There may not have been any formal extension negotiations between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson, but that doesn’t mean the Jays haven’t been exploring the possibility internally. To the contrary, GM Ross Atkins said at a recent PitchTalks event that the Blue Jays have placed their own valuation on Donaldson and suggested that the team has a good idea of how far it’d go in an effort to extend the former AL MVP (subscription link via The Athletic’s John Lott).
“We do have that number,” said Atkins during his presentation. “We have come up with a clear walkaway that we would be willing to commit to him to extend (the contract) for him to remain a Blue Jay probably for the rest of his career.”
Unsurprisingly, Atkins didn’t delve into the specifics of what that number would entail. Donaldson said recently that to his knowledge, the Blue Jays hadn’t engaged his agents at MVP Sports in extension talks, though one can imagine that the team will explore that possibility in the coming weeks once Spring Training gets underway. That’s typically the timeframe for players and clubs to negotiate extensions, though Donaldson could be one of the tougher players to pry away from free agency.
The 32-year-old got off to a slow start in 2017 but finished with an absurd .302/.410/.698 slash and 22 homers over his final 227 plate appearances, and he’s been on the short list of the AL’s best players for the past half decade. While Donaldson will hit the open market at an older age than most premier free agents, he’d still be primed for a massive contract in free agency, assuming a typically excellent year at the plate and in the field.
On a related note, Atkins also addressed the excruciatingly slow free-agent market, noting that teams appear to be less inclined than ever to push past their comfort levels to win the bidding on a player, calling it “good business to walk away and not [exceed] your value.” Atkins also touched on the fact that free agency tends to reward older players, noting that the “aging curve has been potentially overcompensated in the past.” Atkins did note that the Jays value experience (their signing of Curtis Granderson certainly seems to back that up). While other teams throughout the league surely do as well, it does seem as though the dollar amount associated with that value has declined in precipitous fashion.
How highly the Jays value the experience of Donaldson (financially speaking, that is) and how they’ll proceed with him will continue to be a pressing topic in Toronto for the next six months or more. If no long-term pact is worked out this spring, the question will shift from one of signing Donaldson long term to one of whether the Jays should trade the well-rounded slugger this summer.
Should the team finds itself buried in the AL East, that’ll be a fairly easy question, but if not, the Jays could face the unenviable task of balancing the short-term benefit of chasing down a Wild Card spot with the long-term benefit of bolstering their farm system with a franchise-altering trade of their best player. The Jays would have the option of making a qualifying offer to Donaldson and recouping some value in the 2019 draft, of course, but they’d almost certainly be able to top that value on the summer trade market.
mookiemvp
Not sure what the Jays are doing. They look like a 82-85 win team at best finishing third in the AL east and missing the playoffs. Should look to trade players and rebuild. Yankees and Red Sox have too much young talent coming up the next few years
bigdaddyt
Problem is with young pitchers like stroman, Sanchez and Osuna already in their prime along with two top 10 prospects that are position players. it’s hard not think the jays could have a solid core of players for years to come so why blow it all up now
darkstar61
“with young pitchers like stroman, Sanchez and Osuna already in their prime along with two top 10 prospects that are position players. it’s hard not think the jays could have a solid core of players for years to come”
That kind of describes the situation they have been in for the last few years though, with the team trading and spending heavily to try to fill in the gaps
The problem is, the guys in their primes continue to cost more and more (the 3 guys you mentioned are all already in Arbitration) and proceed towards their FA years, while the young guys continue to stay just off the horizon
Since the 2 big namesakes are expected to be ready in 2020, and with the 3 pitchers you mentioned all on pace to be FAs in 2021, well it gives the team a roughly 1 year window (2020) in which they need rather instant success from Vlad and Bo – but they will also have to continue to fill the other holes as well, as key guys like Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, and others will be gone starting in 2019
Nothing in their timeline really lines up very well at all, with their current projected single-season 2020 window unlikely to even see a team as good as the one they fielded this season or last
If they instead bit the bullet and traded a couple of their assets for other complimentary players to go with Vlad and Bo stating in 2020-21, then at least they would be relying on a group of similar time-framed players who would have a 3-6 year window together to succeed.
terrymesmer
bigdaddyt is right. And with so many teams tanking (and whatever the heck Baltimore is doing), why not be competitive? The worst-case scenario is the Jays are out of it mid-July and flip Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, Granderson, maybe even Russell Martin and Smoak (health allowing for all of these guys).
