TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has tweeted the full breakdown. DeJong will receive a $1MM signing bonus and $1MM salary this year. Thereafter, he’ll receive $1.5MM (2019 and 2020), $4MM (2021), $6MM (2022), and $9MM (2023). The first option comes with a $2MM buyout, the second a $1MM buyout.
YESTERDAY: The Cardinals have announced an extension with shortstop Paul DeJong, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported. DeJong is represented by the C.L. Rocks Corporation.
DeJong will be guaranteed $26MM over a six-year term, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). That includes $2MM in buyouts for a pair of club options that, per Goold, are valued at $12.5MM and $15MM, respectively. The $26MM guarantee on the extension breaks Tim Anderson’s record (six years, $25MM) for the largest sum ever guaranteed to a player with less than one full year of Major League service time. (Related: MLBTR Extension Tracker; Pre-Arb Extension Records).
The 24-year-old DeJong debuted with little fanfare last summer but quickly thrust himself into the national spotlight with a terrific .285/.325/.532 slash line and 25 homers through just 443 plate appearances in 108 games.
DeJong spent a bit of time at second base but spent most of his rookie season at shortstop, where Defensive Runs Saved pegged him as an average defender and Ultimate Zone Rating graded him slightly above. In all, he was worth 2.7 rWAR and 3.0 fWAR in his debut season — a strong enough performance to land him second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Cody Bellinger.
That strong rookie season wasn’t without its red flags, though, and DeJong will have some notable areas on which to focus for improvement in 2018 and beyond. Most significantly, the young slugger’s 28 percent strikeout rate and 4.7 percent walk rate each cast doubt on his ability to repeat his OBP and batting average, both of which were propped up to some extent by a .349 BABIP that looks poised for some regression. To his credit, DeJong did scale back his strikeouts and boost his walk rate over the season’s final five to six weeks, perhaps signaling that he’s already begun to make some adjustments. However, he’ll need to do so over the course of a full year to prove that this level of production is at least somewhat sustainable.
DeJong isn’t on track for Super Two status, so the Cardinals have bought out three pre-arbitration seasons and three arbitration years with today’s deal in exchange for control over his first two free-agent years. In doing so, they’ve bet a fair amount on DeJong remaining a productive cog in their infield for the foreseeable future. If he rewards that faith, however, the Cardinals will effectively control DeJong for the entirety of his prime without needing to pay for much, if any, of his decline phase. The guaranteed portion of the contract runs through DeJong’s age-29 campaign, while the two option years cover his age-30 and age-31 seasons.
From DeJong’s vantage point, he’ll now obtain his first baseball fortune three years ahead of schedule. The former fourth-round pick received a $200K signing bonus out of Illinois State in the 2015 draft but wouldn’t have been eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season. He’ll sacrifice some earning power down the line as a would-be 30-year-old free agent, though that’s the trade-off that virtually all young players make when locking in this type of financial security well in advance.
Early extensions of this nature have become a hallmark of the Cardinals’ front office, though the success rate on such long-term deals probably hasn’t been as high as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch would like. The Cards have done well thus far in long-term arrangements with Carlos Martinez and Matt Carpenter. However, last year’s extension with Stephen Piscotty didn’t pay dividends as the team hoped — he’s since been traded to Oakland — nor did Allen Craig’s five-year deal (although the Cards were able to trade him before thatdeal imploded). The jury is still out on Kolten Wong’s five-year, $25.5MM deal, though Wong rebuilt his value last season after a poor 2016 campaign.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Why tho he is at best a 240 hitter with 40 bombs and 40 stolen bases
I find everything you just projected as very unlikely. He’s not too quick, or a particularly skilled base stealer, so 40 stolen bases I think would be unlikely. DeJong has power, but I don’t think he was the power for 40 bombs, maybe 35 or so at very best. And I imagine he could hit for decent average once he gets out of his habit of swinging at everything, perhaps not amazing, but above .240.
38 total home runs last year. Math.
And you obviously don’t know what you’re talking about.
He probably won’t be producing like he did this year in the future but getting him for like 4.5 mill a year for the next 6 years is a neat deal, even if he ends up a backup.
He’s more of a 30 maybe 35 home run guy. And he had 1 stolen base the whole season. He hit .285 which is good and is probably going to be on average a .260 hitter.
His glaring problem is lack of walks and a strikeout rate.
He didn’t hit 38 hr’s last year! He hit 25!
