March 1: The Phillies have at least “entertained” the possibility of signing two of the remaining starters, Morosi tweets, though he notes that such a scenario is unlikely.
Feb. 28, 11:48pm: The Phillies have had recent contact with Lance Lynn and his agents at Excel Sports, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, though Morosi notes that the two sides aren’t close to an agreement at this time. Philadelphia, of course, has been said to be monitoring the free-agent market for starters for the bulk of the offseason, most prominently being linked to Jake Arrieta.
While the Phils haven’t been oft-connected to Lynn, there’s little surprise to the fact that they’re keeping tabs on his asking price and at least generally monitoring his market. Beyond top starter Aaron Nola, the Phillies have little in the way of rotation certainty, after all. Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez seem likely to break camp in the rotation, but Eickhoff struggled through a lackluster 2017 season while Velasquez was limited by injuries and ineffective when healthy. Both showed considerably more promise in 2016, though, and the general lack of experience throughout the remainder of the roster should give them spots.
Other options for the Phillies include Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Ben Lively and Mark Leiter, though none from that bunch turned in an especially encouraging 2017 season — at least at the big league level. Drew Hutchison is easily the team’s most experienced non-roster invitee in camp, and he could conceivably force his way into the mix as well.
Suffice it to say, there’s plenty of room to add an established veteran to the Phils’ starting corps. GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail have hardly shied away from free-agent spending this offseason, bringing in Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM), Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM) in addition to Hutchison’s non-guaranteed deal. Lynn would represent a fourth notable multi-year signing, though at this stage in the offseason and with a seemingly tepid market for his services, it’s possible that he could be had at a lower rate than many pundits expected when he rejected a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals.
That he rejected said QO, of course, means that the Phillies will lose more than just money by signing him. Bringing Lynn into the organization would require the team to forfeit its second-highest remaining draft pick as well as $500K worth of international bonus allotments. The Phillies already sacrificed their second-round pick by signing Santana, who also rejected a QO, so signing Lynn (or Arrieta or Alex Cobb) would require them to surrender their third-round selection while seeing their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by another $500K.
The 30-year-old Lynn (31 in May) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017 to throw 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 33 starts for the Cardinals. The surface-level numbers are impressive, but Lynn’s 7.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and 27.2 percent chase rate were all career-worsts. His .244 BABIP was the lowest mark among all qualified big league starters as well, while his 79 percent strand rate was tied for the ninth-highest. His four-seam fastball also sat at just 91.8 mph — down roughly a mile an hour from his peak years. For a pitcher who threw his heater a stunning 81.1 percent of the time in 2017 — 12.4 percent higher than the next pitcher on the list — that’s a troubling trend.
3/45
3/50 with an a difficult (but achievable) vesting player option
Because the Phillies have so little commitment the next few years they can easily afford to top other teams’ offers in AAV. Andy MacPhail is cautious and he won’t want to pay someone like Lynn or Arrieta huge money when they’re 34 or 35 and aren’t any good.
I think they’re holding out hope that Arrieta will eventually agree to a 3 or 4 year deal. If they accept that he won’t, they’ll get Lynn or Cobb for 3 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if they paid $55-$60 million to either over 3 years. Sure, that’s more than they’re worth but they have so much money to spend. They overpaid Santana, Hunter, and Neshek to get them on shorter deals.
Haha 3/60 for these guys really puts things in perspective. I remember when it was groundbreaking that the Phils signed Roy Halladay to a 3/60 contract prior to the 2011 season.
hell of a lot more money to go around now as oppose to ’11
While I understand your point, don’t think Roy Holladay is a fair comparison. He took a pay-cut to play for the Phillies agreeing to three year $60M contract extension to facilitate the trade. At the time I remember thinking, that was a below-market contract for a pitcher of his caliber and I believe he would’ve made so much more had he hit FA. Sure enough his first year with the Phillies he led the NL in wins, IP (250.2) Complete games (9) and winning the Cy young award. That wouldn’t equivocate to a three year $60 million on the open market, even in 2009. He took that pay-cut to play on a winning team.
I remember people were throwing the Roy Halladay’s contract around when Chapman was signed to a $17.2AAV… The guy took an under-market contract extension….., and that was back then. .
