer enough to do that too
Danw1444
Why would a team put out so much resources to pick up Archer when Billy Butler can be acquired for a pro-rated league minimum? He is hitting bombs in the Idaho Falls Park and Rec adult softball league.
bravesfan
Braves could try Peterson and Jackson in a deal, but would have to throw in one of our higher end pitching prospects
Z-A 2
So you trade for him banking on his era+ and fip being better than his actual numbers? Hes more like a 3 on most squads.
therealryan
I think all the talk of Chris Archer being some back end SP is a little premature. He had a horrendous first couple of weeks of the season, but has been pitching must better since. In his first 4 starts he only pitched 6 innings once and gave up 3 ER or less once. In his 13 starts since he has gone at least 6 IP 9 times and 3 ER or less 11 times. Three of the times he pitched less than 6 IP were the start he pulled his groin and his first 2 starts back from the DL which were basically rehab starts where the Rays kept his pitch count down. Look at the numbers below.
Archer’s first 4 starts of 2018: ERA-7.84, FIP-4.81, xFIP-4.04
Archer’s last 13 starts: ERA-3.35, FIP-3.30, xFIP-3.51
baseballpun
Cards get Archer for O’Neill, Kelly and a AA pitcher. They trade C-Mart to Tanks for Frazier and Sheffield (+?). Are they better off?
baseballpun
Yanks.*
c1234
Heck no. Martinez is under control until 2021. Not enough for Martinez, I also don’t think Frazier is even good. He’s overrated. But Cards would need way more than Sheffield and Frazier. Doesn’t make sense to trade for an ace pitcher than trade your own ace pitcher. Makes zero sense.
cspaced25 2
I wouldn’t trade Frazier or Sheffield for him never mind both.
kevins-7
So the Rays want a young catcher and a power hitting outfield prospect per Mike Topkin. From the Pirates, I offer: Elias Diaz (could be starter if not blocked by Cervelli), & Jordan Luplow. I also add Tyler Glasnow, who still has future ace potential. I’m assuming at least 1 more ready-player or top-10 prospect…
Starting point??
c1234
Oh. Heck no not even close