The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.
Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.
Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.
It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)
The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.
brewcrew08
These guys aren’t even going to have a job come opening day. The longer they “hold out” the worse their leverage get. Do they not realize there are 4-5 teams at most interested? None of which are big spenders outside of Washington.
davbee
A couple of key pitchers get hurt and suddenly the unsigned pitchers value increases. Waiting it out might not be a bad strategy.
deweybelongsinthehall
Exactly. Pomerantz just left due to tightness. Hopefully not serious but It’s sad that players didn’t see the adjustment coming and most will now be taking a beating. Most have no one to blame but themselves and their agents. What may end up being good for fans (but not for MLBTR) is many more players may now be willing to sign extensions like years back. Maybe not most of the very top like Betts but yes even some of those too.
Coast1
This makes sense if the issue is 2018 salary. A desperate team will up their offer for this year. I don’t think the need for a 2018 starter will cause a team to make a 5 year offer instead of 3. That seems like a lot of money to pay for needing a starter for a few months.
deweybelongsinthehall
Teams now believe it’s best to pay more avg wise for less years. The problem teams like Boston will have is they will have dead money on future years. When JDM opts out, the difference in the avg assessed and what was paid goes on the following year’s books. Guess they timed the hit to offset when other contracts also come off.
chgobangbang
Waiting it out for injury may be the only strategy they have left? That or wait till date compensation of draft choice expires and see what interest they’ll have. What is that date June 1?
Michael Chaney
Once the draft is over, so yeah it would be around the beginning of June
atomicfront
It will take them 6 weeks from the time they are signed until they ready to pitch in big league games. Just pick their best offer or they are going to look at lower and lower returns.
One Fan
Its a terrible strategy
waxbuddie
Yeah I feel the same, but I suppose part of the strategy may be waiting for an injury to occur which almost always seems to happen during spring training
bigjonliljon
Agreed. Not to mention the track record of pitchers signing this late isn’t good. Behind every one one else in conditioning as well as learning there catcher, etc. injuries and poor performance in the past
Tiger_diesel92
Phillies do have money and so does the orioles it’s calling being cheap.
dirtydan
For the Phillies it’s called rebuilding. They’re not cheap at all they just know when to spend their money.
Robertowannabe
Not wishing to overspend for a pitcher in their 30’s is more in vogue now and not so much cheap. Obviously the pitchers all want 5-7 years for contract length. If it were my team, I would not want to pay 7 years guaranteed for a guy like Arrieta. Already has show some regression and not the same guy he was 2 years ago. That version of Jake would have commanded the big bucks. The current version not so much.
deweybelongsinthehall
The test on the future market of starting pitchers might be the extension/new contract Kershaw gets. Avg will obviously be up there but for how many years?
bravesfan88
Kershaw is in a league of his own, followed by only a handful of pitchers. His contract will have a very minimal impact on what #2’s, #3’s, and #4 starting pitchers receive in the future.
The fact is with so many teams going towards analytics, and having that mindset decide their decisions in free agency, GM’s are ALOT less willing to pay based on past success. This is especially the case with pitchers, entering their mid 30’s, like Arrieta.
Teams before, would pay Arrieta his big money, not really caring that they’d be stuck with a bad contract in 3-4 seasons..They’d want him as their #2-#3 guy now, and take that added security at the expense of future financial flexibility…Well, that’s not happening anymore..
Now, teams will take a guy like Arrieta and say look man, you’re not getting any better..If you want a high annual average, then you’ll take our 2-3 year deal…If you want longer security, then we want the same security, and you’ll get a good bit less money…
The pitchers that will really suffer are the mediocre guys, wanting another good deal that runs through their early to mid 30’s seasons..
It’s the new way of thinking for GM’s, and unfortunately this group of Free Agents are paying the untimely consequences…
deweybelongsinthehall
Kershaw sets the bar so to speak. He also has a lot of mileage and recent injury history. Should be interesting as my guess is they will find a creative middle ground at a huge yearly avg but one that contains mutual protection, not just player. What hasn’t been mentioned is the cost of injury insurance. As salaries escalate so does the insurance and with the recent number of arm injuries such may actually not be available.
