We’re now through substantially more than one third of the regular season. The competitive picture is still unfolding, to be sure, and the trade deadline promises to bring notable roster changes as well. But the general outlines of the postseason race are at least beginning to reveal themselves.
In most divisions, there’s a yawning gap at some point that separates the still-competitive teams from those that seem too far back to mount a charge. In fact, there are spreads of at least 6.5 games present in every division … except for one.
With ~60 games in the books, the NL West has played itself to a near-standstill.
It wasn’t long ago that the D-Backs were sprinting ahead of the pack with the Rockies chasing after them like an eager young pup. The Dodgers were seemingly stuck in second gear, while the Giants were flying like a wounded duck.
If you can forgive that hodgepodge of metaphors and similes, the general picture was one in which last year’s pair of surprise NL Wild Card winners from Arizona and Colorado were doubling down. Meanwhile, the old guard California clubs were not just turning in a mediocre showing on the field, but were facing increasingly worrisome injury situations.
Wait … are we leaving someone out? Ah yes, the Padres. Despite making a big free-agent investment in Eric Hosmer and extending (rather than trading) closer Brad Hand, the San Diego organization was not even seen as a dark-horse contender in all but the most optimistic quarters. And the team’s early record reflected that questionable outlook, making it easy to assume at the time that they wouldn’t factor into the race except as a potential late-season spoiler.
And now? Well, regression has taken its revenge, and done so swiftly. The teams are lined up neatly in a row, one behind the next. Even the Padres are within 4.5 games of first — closer than all but 8 other teams chasing leaders in other divisions. There’s a rather tight spread of talent distribution, too, particularly with the Dodgers losing Corey Seager for the year and Clayton Kershaw for an as-yet-undetermined stretch.
So, with something approaching a reset in the NL West, which team do you see as the favorite the rest of the way? (Team order randomized; app users can access the poll by clicking here.)
It’s gotta be LAD. Despite all the injuries and nonsense that has surrounded the team, they are only 2 games back. You have to think they will improve at the deadline and continue to get healthy and play better. They just happen to be so lucky that the rest of the division is a trash fire.
well with that argument you can say it has to be the giants, they have played so far nearly the entire way without a #1,2,3,4 in the rotation and are still only 1.5 games back.
Statistically speaking, the Dodgers have been unlucky. The two lucky teams in this division are the Rockies and the Giants. That said, the Dodgers are under major constraints in their ability to spend to improve at the non-waiver deadline. The Giants aren’t much better off in that respect, if they want to hold payroll under the luxury tax reset number.
I think it will be a close battle between the Dodgers and the D’backs, with the Dodgers having a small edge. As some have pointed out though none of these teams are well prepared for the postseason or have much ability to make upgrades.
Dodgers have the best run differential by far. If they can finally get some luck on the injury front they will win the division.
Run differential is the most overrated stat around. Beating someone 15-2 is no better than beating someone 3-2.
Exactly, hiflew. There have been plenty of blowouts this season, and if you normalize most of them to a 2-3 run loss, there are at least 6 teams that would flip a negative RD to a positive, including the Giants.
“Beating someone 15-2 is no better than beating someone 3-2.”
Not necessarily true. From a W-L perspective, a win is a win. However a blowout allows the winning team to sit their starter early and substitute for others in need of rest or recovery. Counts the same in the standings but most teams would prefer a blowout.
“Run differential is the most overrated stat around.”
That can’t be true as long as they still keep count of “saves” and “quality starts.” Run differential is the basis for Pythagorean Win %, which has proven to be a better indicator of future win % than past win %.
No, it’s a very good predictor of W-L records over the course of a season and pretty darned close close to the money even over fairly short stretches. You could simply look that up.
Some of us already have. Based on run differential (Pythagorean method), the current standings in the NLW would be:
Dodgers 33-26 (.559)
D’Backs 32-27 (.542)
Giants 27-33 (.450)
Rockies 26-33 (.441)
Padres 27-35 (.429)
What this tells us is two teams in the division (Rockies and Giants) are currently winning games well above their ability to score and prevent runs, and the Dodgers below.
Thanks for the clear explanation.
I like run differential/Pythagorean records, but the 2nd and 3rd order Pythagorean winning percentages are more accurate/helpful. Of course, they’re all built off each other, so you can’t really have one without the other
Thanks for bringing that up. Where do you find 2nd and 3rd order? Looked on Baseball Prospectus but could not find.
This division is very close to being the worst in MLB, only the AL Central can claim the overall title. It’s amazing that the Dodgers who have been decimated by having marquee players injured are this close, thank god for that player everyone loves to ridicule..Matt Kemp.
