As the 2018 MLB season nears the one-third mark, the playoff races in each league are beginning to take shape. While it’s no surprise that the majority of the sport’s so-called super teams have lived up to the billing thus far, several unexpected contenders may be emerging to challenge for postseason berths. None of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates were popular playoff picks entering the campaign, but all are in contention at this point, and a few of those teams even possess elite records.
The most successful of those clubs has been Seattle, which is one of just five teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Mariners have raced to a 32-20 mark (.615), the fourth-best record in the American League, even though they’ve had to go without superstar second baseman Robinson Cano for two weeks and won’t get him back in the near future. Cano suffered a fractured right hand in mid-May, but the 80-game suspension he incurred almost immediately after that injury is the more costly blow because it’ll render him ineligible for the playoffs – if the Mariners qualify, that is.
A postseason berth for Seattle would be its first since 2001, thus snapping the longest playoff drought in American sports. There’s clearly plenty of work for that to happen, particularly for a team that hasn’t been spectacular statistically and possesses a less shiny 27-25 Pythagorean record. But the Mariners’ actual record right now is so impressive that they won’t need to be great from here on out to remain firmly in the mix throughout the regular season. FanGraphs is projecting a mediocre 56-54 win-loss total over the Mariners’ final 110 games, but even in that scenario, they’d finish with 88 victories – three more than Minnesota amassed in 2017 en route to an AL wild-card berth.
The wild card is likely the M’s only path to the playoffs, as even though they’re just one game out of the AL West race, there’s little question the reigning World Series champion Astros will pull away with the division. Given the talent in the AL, a wild-card spot will be tough to come by for the Mariners, but general manager Jerry Dipoto seemingly increased his team’s odds last week when he acquired reliever Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span from the Rays. The Mariners already owned one of baseball’s best bullpens without Colome, and his presence should make Seattle an even harder out in close games. At 15-8, the Mariners have been one of the majors’ top teams in one-run contests this season.
Staying in the AL West, Oakland has perhaps exceeded expectations at 28-25, though it has scored fewer runs than it has allowed (234 to 237). Still, despite its underwhelming Pythagorean mark (26-27), FanGraphs is projecting an above-.500 final record for Oakland (82-80) – which would be its first such season since 2014 and could keep it in the discussion into September. However, with the Yankees or Red Sox (whichever team doesn’t win the AL East), Angels and Mariners among the teams fighting for two wild-card positions, a playoff position looks a bit unrealistic for the A’s.
Over in the National League, both the Braves (30-21) and Phillies (29-21) have gone from serving as longtime NL East doormats to looking like two of the premier teams in the game. Milwaukee, arguably a surprise team but one that did garner some preseason hype after winning 86 games in 2017, is the lone NL club with a superior record to Atlanta and Philadelphia. And only the Cubs have a better run differential than the Braves, who have outscored their opponents by 60 (261 to 201).
The Braves’ arduous, years-long rebuild is clearly paying dividends now, as a host of players under the age of 25 – including Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna (who’s now on the DL), Dansby Swanson, Sean Newcomb, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara and A.J. Minter – have been among their driving forces this year. With that group joining a few slightly older, already established players (superstar Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Mike Foltynewicz, to name a few), Atlanta looks as if it’s going to be around for a long time. And it might be ready now to return to the playoffs, where it hasn’t been since 2013, though the NL East is going to be a dogfight with both the Phillies and favored Nationals (29-22) right behind the Braves.
As for those Phillies, they own an even longer playoff drought than the Braves (six years), but that streak doesn’t look as if it’ll last much longer. Like Atlanta, Philadelphia went through a few years of suffering while simultaneously managing to stockpile young talent (Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Seranthony Dominguez, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Scott Kingery) that has either already established itself in the majors or is in the midst of doing so. Philly’s also a sleeping giant in terms of payroll, a club capable of spending alongside other big-money juggernauts, and it’ll put that advantage to use in the coming years. It already started last winter with the expensive free-agent signings of Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, two additions which have paid off so far (Santana did endure a poor April, but he’s gotten off the mat this month).
