In a chat with Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, Phillies hurler Jake Arrieta verified prior reports that Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein made a last-ditch offer before the team agreed to terms with Yu Darvish.
Arrieta, who ultimately signed with the Philadelphia organization later in the winter, tells Wittenmyer that he does not really believe that Epstein expected to get a deal done when he called with a “take it or leave it” proposal of six years and $120MM. That statement reflects previous reporting on the perceptions of both sides to that conversation.
While he emphasized that he harbors no ill will at all toward Epstein or the Cubs organization, Arrieta says that approach was a non-starter, even though he had yet to receive a formal contract offer to that point:
“[T]hey weren’t willing to negotiate at all, and that wasn’t acceptable for me,” Arrieta tells Wittenmyer. “I bet on myself just like I have my entire career and ended up getting a good deal.”
Arrieta, of course, is referring to the three-year, $75MM guarantee he took down from the Phils. He obviously preferred the higher average annual value but also emphasized in his comments that he expects to play longer than that in Philadelphia. Arrieta’s deal includes a provision that allows the Phillies to add on two years at a salary of $20MM or more (depending upon escalators) per season.
The veteran hurler certainly exuded confidence in his chat with Wittenmyer, which is well worth a full read. Among other things, he discussed his leadership efforts with the Phillies and flatly rejected the idea that there’s any concern with how he’ll age — or how his velocity will hold up — over the course of his new contract. To the contrary, Arrieta suggests his new organization will receive an exceptional player. “There’s not many like me,” he tells Wittenmyer. “… I don’t care what the situation is, I bet on myself to get the job done.”
Hen1CHC
Not a chance his next few years will be worth 6/120$ he and Boras were foolish not to instantly take that from Chicago.
GoCubsGo
It technically can be a 5/$125 deal if it gets completely maxed out. He’s betting on himself to be able to do that. I personally don’t think he will get there, but he’s always been a bet on himself kind of guy, so it makes sense for him.
joshua.barron1
Folks, the darkish contract guarantees $126mm/6 years with incentives to push the contract to a max of $150mm. Bottom line is Arrieta left $51mm of guaranteed money on the table as well as reduced the ceiling of his earnings by $25mm with that decision, albeit over 1-3 fewer seasons.
Even if he wins the cy young every year for the next 5 years, he still would have been better off taking the cubs offer. Fact
jbigz12
Uhhhhh no. He still will likely get a deal in FA In the next 3 years. It’s hard to project and 6/120 is certainly better than 3/75 by most estimations but if Arrieta is a cy young quality pitcher for 3 years he’ll end up with more than 6/120 in total. If he’s the pitcher he has been in the past he’d have no problem getting 3/60+ again. That’s a sizable gamble for an older pitcher though.
joshua.barron1
Sorry but are you aware that the Phillies hold a team option over him for years 4 and 5 if he pitches well? If he pitches well he won’t be a free agent. If he pitches poorly, he gets his $75mm and then goes to the scrap heap.
A gamble should allow you to come ahead, not just break even if EVERYTHING goes right
jobusrum9
I’m not sure you read the article.
Right there in the middle of the article in black and white it specifically says how much he will get from the Phillies if they excerxise his options. It’s $20mil per year for 2 years at a minimum. If he pitches well as the op suggested then those options years are worth even more.
From here all we need is simple math skills.
3/75 + 1/20 + 1/20= 5/115
5/115 + (escalators) $5mil per season based on starts, $5mil per season based on Cy Young voting equals a grand total of 5/135
5/135>6/120
Idk what the exact numbers are that he needs to hit for starts or where he needs to finish in cy young voting to get those escalators to kick in, but I’m willing to bet if he’s pitching well enough in years 4 and 5 to come close to those escalators he and the Phillies would probably just work out a contract extension so they can find a way to reduce his aav and tack on another year or 2.
joshua.barron1
Ok so you have your simple math skills down, but not simple reading skills. My first sentence reads “Folks, the darvish contract guarantees $126mm/6 years with incentives to push the contract to a max of $150mm”
If he meets ALL of the incentives to max out at 5/135 (I thought the contract maxed out at 5/125, but maybe I’m wrong), then he almost certainly would have met the same criteria to max out at 6/150 with the Cubs offer. So lets compare guaranteed dollars vs. incentives.
Cubs offer: 6/126 guaranteed, maxes out at 6/150
Phillies offer: 3/75 guaranteed, maxes out at 5/135
In what world is $51mm less guaranteed and a $15mm lower earnings ceiling (granted, over 1-3 fewer years) not just an EQUAL contract offer, but a BETTER offer for a 32 year old pitcher?
If you pass on 6/126, you damn well better have 4/110 or 3/100 (GUARANTEED) out there because the contract he signed with the Phillies is significantly more team friendly than the one the Cubs were offering.
*mic drop*
Tmandolfan
It isn’t like the Cubs are getting great value from Darvish either. The fact is that teams who sign pitchers for $100mil or more very rarely do.
Caseys.Partner
“The fact is that teams who sign pitchers for $100mil or more very rarely do.”
