The Phillies are “having dialogue” with Jake Arrieta and his representatives, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). While there’s currently a “gap” between the sides’ bargaining positions, it seems there’s at least some real interest being explored.
Philadelphia has long been cited as a possible landing spot for Arrieta, but this is the firmest indication yet that they organization is really looking into the move. Of course, multiple recent reports have emphasized that the Phils don’t want to lock into a long-term deal to improve their rotation, and that motivation no doubt remains a major factor.
From Arrieta’s perspective, he’s now the top player left on the board (that is, MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list). Other Scott Boras clients are taking deals that feature front-loaded structures and opt-out opportunities, though that general approach may not quite meet with the Phillies’ interest. Perhaps there’s still some room for creativity in structuring a deal for Arrieta.
The obvious comp on this year’s market remains Yu Darvish, who landed $125MM from the Cubs — who reportedly at least checked in with Arrieta’s camp before finalizing things with Darvish. Other organizations no doubt share the Phillies’ interest in opportunism on the quality veteran starter — including, perhaps, the division-rival Nationals — so it’s still amply possible that interest from multiple quarters will push Arrieta into the nine-figure range.
Alex Graboyes
As a phillies fan i say sign him asap. He is not only good for the teams but also the prospects. Also i think they should at least look at alex cobb. Good 2 or 3 guy potential
RunDMC
As a Braves fan i say sign him asap, Phillies!!!
Dark_Knight
Even if he regresses to a 5 starter they still have Nola with Sixto, Medina, Kilome, Romero, Suarez, etc coming up. They can’t all bust. Plenty of youth to offset a bad contract.
RunDMC
Ryan Howard didn’t make enough of an impression on ya? Whew boy.
samthebravesfan
A handful of people are acting like the Braves pitchers will mostly bust.because they want to declare the rebuild a failure. The Phillies don’t seem to get this flack.
dj227
Probably because the few pitchers to come out of the rebuild have so far been busts. Folty has shown flashes if dominance, but Blair and Wisler look to be lost causes. Time will tell with Newcomb, Gohara, Allard and Soroka.
Dark_Knight
Ryan Howard wasn’t the problem. Having an awful farm system was the problem. If they had young talent to surround him they could’ve survived.
Dark_Knight
The Phillies guys for the most part aren’t as highly regarded other than Sixto and Medina nationally.
RunDMC
Did you ever think they might have drafted/developed differently had they not had a previous MVP with a massive contract at 1B?
RunDMC
The first draft pick under Coppy (thus, the rebuild) was Allard. I wouldn’t have the same regard for Wisler, Blair, Folty, and even Newcomb as the rest — most of the rest (Gohara notwithstanding) were drafted and developed by ATL.
If we get anything from the first wave of prospects — it’s icing on the cake.
southbeachbully
I agree. It’s ONLY a bad decision if they agree to an absurd contract. It doesn’t matter if he won’t be there once they are ready to contend. They’ve been rebuilding for a while now and are looking to move towards competitiveness. With the staff they had, Arietta is worth it on a 3-4 year deal even if it’s just to try and change the culture and give the fans something to look forward to. I think Arietta would either agree to a short-term deal 1 and an option or a 3-4 year deal with an opt out in 1 or 2 years.
philliesfan215
Thank you. This is the point I’ve been trying to get at. By the time he’d be into year 3 we don’t want him to be the ace. We want that to be Nola or Sixto. If neither of them has made the leap this potential signing is the least of our worries.
Cubbie Steve
If Arrieta would agree to such a deal, 1) he’d be a cub again already, 2) he wouldn’t still be a FA 3 weeks into February…
Coast1
Except he’s not a Cub and the Cubs don’t have money to sign him after signing Darvish. Boras is now taking the best deal for clients. If the Phillies will likely offer more money than anyone else over the first three years because other teams don’t have $25-$30 million left in their budget. What will he do if no one is offering 6 years $126 million to him? Sit out the season? I doubt that’ll get him more money.
Dark_Knight
Honestly for the Cubs it was smarter to sign Darvish and let Arrieta walk. They’ll get an extra pick and more bonus money and they need to start rebuilding the farm system IMO. Not that it’s an urgency.
Dark_Knight
@rundmc, no, they drafted Singleton and Hoskins while Howard was under contract. They just really missed. Larry Greene JR, Jesse Biddle, Anthony Hewitt, etc.
Even now they’re still not doing great with first rounders. Randolph and Moniak don’t look great right now.
jleve618
He helped get the phils as many titles as the braves got in the 90’s…
philliesfan215
I want nothing to do with Cobb unless it’s a pillow contract type deal. He can’t stay healthy and wants way more money then he is worth. He wants to be paid like a 1 or 2 when he’s a 3.
Djones246890
As a Cubs fan, I say…..this will be one of the worst signings in the last 15-20 years. I’ve watched him pitch, and believe me, you’re not gonna get the same Jake Arrietta that helped us win a championship. This guy’s metrics have (severely) trended downward, and he has trouble finding the strike zone. He’ll eventually be the bullpen’s water boy.
cubsfan76
This, 100%.
morgannyy 2
James Shields II
Solaris601
Good comp. Arrieta is a prime candidate to sign that big contract before stepping off a cliff into a free fall.
Cat Mando
Solaris601…..”Both general manager Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail (via Matt Breen of Philly.com) have indicated this week that the Phillies aren’t going to splurge on a long-term starter, in large part because they aren’t quite ready to push for a playoff spot, Zolecki notes. The team would be willing to pay more on a shorter contract, Zolecki relays, and Klentak revealed that doing so “is something we talk about frequently.” mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/nl-east-notes-phillies-…
So what big contract are you talking about….there is a reason the article says “there’s currently a “gap” between the sides’ bargaining positions”. He wants long term…the Phillies will pay shorter with a higher AAV…they have the funds and it won’t hamper them just like Santana won’t.
cubbies95
Cole Hames 2.0, once an ace and now…well IDK what Hamels is now in a rotation but Arrieta will likely end up in the same scenario
baines03
No, shields is a bad comp. Shields threw over 200 inning nine times in his career. His body just broke down. Arrieta is a flash in the pan. One outstanding year of sick stuff… then decline.
philliesfan215
You’re being very short sighted. We don’t need him to be the ace in 2 years. Our ace is going to be either Nola or Sixto Sanchez. We only need Jake to be a 3 at that point.
As long as the contract wouldn’t be a long term deal there is almost ZERO downside to the Phillies signing him.
padam
Then why bother paying him the ace money he’s looking for?
brown trout fisherman
Your just saying that to compensate
themilkman
It’s a dumb move for the Phillies. He is declining. By the time they can contend, he will be an overpaid innings eater. Don’t do it!
czontixhldr
NO NO NO NO NO
DANGER MATT KLENTAK.