As with the Braves, the Phillies should be around for a while, and a playoff spot this year certainly isn’t out of the question. Although, despite their tremendous starts, FanGraphs is projecting both teams to finish with 82 wins and extend their playoff droughts.
Baseball’s other Pennsylvania-based team, the low-payroll Pirates, lost the battle for public opinion over the winter when they traded two veteran cornerstones (Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole) for younger players and didn’t sign any free agents to major league contracts. Some Pirates fans even called for owner Bob Nutting to sell the team in the wake of those deals, but he didn’t oblige.
Now, the Pirates are a solid 28-24 (plus-22 run) and have gotten there with some help from Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove, two players acquired in the Cole package. Fellow offseason acquisition Corey Dickerson – whom general manager Neal Huntington stole from the Rays in another trade – has been even better, while veteran holdovers Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli are also amid excellent seasons. Pittsburgh may be able to hang in the race all year, then, for the first time since 2015 – its most recent playoff berth. It’s going to be an extremely tall task to actually return to the postseason, though, with six NL teams – including the division-rival Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – ahead of Pittsburgh in the standings and several more breathing down its neck.
Every year in baseball, surprise teams emerge to upset the preseason apple cart. Just as the Twins, Diamondbacks and Rockies crashed the playoff party last year, at least one of the Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Phillies or Pirates could do it in 2018. The question is: Which team has the best chance to play into the fall?
(poll link for app users)
etreuden
Brewers should be included in this list. We’ve looked good for a few years now and we’re dominating this season but still get overlooked consistently.
atlho
I don’t really think the crew is in the surprise team catagory any more after aquiring Yelich and Cain.
etreuden
That’s fair. I just feel like the Brewers have always been vastly overlooked and underrated. I’m hoping that this is the year that they change that
jonsteele
maybe nationally. but trust me the midwest knows that’s a good team and I cant say I am utterly shocked at their good record thus far.
cubsfan2489
I didn’t know you played for the Brewers. Oh you don’t? So it’s “they” not “we”.
Houston We Have A Solution
The reason the fans can say “we” is because the fans are what allow players to make what they make and are what keep teams in business.
No fans = no multi million dollar contracts = no baseball team
“we” doesn’t mean a fan plays for an organization. “we” means being part of the organization and fans are a vital part of an organization, in any sport.
Front offices constantly use we. Whens the last time Billy Beane played for the A’s…..still uses we.
baseball is heaven
Good reply Pitches. Just another example of why everyone hates Cubs fans. Oh, sorry, I meant another reason WE all hate Cubs fans.
thegreatcerealfamine
Absolute GOLD
jeffsells
100% Accurate. Hate Hate Hate Cubs and Cub fans, and the toilet they call a ballpark
Adam6710
Front offices say “we” because they work for the organization.
So until you work for one of the 30 organizations, it’s “they”– not “WE.”
People who say “we” referencing their favorite sports teams are morons, full stop.
cubsfan2489
Thanks adam6710!
Beyond_Max_Power
You don’t get it. I feel sorry for you. Real fans use we. Posers don’t.
kyredsox17
You’re all a bunch of psychopaths. It really doesn’t matter. At all. One circumstance that popped in my head, because he disappears when we aren’t trying to go undefeated…the Rapper Drake…if he was ever talking about Kentucky Basketball, and said “we”, I’d cringe so bad. That’s because he’s not a real fan. So yes, fans can say “we”. In KY you may even hear them say “them”.
aj_54
This also grinds my gears
Cat Mando
cubsfan2489….I bet you are a lot of fun when crowds sing “We Are the Champions”.
twentyforty
The Brewers and Minnesota Vikings could share a trophy case. Neither are relevant. Ever.
Cat Mando
twentyforty……Are you?