The Cubs should be in on Lynn and all available starters. They have an aging and injury plagued rotation and need the depth. The Cubs need an innings eater and Lynn fits the bill. Darvish will likely wind up on the dl and Chatwood is a gamble that won’t pay off. The Cubs need rotation help and with Lynn’s price dropping now is the time to swoop in.
Who in their rotation is “injury plagued”?
Lester has made at least 31 starts in each of the past ten seasons. Hendricks has been on the DL once in his career. Darvish hasn’t been on the DL since his TJ surgery. Quintana has NEVER been on the DL. So that leaves Chatwood. Having your #5 starter make the occasional trip to the DL does not make for an “injury-plagued rotation”.
Injury plagued, definitely not but stating they have an aging rotation is definitely true. Even if their rotation is aging a bit, I’d still say it looks pretty strong on paper.
I think giving up the draft pick is a bigger hurdle for teams to get over then the actual money to sign a FA to a contract. That is very understandabe, especially if your farm is already weak.
That’s why it’s not a big hurdle for the Phillies. They’d only give up a 3rd round pick because they signed Santana previously. They have around 13 starting pitchers for the Major League/AAA rotation and they don’t need that many. If they sign Lynn they could easily trade Eflin, Thompson, Lively, Leibrandt, De Los Santos, Anderson, or Taveras for someone drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round in 2017 and $500k international bonus money. They could trade more than one of these guys.
They could all be a team’s fifth starter right now or the sixth or seventh guy in AAA and they all have some upside if things go right. So they’d sacrifice a 2018 3rd for Lynn but get a 2017 3rd for the guy Lynn displaces.
The Phillies best minor league starters (Sanchez, Kilome, Medina, Dominguez) are a level or two below these guys. Eventually they’ll have to make room for these guys when they’re promoted.
The Orioles are thin in the rotation and give away international bonus money in every deal. The Cubs and Giants could use rotation depth at AAA. That’s just of the top of my head.
They’re not going to get third round taken for any of those depth arms you mentioned. But I liked the comment anyways, because it’s well written and thought out. Unlike the unfortunate majority of comments you see.
+1
Its not as easy as u make it sound.
That’s why it doesn’t matter for the Phillies who have one of the best farm systems
Teams don’t even really care about the pick itself. They care about the draft pool allotment tied to the pick. If the Rule were to change where a team lost the pick, but kept the allotment, teams would be lining up again to pay these guys.
You are correct, draft picks and player control is king right now. It’s obvious the Cardinals value the draft pick more than Lynn in their rotation
So this is what the offseason has come down to, “recent contact”.
It’s over. Cardinals — No matter how respectable they spent/were always willing to spend, they can’t compete with the Phillies payroll. (Their treasure chest)
What are you talking about?
What?
Huh? What did I miss?
Even after Santana signing, The Phillies have like, $35m payroll? (And history of spending $$$)
If they want their guy, they’ll get him.
Still don’t really understand the Phillies moves this offseason, but buying in on Lynn and even one more SP definitely makes more sense than just overpaying Carlos Santana to block 1B from Hoskins for 3 years.
Their move was to sign Yu Darvish and keep his work load light this year. Instead they gave $20 million per year to a 1B who lines up age wise with Ryan Howard’s last years in a Phillies uniform. This looks like deliberate sabotage as I don’t see how anyone could be this dumb.
This looks like a plot to load up the payroll to make signing both Harper and Machado not a thing to expect, just flushing money down the toilet and giving Phillies fans the finger.
To look at the Santana signing and not see deliberate payroll waste leaves you only one choice, to label the Phillies decision makers mental defectives.
or they’re a team that values a Dominican leader in the club house, and elite walk rates?
Some old tune with Caseys partner
What are the analytics of a “Dominican Leader”
Funny how all that talk, talk, talk about analytics just disappears when Harper and Machado appear on the free agent stage.
What is the analytics of Rhys Hoskins in LF? Slowest outfielder in MLB and throws like a ball girl. That’s what the analytics say to do?
FELONY FRAUD by John Middleton.