DANGER.
irish0625
I would be hesitant to sign him.. He’s won’t be a Phillies club house leader which a signing at this point would automatically make him one. He was a super loaner with the Cubs and never really fit into the culture the Cubs wanted to have.
philsphan1979
About time! Go get em’ Klentek! Give us some ray of hope this season..just don’t go over 3 years!
brewcrew08
I’m confused how this makes any sense for the Phillies. They are realistically 2-3 years away from legit contention and at that point Arrieta will be a 33-34 year old making 20M per
baseballpun
I think they’ll be in wild card contention in 2019.
brewcrew08
That’s putting a lot of stock into talented but very unproven arms and bats
Brixton
So the alternative is to not try after 5 straight years of 89+ losses
southi
It is feasible that with the right additions and the hoped for development of a few youngsters that yes, it is possible that the Phillies could compete for a wild card in 2019. I’m not sure how likely all of that is though.
brewcrew08
I agree. If everything breaks right maybe they contend in 2019 but I still think 2020 or 2021 is more realistic. Their rotation needs a lot of work with Nola as an ace or Velasquez still in the rotation it needs help. If the young bats develop they could have a solid offense though
mattg3
Arrietta this year, Harper next year. They contend in 2019.
brewcrew08
Why not throw in Donaldson at 3rd, Machado and SS and Kershaw too?
davieboy742
Thanks, he needed to hear that!
T_Rexx2
Well I think that no matter what they are gonna be in on all of the big names next winter, even though Harper isn’t the best fit since they have 4 quality OF… of course Harper is an upgrade to all of them. But I don’t think it’s at all hard to envision them signing Arrieta and one of Harper/Machado.
ray_derek
They’re certainly going to be in the Machado/Harper mix whether they sign arrieta or not.
Long Duc Dong
Yes
Long Duc Dong
Don’t Forget Ryan Howard I heard he’s available to
slowcurve
Do they have enough space in the books for Arrieta, Santana, and Harper though?
slowcurve
Lol. They’d have better results going with Ryan Howard from the office than the former Philly.
Cat Mando
Projected 2018 CB Tax Payroll $84,794,600
Space under $197 million tax threshold $112,205,400
Only Oakland is lower docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRghSG2xRO…
samthebravesfan
Why not? Braves are doing that very well. 😉
Regi Green
And don’t forget about Jim Thome….
Everybody keeps bringing up Ryan Howard. Why not bring up the contract Chase Utley signed also. Don’t bring up the bad deal, and ignore the good ones.
tac3
The Phillies are going to ruin a lot of fans days … that is for the other teams. They’ve been bad lately, in terms of record, but where they have excelled is developing the farm system and keeping a low payroll. The Phillies are like the Marlins in terms of payroll… lol
Except they WILL spend, when the time is right… O …. and minus the firesale. This is calm before the storm, for those not paying attention to the Phils. They have positional players and pitchers coming down the pike, if not already on the teams. The signing of Santana was to show Harper,Machado, Donaldson, etc … that they are a viable team. The phils offense is going to see significant improvement this year, and one of the top names will complete the offense. Sure as brewers fan says they are not proven … aaaa yeah you want to bet against it? Pretty sure Hoskins and Kingery are for real. Hoskins has unbelievable pitch recognition, when he is whoopin the crew, you can fantasy about what kind of junk prospects you would trade for him.
If ya don’t believe … just watch, it’s happening right before your eyes. The Phillies will be in on all the top names, productive players, it is just a matter of whether they sign with them. Having the means is no issue at all. So orioles, nationals, and blue jay fans, they’ll either sign with the phils or will drive the price up on whoever they sign with.
A lot of garbage talk from the Brewers fan thinking the phils are 2-3 years always from competing .. you wish because your team is doing the same. The phils are at 2006 phase, morphing into 2007. It is reasonable to think they could make a run at the wildcard this year .. why would I say? Just look at their second half record with Hoskins in the lineup… now add Santana, and the continue development of Crawford, Alfaro, Altherr, and Williams. Don’t get me started on the improved bullpen. the phils are the sleeper WC pick of the NL. Once the WS team is crowned, the Phillies will be on the attack for the foreseeable future.
Hate all you want, but the phils are in a very unique position, let’s see if they execute it.
wrigleywannabe
not trying and nor signing him are two entirely different things
petfoodfella
You’d think Philly would realize how bad a giant contract would be after Howard’s. Harper is gonna get more, and produce as he has, average at best.
1 good year and the rest are just average at best years. You’d think these teams would learn by now.
Coast1
Ryan Howard’s contract didn’t hurt them at all. It was a waste of money but it only would’ve hurt them if it limited the amount of money they could spend on other players. It never did. They signed Byrd and Burnett and would’ve signed more players. Their problem is that all the players got old and declined and they didn’t develop or trade for replacements.
Donnie B
The Phillies could actually afford them all and still be under the luxery tax!
brucewayne
You forgot Trout !
philsphan1979
It only doesn’t make sense to you as a brewers fan, because you were hoping he’d sign with your team..And saying the Phillies are 2-3 years away tells me you follow baseball too much. Both of your comments were absurd
brewcrew08
As a Brewers fan I don’t want any part of Arrieta and his decline. Not at 20M -25M per and aging fast. Much rather see Cobb or a trade as a Brewers fan. Who in the Phillies lineup is a proven hitter outside of Santana, Herrera and Hernandez (average wise). Proven means they have shown they can do it for over a season in the bigs. It’s great to have “hype” doesn’t mean anything until it clicks. The Phillies rotation is worse than the Brewers too and that’s saying something
waxbuddie
Phillies lost 96 games last year. It doesn’t take much “following” to realize they suck and going after Arrieta is “absurd”. Get real my friend, brewcrew08’s comments were perfectly valid yours is just noise
prich
I’d argue that the Phillies lineup will be very good this year and the rotation will be what holds the team back. I think Hoskins has the track record in the minors and now majors that proves he is an elite offensive threat. Scott Kingery gets the Pedroia comp because he had a 870 OPS. Cesar is consistent on base guy and Santana stabilizes with patience and power. Altherr hit a GS off of Kershaw. My point is, the lineup is better than you think. Also Phillies are in transition. New manager gives team clean slate. Arrieta can give veteran presence and stabilize rotation. I’d frontload a deal with him because Phillies are at 60 Million dollar payroll. They have to spend for the fan base and arrieta is best option.
michaelw
Lol I was going to say the same thing Phils – Milw fans had the division won when they got Yelich lol so they thought. Funny one guy going to bring them to the promise land. Yelich couldn’t get Miami over 500 with Ozuna – Stranton flanking him n Gordon. Won’t make much of a difference in Milw esp with that rotation. Your right Brewer fans had sugar plum fantasy of Archer. Lol please. Now JA about to go off the board. Only real one left is Cobb n Lynn both w a draft choice attached lol good luck.
Bahh maybe the Brewers will get Timmy L lol haha
GenoSeligPrieb
Some QUALITY trolling there, MichaelW! How’s the flooding down there in St. Louis?
brewcrew08
I couldn’t follow your complete lack of baseball knowledge with all the “lol”.
1) As a Crew fan I want no part of Arrieta. Not to mention your “about to be off the board” comment is incorrect. Unless you know something we don’t?
2)I didn’t realize Archer had been moved or couldn’t be acquired still? Again unless you know something we don’t.
3)Arrieta will have that same draft pick attached so not quite sure what your argument is there
4) not sure who said Yelich would win the division for the Brewers. However adding a all-star in his prime years will certainly help.
So in all your comment has zero substance.
michaelw
Don’t know I’m not from St L. Lol
Only making a true statement that’s not trolling. Should we back up to the day they got Yelich and read the comments. I can make you look even more stupider.
