It has been easy to notice the increased chatter surrounding top free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, but his timeline for signing has largely remained uncertain — as has the likely landing spot. The latest updates seem both to narrow and expand the possibilities:
- The Phillies are “checking in” on Darvish, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though he also notes that the club is doing the same with other top free agents. Philadelphia appears to be positioning itself as a potential landing spot for players whose markets haven’t developed as hoped. With loads of money to spend, the team could certainly function as an opportunistic buyer, particularly in its greatest area of evident need — the rotation. Unsurprisingly, Rosenthal says, the team would mostly be interested in relatively shorter-term arrangements. That seems to be consistent with the Phils’ approach already this offseason, which has featured relatively hefty salaries on two or three-year arrangements.
- It seems that momentum could now be building toward a decision, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Darvish is “increasingly likely” to reach a deal this week. With just three weeks remaining until Spring Training gets underway, it seems reasonable to expect a break in the long-building free-agent tension. For other starters — and perhaps even some other position players — a deal for Darvish could not only set an important market marker but also free certain organizations to pursue other priorities.
- Otherwise, the Twins remain actively engaged in Darvish, Morosi notes, though that has been known for some time now. We last checked in on Minnesota’s interest yesterday, with indications being that the team wasn’t willing to make a market-topping offer. Of course, numerous other teams — in addition to any mystery entrants — are still also reported to be in pursuit. We’ve heard chatter recently of an offer from the Brewers, significant engagement from the Cubs, and ongoing interest from the Rangers and Dodgers. In sum, there’s still little in the way of clarity in terms of how things will play out. But today’s report suggests that organizations could be readying their final push for Darvish, whose representatives at Wasserman are no doubt working to secure the biggest offers possible and sorting through all the other factors that will weigh into the decision.
bravesandcrewfan
Purely a gut feeling, but I really don’t see him ending up with the Rangers or Dodgers. They both just don’t seem to be in the right place at this point.
Jkolti
I think he will end up in Chicago. They have the money, and darvish makes them an even bigger WS candidate than they already are.
ray_derek
i would tend to agree, if the cubs are truly interested they’re going to out bid milwaukee or minnesota
michaelw
Milw is all smoke n mirrors. More Milw media hyping it up. They might have asked about him or even threw in a low ball bid but that’s it.
My bet tbh is he goes to Minn
417caseyray
Brewers have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and have every intention of contending with the Cubs for the division. They are very much in the hunt for Darvish.
bigjonliljon
Don’t think so. They have the lowest payroll and want to keep it this way. All these FA rumors, trade rumors… a smoke screen for the fan base. Sell some tickets and gain interest. Won’t do anything.
mikeyst13
Brewers actually tend to be top 10 in attendance. They don’t really need to drum up interest to draw higher ticket sales, especially coming off a good season. Besides, how are rumors about signing someone then not doing it going to build up ticket sales when they don’t even go on sale til after these guys will be signed? Now they obviously are not going to be able to compete with teams like the Cubs if it’s a bidding war, bit it’s more than smoke ansld mirrors.
wscaddie56
Unless you are a mind reader, stating the brewers ‘have every intention of competing’ is speculation not backed up but evidence. Rumored to be in on Gray and Quintana, rumored to be in on Arrieta, rumored to be in on Cain, rumored to be in on Yelich.
Totally unsure why a horribly inexperienced GM that couldn’t put together a rotation to make it through the season last year would get any benefit of the doubt.
I hope I’m wrong cuz this group of players deserves better.
11Bravo
A lot of teams rarely make it through the with the original five or six projected starters. That doesn’t make Stearns “horribly inexperienced”. Let’s also not forget he had a big part in building up the Astros as assistant GM to Luhnow. Plus he’s built up the farm system that ranked as dead last in all of MLB not too long ago. That’s why he gets the benefit of the doubt.
davbee
Brewers were in the playoff chase until the last weekend of the season with moves like Thames and Shaw that nobody got too excited about when they were made.
I’ll put my trust in David Stearns.
buzdon
Now that they have signed Cain and traded for Yelich, that smoke screen seems to be in front of a pretty good size fire doesn’t it?
