With all the expansion talk floating around MLB these days, Jayson Stark of The Athletic explores what the league might look like with 32 teams instead of 30. Though his suggestion that the postseason has the potential to expand to 16 teams seems comical, Stark does provide some useful insight into which cities could get new teams. Additionally, his dive into how divisions could realign, how the playoff format could change, and why MLB might shorten the schedule to 154 games in the process all spark some opportunity for some interesting debate. Stark’s article ends with a bold assertion that all of this is a matter of when, not if.
A couple of other interesting items…
- MLB owners have engaged in interesting discussions on gambling in the wake of the Supreme Court’s recent reversal of the federal ban on sports betting (as David Waldstein of the New York Times writes). Commissioner Rob Manfred has reportedly said that it’s vital steps be taken in order to ensure the integrity of the game, but also indicated that baseball would like a share of the profits from betting on the sport. With states now allowed to make their own decisions in regard to sports gambling, it’s interesting to note that the potential expansion for MLB could provide some incentive expansion-hopeful states to be loose with betting regulations.
- One of baseball’s most intangible qualities may be a little more tangible than we think, according to Ben Rowen of The Atlantic. A number of research groups are embarking upon a mission to quantify team chemistry, once deemed the Holy Grail of performance analytics by Harvard Business Review. Some methods described involve collection of biometrics, advanced mathematics, and even “anthropological forrays into the clubhouse.” One particularly interesting strategy seems to be looking for places in which advanced performance metrics and player intangibles are “at odds”. The whole piece is well worth a read; it doesn’t provide much in the way of firm evidence but it certainly presents some interesting opportunities for research and offers some optimism that team chemistry could potentially be quantified and used to bring about a competitive advantage.
User 4245925809
Yeah.. Expand.. League, or some teams are already playing giveaway/life support to about a third of the teams as it is. Why not just move several to the places the league “thinks” baseball might thrive instead of having more dead markets, like Tampa, Oakland to name just 2.
sascoach2003
John Silver, you’re like me, an “older” baseball fan, remembering the game pre-DH, pre-specialization, etc. Do you think we’ll ever see teams just saying: “no starters, closers,” etc, but just have 12-13 “pitchers” working in clusters of 3. These 3 “pitchers” come in and fire away for a minimum of 3 innings, say. Owners wouldn’t have to pay “starter” or “closer ” prices? Or, DH in National League parks? I agree there’s diluted pitching, but would argue there’s diluted hitting, too. With the evolution of statistics, baseball has created it’s own “Frankenstein Monster”
User 4245925809
Who really thought the idea of using relievers/swingmen like Tampa has used all season for 1 slot in the rotation all year would have worked out so far this season to begin with. It’s pretty much the same principle and boils down to whatever team using it having enough quality arms capable of going those 3 innings for whichever rotation slot u mention. Problem is? have to factor in how often 1 has to be replaced from ineffectiveness.
Don’t see it myself being used (relievers/swingmen) games more than 1 rotation slot for simple reason of cannot carry the required amount of pitchers to cover it. Hardly none go 7 innings anymore on a regular basis, not like in old days as another “old timer” u would remember finishing what was started was considered normal would remember.
NL? Has to carry a PH for that super efficient 🙁 bat of the pitcher in the game, so that’s 1 slot and even AL will have bare minimum 4 man bench.
Finally and not a hard critique, but how many relievers go more than an inning u know? Some do, but many are specialists and 2 innings is really pushing it. Most teams will have 1.. “maybe” 2 swingmen capable of going over 2 innings as relievers. it would require rethinking of how pen’s are made up, tho who knows?
45 years ago who would have thought the game would be like this????
sascoach2003
It’s changed, for sure.
Carrington Spensor
I got MLB Ticket after not following baseball for 2 years. The mediocrity is unbelievable. The games go on and on with balls seldom being put in play. It’s mid-June with temperatures and humidity peaking, yet BA’s are plummeting when they should be going up (and don’t OBP me – fans don’t tune-in or show up to watch a batter work a walk).
Just looked at the Indians-Twins box score. The top 3 hitters in their line-ups are decent. The other 6 guys are shades of garbage – the trick the Indians use is to platoon them with others coming up and down from the minors.
Have been watching MLB for a good part of 62 years. I have never seen it this bad. Even the top teams have huge holes. It’s all about finding some hot hands to carry the team for a spell.
Expansion? This is a league that badly needs to contract 6-10 teams. Not enough decent players to go around. At least 40% belong in AAA.
User 4245925809
Don’t say the word contract on this board or people that don’t remember how competitive it was with even 24 teams will rip you apart.