Regi Green
Phillies did lose 96 last year. 1st half of the year, with guys like Michael Saunders,Cam Perkins,and Tommy Joseph playing everyday, they looked like a lock for the 1st pick in the draft. And then when guys like Hoskins,Williams,Crawford,and Alfaro got to the show, they played 500 ball. So you can look at the overall record, but you ignore their development in the process. Add Santana,Arrieta,and a likely improved bullpen,not to mention the Marlins tear down,and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.
Cat Mando
Regi Green…stop being logical…didn’t you know it’s not allowed on the internet?
michaelw
I guess you sure don’t follow your fan bases comments.
As someone said it doesnt make sense to you but it does for the Phillies. When you own a team then you can spend your days making sense of things.
I never said JA didn’t have draft pick. My point was after him the only ones left are Cobb n Lynn. Both with a drat attached.
Your right the signing season isn’t over but it is for Milw. If you followed your team you know your GM already said they are going with what they have. But you keep dreaming.
As far as Cobb over JA. You are stupid. If you think Cobb worth 5 years at 18 million your an idiot.
JA may be on a decline but he no where near JA class. Not even close. I hope you do sign him.
Like the over pay for you did for Cain. Cain I won’t laugh it bothers you.
Your right Yelich will make you about 4 wins better. Your predicted to win 86 games btw.
As far as Archer that’s your fan base talking. I’m sure anyone who came with an offer of top prospects gets the deal done even now.
Last before you judge me I know a lot about baseball. I’ve followed the sport before you were born. Before Mike even had a team. So save your high ego and bs for the playground. Brew Crew.
Good luck this year you will need it.
mikeyst13
“Your right the signing season isn’t over but it is for Milw. If you followed your team you know your GM already said they are going with what they have. But you keep dreaming.”
Actually Stearns has said that they are comfortable going into the season with what they have, but they are still looking at possible signings and trades to improve the rotation. Attansio, the owner, has also said that they have more than enough money to spend to add an arm.
While I agree with most of what you said, If you’re going to attack someone and call them an idiot with your “facts”, at least make sure they’re correct….
wrigleywannabe
there were a lot of Mil. fans on this sitecsaying they were going to run away with the division
iverbure
LmAo
Christopher_Oriole
Don’t forget who the Phillies GM, or head of baseball ops is. A guy who has quite a bit of experience with Jake. The guy who pulled the trigger to trade him to Chicago.
lord vincent
Andy did not trade Jake that was Dan’s first trade as GM at Baltimore.
kleppy12
First, 33-34 isn’t that old for a pitcher, it’s passed their prime but far from done so he could easily still be a solid #2-3 in a decent rotation. Second, even if they are 2-3 years away if they sign him to a 3-4 year contract he will be coming off the books right as they hit that period and it opens up all that cap so I’m not sure what your argument against signing him is. For the record I’m a Twins fan that could careless about the Phils or Arrieta, who I don’t want the Twins to sign.
brewcrew08
My argument is that if Arrieta is a 3 come 2020 when the Phillies could possibly be contending he won’t be worth anywhere near 20-25M per. If you’re looking for a 3 come 2020 you sign Cobb for 17M per and throw the money elsewhere. The Phillies need so much it makes little sense to tie up 40M in Arrieta and Santana.
Brixton
they can support a 185M payroll at their apex, they’re currently at like 50-60M. They’re fine right now.
ray_derek
Let’s wait and see what he signs for, it’s all speculation either way, maybe it’s just a 2 year deal or maybe it’s front loaded deal like the JD deal is with opt outs. It makes sense for the Phils and doesn’t make sense depending on the contract. I get why they’re interested, but if they sign him to a 6 year 140 million deal, I think we can all agree that they’re insane.
PhanaticDuck26
but your’re missing the point, brew. are the Phils supposed to just roll out Nola and then an assortment of unproven arms all season just because they are not “ready to compete” according to some arbitrary standard? Well, hell guys, Keith Law and his band of idiots say we wont compete till 2021, so how about we not make an attempt to improve until 2021? thats not how it works. Arrieta is available NOW, he makes the team better NOW, and Phils have insane payroll flexibility NOW.
kleppy12
My point is that it doesn’t really hurt them though, if 2020 is JA last season with the Phils then yes he might be a little over paid as a #2-3 but he still helps you if you’re competitive and then after that season he’s gone anyways so what are you really losing?
michaelw
Well G Brew Crew will Zack G be worth 34.5 million when he’s 36 how about 37? 38?
I rest my case
rcmacc
PECOTA projects us for 78 wins this season with a horrible rotation, adding a good pitcher to replace the likes of Ben Lively bumps us up maybe to the 83 win area and with a good run we can get up to 87 and get a wildcard in 2017. PECOTA is also very down on Cesar Hernandez who has been a 3-4 WAR player for the past few seasons, and they’re not super optimistic about Herrera either, so I could see us going on a run and surprising some people this year
steelerbravenation
Nah they sign him & sign Machado or Harper next year add in the Nats inevitable decline and any team in that division with the exception of the Marlins have a chance to win that division.
Regi Green
Well, starting pitching was our biggest ? ending the year last season, so how could adding 1 of the top 2 on the market not make sense?
Tom
How is confusing? The Phillies want a veteran who can eat innings and hopefully give them quality innings for a couple of years. I doubt they’re going to sign him for 4+ years; they’ll probably offer 2-3 years at big salaries to entice him. Nothing wrong with it, as whatever contracts he signs in Philly (if he does) won’t be a long-term payroll draining one.
walls17
It makes too much sense for them. Should’ve been in on him from the beginning
philsphan1979
They were, but they played it smart and waited for his value to drop. There’s still other teams interested, so don’t be shocked if another team like the Nats swoop in and guarantee him that extra year
philsphan1979
Go get em’ Klentek! Give us some ray of hope this season…just don’t go over 3 years!
alexgordonbeckham
I predicted something like this could happen. Phillies sign a starter this off-season and add a bat next off-season.
baseballpun
Like a Carlos Santana type?
alexgordonbeckham
I think they (a lot of teams will be) in on Machado for either 3B or SS depending on how they feel about their current options. Maybe Donaldson as well.
mgrap84
I really wish the Orioles weren’t such tight wads and would go after him. Hell we should have never of traded him. We don’t even have the player we got back. Smh. Not to mention the 43 Mil we still have.
Begamin
As a Yankees fan, i will tell you that getting Arrieta would be stupid for BAL. The Orioles are not ready to contend and they arent a Jake Arrieta away from contending either. Not to mention the fact that Arrieta could very well be on a decline and be asking for extremely high figures. For a team not ready yet, i wouldnt go after him. Maybe if you were to somehow get him for cheap or a short amount of time it would be a good idea. But if the Darvish deal is anything to go off of then if i were in charge of the Orioles i would avoid it. Hell, i would go full rebuild if i were the Orioles. Theyre losing value everyday they dont trade Machado, Schoop, Davis, Trumbo, and others for prospects/salary relief.
Dark_Knight
They fit each other perfectly. Philly’s the only big market team left needing an Ace. If they can get him on a high salary 3-4 year deal I’m all for it as a Phillies fan.
chesteraarthur
Jake is not an ace anymore…
Djones246890
Agreed. I don’t think people can quite grasp exactly how far this guy has fallen off. He was most recently our 3, in Chicago, and he was almost made a 4. People really need to understand that this guy is not the championship Arrietta.