Hammmbone
Milwaukee is all smoke and mirrors huh???? I guess not.
ea1923sports
You couldn’t have been more wrong. They traded for Yelich and signed Cain to a big contract. lol
rudestdude
Now they need to sign Mike Moustakas for 3rd base.
yanks02026
Cubs would be in same
Position as last year. Darvish and Jake A just cross each other out
CubsFanForLife
I’d rather have Darvish than Arrieta’s control issues
ray_derek
I would also rather have Darvish
mpantojas7
Agreed. Darvish is an upgrade from Arrieta. Chatwood should be an upgrade over Lackey and having Q for the full year will be big. This is all contingent on health since Hendricks missed a good amount of time last year.
beajd27
I don’t know, darvish has been pretty bad in the playoffs. It’s a big commitment to make when you’re not just trying to get in the playoffs.
Android Dawesome
Plus Brett Anderson is gone. At this point adding any of the big four free agents is an over all rotation improvement
Codeeg
The team is young enough still to see improvement in play just from a developmental standpoint.
jasonpen
Bad in the playoffs? He had two recent bad starts in the world series, but that was said to be from tipping his pitches. He was lights out against the Cubs and D-backs. Aside from the WS anomaly, he’s given up 2 or less runs in 3 out of his 4 playoff starts.
mike127
Kershaw has been bad in the playoffs, historically, as well. The problem with baseball–is you play 162 games to get to the playoffs and then the whole premise of how the game is played changes. Starting pitchers are only asked to go four or five innings. With days off, relievers can pitch every day. Managers abandon conventional baseball wisdom.
Outside the one game playoff, it’s basically a one in eight crapshoot once you get there.
Patick L
Good point and you’re not going to not pitch Kershaw in the playoffs
jleve618
I wouldn’t call his postseason starts with Texas good.
stollcm
Shoot I thought starting pitchers were only asked to throw 4-5 innings now….lol
madmanTX
lol you’ll regret saying that. You must not have seen many of Darvish’s games that he lost with the Rangers and Dodgers.
madmanTX
Nope. And some of his regular season starts were pretty awful when he got hammered pretty good.
jmocubsfan832
Name one pitcher that doesn’t get hammered sometimes. everyone conveniently forgets they are pitching to professional hitters, and sometimes the hitters are just better.
One Fan
Not the same at all. Darvish is better then Arietta and Chatwood is better then Lackey
BlueJayFan1515
Factoring in the start against the Jays, he hasn’t been an elite postseason pitcher
ThatBallwasBryzzoed
I’d take Cobb over both but arrieta over darvish
chicagoguy7
“Than”
Dad
Yeah but every team needs a red ass guy that just keeps an edge about competing. That guy is Lackey .I didn’t want him as a Cards fan, but I wanted him back when he was gone and so was the pitching staffs edge
garyleet
I agree. Last year Bryant’s K rate dropped dramatically from when he first came up. I am looking for the same improvement from Happ.
BackFlips1982
It’s well documented that he was tipping pitches. I don’t think teams are too concerned, but it could have cost him some money.
jawilli31
Cubs most likely. They’re losing Jake and Theo hasn’t forgotten how well he pitched against them at Wrigley playoff time.
oldleftylong
Spot on.
yankeeaddiction
I think he is looking to sign with a team that has a legitimate shot in 2018 so the Cubs are out. I think he will end up in Milwaukee and they will run away with what will be an incredibly weak National League Central Division. I will admit I am not familiar with the Cards farm system and this will change if they have some MLB ready starters that can contribute in 2018.
kam3hameha
Are you serious? The Cubs don’t have a chance in 2018? Are you freaking insane?
fastpitchlife
Wow. You are obviously clueless with anything related MLB outside of Yankee Stadium
11Bravo
I’m a lifelong Brewers fan and I have no qualms telling everyone that the Cubs will still be the team to chase for the near foreseeable future. Brewers are closing the gap but the Cubs are still the team to beat in the Central
bws258
I rather re-sign Arrietta than overpay Darvish … same age, better track-record, better injury history (none)
Solaris601
Dodgers intend to reset the luxury tax this year, so it doesn’t make sense for that reason PLUS I’m sure they’ve still got a bad taste in their mouths from Darvish’s 2 nightmare starts in the WS. The Rangers have to ask themselves, “Is Darvish going to be the piece that enables us to leapfrog HOU?” That answer is clearly NO, so unless Yu’s price in dollars and years miraculously drops, they’re out.