I, not a fan of either team. I just find it ridiculous when people criticize fans for saying “we”. Teams strive to make fans feel like they are a part of something. I would wager that you won’t find a FO or player who gets upset when a fan says “we”.
Bocephus
Do they say “WE” at the home?
Cat Mando
As in “We are going on vacation”, “We are going out to dinner”, “We are going shopping”? Yep, all of the time. I never heard or said “”You are going on vacation and I am going too.”
darenh
Blair Walsh coulda made them relevant if he made a 26 yard FG.
Adam6710
Well, CastMando, the next time you’re on the field with your favorite team, or working within the organization, you can say “we are going to the playoffs.” Until such time, you should say “they are going to the playoffs and I am cheering them on.”
Because you are not going to the playoffs. You’re sitting in your living room– or at best in the stands– watching THEM do it.
Cat Mando
Well Adam…..And as I said…Teams strive to make fans feel like they are a part of something. I would wager that you won’t find a FO or player who gets upset when a fan says “we”. As a matter of fact even players remain caught up in it after years of devotion to a team….a story from Mike Trout’s father…
“Trout’s father recalled a story from a few years back when in the middle of the night, Jeff heard Mike scream from his room.”
“Dad, we got Roy Halladay!” Mike yelled. To which his Dad responded: “the Angels got Halladay?”
“No, the Phillies did!” Mike replied. “Son, you’re a member of the Angels. What’s with this we?!””
mlb.nbcsports.com/2012/09/27/mike-trout-still-a-ph…
BTW….”Until such time, you should say”…..I have never been one to say “we” very often but maybe I will start just to irritate those who believe they have the right to dictate how others feel.
Have a nice day….if you want.
sufferforsnakes
Hehehehe!
brucewayne
Who are you to tell anybody what they can say or how to feel ? WE think you are a major douche bag!
RedRooster
Ok fan police you gonna write him a ticket or something?
brucewayne
Douche !
spinningloot
With the pick up of Cain and yelich it really does take them out of the surprise teams… But how hot the brewers are that’s a surprise, theyre killing it.
brewskicrewski
Agreed. Even with the big moves The Crew got no respect and everyone talked how they’d never compete with their rotation. Starters haven’t been amazing but plenty good to keep us in games, and if they get it to the bullpen without too much damage they’re golden. I knew they’d prove the naysayers wrong.
brucewayne
Don’t sleep on the Cardinals! I think they will have a better 2nd have when healthier .
ayrbhoy
Please, I beg you- no more national attention for the Mariners. We’d prefer to fly under the radar thank you! It wasn’t that long ago (2016) where we were picked by Buster Olney and other pundits to make it to the WS. How did that turn out? Just focus on the Braves and Phillies please
TexRanchHand
Doesn’t matter if the Mariners are under or on the radar, they’re not getting past Houston.
GarOfFame
Only need to get past the Angels Angels
ayrbhoy
My bad- didn’t realize the topic was which surprise team will win their division
dewssox79
brewers. they are also getting healthy.
brucewayne
The Brewers pitching has been much better than I thought it would be. Don’t know if they keep it going in the 2nd half or not, but good luck to you guys! I hope the Cards give them a run for their money !
jacobsigel1025
The Phillies to me have the best shot. The Mariners and Athletics just simply won’t overtake Houston or even LA for my liking. Pittsburgh doesn’t seem like they will last. Both Atlanta and Philly have a great chance to capitalize on Washington’s injured roster. Atlanta has a great young team don’t get me wrong. I just think that they lack the veteran leadership that Philly has. Arrieta and Santana provided veteran status to add to their young core. The combo of Arrieta and Nola seems great plus Pivetta is having a great year. Santana only adds dimension to Herrera Hoskins Hernandez Franco etc… I think that Philly simply has less holes to fill than Atlanta.