DaBum
Except he’d have to stop using his best pitch.
rcmacc
Which is his cutter? That was a minor league pitching coach for the Orioles that screwed him up, the Phillies have been historically open to letting pitchers use all their pitches, even when its a slider and a curveball (Velasquez/Carlton) or a slider and a cutter (Lee) and even wanted their pitchers to use more pitches to be more effective (Hamels/Halladay)
Yankeepatriot
Well the Phil’s have plenty of salary room. No more than three years would be fair for them as his stats have been declining for the last few seasons
philsphan1979
I smell a 3 yr/80 mil deal with a club option for a 4th year
T_Rexx2
I’m thinking 4 with an opt out after 2. Maybe 90 mil, 25 mil in the first 2 years and 20 in the the second 2.
frank_costanza
Think Arrietta is in decline and isn’t an ace anymore but if I’m the phillies I’d have no reservations about a cespedes type deal. I’ll always take a sky high AAV deal with early opt outs rather than years. That type of deal make sense for both parties
brewcrew08
A short term deal makes little to no sense for Arrieta. Sign a 3 year deal so he can hit the market at almost 35..?
Greg Pinto
They’d jack up the dollar amount so that he sees value over the life of the deal, similar to what they did with Carlos Santana.
It’s not a bad option for a 31-year-old starter in obvious decline.
frank_costanza
$20+ mil a year guarantee with an opt out each year over the span of 3-4 year deal would have to be a pretty hard deal for him to decline at this point in the offseason. I still think someone gives him a 5 year $100 mil deal, so this is all moot. But players are taking deals similar to that more and more. Unless someone is gonna give him the mega deal he’s looking for, 3-4 years of $20-25 guaranteed with opt outs would be a pretty sweet deal. Also considering that the phillies go from being an after thought to real contenders for a wild card spot with him in the rotation.
mike156
A “dialog”. sounds like something from one of those British drama series–manor house, lawn tennis being played in the background, uniformed servants…
PhanaticDuck26
will you be taking afternoon tea in the garden today, sir?
Begamin
isnt it great that people’s vocabulary is so barren that a simple word like “dialogue” makes them think of fancy British people.
oh and btw, its “dialogue” with an “ue” at the end and not “dialog”. dunno if you have any essays to write or anything but if you do then i would suggest not making such a mistake because a professor/teacher will probably mark off points for that
PhanaticDuck26
thanks for the grammar instruction, professor
itslonelyatthetrop
I’d stay there for a year, somewhere in the $22 million range. Mutual option for ‘19. Maybe get an opt out clause at the All Star break? (j/k)
arp7241
Are the Phillies a good player or two away from being competitive? I feel like they aren’t… which is also why the Santana signing still puzzles me
brewcrew08
Don’t ask Phillies fans that question. 2019 is their year.
Greg Pinto
You have to make pretty generous assumptions about player development, but I’d say yes.
They have a ton of talent on this roster and the players are buying in to what Kapler is selling.
stymeedone
what evidence is there that they are buying what Kapler is selling??
Greg Pinto
That’s what’s being reported early on. I’ve read a few different profiles.
waxbuddie
Apparently so, signing Arrieta will make up for that 31 game deficit they had in their division last year
philsphan1979
Waxbuddie this is commenting on your response to my comment up top^^. The Phillies were one of the lousiest teams last season yes (that’s a fact). But that was the first half of the season. 2nd half was a complete different subject. We were only 10 games out of the 2nd wildcard (facts my brother). Plus let’s not get over our heads here..nobody said were going to win the division this season or get a wildcard. It’s in preparation to contend for 2019 and beyond. Remember..Rhys Hoskins, Kingery, Sixto and our stacked arms in the minors? Same as the brew crew (which by the way look scary too in the future). Plus let’s not forget next years free agency, as the Phils are showing up to the winter meetings with briefcases of cash
getright11
“only 10 games out of the second wild card…” lmao
getright11
“only 10 games out of the second wild card…” lmao “in the second half” like that’s really something that exists.
reflect
Tough to say… They have a lot of upside from their young players, many of whom had down years in 2017. Its definitely possible they rebound and carry the Phillies like they did for most of 2016. But those same young players could just be busts who had one hot year.
I would not be surprised if they win 90 games. I would also not be surprised if they win 70 games.
brewcrew08
They won’t win 90 games with a 2-5 if Eickhoff, Velasquez, Pivetta and Lively
brewcrew08
Might get 30-35 total wins from those 4..
philsphan1979
If it was me and you on a boat alone together, I’d throw you off haha jk..no but seriously go troll on another thread man. Your comments are in act of rage, and speculation, non factual (besides the Phillies had one of the lousiest records last year) for bringing one fact to the table. You are now 1 for 10
brewcrew08
Coming from the philly fan who thinks they contend in 2019. Take off the rose colored glasses my friend.
rcmacc
What about a rotation with the following ERAs:
1. 5.01 in 33 games started
2. 3.39 in 28 games started
3. 6.29 in 30 games started
4. 3.87 in 20 games started
5. 4.73 in 12 games started
6. 4.72 in 11 games started
7. 5.15 in 10 games started
8. 5.90 in 11 games started
8 pitchers made 10 or more starts this season, 2 of which had ERAs better than average, 6 had ERAs at or higher than 4.72
That was 2007 we won 89 games with a rotation like that. Nola can be better than Hamels was that season, Arrietta is notably better than Jamie Moyer, Eikhoff is better than Kyle Kendrick, and literally anyone is better than Adam Eaton. Don’t rule out a good season
mikeyst13
You’re also talking about a team with Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Victorino, and Rowand all in their primes. I like some of the young Philly hitters, but they’re nowhere close to that group….
brewcrew08
That 2007 Phillies team had Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino all in their primes. Add Burrell, Rowand and Ruiz too. The 2018 Phillies lineup doesn’t even hold the 2007 teams bags.
PhanaticDuck26
@ brewcrew, criticizing Phillies moves when your team went out and got…wait for it… Yovanni Gallardo to provide innings? cant wait to see how your pitching moves (or lack thereof) work out for ya this season
brewcrew08
Man all this philly fans must know something I don’t. Is the offseason over? Did I miss that? Pitching wise we’ve added Chacin, Albers and Logan. Not great by any means but STILL better than Philly. Oh and I think Cain/Yelich would count as “going out to get someone”
mikeyst13
I don’t think anyone really plans on Gallardo providing meaningful innings. He’s on a non-guaranteed deal and the Brewers have a bunch of young guys who are probably more likely to make the rotation out of camp than he is.
PhanaticDuck26
right, same situation as phils rotation, yet Brew cant seem to wrap his head around the idea that the Phils are trying to improve their situation by adding an established starter.
raef715
i didnt love the santana move but i get it; a veteran for the position players who has a high OBP, which the phillies value and he can demonstrate to the younger players. already has a locker next to Maikel Franco.
I would have preferred Darvish to Arrietta- i really want no part of Arrietta, but a well constructed contract could provide the same thing for the staff.
start to build something here and make it more attractive for other free agents in the next couple years. with their minor league system and payroll flexibility there are in a better position then some may think.
frank_costanza
There’s a lot of “ifs” involved but yeah. There’s so much young budding talent primed to make the next step and they have the resources to go out and get someone at the deadline if needed. Rotation depth is there only real concern. Bullpen is good enough. If Hoskins, Alfaro, Williams and Altherr perform with the addition of Santana then why not?
xabial
After signing Santana, nothing surprises me anymore.
