Unfortunately for those who follow baseball, the most popular topic in the sport this offseason has been the historically slow free-agent market. Upward of 100 players remain without contracts as spring training nears, but the good news is that the top available veteran finally came off the board Saturday.
The six-year, $126MM agreement the Cubs reached with right-hander Yu Darvish will hopefully lead to a flurry of signings in the near future. Regardless of how the majors’ other 29 teams react, it likely concludes the offseason heavy lifting for Cubs president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, who have added Darvish, two other starters (Tyler Chatwood and the injured Drew Smyly) and a pair of established relievers (Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek) to a club that ruled the National League Central in each of the previous two years.
Even without Darvish, the Cubs probably would have entered 2018 as the popular pick to win the division, though arguments could have been made for either the rival Brewers or Cardinals to seriously challenge for the crown. Both Milwaukee and St. Louis have been active this offseason after nearly making the playoffs last year. As things stand, though, they’re clearly looking up at a Cubs team with a set rotation (Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood) and an enviable group of position players. There was speculation earlier in the offseason that Chicago would deal from its lineup and/or farm system to boost the front of its rotation, but bringing in Darvish officially took that possibility out of play.
Along with retaining their position players and prospects, there are other other obvious benefits to picking up Darvish, including that he’s a tremendous starter who should boost the Cubs’ World Series chances in the coming years. The towering flamethrower, who emigrated from Japan in 2012, generally thrived with the Rangers and Dodgers, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll fail in Chicago in the near term. Speaking of the Dodgers, they rank as arguably the prominent concern in the NL for the Cubs (with Darvish’s help, they upended Chicago in the NLCS last season), so pilfering the 31-year-old from LA makes the signing all the more satisfying for Chicago. Plus, because Darvish was part of a midseason trade and wasn’t eligible for an offseason qualifying offer, reeling him in won’t cost the Cubs anything in draft-pick compensation or international bonus pool money.
With Darvish now in the mix, the Cubs will say goodbye to free agent Jake Arrieta, who did receive a QO after the season. When he heads elsewhere, Chicago will nab a pick after the second round of this year’s draft in return. Of course, even though Darvish is more hyped than Arrieta and will likely end up with the bigger guarantee of the two this winter, some may prefer the latter. The soon-to-be 32-year-old Arrieta wasn’t great last season, when he alarmingly lost some velocity, but he has been the more successful of the two in recent years. During his run as a Cub from 2014-17, Arrieta ranked third among starters in ERA (2.67), fifth in fWAR (18.5) and collected a Cy Young Award (2015).
Even if you’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta, the contract comes with some risk for the Cubs (which you’d expect with all big-money accords). Specifically, it’s in the form of an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. If Darvish pitches well enough over the next two years to vacate the deal in favor of another trip to the market, his departure would create a sizable hole for a Chicago team that hasn’t had great success at developing starters during the Epstein era, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required).
On the other hand, should he go downhill during the next two years and stick with his current contract, it could leave the Cubs with another expensive, declining veteran to join Lester (guaranteed $25MM after 2019, including a $10MM buyout for 2021) and outfielder Jason Heyward (guaranteed $86MM from 2020-23). The Cubs took the opt-out risk on Heyward when they signed him to an $184MM contract prior to 2016, when he was one of the sport’s foremost all-around players. Since then, his offensive game has gone in the tank, making it unlikely he’ll leave when he’s allowed to after next season or potentially at the end of the 2019 campaign.
To the Cubs’ credit, the $126MM guarantee looks quite reasonable for Darvish, and at $21MM per year, it’s palatable from a luxury tax standpoint. During a normal winter, Darvish may have ended up with a much wealthier contract. In fact, at the start of what has since turned into a bizarre offseason, MLBTR predicted a six-year, $160MM payday for Darvish, while former FanGraphs writer Dave Cameron forecast an even richer figure ($168MM) over the same term. All things considered, then, it seems the Cubs made out rather well with this move – one they hope will help guide them back to World Series glory in 2018. What are your thoughts?
(Poll link for App users)
Yuuuuuu!
Yu looking like a Number 3 starter who has also wilted in crucial moments. If that’s worth $125 million, we’ll add it to a list of poor decisions by Theo and Co.
He is, quite simply, an overrated baseball executive. He’s achieved greatness (in both leagues) and yet he’s made a great many poor decisions. Add this one to that list!!
Next year, Darvish will be the 13th highest paid pitcher in the ML. $21 million a year in a few years will be low for a middle of the rotation pitcher. This is actually a very fair deal, beneficial to both sides: the average yearly salary is low for a pitcher of Darvish’ caliber; six years is long for a guy his age.
Dodgers wanted him, but they have the Matt Kemp albatross. He was traded for Adrian Gonzalez who the Dodgers paid about $15 million last year to be a -2.1 WAR player. Pretty astute. Theo and Co. have won 3 WS since an LA team won one. If they are overrated, where does that leave the 2 LA organizations?
well Adrian Gonzalez was a regular in the dodgers lineup before injuries got the better of him last season
I think Yu is a great pitcher has a good amount left in the tank. The deal was still rather risky. —- B
They’re all risky
To an extent, I guess.
But nobody with a brain is going to complain about being out a couple million dollars if somebody on a small deal with low expectations flops, but everyone will complain if a $100+ mil contract turns into a bust. Those are the types of contracts that saddle a “normal” team when they go awry. I say “normal” because teams like the Cubs, Yankees, etc. can afford to keep spending heavily even if/when those contracts eventually turn into trash – a luxury that a lot of other teams don’t have.
That being said, I like the signing. It’s obviously a little too long of a deal, but the aav is solid. I thought he was clearly the best pitching option this offseason, and without the tiny World Series sample (yes, he was awful), I don’t think anybody would’ve questioned that.
When he said risky, he meant riskier than a typical signing.
Best rotation in MLB. Full seasons from Darvish and Quintana. Bounce back season from Lester. A really good Hendricks and arguably the best #5 starter in the league in Chatwood. That’s a scary rotation.
Graded it a B still though because that’s a scary opt out… best case is he pitches so well he opts out and that’s not a good best case lol.
Not sure if the Cubs have any starters in the minors that could be ready in two years. If so I think they would want Darvish to opt out.
Alzolay is probably the closest and has some upside. He could be ready to at least share a back end starting job if Darvish opts out
First off, it’s quite a risk to opt out as a 33 year old SP. Second, if he does, the contract obviously comes off the board and Theo can sign another SP. The north side has proven to be able to attract top free agents. Third, the Cubs remaining top prospects are pitchers which just happen to project to be ML ready in two years.
So, this opt out is not a big deal and pretty standard nowadays in contracts. The Cubs window is wide open, most of these positional players haven’t even peaked yet. They’re all locked up until at least 2022 and the Cubs have PLENTY of money to extend them beyond that. With one WS ring in the bank and 3 straight NLCS appearances, the arrow remains pointing up.
“Most of these position players Havnt even peaked yet?” Ok! Glad you can see the future! Let me guess , and all the other teams players have right? Typical ! Good Luck this year!
Well, wannabe Batman, you don’t have to read a crystal ball to know that Contreras, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Edwards, Hendricks, Quintana, Edwards and even Bryant are all under team control and very team friendly contracts til at least 22. All are under 27, except Quintana. Rizzo might be in his peak years or entering. That’s quite a core, many of them still projected to improve… or hit their “peak” still. I know it’s a tough pill to swallow for the haters, I get it. But this team is only getting started on their run. You might as well embrace for it, haha.
Disagree. The Cubs have no problem with the opt-out. Just like they didn’t with Heyward’s, which by the way, it is no coincidence comes during Harper and Machado’s trip to FA.
So knowing the FO, the risk for them is that he won’t exercise it.
On paper but reality is it won’t be very good Nationals and Astros are way better
Indians rotation is pretty good too. Kluber, Carasco, Bauer, Clevenger, Salazar/Tomlin. Even Tomlin at 5 can give teams headaches for parts of the season
Yu lost me after Kluber
that’s pretty good lol. carasco is pretty awesome though too.
CLE has gotten 17.3 fWAR from Carrasco after him being the centerpiece of the Cliff Lee deal, and have him tied up for 3 more seasons at a very reasonable price.
It probably took longer for him to develop than the Indians hoped it would, but so far that’s a pretty decent return for trading an ace, given some of the similar trades that have happened over the years.
Put the bong down please!!!
I think that’s a great contract. No risk
Signed,
Mike Hampton
not even remotely the same
Nationals are way better? They’re a year older and haven’t been good enough to make it to the NLCS, have they?
Isn’t everybody a year older?
Turning from 26 to 27 is usually a good omen in baseball. Turning from 31 to 32 is not.
They’ve been good enough to make it to the NLCS, it’s just that they haven’t. Baseball pretty much comes down to whose hot at the right time
Lester is 34 and Darvish is going to turn 32 this season… Pretty much on par with Scherzer and Gonzalez.