Actually you have that backwards. It’s that next tier down, the Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Ricky Nolasco type of pitcher who delivers nothing or almost nothing for the four or five years he signs for.
If you aren’t going for the Arrieta or higher than the next place to shop is the one year deal guys looking for a rebound.
Jockstrapper
Comment in September, doofus.
wgfinley
Like Lester right?
bigjonliljon
As a cubs fan…. so glad he did not
CubsRebsSaints
I preferred Arrieta yo Darvish the entire time. Especially @ 3 years! Theo n Jed can say they wanted Darvish all along.
The truth is, they weren’t willing to battle with Boras and go over 25m per season and up I 175-200m dollar contract. If they had known they could keep Arrieta for 3 years and 75 million?!!? They would jumped all over having only a 3 year commitment to age 35.
themed
Yeah Darvish deal is really looking silly for the cubs now
Priggs89
“If they had known they could keep Arrieta for 3 years and 75 million?!!? They would jumped all over having only a 3 year commitment to age 35.“
Maybe that’s why teams tend to negotiate with agents instead of saying, “Here’s our only offer. Take it or leave it.” Quite the strategy.
themed
Really? You like the Darvish signing better huh?
justinept
3-$75. Maxes out at 5-$125. If he pitches well, then the options will get picked up and he’ll outearn the Cubs offer.
And if the Phils don’t pick up the options, he’ll need a 3-$45 deal to equal the Cubs offer. Comp that to the 2-$36 deal Lackey received in 2016, and it’s not that far fetched that he should, at a minimum, be able to match the total money offered by the Cubs in time.
carlos15
The Darvish deal is already a huge mistake
anthony rizzo
No it’s not. Darvish’s poor start can be attributable entirely to the horrible weather the Cubs have had to play through. It’s way to early to say it’s a mistake to sign yu.
themed
How was the weather today? Face dumb huge mistake
elicopner
Mistake by Arrieta to not take the 120m and okay for a championship caliber team. Good move by the phils, they’re paying for the 3 years and will drop him and his “leadership” and hubris quicker than a hummingbirds wings on a nice summers day.
Z-A 2
Sorry but the Phil’s will decline after 3 years. Not going to willfully pay a 35/36 yr old pitcher 20M per season. He may get some offers but expect them to be much much less. James Shields is that cautionary tale.
TheMick
The difference you’re missing in that comparison is Shields pitched 700+ more innings than Arrieta at the time they entered free agency.
Dave 32
Stay in school kids, actually attend your classes and learn things. This is a prime example of someone who went to college for baseball, probably didn’t learn much and does not understand the value of money.
If you’re somehow of the idea that 15 million dollars matters more than 60 million dollars, you don’t understand some basic financial concepts. Yes he took a higher AAV in the short term, but you have to be an idiot to believe that somehow you’re going to be the guy who is suddenly in demand at age 34+ as a pitcher in the post-PED era of baseball. It’ll be even worse for a guy at 34 than 31. His agent lucked out though, getting that better short-term deal knowing he ain’t gonna get a long term one later.
If there was 6/120 on the table, Arietta was a fool for not taking it and his agent should be ashamed. Especially since it was the Cubs, who would maybe be upset but not that upset if he gets on a decline in his later years since he got them their World Series. (see also: the unending support for a clearly in decline Adam Wainright from Cardinals fans despite last year clearly being in a spot where the team needed to move on from him).
jleve618
You are forgetting the time value of money.
dugdog83
His arm will be shot in 3 years and his hand will only have one ring on it.
Caseys.Partner
If Arrieta doesn’t opt out he’ll have a second ring.
camdenyards46
What
camdenyards46
Are you saying he will get a ring with the Phillies
GabeOfThrones
Or can opt out of a team option?
dm038
He is just trying to justify why he took less money and made it look like his idea. He blew it by not taking cubs offer
Dark_Knight
He really didn’t. Even if he’s a 1 year guy after 3 years he’s still probably looking at AAVs of $10-15 million. If he signs 3 1 year $15 million contracts he’s matched what was offered
Cam
I was going to say one in he hand, two in the bush. But in reality, he needs to justify an extra contract or 3 just to break even.
He had the money up front, but decided to gamble, with the reward being exactly what he would have been guaranteed initially.
Same theory as someone offering me 20 bucks up front for an old but working TV, then me saying no, I’ll take 10 up front, and flip a coin for the remaining 10.
dewssox79
the yu darvish “blame it on the rain” tune is so dumb. he isnt that great of a pitcher.
themed
He’s awful
Cam
5 starts into the contract and Cubs fans are already inconsolable.
I guess that Heyward contract has conditioned y’all to expect the worst.
Djones246890
I doubt he’s a Cubs fan, but generally speaking, Cubs fans are extremely hard to please, and expect the team to win all 162 games.
They watch each game as if it’s the final game of the World Series, and they watch baseball games like each game is as important as a football game — which only has 16 games per year.
Folks, it’s baseball. It’s a long/grinding season. You’re NOT going to win every single game.