Bocephus
I get this signing to help these young starters the Phillies have. I don’t get why they signed Santana when they had a young controllable asset already. That Santana signing moved Hoskins to the outfield where it will block some promising young outfielders.
Regi Green
Like who, Dylan Cozens and Andrew Pullin?
Nick Williams will still get his time,and the Phillies other top outfield prospects haven’t even reached aa yet.
Coast1
Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr are arguably good enough to start and they’ll split time. The team has spent their last three #1 picks on outfielders, including the 1st overall pick. While none of them look ready for the Majors now players drafted that high can accelerate quickly. Scott Kingery looked like nothing special in 2015 and 2016 but now he’s a top 40 prospect. He’ll make the Majors 3 years after being drafted.
Since the Phillies are set at 1B, LF, CF, and RF for the next three years they’ll have to stay down on the farm even if they’re ready.
Regi Green
Again,none of those 3 have even reached aa…..and they’re not comparable to Kingery. Kingery was drafted from college, therefore he climbed the system quicker. And he still hit good enough to reach aa in his 2nd season, he just didn’t have the home runs. None of the 3 outfielders we’ve drafted have hit as good,and they were all high school players,so expect slower development.
boony19
With all the signings lately, I forgot about him, wonder what kind of offer the phils will give him
reflect
I had a dialogue with Arrieta once too. Cool guy. I didn’t sign him though.
dugdog83
-Theo Epstein
pinkerton
eh, what the hell, go for it. why not. no more than three years though. if it’s more than three, i’ll be fixing.
mikeyst13
I think they’d have to throw a HUGE AAV at him to get him to agree to 3 or less years, even this late into the process. This is his last shot at a big contract, he doesn’t want to be hitting the market again at 35.
jdgoat
This makes a lot of sense. If I’m them, I’d pay more annually for less years. Maybe something like 4/100 million. They have a good, young core right now and will likely be adding at least one of Harper, Donaldson, or Machado next offseason, so this could get them going in the right direction.
mikeyst13
Why would you assume that they are likely to sign one of them?? There is going to be huge competition for all of them and Machado has said that he wants to be a Yankee, meaning they’re already on the outside on him. They’ll make a run at those guys for sure, but to assume that they are likely to sign one of them is pretty presumptuous.
michaelw
Yeah I agree. While I don’t see NY signing everyone n Harper won’t fit I do see NY going all in on Macho. I also think if St L doesn’t make post season this year they go all for JD.
I’m not sold on Harper in Philly either. They have the money but I think he is after a title if Wash doesn’t get there this year.
mikeyst13
Yeah, with the reports that Manny wants to be a Yankee, they want him there, and they are trying to limit their luxury tax this year to spend next offseason I think everyone else is on the outside looking in on a Machado deal. Harper doesn’t seem like the greatest fit, and while they will have the money to go after him I’m not sure they’d be comfortable going as high as some team undoubtedly will when they’d be blocking some of their young OFs in the same process. That leaves JD and I’m with you, I think the Cards make a hard push at him.
Bocephus
Yankees have made nothing known they want anyone..because legally and ethically they can’t.
mikeyst13
“Officially” of course they haven’t. But there are plenty of reports out there form “sources close to the organization” that Manny wants to be a Yankee and they want him there. Obviously you can only trust those reports so much, but there are a lot of them out there.
michaelw
They can’t talk to no one no. But there is no rule that says you can’t say we would like this guy or that guy. As for the player to say I like to go here or there. That’s not against rules. Although it is seldom done. Where the rule is if there is any contact with the player about going to the team or any neg before FA. But a team and or a player can say whatever they want.
jdgoat
Young core and lots of money means they’ll be going after them. And machado to the Yankees isn’t a done deal. He’ll more than likely go to the team who offers him the biggest deal
mikeyst13
Nobody is arguing that they are not going to go after them, just a little early to assume that they are likely to sign one of them.
brewers214
as a brewers FAN I would love to sign Jack Arrieta but only to a 1-2 year deal would rather have Alex Cobb on a 4-5 year contract
michaelw
Never heard of Jack Arrieta is he a prospect or one of those international players? Never heard of him lol
michaelw
BTW before you give me thumbs down it’s Jake you idiot not Jack. You don’t even know the name of guy and you want him lol.
mikeyst13
Not sure if this is the guy, but there is someone on Brewer threads all the time referring to him as “Jack”. Not sure if it’s an attempt at some inside joke that nobody else gets, or he really thinks that’s his name……
michaelw
Hey Brewers214 if you rather have Cobb on a 4-5 year deal then you aren’t very smart and don’t know baseball like you do called pretend you do. JA might be in a decline of course after 1.77 era any pitcher would be on a decline.
But Cobb is not even in the same class as JA not even close. You want the Brewers to take Cobb over JA for 5 years. That is funny at 17-18 mil a year.
That’s 5/85 on the low side for 17 a year. Even at 15 a year that 80 million
Even at 4 years that’s 60 million. He’s not even worth 40 million. Turned down a 3/48.
I rather pay JA front loaded for 5 years and spend the extra bucks.
5 years on a guy like Cobb. Injury prone, hasn’t pitched over 180 innings and had the 3rd lowest swing strike rate of any SP and never made 30 starts a season.
But your the smart one. I like to see the Brewers sign Cobb for 4-5 years. I like to see that. Now who is dumb one?
But you have it your way. Expert.
Ok
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
I’m not entirely sure why, but even during his brilliant Cy Young season, I never deeply believed in Arrieta. I’ve never seen him pitch in person, but the times I’ve seen him on TV (maybe 18 or 20 times), he’s always given me the impression that he’s a batter or two away from completely losing control of the game. Irrational on my part?
Braves Homer
Every pic I see of Arrieta in his wind up makes it look like his Jersey is on backwards or he missed a couple of buttons lol
Phillies2017
Klentak- stop, now.
Don’t overpay for this past his prime starter.
PhanaticDuck26
i feel you
gopackgo
what about jake Arrieta on a 2 year 44 million gives him 22 million a year and he will get more per year than Yu Darvish
PhanaticDuck26
but whhhhhhhhy would he accept that?!
5 years, 100 million…opt out after 3. a similar structure/AAV to J.D. Martinez. While I realize you cant compare pitchers and position players equally, I think they have a strong similarity in that they were elite players in the recent past (JD more so), but both have glaring red flags that have prevented them from signing massive deals and kept them lingering in FA till mid-Feb.
I bet Jake has an offer very, very similar to 5/100mil/opt out after 3 years from some team other than the Phillies, so very short term, high AAV proposal won’t get it done, IMO.
sandman12
As a Marlin fan, it’s nice to laugh at a divisional rival for once. Signing Arrieta for three-five years at $20M plus would be a major error – pitchers tend to fall off a cliff as they age, and he’s already previewed his decent.
philliesfan215
Marlins fans have no room to laugh at any teams, that’s first off.
second, we can easily afford a 200m payroll. Arrieta at 20m for 3 years would be nowhere close to detrimental to this teams ability to sign any players moving forward.