But what about their supposed depth?
The Giants weren’t supposed to be a competitive team at all, and have had at least as many injury losses as the Dodgers, yet they have outperformed them thus far, all without their first two starters for the majority of the season… LAD has once again relied on a massive outlier of performance (Kemp, as you mentioned) to buoy them. Not going to get it done this year.
Outperformed them by a half a game? The Dodgers too haven’t had their best two starters. Is Panda not an outlier as well? I personally love it when both teams are good, and at maximum health. Really hope it’s between them for the division.
Given expectations, the Giants being up on LAD is massive, and the Giants haven’t had their best two starters either. Not only that, but the replacements have very little big league experience. To hold it down the way they have is impressive.
Pablo has been playing off the bench, not starting (until Belt went out a few days ago), and it’s not as if his performance has been completely off the charts of what is expected, unlike Kemp.
What’s “massive” is the number of teams that are currently upside-down in this division. Two teams with winning (or even) records have allowed significantly more runs than they’ve scored. This is a strong statistical marker for teams that over time are likely to end up with losing records. The division also has one team with a positive run differential (a strong statistical predictor of a winning record) currently with a losing record. Probabilities say that is unlikely to hold either.
Are you talking about the New York Giants? Or the SF Giants who went out and traded for McCutchen and Longoria? The Giants were expected to be good this year…..
Lol! You were saying?
I really felt AZ would have capitalized on the opportunity to dominate an unusually average division, but Pollock’s on the shelf yet again, the starting staff has struggled for consistency, and Paul Goldschmidt is mired in the slump of his life.
Rockies also have enough talent to get it done, but that starting staff is sooooo shaky that it’s hard to predict what any one of them will do from start to start.
playing many games in coors doesnt help that rotation…
I agree with you that run differential is overated, but it does point out that they still stand to be competitive with less then stellar pitching.
I’m not a betting man but if I were I’d bet it all the Pads won’t win spit. Not with all four teams in the mix DBags, Rox, Frisco, and the NL Champions L.A. Dodgers.
In what order?
Dodgers. With D’bags and Rox close behind.
Rockies. Injuries wiping out Dodgers and dbacks. Bochy always tough. Padres will play a role….they will beat some of these west rivals head to head. Who will make a big move @ trade deadline? Giants or Dodgers would be my forecast. A big trade might determine division winner.
You don’t win a division with a losing record at home. Rockies are in 4th place by seasons’ end.
I don’t know but let’s make this race more interesting
Orioles:
–
Trade Gausman and Brach to the Rockies
–
Trade Machado to the dodgers
–
Trade Britton to the Padres (move hand to reliever
–
Trade Jones to the Giants.
If MadBum comes back and is anything like his former self, the Giants may have enough to get it done. The length of Kershaw’s absense will be key though.
Ha
History has shown that the Dodgers play better without Kershaw
Found this on ESPN…
“Consider that in winning four consecutive division titles from 2013 to ’16, the Dodgers were 79-35 in games Kershaw started, a .693 winning percentage. In games he didn’t start, the Dodgers went 290-242, a .543 winning percentage. Remove Zack Greinke from the equation — he was with the team for the first three of those division titles — and the Dodgers were 226-214, basically a .500 team without one of its two aces on the mound.”
Well gee! Guess the Dodgers don’t need to spend $30 million plus per year if he opts out of his contract after this season, based on your evaluation….right?
The Giants. Much improved with injured players returning, and Cueto due back end of June. Smardge improving daily. Offense on a tear as pitching starts to roar. Look out!
I am counting shark out, he hasn’t been right from spring through now, He should probably stick in the pen when he gets right and stick for now with, bum, cueto, strat, holland, suarez.
I’d rather see Rodriguez over Holland, its going to be interesting how this shakes out once everyone’s back
Injuries seem like they’ll be playing the biggest role in this division. LA has been bitten hard by the injury bug this year, yet they’re still in the running. I have to guess that over the course of another hundred games or so, the Dodgers will find some way to win the division again. Not as sure as I was that they’ll advance to the WS this year, though.
Giants will be getting Bum and Cueto/Belt back (today and later this month, respectively), and have been playing great, though inconsistent, baseball with a patched-up lineup. The bench has been a revelation, and the offense is much more capable than they’ve been in years.
Once the rotation is back to normal, this is a division-contending team. The fact that they are where they are with almost a complete lack of established starters is incredible. Giants are in first by the ASG and fight it out with the Dodgers the rest of the way.