Google that: John Middleton Felony Fraud
The analystics actually like Hoskins in LF over Williams. The analysts say Santana produces more runs because he gets on base more than most guys in the league
Yeah?
“What is the analytics of Rhys Hoskins in LF? Slowest outfielder in MLB””
That’s from Dave Cameron before he left FanGraphs to go work for the Padres.
Jeff Sullivan described the signing of Santana and push of Hoskins to LF as “weird”.
I thought FanGraphs had something to do with analytics?
I don’t think anyone like seeing Rhys Hoskins in left field. It’s like watching Trey Mancini in Baltimore. They’re both first baseman playing left field. No analytics like his range or arm out there. Can he play a passable left? Time will tell.
I was literally worried Hoskins was going to hurt himself last September. This Santana/Hoskins thing is one of the dumbest moves I’ve ever seen. The Padres signing Hosmer is an order of magnitude more intelligent.
He did last year and he’d never played there. I’d guess he wouldn’t be too negative on defensive runs saved. One thing that isn’t mentioned is that Hoskins has been a below average 1B defensively in the minors. That still makes him better than Tommy Joseph there, but not a positive. The hope was that he’d improve at 1B in the Majors. Now they’ll see if he can in left.
The Phillies have a history of playing poor defensive left fielders. Greg Luzinski, Gregg Jefferies, and Pat Burrell all played there.
Yes, the Phillies do have that history.
Was Matt Klentak __born__ yet when Luzinski was in LF for the Phillies?
Who’s running the Phillies?
The Phillies won the WS twice with two guys in LF who would be in contention for the title:
Slowest OF in MLB History
“The Phillies have a history of playing poor defensive left fielders” The Cubs Kyle Schwarber chimes in-WHAT ABOUT ME!
Yeah, Schwarber stinks out loud.
“Bible in bus driver’s pocket stops two bullets, saves his life”
Sounds like a plan to you?
Alot of moves made in baseball are more for the fans. Getting Santana and the couple relievers helps convince fans to spend money on tickets and what not. Makes em have a little hope they might be somewhat competitive. They won’t be,
You don’t sell a lot of tickets with moves that might you better. If you’re not, they still won’t come. You sell tickets if you are more competitive. They should be more competitive in 2018, 2019, and 2020 with Lance Lynn than without him. So acquiring him will likely help attendance. He isn’t expected to be the key guy for a World Series win but he could be one of the guys you need to do that.
Will Lance Lynn generate you 45 million dollars in ticket sales? No, he won’t. That really won’t be a consideration. If they want a pitcher then they’ll spend the money but in no way will he bring back that kind of return. They have cash if they want to spend it. Probably makes more sense to hold onto it but.
Signing Lance Lynn will be good for an additional 10-12 wins, though, which might be the difference between 4th and 3rd in their division. And it’ll put one of these young pitchers back in AAA ball for more seasoning rather than throwing him out there against major league hitters this year. And, you won’t have to sign another vet pitcher next year, unless you’re really close to being good again.
“Signing Lance Lynn will be good for an additional 10-12 wins”
In 1972 Steve Carlton pitched 346 innings with a 1.97 ERA.
THAT 1972 season by Steve Carlton was worth twelve wins.
Hey, you think the Phillies would sell a lot of tickets and their fans have “hope” if they signed both Harper and Machado?
Signing lifetime Phillies fan mike trout in 2020 certainly will put the butts in seats.
Also, Steve, it was announced Jake Thompson was converting to the bullpen full time, so he’s not a rotation option anymore.
Thompson is not a starter and I had him going to the pen on the day they acquired him, that’s what his scouting report read as, stuff plays up out of the pen and mediocre as a starter. Nothing has changed on that.
Lynn doesnt do much for me, but if they want a veteran for the staff, true, the money doesnt make much difference and their recent third round picks have been Conor Seabold, an overslot Cole Stobbe, Lucas Williams, Aaron Brown (now converted to pitcher),and Cord Sandberg, so i guess i shouldnt care about giving up a third either.
No, the money doesn’t make any difference if you’re a mental defective who thinks signing both Harper and Machado next winter is a bad idea.
Just flush tens of millions of dollars down the toilet. Who wants to buy generational talents when you can blow money on garbage?
you seem to be an expert on mental defectives- seems like your talents are wasted in the comments section.