CubsFanForLife
I don’t know how much veteran leadership is really required to be a playoff team, but the Phillies are slightly closer with the pitching staff. Both pitching staffs are glaring holes on Atlanta and Philly’s rosters, but I trust Nola/Arrieta more than Teheran/Folty/Newcomb
Caseys.Partner
“the veteran leadership that Philly has”
ROFLOL!
bravesandcrewfan
Freeman may have not made it to the world series yet but he’s been through the highs and lows of this team and he and markakis make for a pretty strong veteran group (even if markakis is likely overperforming)
casualatlfan
Honestly, the Braves’ problem isn’t really veteran leadership, the biggest problem is the inconsistency of the pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen, where there’s questions about just about every pitcher. The offense has also dropped off as of late, but IMO I see it as the league adapting to the Braves and their different approach (especially shown in their series with the Giants, where their obvious preparations paid off in spades in their sweep of the Braves).
spinningloot
Pitching is for sure what the braves lack. Its like when they habe a not so good game its terrible. If their offense wasn’t so strong they would definitely be out of. Any contention talk. Too bad Sanchez is out id love yo see him in and throw at least a few games
slowcurve
He’s starting tonight
Geli
While the Phils starting pitching has been great, the other aspects of this team will bring it down to mid-pack before the ASG.
The defense is seemingly on par with a LowA team in terms of boneheaded plays..
With the exception of Arano, Seranthony and occasionally Garcia, The bullpen is aspinning wheel of Which Reliever Will Lose This Game,
Much has been made of Phils OBP and patience at the plate, but at some point swinging at the first pitch that is down the middle might not be a bad thing *cough* Hoskins *cough*.
They may win 80 games this year.
sufferforsnakes
Cleveland…..because it’s surprising they’re even in it with that bullpen and underproducing vets.
NerdPowahh
Surprising? Have you not looked at the other teams in that division?
C’mon son…
sufferforsnakes
I’m talking about their play, not the other teams.
Be gone, son…..
Jack Taddy
But Cleveland is only “in it” because of the teams in their division. In any other division they wouldn’t even be a Wild Card team.
jbigz12
Cleveland has no choice but to be in it. 3/5 teams in the division have already called the season quits. The headline says surprise team. No one is surprised if the Indians win that division.
GarOfFame
As much as I want the M’s to make it, it seems like the ‘18 Braves are like the ‘08 Rays…
DG32
You mean both will lose to the Phillies?
sigmanj
Brewers
mlb1225
Braves. They’ve got a decent line-up with a handful of young pieces, and a good farm system with prospects on the verge of being ready.
Joe Kerr
Put the poll up Aug 1st, trade deadline will determine a lot.
NerdPowahh
How could you leave out the Detroit Tigers in the AL Comedy Central?
bravesandcrewfan
“Raise your hand if you think that the AL Central leader will have a worse record than the second wild card spot.”
-raises hand-
TradeAcuna
The Braves will fall out with their terrible unsustainable starting pitching and bullpen. They will continue to roll out Fried, Wisler, Sims, Jackson all season. They will not spend money and make trades to take advantage of this year because this year is supposedly “wasn’t supposed to be their season.” The arbitrary 2019 and 2020 is their year. Except they need to realize nothing is guaranteed and i can’t wait to see them fall on their face if they do indeed fail to make significant changes and roll in to next year with the same roster. The Braves are young though and that defin reassures everybody that their is a chance. But so are the Phillies and the Nats have young talent as well. The difference? The later two teams are not afraid to spend money and make trades.
spinningloot
Maybe when frank wren was the gm. Alex anthropolous (if I even spelt that right) has no problem spending money. I wouldn’t be surprised if we do a little too much come this deadline if the bravos are still up there.
marckahn
Nice to make the playoffs, but none of these teams are winning it all.
Motown_Madness44
Don’t sleep on the Tigers
darenh
If you expected the Brewers to have the best record in the NL, you are lying.
With a rotation of Anderson, Davies, Chacin and a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of, I thought they’d be awful.
Yeah they signed Cain and Yelich and what’s their payroll? 26th in the league.
And their best hitter has been…their 3rd string 1B. And they had to send Arcia down. Etc.
