The Angels won the offseason, as you may have read. In years past, that has often meant only that a team sacrificed the most in future resources (salary commitments and/or pre-MLB talent) to improve its MLB roster. With regard to the 2018 Halos, though, it meant landing a great degree of major-league talent at a relative bargain — thanks, mostly, to the score of the century in Japanese wunderkind Shohei Ohtani.
We’ve already broken down the Angels’ offseason efforts in full. And we’ve now observed the team run out to a 25-18 start to the season that has kept it in range of the defending World Series champion Astros in the AL West. So, what are the key factors in the team’s quality opening play and can it be sustained?
How have the Angels succeeded thus far?
It’s not all about Ohtani, of course, but adding him at minimal cost has been everything the Halos hoped for and more. He’s settling in and looking increasingly dangerous on the mound, where he has provided 32 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA pitching. And Ohtani has exceeded even the most optimistic projections at the plate, with a .348/.392/.652 output through 74 plate appearances.
The other significant position players the Angels added or retained over the winter, meanwhile, have been more solid than great. Justin Upton is hitting well but not exactly outproducing his hefty contract. Zack Cozart has been solid. Ian Kinsler is continuing to defend like a star but is off to a sluggish start at the plate.
The rock upon which all of this is built, of course, remains Mike Trout, who’s a merciless WAR machine. But Andrelton Simmons has somewhat quietly also been among the game’s very best players to this point in 2018. The all-world defender is rather amazingly walking at nearly twice the rate he has struck out (9.3% vs. 5.6%) while producing at about 50% better than league-average on offense.
With Ohtani in the mix, the rotation has been in the top third of the league by measure of ERA, FIP, and xFIP. In some ways, this is the most promising development of the young season. Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Garrett Richards, and Nick Tropeano are all healthy and delivering quality results, while Jaime Barria has a 2.13 ERA through his first 25 1/3 MLB innings.
Is it sustainable?
On a team level, there’s no indication that the Angels are just lucking their way into victories by squeezing out close wins. Their Pythagorean and BaseRuns records are spot on to the actual results for a team with a +31 run differential to this point of the season. But that’s not to say there aren’t some underlying numbers worth considering.
Catchers Martin Maldonado and Rene Rivera have each hit at an average-or-better rate. Unfortunately, their career number suggest that’s unlikely to continue; each (particularly Rivera) has benefited from ball-in-play fortune. Of course, some other players have been on the other side of the BABIP gods. That’s particularly true of Kinsler, though he certainly has not stung the ball this year (.298 xwOBA). Similarly, Kole Calhoun’s miserable start has likely been the product of both bad luck and suboptimal contact (.173 wOBA vs. .271 xwOBA). Somewhat worryingly, reserves Chris Young (.246 wOBA vs. .237 xwOBA) and Luis Valbuena (.283 wOBA vs. .263 xwOBA) have even been a bit fortunate to produce at the middling rate they have to this point, though certainly both have broader track records of solid offensive output.
One issue remains the ongoing presence of Albert Pujols, whose fall-off at the plate has really not abated. He doesn’t strike out much but also doesn’t get on base or even hit for all that much power (.165 ISO). Limited to first base or the DH slot, he’s a replacement-level player. If you imagine he and Simmons swapping batting lines, perhaps it doesn’t sting us much. But there’s no indication that Pujols will get back to being an above-average hitter, while there’s likely good reason to believe that Simmons will begin to regress back toward his typical levels of average (or worse) outcomes with the bat. Likewise, it seems reasonable to bake in a bit of caution into projections for Ohtani’s work at the plate.
In the aggregate, the Halos may be outperforming their true talent on offense, but not dramatically so. Entering the season, though, that wasn’t the question. Instead, as we heard over and over in MLBTR chats, fans wondered: “Do the Angels have enough pitching to contend?”