I have to agree. Why waste money on Lance Lynn this year? You’re going to be bad this year. See what you have in the rotation and sign a guy like that next offseason. You might only get 2 effective years out of a Lance Lynn anyway. If I were a Phillies fan I’d rather have a Trevor Cahill type signed.
Why sign anyone other than Darvish?
Because Darvish was the top pitcher on the market, but not a top pitcher in the game. He hasn’t been the same since his UCL; he’s older now, coming off a disastrous postseason, and the affects of going from a more relaxed pitching schedule in Japan to the US may be catching up with him, faster than it will a pitcher who has pitched here his entire career. At 6 years and $126M, Darvish was overpaid, and the Cubs will regret that contract soon enough.
I don’t know why I’m even bothering to respond to you, but all your talk about Luis Robert, Moncada, and you’re probably the same fool who constantly lit up Philly.com with “Kevin Maitan investigate john middleton”…but anyway…all those dollars you want spent on international free agents…what have they done? For every player who turns in Jose Abreu there are Rusney Castillo, Yosmani Tomas, Alex Guerrero, etc. Why spent tends of millions on amateur international talent when the success rate isn’t even 50%?
“I don’t know why I’m even bothering to respond to you”
Because you’re a Philly Phan with blood relations to those who drove Dick Allen out of Philly.
My argument is spot on to anyone who is __not__ someone like you. Those who are not like you get down and kiss the ground and then look up and thank their god that they were not born and raised as you were.
What?
@ Caseys partner aka free_aec……Do you really want to bring up racism of the past and accuse someone considering your past. After all I doubt anyone here, other than you, ever had a law passed (because of your actions) in LA county to prevent people from stuffing racist material in cereal and cookie boxes, or stamping messages in items for sale.
@ Tom…”I don’t know why I’m even bothering to respond to you, but all your talk about Luis Robert, Moncada, and you’re probably the same fool who constantly lit up Philly.com with “Kevin Maitan investigate john middleton”… He is one and the same…..new name same “free-aec”.
Screw it. Sign all three. At least when I go to CBP, I can watch one of the four pitch for a chance at a win. Lol
Don’t do it , 100 pitches threw five innings kills your bullpen every five days,as a Cardinals fan I was glad to see him go.
The phillies are planning on their rotation being like that regardless. Hence the money and converted starters invested into the bullpen
Hell, sign Greg Holland too. We could use a closer. Neris is more of a 7th or 8th inning guy.
And in two years, give the key to the city to Trout.
It’s really surprising to me that so many people don’t understand why the phillies are spending/want to spend. They have no payroll commitments and a young team not far away from competing. I think if they sign a starter then they have a real shot at the second wild card
Rather trade for a significant long term piece at the deadline (stroman, archer, fulmer) and let lively efflin, Thompson battle for that 5th spot the first 3 months
Why are these options mutually exclusive?
Trade for a starter after they sign Harper and Machado.
Perhaps a darkhorse candidate for Lynn would be the Seattle Mariners. They need somebody steady in that rotation.
If they get a combined 300 innings from Paxton and King Felix it will be a miracle.
Their team is close to wildcard contention and the time to strike is now. Offer him 3 years at $18 per. After the three years is up so is their other high priced contracts (Cano, Cruz, Felix). If they get nowhere in three years then they are set up perfectly for a rebuild.
WTF do the Brewers think they’re doing? They don’t even have the makings of a pitching staff nor do they have a Sixto Sanchez on their farm.
Cano isn’t up for another 6 years counting 2018.
You are correct. My bad on Cano. Still, I would rather be competitive while Cano is 35 than when he is 40.
IF Lynn had a 3/54m offer on the table I suspect he wouldnt be sitting in free agency right now.
Last year the Phillies had roughly a $111 million payroll. They got there by signing or trading Gomez, Buchholz, Hellickson, Neeshak, Benoit, Blanco, Saunders, Nava, and Kendrick for $71 million. They were bad to mediocre players who wouldn’t produce wins and those they were able to trade produced mediocre prospects.