Psst he said total.
psst… facts have no effect on bruce wayne
You do recall that 13 of those were in the PCL, right? For all we know, he very well could hit 40 homers in his prime, but you certainly don’t just add up homers hit in one of the most offensive-driven Minor Leagues in existence as a direct correlation to the Majors.
Psst! In the Majors !
This is all predicated off the 1st guys comment, that “at best” he is a 40/40 guy. Like that’s a bad thing?!?
40 steals is laughable for him. However, if he had the AB’s in the majors I think maybe he could have hit 5-10 more MLB HR’s and 40 doesn’t seem as impossible as 40 steals, that’s all.
Sup Luke
I don’t see too much of a problem with what I it predicted. But I don’t think that will happen.
Meant to say you not I it.
Hell, that’s what baseball is all about these days. Launch Angle=High production, low batting average. When you hit the ball on the ground, the average goes up. Hit it in the air, the average goes down. It’s just a known baseball fact.
He hit .285
Ball goes up, ball comes down. You can’t explain that!!1!
sometimes it goes over the fence
Psst! You’re a douche nozzle !
The douche nozzle is clearly the one who uses that same insult in every thread.
Lol trying to argue that he isn’t worth an extension, notes potential 40 home run power and potential 40 stolen bases.
He won’t be 40 40 over next 2 seasons
He had one steal last year. Who other than you projects him to ever get 40 in a season
I’d imagine every team would be more than happy to pay 6/26mm for a .240av with 40hr/40sb..
I suppose his BA expectations are somewhat a matter of opinion depending on if someone feels he can improve his plate discipline or not and how lucky he was with BABIP. I think 40 homers is a bit much, but with 25 in 443 AB’s I guess it is in striking range. I wouldn’t count on it though! However the 40 steals you pulled straight out of your ass!
DeJong posted 140th on StatCast’s Speed leaderboards with 27.8 ft/sec, so I️ doubt he’ll steal 40 bags
Mike Shannon is the one behind this extension, he wants to finish out his broadcasting year rhyming dejong with Wong on every double play
Except their names don’t rhyme
Seems a bit quick to me. He hasnt even been up one year. Didn’t they learn their lesson from the quick extensions to Craig and PIscotty? Perhaps even Wong.
I think he will be a good ballplayer, but i am not sure SS is his final position, and i have yet to see him play 3b at the bigs enough to warrant a future there either.
to me he is a .265 avg, 20 Hr, 80 rbi guy with average defense. which is plenty valuable, but i dont see why they couldnt have waited to make sure he isnt going to bust in his second year.
Diaz seemed a pretty sure bet last year and look where that went.
A good extension is very valuable so i will wait to see the financials, but this just seems way to quick for a guy who hasnt proved he can adjust to the rest of the league getting a chance to adjust to him
Why? An extension prior to sophomore season is stupid and a definite roll of the dice. Do the forget about Bo Hart, great rookie and out of league the next year. Not sure about locking every guy that u think will stick.
Except Bo Hart only hit 4 HRs
Because they don’t have anything else in the pipeline for his position. As for the remainder of your comparison, they made out really well in both the Craig and Piscoty extensions.
Explain? Neither completed extension in St. Louis, and they got minimal in trade value for either.
Lackey was a minimal return? That alone would justify both.
You have an odd definition of minimal.
Joe Kelly also in deal, think we would like to still have him.
Joe Kelly is a teddy bear
They also got a draft pick when lackey left.. that trade was sneaky good.. Kelly is serviceable but that year of lackey at league minimum was a brilliant move. If you don’t think so I’d suggest you read more of the info available to the average fan theses days. Things aren’t evaluated with the eye test and heart anymore
Right! The Cards made out like bandits on that deal. Although, that doesn’t make the initial extension a good choice … it just means the Bo Sox made a bad one.
They did ok on Piscotty trade! One of the players they got is really tearing it up in ST!
right on…
In addition Dejong..was tied to the Cardinals with or without this contract. This will be a regretful contract. Now introducing Trevor Story Jr.
The organization knows more about DeJong than we do, and they are very analytically driven.
They know he isn’t Bo Hart, which everyone knew he was over performing when it happened.
DeJong is also very cerebral. He knows what he needs to do to be valuable, unlike a lot of players
Diaz was never the same after the broken wrist. A person loses a Lil range of motion when you break a wrist and to be a good hitter, having full range of motion in the wrist goes a long way.