There’s really not much of an age difference looking at the starting rotations for both of these teams…
Everyone except Benjamin Button.
The difference is negligible indeed, Washington is actually a bit younger if Fedde or Ross make it back into the rotation.
1-8 on the SP depth chart the Cubs’ starters average age is now 29.25 after adding Darvish, while the Nats’ 1-7 average SP age is 28.77 (I only listed 7 guys for WAS because I don’t know their depth beyond Fedde / Ross.)
Average age for CHC’s 25 man rosters is 26.9 and 27.5 for WAS. So yes, the age difference is negligible. (by the way, SF are the oldest at 28.2 and PHI are the youngest at 25.6). Seems like teams have gotten signficantly younger recently!
So while the Nats are one of the older teams (8th oldest, versus the Cubs being 15th oldest), it’s pretty clear that comment about the Nats being “one year older” was almost completely irrelevant.
On another note, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gio and Strasburg regress somewhat while Quintana and Chatwood improve. Both rotations have their durability concerns. I can’t think of a better 1-2 punch than Scherzer and Strasburg, but I’d venture to say that Chicago has better depth (and that depth (and quality of depth).
The Nationals still have a huge hole to fill – just behind their rib cage and slightly to the left.
THIS! Haha, I’m not worried about a team that can’t even make it past the divisional series. Harper will walk next winter, perhaps even to the Cubs. Too many ifs in Washington. Bullpen, behind the plate, can their starters all finally stay healthy, etc…
Way better? Gio gone next year strasburg injury prone . Kershaw bad back rich hill is over the hill. Rhyu can’t stay healthy . 1-5 healthy cubs are scary
Yeah the Cubs are looking pretty good at the moment.
Indians rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Clevinger and Salazar/Tomlin are pretty close to the best as well.
Best rotation? You remember the Astros right? Verlander, Kuechel, Cole, Morton and McCullers ?
Too early to say who’s best. But cubs, Indians Astros are all up there. I give slight nod to cubs only because of some of the age and question marks with the Astros. And Indians only due to questions about Salazar finally putting it together
Question marks with the Astros? Like injuries? Outside Verlander and Cole, I expect the remaining 3 to take a trip to the DL at some point in 2018, but performance standpoint, I would take Astros, Indians and Nationals over cubs.
Haha, I love the selective reasoning on this board. So, Yu will be too old? Haha, Verlander is 3 years older, makes more money AND relies heavily on velocity, the first thing to go. While Yu has a crazy arsenal of offspeed pitches in his bag of tricks. Kuechel can’t stay healthy, Cole never lived up to the hype, blah blah blah. There is a reason why those that get paid for their opinion say what they do, they aren’t blinded by being a homer. I’ll take CLE’s rotation over Houston’s, probably WASH too, but like Houston, those staffs miss a lot of starts due to injury as well. I’m pretty happy w/ the Cubs rotation, all things considered. I mean, there’s no Mark Appel in their rotation, but I don’t think any ML rotation has that.
they have questions, as well. JV is not that far removed from a struggle,Cole has an ERA over 4 for two straight years, Morton came out of nowhete, can he keep it up ?
Lol this is definitely not the best rotation in the mlb.
let me guess, Houston is.
Lester is over the hill, Quintana & Darvish are overrated, Chatwood is a never was, that leaves Hendricks as the only decent SP. the Cubs built a lot of this team from within, now they’re trying to buy it. Big mistake. Certainly not the best staff in MLB, not the NL either. They Cubs are capable of scoring 6-7 runs per game…they’ll need to.
I just looked up lesters stats. He had a 4+ ERA in 2017, not sure what the advanced metrics say (cubs defense is good, so I assume FIP is close), but that would have been the Astros and Indians 5th start last year.
Did you see what Lester did in the two seasons prior, or did you conveniently filter those out?
Lester got rocked in two starts that were about an inning each. Like 10 runs kind of rocked… Take those away and it was a pretty good year. Look at his playoff numbers, they were pretty good too.
Bounce back 34 year old. Hope that works out for you.
until the rest of their staff goes down….of, Lester is not the one in Chi. ,by the wzy
bounce back from what? can you read ?
Last year
is over
Lester 2017 playoff era>kershaw
So, your description sounds like you think they suck.
The Cubs rotation was top 10 last year with Arrieta and Lackey. Darvish and Chatwood should both be improvements.
Best in baseball? No, but top 5 for sure, possibly top 3 if guys perform to their track records and Chatwood cont to be his away from Coors Field self.
If Chatwood pitches like he has the past 3 years away from Coors (~2.87 ERA) he’ll be a rockstar #3-5 starter.
Quintana was actually the most consistent MLB pitcher in the past 5 seasons. That makes him underrated. I believe this site did that article this offseason.
Verlander is over the hill. Cole and Morton are overrated. Dallas is a walking injury….i can do it, too
“arguably the best fifth starter in the league” in Chatwood. Come on now that’s stretching it a mile.
if he has 2.87 ERA, who would be beyter?
Better than Anderson we started season with last year
Thank you for giving me a good laugh. The Cubs rotation is at best above average. Houston blows them away.
cubs are top 3. Houston is top 20, at best.
Cubs set for many years . Astros only for 2 years
Top 3 sure but not the best. They have no depth at all. If lackey continues his decline and someone goes down they are going to struggle immensely. They have the offense to get by but Eddie butler and no prospects is not going to help. Cardinals have a weaker rotation but far supperior depth.
Smyly is projected to return from TJ by September. No one seems to have mentioned Tseng either. He pitched about as well as any starter between AA and AAA last year (peripherals weren’t great but it was his age 22 season).
Same with Alzolay at AA, who is making quick progress through the minors. They won’t be ready on opening day but maybe by July.
Eddie Butler and Alec Mills are crap options, I agree, but I think you’re forgetting that Montgomery is their 6th starter and he was a far superior starter to Francis Martes last year.
I’m not sure if you’re trolling, but Lackey isn’t even on the team.
lol…Lackey is not on the team ..and it’s about starters, not potential starters
Hahaha, he does have a point. Lackey is clearly on a rapid decline. But, that falls under the category of “Things that are NOT the Cubs problem”.
Not even close. Lester is declining. Darvish is good but his ERA will be in the mid 3 -4 range. If Quintana repeats what happened last season he is not that good. A lot has to go right for them to be the best
as with most teams
Think the Astros would argue that they’re pretty solid.
Chatwood has a career FIP north of 4.5, and 2 out of the last 3 years it has approached 5. I understand he has some attributes that people are interested in, but let’s not get crazy here just yet.
First off, don’t forget the Coors Field factor. Second, he’s a 5th starter. He’ll eat innings during the season allowing Joe to manage the big 4’s innings keeping them fresh for the post season while the Cubs coast to another division title. You rarely even use a 4th starter in the playoffs, never a 5th. If Chatwood can stay healthy and eat innings, that will be just fine for the Cubs.
I’m a Cubs fan, but ease off the kool-aid… at least on Chatwood. Chatwood has proven 2 things so far in his career. 1) he’d mediocre AT BEST. and 2) he can’t stay healthy…. ever. So to call him the “best #5 in the league” is a bit of a stretch. also, being called the “best #5 starter in the league” is like being called the “skinniest person at fat camp”….. you still suck, just not quite as much as the rest around you. I mean Chatwood has a career 4.31 ERA and a career 4.58 FIP to go with a pretty horrendous 6.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 rate. Moving to Wrigley isn’t going to make him strikeout more guys and walk fewer. He still needs to change his approach drastically if he’s going to pitch as well as Theo and Hoyer are hoping for when they look at his career ERA away from Coors Field…… which is what I think was the motivating factor behind signing him. They are REALLY hoping they found another diamond in the rough like Arrieta, and I think they are basing it solely off Chatwood’s away stats. Arrieta walked a ton of guys in Baltimore which is why he sucked. He reigned those in though in his first 3 years with the cubs, but they starter to creep back up in the past 2 seasons….. hence the dip in performance. Walks are killer. If Chatwood does pitch to his away stats he’s posted for his career, it’s a great move and what you said has some truth to it…… I’m just not sold. And at almost $13M for him….. to me it smells more like an Edwin Jackson type deal again than a deal for “the best 5th starter in the league.”
But my solution around this is to implement the hybrid 5th/6th starter. Every 5 days have Chatwood start the game but go only 3-4 innings. Then regardless of how he’s doing, put in Montgomery to pitch the next 3-4 innings. That will take you to the 8th inning at least most of the time…. pretty much guaranteeing an off day for most of the bullpen. Do this so that Chatwood and Montgomery only go through opposing lineups at most 1.5 times, also, it should keep an oft injured Chatwood healthy all year for once in his career (literally, it would be the first time). The other bonuses of doing this is if both guys do well in this tandem roll, each should pitch about 110-120 innings on the year, that means from your tandem 5th starting spot you’ll have it eat up about 220-240 innings for you, giving that pen a de facto rest day every 5 days. ALSO, with chapman being a righty and Montgomery being a lefty and our setup men and closers being righties, it will play hell on managers trying to play matchups, and it would be hell on opposing hitters, constantly changing the release point of every pitch almost every time they come up to the plate. 1st AB vs. a righty, 2nd AB vs a lefty, 3rd AB vs. a righty….. that would suck.
