There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).
Here’s more from the National League:
- Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
- The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
- Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.
resident
Imagine being the interim general manager and trading DeGrom. I now understand why Wilson said he will retain final say on all deals.
resident
That’s Wilson obviously. My spell check isn’t a Met fan.
MetsYankeesRedSox
Wilpon
Mine didn’t auto correct
pinkerton
good for you.
matthew102402
I have a feeling the Mets are still going to try and go for it this offseason instead of doing the logical thing.
thegreatcerealfamine
Yea you’re probably right, but we see what their version of going for it is. That division and any wild card spot are so far out of reach for them now and over the next couple of years it’s just sad.
majorflaw
“ . . . the Mets are still going to try and go for it this offseason . . . “
What exactly do you see them doing, keeping in mind the commitments already in place? If everyone already under contract is healthy next year the Mets are only a few tweaks away from contention. They do have talent. Problem is much of it is on the DL. That’s kinda the conundrum, if healthy they are good, if unhealthy they are stuck. What’s your proposed solution?
brewcrew08
So you pretty much explained every team that is in contention every year. Healthy they are good, injury bug hits them they aren’t.
jbigz12
The Mes don’t have a starting C,1B, and 2B under contract next year. They have one prospect , Alonso, who could be their 1B but nothing for the other two. Amed Rosario hasn’t shown a thing at the plate and Conforto took a step backwards. Their closer is also a FA. Define a “minor tweak”
BrianSouza
Realistically that’s the difference between a good team and a bad team. The Mets have a solid squad looking at the roster to begin the season but struggle because they are very shallow and cannot perform when injuries inevitably mount. You see the same with the Angels in the AL and other pretenders. The reason why the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros have managed to stay on top is because they are built to continue winning even with top players on the DL or underperforming. It also doesn’t hurt to have perennial Cy Young/MVP candidates on both sides which the Mets do not currently have on the offensive side of things.
The Mets are realistically more than a few tweaks away from contending, they are almost an entire infield from contending.
majorflaw
“The reason why the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros have managed to stay on top is because they are built to continue winning even with top players on the DL or underperforming.”
Yes, exactly. Injuries are going to happen to every team. The above teams have the flexibility to do something when injury or urine-poor performance hits. If Brett Gardner were injured and out for the year, the Yankees would either promote Frazier or go out and get somebody. They wouldn’t make Greg Bird their LFer. The Mets would. And actually did, if I read correctly.
“The Mets are realistically more than a few tweaks away from contending . . . “
Hadn’t seen how bad Rosario has been. Perhaps they do need more than a few tweaks. Cespedes, Nimmo and Conforto isn’t a bad starting OF. Remember the premise assumes health. But, yeah, they really have to redo their IF pretty much from scratch next year. They’ll likely keep Rosario and hope he improves. Everyone else should start working on their resumé.
resident
Wilpon
MetsYankeesRedSox
Imagine having just turned 30 and being regarded as being at a “relatively advanced age”
chound
Not only should the Mets get a good deal done, they should also promise him a contender trade if he wants it to get the deal done. And then sell sell sell. .
MetsYankeesRedSox
DeGrom already has the Yankees haircut.
If he goes to the Yanks, fans still get to see him pitch in person.
Git er done Mets!
brewcrew08
How can you be a Yankees and a Red Sox fan? That’s not natural. Also Mets won’t trade DeGrom to the Yankees.
Bocephus
“Also Mets won’t trade DeGrom to the Yankees” I really wish people would stop saying that on here, because no one in the Mets organization has stated that. Please don’t cite past dealings as reasoning cause the bottom line being nobody knows.
Sideline Redwine
Peripherals? Give me 10-2 with an era barely north of 2.00. I too expect regression–not because of some statistic, but because players can rarely maintain such high levels of excellence over 162 games.
There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Mikel Grady
Ha ha . Agreed
southpaw2153
You risk getting viciously repudiated by the lemmings on this site for daring to besmirch their hallowed sabr b.s. These sabr believers still think Harper is having a good year because he walks a lot, despite the fact the guy rarely does any damage with his bat.
