If you haven’t been reading MLBTR for the last few days, let me sum things up: #BrittonWatch is the new #MannyWatch. Want more details on the Orioles’ efforts to trade Zach Britton? Here are your links: today; yesterday; weekend.
If you’ve already read all of that, or don’t want to spend an hour of your time doing so now, the bottom line is that there are loads of plausible suitors. Varying reports suggest one or another team has been more or less aggressive to this point with offers. On the whole, though, there’s no clear indication that a certain club is closing in on an acquisition.
Rather, it seems the Orioles are waiting for someone to come forward with a compelling offer. The Baltimore organization likely feels rather optimistic about the bidding situation. There a broad slate of interest, with nearly every plausible contender mentioned of late as a potential landing spot. Notably, in some cases, getting Britton would also mean keeping him from another a rival.
Despite Britton’s injury history and lack of a recent track record, moreover, his high-powered recent showing has also perhaps separated him by a significant margin from the remainder of the lefty relief market. Assuming the Pirates don’t move Felipe Vazquez, the rest of the possibilities look decidedly less appealing than Britton (at least, a healthy and performing version of him). Zach Duke is probably the next-best rental southpaw, followed by pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jerry Blevins, and Luis Avilan.
So, #BrittonWatch it is, and while he’s the topic of the day, we might as well engage it. We could debate whether Britton is really as valuable a target as the rumors would suggest, but that’ll ultimately come down to individual teams’ scouting assessments. Perhaps we could also take odds and maintain a leaderboard for pursuers, but just because this is happening in Baltimore doesn’t mean it should be treated like the Preakness. Instead, I thought it’d be worthwhile to review briefly each contender’s case for pursuing Britton before polling MLBTR’s readers as to where they think he will end up.
- Astros: They don’t really need Britton, but then they don’t really need much of anything. Tony Sipp has been quite good, and youngster Cionel Perez is another big arm from the left side, but it doesn’t hurt to bring in another piece to match up with. And there’s broader uncertainty at the back of the ’Stros pen following the demotion of Ken Giles, so Britton’s experience in the ninth could also be a factor. (H/t to MLBTR commenter Mr. MacPhisto for pointing out that I had missed this aspect of the Astros situation.) Perhaps Houston won’t chase the market, but if the organization decides Britton is its top target, then why not?
- Braves: There’s cause to add elsewhere, to be sure, but the back of the bullpen is arguably the area that the Atlanta organization is most in need. With Arodys Vizcaino out for a while longer, the team can’t just sit back and hope he returns. Especially if it turns out to be too costly to get a quality rotation upgrade, the Braves could really stand to add here. Then again, the club has other left-handed options (including top late-inning arm A.J. Minter), so perhaps if it’s going to cough up precious prospects, it would be better served going after a righty (especially one with future control).
- Brewers: It’s tough to see this match representing a true priority given the club’s rotation concerns. Plus, Josh Hader is something like a multi-inning version of peak Britton, while Dan Jennings has been a useful match-up option. Then again, perhaps the Milwaukee organization sees some potential for deepening its relief mix in a manner that will take pressure off of the starting staff.
- Cubs: The Brew Crew’s chief immediate rival faces a generally similar situation. In this case, though, getting better from the left side in the pen is of much greater concern. Both Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing have handed out walks like candy, and though Randy Rosario owns a 2.03 ERA, he has also managed just 17 strikeouts against 14 walks in his 31 frames.
- Diamondbacks: Left-handed relief help isn’t an obvious need. Andrew Chafin has been quite good and T.J. McFarland is getting grounders like he’s Britton while cutting down opposing lefties at will (though he’s also averaging just 4.7 K/9). That said, if the team simply wants to get another quality arm into its relief unit, it could see an opportunity to replace Jorge De La Rosa.
- Dodgers: Luxury tax considerations make this a tough fit, perhaps, and there may not be a ton of urgency with Tony Cingrani set to return and a trio of southpaws already on the active roster. That said, these teams have already proven they can line up on a major deal this summer and the Dodgers may feel the pen is the best remaining area to improve.
