Remarkably, no free agents have secured MLB guarantees of four or more years to this point, as the MLBTR 2017-18 free agent tracker shows. Hyun-soo Kim did get that length of deal to return to his native Korea, and several players picked up vesting options for fourth seasons, but it’s still a notable aspect of this winter’s player market.
That said, several players have secured promises for at least three campaigns, some of which include hefty average annual values. Relievers have dominated the early proceedings, but two position players and two pitchers who are expected to work as starters are among those to secure the largest contracts to date.
Keeping our field to the group of players who’ve secured three-year pacts, which do you think was the wisest signing, all things considered?
- Carlos Santana, 1B, Phillies ($60MM with club option): While most sluggers remain uncommitted entering 2018, Santana was pursued by multiple teams and ended up as a surprise first splash from the Phils’ front office. This was a competitive bidding situation for an accomplished hitter who is limited to playing first base, but there’s an argument to be made that the team has added a cornerstone piece at a palatable price and manageable term of commitment.
- Wade Davis, RP, Rockies ($52MM with vesting player option): While we had guessed that Davis could take down four years, he took a higher annual value over a slightly shorter term. The deal also leaves Davis with some protection at the back end, as he’ll have a very achievable vesting player option for the 2021 campaign. It’s possible to highlight the record-setting AAV here, but the Rox also no doubt feel pleased that they got the open market’s best closer at a lower overall guarantee than that secured by Mark Melancon last winter.
- Tyler Chatwood, SP, Cubs ($38MM): Here at MLBTR, we thought we might be a bit bullish on Chatty when we predicted he’d secure a three-year guarantee. It turned out we were extremely light on the dollars, as he ended up nearly doubling our best guess. Teams obviously were enamored of his stuff and youth; if he can thrive while pitching full-time away from Coors Field, perhaps the Cubs may yet have a bargain.
- Zack Cozart, SS/3B, Angels ($38MM): Year after year, Cozart has rated among the best defenders in baseball. And more recently, he has shown the bat to match, never more than in a highly productive 2017 campaign. But there just has never been adequate demand at short to drive his market. Enter the Angels, who intend to utilize Cozart at third base, where he’ll pair with the incomparable Andrelton Simmons and new second baseman Ian Kinsler to form an incredibly talented trio of defensive infielders.
- Mike Minor, SP/RP, Rangers ($28MM): Though he rebounded as a reliever in 2017, Minor has in the past been quite a high-quality starter. It seems that the Rangers’ willingness to utilize him in that role may have been a separator to allow the team to land Minor. His health remains a question, but if Minor can return to anything like his former form in the rotation he’d deliver huge value on the contract.
- Jake McGee, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): We expected the power lefty to secure a three-year deal, but he flew past our best guess ($18MM) at the guarantee. Still, it’s worth remembering that McGee succeeded in baseball’s most difficult pitching environment last year, so he has already shown the Rox what he can do at altitude. And he regained the velocity he had lost in his first year in Colorado, though he still is working at about two mph less than he did in his best days with the Rays.
- Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): Here again, an accomplished reliever secured a larger guarantee than we foresaw (in his case, $21MM). Shaw’s recent track record is of the sort that invites the question: does his durability through heavy use prove that he’s a workhorse, or suggest he could be carrying some worn-out parts that might be prone to breaking? Colorado is betting on the former. The 30-year-old has been steadily effective and has always answered the call to this point in his career.
CubsFanForLife
Cozart and Santana were really good signings, though the former makes a little more sense as the Angels have a clearer competitive window open for 2018. Meanwhile, that Davis deal is going to get ugly quickly.
chitown311
Wade Davis as a reliever the past 4 years has been nothing short of outstanding. 32/33 in save opportunities last year with an era of 2.30. Big time closers go to big time teams that are willing to pay.
chri
he has had elbow issues in the past and relievers have short windows, 3 years isn’t that bad, but a $17.33M AAV is atrocious.
CubsRule08
Exactly. Not to mention, his $17.33M AAV is the highest AAV for a reliever…in MLB history. That contract is going to get bad, really fast
jaysfan1988
Signing a QO alone (17,4m) would’ve broke the record for “highest AAV” as a reliever.. Which he declined – meaning any other team interested in signing him needs to be around that figure over 2 years… and the team that wants to win the bidding war likely has to go to 3 years. Thats the cost of acquisition…learn how markets work.
cmancoley
Not true actually. Many players decline a qualifying offer to take more years a lower AAV
jaysfan1988
Jansen, Encarnacion, Cespedes, Grienke, Chris Davis, Heyward, Upton, Samardzija, Turner, Fowler, Chen, Desmond all topped the AAV of the QO they turned down.
