The Blue Jays are showing “continued interest” in free-agent righty Andrew Cashner, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, though he’s one of several starters they’re eyeing. The Jays have a need for a fifth starter to round out their rotation, and Morosi suggests that they’re hoping to fill that vacancy on a one-year deal. It’s not a surprise to see the Jays (or any team, for that matter) preferring a one-year term on the free-agent market, but Cashner reportedly entered the offseason in hopes of securing a three-year pact.
It’s possible that the crawling pace of the offseason has lessened his demands to an extent, but there’s been no indication that Cashner is willing to jump on a one-year offer to date. The 31-year-old made 28 starts for the Rangers last season and posted a 3.40 ERA, albeit one that looks to be largely smoke and mirrors. Cashner’s 4.64 K/9 rate was the second-lowest in the Majors, and his 3.46 BB/9 rate was worse than the league average. Overall, his K%-BB% of just 3.1 percent was the worst of any qualified pitcher in baseball, leading fielding-independent metrics like xFIP (5.30) and SIERA (5.52) to paint an unflattering picture of his work.
The said, Cashner’s fastball averaged better than 93 mph, his 48.6 percent ground-ball rate was comfortably above the league average, and he demonstrated the home-run suppression skills he’s shown for much of his career despite a move to a hitter-friendly setting in Arlington (0.81 HR/9). Cashner did rely less on his four-seam fastball with the Ranges than he ever has in previous seasons, instead favoring more cutters/sinkers. Some clubs may believe that altering that pitch selection a bit could restore some his strikeout prowess.
The Blue Jays currently project to have Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada in the top four spots of their rotation. Joe Biagini was their most frequent fifth starter in 2017, though he struggled in a move to the rotation after enjoying success as a reliever in his 2016 rookie season, when he was a Rule 5 pick. Prospect Ryan Borucki is close to big league ready and could conceivably step into the mix, though it stands to reason that the Jays would prefer to ease him into a big league job rather than throw him directly into the fire in the season’s first couple of weeks (without much of a veteran fallback option in place, should he struggle).
More garbage
I wouldn’t call him garbage… He’s successful, but peripheral stats are his worst nightmare.
3.40 ERA. but…. 4.61 FIP and 5.30 xFIP.
166.2 IP, he had 64BB and 86 SO
Or was the commenter referring to the non-news, news as garbage? Showing interest doesn’t really mean all that much.
I thought that too. Either way if he did, he won’t be the first, and he didn’t think that there’ll be others.
Cashner does the job, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen advanced stats completely take away this much from ERA before.
Even simple stats like 86SO, 64BB in 166.2IP alarm me
Wouldn’t mind an innings eater to come to Milwaukee
“Overall, his K%-BB% of just 3.1 percent was the worst of any qualified pitcher in baseball . . . “
Not quoting you here, xabial—this is from the above piece. I’ve never seen that stat, K%-BB%, before. Not sure how it’s calculated, where to find it nor what it means. Any ideas?
No worries. After three people reply to each other, I can’t tell who’s replying to whom.
Here’s the link to K%-BB% leaders. I use Fangraphs to find almost every stat.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&…
Here’s the announcement K%-BB% was added to their pitchers stats sections, including leaderboards. Reading the comment section of this announcement, could provide you with some additional context.
fangraphs.com/blogs/new-stats-k-bb/
Hope this helps.
“After three people reply to each other, I can’t tell who’s replying to whom.”
That’s why I copy/paste what I’m responding to. Makes it clear who I’m talking to and which point in particular I wish to discuss/argue.
“Hope this helps.”
It does, thx. Not too old to learn some new tricks.
feeling is mutual
Were gonna hand onto Donaldson because we think we can compete against Boston and NY this year. We couldn’t win with Donaldson, EE, Bautista, Cabrera, Tulo, and David Price but I think we have a shot with Cashner…That front office needs to do the fans a favor and trade Donaldson for prospects now.