This year the Phillies have spent $36 million. If they add another $35 million they’ll spend the same amount as last year, but on players who’ll help them win more games this year and next. For some reason last year’s strategy barely got noticed but this year’s is wrong because they aren’t winning this year.
If they were to give Arrieta and Lynn three year deals they’d still likely be $80 million below the luxury tax threshold in any of those three years.
Big difference. They were mostly all one year deals last year. Spending isn’t bad especially when you’re in a. Large market like Philadelphia. But they didn’t guarantee years to any of those guys. If they want to add a vet to the rotation that’s fine but it should only be 1 of them. There’s a big difference in one year deals v multi though.
But why were the Phillies so willing to flush that kind of money down the toilet but would not pay Yoan Moncada or Luis Robert?
Not even a rumor this winter about Yu Darvish. John Middleton and Yuli Gurriel.
wait, i thought kevin maitan was the guy you really wanted?
Yoan Moncada was the guy I screamed for. My screams were heard. A beat writer at philly dot com asked Ruben Amaro about Moncada and Amaro proceeded to rave about what a great prospect Moncada was.
That’s why my blog attacks John Middleton, because it’s Middleton who was and continues to be the problem.
BTW, That Ortiz kid on the Phillies farm who has generated excitement among the prospect folk, he was personally scouted by Amaro before Amaro approved his $4 million bonus and then Amaro traded for the $ from Arizona so the Phillies did not incur penalties. Amaro also scouted Cornelius Randolph, the only Scott Boras client the Phillies have ever signed and only the second they have drafted.
THEN, after those moves Amaro was fired.
“Cornelius Randolph, the only Scott Boras client the Phillies have ever signed”
This is a factually untrue statement.
I’ll let you think about it for a while, but there are at least two other Boras clients the Phillies have signed out of HS.
If you can’t get something basic like that correct, on what basis should we judge the accuracy of the rest of your posts?
NO.
Cornelius Randolph is the first Scott Boras client the Phillies have ever signed and only the second they have drafted.
If Arrieta was signed he would be the first free agent represented by Boras that the Phillies had signed, a distinction which should belong to Bryce Harper.
All other players represented by Boras and on the Phillies roster were under their MLB slave years of control and acquired via trade. Once a free agent they were signed by another team.
Ryan Madson
Dom Brown
ROFLOL!
Madsen was signed for $130,000.
Brown was signed for $200,000.
Madsen hired Boras in his free agent walk year with the Phillies. The Phillies did negotiate with Boras for Madsen and Boras – as with Kyle Lohse – claimed he had a verbal agreement on a contract with the Phillies which the Phillies backed out of after delaying. Both Madsen and Lohse suffered serious financial losses due to the Phillies actions.
Jayson Werth fired his agent mid-season of his walk year with the Phillies, hired Scott Boras and at that time Boras picked up Brown as a client.
Keep trying Sparky.
Dear CP,
My understanding is that Boras was the agent for both of them out of HS. I presume, since you write so authoritatively on the subject that you can site sources as to when they hired Boras.
Thanks in advance.
Sincerely,
Sparky
I know you think you’re providing a counterpoint but you’re actually bolstering my argument. If the Phillies pay Lance Lynn $17 million in 2018 to pitch for a bad team they get him in 2019 and 2020 to pitch in years they plan to contend. He should still be good in those years. On the other hand, they paid Jeremy Hellickson $17 million and Clay Buchholz $13 million and got nothing for the future. Your deal with Lynn should benefit the team.
One argument against signing Lynn to a 3 year deal with a bad team would be he won’t be valuable in years 2 and 3 of the deal. He’ll only be 32 and 33 in those years and should be as good a bet as any free agent that you’d get for that price. If he has a good year in 2018 he’d get that in free agency in 2019 and 2020.
This’d also ease the pressure next off-season. You don’t really want to enter an off-season needing to sign 5 high priced free agents because you aren’t likely to be able to attract and sign 5 guys at prices that work for you. You’ll probably end with one or two guys you really want but then sign a player worse than Lynn for more money.