RunDMC
Yes, but a $200M payroll with Arrieta as the “ace” is laughable. Whoa the days of Halladay, Lee, Hamels.
philliesfan215
I don’t think anyone who actually knows baseball expects him to be the “ace” of the staff. I certainly don’t and nobody I’ve talked to does either. Again it all comes down to you have to pay him like an ace to get a player like him to come to this team after the rebuild. We’ve been through this already with Thome most recently.
raef715
payroll is less than half that currently.
Coast1
If the Phillies have a $200 million payroll in 2019 then Arrieta is likely the 4th or 5th starter. If they add $130 million in players next off-season they’re probably adding at least two $20 million+ a year starting pitchers.
RunDMC
I’m sure the young guys are going to love making peanuts and having to bare the rotation on their backs while their presumed $20M vet is performing like a #4 in the rotation. Hopefully he’ll pick-up the tab to make up for it. That’s how Thome got in the Hall.
Phillies2017
***Descent
Don’t throw stones if you live in a glass house
Regi Green
As a Phillie fan, I just laugh at the Marlins as a whole. Team could win 100 games and still not sell out. Team has built 2 championships in 25 or so years, just to sell everyone off right afterwards. They’re like a semi-successful AAA team, they develop talent for everyone other than themselves.
rocketfish19
Was there any doubt Arrieta would be the last big guy to sign? He’ll end up with a front loaded deal like the rest so he can opt out.
fs54
FWIW, Jake has good numbers against rest of NL East teams. Phillies should add him.
ThatBallwasBryzzoed
5/115 with an opt out after 2 years. And an option for a 6th year if he wins the cy young or finishes 2nd. So 5/115 and up to 6/132
michaelw
After JD contract not going that high
4-100 opt after 2 sounds about right
Tops 5-110 opt after season 2 n 3
Front loaded.
That’s my pick
kodiak920
Phillies have money to spend. Not quite there yet, wildcard contention in 2019 or 2020 seems more likely, but I expect them to be in on any cornerstone type players going forward.
michaelw
He get 4 years 100 mill watch with opt after 3
Or 5/110 with 2 opt 3rd n 4th season
It be front loaded also.
rycm131
You know a team like the Yanks, Boston, Dodgers etc. will end up singing him
michaelw
Neither can afford him. If LAD n Yanks could get Darvish they for sure won’t sign JA. It take 17 million a year for that too happen and there no way he do that deal. Yanks n LAD are off the board. Let alone JA has a draft pick attached to him.
Boston doesn’t need him and already over the cap esp now with JD
Bocephus
Yankees can most certainly afford anyone they’re just holding tight. Geesh
michaelw
They can’t afford him as far as the Lux tax. I didn’t mean over all money. Same with LAD.
If they go over that cap again it will not reset n they be paying big time.
So no they can’t afford him. Unless they trade a contract that not happening.
Bocephus
That is why I said that “they’re just holding tight”. No biggie on this guy (Arrieta) and I never believed the Yankees were in on Darvish either despite Joel Shermans shoddy reporting.
michaelw
Probably true. I’m just saying as far as the tax they won’t go over.
Really I think Yanks will get one more IF on a pillow contract to give the young guys one more year of growing.
Djones246890
In the old days, I’d say you’re right, but not in this new era — where a luxury tax is in play, and teams are finally using fiscal sense. The George Steinbrenner era of signing guys to absolutely ridiculous contracts is over.
michaelw
Thank you. Darvish would be in LA today if it wasn’t about Tax.
Yank fans still think it’s a free for all.
some guy 2
Could work. What about a front loaded 3-year deal that gets him to the same AAV as Darvish? Maybe $20 mn+ $5 mn signing bonus in the first year, and $19 mn for years 2 and 3? That way the Phils can flip him at the All-Star break (eating some of the $10mn remaining to get a better prospect) or Arrieta opts out at the end of the year. If he blows out his arm, the Phils ‘only’ take a $19 mn hit in years 2 and 3.
bigjonliljon
Would be good landing spot for Jake. He could be for the Phillies what Lester was for the cubs. A top SP signed about a year before they’re ready to contend. But I predict Jake will continue regressing and turn into a bad signing by contract end
philliesfan215
As long as it’s a reasonable contract (High aav with early opt outs) there is no downside for the phils to sign him. He won’t come anywhere close to breaking the bank, and he will be a good mentor for the young guys we have coming up in the rotation. The only downsides to any potential deal are Klentek going nuts and doing something long term, or Arietta getting hurt and not being able to perform at all..
If we have to overpay a bit for performance on a short term high aav deal that’s the cost of doing business when you’re in a rebuild. You need to hand out contracts like that to get players to come to your team or take you serious again.
michaelw
Agree w you Phillies fan. Don’t listen to the trolls. We went through same BS about YU.
PhanaticDuck26
generally agree with your outlook, but mentor to the young guys? maybe its just me or some random gossip i heard, but it seems like “good clubhouse guy” and “Jake Arrieta” dont find themselves in the same sentence very often
philliesfan215
I don’t necessarily mean hes gonna be nice and fluffly with the young guys. But if he goes out and prepares hard and does all his work between starts and is just generally working hard then the young guys will learn from that and THAT is what i want.
Yes, you can get that much cheaper, but the upside (granted I don’t expect him to be who he was on someone like Arrieta is much higher)
lowtalker1
Could be good
Could be bad
PhanaticDuck26
brevity is the soul of wit, but I’m sure you knew that
pinkerton
take your upvote good sir.
yankees581
I find it interesting that the rep of Darvish checked in with Arrietas camp to see if they had a thought on his contract but owners talk and its collusion hmmmmm
yankees581
I find it interesting that the reps of Darvish checked in with Arrietas reps before signing his contract but if owners talk it’s collusion hmmmmmm
Jeff Todd
The Cubs, not Darvish’s reps, reportedly checked in with Arrieta.
PhanaticDuck26
so many good posts/arguments on the topic of Arrieta to the Phils, and you picked THIS garbage to reply to???!!!
Come on, Jeff… What’s your Arrieta to Phils prognostication?
xabial
Jeff doesn’t want spread of false news in article (comments)
I approve 🙂
michaelw
Think you got your facts wrong bud at 581
One Fan
OMG you think Darvish’s agent called Boras to compare offers? Hilarious
metseventually
Pitcher on a fast decline moving from a pitchers park to a hitters park? Loving this as a Mets fan.
Bocephus
When did Wrigley become a pitchers park?
michaelw
It didn’t Collin forgive him he’s a Mets fan. Same as the Brewer fan calling Jake Jack. Some people you can’t reach.
One Fan
Actually Michael and Collin Wrigley is more a pitchers park then hitters
michaelw
True when the wind blowing in lol
One Fan
Wrigley Field is actually more of a pitchers park then a hitters park. The wind blows in much more then the handful of times it blows out that you see in the highlights.
Wind blows in and the air is heavy and cold in April May September and October.
cubbybluethruandthru
Wow, I thought most of you were intelligent, don’t you see this is Boras blowing smoke up your know what, Arrieta in no way how does he sign for under 25 mil a year, and at least a 6 year deal!!! NO WAY!!!
michaelw
I’m not so sure. I’m still sticking to 5/110 with 2 opt outs front loaded.
phutility
If True The Phillies, Macphail + Klentak are all flaming morons. Phils play in a launching pad but have boycotted all offensive upgrades the past 6 years. But they’ll turn around and give an aging and declining Arrieta $25 M a year? I cant express enough how awful this Phils organization is. Absolutely clueless.
start_wearing_purple
Well Arrieta is a sinkerballer and his GO/AO rate tends to be greater than one so if a launching pad wants a high profile pitcher he’s a better option than Darvish.