I couldn’t agree more. This is a lesser team, and Cashner would be a stop-gap acquisition. Best I can see is the Jays are out of it at the deadline, Cashner has a serviceable first half enabling them to flip him then. I know TOR only wants him on a 1-year deal, but I heard a couple months ago BAL was interested. Apparently they’ve yet to make an offer.
I remember that mlbtr thread. It also reported BAL was interested in Jason Vargas as well.
Redfeather and Solaris, I totally agree. When the Jays did the stop gap thing last year too, it was obvious that the window to win had closed. They are doing the stop-gap thing for money-to keep people interested, in the seats, eyeballs on the tube so the Rogers CEO can sell the Jays at top dollar.
Looking at Shapiro’s cleveland building past, it will be at least 5 more years before the Jays are really competative again. Unless of course they royally blow it up now and trade major league pieces for elite near ready propsects like Cashman did.
Slowest offseason ever… someone make a move
No way 94 was slower
Lmao – slick!
Why?
This is playing out like a game of chess, but everyone but like 5, 6 teams are just moving their pawns
how can a team tell it’s fan base it plans to compete and fill a potential roster spot with Cashner. the guys numbers scream garbage.
his results were fine. lets you believe what you want to believe.
His results were fine once in the 8 major league seasons he’s played. His peripherals scream lucky though. 4.61 FIP (an upgrade over 2015!) is not worth whatever they are going to be paying him
Cashner’s success was stronger last year so why would another team want to go back to what he had done before?
ERA is real, xFIP is a guess.
actually, ERA can be deceiving and FIP is a pretty good measure of true talent
When you’re measuring against a pitcher who is doing what he did before. Cashner has made a radical change in how he gets batters out.
FIP has nothing to do with Past success/failures. He HAS made a radical change on how he’s getting people out….he’s not doing it nearly as well/often as he used to
I would rather see Biagini in there than Cashner. Surely we can do better with the 10-12 million left to spend.
Hopefully they pivot to Garcia
There is of course some questions with Garcia but I think he is one of the best value free agent pitchers left. A veteran lefty with monster ground ball percentages reportedly not looking for ridiculous contract.
Sounds like he fits the mold that the jays are looking for better than Cashner.
I could see Cashner striking a 1-2 year deal. At 31 he could still get two decent contracts. Sign a one year at high value to prove the doubters wrong then try again next winter
Toronto is no place for a pitcher to rebuild his value.
I hear that Colin McHugh is available from the Astros. He would be better.
McHugh may be available, but he’s not going to come cheap. Houston has no real glaring holes to fill and can afford to just put him in the pen and then have him available when the inevitable starter injuries arise.
Don’t see anybody parting with any significant assets for a guy like Mchugh with all the free agents available. Put McCullers on the table and they can get assets. But why would they want to? They have no holes on their big league club.
I don’t think The Astros would ask The Blue Jays for anything major. The Astros have enough extra starter depth with Peacock, Martes, Paulino, and even Devenski who can start in an emergency, that they really don’t need McHugh.
Would be cool for Solarte. I know he and Cashner were good friends when they played in San Diego together.
Cashner is a very risky signing for anyone.Those low strikeout totals should make any GM think that he’ll probably get knocked around in 2018.He’s a guy that most likely should have an ERA near or over 5.00 this season.
NO, hes a guy that should have had an ERA near 5.00 last season, but didnt. Next season is next season. Maybe he’ll be the guy with the good periferals, like Chatwood, but pitches worse than the numbers. Which would you rather have had last year?
Chatwood’s peripherals are worse than his actual numbers
My bad. But you know what I mean.
What starting pitcher has ever been successful – in the modern era – with that kind of K rate?
One with excellent control, nerves of steel and carries a Gold Glove comes to mind:
Mark Buehrle! Never forget this beauty!
Buehrle, Mussina, Niekro, Gavine, Palmer, and Maddux would be the biggest ones, But more recently; Jake Westborok, Pavano, Joe Saunders, Livan Hernandez, Arroyo, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe, Jason Marquis, Matt Harrison, Fister, Josh Tomlin, John Danks, Jeremy Hellickson, Nova, Dickey, Wakefield, Tillman, Fulmer, Pettite, & Weaver all have a lower k/9 rate than Cashner since 2010
FIP Put him at a 4.61, so yea, he’s a guy to be weary of.
