The Tigers received brutal news on Tuesday, as first baseman Miguel Cabrera was diagnosed with a ruptured tendon in his left biceps that will require season-ending surgery to repair, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters after tonight’s game (Twitter link via MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery). He’d previously left tonight’s game against the Twins to undergo an MRI after injuring his arm on a swing (video link) and had since been seen leaving the clubhouse with his arm in a brace.
Cabrera, 35, had gotten off to a nice rebound start to his 2018 season after a career-worst season in 2017. While his power had yet to return, he was batting .301/.394/.451 with three homers and 11 doubles through 155 trips to the plate. Cabrera had already missed nearly a month of the season due to a hamstring strain but had gotten on base at a .362 clip in 11 games since returning. Now, it seems that the rebuilding Tigers will be without one of the best hitters of the generation until the 2019 season.
While Detroit has gotten off to a better start than most anticipated, at 31-37, the organization likely didn’t have any delusions of contending for a postseason spot. But the team certainly will miss the presence of Cabrera in the lineup, and his injury will come as an unequivocal blow to the team’s spirits over the season’s final four months.
The greater question for the Tigers, and one that can’t be answered in the short-term, is what type of effect the mounting pile of injuries that Cabrera has endured in recent seasons will have on him in 2019 and beyond. Cabrera played through a pair of herniated disks in his back last season and, unsurprisingly, struggled immensely (by his own standards, anyway; his overall output was actually that of a roughly league-average hitter).
Between the herniated disks, last month’s hamstring strain and a minor groin strain earlier in the 2017 season, the long-durable Cabrera — he averaged 155 games per year from 2004-16 — has begun to show increasing signs of wear and tear. For a player who’ll turn 36 next April and is still owed an otherworldly $162MM from 2019-23 — his age-36 through age-40 seasons — that sudden decrease in durability and productivity is alarming. It’s not clear if the Tigers have insurance on Cabrera’s contract, though typically a team will take out a policy on a contract of this magnitude, in which case the Tigers could stand to be reimbursed for at least a portion of Cabrera’s $30MM salary in 2018.
[Related: Detroit Tigers depth chart]
In the short-term, the Tigers will likely turn to John Hicks and Niko Goodrum to log most of the at-bats at first base in Cabrera’s absence. Each saw significant action there in Cabrera’s earlier absence, with Hicks picking up 248 innings and Goodrum logging 92 innings at the position.
The Tigers don’t have a first base prospect who’s knocking on the door in Triple-A or Double-A, though 24-year-old minor league signee Edwin Espinal is getting on base at a .374 clip in Triple-A and has displayed strong K/BB tendencies despite a lack of power (.104 ISO). Speculatively speaking, perhaps the club could give Nicholas Castellanos a look at the position, as he’s once again turning in dismal defensive ratings for his work in right field. Alternatively, if the Tigers front office is keen on adding a low-cost veteran to the mix, both Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez were cut loose by the Red Sox and Mets recently and have yet to sign with a new organization.
If Miggy never plays another game, is he a HOFer? My vote would be yes, but I am just curious what others think.
of course he is
Modern day Triple Crown winner stamped his ticket
I’m as on board with saber as anyone. My favorite stat might be RE24. And even I think the triple crown that he won was amazing.
I completely agree that batting average is not the best tool to judge offense when OBP is just as easy to calculate, and we have readily accessible more advanced numbers.
I completely agree that RBI is a COMPLETELY team dependent stat. If you can hypothetically bat 1.000 on a season, getting doubles and triples in every plate appearance and in an extreme hypothetical walk away with 0 RBI… meanwhile if you ALWAYS come up with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs you could rack up a ton of RBI without ever getting a solid hit., there’s a pretty glaring issue with that stat.
Even with GLARING problems in 2 of the triple crown stats, and arguments against the third being important, it’s still something that no one had done in 60 years. I think it’s silly that your comment is getting voted down because modern thinking says triple crown is meaningless. He’s a guy that was pretty much a relative surefire bet to get in anyway, and his having a triple crown on his resume – something no one in generations can say – DOES go ahead and punch that ticket. Especially since not all voters are going to be modern thinkers. He doesn’t quite have 3,000 hits and he doesn’t quite have 500 home runs. Those traditionalist voters can hang their hats on his triple crown instead
If you really think about it, OBP is just as team-dependent as RBIs. Getting on base is COMPLETELY meaningless if you don’t score. In an extreme hypothetical, you could have an OBP of 1.000 and not help your team win a single game if no one drives you in.