Keep up the good work!
P.s. According to statistics, the average human has 1 testicle.
stansfield123
That’s a stupid way to phrase it, but the intelligent version (“the average number of testicles on a human is around one.”) is an obvious statement of fact.
deweybelongsinthehall
LOL. i have video game stats and the testicle comparison is in my view spot on.
deweybelongsinthehall
LOL. i hate video game stats and the testicle comparison is in my view spot on.
majorflaw
“You risk getting viciously repudiated by the lemmings on this site for daring to besmirch their hallowed sabr b.s.”
Howdy, alleged lemming here. What exactly do you have against the Society for American Baseball Research?
jeremytk42
My gZBIP in my right testicle is -3.4 so I’m most definitely due for a regression…
joshua.barron1
Yea math is dumb. You know what, all higher education is dumb. Why research anything? Let’s just live in garbage cans with our 1 testicle and 1 breast! Yay stupidity!
LH
Ignorant
jeremytk42
Saber dudes always find negatives in players no matter how good they are playing….I absolutely hate that crap.
They’d find a way to knock Ted Williams hitting .406….oh wait, that’s right I totally forgot batting average means nothing….
southpaw2153
Yeah, batting average is useless. Harper is better because he walks a lot. Doesn’t do much else but hit a few Hr’s, but he’s on a HOF trajectory, right? Lol.
southpaw2153
Give me Boggs, Carew, Yount, Lansford, Mattingly, etc., spraying hits all over the field and not striking out 180 times per year over these guys who, basically, walk, strikeout or homer these days.
Game is really boring these days save for a few hitters.
jeremytk42
While I don’t agree at all about the game being boring now, I absolutely agree with the rest of your post. I’m so sick of nobody caring about striking out 200 times a year. Remember when that was blasphemy? Don’t get me wrong, there are still hitters around these days in the mold of some of my all-time favs which you listed a couple above but for the most part, it’s not and never will be the same. And this starting an RP trend is crap. Who wouldn’t want to watch a guy shut a team down for 7,8 or nine innings? Dumb.
Really the point of this post was to find a way for me to use the word “blasphemy”
Thank you, goodnight
Cam
Pitcher wins are a stat. ERA is a stat. So why are you undoing your own argument?
Solaris601
With Alderson on the shelf for the foreseeable future I don’t see the Mets making any trades of significance during the season. They might shop Syndergaard this winter, but I don’t see either him or deGrom going anywhere any time soon.
stansfield123
Ridiculous. If you’re gonna deal somebody, you deal the guy who’s gonna help a contending team NOW. That’s deGrom. He’s the one who’s gonna get the most return.
And, of course, you deal him to the team willing to pay the most…even if that team is called the Yankees.
jbigz12
The only argument I can see Rosenthal having in favor of keeping Degrom and selling Syndergaard is that he doesn’t think Syndergaard can stay healthy. Might be true but it’d be awfully hard to sell him at what would seem to be a low point.
formerlyz
As a Marlins fan that has always liked Dietrich, I will reiterate what I’ve said for the last few years. Good thing the Marlins made that abhorrent trade for Dee Gordon. The 4 other 2b they had obviously wasnt enough……………………….
andrewgauldin
I really hope Dietrich and Anderson make the all star game. They deserve it. But I think Realmuto will probably be the only fish in the all star game, and if there’s a second, it would probably be Barraclough. Tough love for guys like Dietrich and Anderson who are having great seasons but just don’t get the media recognition, granted there’s reasons for that…
jb19
Why trade Thor when his value is down? I don’t see DeGrom’s value getting any higher. Trade him now, don’t hand him money when you are no where near contention.
outinleftfield
Thor is constantly hurt. deGrom stays healthy. That was Rosenthal’s point.
ThatBallwasBryzzoed
Lester is like a fine wine. Getting better with age. He hit a bomb too this week.