After an extended run at or near the top of the American League Central, the Royals have watched much of their vaunted core hit the open market. What remains in Kansas City, beyond the everlasting title of 2015 World Series champions, is a collection of fairly expensive veterans and a larger group of unproven young assets. The Royals appear destined for a rebuild, joining their AL Central brethren in Detroit and on the south side of Chicago in that regard.
While there aren’t all that many top-shelf trade chips, GM Dayton Moore and his staff do have some commodities that they can market to other clubs as an alternative to the stagnant free-agent market.
[Related: Kansas City Royals depth chart and Royals payroll outlook]
One-Year Rentals
Kelvin Herrera, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM): Herrera is coming off the worst season of his career, having struggled to a 4.25 ERA as he watched his K/9 (8.5), BB/9 (3.0) and HR/9 (1.37) all trend in the wrong direction. That said, Herrera’s average fastball checked in at 97.5 mph, tying him for 10th among all qualified relievers in the game. His 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate and 34 percent chase rate on pitches out of the zone were both down from recent seasons but comfortably above the league average. He’s still just 28 years old, as well.
Joakim Soria, RHRP ($10MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Unlike Herrera, Soria saw virtually all of his rate stats improve in 2017. While his 3.70 ERA looks fairly pedestrian, his 2.23 FIP and 3.16 SIERA are more indicative of the success he enjoyed as his K/9 (10.3), BB/9 (3.2), HR/9 (0.16), ground-ball rate (54.8 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.2 percent) all looked better than they did in a lackluster 2016 season. Soria will turn 34 in May, and he’s not cheap at $10MM, but he can help the back of a contender’s bullpen.
Jason Hammel, SP ($11MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Hammel is 35 years old and registered an ERA north of 5.00 last year, but his 4.37 FIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are all at least somewhat encouraging. He’s made at least 29 starts in each of the past four seasons, so a team looking for durable innings in the fifth slot of its rotation could do worse than lining up a deal for Hammel. It shouldn’t require much more than simply picking up the tab on his $11MM remaining salary.
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF/DH ($8.25MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Moss, 34, saw his production crater in 2017. The slugger hit just .207/.279/.428 and struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances, though he did connect on 22 homers and walk at a solid 9.2 percent clip. Still, his struggles in ’17 make him a difficult piece to move right now — especially in a market that is once again rife with first basemen who come with longstanding platoon issues. If he rebounds in the first half, Kansas City shouldn’t have much trouble dealing him to a contender in need of a bench bat come July.
Two Years of Control
Brandon Maurer, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $3.8MM): Maurer, 27, posted a sky-high 6.52 ERA last year, continuing a trend of delivering questionable bottom-line numbers despite more promising underlying metrics. Maurer averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and racked up a strikeout per inning with solid control. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a bit high but not extraordinarily so — especially when considering the leaguewide uptick in long balls. But, Maurer stranded just 61.1 percent of the baserunners he allowed, and his career 64.9 percent mark in that category is demonstrably worse than the league average.
Longer-Term Assets
Danny Duffy, SP ($60MM through 2021): One of Kansas City’s most marketable assets, Duffy would be an upgrade for any rotation in the league. The 29-year-old has never crossed the 180-inning threshold in the Majors due to previous injuries and a stint in the K.C. bullpen, but he’s been very good since moving to the rotation on a full-time basis.
Over a span of 50 starts dating back to May 15, 2016, Duffy has worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9 and a 37.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s signed affordably for another four years, and his contract only runs through his age-32 campaign, so interested parties needn’t worry about signing up for too many decline years. He’s not a Jose Quintana or Chris Archer style bargain, but Duffy should command a fairly substantial return in a trade.
Salvador Perez, C ($43.5MM through 2021): The notion of trading Perez likely causes most Kansas City fans to recoil, as the beloved backstop has emerged as one of the faces of the franchise. Few teams are actively looking for a new starting catcher, though Perez would be the type of player that clubs would make other moves to accommodate. That said, the Royals probably relish the notion of keeping Perez on hand to work with a wave of inexperienced young arms, and a trade doesn’t seem especially likely even if they do take off on a large-scale rebuild.
Whit Merrifield, 2B (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Merrifield has enough club control remaining that there’s no urgency to move him, as he could very well be a part of the next contending Royals roster. The late bloomer broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash in 2017 and led the AL with 34 stolen bases. He’ll turn 29 this month, though, so the Royals could be wary that he’ll be entering a decline once they’re closer to contending again. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Royals are willing to listen to offers on Merrifield.