Theo disagrees
Chatwood is a groundball pitcher i thought and Cubs have good infield defense. Rockies not too shabby with the infield D either. I’m new to spin rate and what it does but Chatwood has a good on .on one of his pitches, I think I read. Not sure what to expect from him. Sometimes Theo has bad judgement. He had an offer in to Cobb and seemed willing to go to war with Chatwood Cobb earlier this winter, had Cobb accepted, there would be no Darvish. Then, what do I know, I’m a White Sox fan.
Best rotation in baseball? Uh…they’re up there, but it’s debatable if they’re the best. Astros, Nationals, Indians…
They do have a very good rotation, and within the top 5 in The NL, but not the best. The Astros easily pass them, and even The Nationals.
Yes, Stros are better….
No
You guys remember the movie Summer School?
Yes. Yes I do.
Absolutely!
LOL!! It is on local TV in Pittsburgh right now!!!
Nice try. MLBTR predicted 6/$160M. It’s a bold new world of journalism when you’re misquoting your own website.
Yeah, it’s not like the 5 and 6 key are near one another and somebody might have made a typo. Definitely some sort of journalistic conspiracy.
I never said it was a conspiracy. It’s merely incompetency? Got it? Or they could pony up for some sorely needed copy editors.
Get a life
You’re right, this is an outrage! We shouldn’t have to put up with typos on this free content.
I’m reading in a lot of places this was a great deal. Except in the comment section of this website, is it really that bad of a deal or are some just tilted because Yu didn’t sign with their team?
There’s been a lot of emotional disdain for the Northsiders in recent years. It’s all just part of the cyclical rise and fall for any team.
I think it’s a good deal. I voted an A. Cubs are now a top 5 rotation. Nationals/Astros/Indians are better. Not sure in which order.
Most of the naysayers are just butthurt Brewers and Cardinals fans. Lol. Any hope they had of winning the division was just crushed, and they know it.
Haha, exactly. I see the EXACT same usernames that were praying that Yu would sign with Milwaukee that are now saying “we never wanted him anyway”. It’s hilarious, at least change your username if you’re gonna try and pull that nonsense.
It’s a stellar deal. I am a Cubs fan but I’m not saying this just because he’s on “my” team. The dude was projected to get at least a deal identical to what Jon Lester got 3 years ago. This is significantly less. Despite this FACT people are still calling it an “overpay.” That’s because those people think pretty much any free agent signing is an “overpay” and they’ll parrot that same phrase on EVERY FA signing post. Guaranteed. Fact is, Darvish signed for what is perceived as his market value therefore making this, if anything, an UNDERpayment. $21M AAV puts him in the neighborhood of pitchers making $18-24M AAV on their current deals.
Those pitchers include:
Cole Hamels $24M AAV
Tanaka $22.1+M AAV
Jordan Zimmermann $22M AAV
Johnny Cueto $21+M AAV
Rick Porcello $20.625M AAV
Adam Wainwright $19.5M AAV
James Shields $18.75M AAV
Jeff Samardzija $18M AAV
Who on this list would you say is DEFINITELY better than Darvish…… I’ll wait. If you happen to name someone please provide your reasoning. Only person you can make a case for IMO is Hamels….. but he gets paid more so……. Fact is Darvish is pretty much better than all these guys in his tax bracket if you will, haha. In some cases he is INSANELY better than some of these pitchers. Like Wainwright who is complete garbage nowadays, Shields is a joke. Porcello is a joke. Zimmermann floundered into obscurity in Detroit. And Cueto has had injury issues over the last few years. When Cueto is on he’s on. When he’s not on though…. he’s a #4 quality starter. We saw that in his brief stint in KC and we say it last year. Of the pitchers on this list I’d say Cueto is probably the most equatable. Difference being, he signed his deal 2 years ago already. And it was actually worth MORE at 6 years and $130M. So yeah….. Darvish and his deal with the Cubs 2 years later and still being less than Cueto’s…… I’d call that a steal.
That said, of course Darvish brings some questions. What free agent doesn’t? In Darvish’s case though it is pretty much just his health. Many a pitcher have returned from Tommy John surgery and been just fine. Darvish in his first year back in 2016 was pitching great, but then he had a neck strain and missed some time. A neck strain. A random freak injury. Last year with Texas from day one people were talking about when and who will Texas trade Darvish to and for what. That’s got to wear on a player’s psyche, knowing you’re on borrowed time in a city you’re not going to finish the year with and not knowing where you WILL end the at. I mean to give you an idea of how Texas just strung Darvish along I believe on July 23rd Texas said they weren’t going to trade Darvish…… then a week later they trade him to the Dodgers. Dick move IMO. Once in LA though he relaxed and in 9 starts he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.38 WHIP. If he does that over a full season for the Cubs for the next, say, 4 years this deal was definitely worth it. I personally think he can and will do better than that as long as he stays healthy. But IMO for a deal to be “worth it” the player has to have more better seasons that bad ones. So on this 6 year deal as long as he has 4 seasons in which he pitches to his career numbers or better I’ll be thrilled. He can completely tank or be injured the entire time in those other 2 years and I’d still call it a win. And it’s not like this contract is going to “bury the Cubs.” 1) the Cubs and Ricketts are LOADED with cash right now….. and they haven’t even gotten to their new TV deal yet which could possibly be their own TV network if rumors are to be believed, much like the YES network for the Yankees. You’re talking about INSANE money if that happens. And then 2) over the next 3 years Zobrist and Lester will play out their contracts. Zobrist has been a $14M AAV player on his deal, and Lester has been a $25M AAV player. That’s $39M off the books right there in just two players. Jose Quintana in 3 years will also be a free agent in 3 years, over those next 3 years he’s about a $10M AAV player. Brandon Morrow will be off the books and his $10-$10.5M AAV. Cishek and his $6.5M AAV, Chatwood and his roughly $13M AAV as well will be off the books. In other words, people are acting like the Cubs are going to be buried under bad money for the next 5+ years. When fact of the matter is a ton of money is going to be coming off the books within the next 3 years. Right about when most of their talented and young position players are due to hit free agency. Also about the same time when they’ll get their new TV deal whatever that may look like. Point is, they’ll be able to retain the young players they want to retain, and still be able to go out and sign top tier FAs because by that time the only “bad” contracts as they’re being labeled already on the team will be Darvish and Heyward. And by that time Heyward’s AAV for the remainder of his deal will be “down” to about $24M from 2021 onward. Not the $28+M they’re spending on him last year and this year. The MAIN thing fans should “worry” or care about is how well they draft and acquire young talent over the course of the next 3 years to build the farm back up again. Likely not to the heights it was before this string of successful seasons, but at least build it up to respectability again like a fringe top 10 farm system or something. It would be nice if they find 2-3 future stud SPs over the next few years in the draft, because then the ML roster roles would essentially be reversed payroll-wise. Most of the payroll in 4 years would be taken up by the position players and their pitching staff would be the part of the team that is at bargain basement prices comprising of nothing but excellent, young, quality starting pitchers for the most part…. and Yu Darvish. But the Cubs track record at finding top tier SPs in the draft hasn’t been good for a while….. and in the Theo era it has been pretty pitiful. Dylan Cease was looking promising….. but they flipped him for 3 years of Quintana. That could possibly bite them in the a**…… much like Hendry trading Archer in a package to TB for Matt Garza bit them in the a**….. now all the talk is about how will the Cubs pry Archer from Tampa Bay when the MFer was a Cub to begin with….. to say that isn’t aggravating would be a lie. had they kept Archer they wouldn’t have Edwards in the bullpen….. I’d make that sacrifice. Their rotation then the last few years would’ve been Lester, Arrieta, Archer, Hendricks, and Hammel/Lackey…. my god, haha. DA** YOU HENDRY!!!!
A lot of your saga is ifs
and buts and what ifs . Try dealing with reality . Also brevity!
Great choice of words and way to keep it under one excruciatingly long never ending paragraph…
Good point fake Batman. Let’s stick to reality. 3 straight NLCS appearances, 1 WS ring already in the bank. A young group of stud, cost controlled young talent locked up til at least 2022 including Bryant, Contreras, Happ, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Edwards, Hendricks, Almora, and Quintana… and Rizzo. A proven manager, an even more proven front office and plenty of money to burn having still not yet hit the luxury tax (although Theo has already said that will change next winter, Bryce Harper perhaps) but back to the FACTS which look pretty damn good. Let’s add an improved pen, an improved rotation and another year of development for the youngsters. Hmmmmmm, you’re right! Sticking to the FACTS is fun!