Well, no. If you have an OBP of 1.000, then by definition you have done a ton to help your team win. A player can’t control what the guys who bat after him do. He can only control what he does.
You might as well say that a player who hits a home run every single at bat provides no value if his team happens to lose the game anyway. It’s just wrong.
Good point Dan
It’s always a function of how great a player’s peak years are, and their total body of work. What Cabrera lacks in total body of work (which isn’t lacking much anyway as is) he more than makes up for with how ridiculously great he was at his peak.
Opposite side would be Beltre, who doesn’t have much in terms of eye popping peak year numbers but did his thing day in and day out for a long time and it adds up.
Beltre has 3000 its. He’s in.
Someone has to drive in the runners getting on-base. Otherwise you can be the Oakland A’s in the postseason, strand a bunch of runners and be out in round 1. Guys who can score the runners in scoring position still matter.
No, OBP isn’t team dependent at all. That’s how often you yourself are getting on base.
The RUNS you score are team dependent, sure. Which seems to be what you’re getting at. But Runs are a different stat. OBP isn’t team dependent at all.
Actually it could be argued that OBP is somewhat team dependent given the hitters before and after you. If they are all awful then the likelihood that you get walked goes up.
Hitting a home run and scoring a run helps your team win far more than getting stranded on 2nd base.
Yes, it is an individual stat, but it up to the rest of the team whether that individual stat actually means anything. Getting on base without scoring is by definition meaningless. It’s like the QB throwing for 400 yards while losing 41-14 or the NBA player scoring a lot in garbage time. Yeah you can look good in the stat book, but you did very little to actually help your team win.
I disagree. Having runners on base even if they do not score adds wear to a pitcher in game. A pitcher has to exhaust more pitches at the very least and in the case of a starter that would mean getting to the bullpen faster. For this reason alone I could not agree less.
Wow, some people sure hate to give people credit for anything. Trying to say someone who gets on base isn’t helping their team if no one knocks them in, so the only value they have is if every hit is a home run. Wow. People are harsh.
Getting on base is better than not getting on base. Since no one hits a home run every at bat, and there’s not always someone on base when a guy comes up to bat, if he doesn’t hit a home run it’s a good thing if he gets a hit or even a walk. Then it’s up to the guys after him to knock him in.
I can just imagine if every time someone came up to bat and got a non-HR hit, they castigated themselves for not getting a home run.
I agree with most of what you say except regarding OBP. A guy who has 200 hits and 50 walks is more valuable than a guy with 165 hits and 85 walks. Their OBP may be the same but the guy who gets the hits has the ability to drive in more runs. A walk is not just as valuable as a hit. In the bottom of the eighth with a runner on second or third and 2 down you need a hit and not a walk.
People forget one thing about saber metrics. It was designed to evaluate a players value relative to the market. Go back to the late 1990’s and early 2000s. You had the top free agents setting the market and the smaller market teams left with who they didnt want. If you had two first basemen with similar numbers teams started looking at OBP to differentiate between the two.
Look at this advanced stat. Look at the percentage of runs scored based solely on walks. Use a runs that result from a walk and rbis that result from a walk. The number of runs involving hits is much higher. Anytime a team can run out a .330 with a .380 OBP they are better than running out a .290 hitter with a .380 OBP.
He is a HOF’er to me. But, many will not vote for him based on the era he played in. He should get in on the first ballot, I’m guessing with an 85-90 percentage.
What era? He wasn’t a part of the steroid era. In fact, he was part of an extremely low scoring era 2010-2014.
Guys are still getting popped for PEDs ever since Cabrera started in 2003. You can make a case the era never ended.
Yea, what world does this guy live in.
He could have retired three seasons ago and he likely would have been a first ballot HOFer. Barring some crazy off the field issue or something, I can’t imagine a scenario where he’s not getting in easily.
He should be a first ballot hall fame whenever he decide to retire. Even though he has been playing in the era that someone players have been cheating the game. As far as we know he has never been suspended for use PED or steroid. I didn’t think anyone in the pass has even suggested that he has been cheating the game in any shape or form.
1st ballot
Someone said on the Cardinals broadcast then other day that Pujols was the greatest hitter of the modern era and I shook my head thinking Miggy the whole time. Too bad he couldn’t be on better teams.
He’s been to the World Series a few times with the Tigers and they made it to the playoffs yearly. He won a Ring with the 2003 Marlins. I think he’s done quite well being on very good teams.