Free Clay Zavada
They are projected for 84 wins on Fangraphs, so they’re far from an “82-85 win team at best.” If things break right, they can win 90. So I wouldn’t count them out so quickly.
ellisburks
They are projected at 84 so 82-85 is pretty spot on. They will be 3rd place in the East and nowhere near a playoff spot. 90 wins is a fantasy land.
Momus
The Yankees and Red Sox are projected to be 91 teams, so by extension of your logic you would agree they are both 89-92 win teams at best?
ellisburks
Quite possibly. The major difference is that the Sox and Yankees are starting with a much better baseline of players that The Jays. The Jays are not a 90 won team.
jimmertee
Thanks ellisburks, I totally agree. Unless the Jays add 2 quality starters, one elite, and a catcher that is more than a backup, this team is going no where.
Out of the playoffs by all star break.
sngehl01
No dog in this fight, but that’s simply way off base.
I’m not trying to act like they have the greatest team ever here, but Estrada/Stroman/Happ/Sanchez make a respectable 1-2-3-4. They had FIP’s of 4.21/3.90/3.76/5.21 this past season, They were 4.15/3.71/3.96/3.55 last season.
In essense, they have 4 guys who are sub-4 FIP guys, or 3 with 1 guy (Estrada) close.
The Yankees had 1 guy do that in 2017 (Severino) and 1 guy do it in 2016 (Tanaka).
The Blue Jays hitting is far from studly, but Smoak (in my opinion) is more than capable of a repeat, even if it’s as a .260 bat with 30-35 homers. Donaldson is gonna do his thing. The rest of the lineup has some question marks, but Tulowitzki and Travis can both be good plays if you can get 150 games out of them (big if). With guys like Alford, Teoscar Hernandez major league ready now, they could win in the high 80’s in games this year. Not to mention Vlad Jr, Bichette looking like studs who can be in the lineup in 2019. Tellez looked promising in 2016, but fell off in ’17.
Of course they’d need a little good fortune to win 86-90 games, but it’s in the realm of possibility. Plus, who’s to say they don’t make one or two decent moves to give them a fightin shot.
I mean, who would have thought the D-Backs would win 93 this past season? (Heck, or that the Brewers would have won 86).
jbigz12
The Yankees are starting 2 rookies in their infield at this point. Their pen is stacked and they obviously have a solid team on paper but don’t tell me they can’t struggle especially if their young guys don’t do what we expect. Red Sox have their own question marks. Jays winning the division would be surprising but not insane. Luckily not every team gives up before the season and decides to rebuild their team.
Curtis Beale
The same Projections that had Diamondbacks at 75 wins for 2017. They may as well not even play the season! 93 wins! Pfffft!
aff10
No one said they were perfect. They’re just more accurate than general fan estimates are
jaysfan1994
The Jays are an 84 win team if everyone stays healthy. Guys like Tulo, Travis and Martin are projected to play a bunch of games in those projections which isn’t very realistic given their injury histories and increasing old age.
Maybe if they sign a top free agent pitcher they’ll be closer to clinching that wildcard spot with the Sox or Yankees and Angels.
ball_lover002
Nah my brudda they with be a 95-102 win team
terrymesmer
@ellisburks
> They will be 3rd place in the East and nowhere near a playoff spot.
The Jays are ranked #6 by FanGraphs, just three games behind the Angels for the wild card. That is very, very, very near a playoff spot.
> They are projected at 84
Last year, 85 wins got the Twins into the WC game. The next-best team had 80 wins, meaning, the Twins could have got in with only 81 wins.
Think about that.
bastros88
wait, 84 lies in between 82-85, what do you mean?
Free Clay Zavada
He said “at best.” The comment itself would’ve been spot on if not for that, reread the chain.
liam
True. But look at the wild card. The jays really need only 83-84 wins to get in that and that would be there best shot of doing anything in the playoffs.
Free Clay Zavada
How do they only need 83-84 wins to get a wild card? The Red Sox and Angels are currently both sitting at or above 87 wins and are the wild card frontrunners.
terrymesmer
@Free Clay Zavada
Last year the #6 team had 80 wins. That means, in theory, a .500 team could have made the wild card.
Torontopoly
TBH I think the plan is to hang on as a potential second wild card team for one more year. You’ll still have people in the seats with names that are recognizable from the last real push.
In 2019, you give Bichette and Vlad a real chance to break into the lineup (wouldn’t be against a September call up this year). Toronto is really lacking in pitching prospects but having two position prospects in the top 10 is nothing to sneeze at.