CursedRangers
Darvish seems to be doing everything possible to give the Rangers a chance. Meeting with the GM. Eating dinner with different assistants. Etc… but they aren’t biting. Also, thought it was intriguing that Carlos Gomez rented a helicopter to chase down John Daniels for a in-person meeting. But the Rangers are tapped out
mcdusty31
That’s awesome…I can hardly afford to look at a helicopter
Michael0021
I don’t see Yu signing with Texas either but he lives here and has several dinners with this guy called Jon Daniels.
albearrrr
He actually had dinner with Jack Daniels
davelsu
Best days are behind him..health issues..would not back up the Brinks truck here!
xabial
Would you still be saying the same thing, if not for his WS?
padam
Agreed. Especially with the contracts they’re going to have down the road to maintain their core players. Heyward is already hurting them payroll wise.
mpantojas7
By the time we have to pay our big time players a bunch of money will be gone. Lester’s contract will be gone. Zo contract will be gone. Tv deal money in hand. They will be fine. Especially if it’s only a 4 year deal. We will have to wait and see tho
kbarr888
After 2018, Jason Heyward only has a partial no-trade clause and I’m suggesting that the Cubs will move him somewhere and pay down part of what’s left of his contract. That salary relief added to the salary relief mentioned above, should create a situation where they can be spenders again….. even after signing Darvish.
John peterson
Exactly. I honestly think if the nats don’t resign harper, he will be in a cubs uniform and i see them moving heyward out or to center, they will be going over the tax for sure next year, it’s just a matter of how much? Even if they pay half heywards salary, it would help for sure.
Hammmbone
Everyone is counting on that TV money. Early returns on the other teams that have started their own network haven’t been as lucrative as indicated. Moreover, these cable companies have existing channels that broadcast the games just fine. If they can’t find other programming it may be more difficult than the Cubs expect. It’s hard to predict how lucrative this network can be. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
Hammmbone
What makes you think ANYONE WANTS JASON HEYWARD???? LOLOLOLOL
Jkolti
Every top free agent has concerns. Arietta, JD, Hosmer, all have issues, but teams are willing to pay them and hope it isn’t a huge overpay. There’s no such thing as the perfect FA, and the closest we will probably ever see will be the two next year, and they will be getting massive amounts of money.
Crewfan620
That’s the battle with free agency. You’re paying for what a player has already done, not what they will do. But all of those guys will add value to their teams once signed. I just hope that the price is right which makes teams like the brewers more of a long shot. But you just never know
baseballpun
He signs with the Marlins. Heads explode.
Jkolti
No one would like jeter after that, if anyone still does now.
dust44
I still like jeter..
Wannabekillerb
I respect Jeter far more now than I did as an overrated Yankees SS. He’s made some tough decisions but they’ve been the right decisions.
Brian 2
Making right decisions =/= doing them/carrying them out the right way
mcdusty31
Overrated? Dude even if you’re not a fan of the Yankees, Derek Jeter was only “overrated” as he winded down but at that point they weren’t just gonna let their captain wear anything but pinstripes…your comment is not accurate
Bocephus
His comment is so wrong it will make your head spin. Jetes age 38 season 216 hits,.316 BA, .362 OBP, 32 Doubles,while playing 159. Then who can forget the horrible injury and he was only able to play 17 games in 2013 but rehabbed and managed to play 145 respectively..not up to his standards of course. With all his accomplishments and the way he represented the game some people will still spew that stuff.
Dad
Yes it is, he was over rated
kam3hameha
Dad?
iamcompuman2
Lol. DJ gave Stanton away to the Yanks for pennies compared to the demands from any other team. As a born Yankees fan I’m happy. But, we lost Castro in the cheap deal leaving a hole. I don’t know why the Yanks have such a vendetta against 2B. Letting Womack go, then Cano and now Castro? Yes, it was for GCS but now we’re going to groom another player. Thankfully it’s someone awesome like Torres. We still have issues in our rotation though. Whatever. I love my team but I’m tired of fighting over what missing piece there is every year. I guess being a Dolphin fan too has me conditioned to make excuses. Lol
Psychguy
Hope Cubs sign him and watch him implode in playoffs. For those who don’t remember… yea maybe he tipped his pitches, but he supposedly fixed that problem and was subsequently shelled when it mattered most.
ray_derek
As long as Milwaukee continues to not make the playoffs that sounds good to me.