Watered down talent. non family owned teams.. The absolute worst, which generally gets me.. Steinbrenner purchasing the NYY and turning them into some kind of freak show with the seemingly daily hiring/firing of that drunkard billy martin and his near daily outbursts of nonsense about something that took away from the sport began the downfall.
Commissioners? After the iron fisted Bowie Kuhn left they were all spineless tools of the owners afraid to make any decisions for the good of the game and it’s STILL that way
Connorsoxfan
There isn’t enough quality pitching for 30 teams, never mind 32.
hawkny11
I would include Baltimore and Miami too. Along with these, I would suggest expansion to 32 teams, (4 regional divisions of 8) by designating the cities of Vancouver and Oklahoma City for expansion teams. As for Tampa I predict the team will move to Montreal, CA. Likewise, Oakland will move to Las Vegas, Miami to Charlotte, and, to add international flavor, Baltimore to Mexico City. Once completed, the 4 divisions, would become as follows:
East West North South
Boston Colorado Cincinnati Atlanta
Detroit LA Angels Cleveland Arizona
Montreal LA Dodgers Chicago Cubs Charlotte
New York Yankees Las Vegas Chicago White Sox Houston
New York Mets San Diego Kansas City Texas
Philadelphia Seattle Milwaukee Mexico City
Pittsburgh San Francisco Minnesota Washington
Toronto Vancouver St. Louis Oklahoma City
bradthebluefish
What about the Rays going to New Orleans?
sascoach2003
The Marlins already play there LOL
its_happening
So the Rays go from one city drawing little to another city drawing even less? Montreal should never have a professional baseball team in their city ever again. Tampa has never drawn less than a million. Montreal did, MANY times.
Caseys.Partner
Expansion will definitely kill MLB.
The corporate media playing their role as spokesman for the 30 billionaires have ignored the rage against the Marlins when they have not actively been propagating propaganda in support of Jeter’s criminal acts.
Remember this: All the big markets are taken. Every expansion team will be in a small market. Every expansion team is another bellyaching owner and another bellyaching fan base screaming for a “cap” while the bloodsucking owner drains every last drop of blood from the neck of five year olds eating cotton candy in the stands.
C O N T R A C T I O N makes far more sense than expansion.
bradthebluefish
Sadly, contraction makes more sense. Talent in the MLB is too thin.
sascoach2003
I’m afraid I’ll have to agree with you, too.
stormie
I don’t think talent is too thin, the problem is too many teams tanking now and not wanting to sign veterans to raise their talent floor, so you get this imbalance where the good teams have a majority of the good players, and the awful teams are running out prospects and AAAA players every game.
GenoSeligPrieb
Let me guess! You’re a fan of a “Favored Four” franchise. Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers. A lack of a salary cap gives your team a built-in unfair advantage, so the other 26 owners are “belly-achers.” I wonder how well these “genius” GMs would operate if they were constrained by limits on what they could spend…
User 4245925809
Here’s 1 then… make ithe salary cap hard for a 5y period AND stop every last bit of the giveaways to the bottom feeders as well and see how well these teams like it ok? No money coming in from the teams that actually earn it, No extra compensation draft picks and none of that extra IFA slot money either.
Bocephus
There’s not enough interest in all 30 current teams as it is to even think about expanding the sport to 32 teams. There’s teams such as Oakland, Tampa, and Miami that are on life support as it is, so why add when you can relocate these teams. The subject of legalized gambling and what Manfred said about hopes for MLB to share in the revenue makes Vegas having a team more, and more realistic. Then there’s that whole small market crying from teams to deal with like the Royals, Reds, and Pirates to name a few. Set a cap where everyone is on an equal ground for spending no matter the market size.
jamesa-2
There is plenty of interest to support 32 teams. There just isn’t the will to make it happen by MLB. They are already having enough stadium issues and problems with the MLBPA.
Until Tampa gets out of their lease and Oakland decides what it is going to do since they are not allowed to build in San Jose (despite the city wanting them, baseball will probably hold off on expansion. THose two teams need to get re-settled first.
Bocephus
“There is plenty of interest to support 32 teams” where in the world do you get that? Is it the falling ratings, lack of interest from the young demographic, falling attendance for 60% if the teams, lack of African American representation in the game, tanking, or maybe it’s just how the majority of the country feeling it’s slow and antiquated. I sure would love to know.
davidcoonce74
MLB AM is raking in money hand over fist; enough to pay each team 50 million dollars this offseason. “Ratings” are falling for all sports because way fewer people watch games on TV because there are literally dozens of better ways to watch them. That’s true of every major sport.