Scott Alexander, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Rosenthal also noted that Alexander could potentially be had even though he, too, has five years of club control remaining. Alexander, 28, turned in an excellent 2.48 ERA in 69 innings last season, averaging 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 along the way. Lefties hit .240/.313/.317 against him, while righties mustered just a .250/.333/.347 line.
Ryan Buchter, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2021): Buchter’s strikeout rate plummeted following a trade from the Royals to the Padres, as he began to throw fewer four-seamers and curveballs while substantially increasing his use of a cut fastball. The 30-year-old Buchter averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in a season and a half with the Padres, albeit with shaky control and extreme fly-ball tendencies. He’s been terrific against both lefties (.160/.255/.306) and righties (.179/.284/.339) to this point in his MLB career.
Jorge Soler, OF/DH ($12MM through 2020, may opt into arbitration once eligible): Acquired from the Cubs last offseason, Soler didn’t seize the limited opportunity he has in Kansas City last year. In 110 plate appearances, he batted just .144/.245/.258 with a pair of homers. However, Soler raked at a .267/.388/.564 clip in the minors, leaving some room for optimism that the former top prospect can still realize some of his potential at the big league level. There’s little reason for the Royals to sell low on him, given his affordable nature and relative youth (26 in February).
Salary Dump Candidates
Ian Kennedy ($49MM through 2020), Alex Gordon ($44MM through 2019, including buyout of 2020 mutual option)
Moving either Kennedy or Gordon would be a tall order and would almost certainly require the Royals to take on a similarly undesirable contract in exchange. Kennedy remains a durable source of innings — he’s made at least 30 starts in each of the past eight seasons — but his penchant for giving up home runs expanded to new heights in 2017 (1.99 HR/9, 5.38 ERA). Finding a taker for Gordon’s contract would be difficult enough in and of itself, but the Royals would also be wrestling with the notion of dumping the contract of a player that has long served as the face of the franchise. And, as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, the past five with the same team), he has full no-trade protection.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Steve just a heads up buddy, Whit is a second baseman not a catcher.
So much for a typo-free 2018!
Thanks — much appreciated.
Merrifield is a catcher?
The C stands for Cool Guy.
Package Hammel and Kennedy for a top prospect.
What?
No one would give up a top prospect for a total of $29 million for 2 4th/5th starters.
Yeah definitely two #5’s and the article clearly states that 1) Hammel can be had for basically nothing and 2) Trading Kennedy would need to bring back another undesirable contract. A prospect with any upside would be an overpay for those two. Top Prospect c’mon man
Dayton Moore dreams of a team taking Kennedy in a trade, but the impossible dream is for a team to take Kennedy AND Hammel in a deal for anything more than a Port-a-John
Um…lol Yeah they’d have to add Whit, Duffy or Salvy with those two AND take on half their remaining salaries to make that trade lol
Man, if I were a Royals’ fan, that would just wreck my 2018. What a dump.
I’m a Royals fan and it bums me out. I hope they keep Merrifield though.
Theo outsmarted the Royals getting Wade Davis from them for Jorge. Now they will get a 2018 draft pick also for Davis leaving them.
Yeah, that little bugger robbed me blind. Even my kids needle me about Theo.
Theo didn’t “outsmart” the Royal’s. Soler could very well play 2 or 3 more seasons and hit 25-30 HR’s per season while playing decent RF defense. Wade was coming off injury, and is now a Rockie. Don’t see how that was an outsmart. But whatever.
Meh. One year of Wade Davis that ended before the WS, and a 3rd round draft pick. If Soler picks up at all (and his Minor League stats would make him a top flight prospect were he still a prospect) the Royals can still win that one.
Try to move some of the bullpen pieces now (Soria, Bucther, Maurer) and wait for everything else during the season. I really don’t see a reason to trade Perez but anybody else can be had.
If the Brave’s offer up Acuna, Perez can probably be had, anything short of that and he probably can’t.
There’s no way Pérez is worth the top prospect in the game. He’ll bring back a good package, but Acuna shouldn’t be apart of it
LOL!! I don’t see the R’s getting rid of Salvy. I don’t see Slavy wanting to leave either. He’s loved by all KC fans and loves KC fans. Even with his contract backloaded, it’s still a bargain overall for the fella.