That said, still hink the Phillies would have to get a short term contract in order for it to be worth it for them.
PhanaticDuck26
boycotted all offensive upgrades?!? You, sir, are clueless. You are the typical uneducated fan who relies on the instant gratification of big FA signings to keep your interest in the team, and then you are the same fan to criticize the team for signing a big “offensive upgrade” when the contract goes south. If you’d pay attention to what’s going on around you, you would see that the Phils rebuild has gone quite well, leading to a 2018 season in which we have an exciting chance to see who emerges as part of the CORE of players moving forward. Stop being a whining lil b*tch and try to just enjoy the state of the Phillies. They are a hell of a lot better than they were last year and the year before….
66TheNumberOfTheBest
“Mr. Klentak, there’s a landmine salesman on line one for you.”
PhanaticDuck26
haha, i like this one
Cat Mando
The only way big money contracts will work going forward from a club perspective (with the rare exceptions like Machado/Harper/Trout) is shorter term high AAV and/or front loaded with both a player opt out and latter year club options. Look at the example from the CBA for the penalties of longer term overages…..
“By way of illustration, a Third-Time CBT Payor Club with a $260 million payroll in 2018 will pay a 50% tax rate on its payroll between $197 million and $217 million; a 62% tax rate
on its payroll between $217 million and $237 million; and a 95% tax rate on payroll in excess of $237 million.” mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf
Granted that is the extreme but penalties are stiff for staying over. There will be teams like the Red Sox who will push the limits but eventually they will have to reset right now they are at $229,934,600 ($32,934,600 over per Cot’s). It will bite them.
With shorter term higher AAV clubs can stager contracts and retool easier
njbirdsfan
Whatever. He’ll quit on the Phillies just like he did the Orioles at the first sign of adversity.
jdgoat
Lmao how do you believe that. The orioles haven’t developed a starting pitcher sine Tillman, and even he was only slightly above average
Snowjack
Idiot!
Coast1
I’m amused by all those people who say the Phillies shouldn’t sign good players because they won’t contend. The Twins went from 66 wins to the wild card. Sure, that’s not the most likely outcome but we know it’s more likely if they add good players.
The Phillies can go over the luxury tax. They are currently 29th in baseball in salary. They could give Arrieta a 1 year $100 million deal and be under the luxury tax. Even Arrieta was worthless they’d get the same production out of him as they would from the money otherwise.
Because of front loaded contracts and the likelihood that they’ll jettison Franco and Hernandez their payroll will go down next year. The Phillies are the rare team that doesn’t need to make smart efficient buys. They can afford to waste money. That’s an advantage they should use. And no they don’t need to save money on a pipe dream they’ll sign the three best players on the market next year to huge deals.
Last year they gave Jeremy Hellickson $17 million, Howie Kendrick $10 million, Michael Saunders $10 million and Clay Buchholz $13 million. That’s $50 million for pretty much nothing. No one commented. Now that they want to spend it on a player who might be good they’re stupid.
Begamin
While you are correct that a team that was bad last year can leap into contention seemingly in a blink of an eye, the likelyhood of such a thing happening is so low that it wouldnt make sense to tie yourself down to long and lucrative contracts. Its just not a good business decision.
I also agree that the Phillies have a lot of money and a lot of room from the luxury tax so they should probably start spending. However, they should wait for next offseason to really start spending big money. If i was the Phillies, I would just let the prospects play and see who develops into what before filling those positions via free angency.
While the Phillies dont need to make smart buys, its still stupid to make stupid buys. Thats how you end up spending a lot of money for a losing team. Just because you have the opportunity to spend all your money, doesnt mean its the wisest choice. No need to overpay for a possibly declining pitcher in Arrieta, a possibly injury prone Cobb, and whatever mid-tier player is left in FA. Doing so would be more stupid of a choice than simply sitting on your money pile.
Coast1
It isn’t so low. Almost every year one bad team improves by 17 or more games. So the odds are low but not that low. Someone is going to do it, but the only way it could be your team is if you actually do something to make it happen.
What you’re missing is that the Phillies are perhaps the only team that can afford to make bad business decisions on contracts. They threw $70 million away on bad players last year and it didn’t impact them at all This is an advantage they have and advantages shouldn’t be squandered.
If Arrieta would be a steal at $15 million a year but stupid at $25 million then you’re talking about $10 million of wasted money. They can afford to waste a lot more than that.
How many good players do you think they can acquire in one off-season? They right now are about $120 million below the luxury tax in 2019. It’d be remarkable if they could sign players totaling that much money. They’d need Harper and Machado and more to sign with them to hit that.
Other teams can’t afford to waste money. The Phillies can take bigger risks and they should.
Begamin
No its still extremely low. Its a weak NL East, but the FAs left this offseason arent really worth spending money on, maybe except Logan Morrison, but in the Phillies case I dont think they need another 1B.
Im not missing the point that they can financially afford to make bad business decisions. What im sayiing is that it is STUPID to make bad business decisions. I agree with you that they have an advantage, but they have an advantage because they havent tied themselves down with longterm, overpaying contracts. They will have the same advantage next year in a better FA class, so it makes better sense to wait. You would squander your advantage more by overpaying for the current players left in this FA than if you were to wait until next years FA class. Thats something you dont seem to get.
If they can get Arrieta on a cheap deal then by all means they should get him. However, they should not give in just because they have the financial capabilities to do so. They Yankees overpaid for Jacoby Ellsbury at a time where they had ample financial capabilities and now they are stuck with him and his contract and its currently hindering the teams ability to obtain a player with a larger contract. If the Phillies were to go out and give in to Cobb, Arrieta, Lynn, Moustakas, and others, then they would have just shot themselves in the foot since they just overpaid and tied themselves down longterm to a bunch of players that arent even good enough to get your 96 loss team to the playoffs.
Just because you can afford to waste money, doesnt mean you should. The fact that you think they should, just because they can, is silly. Wasting money is still wasting money.
Cat Mando
Is it wasting money to set a precedent showing they are willing to for 3-4 years what others offer for 5-6 years. Shorter term high AAV contracts allow a team to retool faster. The Yankees signed JE to 7 years at $155mm. The Phillies have already stated they are not going long term “”Both general manager Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail (via Matt Breen of Philly.com) have indicated this week that the Phillies aren’t going to splurge on a long-term starter, in large part because they aren’t quite ready to push for a playoff spot, Zolecki notes. The team would be willing to pay more on a shorter contract, Zolecki relays, and Klentak revealed that doing so “is something we talk about frequently.” mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/nl-east-notes-phillies-…”
If you have a player looking (not JA because we really have no idea what Boras is asking) for 6/150 and the last 3 years are the normal years of decline for a player, don’t go there. If no one else is biting at 6 years but you think the first 3 years can be productive then offer 4/120. 3 years of production and the 4th to grease the wheel.
In JA’s case….MLBTR predicted 4/100….I would go 3/85 and a 4th year club only option. In 3 years he is gone and use the money to bring Mike Trout home.