Ideally, they trade Donaldson to a team at the deadline for a haul of prospects. Probably one org top 3 and a few lottery tickets (half year rental). At 32, I question any plan to try and keep him on a long term deal. unless it’s team friendly enough to make him a palatable DH in a few years when his D declines.
ReverieDays
If like 20 teams are already rebuilding and tanking, wouldn’t it make sense to add a few guys and try for a Wild Card?
iverbure
20 teams aren’t rebuilding stop with the outlandish comments the jays like the leafs from 1994-2015 had no shot at winning next year when the Yankees and Redsox are stacked with young talent. Best thing to do is trade Donaldson for future assets instead of adding aging veterans only to win one more game. Worst thing is being In the middle, you want to be first or last basically. Jays front office should take a good look at the leafs from 94-15 and not listen to fans in Toronto, the fans are responsible for the constant failures with the leafs
jaysfan1994
The Jays could’ve competed in 2013 and 2014 if some people didn’t fall off a cliff or get injured for the entire season.
waterpoet
Agree and disagree.
Agree for your hockey component. A single top nhl draft pick can change the dynamics of a franchise (a benefit of tanking).
Disagree with you relating it to baseball. How many times in the last 5 drafts have the Yankees had a top 10 pick? They have scouted and acquired talent well in the draft and internationally. They’ve remained competitive while building a farm and not continually subtracting from it through trade. They have made in season trades when they knew they were out of contention- however they’ve by no means tanked on any season, in fact they were in the WC 2015.
As Dipoto said, more teams are in contention for the 1st overall draft pick than the WS. So you could argue the logical approach is to try win.
InPlayRuns
Yeah, WS is just for fans and money. It seems owners don’t care too much about it and see it as just another “distraction”. Easier to sell a “dream” than “reality”.
Momus
The 1994 Leafs went to the Western Conference finals against the Canucks so… uh, yeah, sure… they had no chance at winning since there were fully 3 other teams left in the playoffs and only 2 of those 4 teams could make the SC finals. I mean why did the Leafs even bother to play those 18 playoff games when they should’ve known they had no chance?
And from 1998 to 2003 those hopeless Leafs teams only managed three 100+ point seasons and only made the conference finals 2 more times. They basically might as well have tore it down, I mean they were only barely one of the 5 or 6 best teams in the NHL over those 6 years, so they should’ve known that they wouldn’t win a Stanley Cup and just sold everything off.
The rule to remember: if you aren’t the runaway prohibitive #1 favourite to win it all – give up.
jbigz12
Don’t even try unless you have a super team. The Indians lost Carlos Santana AND Bryan Shaw? It’s time to tear that team down. Don’t get caught in the middle!
Back to reality, Jays should try and compete. They’re right there for fighting for a WC. There’s plenty of useful guys in FA they could add to improve the team as well. Letting EE go was a huge mistake for them though. That lineup isn’t the same without him.
Momus
It’s not quite that easy. The Jays have a lot of pieces that make them competitive right now, and a very good chance at a wild card berth.
Secondly, every team can’t tank and rebuild at the same time, or there will be no market for the players they are looking to trade. It’s possible the Jays have looked into selling off pieces and haven’t liked the returns. The FA market has been very slow in part because there are about a dozen teams who aren’t even trying to compete this year.
tmlmikey
You are right in stating that it involves a little more. What hasn’t been mentioned when comparing the Leafs and Jays is the huge factor of attendance. The Leafs draw a full building pretty much no matter how good or bad they are. The Jays don’t have that luxury. They still have the right to juggle on field talent with profits relating to attendance.
Taejonguy
led the AL in attendance 2 years in a row…
ThePriceWasRight
in this scenario however you risk one year of good attendance (if your team is good) for potentially 3-5 years of poorer attendance while your team is rebuilding.
just like playoff chances, you can speed up a potential drop in attendance with a smart trade that maximizes your current assets.
jimmertee
The Jays have “the right to juggle”. Hogwash. All juggling means is putting money first , not winning. And because of the newish Rogers CEO own admission, they are looking to sell the club and the highest possible price, so rebuilding is out and appeasing and misleading the fans into believing that this team has a shot at winning is the corporate order of the day.
Don’t buy into the we are compteting garbage, The Jays may start 2108 well, but age, lack of talent, lack of quality depth, injuries will cause this team to fade.