That, and he was very easy to pitch to once the league realized he has one pitch he can’t lay off
Carlos Martinez worked well though. Piscotty was still able to be unloaded despite the extension. Wong is a little overpaid but that’s the risk you take for the potential reward. Little odd to see a guy like DeJong offered an extension so early though. His K issues scare me. 25+hrs will always play at SS assuming he’s good enough to stick there. If he has to move off of SS this will be a bad deal.
Wong is not overpaid ! He produces at a 2 war
Kolten Wong’s salary spikes to 10 million in 20. He’s done nothing to prove he’s a 10 million dollar player to this point. He’s not vastly overpaid but he wouldn’t have received that much in ARB raises based on his performance thus far. He still has time left to produce and realistically he’s probably only made 5-6 mil or so more than he would have without the extension.
1 WAR is worth 8 million a year.
No, it is not. It’s the value of a marginal WAR that teams are willing to pay for in free agency. No winning team can afford to pay that for every single WAR. They can only afford to pay that marginal rate because they have guys like DeJong who produced 3 WAR in 2017 for the MLB minimum.
One WAR is “worth” the total of all MLB payrolls divided by the total number of WAR.
It really is quite simple.
So what is that value them if it’s so simple.. I understand that the 8-9 MIL number is the price of war on the open market but it is a simplified way to see that the cardinals haven’t overpaid for wong or pisco or carlos yet. If they bank enough surplus to carry some dead weight at the end then it’s an even deal.. if those two option years on dejong are fruitful then the early payday was worth it.. scary as it is to most of us a 4.3 mil a year gamble to the cardinals is a drop in the hat
Generic statements like one WAR. Is worth 8 million is just second hand drivel from a guy who has read a fangraphs article. Saying something like that doesn’t account for a lot of things. Certainly doesn’t factor in the league minimum years they buy out for a huge premium. That’s how you can say a guy like kolten Wong will more likely than not have been overpayed relative to what he would’ve earned. Assuming he doesn’t have an insane season this year. There’s risk/reward in everything and these type of deals will never cripple you financially because the guarantees aren’t large. But they can certainly cost you a few extra million in the long run even if your player is reasonable productive. IE kolten Wong
WAR is worth about $4M/win. 1002 total WAR in 2017 vs $4.066B payroll.
That isn’t how the value is determined. You need to look only at the war and contracts of free agents to determine a market value.
I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but 2 WAR players have had very little value this offseason. The Rays gave away a 29 year old 2.5 WAR LF who was making less than $6 million. Carlos Gomez was a 2 WAR Player who just signed for 1/$4 million and 2 WAR Neil Walker is reported to have zero MLB offers on the table.
Well, it worked so well for Alan Craig and Stephen Piscotty. Let’s lock up Carson Kelly for 6 years too. Sarcasm… I note that because some people won’t get that I am being sarcastic. Trying to anyway.
To be fair, the jury is still out on Piscotty while Craig was excellent in the first year of his extension only to be derailed by a injury, and the Cardinals did actually manage to move both of those contracts and even got good pieces in return for them.
Well, worst case scenario, at least his defense will never be as bad as Diaz’s .
Although, I agree that it’s likely he moves to 3rd Base once Gyorko hits free agency in 2 years.
They were able to move Piscotty and Craig without much of an issue when they soured.
Wong has been fine, Martinez has been good, Pujols, Wainwright, and Molina all were extended earlier in their careers to what turned out to be team friendly deals.
These are risk adversed signings. If the player is willing, you always take the gamble as an organization.
Pretty good chance DeJong is a perennial 2 win player, easily justifying this deal. He gets the promise of a payday, and the Cards get cost certainty and some free agency control in case he is a good to great player.
No reason for any fan to be upset about this.
I highly doubt dejong develops into a great player. It’s notnlike they just locked up kris Bryant here. The dollars will never look bad in an extension this early in a career if you’re just looking at the size of the contract. They’re not hard to unload if the player is halfway decent. It just highlights how underpaid these guys are coming up. You can “overpay” a piscotty or Wong relative to what they would’ve earned in ARB and still have a reasonably fair priced contract. Like I said though, if dejong has to move to 3rd this deal won’t look so hot.
The challenge is that when guys prove it over a few years then they get very expensive to extend or want to wait for free agency. He has produced at every level and even if he regresses the cost is a very reasonable risk
He beat Hoskins in ROY voting?
Yes.