They are by far the biggest surprise. You’re lying if you expected them to be leading the Cubs by 5 games.
joepanikatthedisco
You’d have heard of Guerra and Suter if they were Cubs or Yankees.
jbigz12
Guerra is off to a surprising start but they’re both complete no names. They’re back of the rotation pitchers. Suter was an unheralded prospect out of the Ivy League who works fast. And Guerra is a 33 year old that didn’t crack the bigs until he was 30. YOur average fan does not and probably should not know guys like that.
Cat Mando
Last year they finished with 86 wins and everyone said it was a fluke….they just aren’t good enough, much like the 2014 Royals…they were supposed to be a fluke. They were such a fluke that not one of the “experts” at Fangraphs even gave KC a chance to make the 2015 postseason….at all.
Am I saying the Brewers are WS bound? Nope. I’m just not surprised they are doing well because baseball is played on a field by humans. You don’t have to have 3 sluggers and 3 TOR arms. All you need is leadership, a rounded team….2/3 of a lineup that makes contact and collects hits 1/4 to 1/3 of the time…a little power…a few decent starters and some bullpen arms and you can win consistently.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
My prediction for the Pirates is the same as it was going into the year…this is (forgive the term) a “bridge year”. The goal for this season is determining who on the roster can be part of a real contender beginning in 2019 and who cannot and needs to be upgraded.
The only way the Pirates contend would be if the division stays mired in mediocrity, but the Brewers appear to be disinterested in that.
The good news for the Pirates is that a lot of their players have shown that they can be important pieces going forward. Moran, Feliz and Musgrove were all question marks but have all shown that they can play at this level. Kingham, Santana, Diaz and Meadows have done the same. Obviously, they now need to prove they can do it consistently.
Polanco has regressed but he’s now expendable with Dickerson there. Bell is scuffling, but some league adjustment/sophomore slump is predictable. The main concern might be Taillon. The results aren’t matching the stuff/makeup and it’s unclear why.
Regardless of the results, I’ve already seen more really entertaining games this year than the past two combined.
Solaris601
I agree – Pirates are competitive in just about every game, and Cervelli has really stepped it up this year in every way.
Mendoza Line 215
I once again have to agree with you Josh.I had my hopes up for the Pirates after 1/4 of the season but winning just 5 of the last 18 games have doused them.I have a real concern now of Feliz as his record now reflects those of his last couple of years.
I think Taillon should come around if they let him pitch the way he wants to.
The only way I see Polanco making it is if he goes to AAA and actually WORKS on his hitting.
I honestly think Clint Hurdle is like Andy Reid in that he can get you to the playoffs but not win in them.
Yekatman
Fangraphs predicted the Crew would have a sub-500 season and be lucky to finish 4th in the Central Division. They were roundly criticized in almost all quarters for not signing Darvish or another free agent starter.
I don’t think it is a stretch to consider them a surprise contender.
oaksbossko
When will Melvin learn to stop playing Joyce leadoff every game? And when will the front office realize to cut him? I’m not saying this will dramatically improve the A’s, though it will, I’m just posting this after tonight’s game ending. CUT JOYCE ALREADY!
Solaris601
I really thought Joyce was a stopgap player for them before this year, and I felt at best he’d be a bench piece for them this year. I really don’t understand why he gets so much playing time when OAK clearly has better options.
oaksbossko
Last season, he provided the A’s with good power and decent OBP. It was a good team friendly contract for 2 years and the first year was good, but this year is becoming disastrous. The A’s need to suck it up and just cut him. Hard to imagine anyone would be willing to trade for him.
troll
detroit will
Solaris601
I think it’s a tossup between ATL and PHI due to their success so far as well as their ability to afford to make significant additions by the deadline. Braves really need to go out and get one of the best SPs available to stabilize that rotation. Their offense has no problem generating runs, but when you need to put up 7+ runs/game just to compensate for the pitching, gotta make some solid moves.