CapitalJays
Damn, beat me to it
tmlmikey
Only because they were good. If they suck, attendance will be 60-65% of what it was and I think that might be being generous.
tmlmikey
That’s like saying you should sell a homeless person your house at a discount. I’m saying they have the right to try and do both… make money and put a good product on the field.
terrymesmer
> Not sure what the Jays are doing.
As noted by others, the Jays are projected at 84 wins by Fangraphs, #6 in the AL. They are only three wins behind the Angels….who somehow always find a way to blow it.
In 2017, only five AL teams had a winning record — the five playoff teams.
The bar to getting in the playoffs is lower than you think.
chichitog
Regular season has only 161 games.
chichitog
162
ball_lover002
They have Vlad the #3 prospect and Bichette a player with great potential
joshua.barron1
Who is the catcher in that picture? Are they playing in Atlanta?
Jnoyola5
Chris Gimenez it looks like when he was on the Twins
CoryM
That is correct. Definitely Gimenez
chound
Don’t blow it up, but trade Donaldson. Even if he signs, it is going to limit what you can do going forward. Add to Vlad Jr and Bichette arrivals. Keep the team young.
mike156
Extending Donaldson may be the right move for both sides. Donaldson would leave some money on the table for guaranteed money now. That takes away the uncertainty of health and performance issues, and it eliminates the market-forces problem FA are having right now.
TennVol
I would extend Donaldson to a contract similar to this: 30m the first two years, 25m the third year, 20m the fourth year and 15m the fifth and sixth year. A 6 year 135M contract with descending cost as his age increases. Also, I would let him know that he would probably move to first base after two years due to Vlad Jr needing that position.
ThePriceWasRight
sorry so you want to sign a 33 year old whos missed time the last few seasons to a 6 year deal?
I’m not sure where to begin with that one.
TennVol
Easy, you just say you disagree and give reasons why. And yes, i give him a 6 year deal move him to first base in two years and then to DH for his final year or two. As he showed in the second half last year, when healthy, he is a dominating force.
Capt’n
New to this, so please bear with me.
While I appreciate the logic …
How does this proposal work vis-a-vis the luxury tax and a $165 MM budget?
If the $30MM upfront years count now against the “cap”, then do they gave the money?
If it is smoothed out, ie $20MM+ per year for 6, not sure the money is there in the short term, and in the long term ?
So, first and foremost, how does this proposal work versus the luxury tax?
jimmertee
Signing Donaldson to a 6 year deal is lunacy. He has at best 4 years in his bat left and 2 years of passable defence left. He has already shown his fragility.
Yes he is an elite player, but a 6 year term is not a smart business decision. Shapiro and Atkins will never do it. Watch, they won’t do this.
My bet he is traded at the 2018 trade deadline to a west coast club in the playoff race.
jbigz12
If Vlad Jr is a 3B by then. Donaldson may very well be a better 3B than vlad jr. The bat is what makes him a top prospect.
TheBoatmen
Have to remember he is getting 23M now so you are only adding 7M which does not put them close to the cap.
soxfan7
I agree with this guy. Given their lineup compared to the Yankees and Red Sox, and the age of those teams players, I don’t even see the value in resigning Donaldson unless he is such a beloved player and integral part of the franchise (like a Miggy) that you just can’t bear to see him play for another team.
Donaldson’s value is as a trade chip to a contender who is weak at 3B or has an injury.
When were the Jays most successful, during down years for the yankees/red sox…unfortunately that doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case for either team for a few years. Best for the jays to rebuild. Overpaying for an injury prone third baseman on the wrong side of 30 is not beneficial for rebuilding.
Free Clay Zavada
So would you prefer a 5 year deal for the same cost? the AAV on this one is pretty team-friendly all considering.
brucewayne
He’s 32
darkstar61
Which means he will be 33 when this 6 year extension he proposes begins, correct?
gojays814
Thepricewasright….don’t make up facts to prove your narrative. Donaldson missed time last season he did not miss time the last “few seasons”. In the previous 4 seasons he played 158 games in three and 155 in the forth. He has not been a fragile player like Tulo and Travis. You can make arguments against signing him long term but it cannot be because he is fragile. Missing time in 1 out of 5 seasons does not constitute fragile.
terrymesmer
An absurd contract for an aging player. Remember, PEDs are being tested for and guys 35+ are not leading the league in HRs while playing in the field. After this horrid offseason for FAs, the market suggests you can sign Donaldson a four-year, $100MM contract. That’s the end of negotiations, the opening offer is probably 4Y/$80MM.