Could see this one going south in a hurry, Wong or Craig style. Analytics don’t back this up. Definitely don’t think he’s long term solution at SS.
Wong has been a productive player.
Yes he has. But it’s cool to bash on Wong. And most people just want to be cool.
Wong shouldn’t be mentioned with Craig for sure. He got the better end of the extension but he’s nowhere near that conversation.
But Craig wasn’t bad with the cards . That happened with the Red Sox!
Whose analytics are you using? Yours?
Talk about team friendly wow
DeJong isn’t the record for a player with fewer than one full year of MLS. Ryan Braun is. He signed an eight-year, $45 million extension in 2008 with only 129 days of service.
Braun had over one year service time.
its STUPID! Again the Cards can’t learn that it takes 2 yrs, at least to prove themselves at this level. Wong, Pisscotty, and many other’s we see that there talent decreases after a couple years.
Wong has improved, not regresses and he is worth more than his current contract.
Wong has definitely not improved from earlier in his career. He is staying consistent but has yet to be anything more than a 2WAR player
2 War players are worth what? Around 18 mil a year? Wong is set to make 4 mil this year and 6.5 next year.. it’s called surplus value boys and girls
You are delousional or just clueless if you think 2 WAR players are worth 18 million a year. And no bad contracts that make it look that way do not validate it
Some take this 1 War equals 8M or 9M thing too literally.
Lol. Tim Beckham must be a 24 million dollar talent based on that evaluation because he produced over 3 WAR last year. Zack cozart should’ve signed for over 30mil a year. Sometimes you have to think a little bit before you type something.
Sounds like you should do a little research because it’s common knowledge that with sabermetrics that 1 WAR equals 8 million. Now of course WAR is a flawed stat, but that’s just the way it is. So theres no need to be rude for no reason.
No it doesn’t. You. cant associate WAR with a monitary value. Its the market thats set for the value. In this current state if you think 2 WAR players are making 18 million a year on the market you really are insane.
1 WAR does not equal 8 million. See my response to you above.
Do you watch the Cardinals… How has he not improved?? His first full year in the league his slash line was .249/.292/.388. Last year it was .285/.376/.412. By any standards that is improvement, especially now that he learned he doesn’t need to constantly swing for the fences.
It means the valuation for free agency !
Doesn’t buy out any free agent years. What’s the point? Cards just have 26 million burning a hole in their pocket?
There might be options after the 6 years. But if not, if De Jong continues his success, he’ll get paid more in arbitration, rather than what he’ll get paid in years 4, 5, 6 of his deal, so it saves potential money.
Pretty sure it buys out 3
I think it’s funny people keep taking about Piscotty, Craig and Wong like the Cardinals failed there. They traded Piscottty and Craig for pieces they needed and Wong is still plenty worth the contract and a solid 2B.
While you think you are giving reasons not to hand out these extensions, you’re actually showing why you should give out these extensions. Even when the player doesn’t break out into a stud, these types of contracts are easy to get rid of and don’t weigh a team down even if they don’t work out.
This.
^ This. Thank you, stl_cards16. Too many moronic comments that I won’t waste my time arguing with. Do carry on with the dumbing down of the Cardinal fan base.
Its not a bad contract, just not necessary. Unless Dejong turns into a superstar which is unlikely he never would have got 26 mil in arbitration. The only way this deal is worth it is if he turns into a star which is not exactly something to bank on
It’s for 6 years! That’s cheap!
He was already under control for 6 years for sure at a lesser rate
But why would a player agree to an extension this early unless the team took a little bit of risk?
If DeJong turns out to be a 3 WAR player (just continuing what he did in 2017), then the contract is a steal and the Cards make out like bandits, because the club options turn it into an 8/51 deal and probably cost DeJong a decent chunk of money.
If DeJong falters to a 2 WAR player then the Cards still make out pretty well.
The Cards risk is that DeJong completely busts, but based on his MiLB track record that seems unlikely.
As a Phils fan this looks like a VERY team friendly contract to me.
Good analysis.
Piscotty and Craig trades were salary dump moves, yeah we got Lackey in Craig deal but also gave up Joe Kelly who has become an excellent reliever who will pitch well into future. Dejong will be bust…high strikeouts and mediocre batting average.
Piscotty brought back two quality infielders, one being in the top 10 for cardinals prospects…… that trade wasn’t just a “salary dump”
Piscotty is making 1.3 mil this year and that was his salary last year.. not exactly a salary dump eh? He doesn’t get pricey until 2019 and it’s still a n affordable 7 mil.. read people read and learn
When you look at a contract you evaluate it based on all years and the production for those years.