Jack Taddy
What? Awww
beajd27
Was he tipping his pitches in the wild card game against the orioles a few years back as well?
gorav114
It didn’t matter with Joe Blanton on the mound for the O’s. Blanton surprised us all keeping the O’s in that game allowing them to win and advance.
etreuden
Joe Blanton has never played for the Orioles.
TheTrotsky
Joe Saunders*
alexgordonbeckham
He was tipping pitches in the World Series according to the Astros.
Wannabekillerb
He may have been tipping his pitches but it hasn’t been said enough that he had absolutely no control over his slider in either World Series game. The Astros were looking for fastballs all the way.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Well no one had control of their sliders in the WS. That said Darvish couldn’t locate a competitive fb or competitive cb. So you’re right in that front. They eliminated everything and sat fb. He couldn’t keep the Astros off balance. So regardless if he was tipping or not it had more to do with his inability to excute much of anything.
mshaf
First you have to get to the playoffs. If the Cubs do, I’m sure Lester and Hendricks are getting the ball before Darvish.
mike127
and maybe Quintana
jasonpen
And Quintana… Darvish as a 4 isn’t bad at all. The Cubs will have 4 number 2’s, all with ace upside.
zwmartin
Because…. he was tipping his pitches. Lol.
iamcompuman2
Fair point. Aside from being 31, maybe that’s the reason no one is jumping on him. The Yankees were right to offer him 2nd or 3rd position money and not ace money. Anyone who lands him (Milwaukee) will have a lot of overloaded cash to deal with (Tanaka).
milkman
please dont go to the didgers…..Yu is a dominant pitcher(in the reg season at least), dont understand all the hate
cman
Twins aren’t going to sign Darvish. That’s a pipe dream.
bigcubsfan
Sources reporting Darvish will sign with Cubs for 4 years, $90 million.
atlbraves2010
what sources?
bigcubsfan
Me. Just as reliable as the baseball guys saying Brewers were about to make a major trade a couple days ago.
bigcubsfan
ayy lmao
Hammmbone
Oops . That major trade happened and you now look foolish for thinking you know more than the people making the moves.
phantomofdb
Seems too low
mpantojas7
Lies lol
c1234
The trade speculation was yelich to the brewers and it is still relevant, also stop saying darvish going to cubs from “sources” first nobody believes you and it’s repetitive
ChiSoxCity
Your sources need to put the bong down.
mike127
Or he ought to just keep smoking it. Seems like reality is far out the window already.
bigcubsfan
What you think he will sign with the White Sox? [surprised emoji]
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
no way he gose for 4/90 he will get 5/125 minimum
ChiSoxCity
Come on man, why would Darvish accept a below-market contract? The Rangers, Brewers, Twins, Yankees and probably some unnamed team will give him more than that.
dbec72
I’d like that deal, but what sources? Sounds a little bit low.
c1234
I think darvish wants to go back to la
Sabean Wannabe
Hate to get off subject, but I wanted to post this question in an active post to hopefully get an answer. Its pertinent to FA signings/luxury tax issues, etc.
Say a team signs a player to the following;
• 1 year deal worth $3 million
• 2nd year team option of $13 million or $6 million buyout
• The player ends up with essentially a 1-yr $9 million or 2-yr $16 million deal
How much counts against the lux tax threshold in Year 1?
• Is it $3 million because that’s the amount for Year 1 and Year 2 is not guaranteed
• Is it $9 million because that’s the minimum to be paid out in total
• Is it $8 million because that’s the AAV if Year 2 is exercised (I doubt it’s this)
As a Giants fan I was thinking how they could get someone like Dyson while staying under the threshold (I was thinking this before the Jackson signing…consideration of Dyson is surely out at this point). I’m guessing it’s the second bullet point since “gaming the system” is discouraged.
Anyone know?
KD0067
I’m almost certain it’s the AAV of the total potential contract. Otherwise, teams would be using that left and right to their advantage to avoid going over the tax threshold.
xabial
That is correct. Arod’s $10 year $275M contract, counted $27.5M against the lux tax threshold every year, even though Arod only got paid $21M, final year.
275/10 = 27.5
largeunit
So why do teams even bother spreading the money around in that manner? Why not just pay out the $27.5 million each year of the contract?