Travis’ Wood
Jim Bowden is beyond clueless. A former GM who has no idea how the qualifying offer works. He even says it was “according to sources”…. so he’s either making stuff up or his sources are brain dead. Lol
bigcubsfan
I may be Jim Bowen’s reputable source. I tell him swingy-swingy game “secrets”! Like Arrieta will sign with the Marlins, Moustakas will sign with Colorado, Lynn will give up and go to Japan. Oh, how funny man this is, he believes swingy-swingy secrets. Oh fun! I tell him Chubs were able to trade Heyward for Harper, he leaped out of his seat, and went to Tweeter haha!
barkinghumans77
Ya, his source is himself… “According to 1 former GM”… Lol
canajay12
At this point a 4 year 56MM deal for Cobb or Lynn would have me as a blue Jays fan. We don’t have a clear need but let’s face it Sanchez, Stroman, happ, Estrada aren’t all staying healthy
michaelw
That’s way way too much for either Cobb or Lynn.
hawaiiphil
correct—lucky to get 3 yrs $45mil
greatgame 2
Even that is a huge risky overpay
Michael Birks
Pomerantz just left the game with a forearm issue…. Boston might just be in the market for a starter
Solaris601
I’ve felt Lynn would be the best fit for BOS. He’s a mid-rotation innings eater who’s unspectacular, but dependable, and has post season experience. Arrieta is ideal, but the price in years and dollars is a bridge too far even for the Red Sox.
Michael Birks
Funny, I had been thinking the same thing about Lynn as the off-season wore on, I wondered/wonder if his price would drop enough for Boston to consider making an offer
Bert17
I agree. They’ve already got their projected 5 and 6 starters beginning the season on the DL and neither are reliable to begin with.
Since the Sox weren’t over the tax last year, they’d only lose the second round draft pick (and $500k of international money) for signing any of the QO free agents. If they signed Lynn or Cobb, they could turn around and trade E.Rod for more value in prospects than a second rounder and and what 500K buys on the international market.
deweybelongsinthehall
Eating inner is Steven Wright when he returns. Latest word is good. Rodriguez also but I’m not too high on him staying healthy. He probably has nothing left but I’d consider a cheap flyer on Lackey if anyone.
Polish Hammer
Cy Yong winner? And two egg rolls please..
DanielDannyDano
Here come the pillow contracts.
SG
The QO, loss of draft pick, is a price most top tier teams are unwilling to deal with.
Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer:
Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs
Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals
Alex Cobb, SP, Rays
Wade Davis, RP, Cubs
Greg Holland, RP, Rockies
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals
Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals
Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians
Notice that many are still FA’s.
The QO may have to go.
There are too many good players, listed above, that should have been signed by now and likely have been impacted by the QO rule.
I would like to hear what the justification is for the QO, from the teams standpoint?
Why should an old team have preferential treatment over all of the other teams?
1 year QO’s are a joke.
A 3 year $50M QO offer seems much fairer for both the player and for other competing teams.
Michael Chaney
This has nothing to do with the qualifying offer. Besides, a rebuilding team (the Phillies) gave up a pick to sign a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 (Santana). The QO and subsequent compensation aren’t even close to why these guys are still unsigned.
It’s because the guys that are still on the market are significantly overvaluing themselves. That’s it.
swinging wood
It has some to do with the QO. Maybe not as much in years past, but still material.
srechter
I agree. It’s a combo of both issues.
deweybelongsinthehall
Absolutely a combination. Players rejected $17M QO and have bruised egos when it’s their ego that often brings out the best in an athlete. Arrieta will probably do ok on an avg basis but short years. Others though will probably take a beating.
Pax vobiscum
The Phillies first round pick is protected.
BrewCrew82
All the QO does is make the offer from other teams less. If you think those players don’t have deals on the table pending their approval you are nuts. The teams have interests but need to take care of themselves too.
st1300b 2
The QO was about 17 mil for one season. Pretty sure they would take that now.