- Giants: The CBA tax factors even larger here, but the San Francisco organization has shown itself willing to give up some young talent to shed salary, so there’s no reason it wouldn’t at least consider upping its offer if the O’s are willing to keep some of Britton’s hefty obligation. Of course, there are plenty of southpaw options already on hand for the Giants, and it seems they are in need of more than a finishing piece if they are to stay in the hunt down the stretch.
- Phillies: Money isn’t a problem for the Phils. Improving the late-inning mix, especially from the left side, definitely looks like a need. Though Austin Davis has opened some eyes with a strong debut thus far, he’s still green. Lefty specialist Adam Morgan has been solid, but hardly dominant, against opposing southpaws and has been knocked around by righties.
- Red Sox: The Boston roster is flat-out dominating right now, and certainly doesn’t need a closer. But there’s said to be an interest in adding a significant arm to the back of the pen and it stands to reason that the club will target a southpaw. Vazquez might be a dream get for the Sox, as he’d represent a future closing option when Craig Kimbrel leaves, but otherwise it’s not hard to imagine the club focusing on Britton. (The Orioles, of course, would likely want to leave talks with retribution for having sent Eduardo Rodriguez to the Sox for Andrew Miller years back.)
- Rockies: While the Rockies already invested quite a lot of their resources into the bullpen, the results haven’t been there, especially from the lefties. Jake McGee and Chris Rusin have struggled; Mike Dunn is on the shelf after a very rough start. It’d hurt to pour yet more into the relief unit, but there’s an argument that it’s a primary need for this ballclub.
- Yankees: The rotation is clearly the area to target for the Yanks, who now have a big gap to make up in the division. But the acquisitions likely won’t stop there. Chasen Shreve has been bombed by lefties thus far (.255/.368/.574), and top southpaw Aroldis Chapman functions as a closer rather than a setup man, so it’s sensible to think the New York organization will seek an upgrade. Funds will be a consideration, at least, given the club’s other needs and the luxury tax line.
So, which team do you think is most likely to land Britton? (Link for app users.)
xabial
If betting man? Astros. They have the most chips at the table.
But my heart says Yankees, to replace Shreve
MeowMeow
Astros make the most sense, but I think the Phillies are going to get aggressive over the next week.
Mattimeo09
No offense but you also predicted O’s wouldn’t move Manny
xabial
None taken. Guess that makes all my predictions invalid
BTW, I also predicted he would bring a “Darvish” package IF traded. (One top 100 prospect + pieces)
slider32
I think it’s the Yanks or Cubs.
bababooeytoyall
Why would the Yankees want him ? He’s lost velocity on his fastball , is very hittable and is hurt all the time. The Yankees need starters. It’s getting late really early.
eileenyanks
Anyone but the Yankees!
eileenyanks
Axb. I hear ya!!
Bald Vinny
If Boston gets him, they might hit 120 wins.
Bocephus
you must be a Hockey fan.
jdgoat
No hockey teams win 120
2weeks
Rangers will get him
sandy kazmir
I’m curious why so much time has been spent on this very good site talking about Zach Britton? He hasn’t been a good pitcher in over two years. There are better alternatives as LHRP like Jake Diekman or Zach Duke who have not received a single sniff of coverage. Does it have anything to do with Boras Corp. working on behalf of Britton? It’s astounding how many articles have been written about a bad pitcher during a time of year when there is so much good stuff to read otherwise.
Jeff Todd
It’s stated in the article, more or less: there’s a lot of discussion of him in the media. Whether that has been pushed by the Orioles, I don’t know, but the suggestion is that he’s being auctioned off as we speak. So, we’re covering it. There are news items connecting him to every one of the teams I listed. Can’t say anything remotely like that w/r/t any other player.
We don’t play favorites with agents.
EDIT TO ADD:
Let me add … please don’t take that as me being cranky. Your question is fair and I’m just responding.
But w/r/t Britton’s reps, to be clear: I have not had any contact with them or been influenced in any way. Just trying to write on topics of immediate interest. (My bet: deal gets done on ZB today or tomorrow. Time to discuss it is now.)
Regarding the other guys you mention, it seems they are simply viewed by interested teams as being in a different league than Britton, who is supposedly getting love from scouts and is definitely showing strides in publicly available sources of information (not just results, but velo, etc).