Nice try though.
soxfan1
He said many, not all.
John Murray
As others have said, unless you’re HOF level, it’s rare that relievers last into their thirties at an elite level. It’s a really risky signing.
Android Dawesome
Are you saying that the Rockies are a big time team?
Mikel Grady
Cubs aren’t big time? They won World Series in 2016. Theo doesn’t spend big on closers.(he does on right fielders:-). I like Chatwood signing. We shall see what he does away form Coors Field and what Davis does at Coors. I hope cubs passed on Davis to get darvish or Cobb and Harper next year.
jdgoat
I think the Chatwood signing will give the best value in the long run. Cozarts is really good too
BaseballRebel
To think ex-Angel GM Dipoto traded him at 21 y/o for over-hyped Chris Iannetta 28 at the time and a hitting product of Coors field will go down as one of his biggest blunders among many blunders.
jdgoat
Iannetta gave the Angels three above average years, especially for a catcher, while providing good defense. That wasn’t a bad trade
BaseballRebel
I disagree. There were better options on the table, DIpoto is known for trading his best prospects for mid tier talent. They didn’t even win a postseason game with Iannetta, so it was a loss.
CompanyAssassin
I really appreciate the content MLBTR have continued to put out, even with the remarkably slow offseason. I know my local writers have simply stopped altogether. I enjoy having something to read, especially being so slow. Thanks to everyone who’s been making it happen.
Maize
^^^
dynamite drop in monty
asuchrisc
I was thinking this same thought over the weekend. Kudos to you guys that keep putting something, anything, out there.
Tom E. Snyder
“Best 3-year signing to date.” Is that from the viewpoint of the team or of the player–the answers would not necessarily be the same.
yoyo137
They asked who the best signing was, “all things considered” so consider everything
canajay12
My question is where do we go from here for closers? Do we really see an AAV of 20M in the next couple years? It’s trending that way quickly.
brucebochyisthemarlboroman
It definitely is trending that way but I foresee a rather drastic market correction on that in seasons to come.
majorflaw
Um, why? Teams aren’t running out of money.
Mikel Grady
I agree with correction in closers. They are hot one year and cold as ice the next. I’d take kershaw,Scherzer, kluber, verlander and pitch any of you the 9th than trash starters going 2-3 innings and World Series games being 15-14 games
CursedRangers
It’s crazy money. Davis has had a WAR below 2 over the last two seasons. Great player, but the closets are so limited in opportunities. He will be getting paid roughly $100,000 per pitch.
I’ve been waiting for a market correction for the offensive players and starting pitchers. But it hasn’t happened (unless this is the offseason that it does). I hope closers don’t end up at $20M+ as it’s absurd. Especially when you compare it to the salaries of the superstars in other sports. But I imagine it will happen sooner rather than later.
fox471 Dave
Are you suggesting that after he comes out of the closet he will be worth more?
Erik Trenouth
The real value of relievers comes in the playoffs. For sure they’re valuable in the regular season, but when they can pitch high leverage innings in nearly every post season game, they become nearly as valuable as your best hitter.
jaysfan1988
You know salaries of MLB players have no relation whatsoever to the salaries of other sports figures, right? Nor do they have any correlation to what you “think” a market for a specific position should be. MLB player salaries are tied to the actual revenues of their sport and nothing else. If people consume the product, players make more.
Erik Trenouth
I imagine Andrew Miller will be pushing for that next winter.
MafiaBass
Kimbrel will get a big contract too. I think he’s a FA after 19? Maybe after this year. I hope the Sox lock him up beforehand.
bastros88
we complain about it now, but when yur team is in the postseason, you need bullpen arms. That is why Wade Davis is being paid so much, to help this team into the postseason,besides, he was great last season, and who knows, maybe he stays that way
jaysfan1988
Why are we “complaining” in the first place though? Because world class athletes with infinitely more talent within their industry than you or I are being paid their market value?
Funny.
AidanVega123
Preach
CJ81
Cozart and Chatwood both seem like a steal to me and a position of need. I think the santana deal has the potential to be great as well depending on how the rest of the phillies progress.
hooligan
Cozart and Santana are the safest of the bunch. Both *should* be at least three win players, though I think I like the Cozart deal more.
kbarr888
Am I the only one that was expecting to see “A Poll” at the end of the article…..and that we would get to vote on it???
fox471 Dave
Make a pick. That’s the poll.