TheBoatmen
Donaldson can stay at 3rd. Vladdy will fill out before he reached the majors and will be moved to 1st base. That has already been talked about a lot. Bichette will go to 2nd while Warmoth stays at SS. If Donaldson is gone then Bichette moves to 3rd.
iverbure
And he will tell you he’s testing the free agent market. The reality is the jays are going to have to overpay for him to keep him for years they aren’t serious contenders. So they’re better off trading him and getting back what assets they can sooner rather than later. This market currently doesn’t seem to be that great for 3b so perhaps holding and hoping a team has a major whole come trade deadline time and the jays are 5 games back of a wildcard.
Momus
Front loading contracts actually costs the team *more* money. The Jays would be better off switching that contract around and paying him $15M escalating to $30M. Also, the Jays have more salary on the books now than they are likely to have any time over the next 5 years.
kylebaseball84
Blue Jays are in a tough spot because of Anthopoulos commitments to players like Tulo and Martin. He traded many top prospects drafted in 2010 and 2011 and lost just about entire scouting staff.
Rlaffy
And wouldn’t change it for the world. Why we didn’t give him the keys to the ship is ridiculous
Rlaffy
Do ships have keys?
terrymesmer
Haha!
jdgoat
I don’t understamd why people don’t think they can compete for a wild card spot at the very least. The main thing that killed them last year was injuries and a lack of depth. The depth has already been fixed, and you’d think they are still almost guaranteed to add one top of starter. And even if you think they have no chance of competing, the same was said about the Yankees and Twins last year, and look how that turned out.
darkstar61
“The main thing that killed them last year was injuries and a lack of depth”
In 2017 the Jays had 2 regulars with an OPS+ over 100;
Donaldson – who is great but getting older and is an injury risk
Smoak – who had a career 101 OPS+ going into 2017
Since then they added;
Granderson – 37 Years Old, off a 103 OPS+
Grichuk – hit .238/.285/.473 for a 95 OPS+ last season and .240/.289/.480 for a 102 the year prior
Overall the team sported an 88 OPS+, easily the worst in the AL. Meanwhile the position players combined WAR (9.8) was second worst in the game (ahead of only the Padres)
…if they seriously want to win, someone is going to have to learn to both hit and field the ball – hard finding many people on the current roster to do that though
jdgoat
That was with starting infielders of Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins though and sadly an awful Jose Bautista. You can’t tell me that Travis, Tulo and Grichuk aren’t a substantial upgrade. And Diaz and solarte were added too
darkstar61
Travis, Tulo and Grichuk are at best average players, while the team was merely 76-86 with other guys like Smoak and Carrera having career years
Even if they are all completely healthy this whole season though, it still leaves the team with merely 1 above average position guy on the club (if JD is healthy) – everybody else is average or below
There is no way of getting around that problem
jdgoat
Travis isn’t average. His bat is one of the most dynamic at second when he’s healthy. Obviously that has been a problem so far though
saveferris
Dont underestimate Solarte. This is the Padres cleanup hitter the past 2 years. Yes I know thats not saying a lot. But in a pitcher’s park, the guy hit 18 bombs. Playing regularly in the tiny AL East parks this guy can hit 25-30. And he has shown the ability to drive in runs – a skill a lot of guys dont have. I think he is a huge sleeper.
hetzel01
Donaldson better take a long look at what’s going in today’s FA market with players north of 30. I’d be begging for a 4 year extension!
Derek2447
I would rather trade Donaldson and get prospects in return. Donaldson will likely command $23 – $25 million a season if not more. If they don’t see Vlad Jr. as a 3rd baseman, then they could sign Moustakas at a much reduced cost this off season and keeping some power in the lineup without losing much on the defensive side of the ball.
saveferris
I dont think too many people would disagree that Jays should do a re-tooling, which includes dealing JD, with a target of becoming a serious contender in 2020. Heck even Atkins & Shpiro have admitted that’s exactly what they would do if it wasnt for the attendance. And therein lies the problem.
You have all this revenue coming in right now. The paying customers want a competitive team or they will bale. Sure they will come back (maybe) if team becomes successful again, but why take the risk?
Plus, if team isnt successful in 2018, you can deal JD in July without upsetting the huge fan base, and move forward with the retooling without losing too much of your fan support. Because not only did the fans see that you tried to win, but, also, by July you are that much closer to Vlad and Bo.
