The competitive balance tax has been a significant offseason storyline, most notably in regards to big-market teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants are all looking to stay under the threshold this winter in order to reset their tax costs and further position them for bigger spending next offseason and beyond. While much has been made about the value of avoiding the tax, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman notes that the actual financial cost is pretty minimal for teams (like the Nationals) who barely exceed the threshold. For instance, the Nats’ current $199.2MM payroll puts them $2.2MM over the tax line, putting D.C. in line for a 30% tax on the overage since this would be the club’s second straight year over the threshold. Since only the overage is taxed, however, the Nationals would only be paying an extra $660K. Zuckerman figures that a contending team like Washington shouldn’t have any issue in paying a bit extra tax money in order to acquire a pricey trade addition during the season, especially if that player ends up helping the Nats finally enjoy some postseason success.
Some more from around the baseball world…
- Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins declined to say whether or not the team discussed a long-term deal with Josh Donaldson before the two sides settled on Donaldson’s 2018 contract, Atkins told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters. Both the third baseman and the team have been quiet about what extension talks (if any) have taken place, which has only led to trade speculation as Donaldson enters the last year of his deal. Toronto aims to contend this season, however, so it doesn’t seem like a Donaldson trade would happen until the July deadline, if at all. The two sides already collaborated on one tricky negotiation — the $23MM Donaldson will earn in 2018, a single-year record for an arbitration-eligible player. Davidi’s piece also contains quotes from Atkins on the Blue Jays’ other arbitration cases, plus Davidi’s estimation that the team has roughly $20MM left in payroll space to spend on further upgrades.
- In his latest Insider-only piece, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney opines that the Giants’ desire to avoid giving up draft picks to sign qualifying offer-rejecting free agents may be short-sighted. San Francisco’s veteran-heavy roster is built to win now, and signing the likes of a Lorenzo Cain would do wonders for the troubled Giants outfield, adding more immediate help than the theoretical value of the second-round pick the club would have be surrendering in order to sign Cain.
- Also from Olney, he hears from front office executives that teams aren’t willing to overpay for the nebulous idea of clubhouse leadership. While every club hopes to add players with good attitudes in general, one exec notes that “leadership is organic within each group of players,” and often dependent on a specific mix of personalities. “A player might have a reputation for being a leader, but if he gets hurt or doesn’t play well, that disappears,” another executive said.
Wait, so giving up draft picks to sign a 32-year-old outfielder is the short-sighted thing to do?
Depends on what they want to do. The Longoria trade suggests they still want one more run at it, rather than a total rebuild. They could rebuild the farm in a second by trading MadBum and Buster.
One of the writers made an interesting comment. SF were happy to trade one of their best prospects (Arroyo) to get Longoria (who isn’t cheap) instead of giving up a second round unknown pick and signing a FA third baseman. Interesting perspective.
Arroyo WAS a top prospect. It appears as though some things have changed.
Also he’s from the Tampa area so could be good for him to be home.
Trading Buster and or Madbum would give this team a big haul at least 8 players combined. They had a chance to trade the Shark during the July Deadline.
I’d argue Buster Posey would not bring back all that much. He’s owed $111 million over the next 5 years, which probably is about his market value as a catcher, meaning a team would likely be disinclined to give up significant prospects and salary for little or no surplus value. And that’s if you believe he can stay at catcher. He offers below average offensive production for a 1B and falls into the category of “terrible contract” if he plays 1B. Mad Bum could bring a bunch of you trade him now. Posey would only draw moderate prospects from a team with a 2-3 year window and no legit catcher in my opinion.
The Giants could get either Gardner or Ellsbury from the Yanks, or Cutch from the Pirates. All are short term solutions to their problem without givving up any players. These players fit the bill for the Giants, they are veteran players who have played in the playoffs and would cost you league average.
None of those players move the needle for the giants.
Who do they get?
If the Yankees take on half of Ellsbury’s contract, that still makes him a 3/33 player.
The Giants wouldn’t go that much for Jay Bruce on the open market, I can’t fathom they’d give up real players for a worse player on a worse deal.
Ellsbury had a 1,6 WAR last year in 400 at bats, he is a veteran who can play both CF and LF better than Bruce. The Giants have a big park,which makes him even better. They didn’t go that much for Bruce because he put them over the cap.