ERA was 3.40, so he’s a guy that actually produced. His team had fielders, like most teams. when they start playing w/o them, I will put more weight on FIP.
And the year prior he pitched merely 130 innings with a 5.25 ERA (4.85 FIP tho, so on the opposite side of the luck coin)
Good/bad luck has a way of working itself out if given enough playing time. For his career, Cashner now sits with a 5.00 ERA, 4.95 FIP after last year …so, yeah…
crud, transferred over the clearly wrong career numbers in last line. Should be 3.80 ERA, 3.99 FIP for his career
5.00/4.95 is his projected 2018 numbers from the projection sites
And those projection sites are always spot on!
Infinitely more accurate than fans with wishful thinking
Infinitely? This is approaching the limit of exaggeration!
No, just please, no.
Cashner is kind of the exact type of guy that should not be signed to a multi-year fairly big contract.
A – wrong side of 30
B – most recent stats quite deceiving
C – no history of repeatable success
D – never pitched even as many as 185 innings, and has been over 135 only 3 times
If a team (esp one that plays in a hitter park) signs him for 3 seasons and multi million, there is very good chance they would regret holding that contract even next year, let alone the one after.
So no way I would go over 1 year with maybe an option. Let him first prove last season wasn’t just previous bad luck correcting itself (as it appears) before handing out money to a guy over 30 who cant be relied upon to pitch many innings, doesn’t strike out anyone and walks guys at a high rate
I wouldn’t put much stock in what Morosi reports
He’s a groundball pitcher. I don’t think playing in a hitter’s park will hurt him too much.
So is Ubaldo Jimenez, and Baltimore assumed the same…
…in fact, Jimenez and Cashner probably line up pretty well, now that think about it.
I mean, Ubaldo was much more of a workhorse on the mound, struck out many more hitters, had a career track record of success and didn’t rely on luck fluctuations year to year to find said success …but outside that stuff, the pre-Balt Jimenez and the current Cashner are probably quite similar
It’s been a few years since Cashner has been handed the ball every 5th day with confidence. Even though he walked between the raindrops for the most part last year, I can’t imagine any manager not wondering what kinda results they’ll see from him from start to start.
Cashner’s era would go up at least a full point in the Rogers centre. This guy is not the solution to winning anything. A team with this guy on the roster is likely going nowhere in the playoffs.
If the Jays sign this guy, it confirms what I and others above have been saying, that the Jays real goal is not to win, but to appease the fans for money.
I ain’t buying that Kool-Aid.
Jimmertee…
Although you can occasionally ruffle some feathers on this site because of your style (which doesn’t bother me, btw) , you’re 100% right. They need a #1 and a #3, and +++ on offense/defense, including a major upgrade at the backup catcher spot (I liked Avilla for this but what do I know). As constructed, this team will be LUCKY to sniff .500. Season ticket holders beware!!! They couldn’t hang last year (even before the injuries, look it up) and are not an improved club… they will get torn down this year (in my opinion) but will wait until the deadline so the front office and the spoon-fed Toronto media can hype the hell out of this bunch… I’m not from Toronto, but at least they’ll have the Argo’s and the Soccer Club to watch…
Yah, agreed, thanks for the feedback. Cheers.
They’re definitely an improved club with the added infield and outfield depth. Improved enough to make the playoffs? Unlikely.
Where’s this available number 1 pitcher??!
What team wants to trade an ace if Vlad isn’t in the package??!
Why can’t the Jays make in-season trades like 2015??!
Where were all the Royals aces that year??!
Who cares about Argo’s or S Clubs??! ew!
Would you rather be cynical and right? Or optimistic and a fan??!
Someone’s gotta enjoy this delicious KoolAid!
It is actually getting tastier, if you can drink around the band-aids!!
I don’t think anyone will even notice when you guys hop back on the bandwagon!!!
