Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.
The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…
Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.
Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.
Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“
Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.
Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.
A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?
johnny53811
Starters are bound to go down throughout spring training. 3B are less likely so I think it will be hardest for moustakas to find a job… unless he lowers his price. As for Cobb he should’ve taken that $42 because he’s not even worth that
TomBradyrings
I usually don’t side wth the players but Cobb is worth more than that. Guy held is own in the AL East could be a number 2 in the NL.
One Fan
How is he worth more if no other team thinks so
kbarr888
Old Standard……
“He’s Only Worth What Someone Will PAY For Him.”
That’s all she wrote
jleve618
I bet you would bid against yourself as a GM.
jordanrulestheworld
“I usually don’t side with players” lol. Sports the only time ever everyday working people side with billionaire owners over the working class. Incredible
Groucho
Professional athletes making 8 figure salaries are the working class? I know one thing they don’t worry about every day: money. How about: professional sports is the only sector of the economy where Unions still have real power? That’s unbelievable…
insane trades
Arrieta wishes he could redo the FA offseason. This cannot be good on the mental side of his game.
chgobangbang
Borass comparing arietta contractually to grieneke price and max S is rather comical! SHOCKA he’s still unemployed
One Fan
Arrieta is a clown and getting bad advice from Boras
Cardinals17
Boras seems to be pricing his own clients out of the market with his unhinged mouth. If I were over 31, I wouldn’t want Boras as my agent anymore. He’s comparing apples to oranges. That won’t work in this world of metrics.
Phillies2017
Moose is in the worst place. All the other guys could theoretically get a 1-year deal and reenter the market without a QO but Moose cant do that based on the market.
His best bet is a 3-year deal with an opt-out after 2 at about $12m a year.
chgobangbang
Who wants to give up a draft choice on moose on a one year deal?
ShermansMom
Who is going to give Moustakas a one year deal for $50 million?
kbarr888
Nobody said Moose was taking a 1-yr deal…..
Howard-NY13
Jd martinez is the best free agent right now first of all. Because he still hasn’t signed with the Red Sox so.
CAngels4
He’s not a free agent anymore
acarneglia
The signing isn’t official due to medical complications
rez2405 2
He’s right he know
mike156
Lynn and Cobb will each find a home, and before Arrietta. 3 year deals. Neither is old, but they are still post injury. The signers might get lucky. 3/39 for Cobb, 3/45 Lynn
pdxbrewcrew
And that seems appropriate for those two. I wouldn’t doubt that that’s right around where most teams are pricing them. But I would imagine they’re looking for that fourth year, and I don’t think anyone is going to give them it.
Philliesfan4life
The phillies offered Arrieta a three year deal but they didn’t say how much per year, If it was 3 years for 75 plus a 4th or 5th year option. I would of taken it.
Cardinals17
Whoever gets Lynn, is going to get a reliable starter. Innings eater and has a good winning percentage with post Season experience galore.
Cat Mando
OK…everyone go into work Monday and tell your boss you deserve a raise because you have “prestige value”.
CursedRangers
Haha! I can only picture the laughter coming from my boss if I did that.
Cat Mando
I wonder if it would work in divorce court?
Daniel Youngblood
Prestige … stige … stige. Worldwide … wide. wide.
Phillies2017
**Boras’ Presentation**
Investors??
Possibly you!!
dugdog83
Deadliest catch without the crabs
Gwynning's Anal Lover
Can they file for unemployment within their respective states?
Joe Kerr
lol can you imagine that interview? Why are you unemployed, well because I rejected 42 million, so what can you give me until I sign?
Polish Hammer
Didn’t stop Kaepernick from opting out of a contract and then suing because nobody wanted to sign him.
bluegorilla
Le sigh
kleppy12
I know this probably a joke but no they cannot.
pdxbrewcrew
They’re probably eligible to apply, since most states consider professional athletes from team sports to be employees, not independent contractors. But they also have to accept any reasonable offer in their field to receive benefits. And turning down $10 million a year so you can get $13 million would probably be deemed unreasonable.
mbgutt
To bad pirates will not sign one or two of the starters
terry g
While I could see a one year pillow contract on several of these, the QO hurts. Can’t think of anyone that would want to sign a player to a one year and lose draft choices.
JeremyR
I believe a team now only loses a pick if the contract is $50 million or more. So a 1 or 2 or even 3 year deal might not involve a draft pick
ASapsFables
You belief is in error. Years or dollars associated with a signed contract have no bearing on the forfeiture of a draft pick involving a FA who rejected a QO.
The new rules involving draft pick loss by the signing team have changed from the old CBA but it involves what selection or selections are lost based on three criteria:
1-A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.
2-A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year’s Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick.
3-A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick.
hiflew
Am I the only one just seeing 5 of the top 10?
24TheKid
I see 5 as well.
Cat Mando
Because that’s all they listed….”Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned.”
24TheKid
I wasn’t saying it was a problem, I was just answering the question.
hiflew
Fair enough, but the headline made me think it was the top 10 still unsigned free agents. Just a strangely worded headline.