Buster Posey could play CF better than Bruce, so thats not much of a qualifier. Dont think SF was ever thinking to play Bruce there, if they had signed him.
Thats still $33 million though for a bad player
Yanks want Darvish, you could get Ellsbury for 30 million,10 million a year.
Send over Chance Adams and a fringe prospect with that and any team will take that.
Otherwise, I don’t see a way the Yankees can get rid of him.
Ho do they get Cutch or Ells without giving up any players? Explain this? Plus it doesn’t solve the CF problem!
Your right, I meant for the Yankee players, Cutch would cost only prospects. The Giants need short term solutions because of their payroll and cap problems. They also don’t know where they are with their pitching.
The Giant’s don’t know where they are with their pitching? Seriously? They have Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, top 3, with Blach, Stratton, and Beede competing for the #4 & #5 spots. In the pen they have Melancon, Dyson, Will Smith, Gearrin, Strickland, Law, and Crick with help in the minors in Suarez. They could make some minor moves to improve but otherwise the pitching is not a major concern.
Ellsbury was awful last season and I’m not sure the Yankees want to deal Gardner. McCutchen makes some sense, especially now after the Cole trade.
Not so, 1.6 WAR in 400 at bats projects out better than Bruce.
Whether his WAR was better than Bruce’s is irrelevant. Bruce was signed for his power. There isn’t a lot of options for power. The need Ellsbury would supposedly address is CF. There’s a multitude of better options for CF than Ellsbury. The 3 year commitment, even with the Yanks paying a chunk, is still not as good as other options.
The Giants don’t play in a home run park, they need a good all around player.
And so you’re suggesting a 35-year-old, past his prime CF as that “all-around player”?
Ells wasn’t terrible just not worth anywhere what his contract is. He has massive negative value based on his contract. It will be interesting to see if the Yanks can move him. He would get maybe a one year 10-12 million on the market this year. Yanks would have to eat more then half that contract to get rid of him imo. Would anyone give Ellsbury a three year 33 million if he was a free agent no way not even close. He can’t stay healthy and he is getting older.
Most experts think a player with a WAR of 1 is worth 8 million a year, that means Ellsbury might be worth about 13 million a year playing full time. He fits the Giants to a tee, he is a veteran who can play LF and CF and has played in the playoffs well. 10 million a year is a good deal for Ellsbury.
Well Jay Bruce a 2.9 War player signed a 3 year 2
39 million contract do really thin that Lorenzo Cain Cain is going to sign to anywhere near a 40 million a year contract due to his 8 million a year for war? I think the 8 million a year per WAR isn’t happening this year. Based on Ellsbury’s age and that a lot of his value is based on speed I would be shocked if Ells got more then 10 million on a one year if he was a free agent. At best a 2 year 20 million contract. I think the experts are going to have rethink WAR value this offseason.
“think”
Olney likes to prop players up. Lots of fluf from him..
I cannot figure out where Olney is coming from on this one. The Giants signed Angel Pegan and Denard Span to long term deals when the were entering their age 32 season. And, both times the player had to be moved from center before the deal was over. The Giants are actually trying not to make the same mistake again, and Olney is criticizing them for it.
He acknowledges that the Giants farm system is in bad shape, but acts like there isn’t any other possible options for the Giants
Olney is so overrated
Can you name a time when Olney was correct?
To be fair, both those deals looked worse at the time than Cain would look, although there’s some truth in that. The Giants seem to be in total stasis; they can’t develop their farm system and they have an older, expensive roster, plus an old manager who I assume wants another shot at a title to cement his HoF legacy (he’s getting in anyway). They do things different up there for sure, but you can’t argue with results. The Giants don’t rebuild.
I feel Cameron Maybin is a good fit for the Giants and is a great clubhouse guy
Giants…….Lol
Oh look, a Dodger fan. 30 years since a World Series win…..Lol.
Jays need to give him a 4yr extension $95M. They should go after CarGo. They need another hitter
Which is it? They need another hitter, or they should sign Car-Go? Can they afford to do both?
Technically yes. He is already under contract this year so an extension won’t change that. The Jays have 20M left to upgrade this year. They are looking for an OF and a SP.
They need more then an OF and A SP. they need two starters, and OF, bullpen arms, new GM, new Manager and new front office. Jays have an extremely slim chance at post season baseball.