Cubbie75
DJones it’s not just Cubs fans. I follow other other teams and fans are like that in general, especially the ones who take to social media the most. Lots of Cubs fans are patient but what’s to mouth off about that?
wgfinley
Definitely wish Jake the best, he will always be a World Champion Cub but I think the Cubs made the right move. Jake can be a dominating pitcher and then he loses his release point (often in the same game and even inning he was once dominating) and then the wheels fall off in a hurry. There’s no room for mistakes with his mechanics which leads me to believe it’s not sustainable long-term.
ludafish
You are right about his release point. My crappy (although better lately) Marlins beat him up last night and you can see him get rattled a bit. I still think Philly made the right move getting him as aside from Nola they don’t have much. But Philly is on the up and up and they have soooooo much money they can spend this off-season. In a year or two he can be the 3rd or 4th starter on one of the top teams in baseball. On the same note the Cubs are young and also cash rich so…..should be interesting.
themed
Nope cubs made a huge mistake letting him get away. Huge
Cam
They offered him 6/120, when the next best offer looks to have been 3/75.
What more did you expect the Cubs to do? Give him Theos first born?
jbigz12
maybe not present the offer as take it or leave it. Most guys don’t like to be rubbed the wrong way even though that offer was certainly fair. Maybe he could’ve came in a little lower and Jake and co. could’ve negotiated his way up to 6/120 if it would’ve even taken that much. it’s not all about what you’re offering it’s how it’s offered.
its_happening
Theo gave his first and second born to Heyward.
Priggs89
Oh how easily that gets ignored… Maybe money isn’t the only factor? Maybe coming in with an elitist attitude turns some people off? Maybe not everybody worships the ground the Cubs front office walks on? Just a thought.
CubsRebsSaints
So we can agree that the Cubs and Arrieta were both foolish for not continuing their relationship?? “If it ain’t broke”
CubsRebsSaints
Darvish is garbage. He’s getting bashed around again! For someone to have “such an Arsenal” he sure doesn’t play like he’s equipped! In other news, Maddon leading Rizzo off was simply a move to jump start the slugging first baseman. Such a move was made easier by his tendency to homer from the leadoff spot. It’s almost like clockwork! In small samples of course. Maddon knows this and will keep it in his back pocket as a jump starter tool for Big Riz, and the rest of the team as well!
He’s about to get hot.
Darvish still stinks. Go Cubs Go!
mike156
He’s entitled to bet on himself. His problem is that he doesn’t realize that if he’s the kind of good that would have earned him a big contract in that Year 6, the Phillies would have bought out the more valuable years 4 and 5 for $40M. If he’s not, he’s got $75M for three years, and then he’s looking for a big deal for his age 35, 36, and 37 years. This year’s FA market would lead one to wonder whether a 35 year old, maybe 2 WAR player could get a 3 year deal at an AAV of $15M. So, he’s not really betting on himself–he’s betting on that 5th year being good enough to score one more big deal.
Tom E. Snyder
If Jack had gone to the Astros he could pitch 5 years and get better with age. (see Verlander, Justin; Morton, Charlie)
slowcurve
Arrieta seems like a bit of a tool, no?
lucienbel
Agreed.
themed
No he is not. Just a very good pitcher that the cubs will kick themselves for years for letting him get away
Priggs89
Par for the course for Jake.
dewssox79
I thought Darvish was bad because of bad weather….seems nice today out here! and still sucks!
themed
No he’s just bad and enormously over paid.
dewssox79
agreed
themed
The cubs actually do better trying to tank than they do recognizing free agent talent. Heyward now Darvish
rememberthecoop
Unless he’s back on the juice, I doubt he will ever be anywhere near the player he was in his Cy Young season, but man what a year that was. The second half of that season was as good as any in history. Every time he went to the mound, I expected a no-hitter.
jorge78
Theo didn’t do so well with massive FA contracts in Boston and now Chicago. But he wins titles. OK cool…..
Cubbie Steve
Bet on himself all he wants. The Cubs fixed him and made him successful.
His delivery—throwing across his body—does not make it easy, mechanically, for his arm to hold up or for him to maintain command. We already saw a dip in velocity and a complete loss of control at times in the past.
Djones246890
God, this guy is such a little drama queen. You bet on yourself and LOST….big time. This guy’s problem has always been that big ego-filled balloon head can’t fit through the Holland Tunnel.
Priggs89
Funny how his ego is now a giant issue when he’s not with the Cubs. He has always come off as a tool to most non-Cubs fans, but every time it got mentioned, Cubs fans felt the need to talk about how great of a guy he was and how he was such a hard worker and blah blah blah. Funny how quickly things change.
anson's cap
Doesn’t anyone remember Arrieta opening negotiations with, “No hometown discounts” and the Cubs staff rescuing his career from the scrapheap?
All of the numbers discussed here is more money than any person and their family members can sanely spend in their lifetimes, if managed properly.
Arrieta’s comments only rationalize his egotistic and ungrateful actions.