Like it or not, even in baseball the customer is always right, especially when said customer is laying down a lot of bills for your product…..
bosox90
I’m fascinated by the patterns that I see people follow every year. Advanced analytics will continue to have a huge place in the game, but they have become a crutch to make lazy fans sound smart in arguments. Nearly everyone buys into the same groupthink as if the season shouldn’t be played.
Last season I read hundreds (yes, hundreds) of comments about how the Jays signing Justin Smoak was about the dumbest thing the team could’ve done. The Mets and Giants were largely considered WC favorites/contenders. The Astros were being picked to win their division about equally as much as the Rangers and Mariners were. The Cubs were going to run away with their division and repeat with ease. The Yankees were easily a year away. The Twins were the worst team in baseball, and people mocked Twins fans that highlighted that the Twins weren’t as bad as their 2016 W/L record.
We know how last year went down. The Twins, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Yankees all made the playoffs. The Rangers, Mariners, Mets, and Giants didn’t, and didn’t even come close. Justin Smoak was the best player on the Blue Jays.
Yet here we are, and once again, everybody is making sweeping estimations for the 2018 season that are backed by a confidence so strong you would think they just got back from November of 2018 via the DeLorean. The Giants could win the west. The Red Sox could finish in last, again. The Twins may fall back to the cellar.
A large part of the projections will be incorrect. The Blue Jays may win 91 games, they may lost 91 games. A lot can happen. Let’s debate using facts and our own opinions and not invalidate others arguments because almighty fangraphs has decided the Jays will win 82-84 games.
OrioleDan
Well said.
pjmcnu
I agree with much (most?) of what you say. Even within front offices, groupthink has set in. They all have replaced thinking with numbers, because it’s easier. Algorithm says yes, do it. Algorithm says no, don’t. Refusal to think beyond the algorithm’s answer is celebrated as “discipline”. Numbers are supposed to HELP you think, not relieve you of the responsibility.
But in fairness to my Mets, literally everyone not named de Grom spent significant time on the DL, many at the same time. So it was less a misdiagnosis of their potential than an inability to ever have the players being analyzed on the field.
jbigz12
The orioles consistently have beaten fangraphs and mlbtr commenters projections. Nobody has a crystal ball. Half the league is tearing it down right now so the Jays absolutely have a Shot at a WC. Any team not committing to a rebuild is in it. Now more than ever. Don’t believe Justin smoak was influenced by any group think at all. Guy never did a thing in his career except be a busted top prospect. Don’t think the jays saw that kind of year coming in their wildest dreams.
jbigz12
But I do agree with your overall point here. Just as a spin off of this, I don’t know if we’ll ever see a turnaround like we did with the twins again. I think the a huge piece of that was that the tigers and the White Sox tore it down simultaneously. They made their teams significantly worse which allowed them to pick up a lot of games in their own division.
soxfan7
This is a great point, but I think a lot of it is based on a team’s talent pool and what will happen if that pool meets, exceeds, or falls short of its baseline talent.
The playoff teams that surprised (essentially the 4 wild card teams) all exceeded the expectations of their baseline talent pool. Aaron Judge (an integral part of the Yankees) success is Exhibit 1A.
The Astros performed at the level expected. The cubs (who were expected to repeat) performed at a level below their talent pool, but their pool is so deep that even a below expectations performance from them was good enough to get them into the playoffs.
I think the baseline of the Mets and Giants talent pool was a little over estimated entering the season (I mean neither team really added any key pieces from their 2016 rosters) and the injuries decimated them.
But to bring it back on topic, I think the pool of talent for the Jays just isn’t substantial enough to be a contender without guys exceeded their baselines. You need repeat performance from guys who had career years (Smoak), you need health and a return to form from their prime from aging veterans (Donaldson and Tulo), you need breakout performances from younger talent (Grichuk and Travis), and then you need the standard pitching staff to stay healthy and pitch as it’s baseline level of talent (Stroman and Sanchez). So for the Jays to compete, you need a perfect storm.
Whereas all the Red Sox need is baseline typical production and health from their lineup.
pjmcnu
I just looked at Sportrac, and it said the Jays have a payroll of $280M heading into 2018, far & away #1. Am I missing something? Is this correct?
DV8
No
antsmith7
They have Vlad Jr. If they extend Donaldson is one of them going to play 1B or DH?
Momus
Vlad would probably move to 1B since he’s considered a borderline defensive 3B. He’s basically a young Miguel Cabrera at the moment – the potential to be the best hitter of his generation (already an 80 (80!) hit tool as a prospect, and able to play 3B for the moment, but almost certainly headed for 1B/DH duty in the future.