This 20 million figure is BS. Rogers could and should add another 20 million to that if they truly wanted to be taking a run at a playoff spot.
Darvish would look good at the top of our rotation. Car-go would make a nice RF piece and bat.
The richest company in Canada owns the team. Own the ballpark. Owns the television stations
They basically own every asset to make money from this team. Yet we aren’t top of the payroll heap. We support this team and deserve better
Don’t you dare trade Vlad and Bichette either
Agree with Jaysrule, this team needs too many pieces to compete. Time to rebuild. They are out of the playoffs even before the season starts.
And Rogers is going to sell them, so expenses must be kept down and hype must be kept high to sell tickets and eyeballs on the TV sets.
It looks like a long lean road without playoffs ahead for Jays fans especially with Shapiro/Atkins in charge.
Toronto and Canada does deserve better but unfortunately this is about money and not winning now. As for not trading Vlad jr and Bischette, I agree with not trading Vlad jr, I scout him at the mlb level as a superstar but Bischette will barely be a good player at the MLB level, probably below average major leaguer.
If they can get a great deal now by offer Bischette as a centerpiece in a deal, they should do it in a heartbeat for a good SP or SP prospects. #scoutseyes
Your right, I meant for the Yankee players, Cutch would cost only prospects. The Giants need short term solutions because of their payroll and cap problems. They also don’t know where they are with their pitching.
I just don’t see a plan in San Francisco-
They give up great young players in the Longo deal and have obviously been going for the win-now, but don’t want to give up a 2nd round pick to sign a player who would help them win now.
I have never advocated for the Giants to take the go-for-broke approach, but if you’re going to do it, do it all the way so that what you already gave up this offseason wasn’t just wasted.
They gave up “potentially” great young players. Not happy to see Arroyo go but…what did he show at the MLB level? This is like when people said “we got rid of Andres Torres after one bad season” when in fact he was always terrible–he had one GOOD season. Shortsightedness goes every which way.
Arroyo has been among the top of the Giants prospect system for multiple years now. “What did he show at the MLB level” You’re judging him on his first 125 AB in the league. Evan Longoria had a .737 OPS, he’s over-rated. I bet there are many, many people who would say that they’d rather have Arroyo for 6 years, than Longoria for 6 years, getting paid more and more as the years go on.
With all due respect, I doubt many GM’s would rather have Arroyo over Longoria for the next 6 years. I agree, Arroyo needs time, but I would still rather have Longoria relative to their current roster, which is veterans wanting to win now. Now if I’m the Marlins, I’d take Arroyo over Longoria. If your suggesting by the time Arroyo’s career is done he’ll be better than Longoria was…..I doubt it
Arroyo will not have as great of numbers as Longoria but he will save you a lot of money over the next 6 years. Tampa traded him as a salary dump. He is being paid way better than his output will be. He will need to hit 300 with 40 home runs to be worth that much.
Fair enough. Let’s face it, unless your name is Barry Bonds, nobody is going to hit 40 home runs playing in that park. If Longoria can hit .290+ and drive in 95+ runs & continue to play great defense, then I think contract is worth it.
Just because you don’t see a plan doesn’t mean none exists. There are other options besides signing Cain and punting the second-highest pick in the second round. Who’s to say the difference between Cain and someone like Jon Jay is more than the value of that pick. There are players that have value that they could sign while simultaneously restocking the farm.
Giants WILL NOT contend this season. They don’t have the horses in the starting and bull pen staffs to withstand the grind of the season and the injures that go with it.
The Dodgers have outmaneuvered them easily.
Sell off the Bum and Posey, restock the farm system, and try again in a couple of seasons.
I like Lorenzo Cain, Billy Hamilton, Longoria, etc., bunches, now is not the time: the window closed last season.
As much as I hate to admit it, you’re right. I’m a lifelong Giants fan but they’re are not close. Their front office is terrible & current players aren’t playing to their potential. Belt is atrocious & can’t hit a fastball. Posey has underachieved the last couple years, Pence is injury prone, their bullpen hasn’t had a real “stopper” in 2 years (& front office still hasn’t addressed that) & there outfield is worst in MLB. Front office needs to make up their minds on are they in or out. If in then lets go all in & go get JD Martinez, Cain, or McCutchen. Go sign Wade Davis & have Melancon be the set up RP. And if not in, then trade the horses & get some young studs & get ready for 2020 or 21. But I don’t think they (the front office) knows if they’re in or out.