There’s good news and bad news on that front. While Barria and Tropeano are outperforming their peripherals, the rotation as a whole has deserved its quality results. Ohtani and Heaney have each been much more impressive by measure of fielding-independent pitching than of actual earned runs. Promising as it is to see so many talented arms finally healthy and productive in the majors, there still has to be some concern about whether that’ll hold up all year long. The club has already lost JC Ramirez for the year, while there’s increasing concern for Matt Shoemaker.
It therefore seems that depth, more than quality, is a concern in the rotation. But what about that bullpen?
Areas of need and resources
The Halos’ somewhat dodgy relief unit leads to worry that the club won’t capture as many winnable contests as possible. Keynan Middleton had been effective (more so than his peripherals) but now seems destined to miss a big chunk of time. Blake Parker has continued to excel after his surprising 2017 showing, while Noe Ramirez is quietly breaking out (his peripherals are better than his 3.80 ERA). Jose Alvarez has been a solid southpaw presence. And veteran Jim Johnson is another useful arm to have around. But that’s not an overly impressive group of leading bullpen lights. Cam Bedrosian has come crashing back to earth; Justin Anderson is getting loads of whiffs but also doling out too many walks and dingers.
There’s little question, then, that the Angels are going to be prowling the waiver wire for arms over the next ten weeks. And they’ll likely be among the most relief-needy teams at this summer’s trade deadline. The club could justifiably target high-quality, high-leverage assets as well as useful middle-relief arms … to say nothing of whatever the needs in the rotation will be come July.
Otherwise, perhaps, there may not be much work to be done unless an injury intervenes. It’s certainly possible that the front office could weigh an outfield addition, but it’s hard to imagine Calhoun and Young will continue to be this bad. And relatively unknown reserve Jefry Marte has been on fire out of the gates, helping to ease the situation. While Pujols likely isn’t going anywhere, Valbuena is an increasing concern in his own right; he’s now striking out more and walking less than ever. With the possibility of some quality bats being available for little, it’s not inconceivable that the Angels could at some point jettison Valbuena and reduce Pujols’s role to fit another player on the roster.
With an improving farm system, GM Billy Eppler has an increasing slate of prospect assets from which to trade. Of course, he’ll surely be hesitant to part with any of the team’s most treasured young players. It seems likely the Angels will attempt to utilize their financial flexibility to the extent possible. With nearly $25MM in space beneath the luxury line, there is some room to work with. But there are limits to how much talent you can get without giving up talent in return. The organization could well end up facing some tough questions over the summer.
Outlook
All things considered, the Angels have performed up to expectations and seem to be positioned to continue to do so. That said, the club is somewhat more exposed to injury risk than others and may need to be creative to land mid-season improvements given that it is still rebuilding its talent pipeline.
jdgoat
Did they ever lick out with Ohtani or what? He’d be getting over 150 million if the old rules were still in effect, right?
Jeff Todd
I think he’d have taken down more than that in a truly free bidding situation. (Even before this impressive early showing.)
HaloShane
Sounds like a pretty okay team that’s built like tissue paper. Best of luck to you Angel fans.
angels fan 3
Thanks
angels fan 3
Best of luck to whatever team you like
Thurman8er
Thanks!
GeoKaplan
I wish you health and happiness under your bridge.
madmanTX
Lol Angels fans thanking a guy who insulted their team.
hale ofann
thing is hes not wrong though, however most agree that stars like trout and ohtani coupled with younger pieces like jefry marte, blake parker, andrew heaney, keynan middleton, andrelton simmons, and kole calhoun as well as strong veteran presences like cozart, kinsler, pujols and upton make for a more great than good team
sidewinder11
A trade for Alex Colome seems to make a ton of sense for this team. Tampa isn’t going to realistically content in the AL east for the next couple of years. The Angels need a closer and Colome would be worth the prospects since they look like contenders for at least the next few seasons
angelsinthetroutfield
Dont forget about Kelvin Herrera. KC is a clear seller and he’ll surely be available at the deadline
xabial
Angels’ GM Billy Eppler earning his pay. A+ job so far.
stubby66
I think he has done a very good job. I would like them see if they could add Kyle Wren as a fourth outfielder.i think could be a spark plug to a team like this. Maybe even look in Ryan Cordell of the White Sox. Colome would be a good add. I think Marlins have a couple of bullpen arms that could be gotten too
matanzas1962
Raised Iglesias(Reds) will be a better choice, if they can make the deal.
