It was on this day in 2013 that the Brewers signed Kyle Lohse to a three-year, $33MM contract, ending Lohse’s extended stay in the free agent market. The 2012-13 offseason was the first to feature the qualifying offer in its original form, and the draft pick compensation (a first-round pick, or the highest available pick for a team with one of the top ten draft spots) attached to Lohse’s services seemed to chill the market for the veteran right-hander. Lohse became the first of several notable players whose free agency was impacted by the QO in the coming years, and even in its adjusted form under the new collective bargaining agreement, the qualifying certainly still acted as a seeming deterrent for several free agents this offseason. The Brewers, it should be noted, ended up getting a pretty solid return on their investment, as Lohse posted a 3.45 ERA and 3.28 K/BB rate over 397 innings in 2013-14 before declining in the final year of the contract.
Some items from around baseball…
- Talks about Scott Kingery’s precedent-setting extension with the Phillies came together within the last few days, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes (subscription required). The team had been planning to keep Kingery at Triple-A long enough (April 13) to limit his service time and thus gain and extra year of control over his services. At a guaranteed price of $24MM over six years, the Phillies see the contract “as a no-risk transaction,” as it isn’t too heavy a sum to eat if Kingery doesn’t live up to expectations as a big leaguer, though the organization is very high on the prospect as an important building block.
- Of course, the Kingery deal was bound to generate some controversy given that he could be leaving a lot of future money on the table should he play well. Speaking to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), one rival agent described the contract’s three club options as “offensive,” given that the Phillies could control Kingery’s first three free agent years at a total price of $42MM, which surely won’t match the rate of market inflation by 2024-26. Rosenthal’s notes piece is well worth a full read, as he catches up on some of the bigger stories of the past six weeks that he missed while recovering from back surgery. (On behalf of all of us at MLBTR, it’s great to see Ken recovered and ready to go for the start of the season!)
- Wei-Yin Chen faced live hitters in a 16-pitch batting practice session today, and the Marlins southpaw told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro) that it “felt like the old days,” prior to the elbow problems that have plagued him over the last two seasons. Chen has been gradually moving through the recovery process, with today’s session being his first test against actual batters. Without any injury setbacks, Chen could begin a proper ramp-up to the season and potentially return to Miami’s rotation by May, at the earliest.
- The Tigers aren’t planning to make a trade to account for Mike Fiers’ potential DL stint, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi tweets. The team already has Daniel Norris as an in-house replacement, plus Fiers isn’t expected to miss much time recovering from the back problems that have hampered him all spring.
- Kevin Maitan’s prospect stock was already dimming after a difficult first full pro season, and the former Braves prospect has continued to draw mixed reviews from scouts in his first Spring Training with the Angels, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. Though Maitan is still just 18 years old, scouts already believe his body type won’t allow him to remain at shortstop, and he may also be too big even to handle third base. This puts more pressure on Maitan to hit if he isn’t going to play at a premium defensive position, and evaluators also have some questions about Maitan’s swing. pessimistic
Phillies2017
On Maitan
Let the hype cool a bit, imagine being in high school, being hailed as the next derek jeter, given a ton of money, released a year in and sign again. Meanwhile, as you’re trying to get your feet wet in your new organization, reporters and scouts are going off about how he’s “too big” or his swing isnt great.
Remember- Eloy Jimenez posted lackluster minor league numbers in his first two professional seasons too. Give the kid a break and let him make the adjustments necessary.
rez2405 2
He wasn’t released tho
drock2722
He wasn’t really released because he was underperforming… he was part of that braves crop that got released because of tampering I believe
camdenyards46
He got cut because the Braves were exploiting the international signing system. Not because Maitan was bad.
angelsinthetroutfield
Heres to hoping the negativity works in Maitans favor. With substantially lessened hype/expectations maybe he can fly under the radar a bit. We should fully expect ups and downs from an 18yr old. Good luck to him, I hope he makes it as a 3B
customcrown
Chen is a trade piece.
Sawx player by June
I hope.
Michael Chaney
His contract is still quite a hurdle, and that’s assuming he’s even ramped up and pitching well by midseason
misports
Really hope Norris keeps that rotation spot.
hiflew
You can’t really fault either side in the Kingery deal. Yes, Kingery may have left some potential money on the table in 2024-26, but he has guaranteed himself a payday over the next six years regardless of how his career works out. That comes at a price. The odds are against ANY prospect even being successful in the big leagues, let alone receiving higher than a $42MM deal in their age 29-31 seasons. Not to say it couldn’t happen, but the odds are against it. One could say that Kingery is being a bit pessimistic about himself, I argue that it is realistic. And the downside of all of this is that he is a good enough baseball player to warrant a $42 million dollar contract at age 29. Sure he might leave some money on the table, but when you are still going to get $42MM that’s not exactly a huge downside.
BTW, just for curiosity’s sake, Kingery is the #31 prospect for BA. I wanted to see if any of the #31 prospects from 2001-2010 would be worth $24MM.