Bocephus
“Ratings are falling for all sports” that’s just not even close to being true. The NBA ratings have increased each year for the last five, and Soccer’s ratings have exploded in the NW and SW over the last ten. The NBA is now the second most popular sport in the country..example major media markets give more coverage to the LeBron and Kawhi moves then MLB news. That is a one time payment for the sale of MLB Advanced Media, so how would that help expansion. MLB has even more problems then I listed such as the average age of it’s fans “55”, and the lack of interest from the other then white population.
ABCD
Good point about settling TB and Oakland before expansion. I think the teams do prefer to build new stadiums in their territories.
gofish 2
I’m all for moving some teams to locations where they would get more interest. I do not think expansion is the answer.
Tampa Bay –> Montreal
Oakland –> Vegas
Manfred should work on letting teams trade their draft picks. It’s one reason so many people are interested in the NFL and NBA drafts.
I don’t see them lowering the number of games to 154 because it would mess with the record books. They would need a new set of books for “154-game season records.”
thegreatcerealfamine
They need a new set of books for the steroid era records as it is. Montreal couldn’t support a team, but Vegas surely can and other locations such as Raleigh or San Antonio may.
bradthebluefish
Could New Orleans support a team? They’ve supported New Orleans Saints well.
sascoach2003
As somebody in La, the answer is “no”. There’s no place to play baseball in New Orleans proper, and the AAA team plays in the suburbs and draws okay, until football season starts. The heat and humidity are unbearable, too. That’s another consideration.
ABCD
81 games in MLB needs a lot of support compared to 10 for NFL.
hiflew
8 in the NFL.
ABCD
They usually make you pay an extra 2 for preseason.
ABCD
+2 counting preseason.
ABCD
Yes, a metro area should at least be quickly closing in on 2.5 million to support an expansion team. Vegas, San Antonio can do that. Portland and Austin are other possibilities. As for NC, Charlotte has twice the population than Raleigh.
jamesa-2
An even bigger reason that the NBA and NFL drafts are followed more closely is that the players drafted in those events, especially in the early rounds, are expected to be impact providers the very next season. THat just isn’t the case in baseball.. With very few exceptions, teams are looking to draft talent that will not play in the majors for three seasons.
jamesa-2
They already have multiple season lengths in the books. That’s the reason there was an asterisk next to Roger Marris’ HR record for so many years.
Bartis
I’d guess 2 of the following locations if MLB were to expand:
Nashville, Las Vegas, Montreal, or Charlotte.
em650r
Brewers go back to AL
Houston goes back to NL
Take the two Florida teams out make Charlotte and Nashville two teams.
Move Oakland to Portland
nsmith12641
I really hope the rule doesn’t change to 154 games, it’ll be much harder for some records to be broken, if it’s not hard enough now. Specifically single season records but the shortage in games could add up over a long career, where a player could miss some extra AB’s or starts.
gomerhodge71
No expansion. The talent is already watered-down. Get the Florida teams out of there. Move one to Montreal. The other could go to a Memphis or a San Antonio. Or, better yet, just have contraction and eliminate 4 teams. Tampa, Florida, Baltimore and ?? We need better quality baseball.
Bocephus
Yea let’s just do away with the playoffs and go back to the world series where it’s the NL pennant winner vs the AL pennant winner in a best of 9…
its_happening
Want to expand to 32 teams? Fine.
Tampa can sustain a team if they can get out of their lease and build a stadium in Tampa rather than play in St. Petes. They can draw fans from a lot of places where baseball is still popular around Florida. Oakland moving to San Jose would also help, and that’s been a difficult situation up to this point.
San Antonio is a Top 10 US cities in-terms of population. That should be one of the top considerations for a baseball team. Indianapolis, Charlotte, Nashville, Vegas, Portland also considerations.
The only Canadian city that should be considered is Vancouver. Montreal should not be considered, ever. Unless MLB plays weekend only games and Montreal plays Toronto, New York or Boston, they will not draw.
154 games works. If you care about MLB records, why do you resist the idea of hitters taking elbow and arm guards off? The record holders didn’t have evoshield from the 1800’s up to the early 1990’s, and most didn’t have ear flaps on their helmets, advanced baseballs and bats etc. Take the guards off, some hitters will back off the plate and pitchers will back off the heaters and throw more breaking balls that hitters won’t foul off as much. Tommy Johns will decrease, innings for starters will increase and you will see more contenders for 20 win seasons. That will allow less “diluted” pitching for a 32-team league.
takeyourbase
So MLB wants to keep the integrity of the game intact. Which means they will still not allow anyone involved with baseball to bet but they want profits from sports betting. Seems legit. SMH