KingRyan227
.256 with 6HR and 21 RBI out of Pujols isn’t horrible at all it is definitely serviceable I think you ripped on Albert a little too much here.
theroyal19
I don’t get why people rip on Albert so much. I get it that he doesn’t put up numbers like he used to but he’s still able to hit 25 homeruns and drive in 100. Sure the ratios and underlying stats aren’t great but you know what you’re getting
matanzas1962
In the last 4 years Pujols has averaged 30.5 home runs & 102 RBI. On the other hand, the golden boy of OBP, Joey Votto, a good player, has averaged 25 Home runs and 71.5 RBI in the last 4 years. That includes 2017 which was an excellent year.
Getting on Base is a THREAT. Driving in Runs is PRODUCTION!!!!
AidanVega123
Please tell me you didn’t just imply that Pujols has been a better player than Votto…
davidcoonce74
Hmm. I wonder if Trout batting in front of him might have something to with that….
jdgoat
He’s a below average hitter and hitting is his only job. 93 ops plus is awful for his expectations/contract
Jeff Todd
He’s a highly-paid, below-average hitter who plays first base, in a world in which above-average-hitting first basemen struggle to get MLB contracts. True, he’s also an all-time great. I’m not hating on him or ripping on him, just stating what the numbers show. Dingers and ribbies don’t make up for the piddling overall output.
stubby66
Ok here is a question for if the Dodgers eat almost all of Matt Kemps salarywould he be a good pick up for the Amgels?
Bocephus
Why do Dodgers fans want to get rid of Kemp their most productive hitter?
imindless
Question is why would the stuggling dodgers trade there best hitter? And eat all his salary? Lol
mlb1225
Yea, Pujols is still an ok player, but it’s the price tag that really brings it down.
brucewayne
You gotta look at the age thing for Pujols ! He is supposed to be 6 years older than what he states. So that would make him around 43. LoL
xabial
Rumored, but unconfirmed. This ain’t TMZ Lol
davidcoonce74
Ive read two years, with mostly anecdotal evidence. I doubt he could pull off six years. Plus, his decline would even be worse.
hk27
Not a bad hitter for an old guy and making good bit of money for the Angels well beyond his production, thanks to his legendary career record,, so one can’t rip on him for being on the roster, but. he is not really #4 hitter in the lineup and hasn’t been one for years. The trouble is that moving an old legend off of the heart of the order is not easy.
Brett Hamilton
The problem is is that they can’t beat the good teams
record vs teams below .500 – 16-4
record vs .500 and above – 9-14
They need some help.
GT Dhillon
I think you have to look at how they are playing against the better teams.
Outside of the debacle at the hands of the Red Sox (when Boston was on fire and thrashed the Halos in a 3 game series), the Angels have been playing VERY competitive baseball against these teams. A couple of clutch hits or better bullpen management (who intentionally walks the go ahead run?) and they could easily have a much better record against 500+ teams.
Early in the season, you have to capitalize on beating the teams you’re supposed to…and the Angels are.
xabial
Weren’t they swept by the Yankees in a 3 game series. 6 losses, and 2 sweeps, right there.