Cat Mando
I was just pointing out why there was only 5.
hiflew
It’s all good man.
kent814
What other types of free agents are there? Employed free agents?
swinging wood
Apologies from the staff at MLBTR for triggering your delicacies in being offended by the lack of an inclusion of an asterisk denoting that a free agent in the context of this article is as of November 2nd, 2017.
JFactor
I love how analytics are the problem according to Boras when the final two teams playing in the WS, and the last two WS teams are analytically driven.
Boras needs to learn to adapt.
PhanaticDuck26
haha, yea i found that funny as well. who needs numbers, right guys? baseball never relied on statistics! nevermind his plummeting performance since he threw 230 innings in 2015, my client has “”prestige” value and deserves a Scherzer contract. Boras is totally clueless at this point…
czontixhldr
I read that Heyman piece. He should be friggin’ embarrassed to put his byline on in. What a Boras ….. ok, I was going to write something really crude, but I know kids read this site so I didn’t.
I admire Boras – a very successful guy and he gets his guys paid, but WOW!
His definition of “prestige value” includes championships?
SFW. I’m a Phillies fan. IDGAS that Jake Arrieta won a championship somewhere else, and if Matt Klentak pays a premium for that BS, then MacPhail should fire him 5 minutes ago.
What a pile of dung.
JFactor
Moose needs to accept a one year, pillow contract. Show that the power is real, and raise his obp and then go to the suitor that losses out on Donaldson next off-season while not having a QO attached to him.
bluegorilla
He’ll not only be behind Donaldson. Machado is a tad bit better than Moose as well.
czontixhldr
Tad bit?
ASapsFables
It would appear that Mike Moustakas is in the toughest spot among these free agents due to the position he plays and the qualifying offer attached to him. The two teams that have been “loosely” associated with him are each still in rebuild mode and probably not inclined to punt a high second round draft pick in order to sign him because of the compensation. Unless some other team among the contenders loses a third baseman this spring his market figures to linger the longest among those listed here.
I’m sure the White Sox would have an interest in Moustakas with a weakness at 3B along with a need for a left-handed hitting power bat in the middle of their batting order. But the QO likely dissuades them from signing him unless “Moose” remains unsigned until June 4th when the Rule 4 amateur draft begins. It is at that date when QO compensation becomes null and void for any qualified FA who hasn’t inked a deal yet.
arc89
Problem is Boras with him. Boras claimed he was a $100 million player but its more like a 3/36 player. He will not come down on price so he will sit most of the year until June 4th and sign a 1 year deal to gain enough to re enter the draft next year.
HarveyD82
ichiro? has he been signed? someone could use him. one more year!
yoyo137
Scott Boras is on drugs talking about prestige value, analytics phenoms, and volcanoes of hot talent lava. Get this man some help
Solaris601
Boras is a used car salesman who wandered into the area of MLB player representation one day and conned everyone into believing he was legit. Can’t imagine his clients are too thrilled with him right now.
johnboy1963
Come on brewers sign Cobb or lynn either 1 would be your number 1 guy
srechter
Anyone think the Yankees could snag holland on a cheap, one year deal to even further add to a behemoth bullpen?
MC Tim C
That would be a waste of money. It wouldn’t be cheap either if it’s a one year deal. Why on earth would the Yankees sign another bullpen arm? That’s literally the last thing they need.
kbarr888
Doesn’t Holland have Draft Pick Compensation attached to him?
He refused a QO. from Colorado……
Kayrall
He also turned down the same offer that Davis accepted that set the record for AAV for relief pitcher. Holland is another one of those players that are significantly over valuing their talent.
One Fan
Holland is another idiot listening to that moron Scott Boras who screwed Holland by talking him out of accepting that deal
One Fan
So the Yankees will go over the tax and lose a draft pick to sign Holland for one year? And have Holland do what? Pitch the 5th?
And if Holland would be willing to sign a one year deal you think he would pick the Yankees where he will not close?
gookstyle
Angels NEED a closer. This “closer by committee” crap never works. Please Arte/Eppler: just sign him
brucewayne
It worked for the Reds
brucewayne
and the Nasty Boys when they won the WS in 1990 !
leprechaun
Both Cobb and Arrieta will wish they had accepted the Cubs offers, neither will get more now.
MC Tim C
Agreed. Especially Arrieta. He’s not going to get more years or overall money than Darvish no matter what nonsense Boras tries to sell.
whitemule70
“Prestige value.” Hilarious. Some people fall for this baloney? I hope not.
carlos15
Most of the players remaining are either not that good, their performance has deteriorated over previous years, they want way too much money, or they don’t stay healthy enough for teams to want to commit. It’s not a great free agent class and these guys have stupid expectations. It’s not collusion it’s common sense, this crop of players have many more downsides and risks than upside. It doesn’t matter anyway because they’ll all sign some bogus multi year dear with opt outs which is just protection for the player to cash in if there is a better market a year later or keep getting paid even if they suck.
bykoric
The fact that Arrieta isn’t signed yet is shocking. He’s got to have gotten like 3-$60, maybe 5-$100 at most and he’s still turning them down. You put him on a team like Milwaukee or St. Louis (or even the Dodgers) and they’re better because of it. Jake might not be the guy from 2014-2016, but he’s not your #5 starter… at worst he’s your #3. I blame his agent at this point. They have to know, the longer they wait, the smaller the deals get and no way in hell Arrieta makes that money back. And if he were to sit out like the year… he’d be luck to get a 2-year $10M per deal!