Go Jays!!!!
And what is this: even before the injuries???
Travis and Martin missed Spring.
Osuna missed start of season.
Donaldson went down quite early.
Happ was down quite early.
Sanchez not far behind.
Travis was down again before long.
Tulo was down quite early too and again before long.
Martin was down again eventually.
What were you watching??!?!?!?
Looking at park factors, Rangers stadium is actually more hitter friendly than Toronto.
Even if his ERA goes up by a run from 3.40 he’s still a serviceable 5th starter. I don’t understand why everyone is rating him on a front of the rotation curve.
Maybe he could shave his beard to distract the hitters and get a few extra Ks. But in all seriousness, Jays have sucked since AA left. I really used to dread seeing Toronto on the schedule. They always seemed to kick their game up a notch when playing NYY for a good 4-5 years until last year.
AA knows how to both build and to go for the win. It appears that all Shapiro and Atkins know how to build a farm system. – Only way Cleveland gets to the recent WS is the current regime cleans up Shapiro’s mess of Swisher and Bourne and and acquires Miller and other core assets.
Was thinking the same thing Jimmertee in regards to Shapiro and Atkins. Toronto does feel like Cleveland redux atm. I don’t know if I can fault them for signing Swish at the time. He had been pretty good with the Yanks and a fan favorite. Was upset with Cash not resigning him then, though in hindsight it was a great non signing by him. I totally didn’t get the Bourne signing though by Cleveland.
Cashman is not perfect, but he is the closet thing to Pat Gillick there is these days in MLB with exception of Epstein.A genius.
The “Only way”?? You are ignoring way too much so that this fits your narrative.
Locking up some stud players to team friendly contracts didn’t help? Building up a system that was able to churn out some stars didn’t help? Making messes that are so easy to clean up didn’t help?
AA did a great job of building up the cupboard and then cleaning out to go for a run. He would have done the same again, no doubt in my mind. But Shapiro/Atkins are doing the same right now, and they’ve managed to accelerate the process a great deal so far. They weren’t left with a lot of flexibility.
Get ready to see the next batch of stars have their arbitration years bought out. And a slow start this year leads to trades of Donaldson, Stroman, Osuna, Pillar, Sanchez, Happ, Estrada. Lots of chips left to work with but all due raises or upcoming FA so why hold on in a slow start. The upcoming flexibility s the most exciting part. Prospects for adding or some chips for trading away to get more prospects. Choose own adventure style! Get hyped.
Cashners control was only an issue early in his season. When he eased into it and got his command, he was very dominant for a long stretch. IMO there’s nothing wrong with just missing barrels instead of missing bats. Quick outs. Which he did well
How accurate is FIP in predicting ERA? I am always seeing how last years numbers show a discrepancy. I seldom see where they are virtually the same.
Very accurate
…which is why you can see even a Ground Ball pitcher like Cashner see his career FIP be within 20 points of his ERA.
It’s all about sample sizes. Over enough PAs it stabilises – and it’s incredibly accurate. Year to year the deviation between ERA and FIP is minimal across the league. For Andrew Cashner – career ERA 3.80, career FIP 3.99 – which is an example of how much a wild swing in luck last year was.
While I doubt he will accept it as it doesn’t fit what he clearly desires, I’ll quickly show just how “extremely accurate” it is:
AL as whole:
2013 – 3.99 ERA, 3.97 FIP
2014 – 3.82 ERA, 3.79 FIP
2015 – 4.01 ERA, 4.04 FIP
2016 – 4.21 ERA, 4.25 FIP
2017 – 4.38 ERA, 4.39 FIP
NL as whole:
2013 – 3.74 ERA, 3.77 FIP
2014 – 3.66 ERA, 3.69 FIP
2015 – 3.91 ERA, 3.88 FIP
2016 – 4.17 ERA, 4.16 FIP
2017 – 4.34 ERA, 4.32 FIP
There is a reason for that, of course – but that reason is also why it is so great at predicting players individual outputs
…and why there are still people out there who act like it is meaningless and can just be dismissed to try to make an argument for what they personally want to believe, I will never know.