Then you never paid attention to how rare Pujols was for the first 11 years of his career. All time elite hitter doing something that only a handful of players had ever done (and Cabrera wasn’t one of them).
I’m a Cubs fan and I do not like anything Cardinal-related, but I have to agree with the Cardinals broadcaster. Pujols may have never won a Triple Crown, but his consistency and dominance the first eleven years of his career is unmatched by anyone.
8 down votes for a compelling argument between Pujols and Cabrera? Really? You can make a strong case for both guys. Both guys have been ridiculously great.
Pujols said himself, Cabrera was the best right handed hitter he’s ever seen, including himself. High praise.
Are you kidding? That question had to have been a joke!
Is this a joke? He’s a middling, forgettable journeyman. Not everyone is a hall of famer.
I’ll assume you are joking, but there are enough people with actual terrible opinions around that it’s hard to be certain. If you’re going for satire, you’ll need to be a little more obvious about it. Sad, I know, but these are the times we live in.
Cabrera also has five more guaranteed years on his contract and I’m going to assume he sticks around to get to 3000 hits and 500 homers. Only guy with 3000 hits not in the Hall is Rose, and that’s because he’s not eligible. Only guys with 500 homers not in the Hall are A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Manny, Pujols and Papi. Papi, A-Rod and Manny aren’t eligible yet, Pujols is still active, obviously, and Sosa and McGwire have the PED accusations against them.
Oops, missed Sheffield, who had 509 homers but isn’t in the Hall because…reasons?
Probably he’s a jerk…but ya know, there aren’t any other jerks in the HOF or anything…also he was linked to steroids.
Forgot how much of an incredible player he was though.
you missed palmerio (hit 500 home runs, 3000 hits) as not in hof, despite being eligible.
sheff ended up in the balco deal in 03, also was one of the failed tests in 03 (along with a few of your other names), which is the likely cause for him not getting much voter support
We all know why Rafael Palmeiro isn’t in the hall, No comparison, Cabrera has never been accused of doping.
You also forgot Bonds as a 500 HR player not in the hall. Not sure how you could forget the all-time HR leader.
He’s a hall of famer. The triple crown, as dumb as that is – means something to older voters. He won two MVPs, one of them deserved, and his 2013 is pretty remarkable. Even with counting stats, he’s over 400 homers and 2600 hits. 70 career WAR which would put him in the top half of Hall of Famers. Career 316/395/551. All of his closest compas are Hall of Famers – Thomas, Chipper, Vlad, Bagwellm Stargell and a couple guys who aren’t in because of extraneous reasons – Manny and Helton.
Why would he not be? He would have been four years ago.
Surefire HOFamer, without question. One of the best hitters of his generation.
Of course he is. First ballot. Easy peasy. Nice day in Cooperstown for Tigers and Marlins fans.
.316 average with almost 1700 rbi- no doubt Hall of Famer. There is nobody out there with those numbers that has not been elected.
Manny machado to the tigers. You heard it here first
Will, have a seat and collect your thoughts. You’re talking nonsense. It’s concerning…
…and last
Lets look at the actual facts. The Tigers are playing better than expected. They need a hr hitter or two. They moved contracts off the books, and have more coming off this year. Iggy is a FA at the end of the year and while they have ss prospects, none look great with the bat. There are few, if any, deep pocket teams in need of a ss. Machado is young, wants to play ss, a position of need, and provides power. With all the pitching in the pipeline, its not difficult to see the Tigers contending in the Central in short order. Anyone who doesnt see the Tigers kicking the tires on Machado isnt really looking.
Kicking the tires and “machado to the tigers” are 2 very different things. Every team should kick the tires on Machado.
You are correct, sir. But I am pointing out that it is not that unlikely a scenario. What other team can both afford him, and needs someone to play SS? When you consider the lack of demand, the Tigers move up the list quickly.
If you wanna tell me the Tigers will sign him as a FA, wouldn’t shock me. But to trade for him is too steep a price. They need to hold on to those chips. Money is more easily spent than youth.
I think it is a very likely scenario. Remember that all the big market teams who were likely landing spots are now all set at third and short.
The Yankees have Andujar, Gregorious and Drury and don’t need his offense. They have money to spend and they will spend it on Corbin and Kershaw if he opts out.
The Redsox have Devers and a crew they are going to have to pay and they don’t need his bat.
The Dodgers have Turner and Seager.