Keep clinging to those hopes Giant fans. In reality, youve barely outperformed the Padres so far.
That’s one way to look at it… However, they’ve also got a better record than the Dodgers so far, so which way you wanna go?
Every team in the division has barely outperformed the Padres.
Never happen, but would be thoroughly entertaining if the Pads won this. With a losing record.
How’d that work out for you?
Based on last season records, The Padres had the hardest schedule to start the season over the first 50 games or so. They won’t contend, but I think they’ll hover close to.500 before they trade half of their squad. Hand, Yates, Stammen, Spangenberg, Richards, Ross, Ellis and possibly Spangenberg and Jankowski should all be dealt.
Spangy is good enough to get traded twice.
This is probably the best case scenario right here. Let the bigger dogs fight it out while the Padres trade their assets, build the farm up even more, and get ready for next year. It will likely be the Dodgers, or possibly the Diamondbacks who will end up winning the division anyway.
Arizona. No way that offense stays at the bottom of the league.
Rockies fan here, I see LA winning it, the Rox will fade unless they can bolster their offense, they need to score runs this year to win at home.
I think it’s going to be close the whole way but I really don’t see the dodgers hanging around that long. They have depth and their injuries hurt them a bit, but they’re still a game under .500. The giants injuries hurt more because they don’t have the depth. They’re without their #1 all season and #2 for most of it now. Their best offensive player in belt is out for a couple weeks now. The dbacks offense is not going to stay this quiet for much longer and who knows about the Rockies pitching at coors field. I think the Rockies will hang around longer and it’ll come down to the giants and Rockies. That’s of course if no significant players get hurt long term with any of these teams.
how about we just cancel this division and have no one win it, that’s how bad these teams are playing
AL Central is worse.
A tight race like this is great for baseball. It could be a dog fight all the way. Each team has a real chance to win the division. The team’s managers, coaches and of course injuries will be factors. Go Rockies.
“A tight race like this is goo for baseball” it’s not good for any sport to have a division this subpar.
Doesn’t matter who wins the division. None of these teams are good enough to go deep into the playoffs.
Dodgers have enviable, in fact insane depth. They are gonna find a way to win that division whether it means promoting a prospect or trading them. Now the playoffs is a different story but I’m fairly confident they will win the division.
Here’s a potential conundrum the Dodgers weren’t expecting to face: should they again attempt to trade Matt Kemp while his stock is high to get as much of his remaining salary off the books to have flexibility to add talent at the deadline?
Good question. I think yes, but not with the purpose of creating payroll room for a deadline trade this year, but with an eye towards next year. This means eating most of his remaining contract to maximize the return. Say this because I don’t see the Dodgers as being in much shape to compete in the postseason even if they can swing a trade or two, especially if they have to give up one of their biggest guns to get them. The needs are just too great. The real fly in the ointment is Kemp’s renaissance is due in no small part to his joy of being back in LA. Other teams are going to be wary of how a trade would affect his attitude and his play. For better or worse, the Dodgers own Kemp.
Kemp has a history of starting hot then fading. He’s playing well beyond the point where he usually cools off.
But, if I’m any other GM, I’ve gotta ask why Kemp was in such poor condition the past few years? And would he return to being out-of-shape and unmotivated if traded. I wouldn’t have any trust that Kemp can maintain this in LA, let alone anywhere else.
This didn’t sound right so I checked. Actually, the weakest month for Kemp over the course of his career has been May. No hot start/summer fade pattern shows up in his numbers. So you can say what you will about Kemp, but not that.
I’ll take the 1000-1 odds for the Padres. They will call up Urias and Tatis Jr after the all-star break and keep winning while the other teams will get all kinds of freak injuries opening the door for your 2018 division champs the San Diego Padres.
If the odds really are 1000-1, I’ve got a tenspot I’m willing to risk!
They don’t need Tatis or Urias; they need to stop having weekly bullpen games. Richard has gotten into a very nice groove (his ERA is in the mid 2s when he walks 1 or fewer batters), Ross has been solid, and Lyles is regressing but has still stabilized one of the rotation spots. But Lauer keeps pulling a Jekyll/Hyde routine, and they never really replaced Lucchesi when he went on the DL. They’ve turned over 60% of the rotation since camp broke, and while it’s generally been positive, they’re clearly a starter or two short.
This is the dumbest poll I ever seen on this site.
Say what you want about the NL West, but it’s packed with damn good players. If not for a freakish number of injuries to key players the division would be as competitive as any in baseball.
I like how most of the Padre fans are staying out of the discussion. We know this team is probably not going anywhere this season.