You talk about money coming off the books (Morrow, Cisneros, Chatwood), which will not dent what they will be able to afford when Rizzo and Bryant need long-term extensions — not to mention what it will cost to sign a certain Nationals outfielder next year. And, as you know as a Cub fan, that is a given.
Cishek!!
okay I get what you’re saying but don’t make it so dramatized
as a brewers FAN the cubs with Yu Darvish if no injuries happen should have one of the top 3 rotations in baseball but I think Lester might have his age catch up to him and be on the decline in the upcoming season and I still think the brewers sign 1of Arrieta,Cobb or Lyne and the brewers get Nelson back from injury the brewers should have a very strong rotation and I think It’s going to be a dog fight for the division in the last month of the season
The Brewers will light Darvish up like a Christmas tree.
I think the first two years could be good, not great. After that they’ll regret this deal but that doesn’t matter if they win another WS.
Does that ring make Heyward’s deal any better?
Yes
Yes
Yes. Just ask Tom Ricketts $$$$
Yes
yes
Tj for Yu by mid-2019
Thanks for the update, Dr. Dale. Now get back to your heart patients.
c i’m no fortune teller
Trading Happ or Biaz would have netted a good, cheap, young starter.
Not without adding
Not as good as Darvish.
Obviously not, they tried.
name 1 they could have gotten for thst
Cubs are great, unless they face
the Astros!! They are Darvish’s
Daddy!!!
Ha, fair enough
Joe Maddon will screw it up somehow
Just like he did in 2016..
Just like 2016
Yea, a manager with 3 straight NLCS appearances, 1 pennant, and 1 World Series title (just with the Cubs) is a real f & $ k up. Lol. What was Theo thinking signing him???
I am concerned how Joe will manage come October without a closer he can treat like a rented mule…
But by then, maybe the Cubs will acquire one?
The Cubs have four guys on their staff with closing experience. They’ll be fine.
Geez! Now Maddon’s a screwup? You never were the sharpest piece of cutlery in the drawer, were you?
It’s an easy A. I don’t know about best rotation but it’s top 3.
In what way is this a poll?
it’s not. no games have been played. it’s mainly a prediction
Absolute waste of money. Will turn out to be one of the worst contracts ever. Actually laughable. He is a mediocre pitcher. When he’s healthy.
He’s not elite but he’s upper tier. Hardly mediocre. The problem has been his lack of durability
And his huge lack of being clutch…
What the hell is “clutch”? That’s a silly statement. He pitched well in the NLDS & NLCS. The WS is just a 2 game sample. Astros lit up Chris Sale too. Does that mean he’s not “clutch”? Damn silly
With that logic isn’t his work in the 2017 nlds and nlcs also a two game sample ? His post season track record hasn’t been pretty
The WS is just a two game sample? In that “sample,” he had a standard deviation of about 1000.
you dont get it. It’s too small of a size. Maddux got pounded early in his career in postseason. Lord, look at Kershaws ps stats.
The postseason isn’t the only clutch time.
your reaction to an obvious point shows how lacking comprehension skills ate
Just a 2 game sample? Well when the WS is JUST 7 games, 2 games are very important!
He pitched two games where opponents said he was clearly tipping off his pitches. In those two games, he allowed a total of 8 ERs in 3.1 IP. If you take away the games where he was clearly tipping his pitches off (which is different than “choking”), his playoff ERA is 3.52, which is right in line with his career ERA.
I really liked Yu at 5/125, I LOVE him at 6/126. The opt out doesn’t concern me. It would be a massive risk for Yu to opt out at age 33. What I like most about Yu is that IF his velocity starts to decline (Like Arrieta) he still has 4 other plus pitches, perhaps the most diverse arsenal of any pitcher in the game, so his curve, change, split and cutter will still be very effective.
The best part, Theo waited out the market and didn’t panic. Now, the Cubs will once again be under the luxury tax. So next winter they can blow past it (Harper perhaps?) with minimal penalties as they won’t be a repeat offender. Something Theo has made no secret that he plans to do.
The big market teams resetting the luxury tax after the 2018 season ends will make things extremely interesting in the 2018 off season to say the least. Cubs dodgers and Yankees will all have reset the tax and will have certain salaries come off the books (unless one or more of them are resigned) so that gives them even more flexibility.
Right, that’s why NY and LA couldn’t get seriously involved w/ Yu. Everyone is gearing up for next winter. The tax will be reset on both the Dodgers and Yanks, so I expect they will be very much in, along with the Cubs. I predict Kershaw to re sign in LA, Machado to the Yanks and Harper with the Cubs.
That outfield though..
Yes, of course, Theo “waited out the market.” He sure showed up all those other GMs who signed their big FAs early in the off season. Oh, wait, there’s still 100+ FAs, because Theo made the first big move? Guess those other GMs should do even better, based on your logic.
They should ALL do better, but the desperate teams will still overpay. Whether it’s November or March. Theo was in a unique position because the usual suspects, NY and LA, big market contenders were laying back trying to reset their luxury tax penalties. In a normal offseason, Yu would have made A LOT more. He made it clear he wanted to be in a big market on a contender, so Theo was never concerned about Milwaukee or Minny getting him. Usually contracts for top free agents escalate, look at what Cueto, Shields, Tanaka, Zimmerman, Shark all got. Are any of them better than Darvish? Again, I was hoping the Cubs could get him at 5/130, to get him at 6/126 is fantastic! Plus no draft pick, no slot money given up. This is why Yu held out for so long, Theo called his bluff and now the Cubs, once again, avoid the luxury tax which was Theo’s hope all along. He’s made no secret about his intention to stay below the threshold then blow past it in the 2018 winter with minimal penalties as a fist time offender. Not to mention, it widens the gap even further between the Cubs and Brewers. This is a great move on several levels.
the point is, he got him for less than expected..
It doesn’t matter how many different pitches YU can throw if they all are getting hammered!
I gave it a c but in reality I would have given it a b minus. I still think that darvish’s injuries are still going to linger while he’s a cub. I can’t tell when he’s going to hurt his elbow or arm again.
Cardinals have a good rotation too!! Martinez, Weaver, Wacha, Mikolas, Wainwright, and when they are ready Flaherty and Reyes
As a cardinals fan our rotation has so many question marks and red flags. If wainwright can’t stay healthy than he should go to the pen. I think bringing back Lynn, signing Arrieta/Cobb, or trading for a decent starting pitcher is the route to go. I can’t sit here with being out of postseason contention. And the last move we should make is signing holland.
It had to be done. The Cubs are in their prime right now and have the Brewers closing in possibly followed swiftly by Cincy. They have to do everything they can to win and Darvish fulfills that requirement.
Good deal for two years and if he opts out, it means he pitched very well.
Bryzzo2016 – Dilly! Dilly!
Haha, CHEERS!
On the one hand, they $21M/year is a huge discount on a pitcher who is worth considerably more.
On the other hand, that opt out..,I think people tend to underestimate how much that’s worth. And the value goes up, the earlier it comes.
Essentially, they signed Darvish to a two year, $42M deal, and then gave him a free insurance policy against injury and bad performance, that pays out $84M.
So, C. Without the opt out, it would be an A+. I think that, from Darvish’ perspective, this contract is just as good as the projected $160M he was gonna get (if he pitches poorly, he loses $32M, but if he pitches great, he’s gonna make more than an additional $32M, in his next contract, two years from now).
The opt out makes it an A+, so disagree. The Cubs don’t need long term pitching. My guess is the deal is so front loaded that Darvish is completely incentivized to opt out, just as the FO wants…
I hope you’re not in charge of the family budget.
Again, this opt out is being overplayed. It’s not a big deal. First off, it’s pretty risky for a 33 year old SP to opt out. Second, if he does, the contract obviously comes off the books. Theo could turn around and sign another SP. The Cubs have proven to be able to attract top free agents. Third, their top remaining prospects are all pitchers, except for another stud SS, and these pitchers are projected to be ML ready in 2 years or sooner. If just ONE of them pans out, that could be a replacement. Either way, this team is set with a wide open window until 2022 at least.
I agree with you.
Especially with the Cubs’ salary clocks and what not, it’s perfect timing for when the kids begin to get expensive and they can decide which ones to pay. If he pitches well, and they get out from under the $80m+ remaining, that’s $80m that can go into an extension for Bryant or Rizzo or even a second tier guy like Hendricks.
The Cubs actually do need long term starters! That’s what they need the most! That and a bullpen!