When I did the recent top 75 ranking, I had to go out and find the other dudes and give them a proper place. That wasn’t based on chatter, as there basically isn’t any (except a few notes here and there on Diekman). I’ve tried to mention them wherever possible.
sandy kazmir
The entire thing seems fairly transparent. I do like your phrasing throughout so please don’t take me as blowing off steam on this specific article, but rather the entire discussion that has occurred so far. I think we’re of the same mind that if there was more to discuss then it wouldn’t receive such prominence.
Bruin1012
Just a guess here but Zack Britton was elite when healthy. He wasn’t healthy last year and seems to just know be getting back to being Zack Britton. I think teams will gamble on him being healthy because there is no comparison between the guys you mentioned above and a healthy Zack Britton. He seems to be back to that 97 mph sinking fastball that not only gets swings and misses but also puts up almost a comical ground ball rate. I’m sure Boras is pushing his guy but the fact is Zack Britton will be the most effective reliever traded if healthy. There in lies the gamble he looks pretty healthy to me and getting better and better every outing.
sandy kazmir
Caveat emptor, my good sir. I don’t see it. I see a guy that is coming off a devastating achilles injury that ruins most careers regardless of the profession. Him maxing out over a couple appearances doesn’t offset the nearly 20% walk rate this year that is only slightly lower than his K%. He’s getting hit hard even if a lot of that hasn’t shown up in the boxscore. He’s not even monstering lefties so far this year. Now, granted, I’m using a sample that includes him working back from the injury. If, as you say, that performance is not indicative of what is to come, that, in fact, he’s going to eventually get back to looking like one of the most dominant guys in the league, then I can see where folks are coming from. I just don’t see that as realistic in any way and sure wouldn’t want to part with a good prospect in order to find out. I’ll take Zach Duke or Jake Diekman if it’s at a lower cost. Since I believe in showing your work, here is mine: pbs.twimg.com/media/Di4tEx7XcAA4yWm.jpg:large
FOmeOLS
I tend to agree with you. As I mentioned in. Y
Own comment, why overpay for a wild card? Lots of not bad guys who can do pretty well for a lot lot less, and probably for a lot longer as well.
Bruin1012
Sandy I’m just looking at a Red Sox fans point of view. I saw the 97 mph sinking fastball and I’m willing to take a chance on him. I just feel more comfortable with Britton then Duke or especially Diekman. Diekman has always had control issues I will take my chances with what can be a real difference maker. Unfortunately I’m guessing most GM’s are seeing the sinking fastball return and will beat the Red Sox offer. I would also be good with Zack Duke as a Sox fan. I just feel that the ground ball percentage is already back to elite and am willing to take a chance on him getting his control back as time goes on and he gets more appearances.
BlueSkyLA
Nothing wrong with the points you’ve made, but that said, the interest in the likes of Diekman and Duke isn’t minimal for no reason Deikman is quite mediocre. Duke is a bounce back candidate but teams in a pennant race aren’t usually looking for that.
sandy kazmir
Is Zach Britton a bounceback candidate? Are teams looking for that? I’ve got both of those guys pitching pretty well on teams that are going to lose their services after the year. Where is the media-driven push that creates a bidding war out of thin air for those guys.
If teams aren’t having the exact same conversations with those teams about those players then they’re simply not doing their job as a General Manager. I don’t believe that to be the case. If I’m a Twins or Rangers fan I’d sure love to see my guys pushed as hard as I’ve seen from the Jon Heymans, Jerry Crasnicks, and even beloved Ken Rosenthals of the world.
If it defies logic that teams haven’t even talked to the Twins and Rangers then where is the coverage with this level of intensity? I know Mr. Boras is the absolute best in the business, but other folks gotta eat, too. Especially when reporting those stories cuts directly into the heart of the market for the pitcher that rides under his wing.
No disrespect to MLBTR, nor especially Jeff Todd who has been a straight shooter in every interaction I’ve had, they need stuff like this, but even more they could use other voices telling their story. Maybe this is the result of hierarchal structures that concentrate access in the hands of the few. I have no idea, but it sure does seem like the same people are running with the same stuff with little to report. Perhaps that’s fatigue on my part from being invested too heavily or too soon.
TLDR; Gimme the Diekman & Duke pimps.