The Mets could be an option. But right now- on paper- Machado to the Tigers makes the most sense for team need, Machado’s contract demands and overall situation.
The Hosmer contract is a good model. He got his large contract from a team in a rebuild that viewed him as young enough to still be productive when it pops. Machado is 26- a 29 year old Machado in the middle of a rebuilt Tigers offense makes alot of sense.
Question is… was that contract via donbromski (or however u spell his name) or ownership? Cus it’s a very very brutal one.
A lot of that money is back payment for the good years of the past. But, Dave Dombroski does have a penchant for tossing money around like it’s not his. Oh, wait…
The Miguel Cabrera contract was 100% Mike Illich. Cabrera was already inked for 2 years until age 32. Even though historically, a player’s last great year is at age 33 (most players) and Miggy’s generally poor playing shape, the Tigers extended him for 8 more years. Illich wanted a WS title badly and player’s agents knew that they could deal with Illich almost directly.
Yes the contract was on Ilitch. But have you ever seen his workouts? Make all of us here and most other players gasp for breath. His off season workouts are intense. He is never in poor playing shape, he is just a big guy.
Can you blame an owner for trying to pull out all the stops to try and win a word series before he died. If anything I would want that guy as my owner compared to owners who won’t open up there wallets and would rather sit on the money then put it into their team
I’d rather have a owner who shuts his mouth and stays out of the media and let’s the baseball people make baseball decisions.
Having a owner like that is a good way to never actually win and keeps Boras smiling ear to ear.
I don’t blame an organization throwing a ton of money at one of the best pure hitters of his time. Cabrera put that team on his back many, many nights.
Miggy isnt the only player to get one of the BIG contracts. He was just the last. Steroids and HGH had many players performing well, into their 40s. Once they cracked down, performances tapered. In 20/20 hindsight, of course it was a mistake. If contracts had risen as predicted, though, it could have been a bargin. Whatever happened to the 40mm/year contracts?
Both. Dumbrowski and Mr Illitch the owner who passed away.
Very unfortunate for all parties involved. 5 more seasons at $30+ million
I’m sure Miggy is quite fine with that contract.
Yeah I am confused about the “all parties involved” part of that.
The whole injury part…
I think the $30mil part of his comment is separate from the unfortunate part.
The injury definitely is unfortunate for everyone involved.
Then, reflecting on the money owed is a different story..
Wonder if the Tigers had insurance on the contract.
Teams shouldn’t even be allowed to get insurance on these deals. Making all the working class people pay higher rates because some buffoon gave up a ludicrous contract to play mlb baseball for 6 years past his prime. Be a learning experience for teams if they gotta pay it all without insurance maybe some of them will actually get smarter doubtful
At least he finished the season with .301 BA
Ha! Outstanding timing.
Good luck, big guy. I’ll be rooting for you.
He had season-ending injury when he swung awkwardly at a pitch.
.299 BA
Well which is it?
.301 or .299
It dropped to .299 when he didn’t finish his at bat.
If you were an owner, and you HAD to choose between having A) Cabrera and his remaining contract, or B) Chris Davis and his remaining contract on your books until expiration, which option would you go with?
Might without a doubt.
Miggy – he is at player fans want to watch. Will be a good draw for tickets when he approaches 500 HR’s as well as 3,000 hits.
And he can actually still hit a baseball and get on base. He provides positive value, granted, not 30MM worth, but way more than Davis.
Some Phillies fans used to call Joe Blanton ‘Joey Pancake’, because his pitches were usually flat.
Meanwhile the Tiger actually had a minor leaguer named Joey Pankake.
Which ever contract expires first is the proper answer. This notion hof in the twilight of their careers are significant to ticket sales is a narrative sports agents have duped the public into thinking.
So when ticket sales go up as milestones approach, thats just “fake news?”
HOF definitely….pretty sad; he’s been a class act through it all…..tough to feel bad for a multi millionaire, but he qualifies……always liked him…..
He did have an ugly, off the field incident or two related to his drinking problems.
And he recently complained about Tiger fans not appreciating him playing they injuries. There’s also a current paternity suit with a mistress.
Yah Miggy isn’t a good role model off the field
Yeah? You should read about this guy named Babe Ruth.
Move Castellanos to 1B and call up Christin Stewart to play RF.
It’s gotta happen soon. Better now than Sept 1st
Man I don’t want to see Miggy go out like this! I’d like to see him traded to a contender next year and hopefully revive his career!
it would have to be with his approval since he’s a 5 and 10 player.
