With one day left in April, we’ve already seen a wide gulf emerge within the American League standings. Three clubs (the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros) are on pace to surpass 105 wins, while six teams are also currently on pace to win fewer than 70 games. By comparison, only six teams in all of baseball failed to surpass the 70-win plateau in 2017.
Obviously, it’s still very early, and there’s plenty of baseball still to be played for these struggling teams. Three teams, however, will head into May in the basement of their respective divisions, and in those cases, a slower start could be much harder to overcome. The Rangers, Royals, and Orioles all faced rather tricky paths to contention even in the best of circumstances, and their poor April records may force them to make some hard decisions about how long they’re willing to go before considering selling pieces at the trade deadline.
Let’s check in on the three last-place teams to see which has the most potential to make April simply a “slow start” en route to a respectable or even a contending season…
Rangers (11-18): With Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Rougned Odor all on the disabled list, Texas fans are beginning to have some unpleasant flashbacks to the team’s disastrously injury-plagued 2014 campaign. Still, while the injury bug explains the lack of offensive production, the Rangers’ pitching situation has looked as shaky as it appeared to be heading into the season. Other than the surprise continuation of Bartolo Colon’s late-career renaissance, it’s been mostly bad news for both the rotation and the bullpen, with Martin Perez, Matt Moore, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, and Kevin Jepsen all getting off to particularly tough starts.
The team’s big infield trio may not all be back until June, so can the Rangers at least tread water until then? It doesn’t help that the rest of the AL West teams are all at the .500 mark or better, though the Angels (+5), Mariners (-2), and A’s (+3) are all nothing special in terms of run differential. (Of course, Texas is a miserable -39 in that department.) The Rangers will need more arms to step up if they are to turn their season around, plus some internal reinforcements have already come in the form of Delino DeShields and Tony Barnette, who are both back after lengthy DL stints of their own. Top prospect Willie Calhoun could also provide more help for the lineup, though Calhoun is off to a quiet start at Triple-A this year.
Orioles (8-20): The Orioles and Rangers share pretty similar tales of woe. Baltimore has also been hurt by a tough division, a lack of quality starting or relief pitching, plus several key injuries — Zach Britton and Mark Trumbo have yet to play a game, while Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, and Colby Rasmus are all on the DL. Manny Machado’s individual brilliance has been tempered by a lack of hitting from almost everyone else on roster, with Chris Davis standing out as the single worst position player by fWAR (-0.6) in baseball so far this season.
Dan Duquette unofficially cited Memorial Day as the date when teams begin to evaluate where they really stand in a season, so the O’s therefore have just under a month to get on track. That might be enough time to get at least some of the injured parties back, plus it’ll give time for Alex Cobb to hopefully start rounding into form given that the late-to-sign righty has a 13.11 ERA over his first three starts. On paper, Baltimore has too much hitting talent to be as bad as they are at the plate, so you figure that at least some type of positive correction is in store.
Royals (7-20): The Royals held off on a full-fledged rebuild over the winter, though their decision about whether to try for another playoff run may have been made for them by their lousy April. The Royals entered Sunday’s play with the fewest runs in the majors, as only Mike Moustakas and Jorge Soler were putting up good numbers at the plate, and some quality returns by the starting rotation have been undermined by arguably baseball’s worst bullpen. Even with closer Kelvin Herrera still boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA through 9 2/3 innings, the road to Herrera has been plagued by potholes, as the relief corps is collectively at or near the bottom of the list in just about every major statistic.
One bright side for the Royals? Their competition. The AL Central has been baseball’s worst division through the first month, with the first-place Indians holding just a 14-12 record. As bad as Kansas City has been, the Royals are still just 4.5 games back of the second-place Tigers. Since the White Sox and Tigers are rebuilding and the Twins are struggling to recapture their 2017 form, there is some opportunity for the Royals to regain some ground if they can beat up on their division foes.
Which of the AL’s last-place squads do you think has the best chance of recovering from its shaky April? (Link for app users)
Is “none of the above” an option?
My exact thoughts. Stick a fork in each of them, they’re toast
I picked the Rangers simply because there wasn’t a “none of the above” option, but I don’t see them really making any kind of run either. They just don’t have the pitching depth and their 2 best hitters (Beltre and Andrus) are on the DL. By the time they return it won’t be enough to overcome their shaky pitching.
I was hoping for ‘other’
It seems more likely that a fictional team will be more successful.
Rangers. I still believe in them
Just want to point out, everyone was making fun of Bartolo Colon signing.
In 6 games, 4 starts, Colon has a 2.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP (3BB-21K) in 31.1 IP.
Who knows if the soon-to-be 45 year old can keep up this pace, but I believe Rangers won’t waste his performance and they’ll catch on fire when Andrus returns.
I think it is unlikely Bartolo “big sex” Colon will win the Cy Young this year with a 2.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
Off-topic. Everyone was saying he was washed up and done and people wanted him (probably still want him) to retire.
Hello? You say “who knows if he can keep up pace”. You ask Bartolo big sex get 2.87 ERA? I say most likely not. He slightly chubby old man. I think he not going to be this good.
When did he ever claim that Colon would win the Cy Young?