BlueSkyLA
Britton is somewhat of a bounce back candidate, and the fact that he’s recovering from an injury certainly seems to be in play as a consideration in his value. OTOH he also has a history of producing at a high level in a closing role, so this track record is what gets the attention of teams looking for back end relievers. A team going for the belt and suspenders will see him as a potentially big add that could pay off, just as the Cubs did two years ago with Chapman. Neither of the other two you mention have that background or the potential to be major factors in the postseason. Bit players, at best.
Overall you seem to be confusing the reporter with the reported. The media doesn’t create the team interest as you seem to be suggesting. Reporters can only report what they hear. The fact that they aren’t hearing anything about either Diekman or Duke doesn’t surprise me. A trade involving either one would probably elicit an appropriate yawn.
stymeedone
Chapman was not coming off an injury when the Cubs acquired him. While ZB is throwing hard now, the risk of him doing something different due to the Achilles injury, that may affect his arm, is still a possibility. Having him on the shelf for any part of the rental could be a job changer for the GM that overlays in prospects. Just being a rental will keep the price down. The risk of injury will balance the scarcity of a power lefty.
BlueSkyLA
I realize Chapman wasn’t coming off an injury, but that wasn’t my point. My point is the Cubs were adding an established closer to an already pretty good relief corp with an eye towards the demands the postseason places on high end relievers. Britton is the only reliever available with anywhere close to similar credentials, at least now that Hand and Familia have been dealt. That’s his appeal over the other names mentioned.
eileenyanks
Ax, lolol, no I am a righty!!
Pax vobiscum
Seranthony can’t do it alone.
aj_54
SirAnthony
Cat Mando
Full Name: Seranthony Ambioris Dominguez
baseball-reference.com/players/d/dominse01.shtml
wiggysf
Lol the truth comes out
dust44
Going to the Yankees. The Yanks can offer as high as Thairo Estrada and not really b hurt by it. Since he’s blocked by DiDi, Gleybar, Wade, Andujar, Drury, Torreyes.
xabial
Blocked by Torrreyes? Lol
Thairo Estrada is a rich man’s Ronald Torreyes. Torreyes would first get traded for Britton than Estrada.
Adam6710
Why do people keep spelling and pronouncing it “Gley-BAR.” He’s been so overly discussed I’d think everyone would know the proper spelling/pronunciation of his name by name.
As for Estrada, I agree he’s sort of blocked, and the Yankees will soon have to make some longer term decisions on their bullpen since Betances and Robertson will soon be hitting FA. But is Zach Britton the answer? I don’t know.
thegreatcerealfamine
Probably for the same reason they keep spelling deGrom as Degrom.
xabial
Does “DeGrom” work? Have seen some legitimate SNY articles, spell name that way. Was only for the first word of the article tho, then they went back to “deGrom” rest article.
swinging wood
It’s probably their software capitalizing the first character.
lowtalker1
I’m going to say the Os
norcalblue
Astros. They have the combined greatest need and capacity to satisfy O’s.
TeddyBallagme
Any trade poll must include Dipoto
pt24601
Why would BAL have an axe to grind with BOS about the ERod/Miller swap? If ever there was a trade that was equally good for both teams, that was it. Not the Red Sox fault that the Orioles trip to the playoffs ended quickly.
tonypro7
They went to the ALCS. Wouldn’t “quickly” be a first round exit?
pt24601
My (increasingly unreliable) memory was that they did lose in the first round. Thank you for the correction.
Jeff Todd
Not saying it in any kind of serious manner or hinting at bad blood. Just was a way to hint at the division rivalry price bump concept (not clear if it applies here) and note the old trade, as this one would be pretty similar but in the opposite direction.
FOmeOLS
The article
Didn’t mention the strength of the contending teams’ farm, nor whether a given team has a realistic shot at winning the division. Arizona is almost certainly not going to take the division, and why pay so much for a shot at a single game?
The Braves or Phillies, though, would have a much better shot at the whole division and would also be keeping Britton away from immediate rivals. The Braves have more need, the Phillies have a lot of former Orioles in the front office, but the Braves are maybe the stronger team at the moment so I think they’d be willing to do most, again depending on strength of farm. More likely to deal from a plethora than a paucity of prospects to win now.
Braves! They get Britton and a chance to say “Nyah Nyah” to the other guys…and who doesn’t want that?