What about kris Bryant! Look how much he changed his strikeout rate from hit rookie year! Struck out rates don’t stay the same throughout a whole career!
Agreed. Even Albert Pujols struck out significantly more often in his amazing rookie year than he ever did again until he matched the total this past season when his overall value completely collapsed.
So batting average
and strikeouts is how you determine a good player now?
Finally , somebody who has some sense
And knows some baseball ! StLouis cards 16!
Im glad one season warranted a SIX YEAR EXTENSION.
For 4.5 M a year it isn’t exactly breaking the bank and it will save the team in arbitration salaries and potential salary later with the option years.
No but if he flops, which I believe he probably will, you’ll have a hard time finding anyone wanting to hold onto him for 6 years.
Don’t think that will be a problem. A rebuilding team would take him.
A rebuilding team wants prospects not suspects
Where did you get your crystal ball assassin ?
they have control of him for 5 more years. They weren’t going to lose him no matter whether they gave him the extension or not. Plus they do have SS’s that could be ready in that time period Sosa, Perez, Robertson, Munoz is already kind of ready.
DeJong’s bat, if he is even close to his rookie year, will play at third, where the Cards have nothing in the pipeline, and that is assuming that any of those players are 1) a better SS and 2) actually make it to the MLB.
That is a good and fair if not a little too antagonistically said point. I would only add to say that while, yes, the Craig, Piscotty and Wong deals in of themselves werent bad, the byproduct of giving a guy a contract like those usually turns into giving those players playing time even if they do not deserve it. So while the returns when they are moved in the end (or not) are still valid the time UNTIL they are moved can potentially have negative effects as well.
It doesnt make your point invalid, but i do think there are other factors that go in.
There’s nothing team friendly about it.
3 pre arbitration seasons = 3 years @ league minimum (just over $500,000)
3 arbitration seaasons = 3 years @ ?
Look at Drew Stubbs. DeJong is probably a similar type player. Stubbs pulled down 2.8, 4.1, and 5.8 million in arbitration.
Those 6 years add up to 14 million. To get to the 26 million mark, he’d have to earn like 5 million, 8 million, 12 million his arbitration years. Seems like a lot of risk for St. Louis to assume he’s going to keep on producing anything like he did.
I don’t like this for St. Louis at all.
If DeJong’s transition to SS truly takes and he ends up being not atrocious there, while banging 20-25 HR’s per year, he will provide plenty of value.
Also curious how you picked Stubbs as a compliment seeing as how he only hit more than 20 homers once in his first 6 years.
Home runs get rewarded in arb and 5/8/12 actually seems pretty realistic, if not a bit low in year 3.
Comparing those 2 is like comparing apples to oranges! Plus how long ago was Stubbs contract ? Price of contracts have went way up since then!
And yeah the kind of do. New media contract and 50 Mil from the sell off to Disney. Payroll is still below last year’s level. They won’t sign any big name FA’s, so yes, they have money burning a hole in their pocket.
These gambles that the Cardinals make rarely pan out, however, when they do work they get an all-star caliber player at a low market price.
For instance, Carlos Martinez is becoming a class A number 2 starting pitcher or possible ace in his prime. The Cardinals only pay him $11 million per season for the next four years (through his age 29 season) and that is a definite bargain being that other pitchers of his caliber will command twice that amount.
They see it as the money they save from getting one all star out of every five early contracts they sign as a sound financial gamble. The players that turn out to bust on them (Diaz and Piscotty for example) can always be traded to a team that still sees potential in them as they are still in their prime age. Their contracts are bit overpriced but not so bad that even a small market team can take a flyer on them opening up their trading possibilties.
This is an interesting GMing strategy and I can see other teams take this route to avoid constantly being in rebuild mode. It would be wise for a team such as the Mets to follow suit, however, they seem to be intent on signing declining players to constantly fill spots.
They didn’t pay Diaz but $8 million for 4 years!
Molina, Wainwright, Martinez, but you’re right, contract extensions for the Cardinals never work out.
But if he does break out, and he is who St Louis saw last year, it could be an okay deal.
Or if he improves….
I mean, Look at the great deal they signed Mikolas to. lol
Your point in Mikolas is what? The season hasnt even started
yet
and you have nothing to judge him on!
