11:33am: San Francisco isn’t the only team in the mix, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, who tweets that the Phillies, Red Sox, and unstated other teams are also still involved.
10:20am: The Giants are engaged in “serious contract talks” with southpaw reliever Tony Watson, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). It is not clear at this time what sort of contractual terms the sides are contemplating, but Watson is clearly the best lefty pen piece still unsigned at this stage.
This is certainly an interesting bit of news, due largely to San Francisco’s closely watched effort to improve while staying shy of the competitive balance tax line. Recent tabulations have suggested the team is only $2MM or so beneath the $197MM threshold at present, leaving little room for a player of Watson’s anticipated price.
If the Giants were to accept the luxury tax for the 2018 season, it’s at least fair to wonder whether they’d plan to go further over the line to add other players. On the other hand, part of the team’s strategy could be to engineer a mid-season sell-off to get back below the line if things don’t go quite as hoped.
As things stand, the Giants’ depth chart features Steven Okert as the top southpaw on hand. Josh Osich and D.J. Snelten also represent 40-man options, with recent minor-league signee Derek Holland perhaps also factoring in the mix if he cannot earn a rotation slot. San Francisco will ultimately hope for a bounce back from Will Smith, who is looking to return from a Tommy John procedure that was performed just before the start of the 2017 season, but clearly there’s some room for improvement.
Entering the winter, Watson was tabbed as the 44th-best free agent in MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 open-market players. We guessed the 32-year-old could command $12MM in total guaranteed money over two years. While he has plenty of general late-inning experience, our assessment was that he’d be pursued (and paid) more as a quality lefty specialist. Watson, after all, has long been much more effective against opposing lefties.
For some reason i had a feeling this was going to happen. He seemed like a good fit there.
What exactly happened?
2-3 year deal that’s extremely backloaded?
Doesn’t matter if it’s backloaded or not. The luxury tax is based on the average annual value of the contract the player signs.
well I would think that it means that they will look to offload salary somewhere if it happens.
That wouldn’t help with the luxury tax. That’s tabulated by the average annual value of the contract instead of differing from year to year.
what if you do a 1 year deal worth 2 mil, with 2 player options worth 10 mil each?
@ ef1t….in your scenario yes it is considered guaranteed. ARTICLE XXIII—Competitive Balance Tax – E. Determination of Salary – (5) Option Contracts – (ii) Page 119-120. CBA link
mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf
The amount of hardcore fans that have no idea how this luxury tax thing works is something.
Congratulations, you’re the best fan because you know how a luxury tax works. Do you want your medal mailed to you or can you pick it up in person?
I’m not sure why you’re so sensitive here, he didn’t say (or even suggest) that he was “a better fan” in any way. What he did actually say is that it’s surprising that such a large portion of the “hardcore” fans don’t have a meaningful grasp of the personnel and roster rules that govern the sport they’re so interested in.
Take a breather, nobody’s attacking your fanhood.
People have too much time on their hands if they know all of the rules.
“People have too much time on their hands” is one of the most overused cliches.
So people have too much time on their hands if they’re knowledgeable about a hobby?
Great fit. Slide him into the 8th inning role behind Melancon. Proven formula.
This is a good move for the Giants. Worse case scenario he is deadline bait if the giants aren’t doing well
No, the worst case scenario is that he pitches horribly, doesn’t contribute to winning any games, and loses all trade value
Yah dyson and him as set up really good back end bullpen
well it looks then like the core bullpen becomes watson, smith, dyson, melancon which is pretty solid if they are all healthy.
Doesn’t look anything like that. He hasn’t signed anywhere yet.
hahaha… lmao
Don’t forget Strickland.
Do this and they might as well go after JDM.
can’t see that. would make it really hard to get back under tax if it goes south.
Perhaps a 1 year 1.5 mill with incentives
let’s be real… supply and demand. he is the only notable lefty left, and many teams could use a proven veteran in their bullpen. if i were him, i’d hold out for 2 years 10-15 mil.
Watson could be more of an addition than people think. The Giants seem to be very conscious of their pitching liabilities and are taking precautions in case a guy like Strickland can’t hold his own. I’m loving what the Giants are doing, let’s hope it translates into a better team. The only way to go is up.
This guy is a really good set-up guy. Same can’t be said when he was a closer.
Him before Melancon, worked in PIT
Hope the Giants can make this happen and stay under the tax line. I have little faith in Osich or Okert anymore, and how effective Smith will be after surgery is an unknown.