The home team has a right to offer a very strong offer to keep their fans favorites in town.
Omarj
I’d say Dodgers, Twins, Angels, make Arietta a 1 yr strong 1 yr offer.
ray_derek
That he would immediately decline.
SG
Yes, I too was wondering the logic of doing that?
Why would a team give up a 1st round draft pick for only a 1 year contract with Arrieta?
And why would Arrietta accept only a 1 year offer when he declined a 1 year QO and he could get a 4 year deal?
wscaddie56
If I’m the brewers, I offer 3/$45 M to Cobb and Lynn. If next summer goes the way people think, those will look like really good value at that point. Arrietta gets a 1/$20-25M offer from me.
I’d be ecstatic if any of those guys sign those deals.
BrewCrew82
Cobb is better than Lynn. Lynn’s stuff has been getting worse and worse over time and isn’t worth 12/yr much less 15.
bigcubsfan
The Cardinals seemed to think he was worth at least the qualifying offer amount. (greater than $12 million.) I don’t think the Cardinals are 100% Stew Pidd.
deweybelongsinthehall
They likely gave the QO believing he’d reject it just to get the CP. That’s true in many of the cases. Next CBA will probably have changes. Another lister suggested 3/$50M. Not sure of the amount but that seems about right. Look at the list of those that were given the QO and think about how many wouldn’t have been. Some would certainly have been offered more by now. Do you think the Mets would have given him what he got if there additionally was compensation? Expect the rules to also be changed to eliminate or modify the rule that removes compensation if the player is traded.
deweybelongsinthehall
*Mets-Jay Bruce
Rickeo02
Orioles’ are a shame
lord vincent
Where did that come from? Nobody mention the O’s
CowboysoldierFTW
They may be but that was random.
mike156
Signing Cobb or Lynn for 3/$42 is a perfectly reasonable gamble. If you can get them cheaper, so much the better.
And, there’s a price at which Arrieta is a reasonable gamble, but it’s going to be higher than 3/$42–significantly higher. If the signing team gets the second half 2017 pitching it’s worth a lot more than that, and Arietta can’t commit himself to what’s likely to be his last big score for that kind of money.
stevetampa
I’m 3/75 for Arrieta with a 4th year vesting based on IPs
2/30 for either Cobb or Lynn with similar vesting option
Coast1
I wouldn’t give up a draft pick for a 2 year contract with a vesting option. I’d much rather have a team option. A player can hit a vesting option even if he isn’t worth it as long as he’s healthy.
bhambravesfan
That is people overvaluing prospects. What are the odds that the #12 pick for instance turns in the production that Arrieta would over the next two years. Arrieta is no ones #4 here
mustache101
It’s not the “pick” that’s damaging it’s the money allotment from the draft spot that scares teams off… they use that money later in the draft to sign committed hs players and lure them from there commitment… it could potentially cost you that lost pick and possibly 1-2 high upside committed players (each with six years of cheap control you only have to hit on one to come out ahead) also that are takin later in the draft… AND it costs you the money of said signed player ex.. you sign Arrieta for 4/100… you lose the pick and the chance to sign 2 other later draft picks because you lost the slot money.. that’s potentialy 3 players you lost.. AND you have 25 mil more on your payroll annually… making it harder to do a team friendly extension with a current player not yet in arbitration due to payroll restrictions… if it wins you a ws it’s great if it don’t it could impact your club for years to come… that’s why teams are shy….the signing team gets hit twice… once for payroll and again during the draft let alone international slot money that can be lost also… that’s another loss for some teams.. so your thought of it’s just a draft pick is flawed… if the team was only charged a pick but was allowed to keep the slot money allotted to the pick and not be penilized internationally these players would get signed a lot faster
Gripper
I agree the money could be used later “if” they sign the pick way under slot. If they sign at slot, there is nothing left. If they don’t sign the player in that slot they lose the money. Doubtful you will get 1 or 2 HS players later unless the slot pick signs way under and that doesn’t happen much.
hawaiiphil
i could see arrieta getting an offer from phils– 4 yrs–
$23mil yr 1 &2, player option 3rd yr @ $20mil, but 4th yr being team option at 17mil.