And as of today, I still think he’s going to be a mid-season signing. And I also wonder if he’s thinking he might as well screw the Cubs out of draft compensation out of spite.
bluegorilla
Why would he want to screw the Cubs? They allowed him to go back to his preferred mechanics. They were where he had his big league success. And the Cubs still gave him his 2 biggest contract offers – an extension 2 years ago and a chance at the Darvish contract a few weeks ago. Arrieta turned them down.
bluegorilla
*extension offer, obviously, since it wasn’t signed.
of9376
Signing Jake Arrieta is like buying a 2018 Mercedes-Benz with 100,000 miles on it. His arm won’t last through a 5 year contract.
I see him signing a 2yr – 36mil contract .
Dodgethis
I’m surprised more people don’t point out the three basic reasons for this season’s free agent market.
The crazy crop of free agents next year.
The big spender teams are resetting their tax penalty for next year’s free agents.
The age and talant level of the current free agents.
It’s obvious to me but I’m an outsider. I don’t have all the information.
PhanaticDuck26
pretty sure those topics have been analyzed in painstaking detail throughout this slllloooowww offseason
One Fan
Dodgethis you nailed it
JeremyR
That only explains the rich teams not spending, it doesn’t explain the mid level teams not spending.
The Brewers did all this work, to improve their lineup but have no starting pitching. 2 out of 3 of Arrieta, Lynn, and Cobb would make them go from a .500 ish team to a wild card team
daveineg
Their “no starting pitching” top 3 starters heading into the season went a combined 42-23 with a combined 3.58 ERA last season. Nelson is on schedule to return in June was 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA last year.
Among the guys battling for the remaining spots are the current #61 prospect per BA who posted a 3.28 ERA in his first 6 major league starts before a couple of clunkers to close it out plus the guy who pitched so well in 2016, he was their 2017 opening day starter plus their one time ace, who’s in the Brewers all time top 10 in virtually every category. and a soft tossing but effective lefty who pitched so well in a playoff race that the team won 5 of his 6 starts in September.
Keep thinking the Brewers have no pitching.
conch
To me, they can put their arms where their mouths are. Sign for 3 Years with an heavy incentive laden deal. Perform and get paid.
FriendOfBoras
Not sure how Arietta is still a free agent, not too often you find an ace without a job.
One Fan
Arrieta is not an ace and there are not any aces currently without a job
ASapsFables
Define ace.
Among the 3 teams most likely to sign Arrieta, would he not be considered the ace of both the Phillies and Brewers for the upcoming season? As for the third club, the Nationals, he would slot in #3 behind two pitchers who are each considered “aces” in their own right, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.
Arrieta was in a similar situation with the Cubs. He was not considered the “ace” heading into his historic 2015 season. Jon Lester was considered the ace on opening day. There is no question that Arrieta was the North Side ace as the team headed in to the postseason.
czontixhldr
“Among the 3 teams most likely to sign Arrieta, would he not be considered the ace of both the Phillies and Brewers for the upcoming season? ”
Actually, in Philadelphia he’d probably be the #2.
Yes, Nola s only 24, but he’s not even in his prime, whereas Arrieta has declined the last 2 years.
Arrieta would only be the #1 in Philly in terms of “prestige value”.
Pedro Cerrano's Voodoo
I really hate Scott Boras.
mickey802
Moose takes a 1 year deal and then Machado goes to the market next year. Take a 2 year deal for 12 million per year and see ya on the Yankees.
tigerdoc616
I’d be surprised if any of these guys remains unsigned by opening day. Agents job is to get his client the best contract he can. But at the end of the day no one gets paid if the player does not sign.
Darrylx77
I want to thank Jake Arrieta for the wonderful years that he gave the fans of Chicago! The Cubs have tried to sign him for the last three years and he has turned down every offer! I think that his ego has done him in! This divorce has been in the works for the last three years! I wish him the best and I will not be surprised if we see him trying to stick it to the Cubs by signing a lowball deal with the Cardinals or with the Brewers!
ASapsFables
Jake Arrieta can also “stick it to the Cubs” by signing with the Nationals who they may have to go through in the postseason in order to reach the World Series. A top three rotation in Washington featuring Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Arrieta would be no picnic and matches up favorably with any elite trio in MLB including the Cubs.
brucewayne
Yup! That will really show em
brucewayne
Arrieta signing a lowball deal will surely put him winning over the Cubs! LoL
Ski to Coors
Holland would be OK to wait past opening day. Wait for a team to realize they need a closer in a month or two. Surprised the Cards haven’t paid him his money yet.
jd396
If Arrieta still thinks he’s ever going to get a 200m contract without it being in yen, he’s going to be watching a lot of baseball on TV.