2001 – Jimmy Rollins – YES
2002 – Adrian Gonzalez – YES
2003 – Adrian Gonzalez – YES again
2004 – Franklin Gutierrez – NO
2005 – Felix Pie – NO
2006 – Cameron Maybin – MAYBE
2007 – Scott Elbert – NO
2008 – Andy LaRoche – NO
2009 – Derek Holland – MAYBE
2010 – Lonnie Chisenhall – MAYBE
3 definite YES, 4 definite NO, 3 MAYBE. I was generous with the 3 maybes, but I’d put the odds at 50-50. Although this is hardly scientific, it does give a slight idea.
BadlyBent
Thanks for doing the research. And for remembering that this is a 6yr mlb contract for someone who hasn’t seen a major league inning yet.
GeoKaplan
What if Mgmt was hedging bet against possible changes in next CBA? Might be cheaper to lock him in on the current agreement than a next one which might allow sooner free agency.
Besides, if he isn’t as good as thought, then it’s a great deal for him, and if he IS as good as believed, then a bargain for the Phillies. Also enhances trade value if necessary.
Caseys.Partner
Fun stuff: Who is younger, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado or Scott Kingery?
therealryan
Where are you going with this easily answered question? You’ve now asked it multiple times in different comment sections.
Kayrall
What do their ages have to do with Kingery’s?
jbigz12
Lol. When asking a question like that you’d want the established major leaguers to actually be younger. That’s just nonsense.
atlbraves2010
Franklin Gutierrez has been a nearly 18 win player over his career….He has most definitely been worth 24MM
Regi Green
Maybin is a yes,Holland before injuries definitely was, and Gutierrez is a maybe.
It’s 24mil over 6years. Holland was a solid 3.Maybin is a good 4th of’r, who could start for some teams. And Gutierrez is a above average hitting utility man who can play 2b or cf, 4m might be a little high,but not by that much.
therealryan
Gutierrez was worth 15 bWAR over his first 6+ MLB years, but only earned $13.3 million and Maybin was worth 8.6 bWAR while he earned $16.7 million during his first 6+ MLB seasons. Chisenhall will end up earning under $16 million while putting up 8.9 bWAR plus whatever his WAR is this year. Kingery is going to have to become a multiple time all star at 2B for this contract to become a deal for the Phillies. Just because the Phils can afford a bad contract or three, doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to start making a habit of it.
stormie
By what logic does he need to be a multiple-time all-star to be worth $4 million a year? One all-star year alone would be worth the entire contract.
jimdevinmoriah
I love this deal for the kid and think it is fair both ways. The crazy part about it, is that he doesn’t even have a position open for him to start. So I am wondering if a trade is being contemplated to create on starting spot for him. I can’t see him being a utility player at such a young age and getting paid that kind of money. Also to not be getting regular at bats at this young of an age as well.
indiansfan44
Looking at the team I would have to assume he is going to get every chance to be the everyday starter at second. Granted his numbers are all from the minors but he has a comparable ave and obp numbers with more power. than Hernandez. Hernandez is actually a good choice for a utility role since he can move around the infield and is a switch hitter off the bench as well as insurance at short if Crawford continues to struggle.
WubbaLubbaDubDub
He’ll be a super sub to start the season. He’ll get time at 2nd, SS, 3rd, and all outfield spots. I think he’ll appear almost as regularly as a starter. Hernandez will be the starting second basemen until either the trade deadline or the offseason.
frank_costanza
The contract was “offensive”?! The guys never played an inning in the bigs! He could flame out and walk away with $24 mil. I don’t see how you don’t sign that deal from his perspective. He just went from making the league minimum if he made the roster to being a millionaire. Give me a break!
Michael Chaney
I agree with the notion that Kingery could be selling himself short, but these types of deals aren’t always as successful as everyone thinks. Everyone thought the same thing about Singleton and Tabata, and they still didn’t provide enough value.
vlad4hof
Fair but Kingery is so much more multidimensional and versatile that id think he’s a safer bet than those guys
stymeedone
How would you feel if Dansby Swanson had signed that contract before appearing in the bigs? Similar type of prospect before he actually played.
therealryan
Actually Swanson was considered a much better and safer prospect coming into last season. He had more draft pedigree, had a better track record in the minors at a younger age and also plays a harder position on the defensive spectrum. If Swanson was offered 5/$23.5 million right now, I would think most would consider that an overpay.
At this time last season, Tim Anderson was a similar type of prospect as Kingery, coming off of a promising 100 game MLB debut and signed a very similar contract extension. One year later and I’m not sure how many would offer a 5 year/$23.5 million extension to Tim Anderson right now if given the opportunity.
nutbunnies
Great position for a player to be in. “Take this below market deal or we’ll delay your free agency by a year.”
whtstr314
On Kingery,
The agent commenting is exactly why no one wanted to take a side and think both of them were jerks in this offseason’s labor dispute. Because even if you have players who could be making the best decision for them right then, and owners raking in hundreds of millions a year, the agents step in and make all players look like greedy jerks. The deal could be a boon for either side, but hind sight is 20/20, isn’t it?