Things don’t look great for the Royals currently. Unless Glass chooses to pour unprecedented amounts of money into the organization it could easily be several seasons before they are relevant again.
This one made me chuckle. You have never met David have you southi?
Yes I actually have, twice in fact. It was years ago and no I absolutely do NOT expect Glass to pour unprecedented amounts of money into the payroll. It would be totally out of character for him.
I FULLY expect that the royals organization is entering a long down period. (Sorry I wasn’t clear in my first post).
Then you know how tight he is. JJ and I joke about it all the time. JJ says you couldn’t pull a toothpick out of David’s ass with a tractor. That cracked me up.
“Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore” are what some Royals players are going to be saying pretty soon.
They were never in Kansas
Well, this is new to me. Why is the city called Kansas City then? I looked it up, looks like it is in Missouri, why would you name a Missouri city Kansas City? They might as well rename St. Louis, Illinois City then! wow!
It’s a conspiracy against you.
I’m amazed you’ve made it this far in life. Darwin was a big fat liar!
Well, my knowledge of the location of Kansas City hasn’t been crucial for my survival, at least up to this point in my life.
Illinoise has East St.Louis. You must be proud…
Well, this is really gonna blow your mind but there is both a Kansas City Kansas and a Kansas City Missouri.. It is a border city shared by the two.. The railroad decided to go through Kansas City Missouri and that brought lots of growth.. Since then the Missouri side has had several times the population and is the larger of the two.. It has the sports teams, the airport and is pretty much known as the Kansas City throughout the world..
I wonder how hard it would hit him to know there is a New York, TX and Texas NY, Delaware OH, Virginia, MN, Maine WI, New Mexico MD…..it must be the devils work.
Actually, there is a Kansas City, Kansas! KC is a shared city between 2 states! Something to do with boundaries a long time ago!
Would like to see the Yankees trade for Merrifield.
I will say I’m honestly not sure what he’d cost.
Ditto for the Brewers. Though if they package him with Duffy, they’d get a pretty nice haul. Maybe Brett Phillips, Luis Ortiz and a couple lower guys like Nottingham/Pennington/Supak. Or Stearns might want to include Villar to avoid a logjam at 2B.
Not really sure why the Royals would want Villar. He doesn’t serve a purpose for a rebuilding team.
I’m not sure about Duffy.
If he were to come in a package I’d consider Adams, Estrada, McKinney, Austin
Sure he does. Even rebuilding teams need stopgaps to actually play at the major league level. At the rate we are going, one day teams might just stop pretending and just not play games at all for a few years while they rebuild, but for now they still have to put an ML team on the field.
Oh yeah I’m not sure any team wants Villar. Though he could be at least decent if his results are somewhere between his last two years.
sure they need stop gaps but not from the team they are making a trade for prospects for
stop gaps come from any other place. The 7/11, Long Island Ducks, scrap heap, Japan.
The Yankees have several good 2nd base prospects. What they seem to be lacking lately (and it’s a bit shocking to me) is veteran leadership.. Their entire stable of position players are in their mid 20’s except for Gardner and Ellsbury.. They need a solid veteran on a short term contract like Martin Prado, signing a one year deal with Chase Utley, or signing Todd Frazier and making Andujar available in trades.. Although Merrifield is solid the prospect cost will probably be more than what the Yankees would be comfortable parting with and he won’t help with their lack of a veteran presence..
Bigcubsfan.. we were never in Kansas, the stadium is in Missouri you clown
Fierce slam!
Toto, we are in Kansas City again, oh no Toto ! What ever will we do?…..Good idea Toto, we will become Jayhawks fans again for the next 20 years, just like last time!
What’s the source of Gordon’s decline over the last two seasons?
General baseball knowledge?
Father Time
How many players fall off a cliff at age 32 without some specific reason? This was intended as a serious question. It appears nobody is able to supply a serious answer.
He signed a big contract!
I didn’t realize there was a team in worse shape than Miami.
Miami still holds that distinction. Miami and Kansas City both (at the moment) have pretty uninspiring rosters. I don’t know how either team’s farm systems currently rank so that’s a factor here. But the big reason why Miami is in worse shape is because the new ownership has already lost the fan base which will take some time to build up again. On the other hand, and in my opinion, Royals’ fans had to know that it was either blow it all up last year or go for it one more time with their core. So while Royals’ fans might not be thrilled about the state of the roster and the short-term outlook, they likely aren’t being blindsided by ownership/management here.