I wouldnt sign Cashner. I just dont see him as being consistent. I will give you that the aggregate looks to balance between FIP and ERA. So why are there so many discrepancies with individuals? Please dont say luck. Is there a type of pitcher that tends to out perform FIP? Is there a type that under performs? Why is it that if there is a discrepancy, ERA is supposed to approach FIP in the future, and not FIP will move toward ERA. Could it be the pitcher is learning to pitch? When you cant explain the individual discrepancy, it causes me to question it. The aggregate just tells me it under predicts as often as it over predicts.
Seeing that you clearly know so little about FIP, and knowing you are so adamantly closed minded to the entire idea to start, it would be a near impossible and pointless task to even begin to explain it (but I’ll still fly thru some points regardless)
First thing tho, I would suggest you learn what the letters actually stand for – even that simple step will work as miles towards explaining to you why it “under predicts as often as it over predicts.”
Then why does FIP not move towards ERA, and only ERA moves towards FIP? If you knew anything about FIP, you would know it is based off a centuries worth of rather remarkably consistent data factored against the current level of play and the specific pitchers ability shown, with all of it giving a fantastic indication of what will happen. Meanwhile, ERA is based off fewer than 30 games (in the case of starters) against a few random select teams under random select conditions in any given season. Should be pretty easy to figure out why knowing that.
And whether you like it or not, there just isn’t enough sample size any given year to eliminate situational to even pure, dumb luck affecting things sometimes to dramatic levels. That’s why yeah, taking a larger sample body will give you a better look at things. Case in point:
4.38 FIP, 4.26 ERA – Cashner the last 3 seasons
And yes, there are some pitchers who have some minimal control over their variance – but A) it is generally truly minimal B) there is always a good, logical reason for it.
There is no glaring reason for Cashners variance, and even with a reason for some variance, the insane 1.20 point difference is comically out of whack.
Reality is, after posting back to back FIPs of 4.84 and 4.61 in 2016-17, it is very safe to assume Cashner will have an ERA in the range of 4.70 or higher (with projection sites even predicting in the 5.00 range) …that is the ability level he has shown back to back seasons, and assuming he plays in a luck-neutral, defense-neutral situation in 2018, that ability level is how he should be expected to produce.
Because ultimately that is what FIP is – ability level. It tells you what should be expected based of what he himself controls. And when you can so accurately factor ability levels of players, ignoring the ability level to instead go by your hopes is kind of insanity.
Good stuff!
There will always be outliers.
I would be very interested to see how it varies based on experience/age.
But I would expect that any improvement made in ERA from learning to pitch better, would also line up with improvement in FIP.
Biggest reason for discrepancy for me is the defense behind the pitcher. If I have Adrian Beltre playing 3B behind me, I’ll probably have a better ERA than when he is injured, even though I pitch the same. If I get traded to the Twins with Buxton playing CF behind me, from pretty much any team that would improve my ERA, even though I pitch the same.
*I know errors behind pitcher don’t effect ERA, but a highlight play vs a hit makes a huge difference!*
I’d expect guys with deceptive deliveries and high spin rates that induce weak contact would appear to have better ‘luck’ than most pitchers. I’d expect guys that can really dial in their focus levels would also appear to have better ‘luck’. Some guys just can’t pitch from the stretch. HR/BB/E will cause them to fall apart. Other guys are unflappable. I’d expect a pitcher that can field his position well would also appear to have better ‘luck’. A lot of variables that make it worthwhile to drill deeper into each individual case, but for ease, using FIP is a great predictor and way to judge ability most accurately! In my opinion.
This wouldn’t be the worst signing ever, assuming it is for one year and under $10 M.
Agree
How about a swap with the Braves with the Blue Jays getting Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino, Braves’ top starter and reliever, Teheran is a top 25 MLB starter with a team friendly contract 2/20 with an option and the team’s closer with 10.9K/9. Toronto gets two proven MLB pitching stalwarts ready now for 2-60 (A) and 2-50 (B) prospects.