If this guy is the long term answer then it is a cheap price to pay, and two club options too. This could definitely go the Cardinals way if he ends up being a good player.
6/26 is a very reasonable gamble. This is a win-win-win. The cards get financial certainty, Dejong gets financial security, and it sends a pretty unusual but powerful message to other players (FA’s and prospects) that this is how STL does business. I can see this strategy attracting players to sign there in the future. Makes sense.
Interesting to me from the standpoint of Diaz performing similarly the year before. They made the right call not to extend him. It speaks volumes to how much they believe in Dejong
How many of these early extensions have worked out for STL?
All of them. Craig turned into year and a half of lackey at league minimum, piscotty turned into two good prospects, one who is tearing it up right now. And Wong and Martinez both still have value above their respective contracts. By definition those were all good signings that were below value and had no problem trading them. Craig was bad for Red Sox, not cardinals. So better question is which ones haven’t worked out? Also sends message that if you come up with cards you’ll get paid and paid early as opposed to other clubs that if you come up with them you’ll be yanked around with the eligibility clock to extend the amount of time a team can have you for minimal amounts. So much so that you file a lawsuit against the team you play for. Which model looks better to prospects and international signings trying to make it to big leagues?
Piscotty didn’t turn into two good prospects. He turned into one decent one and one bad one. And just because they traded them doesn’t mean they aren’t bad.
Who are you saying are good and bad of the two? I’d say both are two win players at floor. Shrockcan hit and Munoz has a decent ceiling.. pretty good return for a guy who put up less than a win last year
Schrock looks good but the other guy doesn’t. He has a lot of sub .600 ops seasons in the minors
The “other guy” hit two home runs in the same inning last week. Both with contribute nicely at the big club
Ok? A one game sample size over many years in the minors? Not a smart way to judge players
Many years? LoL! Ok.
good for him- 4th round pick signed for just 200k.
always interesting how drafts work out- Cards spend 5 million on first 3 picks of that draft and don’t have much to show for it., but then Bader and Dejong for combined 600k as underslots in rounds 3 and 4.
I am getting very tired of these deals fished out the Cardinals. Yes it essentially gets arbitration out of the way early, but the recent track record has been atrocious with deals like this.
We’ve seen this with Allen Craig and he wound up getting dealt. We’ve seen this with Stephen Piscotty and he wound up getting dealt. We’ve seen this with Aledmys Diaz and he wound up getting dealt. We’ve seen this with Kolten Wong and he has been rather underwhelming. I notice a trend with these contracts for the Cards and I’m not a big fan of them.
They signed Diaz as an international free agent, 4 years at 8 million total. They received more than 8 million in value for his one good season, and then traded him for a prospect flyer. It was a net positive for the organization, even if you assume the prospect they received never does anything.
The Craig deal was also a net positive. Piscotty deal is dependent on outcomes of Munoz and Schrock. Seems like a potential positive.
Some people are saying it’s to early and are comparing it to Craig, Piscotty, and Wong but this guy isn’t getting paid 15 mil a year, the Cards have a crap ton of money while I think they should be using it on a guy like Arrieta I still think this was a good move because you lock up a young guy with great potential and if it doesn’t work out guys with theses types of contracts have good trade value. And as for the Piscotty, Wong, and Craig comparisons Craig brought back John Lackey who was very good with his time with the Cardinals, Piscotty brought back 2 solid prospects and I’d say Wong’s contract is a question mark but he’s coming off a good year so I don’t see this being a bad thing at all I mean gotta put the money somewhere
Everyone’s missing the fact that the “bad contracts” were not bad after all because the players still carried value above the contract otherwise they would not have been able to trade them. Wong and Martinez both carry value above their contracts as well. Bad contracts are ones that leave you stuck with a player because you can’t trade them. (See heyward, Ellsbury, pujols, etc.). Not ones that leave you with a tradeable piece. Dejong may or may not be that, time will tell. But saying Craig, piscotty, Wong, and Martinez were bad extensions is blatantly false.
Some are right. This deal isn’t really much short term and buys out his arby years. If he keeps up his production (which I doubt) it’s a steal. If he ends up about .770-.790 ops guy it’s a good deal for a minf with some pop who Ks too much and has trouble getting on. If he bombs you eat about half his deal and move him.