Agreed. And don’t forget the no trade clause
He’s at best a #2, which is what he’s being paid. Hopefully they back loaded the deal so they can save if he opts out. It’s fair, and it only took 4 months for Yu’s agent yo take a fair deal instead of waiting for some owner to he stupid. Someone is going to get Arrieta either for 4/80m or 1/25. And guys like Lynn and Cobb are going to get even less, like 3/45m.
if it’s back loaded he isn’t opting out
Darvish was 12th in strikeouts, 13thnin batting average against and whip. 26th In e.r.a. How is he not a #1 (ace)? 30 teams in baseball. If all pitchers were thrown back in he definitely is a 1 on several teams
Ok enough is enough. I’m tired of the trolls from all around the country hating on everything the cubs do. First off anyone who doesn’t believe this is a very favorable deal for the Cubs is just an idiot. At the beginning of the offseason Darvish was projected as high as 6/$168M Theo got a $46M discount, At $21M per he is the lowest paid ace who reached free agency. The dodgers offered at least the same money and Darvish chose the Cubs. That’s starting to become a common theme. Also he will not opt out if he does well cuz if any of you looked at the contract you would see that the contract has another $24M in incentives built in if he does well. STOP HATING ON GOOD BASEBALL DECISIONS and start worrying about all the crap your owners are feeding you. Thank God the Cubs have an owner who’s a fan himself, isn’t afraid to spend money to make money, and sincerely wants to win. And thank God we have the best baseball operations department in baseball history to make it happen.
I think it’s a great move. Team friendly deal. I thought Yu would get more. I also voted A. But let’s not pretend that the cubs rotation, with Chatwood and Lester, is even the best in the NL, let alone the MLB.
Likely depends on what you base it off of: having an ace? The top 2 or 3 in the rotation? Health? Ks? FIP? Overall quality of 1-5?
The cubs do not have what I’d consider an ACE, but rather four very solid 2-3s, though I believe Chatwood definitely has the stuff to be a 3, rather than a 5. IIRC, the Cubs has the healthiest starting rotation in all of baseball last year, and were still pretty good, even though they had to keep putting Lackey out there.
The other thing people forget about the Cubs is that their biggest pitching signing this off-season has actually been Jim Benedict.
Clearly the best rotation in the NL Central, and that’s all they need to worry about right now. I am curious, where do you think they stack up in the NL? Who in the NL has a better rotation than the Cubs? I’ll concede the Nationals have a pretty filthy top of the rotation, but 1-5..? The Mets, lots of injuries there, Harvey looks like a shell of his former self. Dodgers’ parade of lefties is good but gets thin pretty quickly after Kershaw, Wood and Hill…
See, I like the trolls. They bitterness and jealousy is quite transparent. Their tears make this sweeter. It’s CLEARLY a huge get for a great AAV. Theo didn’t panic, waited out the market and took advantage of teams like the Dodgers and Yanks desperately trying to reset their luxury tax in preparation for NEXT winter. Yu made it clear that he wanted a big market and be on a legit contender, so Theo knew that Milwaukee and Minnesota were never really gonna get him. The best part, the Cubs remain under the luxury tax and can blow past it NEXT winter with minimal penalties as they won’t be a repeat offender, which is EXACTLY what Theo has said was the plan all along.
The Cubs didn’t even have to give up a pick or international money to sign Yu. As I said earlier, I really liked him at 5/125 but I LOVE him at 6/126. There is a reason why those that actually get paid for their opinion love this move. Let the sad lil trolls stew in it, don’t let it get to you, I love reading their transparent comments.
I don’t dislike the move by any means. But let’s see how it feels 4 years from now when Yu talent falls off a cliff. Would have rather seen Arrieta on a 4 year deal (tho that won’t happen for anyone)
Nope, no one knows Arrieta better than Theo&Co. His decline in velocity, his decline with his command was very apparent. Otherwise the Cubs would have re signed him. Yu’s pitch arsenal plays really well moving forward because he doesn’t have to rely on velocity. His pitching arsenal is the most diverse in the game. It’s VERY telling that Theo opted for Yu over Jake. 21AAV is really, REALLY good for a SP like Darvish. In a normal market with teams like LA and NY not worried about resetting their luxury tax, his price would have been a LOT higher. At least closer to the 28 AAV he was projected to get.
With teams like LA or NYY in the bidding, his salary would have been 21 mm, because simply matching Chicago’s offer would have likely been enough. I love Chicago as a city but LA and NY offer unique opportunities.
Why would you think that? If NY and LA are in the mix you’d have a legit 3 team bidding war among 3 big market contenders with deep pockets. Of course his AAV would have greatly increased. You do realize that Cueto and Zimmerman both signed larger contracts than Yu just did. I mean, James F’n Shields signed a bigger contract and he’s terrible!
and what says Jake d pi want fall off 8in 4?
You should never love having more years.
You should know this as a Dodger fan. The years are not the issue, the AAV should be the focus for a big market team that will be flirting with the luxury tax. I liked him at 5/125 but I LOVE him at 6/126. This allows the Cubs to remain under the luxury tax, something the Dodgers are desperately trying to do so they can reset the penalty before they try to re sign Kershaw next winter. Besides, Yu doesn’t rely on velocity to be successful. His wide arsenal of breaking pitches plays well as he gets older, velocity is the first thing to go.
Well the cubs window is as wide open as the grand canyon. After a ring and 3 straight NLCS trips in a row. We aren’t exactly the loveable losers anymore.
I never did understand the “lovable” part. Maybe in Chicago but everywhere else, not so much. Just sayin.
In other parts of the country it was “laughable” losers. 😉
Boohoo success breeds envy. Welcome to being a cardinals fan (outside of recently). You will always be the target of criticism.
Exactly! I actually like the trolls. Their bitterness is very transparent.
i’ve never seen any, or many on here that actually say they hate anyone, anything or anything specific. differing opinions? yes. hate? no
It was a decent signing. But he’s not an ACE! Plus add in the opt out
and the price of the contract goes up!
The price may have been a bit steep, though no excessive, but in a suddenly competive division, HoyerStein did what they had to do to make the team better.
21 AAV for a starter like Darvish is not “steep”. Theo played this odd market perfectly. He was projected to get A LOT more. Theo took advantage of the other big market contenders laying back to reset their luxury tax. In a normal market, LA and NY would have driven the price up to 170 easy. The Cubs didn’t even have to give up a draft pick or slot money. It’s a great get, at 21AAV, it’s a steal which is why Yu held out til the middle of Feb.
None of the projections have been accurate. Relievers have gone for more. Everyone else for less. The money Theo saved on Darvish, he over spent on Chatwood by buying early.
Psh cubs rotation aint got nothing on the padres rotation.
Mark my words, padres rotation is better than any rotation in baseball……….to acquire the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. This is our year!
Haha! Love it! I will concede that if SD puts money into coaching/development in their minors like the Cubs did a few years back, they will be REALLY good by 2020. That farm is ridiculously stacked. Same with Atlanta and the White Sox. But, as I’ve said before, you need more than a subscription to Baseball Prospectus to develop a consistent winner. Prospects are just that, “prospects” until you prove you can develop them.
I lived through Gary Scott , he soip Choi , Felix pie , Corey Patterson , Brett Jackson. Nice to see cubs prospects finally hit.
Yep, me too! Remember Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith? They finished 1-2 in ROY voting and then they both fizzled out. It’s all about the front office, domestic and international scouting, player development… especially in the lower levels. In Theo we trust!
Don’t forget Bryan Lahair and Jason Dubois.
Atlanta is taking a very intriguing approach. Theyve stock piled so much pitching it seems as if theyll move pitching for proven bats.
Idk why they dont go out and try to acquire domingo santana from the brewers for some of their pitching theyve hoarded.
You don’t want Santana, fools gold! No one knows him better than Milwaukee yet they still paid a steep price to upgrade to Yelich and Cain. Atlanta has a stacked system. Stick to the plan, like the Cubs and Astros did, and don’t give up legit prospects for a corner OFer with some pop and a horrible K rate. Not worth it; those guys are a dime a dozen.
Or they realized by taking advantage of a slow FA market, it would allow them to shop the most valuable commodity in todays market- young controllable talent.
Unless they are Cubs prospects right ?
I know, Jed/Theo have been horrible with the draft and trades. Almora, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ, trading for Russell, Arrieta, Rizzo, Hendricks, Edwards, Quintana, and hanging on to and developing Baez, Contreras. It’s been brutal. Not to mention they are stuck with these guys on team friendly contracts thru at least 2022. That horrible, we know, you don’t have to rub it in. Theo is sooooo overrated. HAHAHAHA
3 guys with 4-4.50 ERA’s and Hendricks made 24 starts last season and Darvish had a nearly 4 ERA and he doesn’t consistently take the ball enough to be counted on. 2 guys making 20-25 starts at 3-4 ERA’s and 3 at 4-4.5’s should be middle of the pack. They can potentially be better than but I think there is a much higher likelihood that they regress than they all improve in performance and durability.
Hilarious! For comparison, the Astros rotation last year (minus Verlander): only one starter making more than 25 starts, and that starter had an ERA over 5…
The 25 starts came with a 3.62, and nobody else in the rotation made more than 23 starts.