Okert isn’t bad, Osich is unreliable – that guy is amazing one night and then gives up like 5 runs the next.
I don’t understand why the Giants were so scared to go over the luxury tax line when they still have huge weaknesses in the rotation. They should go after Cobb or Lynn.
it is to try to stay under for next years market when they can spend larger.. If they don’t stay under the tax I would be surprised to see them in in harper or kershaw or any other big names next year. The rotation is strong if everyone is heathy in the 1-2-3, it is the last 2 spots that are questionable .
But they’re so close to the line right now and would go over with a Tony Watson signing. If they’re as good as they think they’re, they will probably add more money at the trade deadline.
Besides financial penalties (which is not a serious concern), they would lose two draft picks next year. THAT is what they are trying to avoid.
Consider the possibility that the payroll numbers used internally by MLB might not be completely the same as the estimates that come from the outside.
They are not in for Harper, and if they get Kershaw, the whole of LAD front room staff would commit suicide
Because they could spend 100 mil this season and still not be as good as the dodgers. When you already have several crappy 18 mil plus platers the fix isn’t just sign more of them lol.
and yet they have won it all 3 times with crappy old players while the dodgers were so good… hmmm…. weird no?
I’m glad the A’s got butcher and not Watson
I wonder if the league would allow something like a 2yr/2m deal with a 12m player option or a vesting option after, say, 80 appearances.
The league probably would, but why would Watson take that?
in a structure like that the money would all be considered guaranteed. It’s written that way so teams can’t skirt the rules.
ARTICLE XXIII—Competitive Balance Tax – E. Determination of Salary – (5) Option Contracts – (ii) Page 119-120. CBA link
link to mlbplayers.com
Should’ve been signed by Astros already, makes too much sense
I guess taking someone else’s idea and using it as your username also made too much sense.
I’d like to see the Phillies pull this off. I have no confidence in Milner as the 2nd lefty.
Morgan as the 1st,Milner the 2nd,and no real depth beyond them. Next in line would probably be DeNato or switching Leibrandt from starter to the pen.
…and as optimistic as I can be, I still don’t have a lot of faith in Morgan going forward. He had a decent second half and people are somehow forgetting about his entire career of mediocre ball and demotions to AAA prior to his recent strong half. I know Milner hasn’t had much chance to prove himself yet, but I’d roll the dice on finding out Milner’s ceiling rather than depending on Morgan to continue a small sample size of success.
Wouldn’t mind the Mets to add a piece like Watson to the pen. But I’d rather another starter.
I dont know how I feel about the Phillies as a fit. I know he’s lefty but Milner was not bad as a second lefty last year. I expect more than a 2.01 ERA, but I’d rather pay $545k for a 4.30 than probably $8m for a 3.30.
Watson has been consistent throughout his career, when most relievers are up and down,year to year. And he’s closed and has playoff experience. Phillies could definitely use that from the left side in the pen. If Morgan and/or Milner don’t pick up where they were last year, there’s not much to fall back on beyond them.
The Phillies have a payroll budget of around $175 million and, as of now, look to be about $65 million this year and $75 million next year. Spending $8 million won’t impact the team at all. They have made over market deals with Neshak and Hunter. No reason not to do the same here.
The phillies will be going after Machado or Donaldson next year, plus harper. They will be a sleeping giant next season.
Good pitcher, but gets slapped by right handed hitters
It’s hard to say why this is even a story?
Perhaps Tony Watson is getting close to signing with someone?
From the quote and the list below it could be many many teams?
Wish the writers would wait until a deal appears more tangible..
You could write this same story about many free agents.
Why just on Tony Watson?
“San Francisco isn’t the only team in the mix, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, who tweets that the Phillies, Red Sox, and unstated other teams are also still involved.”
If I had to “guess”, I’d say the Red Sox are in the best position to land Tony Watson as they have only added Moreland in this off season and a LRP is a priority for them.
Possibly because this is a site for rumors?
Watson would be a good pickup, but the threat of losing draft picks from going over the luxury threshold yet again would be a deal breaker. I don’t think they care about the financial penalties as much as losing two draft picks when they are trying to rebuild while remaining competitive (have their cake and eat it too).
According to Cot’s the Red Sox are “already” $8+M over the Luxury Tax Threshold so I’m not sure why this would be a deterrent as, if I understand what you are saying correctly, the Red Sox have already given up draft picks because of exceeding the Luxury Tax?