They know what they’re doing. The ballpark is paid off and they’re making money hand over fist with all of the development around the park. That said, they might be one of the most financially healthy teams in all of baseball. So we have a few down years. Everything will look different in 2-3 years times if we’re not successful. They still draw well over 3 million fans a year. Huge revenue.
They are still paying on the stadium. Also their fan base is from world series years and has been going down the last few years. One more down year and they will be struggling to get over the 2 million mark.
Wrong. The stadium is 100% paid for.
mccoveychronicles.com/2017/2/23/14716810/sf-giants…
fieldofschemes.com/2017/02/24/12159/sf-giants-make…
sfchronicle.com/giants/article/Giants-pay-off-AT-T…
From a financial standpoint front office is doing great. But from a “putting together a championship team” they are horrendous the last few years. Example: when Cubs won World Series a couple years ago the Giants were right there, but they had 1 glaring weakness…the could not close games. Casilla, Romo, Strickland, couldn’t save a game to save their life. At midpoint SF leads majors in blown saves & Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, & Melancon were all available at trade deadline. What do Giants do to address that? Nothing. How did their season end in playoffs that year? SF had a 4-1 lead over Cubs going into the 9th inning in Game 4 & what happens? A blown save. Shocking right. How could GM not go get a reliever at trade deadline. Stupidest thing ever. BTW, if SF wins that game we had Cueto & MadBum ready to go in deciding game
The Giants didn’t have anything to offer for Chapman and Miller. And they certainly didn’t have a guy like Felipe Rivero to land Melancon.
Saying they didn’t do anything makes it seem like they just sat around and twiddled their thumbs. What were they supposed to do?
They didn’t do nothing — they acquired Will Smith. Not an elite closer, but a very good LH reliever who could get RH hitters out as well.
Maybe Bochy should have started the top of the 9th in Game 4 with him instead of a rookie setup man.
IIRC, there were talks to try to nab one of either Miller or Chapman, but the asking price was Joe Panik + and the Giants balked. So, to be fair, the talks happened, but the Giants just did what they always do and that is to walk away from trades that make sense.
How would Panik + make sense?
They didn’t have depth in the middle infield. Contending teams don’t trade from the MLB roster unless they can have an adequate replacement ready to go.
Thank you for your input.
The only thing the Dodgers have outmaneuvered is a World Series win the last 30 years.
Hamilton, Lagares, Werth, the list is endless on OF. Bad year for Cain to be on the market.
Again with the “Jays aim to contend this year” crap from Atkins. Enough already. IT AIN’T HAPPENIN’. This Jays Mgmt team is either selling Kool_aid to get their sales bonuses or they are incompetent in their professional scouting evaluation of the major league club.
They have 20m left to spend and need #1`, #3, 40% catcher of quality, RFer, shutdown lefty reliever and getting these players would mean they can contend. Yeesh.
Perhaps they can pull a #3 out of the minors. Of they could recycle the trash they used last year in the rotation.
Josh Donaldson is gone at the trade deadline when the Jays are out of contention. They may start well in 2018 but age and injuries and lack of talent will put them out by the break. Bank on it.
Can’t blame them. It took them 20 years to get the fan base back to where it was. Health will be the key for the rotation, 2 years ago the same fivesome lead the AL. The bullpen stayed together that was decent last year. Hernandez, Alford and Pompey can fight it out for the 2 OF spots. 20M can get another OF and a decent SP which would put Biagini back in the pen making it even better. Again health will be key. Travis will be a huge improvement if healthy.
To fellow Giant fans, I think the Giants will not sign Cain bc he is too expensive and they want to reset re the luxury tax this year. I think the Giants will go after Harper next off season. As for the present, I think they will sign Dyson for c.f. and leadoff. Cain will probably cost too much if they sign Harper. That leaves right/left field depending on whether Pence is better or worse in right.
There are many options for left or right in the present market. I also think the Giants need a starting pitcher and a veteran relief pitcher but I am not holding my breath. Prince’s k is up next year
Ok. . . this is not baseball related but did anyone else notice the horrible syntax in that first paragraph? There were 52 words in the opening sentence. A total of 5 periods were used to construct that paragraph. That’s atrocious!