So no other teams pitching staffs will regress? Kershaw back will be just fine. Strasburg and Noah syndergard will never feel pain in elbows again.
Good signing for the cubs, as a dodger fan I liked every bit of Darvish for that half a season. Thought they should sign him but I get the money thing, gonna be a fun season/October.
Be interesting too see what arrieta and Cobb/Lynn sign for. If there is a bidding war darvish signing will be even better . I gave it an A. Experts projected 160 million. When Jerry Jones signed Deion he said he did it so nobody else could have him and wouldn’t have to play against him . I like a game 3 at wrigley this year with Yu pitching for us and not against us.
This was a typical new school contract which is good for both sides. Darvish gets a good salary for 6 years with an opt out after 2 with incentives to make more money. The Cubbies get a top pitcher who is getting paid for what he will do, not for what he has done. The Cubs have built their team the right way with good position players, 2 young stars, and good starting pitching. Hoyer keeps plugging in the pitching to keep the team at the top.
The Cubs window to win is now.
Cubs hard to sign Harper when you have those albatrosses to pay…
Nope. This was Theo’s plan all along, he wasn’t even cryptic about it. Stay under the luxury tax until winter 2018, then go all in with minimal penalties as a first time tax offender. With or without moving Heyward, they can absolutely sign Harper. They have plenty of money. Keep in mind that Bryant, Happ, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Rizzo, Contreras, Hendricks, Quintana, Almora, Edwards are ALL under cost controlled, team friendly contracts til 2022. The window is wide open for years to come.
So you’re expecting Harper to be an “easy sign” for some team?
350 mil + isn’t an easy check for ANYONE to write. My point is that penalty for repeat tax offenders is steep. Again, that’s why the Yanks desperately wanted to unload Ellsbury so they could get in on Yu, same with the Dodgers and Kemp. They both want to reset their tax penalty before next winter. Theo also wanted to avoid hurting that threshold so he can go after Harper and be penalized as a first time offender, essentially a slap on the wrist. Again, he’s been public about this plan all along. Will the Cubs sign Harper? Who knows, he seems to like the Cubs, him and Bryant are best buds, they have the money, their competitive window is wide open til at least 2022, so they have a great shot. At least as good as any other big market team, we’ll see. I’m not in the prediction business, but if I was, I’d say Harper to the Cubs, Machado to the Yanks and Kershaw to re sign with the Dodgers.
Just because he’s friends with Bryant means absolutely nothing. Your boy crush can’t make specific moves known beforehand because it’s illegal. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees end up with two of those three and they make another earth shaking move to make it happen…
Wait, who do I supposedly have a “boy crush” on? Bryant? Those eyes tho..: Harper? You gotta admit, he’s got perfect hair…anyway. It means absolutely nothing that they are close friends? Really? Ok, let’s say you’re right. What about the fact that the Cubs can afford him? The Cubs have a young team packed with talent under team control til at least 2022? They are in a major market? They’ve had no problem signing the top free agents? Any of those factors matter? 3 straight NLCS and a WS ring already in the bank? Would that be appealing?
More trolls please! This is yummy, the sweet, sweet tears of bitterness and despair.
You talking about Theo being so open..I’ll change it to hero worship torward Theo then(clear now). Anyway since you brought up hypothetical things such as Bryant’s friendship with Harper here’s one for you. Harpers Dad is a huge Yankees fan..that gets the Yankees Harper just as much as the friendship angle gets the Cubs Harper…
Ok, so does Judge or Stanton play CF? Does Harper, Stanton or Judge DH? Not a great fit, I think the Yanks sign Machado, Dodgers re sign Kershaw and the Cubs sign Harper. But that’s just a guess.
Like I said in the previous post something to shakeup the world is coming..2 out of 3 ain’t bad
Like an Armageddon? Talk about hair brained, homer projections… you think the Yankees are gonna go buy Machado AND Harper in addition to absorbing Stanton’s insane money?!?!? HAHAHA… no wonder Yankees fans are so entertaining on these boards, I can’t begin to fathom why they are constantly being made fun of…hmmm
“Like an Armageddon” it will be like that throughout the sport. By the way I never said which two they would sign. Now go look at the way your homies(mostly Bandwagoners)only show up on days like this. You guys are looked on as fair weather fans because of them. You might not be one of them being laughed at but don’t feed the 1 ring out of 109 idiocy..track records bring the rain…
A- if you told any 1 team at the end of the 2017 season they would sign Yu Darvish for 21mil per season, they would’ve jumped all over it. Obviously paying a pitcher 21 for his age 36 and 37 seasons are risky. But if you just paid Lackey 17mil for the same aged seasons, you pay Darvish 4 more per season. If he opts out after 2 seasons, you got 2 very good seasons at ages 32,33 and are off the hook. It’s a very good deal for the Cubs. For now. We’ll have to see how it plays out.
Darvish was the top rated free agent and the Cubs got him for less than market value. Not sure how anyone would grade his contract less than an “A”. Especially if you consider their current roster (loaded with depth at every position). If the Cubs figure out a way to get rid of Heyward and add a big bat in RF, it might be game over for the NL.
That makes sense now. That last comment of yours wreaked of a sore cards fan
6 years at that price is risky. Thrilled Yu is off the board and the Brewers and Twins can move on to more responsible free agent contacts.
Hahaha, yeah 21AAV for the top arm on the market… so “risky”. Are you one of the dozens of Brewer fans that were on here pleading w/ Stearns to sign him? Now that he’s off the board, at a HUGE discount BTW, are you now suggesting that you’re happy the Brewers whiffed on him? Just like they whiffed on Quintana at the deadline? Hahaha, ok… we believe ya.
It’s under market value. It’s a great deal. Sure it’s risky in the respect that Darvish could get injured and never be on the field for most of the deal, but that is unlikely, or at the very least hardly a guarantee. Bottom line is he was signed for well under market value. I mean 2 years ago Cueto signed for 6 years and $130M… $4M MORE than what Darvish signed for…. and that was 2 years ago. Point is the Cubs got Darvish for the same amount of time he was projected to get but for about $30-40 million LESS than he was projected to get. Yet people will STILL call it an overpay…. somehow. It makes no sense. Just like they say Heyward was an overpay despite the fact the Cubs offer that offseason wasn’t even the highest bid…. or the second highest bid. Meaning that Heyward too is actually on a bargain deal. He TURNED DOWN more money to sign with the Cubs, I mean I don’t know how much more proof you need that these are good deals. But people will STILL lament over them as if they’re the ones writing them checks. Most of the people chirping “overpay…… overpay” will say that for EVERY free agent signing. It’s been going on for years now. They are of the mindset all athletes are overpaid so regardless the deal and the player they will say “overpay.” Also, most of the people saying that are fans of teams the player didn’t sign with – so put two and two together on that one. I mean look at not only the Yankee fan reaction but the Yankee front office reaction when Ohtani gave them the cold shoulder at the beginning of the offseason. “Oh he must not want to win” or “he’s too afraid to play in NY”….. and other meathead lines like that where the butthurt is just oozing from every syllable, haha. Another reason the “overpay” cries are stupid is because they are trying to base their logic on Darvish’s performance in a whole 2 games in the postseason….. while ignoring his other 2 starts in the postseason during the NLDS and NLCS in which he was brilliant. Those two starts don’t count, only the 2 bad ones. And let’s forget how excellent he was in his 9 regular season starts with the Dodgers too…. those don’t count either. Only the 2 World Series starts are what is needed to base his performance in the next 6 years on. Do you see how stupid that logic is? So the only reason this deal is “risky” is if Darvish winds up being injured ALL the time or if for some reason out of the blue he goes from being a 3.42/3.30 ERA/FIP pitcher for his career to date to being a 4+ ERA pitcher with a 4+FIP. Almost always pitchers moving from the AL to the NL see their numbers improve…. noticeably, so I’d say it’s fair to expect even better numbers than a 3.42 ERA and 3.30 FIP from him in a full NL season. Lester for example in the last 3 years has posted an ERA with the Cubs about 30 points lower than what he posted with Boston, and his FIP is about 15 points lower. If Darvish follows the same mold that means it’s fair to expect and not be surprised if he posts a 3.10-3.15 ERA with a 3.15 FIP in 2018. But again, his health is the only real worry. But he was just fine in 2017….. no one mentions that though. He made 31 starts and too my knowledge didn’t battle any injury or nagging pain during the season. So honestly, this deal isn’t that risky to me and I’d say it is less risky than a usual pitcher deal because of how CHEAP it is by comparison. It’s not like he’s making Greinke or Price money and look how those two have done on their deals. If Darcish pitches to the level those two have the deal looks good still. $21M for a guy pitching to an ERA in the high 3s….. that’s about market value nowadays. I mean look at Rick Porcello in Boston. The dude has been a BUM his whole career, rocking 4+ ERAs pretty much every season yet he signs a deal with Boston paying him an AAV north of $20M. So yeah…. it will take a LOT for Yu Darvish to suck or not play for me to say this deal was an overpay just by judging the rest of the league and what they pay their players. In 2018 Darvish will be 1 full season of play removed from his TJ surgery. I think it is just as likely he has a season that is Cy Young worthy as it is him getting an injury and only getting 15-20 starts on the year.