He’d approve a trade if it meant going to a contender. The real problem is no one is touching that contract with a 10-and-a-half foot pole.
HOF worthy. Maybe this will give him enough time to fully heal up and have a better year in 2019.
Castellanos is having a good year at the plate but the man cannot field, period. If he plays first base the ball will find him more often and the opposition will have even more four and five out innings. Leave him in right field or better yet let him DH. There is no obvious first base candidate but it’s the easiest hole to fill…..something or some one will come along.
This is too terrible… Miggy is the core to a very promising young Tiger club… Two time MVP, Cabrera will be back, big time…
What a horrible contract extension. Made several years before he would have hit free agency.
Miggy was a great hitter. Horrible base runner, almost as bad defensively. But he could hit.
Was never more valuable than Trout, though, by any reasonable standard.
Better hitter? Miggy.
Better overall player? Trout.
Can we let Miggy have this moment? One of my favorite hitters to watch. No matter what way you look at it, he loses a lot of points, he plays 1B. Trout plays a premium CF.
What moment? He’s not retiring…
5 tool player (4 back then) is more valuable than a 2 tool player.
Trout can steal a base or make a great defensive play to help his team win. Miggy hurt his team once he left the batters box.
Miggy is a great hitter but a true MVP has value in all areas.
Horrible base runner? He is not exactly greased lighting, but he is a smart base runner.
He stole one base and led the league in GIDP by a wide margin his Triple Crown year.
First to third? Scoring on a non HR? Forget about it.
Again, great hitter. Bad at everything else.
Trout is obviously a better player than Cabrera. But that’s not fair. Cabrera is a great hitter.. Trout is probably going to end up as the best player of all time. Cabrera and Trout can co-exist.
They can definitely co-exist but they will forever be linked by the MVP races.
Miggy will go down as the last winner based on incomplete, out of date stats. Really, his unwarranted selection was the best thing for pushing analytics into the mainstream in many ways.
And I don’t blame Miggy. He’s handled it well. Old, out of touch voters in BBWAA just screwed the pooch.
Miggy led in OPS the back to back MVP seasons. Lead in OPS+ in 2013. To say he won based on out of date stats is ignorant.
Ignore that type of rhetoric, guys like that don’t watch the games they go off numbers. Analytics have cramped the game. Three true outcomes, how effin exciting.
Hilarious. I watch the game and love it. I love a hit. I love a steal. I love a guy scoring from first on a double. I love, absolutely love a defensive gem.
Now that we have better ways of documenting their value, it is cool.
I don’t need any stats to prove a guy who can do it all is more valuable than a guy who can’t. But it is nice to have them.
TrimReaper and did he provide any value outside of the batter’s box? The answer is a clear “no.” In fact, he actually hurt his team in the field and on the base baths.
One of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. But there’s more ways to be valuable than just hitting.
There’s more to being a good baserunner than being fast.
Pujols was well-known as being a great baserunner. He also led the league in GIDP in four different years.
Its great for the fantasy leaguers tho. Trout was Player of the Year. Miggy was MVP. If you dont understand the difference, you dont understand the history of the game.
Halos….given that Detroit would make the playoffs or be knocking on the door when Miggy raked like a legend, the answer would be a resounding yes.
Making the postseason and contending for a World Series as the best offensive force in that lineup speaks to his value to that team.
famine…I agree with you. I used those stats to kindly turn the tables.
“Pujols was well-known as being a great baserunner. He also led the league in GIDP in four different years.”
Pujols is actually #1 in GIDP, among all the active players.
Trout is more athletic, but he isn’t 6’5 250 lbs either. Miggy is a very large man, so of course he isn’t fast, but he can hit with anybody when he’s right.
For all the talk about his contract by the media and fans, the Tigers don’t seem to care about it. The goal was for him to retire a Tiger and go into the HOF as a Tiger. He is a lock for the HOF.
Don’t count him out either. He’ll be back!
Bobby Bonilla II?
Perfect spot for Hanley. Sign him, get him going and trade him at the deadline for a decent prospect.
Perfect spot for Hicks and Nikko. Call up Greiner to be second C.
Yeah, I’m sorry to see this but I thought the worst when I saw him walk away from home plate last night. He was obviously in pain and didn’t hesitate to head to the club house.
I was under the impression that ruptured tendons are caused by prolonged steroid use. I like Miggy too. Steroids or not, HOF.