Squeezeme? He imply it! He say I wonder if Bartolo can keep up pace of 2.87 ERA. If Bartolo get 2.87 ERA in America league, he bettuh win thy Cy Young’s award.
I never said 2.87 ERA would be good enough to win it. And honestly, don’t think he’ll keep up this pace. You’re the one bringing up Cy Young.
Ok. I thought you would enjoy some madness because MAD is your profile picture.
What are you talking about? Can people stop with the schticks on here? Nobody wants to read your crap or the obvious trolls that don’t add anything of value
Please stop.
Have you ever been to Texas in the summer? It is scorching hot here and since the Rangers have an open air stadium I expect Colon will start to struggle once the weather gets really hot. I am pulling for the guy, but he isn’t exactly in the best of shape.
He’s 4 starts into the season. relax.. still plenty of time for everyone to still make fun of the signing. and oh yes the South Oklahoma Rangers are done. stick a fork in em.. spread butter on em.. they’re finished.
Excuse me? The TEXAS Rangers.
You must be an Astro’s fan I can smell you from here
Colon is a philthy ped user.
And is more then likely using now
Notta!
Most likely? Texas
In general though, I dont think any.
I think the AL Playoff is pretty close to set barring any absurd injuries
Boston- East
Cleveland- Cent.
Houston- West
Two of Angels/Mariners/Yanks W/C
I think the Jays are a good team but would be better off selling pieces on one year deals than trading prospects to help them compete this year. They have a very good farm system, but trading Donaldson, Happ, Axford, Estrada, Grandy, Jaime and Clippard could make the system top 3.
The A’s look good, but arent there yet
The rest of the AL looks abysmal.
Jays have close to zero pitching in the farm system with only 2 starters under contract (Sanchez and Stromero – that was written on-purpose).
Like I said, they aren’t one of the top systems in the game right now, however a system that has Vlad Jr, Bichette , Alford, Jansen, Borucki and McGuire should at least be considered pretty good.
If they did sell this season, however, they could really boost it.
I agree with you on Oakland. They are definitely a team on the rise. It is a shame for them they lost both Cotton and Puk due to TJ surgery. They were my sleeper team to contend for a WC spot before the season began. I still think they will hang around the periphery of WC contention, but their future looks good.
The Yanks don’t win the wild card. They win the east! They win it by plenty too.
They won’t go top3 by selling Donaldson and happ. The rest of the players you listed wouldn’t bring back anymore than mid tier prospects, certainly not enough to vault them into the top 3. If they sold stroman happ Donaldson, Estrada, and Osuna. Then yeah you’d see them in the top 3 but we all know that won’t happen.
I think Texas is the most talented, but I think Kansas City has the best chance to get out of the cellar. This is mainly due to the competition in the division.
I think the problem with picking the Royals here is Dayton will probably have to trade anyone who is performing by the deadline and we’ll be playing AAAA players the rest of the year. Moose, Duffy, Herrera, Jay, hell even Soler if he keeps up how he’s been hitting will all likely be gone.
The expansion Portland Pretzels. Even though they won’t be a team until 2030. I think they can turn it around this season.
Gutter teams all season.
They all stink.
Texas still has a chance but the American League West looks tough. They will need some players to step up if they want to hang within their division
Orioles actually have a potentially very strong and steady staff. Defense (along with how it impacts said staff) concerns me.
By “staff” I mean pitching staff.
Orioles will start winning more, but there will be a lot of 12-10 wins and such. Cobb and Cashner have added little-to-nothing and Tillman is still Tillman. When management finally admits that they can’;t win with just homers, they may turn things around.
They need to consider trading Machado during the trade deadline. Consider firing Buck. Then rebuilding that whole team
With good prospects. They are a long way off.
Cashner hasn’t been too bad really. If the offense can get going they could not be a bottom 5 team in the league, but I’d say at this point they’re no where near Boston andNew York, and will be sellers for sure at the deadline
If I had to pick it would be Baltimore. They have two above average starters in Gausman and Bundy, a decent starter in Cobb, and some talent on the offensive side of the ball.
None of the above
I think the Rangers have the most sound roster of any team on the list, but they have exactly zero chance to go anywhere in their division.
Why would you stick a fork in toast?
Excellent point. I mean, is the toast on a plate or, God forbid, still in the toaster? Too many variables. This is a real safety issue.
French toast maybe?
Cultured people eat their toast with a fork
You mean stuck-up pretentious snobs who think they are better than everyone else? Those types ?
Are you making fun of Red Sox fans?
These teams aren’t worthy of discussion. Kansas is particularly embarrassing I noticed they have Ryan going starting LOL.
They’re all destined to be selecting in the top 10 in next years draft, but I chose KC because their division is terribad
There all pretty bad but Baltimore takes the cake. That pitching staff is bad enough to make a old woman cry. How the FO ever thought that this team could be a contender is absurd. This team should of started tearing it down in 2016. That Chris Davis contract is an albatross that the orioles couldn’t even afford with all the deferred money. The hideous contracts of Jimemanz,and other lower mid level pitchers were disgusting. Garbage…and I’m not even a oriole fan.