The Twins and center fielder Byron Buxton have mutual interest in a contract extension, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. The two sides have discussed a new pact, Bowden hears (Twitter link), though Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets that there’s “no traction yet on a multiyear deal.” Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN adds that “no deal is close” (via Twitter)
The Twins aren’t in any imminent danger of losing the 24-year-old Buxton, who’s controllable for the next four seasons. He’s slated to play his final pre-arbitration year in 2018, during which he’ll attempt to build on a breakout season. An integral component of a Twins team that unexpectedly won 85 games and earned a wild-card berth in 2017, Buxton accounted for 3.5 fWAR on the strength of world-class defense, tremendous baserunning and a passable bat.
As a defender, Buxton finished first in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (25), third in Defensive Runs Saved (24) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (9.9). Offensively, Buxton posted a below-average 90 wRC+ (.253/.314/.413 in 511 PAs), but he was hugely effective at the plate in the second half of the season and also cut his strikeout rate significantly compared to 2016 (35.6 percent to 29.4). When Buxton did get on base last year, he made life miserable for the opposition. Not only was Buxton caught just once on 30 steal attempts, but he led the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
If 2017 is an indication of what’s to come from Buxton, he’ll continue to be a cornerstone for the Twins, which is what they had in mind when they selected him second overall in the 2012 draft. Buxton continued to draw major fanfare after the draft, but he was overmatched during a 138-PA debut with Minnesota in 2015 and then struggled offensively during the first half of 2016.
Although Buxton has hardly been consistent offensively, his speed and defense combine to give him a high floor. As such, even if he never puts it together at the plate over a full season, he figures to continue serving as a valuable player. It’s no surprise the Twins seemingly want him around for a while, then, and if they do continue seeking a long-term pact, recently extended center fielders Ender Inciarte (Braves) and Odubel Herrera (Phillies) stand out as somewhat comparable.
Both Inciarte (2.157 years) and Herrera (2.000) had similar service time to Buxton’s 2.064 when they received extensions last winter. And like Buxton, Herrera was entering his final pre-arb season and had four more years of control left. Inciarte also had four years remaining, but he was already about to go through arbitration for the first time. His deal bought out three potential free agent years, whereas Herrera’s bought out two.
Unfortunately for Buxton, both Inciarte and Herrera had shown more offensively at the time of their extensions. Inciarte, who was 26 when he signed, landed a five-year, $30.525MM guarantee after hitting .292/.337/.385 (95 wRC+) with 13 home runs, 56 steals and 9.5 fWAR over the first 1,586 PAs of his career. Herrera, who was approaching his 26th birthday, reeled in roughly the same guarantee as Inciarte (five years, $30.5MM) after slashing .291/.353/.419 (110 wRC+) with 23 homers, 41 steals and 7.7 fWAR in 1,193 PAs.
To this point, Buxton has taken 980 trips to the plate and batted a less-than-stellar .237/.295/.406 (84 wRC+) with 28 HRs, 41 steals and 4.6 fWAR. But if you discount a disastrous promotion in 2015 in which Buxton logged an unsightly batting line (.209/.250/.326, 53 wRC+) and accounted for minus-0.6 fWAR, you have a player who has been worth 3.9 fWAR per 600 PAs. That happens to be in lockstep with the pre-extension figures Inciarte (3.6) and Herrera (3.9) recorded.
Buxton gonna rob them for a second time
Maybe, maybe not. He could be signed for not a great deal of money and come into form. Even if he doesn’t he’s a great fielder with amazing speed, not such a bad thing to have.
He’s a 5 win player and that’s with a below average bat. Just think what he’ll be like when he finally puts it all together
He was a 5 win player for one season. That doesn’t make him a consistent 5 win player.
That’s like saying Eric Hosmer is a 4 win player.
You’re only as good as your last season, right?
Therefore he deserves a Hosmer-type deal? Lol
29-30 on stolen bases. The time he got out… he beat the throw and slid off the base.
That one time cost me money in my fantasy league. But it was awesome watching him rake the second half.
too early. way too early
I’m sure there were people who said the same about Mike Trout’s deal at the time… It’s never too early if the price is right.
I don’t think anyone on earth said that about trout. and comparing the two is insane to begin with
^^^THIS^^^
For a Sano or Berrios, yes. For Buxton I would extend ASAP.