1st 2 yrs are fairly valued, he gets option to take the $20mil for 3rd yr if he stinks in yr 2 or market is not there for him for yr 3, then phils get option to keep him cheap in yr 4 if he has a resurgence in yr 3.
twinsguy69
Twins are basically blue balling their fans. Taking us to the brink of contention but leaving us just a step short. Give us the happy ending we so richly deserve Falvey!
TwinsVet
Falvey is looking bigger than 2018. Be patient, embrace the process. We’re on the upswing and the future is bright.
HonestFeedback
Or they know that you’ll crucify them for that “stupid signing” when these guys are dead money in a few years.
rolafaive
Wow and they cry collusion,I realize you probably only get one shot in your career for the big payday, but lets get real here.
jobusrum9
Imagine if Jeter and the fish weren’t trying to get payroll down to $55mil. They could of very easily added some really good arms to their already potent offense for peanuts this off-season.
Basically if they could of found a way to move Prado and his 2years $30mil, Volquez has $13mil, Chen is outrageous at something like 4/$68mil if you include the player option, that’s not even including guys like Ziegler, Tazawa, etc… guys who are getting close to $10mil season.
Those players alone are wasting around $50mil per season. Just getting rid of half of them would of allowed the fish to add both Cobb and Lynn to their rotation this off-season.
While not extremely top heavy that rotation could of easily won a WS with the lineup they already had in place and all could of been done for less then $110mil per season in total payroll.
Urena
Straily
Cobb
Lynn
Chen(if he couldn’t be moved)
Conley (if they moved Chen)
-Lineup
Gordon
Yelich
Ozuna
Stanton
Bour
Realmuto
Dietrich
Rojas/Anderson
That’s a hell of a team for around $100mil. Better then most of the teams in the league that are paying over $150mil per season.
padam
Problems are:
1. Teams that have money are rebuilding and Arrieta alone wouldn’t make a difference.
2. Teams that are rebuilding typically wouldn’t want to give up their picks.
3. Big market teams are all tied up with big contracts. Luxury tax would be an issue.
4. His ask for years and dollars at his age aren’t a wise investment over the long term for anyone interested.
He’s in a bad spot. Especially with other options out there and still available.
Hot Corner
Arrietta is, in my opinion, not a good fit for the Nats. They don’t need him. The Nationals are the best team in the national league and the only thing that was holding them back (Dusty Baker) is now gone. If the Nationals sign anyone it should be Lucroy and that’s it. Did I make any grammar mistakes?
Bryzzo2016
Hahaha, best team in the National League? They can’t even win a playoff series. The Cubs and Dodgers are the class of the NL. There’s a reason that played each other in the NLCS the last two years, there is a reason the Cubs have gone to 3 straight NLCS. I see no reason why it won’t be a 4th straight trip and it’s a safe bet it will be the 3rd for the Dodgers.
michaelw
I agree on the Luc deal. The Nats are NOT the best team in the NL – Really it is pretty tight between LAD, Chi and Wash no matter what you want to believe or deny. Paper means nothing. I do think they are neck and neck in pitching. I personally like Mad Max over CK – I think CK has hit his peak. No doubt still one of the best if not the best but I think Max is right there on his tail. CK has been hurt now for a few years. This year will be the tale of the tape. he also getting older.
Pitching wise I still give it to the Nats. Chi close. I think Wood and Hill over achieved last year, and that won’t be a repeat of this year. CK still CK.
As far as hitting I don’t think Wash is not the best.
The ranking as of the end of 2017 were
Chi 4, Wash 5 LAD 12 Hitting
In Pitching it was LAD2, Wash 6 Chi 7
So I disagree there. They are all pretty even no matter what you want to think. I agree The Nats have NOT won a play off series. This is the last chance for Wash. so until they do they have proved nothing.
michaelw
So as you can see Hot Corner they are pretty much dead even –
Wash 6 Chi 7 in pitching
Chi 4 Wash 5 in pitching.