But please enlighten me?
I thought exceeding the Luxury Tax was only a “financial” fine and not a draft pick fine? Am I wrong?
Unless, of course, you were referring to another team.
But it appears you commented on my comment about the Red Sox?
I’m referring to the Giants having exceeded the threshold enough times that a loss of draft picks kicks in next year.
Can you please explain that?
The rule for 2018, as I read it (see below), states that only a team that is $40M+ over the Luxury Tax Threshold forfeits a draft pick.
Where do you get the “enough times” as part of the rule?
I’m not criticizing you I’m just trying to get a better understanding of how the rule works.
I’m not seeing what you are saying in the chapter and verse of the MLB rule (see the rule below).
m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balanc…
.
No problem, George. I probably got it wrong, but up until I saw a reply above, I was under the impression that upon a 3rd or 4th year consecutive exceeding the threshold moved a team back in the draft 10 places. This is what the Giant’s fear as they attempt to rebuild while remaining competitive.
According to the reply above:
A team that spends above $237M will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots.
The tax rates start at 20% for first-time offenders, 30% for second offenders and 50% for third-time offenders, according to the Associated Press.
The new rule could be a significant deterrent to teams hoping to be among baseball’s biggest spenders, since teams are generally quite protective of early-round draft picks. A slide of 10 spots is significant.
There will be subtle changes to free agency, however, in that players will be virtually unrestricted. Teams will no longer forfeit a first-round draft pick when signing free agents. If a team is under the luxury tax, it would lose a third-round draft pick when signing a player who rejects the qualifying offer. If a team is over the tax, it would lose a second- and fifth-round pick and $1 million in international bonus money.
“Here’s the rule per MLB.com:
m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balanc…
Competitive Balance Tax
Definition
Each year, clubs that exceed a predetermined payroll threshold are subject to a Competitive Balance Tax — which is commonly referred to as a “luxury tax.” Those who carry payrolls above that threshold are taxed on each dollar above the threshold, with the tax rate increasing based on the number of consecutive years a club has exceeded the threshold.
The threshold was $189 million from 2014-16, but the following increases were put in place per the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement:
2017: $195 million*
2018: $197 million
2019: $206 million
2020: $208 million
2021: $210 million
*For 2017 only, clubs that exceed the threshold shall pay the average between what their luxury tax would be under the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement rules and what it would have been per the previous CBA.
A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).
Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.”
So the Red Sox aren’t over the Luxury Tax by $40+M and there is only a financial penalty, as I read the rule.
Please respond if I have this incorrectly?
What did Sergio Romo get from Rays this offseason? That’s going to be what Watson will get, almost to the exact same years and dollar amount. Their age and stats are very similar. Watson is a lefty specialist and Romo similarity is much better against righties.
Here’s what Sergio Romo got from the Rays:
“The Rays have agreed to terms on a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Sergio Romo, reports Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). He can earn up to $2.75MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter link), though the amount guaranteed remains unclear.”
Not sure what the word “unclear” means …. incentives maybe?
Tony Watson got $5+M in 2017. Trade Rumors projects him to get 2/$12M.
My guess is the the Red Sox offer Tony Watson 3/$14M.
So Romo can earn “up to” $2.75 million. That means that is that max, if he hits all his incentives, His guarenteed money will be less than 2.75 million. That is unfortunate to Tony Watson’s market. I’d be surprised if a team gives him more than 3 million guaranteed.
That may be so.
We’ll have to see.
Watson is a LRP which has “specialty value”.
Romo had so arm trouble a year or so ago, as I recall.
That could be why MLB Trade Rumors projects Watson to get 2/$12M?
Watson got over $5+M in 2017.
Maybe 3/$10M may work?
But we’re quibbling over small potatoes.
Considering JDMartinez started out wanting $200M and now he’s down to $100M (per today’s “rumors” …. lol)
If you want to call them that?
With the Phillies rotation as it stands today, it seems they are building a bullpen to take over from the 6th inning on… So Watson makes sense for the Phillies, even if they still add a starter.
Arrieta would make perfect sense for them right now, Add Arrieta to go with Nola • Eickhoff • Velazquez • Pivetta • Lively • Thompson . I have them getting Machado next year
dunno, man….numbers are trending down in every major pitching category of importance. just because the phillies have 100+ million to easily throw at him, does that mean they should? I dont think so. He isn’t the guy to really push them forward in any significant way.