Don’t get me wrong, this a good team, with a bright future, talent, and a GM who’s been magic, but can’t believe they’ve been this bad against .500 or better teams.
macstruts
They are not losing to good teams, they are losing to great teams. The Angels and Indians may be the only “good” teams in the American League. Three are great, I still think Cleveland is good, and every other team is horrible or bad or mediocre.
macstruts
The Angels obvious need this last off-season was the bullpen. After Shields left, Scioscia has never handled the bullpen well and no one needs quality RPs more than him. Why Eppler didn’t address this in the off-season is beyond me.
hk27
Arms in the Angels bullpen are not bad overall–in fact most are quite solid and useful. The problem is that none of them is a real “closer” material. Then again, there aren’t many “true closer” arms left in the league so that plenty of teams have suboptimal relievers in the closing role. Angels are not worse than most of these teams as far as bullpen is concerned, but most of the teams with suboptimal closers aren’t trying to contend either…
imindless
This article seems apprehensive to give credit where credit is due. Like a very glass have empty outlook…. A. Angels have rebuilt farm b. a winning team 25 million under the salary cap. If you expect a regression from simmons you dont watch him play and that he has improved each year at the dish. You sit there an make the teams outlook look bleak at best with questions following all of there positives and overvaluing there negatives (injuries which most teams have) Despite all the hoopla they received for signing ohtani this team has clawed its way a couple games behind the champs in a division most thought they would run away with (couple of late game collapse and would be in first) Not an angels fan but the hate they receive is outstanding league wide like there talent isnt good enough top to bottom despite good to great production from no name players. Eppler is a gem and I hope it continues.
Jeff Todd
Not sure why you read it that way, but I don’t think their outlook is bleak at all. I think they are the favorite to get the second Wild Card in the AL.
As for Simmons, he has never before finished a season as more than an average hitter. It’s a fantastic start, to be sure, but the smart money is on him coming back to earth rather than continuing to produce at roughly the career level of Miguel Cabrera.
flabbit
Realmuto or Swihart would be a good pickup
Caseys.Partner
Ian Kinsler .598 OPS
Cesar Hernandez .810 OPS
ryanw-2
They were never going to get Cesar.
GeoKaplan
That’s right, Ryan. Some folks want to litigate the past.
Anyone who observes Eppler knows intellectually he checked in on Hernandez (as did many others, I’m sure). The Phillies had their price, and no team paid it.
The situation can be revisited at any time, but the Phillies aren’t acting like a rebuild club anxious to stockpile prospects.
angelsinthetroutfield
If we got Hernandez we wouldn’t have couple of the SPs who have played so well thus far. I’d rather have Kinsler/Heaney/Barria than Cesar
Caseys.Partner
No, you would be missing a couple of those outfield prospects.
The Angels are going to need Cesar as the year goes on. Cesar’s OBP and speed stay strong.
One of Cesar’s HR was 440 feet with an EV of 112
GeoKaplan
Every team looking for a good 2B had to have checked with Klentak, who knows much of the Angels farm system intimately from his time as Dipoto’s assistant.
Eppler asks, “how much?”, Klentak states his price, and that is the end of that. Apparently, the same with any other team, since no trade was made. Doesn’t seem the Phillies were trading Hernandez unless it was an overpay.
angelsinthetroutfield
Hmm all the reports I read indicated PHI wanted young SPs (particularly LHP). They have a overabundance of OF as it
angelsinthetroutfield
Hmm all the reports I read indicated PHI wanted young SPs (particularly LHP). They have an overabundance of OFs in their system as it is so you think they would diversify their return with some arms as well.
Don’t get me wrong I love Cesar and would love to have him be a Halo for years to come. I just don’t think the end would justify the means in that scenario.
Caseys.Partner
I followed this site through the entire offseason and never once saw a report of the Phillies looking for pitchers in return for Cesar.
The Phillies have three 1st round pick outfielders on their farm and none of them are doing anything.
angler
I’d love to see Simmons back in a Braves uni as they are about to get good here for a few years. Angels could slide Cozart to natural position. What would get it done??
darkangel
the Angels’ biggest issue is their skill in getting starters and closers enrolled on the DL with TJ surgery the preferred qualifier. all good young talent ought best to avoid any association with this organization or else risk their career.