The royals took around 30 years like the pirates for a small window and now it’s gone. Hopefully they can get back into the thick of things in the central at some point, they have good fans
Butcher was trade from the padres to the royals not the other way around
Success or struggle could indicate a good or poor pitching coach imo
Really wish we didn’t pay that much or that long for Soria. Does not have it anymore. I hope we can can Whit LONG term.
So with 60% of the AL Central in rebuild mode and the Twins not exactly a powerhouse, should we just give Cleveland the division title now? This has gotten ridiculous. One team in a division rebuilding for the future is understandable, but when you have over 50% of a division basically throwing in the towel before the season even starts, you have to ask yourself, what is the point of watching the season?
The NL east has 4 teams in rebuild mode which is worse than the AL central. The Indians will take some losses after this season too with miller and Allen hitting free agency
Yeah, but the NL East was extremely boring last year. The division race was basically over in May. Besides just because someone else does it too or does it more, doesn’t make it a good strategy or a sound business decision for MLB. If the White Sox finish their rebuild and basically swap spots with Cleveland, it doesn’t solve the problem. You need at least 3 of the 5 teams in a division playing to win AT ALL TIMES.
Right now we have about half the teams in the league in rebuild mode. All that says to me is that there are too many teams. If there are not enough quality players in their prime to support 80% of 30 teams, then contraction might be an idea worth looking into.
I don’t mind rebuilds for a season or two, but these 3-5 year rebuilds are basically spitting in the face of fans. Sure, young fans have plenty of time to wait for a winner, but what about others. My 82 year old grandfather has been a Reds fan his whole life. He has spent the last 3 years watching a very bad baseball team. It’s hard to explain to him why his team isn’t worried about winning this season or next season. He might not be around in 2021 when the Reds think they might decide to try again, so why should he care about them now?
hiflew……I am confused by the mindset. Do you believe a person should only be a fan of their chosen team when they are winning? Maybe ask your grandfather why he has stuck with the Reds through thick and thin to gain some perspective.
I don’ have as many years on me as your grandfather but I would bet I have been a Phillies fan longer than you have been alive. I have lived all over the country and remained a Phillies fan even when all I could do was read about them. Of course I have always wanted them to win but that is unrealistic. You take the bad with the good… “Why should he care about them now?…..it’s called being a fan.
I do agree with you about there not being enough talent but contraction will never happen, in anything close to the near future, just as a hard cap and non-guaranteed contracts will never happen.
No I don’t believe that. I have been a Rockies fan since 1993 (and a general baseball fan for many years prior to that) regardless of their record. I live nowhere near Colorado and have never even been there. I just liked the team from the start for some reason. The key with my fandom there is I don’t not believe they have EVER tanked from the beginning of a season. They have been bad. Sometimes very bad, but they always at least attempt to win.
If a team goes into a season with the mindset of losing, then they don’t deserve you as a fan. Selling off players at mid season when you are realistically out of it is not tanking, that is smartly building for next year. However, that mindset has changed from the Cubs famous “Wait til Next Year” to the current “our window should be open for three years in about four years.”
As far as my grandfather goes, he loves the Reds regardless of the outcome. But he is sad when they lose. He is not a fantasy player or someone that can dictate the roster of the team’s Gulf Coast affiliate. He just watches the Reds. It really bothers me to know going into a season that his front office is not giving the team the necessary pieces to even compete because they think 62 wins is better than 82 wins because they get to pick 15 spots earlier in the draft.
Maybe MLB is passing me by. It’s not a bad decision from a business mindset, but it sucks as a fan to know now that you won’t be cheering much for the next three years. Because for some fans, those three years might be their last.
I can entirely understand the lament of the fan whose team seems to be in a perpetual state of rebuilding, especially if that fan is older and has been following the team for decades. Far too many team owners are more than happy to take the fans’ money and give them very little in return. Fans should gripe about that or the owners will never have any reason to care. The problem isn’t the amount of talent, it’s the distribution of the talent.
You’re so right Cat! It’s called loyalty ! Through thick
and thin until the end! Cards will always be my team! I’ve lived all over the place
and when I went to other ballparks, I still wore my STL hat! LoL
Well hiflew we are worried that fans won’t see the point. That is why we are not going to trade Perez or Duffy. Our hope is that we can shore up the pitching and offense with a few desperate free agents, pretend we can contend, and then try to hang in the AL Central race through mid July. Not a great strategy but we need to sell tickets.