Signing Lynn should make the team better this year. Every year some team improves by around 20 games and shoots up. The Twins went from 59 to 85 wins last year. The Phillies might not be that team with Lynn but they are less likely to be that without him. Maybe they don’t make the playoffs and Lynn only helps a team that would’ve won 76 games without him win 79 with him. A better team should be more attractive in drawing free agents next year. If the Phillies win under 70 games this year free agents will only go as a last resort.
No one is signing in Philly without getting paid.
The Phillies could win 55 games and sign both Harper and Machado. If the Phillies won 85 games the price to sign them would be the same.
Interviewer: “Do you think you could be the first $400 million dollar player?”
Bryce Harper: “Don’t sell me short.”
“last year’s strategy barely got noticed””
It was noticed and repeatedly noted by me. However, the national MLB media ignored the gross incompetence completely.
I have a bad feeling that Lynn is going to be a disaster
It is patently unfair that signing Lynn (or any other QO guy) would cost nearly every other team a second rounder but only a third rounder to the Phillies. That hurts the player because it limits his market and hurts the other teams because it encourages a single team to sign all of the best free agents around.
What should happen is the Phils (or any other team signing multiple guys) should lose a similar pick NEXT year and lose their ability to sign a QO free agent next year and if they sign a third guy, then they should lose their 2020 pick and the ability to sign a QO free agent that year as well. Although I will admit that the system seems to be better than it used to be.
Manny Machado will cost the Phillies their third round pick because signing Harper cost them their 2nd pick.
Honestly I believe that signing the first QO free agent shouldn’t cost you anything. You can still give the team losing the player an extra pick without taking away anything from the signing team. Now signing a second one should cost you, but the first should be free, so to speak.
The CBA the players signed onto is simply unbelievable. I did not believe what I was reading here was correct as the rumors first surfaced. Then two hours later it was confirmed and elaborated upon. I was certain the payroll tax was going to begin at least at $250 million and then go up to $260, $270, $280 and $290. That last number would still be much less than what the Dodgers had already run as a payroll.
The MLBPA is every bit as weak as any other union in the USA. Hopefully those teachers in West Virginia will show others the way forward.
so, I know players want to get their money, but seriously:
it’s time to just accept a contract that you’re offered, suit up, and get on the damn field. you’re wasting valuable Spring Training time to get back in shape and to get back to being an asset to a club. if you’re not an asset to a club now and play, let’s say, half the season as opposed to the full, who’s going to pay you the money you think you deserve? Let’s be honest, there’s not much difference between 100 million and 110 million dollars. You can explain to me that there is, but I refuse to believe it.
Point is: take the money. play the game you were blessed and fortunate enough to play. quit seeing dollar signs and start seeing the fastball instead. instead of contact with clubs, make contact with bats.
it’s just frustrating to see people hold out, because they’re missing the bigger picture here.
Go to Zillow. Enter in some prime areas to buy a house and see what $10 million buys you.
You’d still have $10 million to buy it if you got $100 million. Your counter is saying there is a big difference between $0 and $10 million, which is true. But his argument is saying there isn’t as much a difference between $100 million and $110 million, which I also believe is true. The $10 million dollar difference loses its value the higher the base pay is. It’s like a fine of $100 to a McDonald’s worker is a huge deal, but that same fine to Mark Cuban is nothing but spare change.
But, but…..property taxes.
You need that other ten million to pay the taxes for the next 30 years.
This isn’t in response to the article itself but to the moderators. I love visiting this site and reading the rumors and comments, but some comments are totally unbearable and are posted on every single post over and over again. You should know exactly what I’m referring to. Is there please something that can be done about that? Thanks.
As for Lynn/Arrieta to the Phils, sign me up if the asking price comes down a little in terms of years.
The FA pitching market is garbage next year, might as well get them now
Darvish is gone.
Darvish was available for months……after the Phillies wasted $20 million per year on Santana.
As a Phillie fan,Lynn scares me. Cardinals don’t let to many good pitchers get away.
Lynn’s peripheral numbers are truly awful. That the Cardinals aren’t even considering bringing him back should sound alarm bells through the league.
Don’t waste money, draft picks, international pool money on any of these guys. Go with the kids and see who can pitch.
I don’t get the point of having to give up draft compensation for 30+ year old players. Like at a certain point you gotta get rid of this QO nonsense.