What will be CRAZY but highly unlikely is if the Cubs go out and sign Arrieta to a 1 year $20M deal. Could you imagine, haha. Darvish, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks…… mmm mmm MMM. I’d say there is a 1% chance of that happening though….. and that might be too high. I’d rather see them go out and scoop up Holland to a 2-3 year deal for about $12M AAV. Do that an it would cap off a stellar offseason pretty much addressing every need with the best players available and at cheaper than expected prices. Cubs needed an SP or 2 to replace Arrieta and Lackey….. they get Darvish and Chatwood. They needed to bolster their bullpen….. they get Morrow and Cishek and re-signed Duensing. Adding Holland will just solidify that pen that much more and packing it even fuller of closer and setup man quality relievers. BUT….. I have a feeling they might hold off on that and are done signing players, and are going to wait until next year when Kimbrel is a free agent. For some reason people are acting like the Cubs will be in the Harper sweepstakes…. as if they need even more offensive firepower. Odds are they will be bigger players in the pitching market which could possibly see Kershaw become a free agent, but others like Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel will definitely be free agents. The could just completely focus on building the best bullpen ever next offseason since Kimbrel, Miller, Britton, Robertson, Familia, and Cody Allen are all free agents next year. My god, next year’s free agent class in relievers alone puts this entire 2017-18 class to shame, haha.
KB actually at least made this 2 paragraphs this time. He is learning. Still an eyesore. I will wait for the cliff notes
When you add in the opt outs, the contracts are more expensive! What don’t you get about this ?
Now he’s gonna go on another uninformed 1000 word tangent again…
It’s only more expensive IF Theo attempts to re sign him IF he opts out at age 33 which, again, is risky. AGAIN, if the Cubs move then they got Darvish at 2/42 which any team would take all day long. Theo can then sign another stud FA starter or use one of his pitching prospects that are projected to be ML ready by then. He’ll have 6-7 to choose from, just one needs to pan out. Again, a win/win. For Darvish to opt out means he would have been REALLY good for the first 2 years. Again, this is why the opt out doesn’t bother me, not even sort of. It seems like the new trend, all the big contracts nowadays seem to have them, doesn’t mean they get exercised.
Gosh you took up all that space and managed to say so little. An “overpay” is not simply determined by what OTHER clubs are offering. It’s also in part determined by what one believes the performance during the course of the contract will be (here your Cueto example is poignant because of the bust he’s been thus far, with still many years left, plus the ongoing financial obligation to him), and also how the deal impacts future payroll flexibility and options moving forward. In both of these regards the deal is shaping up to be a failure.
Wow, Dimitri. You actually read that manifesto?
Cubbies Nation Rejoice! At the end of the day our chances of winning another championship went up and everyone else’s odds went down.
Dilly F’n DILLY!
opt outs are stupid. like long term contracts, I ask “why do teams continue to include them”?
It’s the trend now, seems like every contract has them. I’m not even sort of worried about it. It’s risky for a 33 year old SP to opt out. But even if he does, the contract obviously comes off the books and Theo can turn around and sign another stud starter. The Cubs have proven to be a desirable destination for the top free agents. Lastly, the Cubs remaining top prospects are all pitchers projected to be ML ready in…. yep, two years. So if just ONE pans out, that could be a replacement if need be. So, I don’t really care about the opt out possibility.
Teams do it for guys like Darvish with the hopes that they do opt out and they can do exactly like Bryzzo2016said above and get a new younger FA to replace while not having to eat money in the process.
Exactly! Let him opt out! The contract is NOT front loaded. I’ll take Yu at 2/42 ALL DAY. Then Theo can turn around and use that money to sign another stud starter or use one of his prospects to take over. Either way, I’m happy.
I grade this deal an “F”. If I could grade it lower, I would. Darvish should have held out for much more so the bar was set much higher for my guys. This cost me money!!!! Ruins my whole off-season.
Sincerely, Scott Boras
Hahaha, that I would agree with. Other than Boras, everyone else voting it as an “F” comprises of bitter Brewers and Cards fans and/or delusional Yanks and Dodgers fans that thought they could actually move Kemp’s or Ellsbury’s contracts.
A lot of money for a #2 that will probably be a #4 in 2-3 years. Better capitalize in next two seasons.
as opposed to make or Cobb or Lynn who have questions. too?. It’s all about average salary
The money was fair. If only 4 or 5 years, I would have given an A. Six drops it to B.
After what I witnessed in the World Series I wouldn’t have paid Darvish a plug nickel to pitch for my team if I were the GM.
I get it left if I followed a team like yours you didn’t have the best player development system in baseball, the best training system, in baseball, and the best coaching system in baseball I would be worried about those things too. Fortunately all is good in Cubdom.
you would have said the same thing about Maddux and Hale, too, right? what about Kershaw? his ps ERA is 4.35 and 4.75 in the LCs
This is a perfectly rational deal, given the market. The Cubs would love to pay those incentives out. Will he be worth the money at the back end? Probably not, but this was this is the price you pay for a high-level starter. It’s less than 2/3 the price of Grienke. The Cubs are competitive now and they needed him.
Look guys, I’m a former college pitcher, current high school pitching coach and private pitching coach. If you understand a thing about the craft you would’ve noticed Darvish threw very few quality pitches in his first WS outing and zero in his second. That’s right, not a single quality pitch. There wasn’t any movement on his fastball and no bite on his secondary pitches. His curve glided into the strike zone like a frisbee and he was wild IN THE ZONE. Always a big problem. Why such regression from his quality playoff outings? Could be he simply had a problem dealing with the pressure or could be he just didn’t have it those days. What I saw, however, was that he was fighting through some sort of injury to his elbow or shoulder and was too prideful to say anything. Likely because he was brought to the Dodgers precisely for those two games. He wasn’t getting on top of the ball and his release point was lower than normal. Could be if he was, in fact, dealing with an injury it was a mild one and he’ll be just fine. As to the rumor he was simply tipping pitches; that certainly could be the case but it doesn’t excuse the fact they were hitting prime, center cut offerings. I was stirring the pot a bit about not paying a plug nickel for him. Of course Darvish has worth and if my assessment that he was dealing with a twinge is correct he’ll be just fine by spring. Knowing he either couldn’t man up to the pressure of pitching in money games or may possibly have a physical issue, however, there’s no way in hell Id’ve given him a long term deal for over $100 million. Extremely short sighted and an aberrant conduct for the Cubs management. Darvish may pitch ok this year, but he’ll be leaking oil and running on one headlight LONG before his contract expires.
I’m tired of all the Cubs fans are talking about how great their rotation is now. Your ace and your# 3 had 4 plus eras last year. Chatwood given he pitched in Colorado still had a 4.77 era last year. What exactly makes this a great rotation
I definitely think the Cubs have arguably the best rotation in baseball, but I’d also like to hear opposing viewpoints FOR your choices.
My points FOR the Cubs are that they have four very good starters including a fifth starter with a high ceiling. Hendricks has been one of the best starters in the NL since he’s come up. His stuff doesn’t “wow” people, but his results can’t be argued (other than Maddon’s short leash with him). Quintana did have a rough start last year, but along with Lester, he has a top ten in WAR among starting pitchers over the last 4-5 seasons (admittedly too lazy to look things up right now, but pretty sure here). In regards to Yu, he’s easily a top twenty starter in baseball, maybe top fifteen.
The arguments I see against these guys: “Hendricks doesn’t go deep enough into games”. I don’t know why Maddon has a short leash with him but his pitch totals indicate he can easily go deeper. “Quintana had a down season”. Quintana had a rough start playing for a bad team but then picked things up with the Cubs. His production over the last several seasons show that he’s been one of the most productive starters in baseball. “Lester is getting old”. Yes, Lester had a high ERA last year, but He was a top five Cy Young finished the year before and you don’t just drop off the face of the planet that quickly. “Yu Darvish is always hurt.” I think his injury history is overblown. His TJ surgery was the lone huge loss of time for him, costing him the last third of 2014, all of 2015 and the first half or so of 2016. In his three seasons not effected by TJ, he averaged 31 starts and 195 IP. “Chatwood’s not proven”. Chatwood has pitched in SP hell in Coors. His ERA the last two years on the road combine for an ERA well under 3.00.
I’ve seen the Indians, Nationals, Astros and Dodgers mentioned as having better rotations. Please explain why.
I’ll admit I’m a Yankees fan. However they have Severino and Gray 1 2 which I view as better than Lester and Darvish. There 5 Montgomery had a 3.86 era last year. Four of the 5 starters were well under 4 era in the AL with Tanaka being great second half of year yet I would never argue is the best in baseball. I just don’t see what kool aid Cub fans are drinking.