However I’d want to see more if I’m the Cardinals. I don’t get how they can find the money for this extension but can’t find it for a starter or a closer of at best league average pitching staff plus Yairo Munoz looks to be a good player at least on par defensively so for in ST (albeit playing 3rd, LF and SS).
It’s just another odd move in a series of odd ones after they traded for Ozuna.
Which starter or closer should they sign for $4 million a year that would help the team out? That’s what Dejong extension cost.
A little early I guess, but good deal for both sides. He does play a premium position. Tommy Pham has to be licking his chops!! Get of to a hot start in 2018 and then get a seat at table and say what’s up fellas!!
Pham’s birthday and early injuries in his career cost him a mega deal. It also likely cost him an early extension.
Risky business
Exactly the opposite of that. Signing big free agents, especially pitchers is risky. Darvish, heyward, price, Lester, greinke, Cabrera, pujols, Ellsbury, Cueto, etc are risky business. If they don’t pan out it can really hurt a team when they’re still paying them and they can’t be traded. The recent low cost extensions by cardinals were all low risk. 26 million over 6 years will not in anyway change any future plans, even if Dejong is a bust or gets injured. Wise extension? Who knows, only time will tell but it at worst it’s not going to change a teams outlook, so that would be by definition low risk.
It’s risky because he’s still unproven. Sure it’s not a crippling contract, but it is risky.
Yeah but if you wait until a player is proven then you wont get them for 6 years $26 million. So you roll the dice and best case scenario he’s a star at a very affordable price, worst case he’s a bust and you’re out $26 million. In today’s salaries, so what. It’s what you call a high reward low risk deal. From players standpoint it is guaranteed money early instead of risking injury. The higher risk move for cards would be to wait and then if he’s a superstar you can’t afford him or you’re paying him way more money.
Cardinals fans: “Spend money, DeWALLET!”
*FO spends money*
Cardinals fans: “Not like THAT”
Yes, flyballs turn into outs and extra base hits, but also are more likely to turn into outs. Groundballs turn into singles but also turn into double plays. The Cards have some players -particularly Matt Carpenter – who basically never hit into double plays. I think the few points of average players like that lose are more than made up for by the extra power and the fewer GIDPs.
i’m not a cards fan, but amen to the points on your post
good for this kid!
if it doesn’t work out, the cards can afford to make slight mistake .
It’s just over 4.3 million a year on average. Even if he doesn’t progress much that isn’t a lot of money compared to what others get who have lesser numbers. I’d do this deal all day.
Note to all other MLB teams, especially the ones who are currently tanking or have tanked – this is how you compete year after year and don’t tank and still get a few world series trips and a couple titles. Not by trading away homegrown players and signing big name free agents. Just saying. If he maintains his rookie year, this becomes extremely cheap. If not then not much invested and probably not hard to trade him away and bring next man up.
“Mike Shannon is the one behind this extension, he wants to finish out his broadcasting year rhyming dejong with Wong on every double play”
Then Shannon should advocate they sign this guy to play 1B:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hong–000cha
DeJong to Wong to Hong!
Love it when a plan comes together…..
Nice thought. But Dejong isnt pronounced DeJong.
I suspect that as we get closer to the end of the current CBA in 2021 we will see more teams trying to lock in these type of agreements w/ their young productive players before the system changes dramatically. Teams aren’t going to be able to suppress salaries for these young productive players much longer and the battle is going to be epic. Wonder how long the strike/lockout will last.
Off topic, but to the mods, whenever I click Reply to reply to a post, a new tab opens up.
Appears the only thing I can type is on the bottom. (Currently using Chrome on a laptop)
This is happening to me as well, and I’m also using Chrome which is why my recent comment, which was meant as a reply to a much earlier comment, didn’t make sense
Stupid decision!
“Off topic, but to the mods, whenever I click Reply to reply to a post, a new tab opens up.
Appears the only thing I can type is on the bottom. (Currently using Chrome on a laptop)”
Same here, so it’s not just you.
Using Brave on a laptop.
MB and David — I’m experiencing the same issue, now that you point it out. Having a developer take a look. Thanks for the heads up to both of you.
This is seriously going to burn them. DeJong walked less than 5% of the time and had a BABip near .350.
He just reminds me of a slightly better version of Schimpf.
An extension like this, to a player who has seen a year or less of MLB time is always a risk, but at the worst, he’s guaranteed only $26 million over 6 years, so if he does flop like Diaz did last year, he would not be too hard to move.