Coast1
That’s quite a straw man. The Yankees added a 7 year $155 million contract to a team with a bunch of large contracts. The Phillies might add a 4 year $100 million contract to a team with one. And that one is only 3 years $60 million. No one is advocating the Phillies sign all of Cobb, Arrieta, Lynn, Moustakas, and others. Just add one of them.
If they sign Arrieta they still won’t get close to the luxury tax threshold while he’s under contract. So how can it hurt them? No, they won’t take on enough salary next off-season and it doesn’t make sense to put all their hopes into signing a bunch of players then. They can’t do that without bad contracts.
If the Phillies sign Arrieta they’ll do so for an amount and years they feel he’ll contribute. They’ll think it’s a good deal. He might not, of course, but they can afford to take the risk.
Snowjack
I’m a 50 yes a Cubs fan and can’t believe all the Arrieta Comments! I wish we could sign him again now! He’s still a top 10 pitcher! This guy works harded than 99 percent of MLB players! Anyone signs this guy for at least 5 yrs at 100 million will ride his back! Phillies, sign him I’ll dread having to play against him! I was afraid the Cards would sign him but the once best organization has went dumb and as long as Mike is manager they won’t win anything! If Milwaukee would sign him then Cub fans would be sweating it!
Frank kemble
Reading through the comments, actually hate seeing so many ppl bash the Phillies and say they are not ready to compete…these are ppl who think in a black and white one sided manner and couldn’t see it anyway. The Phils have the pieces to start to compete – now need some pitching to get them there. 92-93 they went from worst to first. All these ppl who say Arrietta is declining don’t know what they speak. He does not have very many innings on his arm, he had a hamstring injury… I think he was just sick of playing for the Cubs to be honest… I’d be sad too. He will sign with Philly. See you in the playoffs. They are better than you think. Closer than you think. Sick of my team getting bashed. I hope they corner the market next year and get Machardo, Keurchel and Kimbrel and maybe Harper for the hell of it. Lol
tac3
Preach brother! Screw the haters
The Phils can reasonably make then playoffs this year, they only need reasonable results Their SP, add arrietta and the road is even easier. The Phillies have laid the groundwork for a long playoff/WS contention period … your looking at 5-7 years of annoying fans of the brewers and Braves. They are for real, if not this year, then next.
Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, and Alfaro = Howard,Utley, Rollins, and Cooch… now add in Santana and one one of Harper, Machado, or Donaldson!
Don’t worry the pitichjnb is coming too! With further positional reinforcements
They hate us and we don’t care! It’s our time, Philly sports is firing on all cylinders – enjoy it Philadelphia … we waiting a long time.
Let brewcrewfanface fantasize about what turd tier prospects he’d trade to steal Hoskins away with … and what drugs he’d give the Phillies FO.
The Phillies are knocking on the door… about to bust through. IT will be much faster than you other fans want it to be… and last longer than you’d like too! Enjoy, philly will!
wrigleywannabe
you talk about people not having a clue and you say he was sick of playing for Chicago?
Most of his yelling numbers are declining.
it’s not all about total innings.
When you make irrational comments, you get bashed
wrigleywannabe
*telling
jd396
So Boras is engaged in monologue with the Phillies
Snowjack
I’m a 50 yrs Cubs fan and can’t believe all the Arrieta Comments! I wish we could sign him again now! He’s still a top 10 picture! This guy works harded than 99 percent of MLB players! Anyone signs this guy for at least 5 yrs at 100 million will ride his back! Phillies, sign him I’ll dread having to play against him! I was afraid the Cards would sign him but the once the best organization has went dumb and as long as Mike is manager they won’t win anything! If Milwaukee would sign him then Cub fans would be sweating it!
Cub4life
i too am sad about this but truth is Jake didn’t want to take a home town discount and who ever signs him will give up a draft pick which is worth a ton already .
Yu made more sense because NL haven’t seen much of him and we don’t lose a pick for him. While Jake still have upsides , some worry about his dip in velocity which seems to result in more BB than K . He had a very good spin rate compare to top pitchers but if his speed is down it doesn’t have the same movement as before .
He’s not going to be a James shield anytime soon , he’ll stick around and still good / decent but just not worth the asking price.
crazymountain
His walk rate went up because batters didn’t go for the pitches just off the plate. Arrieta is toast now as he has lost velocity two years running.
hiflew
Other than the Nats, every other team in the division is in some stage of rebuilding, except the Mets and who knows what they are doing. It is probably smart of the Phillies to speed things up a bit. It is better to get finished with the rebuild before the Braves because they are probably set up better. At least this way the Phils could get a head start.
Z-A 2
Honestly, I would have rather spent money on Arrieta than Santana. I think the Santana signing was a FOMO for next year’s FA class. If they don’t get Machado/Harper. I think a better pitching staff would entice bats, not an aging 1B/DH. Arrieta is what 31? And RH, so I wouldn’t go more than 3 years – 20 M. Basically what they gave Santana.
Begamin
The problem is that Arrieta is asking for much more than that. Its easy to sit here and make team friendly contact offers but its hard to get a player to accept one.
Z-A 2
That’s not team friendly thats what the market is bearing atm. Darvish got 2 years 45M with 4 player options.
tac3
It is just dialogue at this point, my guess it is near 30 per yr for 3 years. Gives arrietta another shot at signing a 2-3 year deal again while paying him for 4 years.. he can go back on the market and plug out his last deal. I can’t see the phils signings him past 3, and 4 is that absolute most, with the longer the deal the lower the AAV.
If it doesn’t happen, no sweat, the Phils have plently options to improve
Z-A 2
No one is giving Arrieta 30M a year, even for 2 or 3 years. This isn’t like the NBA and Sixers’ JJ Redick signing a 1 year 23M deal to get above the salary cap floor. 20-22M is prob where he ends up, the years idk.
cardsgoingyard
And the Cards inexplicably just sit on their money and their unproven prospects, content to go into the season with a staff with as many question marks as any in baseball. We fans are supposed to believe the front office is doing everything possible to put a championship caliber team together when we made one – ONE – decent move all winter. Maybe I can overlook not overpaying for Arrieta, but there was no reason we couldn’t have paid Darvish, and there’s no reason they can’t sign Moustskas. They’ll claim they want to be “poised for the ‘19 FA class) and then they’ll be outbid by everyone, and will have lost out on pitching/another bat both this year and next year. It’s maddening.
Honestabe
Jake has at least a +5 WWOS (wins without Strop)
deweybelongsinthehall
Good match. This seems equivalent to what SD did. He can be their Jason Worth player when combined with Santana. Harper next year or Trout via trade will see the team as on the rise so to speak. His dedication is also a role model for the younger players.
Cub4life
Truth is he’s 31 and this is prob the last time he’ll get to ask for a high asking price, he knows this and wants to capitalize on it. You can’t blame him for selling himself high , 4-5 years from now he could prob be done with BB not everyone is a bartolo colon …
Z-A 2
Don’t know why he doesn’t have a diet plan and clinic tho. TB12, BC40 – ideal waist size for his plan.
crazymountain
Arrieta’s ego should make him sign with the Phillies because I am sure he believes that just his presence alone will take the team to the WS….
Regi Green
At this point,i wonder if this was put out there to tempt the Nats.