There shouldn’t even be any divisions. Top 5 teams in each league make the playoffs. Fix the schedule too say they all play the same amount. This way the Rays, Orioles and Jays don’t have an unfair disadvantage year in year out playing the Yankees and Redsox more times than anyone else in baseball.
In theory, your idea makes sense for a fantasy team. I don’t think it could work at all in practice though. If you get rid of the divisions and balance the schedule, you would have a logistical nightmare and create a lot more travel for teams. It sucks now for a fan of an east coast team when they travel out west for the week because the games don’t start until after 10PM, but it is just two weeks out of the season most years. With a balanced schedule, you would triple that every season. It just wouldn’t work unless you radically realigned the leagues and that would be much worse than the current set.
This is what I think the Royals should go with on offense, just a proposal. Assuming the big four don’t return.
C: Perez
1B: Hunter Dozier- While he isn’t Hosmer, he brings a lot of power and was one of the Royals best prospects. Considering where the Royals are rn, wouldn’t be bad to give Dozuer a look, maybe in a platoon with Moss.
2B: Merrifield SS: Mondesi 3B: Cuthbert- deserves a chance after a productive 2016.
Outfield: LF Gordon CF: Maybe Orlando, may use an upgrade/ rental. RF Bonifacio. DH Soler- Sure he may be looking like a bust but if I’m KC, it’s worth giving him another shot and try to get more out of Wade Davis trade.
This may be the Royals plan but I feel like this is smart, gives the Royals the chance to find a more immediate future core, though if this fails, The Royals may be faced with a major rebuild like Detroit. They want to get back into contention sooner than later, like 2-3 years. I think it’s worth a shot.
We’ve been through the wilderness without even pretending to have a plan to get out for 30 years, I for one can handle 2-4 years of struggling at the major league level knowing we at least have a plan (whether or not it’s a good one is yet to be seen).
I love our core guys, but I think we have to let them all walk at this point and trade just about everyone. Only thing worse than a full rebuild is a half-ass rebuild.
If we trade Duffy (Sucks sentimentally but we need the talent more in 2021 than we do in 2018), Soria and the relievers (though I agree with Rustin relievers are worth more in August than in February), add to that six picks in the first two rounds this year and a few years worth of top 10 picks we should be able to bounce back and be competitive again by 2020 or 2021.
It sucks, but it’s the life of a small market team in today’s baseball economy.
This is probably a good time to shop Duffy.. I am not sure how available they have made him but IMO he is a better investment than Cole and since he has 4 years of affordable control he should interest most if not all of the contenders.. As a Yankee fan I would be more comfortable giving up 3 top prospects not named Torres for Duffy before giving up the same 3 for Cole.. Frazier, Adams, and Acevado would hurt but would be worth it in my book.. I wouldn’t be thrilled about trading Torres for Duffy one for one but I could live with it.. Cole for some reason just doesn’t seem like the type of pitcher that will excel in Yankee stadium.. Duffy has the advantage of being a lefty which automatically makes him the better option for me..
Blame it all on the small market! I love never having to admit bonehead mistakes.
Yup! Being in the middle does the team no good at all! They have to rebuild all the way!
You pretty much nailed the starting line-up. Ned is going to start Moss a lot at first. Our goal is to have the smiliest infield in the league and Moss would be the icing on the cake. Don’t tell anybody but we see the product more as “wholesome family entertainment” than competitive major league baseball.
Part of the #justsayno movement. Why did they sign Kennedy or Gordon? Teams are getting smarter as they “just say no”.
#metoo
I read that inventory and I am amazed I still have a job.
#metoo
I would trade the young relievers and Duffy some time between now and the trade deadline.
Sal Perez is amazing, but there doesn’t seem to be a market for catchers right now. I’d save him to help the next wave of pitchers.
No market for catchers? I don’t believe that at all! I think catcher is one of the most important positions on the field
and will always be in demand. There are quite a few teams who need catchers at this time including the Rockies, Mets, Rangers, A’s , Phillies, Brewers, and several other teams that are boderline at needing a major upgrade!
I wouldn’t mind the Cardinals kicking the tires on a trade for duffy and herrera. I wonder what that would cost.
I could see something like that happening. The Duffy dui incident may hurt the chances of it happening. But I think we should trade another good pitching prospect, and some of our surplus outfielders.