His defense alone makes him an elite CF. He’ll probably never be cheaper than he is right now. His bat still has more room to improve. The longer the wait on the extension, the more expensive he’ll become.
I’m always surprised by the number of people who don’t seem to understand the risk/reward of signing a young player to an extension. The more a player proves themselves to be great, the more expensive they become. The best case scenario is to be able to anticipate their jump in productivity and sign them beforehand. If you wait until after their big breakout season, then you are going to be paying up the nose. Smaller market teams have to be smart about this stuff and take risks. They can’t afford to take risks on 200 million dollar free agents, but they can afford to take risks on extensions for their young players. Too soon can be better than too late
This is why the Twins would be silly locking up a guy like Lynn/Cobb, despite what the armchair GM’s in the Twin Cities have been calling for.
All this youth is going to eat into the payroll through arb alone in the coming years, let alone if they want to extend some of them.
The twins have like no long term money beyond 2018. They can easily afford a Lynn or Cobb
Every $10-15m per year they commit to a declining, 30-something Lynn/Cobb will prove to have been better spent on an extension for one of their many young in-house options.
Lock them up when you can.
Get it done before he becomes a slightly above average hitter and they’ll have one of the most valuable assets in baseball
If the price is right.
I’d be stoked if they signed a deal similar to Inciarte. It would end up being a steal for the twins. The kid doesn’t stop working. He hasn’t even approached his ceiling. I can see him hitting more home runs and having way more SB and Runs. He’s not going to be mike trout, but he has the ability to hit…. he just needs to do it consistently, and his defense is like the twins have four people in the outfield.
The twins need to make more early commitments. Imagine what a slightly extended Mauer deal would have done for them. He probably wouldn’t be on the team, and they would have saved $150 mil to spend elsewhere. Dozier is another case. They should have reworked his deal a year ago.
Let’s see an actual impressive offensive season before jumping the gun here. Obviously guys aren’t having the easiest time finding jobs right now, no sense in increased risk just because he’s a toolsy prospect.
An elite defender with 980 AB’s is a “toolsy prospect”?
You loose prospect status the same time your get rookie eligibility status is definite. Around 170 AB or two years ago for buck.
Seems like unless he’s ok with a well below market deal, you let him play his last pre-arb year and buy out his arm years and maybe a little more if he performs. This is how smaller market teams compete with the big market teams. Identifying talent early and locking them up early. You pay more up front, but the long term pay off is huge. This is how the rays were competitive 10 years ago with locking up guys like Longoria
His a keeper but its too early, i say wait till atleast the allstar break
Buxton has a higher ceiling and higher pedigree than either of the 2 comps, I would think those deals are non-starters for Buxton’s camp versus starting points or even floors, Buxton’s ceiling might be Mookie Betts as a player however due to the slow start to his career arbitration won’t be as kind to Buxton first time through arbitration as it was for Betts. Kevin Kiermaier might be another deal his side would point to as a reference
MIN should be ecstatic Buxton wants to sign an extension, a 6yr deal would buy out 2 FA years and Buxton’s age 24-29 seasons. At 3 yrs young than Kiemaier, his FA years should cost more but once again a player with a high floor and a high ceiling, if you don’t extend them then whom?
Maybe the Twins should ask the Cubs how they like Heyward and his contract. Now i understand he will not make as much as Heyward, but they are similar type of players.
They are not even close to the same players. Buxton could run circles around him in the outfield. Much better base running for buck, Heyward hasn’t come close. Buck should be a 100 run guy, Heyward will not do that in his career. Their averages might be comparable in the long run but nothing else. Saying similar in this case is saying they both play an outfield position. Sorry you couldn’t be more wrong.
And finding a comparison is hard. Not a steal heavy guy like billy Hamilton not a slugging base stealing guy like an early ellsbury. He’ll be more of a guy that people compare themselves to in the long run
I think it’s interesting how, after the current offseason free-agent environment/market, more than just one young player like Buxton has intimated they would be open to an extension for some financial security.
I have to wonder whether they see the market shifting and want to lock up some guaranteed money while they can.
From Buxton’s standpoint it makes perfect senses – coming off a 5.1 rWAR season (3.5 fWAR). He’s an awesome defender and baserunner.