What’s the price per War these days? Couple years ago it was in the 5-7 mil range per each war.. so 4.5 or little less per year seems very economical doesn’t it? If not trade in your rock tablet and chisel at the door
It’s estimated between $8-9M, but that only applies to free agents. Players before free agency don’t make that, or else teams would be running $400M payrolls annually, so it’s not the best way to look at this particular contract. Still, it’s a good deal. I don’t think he’s good, really, but even if he regresses, $26M is nothing, as you pointed out.
Even this type of contract that doesn’t work out never goes wrong. Would the Astros rather not have signed Jon Singleton, or the White Sox not have signed Tim Anderson? Probably. Are either long-term franchise roadblocks? No.
Agreed it’s not the best way to look at it but it’s a starting point to realizing its not a bad deal at all.. even if he ends up in the Greg Garcia roll 4 mil is nothing
Oh yeah, I don’t disagree. Just noting that $/WAR alone, disregarding that DeJong was a pre-arb guy, would have pushed his likely guarantee over $100M, but that would’ve been awful for the Cardinals, because they had all the leverage
Exactly. the way to figure what, in totality, MLB teams are willing to pay for a win is to divide the total number of wins in a season (1,215) into the total payroll of all MLB teams.
If total payroll is ~$4B, then on average teams are willing to pay ~$3.3MM for a win.
It’s $ 9 million per war
Although this deal doesn’t buy out any of his free agent years, I think we’ll see a trend where younger players are more likely to take these extensions and think twice about betting on themselves after seeing this winter of free agent awkwardness that continues to drag on. The big payday on the horizon is anything but certain.
The deal has two club options that could make it an 8 year deal. That is some of his free agent years right there.
That’s why DeJong got paid a little more than he probably would have the first 6 years – because the club options are totally at the team’s discretion, have value, and are not guaranteed money.
The Cards had to give a little to get those option years, and if he’s still a 3 WAR middle infielder at that time, the options years could be really cheap for the club. If they’re not, they cut him loose.
Wasn’t he a part of some scientific study in partner with an old prof from isu and mlb on exit velocity or launch angle or something? Also read an article about him that stated something along the lines of he just planned on going to med school and didn’t see baseball in his future until around his junior season in college? He’s an intelligent kid who I think if given the right tools and knowledge and saber related material that he could use it and grow leaps and bounds.. hell he learned ss in like half a season plus the fall league and got to the show and hit well.. I’d hedge my bets on him out performing this deal.. even if he slides to third in a few years
They had to throw out 28% of the results because he missed the ball.
Strikeouts are up across the league are they not? Launch angle us a thing because of the shift.. guaranteed ground out into the shift or take the chance of getting a knock over the infield or a drive? The game is changing and will continue to change.. his biap is worrisome but I’ll still take the bet he outperforms this deal.. and again if he banks surplus value early and drops performance late it’s still a good deal kids
Well, looks like De Jong is pretty confident that he is no Altuve. Otherwise, he didn’t learn the lesson. He basically traded his entire “useful” career (according to today’s GMs – through his age 32 season) for $52M. AAV of about $6.5 (incl. options), which is a decent salary for a good player in arb year 2. He gets security, but I think he could’ve become secure enough without trading away any chance at a good FA payday. Oh well. He’ll probably prove to be a flash in the pan, so good for him.
This worked out well for Wong too. Just wait until there’s a scouting report out on him and guys know how to pitch him. Next year he’ll hit .265 with 21 homeruns in an era where the balls are juiced isn’t very impressive. can someone explain how there was more homeruns last year than when Barry hit 73 and everyone was on the juice..?
Saw Paul Delong hit a bomb at the Iowa cubs last year
These signings are always risk adversed.
If the player is willing, the organization should always take them with a starting player.
DeJong gets a promised payday, can see free agency again one day potentially. The Cards get cost certainty, and potentially savings and control if he is a good to great player one day.
If he’s not, then they sank what they probably would have spent trying to extend his arb out eventually, and the deal is unlikely to ever be unappetizing to another organization in the event of a trade.
That, and this is a weak position on the farm.
Looks like he’ll be a Cardinal for DeLong haul!
Since Matt Carpenter’s long term deal was signed, he has had injury plagued seasons that has made him a mere image of himself of his first 2-3 seasons. It looks like injuries will plague him again this season again, since his current injuries are the same he began having 2 seasons ago.
Carp is having back problems this spring
and should be ready soon . It has nothing to do with the shoulder problems he had last year!