Jeff Todd
Every one of these teams has enough prospects to get a deal done, though surely upper level depth, etc, will influence willingness to do so. It’s impossible to really assess all of that for this kind of post, no? I said up front I was looking at MLB roster need primarily.
Re the D-Backs, I’m sure they aren’t just punting the possibility of winning the division.
stubby66
Would rather have Zack Duke over Britton because we probably could resign him.
ASapsFables
I believe that the Astro’s assessment of a need for Zach Britton is incomplete. Sure, they have a couple of nice southpaws in their bullpen already but Britton could potentially become their closer or at least provide some experienced insurance in that role down the stretch and into the postseason.
Current closer Hector Rondon is no sure thing (just ask his former employer in Chicago) while former finisher Ken Giles was demoted to AAA earlier this month in order to get his mojo back. Giles was actually fine closing games in Houston this season (12 for 12) but was awful in his other appearances. Even if Giles finds his groove in Albuquerque he’s no sure thing in the playoffs as his 2017 postseason would suggest.
A similar argument could be made in the case of the Cubs who currently have closer Brandon Morrow on the disabled list for the third time this season. Additionally, the Cubs have had some problems with their veteran southpaws this season.
Jeff Todd
That’s a good point, thanks. I’ll tweak it.
ASapsFables
You’re welcome, Jeff. Glad to be of some assistance to my favorite baseball site!
Tom E. Snyder
The Astros AAA affiliate (through this season) is Fresno, not Albuquerque.
ASapsFables
Thanks for correcting that Tom. I was just reading a recent story on Ken Giles’ status in AAA when his Fresno club was playing in Albuquerque. He was interviewed by the local paper there and offered many quotes about his situation with the Astros this season. It’s a good read for those interested (sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-astros-ken-giles-…) and also points out that Giles has only been used in non-save situations (through July 21st) for Fresno. That bit of news alone might provide an interesting revelation into Giles’ future status with Houston and could add some fuel to their interest in Zach Britton.
Earle Combs
The Red Sox have a poor farm system and nothing with which to trade.
stymeedone
Every team has enough to trade for a rental. It’s not what, or how much a team has, it’s the willingness to pull the trigger. Every team has the players to beat what LAD sent for MM. They just chose not to.
rathman53
Athletics
KranzwithaK
Although I think it will be the stros, I can’t believe the Phillies aren’t going harder after him. They need the late inning lefty help.
Todd Penrod
the stros predicament is interesting. the bullpen has holes in the regular season but come post season when mccullers and morton join the pen, it goes from a relative weakness to a strength (those two plus Peacock and McHugh). and all the talk of them not having a closer, after seeing Morton at the end of the WS shut the Dodgers down, I’m pretty sure A.J. knows who his closer will be assuming Verlander, Keuchel and Cole remain healthy and effective and take the post season starter spots.
jbigz12
Fairly confident they’ll need 4 starters to get through the playoffs. Not ideal to take a key starter out of the rotation.
doxiedevil
The Braves are eyeing 2020 or 2021……when all their future Cy Young winners are in the majors.
Knowthemarket
This market is driving me crazy. The demand for relief pitching is huge so pitchers that would normally be low cost are seeing their value explode. I think I would rather the Braves use internal options if prices don’t go down.
If they don’t go down I say let Minter have the closing job and give some of our pitching prospects a taste of the majors. Minters FIP is 2.49 with a little better than a strike out an inning. I say that’s a great foundation for on the job training.
stymeedone
What relievers have gone for large returns? Herrera and Familia went rather cheaply.
tmcca
I heard the Sox offered Chavis, Houck, Chapman for Britton/Schoop that’s hard to beat. If that is true the Red Sox not only getting Britton but Schoop as well.
tmcca
Also said he won’t be dealt at least until after they play the Sox.
dwilson10
If there is any truth to that, the O’s will not accept that offer. Other teams would be able to do much better. The O’s top prospect is a third baseman in AA, so why would they accept a deal that is headlined by a third baseman in AA?
slider32
I don’t think the Sox have the prospects to get Britton.
tmcca
Yes they do.
Philliesfan4life
For me its between the phillies or astros for him
ThatBallwasBryzzoed
Yankees are a solid choice. Guaranteed he goes there for 3 prospects