Good for Buxton. He’s a good dude who’s very deserving of the long term deal to come.
Whatchhh you mean homey?
Buxton was a special player in high school, everyone knew that he stood out because of his raw tools. He still hasn’t put it all together, but Buxton could be a steal in the long haul for the twins if they extended him similarly to the Inciarte/Herrera deals. Buxton has a MUCH higher upside than either of those two.
Why is Kiermaier not mentioned? He was also between 2 and 3 years service time when he was extended, he was also arguably the best defensive CF in baseball when he was extended, he also did not have t he best reputation with the bat.
Comparing Buxton to the guys who got $30m extensions when he is more comparable to a guy that got a $50m extension is really weird and skews perspective on a possible extension for I don’t know what reason.
If the Twins could buy out as many years as the Rays did with Kiermaier I see and extension being about $60m. It goes up because Buxton is younger and so more premium years would be bought out and because he has a better prospect pedigree and so more cache and appearance of upside; it goes down because KK was super two and therefor projected to make more in his final four years of original control. So say $55m-$60m.
The Twins are not smaller market. This team could easily swing $130-140M in payroll if the Pohlads wanted to spend what they should.
Buxton isn’t remotely comparable to Kiermaier. Buxton SUUUUUUUUCKED for this first 2 years and while rWAR was really favorable at 5.1 wins last year, fWAR was a lot less kind with 3.5. Kiermaier was very good to outstanding in his first 2 seasons and consistently good in his WAR.
Buxton’s first and second year of arbitration are going to be severely hampered by his awful performances in his first two seasons.
I’m not saying the Twins shouldn’t lock Buxton up, but I would imagine Buxton’s camp isn’t stupid in regard to understanding this year could dramatically increase his value, but not so much they’re not really interested in a long term deal considering how injury prone Buxton is.
“If the Pohlads wanted to spend what they should”?
Bollocks. They spend 50-55% of revenues on payroll. That’s more than the Yankees. The “Twins owners are cheap” is a compete myth not backed up by the numbers. They maintain very respectable payroll given their revenue/market size, with a smaller profit margin than most high spending teams.
It’s always hilarious to see people comment, owner could spend x amount and should! Do you tell your landscaper he can afford to pay his employees more? No? Why? Stop telling successful people how to run THEIR business.
A landscaping company is a private business. Baseball teams get tons of taxpayer benefits and, yes they owe it to their fan bases to put a good product on the field.
The Twins’, revenue was $249 million last year, and if they weren’t one of the worst franchises in baseball for the better part of the last decade, the revenue would have been higher.
They’d be at $125-137 million in payroll at 50-55%. Like I said, the Twins can easily swing $130-$140M in payroll.
The market size is determined by the TV demographic size !
MSP is the 13th largest metro area in the country. Add in Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota and there’s a pretty well populated local area for TV. I wish people would actually spend a few minutes researching this stuff before making these comments. It’s not like the Twins are the Padres, Pirates, Royals or Rays or something…
Same logic that got Phil Hughes extended.
Agreed. Buxton was awful his first two season up. Probably due to his young age. It will hurt his first extension if he stays with the Twins.
Plenty of people here don’t understand how extenstions work. You as the team can’t wait to sign him or else the extension becomes far more expensive. The longer you wait the closer the player is to free agency thus the less likely you’re to lock him up because he’ll want to test free agency.
It doesn’t matter that Byron Buxton has been a 5.1 rwar player for only one year, as it was founded on attributes that are sustainable for a 24 year old of his athleticism (fielding, throwing, and speed on both sides). If you eyed the Twins at all or even kept up with MLB in 2017, you would know that Buxton found offensive star production down the stretch due to a physical change in his stroke, abandoning his leg kick. He works like mad and is still growing bigger and stronger. He may not have quite the offensive ceiling of Trout, and Betts is a fair comparison, but there isn’t a body more built to play baseball than his. This flower is blooming. I just hope he doesn’t get hurt enough to derail his career. Read Martinez’s excuse for not catching balls at the wall and then watch Buxton’s highlights in center. Decide who is really earning their money, and then tell the Twins to pay him.
Great talent..no doubt…Twins should get a larger sample size before they dive in? No rush…Buxton will obviously accept