Which is probably why the series went 5 games down to the wire.
(Theses sortable stats mean a lot when it comes to a whole team. Not so much as a player. But tells the tale of the tape for how a team is.
LAD were 2nd in pitching but they hit a HOT Astro team who were ranked #1 in hitting last year.
When the Cubs won it all in 2016 The Cubs ranked #1 in Pitching and #2 in Hitting which is why the won 103 games and the WS.
Usually if your in the top 4 in pitching and top 10 in batting you will get far in post season. That is the measuring tape. Not we have this guy or that guy.
Just remember the Cubs added Darvish, Marrow and 3 other Pen guys this year vs a bad season last year well if you call being ranked #7 in pitching bad – I wouldn’t count on Wash yet. I agree LAD and Cubs will meet for the 3rd straight year.
Please tell me the last time a team went to 4 straight NLCS. You have to back up to 70’s I believe. Maybe the Great depression. Then to the 60’s.
People make fun of the Cubs but yet they have records no one will break. They may only have 3 WS but they still have 17 NL pennants which is 4th best in the National league. That is two less than St.L for all their bragging rights lol. Which the Cubs still own the over all series against them. They still own the best regular season record in all of MLB since 2015. SO PSSSSF the Nats. Nats Play off appearances 4 games series won ZERO witha big Z in your FRO! lol
dunham
The problem with starting pitching nowadays, is these guys can’t even handle 6 innings anymore. That’s why middle relievers are getting paid and starter pay is on the decline.
astros_fan_84
Who actually wants their team to “win” the services of these starters? Most fans are hoping some other GM caves and overspends. Arrieta is declining, Cobb is not durable, and Lynn’s era from last year looks like a mirage.
These guys all look like #4’s. They just aren’t worth big bucks and few teams have big bucks for SPs that are likely to get hurt are have a 4.5+ era.
chesteraarthur
I wonder if Jake would take something like 5 years @ 50 guaranteed with performance escalators that could bring it up to 150m on the very, very slim chance he manages to be a quality pitcher for all 5 of those years
Bryzzo2016
THAT would be betting on himself for sure, Boras would never let him agree to it though.
michaelw
the odds of that happening are 1 and billion lol. That is 10 Mil a year – you can’t role the dice on performance at his age that low. Someone said it perfect, Boras – would never do that in a million years.
He will never get 200 or even 175 or even 160 at this point. Probably not even 150.
I’m betting 4 years 92 and that being generous with an opt out on the 3rd year.
If he is lucky and someone gets hurt durning ST he may beable to get a 5 year 120 deal – but doubtful
Gripper
I agree the money could be used later “if” they sign the pick way under slot. If they sign at slot, there is nothing left. If they don’t sign the player in that slot they lose the money. Doubtful you will get 1 or 2 HS players later unless the slot pick signs way under and that doesn’t happen much.
jd396
So does this mean Arrieta might not get $200m?
Cardinals17
It would be a pure shame if Lance Lynn did not get signed before the opening day of MLB. The guy currently has the best winning percentage of the entire Cardinals staff during his tenure with the Cardinals. With the exception of his year out with Tommy John, Lance Lynn a has been a durable consistent starter and a tops Innings eater. The MLB radio/Television Network are currently questioning all of the curious, irrational moves or rather non-movement of the Cardinals front office to further improve their team to become contenders this season. Signing Lance Lynn back would have made a lot more sense and money well spent rather than the dumpster diving Mozeliak has done after the Ozuna deal.
Bryzzo2016
You lost me at winning% No one with any real knowledge of the game looks at W/L when evaluating a SP.
michaelw
Then why wont the Cards sign him? They sure could use him.
Dad
Because Matheny doesn’t like him and he’s a wiseass to the press. Add that he seldom gets out of the sixth , taxes the bullpen ( innings eater doesn’t pass my eye test ) throws the MOST fastballs of any MLB pitcher and that’s why STL. Won’t resign him