Montgomery is not the Cubs 5th, he’s a 6th or a swing guy. No one, not even Cashman himself, not even the most blind Yankees homers would take their rotation over the Cubs rotation. Not even sort of, but thanks for playing.
He’s talking about the Yankees Montgomery our rookie who debut last season, not the cubs Monty lol. Thanks for playing 🙂
We’ll see when those balls are being scorched past that Cubs outfield defense. Aren’t you also one of the Cub BW that defends Schwarber so adamantly?
No, I do not defend Schwarber. I actually wanted him traded for cost controlled starter after the WS when his value was super high. That being said, the bat is legit, the power is VERY legit. He’s still a kid, not even two full ML seasons under his belt. He’ll be fine, but he clearly has more value in the AL. Re: OF defense. You trolls really need to research a lil, at least so you can pretend to be clever. Almora is a plus CF defender. Heyward is one of the top, if not THE top RF defensively in the game. Happ, Zobrist, Contreras (in a pinch) Bryant (in a pinch) are all serviceable in LF. Schwarber very clearly is below average out there. They’ll pick up another OFer for depth to replace Jay. Their defense was record setting good in 2016. Most of their core from then are still intact minus Fowler who was actually BELOW average in CF according to the metrics. I love how the trolls keep trying to find holes on this team, it’s adorable, but defense isn’t one of them. To help you trolls out, I’d point to the hole at lead off BUT, the Cubs still had the second best offense in the league last year WITHOUT a bonafide lead off hitter. Maybe Morrow will struggle as a closer… but then you’ll need Edwards, Strop, Wilson, Cishek, Duensing and Montgomery to also struggle and not be able to pick up the slack. I know, maybe the ivy will bloom later than usual and the team will get depressed… haha. MORE TROLLS PLEASE! Yummy yum yum.
Wow! There’s talking trash and there’s making yourself look bad, you are a prime example of the latter if you think the Cubs rotation is so flawed this season.
Instead of talking trash, why don’t you lay out your case against each of the Cubs starters? This should be interesting…
Well, Lester isn’t our second best pitcher. He’s arguably our fourth best. I would probably call Severino and Hendricks a wash. Hendricks may not have Severino’s ceiling, but Severino doesn’t have Hendricks’ track record. I’m not sure why you think Gray is better than Darvish. Darvish has better career numbers pitching in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball while Gray pitches most of his career in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Tanaka took a major step backward last year and doesn’t compare favorably to any of the Cubs top four IMO. Quintana has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball over the last five years, don’t know who the Yankees have who would be comparable.
I think the “kool aid” comment is off base and that the Cubs certainly have a better rotation than the Yankees.
Not Chicago’s 5 Jordan Yankees 5
Gotcha, I still like Chicago’s rotation over the Yanks by quite a large margin. There’s a reason Cash tried to move Ellsbury so he could jump in on Yu.
More than anything he is trying to move albatrossbury because well … he’s almost useless and he is dead salary lol. Not to say he wouldn’t have jumped on darvish but I don’t think e was as interested as the media made it out to be. Plus it would free up more room for the epic 2018 off season for potential signings
The Yanks were never serious about Darvish…
They didn’t even make him an offer. It was all a ploy by his agent
Love all 25 of the Brewers fans voting F. The reality is that Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, Gallardo is the real F. Enjoy that rotation and don’t start on Nelson returning or Woodruff being legit either.
If Brew crew fans were honest with themselves that Cain money should have went to a pitcher. Their rotation isn’t in good shape and is beyond questionable
Yep and they already had PLENTY of OFers. That rotation is ugly. It was subpar in the division even before the Cubs signed Yu. That’s why I pick the Cards to finish ahead of Milwaukee.
They can’t get rid of Santana because his defense is lousy and he’s a terrible guy in the clubhouse. And Nelson isn’t coming back at anything close to where he was. Relying on a journeyman in Anderson to replicate a career year and a below average starter in Davies is foolish. The reality is they overachieved significantly in the first half and the second half freefall is much closer to where they really are.
I agree Darvish might be better than Gray but last year’s Lester vs last year’s Severino not in same stratosphere you had 3 guys with well over 4 eras Saying I think Lester had a great WAR 3 years ago not convincing. Same for QuintanaAs Bill Parcels once said you are what you’re record says you are
Career home era 3.65
Road era 3.21
Guess whose splits are these ? You guessed it it’s sonny gray. The whole mantera that he was aided by the Oakland coliseum is s flat out lie. He’s a good pitcher period. Besides for strikeouts darvish hasn’t been that much better than gray over their careers
Just because he had a better road ERA doesn’t mean that his home ERA wasn’t aided by pitching in what’s usually a very friendly pitcher’s park. All that your numbers say is that his home ERA would have been even higher had he pitched in a different ballpark. The Ballpark at Arlington is annually a much more hitter friendly ballpark than the Coliseum is.
I get that but seeing has he has a lower career road era than home as I showed above that means people can’t say he is only an Oakland pitcher and he has a good sample size too
If you’re replying to me, I compared Hendricks to severino, not Lester. I compared Lester to Tanaka. Lester is one year removed from a top 5 Cy Young finish. I am not saying that he’s going to pitch like that again next season, but it’s more than likely that his numbers will fall somewhere between 2016 and a disappointing 2017. I’m sorry if you don’t believe in Quintana, but his numbers prove that he is a solid starter. In regards to your Parcells comment, if you’re judging a pitcher on his record, then that’s ridiculous since so many other things factor into a pitcher’s record that are outside of his control.
I agree am just making point whose currently better him or Darvish it’s debatableJust tired of Cubs fans throwing around names like Quintana and Lester should impress me because of what they did 3 years ago not what they’re likely to do this year
As to the comment about Tanaka August on he was one of better pitchers in baseball and in playoffs he gave up goose eggs over 2 rounds of playoffs I won’t even respond to your Severino comment. You could easily make comment Severino better than Sale last year. While probably not true would not be totally ridiculous. Nobody would say the same about Kendrick. The Yankees had 4 guys with eras 3.86 or less last year the Cubs had 1 and now Darvish. Cub fans need to temper their excitement because as I said would never say Yanks have best rotation in baseball. Cubs fans seem convinced saying there the best makes it so
Talking about lowering expectations, Severino has one full season under his belt and you’re trying to compare him to Chris Sale? Hendricks has a sub 3.00 ERA in 100 career starts and you’re offended that I would even mention him in the same sentence as Severino, who just had an awesome year with an ERA 0.01 points lower than Hendricks’ career mark.
Quintana is 29 and has had ONE season with an ERA slightly over 4.00 and you’re blowing him off.
Lester is ONE year removed from almost winning the Cy Young but apparently he’s washed up.
Darvish is a top fifteen starter in baseball, yet he’s no big deal.
I’m sorry if you’re not buying what we are selling, but the same goes for what you’re trying to say about our guys.
Okay you’re right Count on Lester and Quintana having 3.50 eras next year and Tyler Chat wood dropping his era down from 4.78 I’ll count on my guys who actually did it in the AL last year. Btw Cub fans all over the page said Tanaka’s washed up based on 3 months even though Cleveland and Houston couldn’t even get their bats on his pitches when it mattered which was pretty true of most of my”marginal” staff. Don’t believe you can say the say the same thing about your staff last year’s postseason
And, you guys are equally saying Lester is washed up because he had a bad regular season when he posted a 1.88 ERA in the postseason. Same situation, so yes, the Cubs CAN say the same about their staff last postseason.
Tanaka had .6 whip last year and gave up 2 runs in 20 innings in playoffs Asto what Cash man would s aayhe’d say I have 4 pitchers 26 or under with eras in mid to low 3s all under 26 with studs in the minors
I don’t think Theo can say the same
Except he doesn’t. Cashman has two players 26 or under in his rotation, and only one of them had below a mid-to-low 3 ERA.
I gave it a D as the contract is too long and very risky when Yu is on he is a number 1 type of pitcher however seeing him pitch a lot with the rangers he is kind of 50/50 which 21 mil for six years is a lot to gamble on. Good luck Cubs at the least he might be able to give you a couple of strong years if the cubs are lucky. I have seen both the good Darvish and the bad and my opinion is the cubs over paid for Darvish.
In the short term, The deal will be good for the Cubs, and if they can win another WS then it will be worth it. But pitchers do decline as they age, only the great ones continue to be excellent. And the odds are that Darvish is good, but not great. If the Cubs manage their payroll well, the $$ Darvish will be getting will not hamper them.
Enough hating already. New power rankings came out today, without Darvish Cubs 3rd in NL behind dodgers and nationals. With Darvish back to where we belong #1 in NL. Get used to I️t guys, that’s what good management does, I️t gives their team the best opportunity to win!