NL_East_Rivalry
If you’re using the app click the link at the bottom
Monkey’s Uncle
I appreciate the arguments in favor of either Cozart or Chatwood, both seem like wise signings. But to me the best of these deals is Santana, simply because it’s such a needed splash deal for the Phillies. They really needed to bring in a big name to lead the young core and to excite the fan base. They chose well with Santana IMO.
Senioreditor
Honestly, I don’t think any of the signings were good. I’ll think we’ll look back at this years class as view it as one of the worst ever. I guess time will tell.
bastros88
I agree
fox471 Dave
Cozart to Angels!
SashaBanksFan
I’m excited for the cozart signing because in 2019 he can move to 2nd because Kinsler will be on the Angels for just one season. Third base then becomes open for one of the big free agents next season. I think Eppler made these moves with that in mind. Ohtani, Cosart, Upton will be around for at least 3-6 yrs. Eppler needs to convince Trout the team is trying and viable for the postseason when his contract is up in 3 years. Has me excited to be an Angels fan for a change.
sufferforsnakes
Cozart. Provides the most value for the $$$.
Mikel Grady
Zack Cozart – Angels 33.39% (2,529 votes)
Carlos Santana – Phillies 26.62% (2,016 votes)
Tyler Chatwood – Cubs 17.23% (1,305 votes)
Wade Davis – Rockies 11.71% (887 votes)
Mike Minor – Rangers 6.25% (473 votes)
Bryan Shaw – Rockies 3.66% (277 votes)
Jake McGee – Rockies 1.14% (86 votes)
JFactor
Cosart or Minor
andrey c.
If Minor can pitch as well for 5 innings as he did in 2 and 3 inning relief appearances last year he could end up being very undervalued.
Given the way starting pitchers are being pulled before facing batters a third time nowadays, I feel he has a good chance of succeeding.
raef715
i don’t get all the excitement over the Zach Cosart signing; maybe its just that im highly skeptical when a guy puts up by far his best numbers at age 31 in his walk year.
Santana to the Phils, because the money is irrelvant to them, and the years palatable, and the impact he can have on young players, etc, would be the no doubt best signing, if it wasnt connected to Rhys Hoskins moving to left field.
wrigleywannabe
I agree, cozart is a risk.
soggycereal
wow then you really are gonna hate jd martinez’s contract
bjsguess
The “excitement” is due to the low floor. Cozart at 1.5 wins/year is basically break even. Given his defense, he could achieve that with a below league average bat (ex 2016 – he was 10% below league average offensively but was worth 2.5 fWAR).
If his run in 2017 is anything close to what you can expect moving forward then there is a ton of surplus value. Steamer is projecting a down year of 3.5 fWAR – that’s about $32MM in year one while the club is paying out $13MM. It’s not often that FA signings have the potential to generate such surplus value.
Finally, this signing (1) fixed a glaring need (2) avoided potential pitfalls like paying $100MM to Moose and (3) the Angels are in the right spot on the win curve to where it makes sense for this type of signing. In a vacuum, the Santana signing is great but when married against reality, a rebuilding team probably shouldn’t be spending $20MM/annually for an aging slugger.
Phillies2017
Seeing as how Cozart probably should have gotten a QO and is now signing for THAT Eppler gets my vote, furthermore, the Chatwood and Santana deals are solid as well
timyanks
we’ll have to wait three years to vote for the best signing
majorflaw
Lemme see if I got this. Three hours a day x five days = fifteen hours. Three hundred dollars for fifteen hours work is @ twenty bucks an hour. What’s the big deal? Your other offer of three thousand a week for only three hours work total was far more enticing.
Better spammers, please.
Z-A 2
Rockies went all in on relievers this year didn’t they?
BaseballRebel
Cozart won’t even bat .250 in Anacrime, don’t even expect 10 HRs out of the dude
bjsguess
I’ll take that bet.
He has hit above 250 4 out of the last 5 years. On a 600PA rate he has AVERAGED 20 HR’s/year in the last 3 years. Yes, moving to Anaheim won’t help with the power but measuring a player like Cozart based on batting average and HR’s is completely missing the boat.
PaulOneill
did you miss the upton deal or just not scroll all the way down on the free agent tracker?