Some of them get really silly. For instance, whenever I need a good laugh, I take a peek at Strasburg’s contract amount from year to year. It’s truly comical how the money is moved around, and the variations from year to year. Take a look if you want a good chuckle.
mcdusty31
Bobby Bonilla doesn’t think it’s silly
Tom
Teams spread the money around in different manners because sometimes the actual cash outlay is an issue. ARod’s deal was worth $27.5 AAV, but the Yankees frontloaded a big portion in order to pay less in his later years, when he was older and likely not producing as much. Some teams backload deals because they are anticipating higher revenues, either from new TV deals, relief from debt, etc, or relief from other contracts.
I don’t know exactly how Strasburg’s deal is structured, but it’s not the way it shows on baseball reference. Neither is Scherzer’s. They’re not getting $40M in any contract year. Scherzer’s deal is fairly simple…$210M paid out evenly over 14 years, or $15M annually…the first seven while on the team, and then $15M the following 7 years, deferred without interest. Strasburg’s deal is likely similar.
It’s only shown with great variations in order to account for all the money in the contract; it doesn’t really matter how much money is shown in each year.
Tom
If it wasn’t for the Madoff thing, the Mets probably would have made out better than Bonilla on the deal. Instead of handing him a check for $5.9M in 1999 they could have invested that money in the market, and likely would have generated an average return of around 5%-6% per year. That return with 10 years of pure growth would likely have worked out better for the Mets than Bonilla, had Wilpon not invested in all in a fictitious fund.
brucewayne
Because money is worth more today than it is in the future!
czontixhldr
Isn’t it only the AAV of the guaranteed money divided by the guaranteed years?
Cat Mando
All guaranteed money counts…salary, signing bonus, buy outs., In your scenario the only guarantee is 1 year $9mm
Article XXIII mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf
Sabean Wannabe
That’s what I was assuming. It would allow too much “creativity” to get around the intent of the rule. Then if the Year 2 option is picked up, the remaining contract amount would count against the threshold – $7 million.
Cat Mando
Article XXIII is a good read…explains it all without much legalese including the surcharge tax that many forget about.
MTM19
It would be $9 million because the $6 million buyout is guaranteed so that gets included. Player options are also included but in this example it’s a team option and both team options and vesting options are excluded for the luxury tax calculation. If the team option gets exercised then that gets treated as a 1 year deal for luxury tax purposes.
nashvillecardsfan
I’m also curious if incentives are included in AAV.
Cat Mando
nashvillecardsfan……bonuses that raise a players base salary the following year are different….
(4) Performance, Award and Other Bonuses
(a) Any amounts that are actually earned by a Player as Performance Bonuses, Award Bonuses or any other bonuses properly included in a Uniform Player’s Contract shall be included as part of the Player’s Salary in the Contract Year in which the service or performance giving rise to the Bonus was provided. Potential bonuses shall not be included in the AAV calculation made pursuant to Section E(2) above.
CBA link….mlbplayers.com/pdf9/5450407.pdf page 118
Tom
His AAV would be on the guaranteed amount of money in his contract, or $9M. If the option is to be picked up his AAV in the second year would be effected.
realist101
Almost certain it’s $9 million. Buyouts of team options get added into the AAV and spread over the guaranteed years of the contract. If the team picks up the team option year, then the tax hit for that year has a “credit” for the buyout. So, in this case, the tax hit in the 2nd year would be $7 million.
The only caveat is that there are some rules that contracts get treated differently if the amounts move up or down too much year-to-year, but I think that what you’ve written doesn’t trigger those rules.
Monkey’s Uncle
Yu have to admit, the Darvish drama has been one of the most interesting stories of the offseason so far, whether Yu like Darvish or not.
largeunit
I see what you did there…hilarious. But how has the Darvish “drama” been even remotely interesting? They’ve simply been repeating the same information for the past month+. Same speculation as far as the five or six teams, and that’s it. No new developments at all…nothing whatsoever. If you’ve experienced it in a different way, please do point out what I’m missing as far as any actual developments or anything even resembling something new. Thanks.
Bartman
Darvish will be a bust on a 4 or 5 year high $ contract. His best days are behind him. I would be surprised if he is .500 over the life of the contract – even if he goes to an above average offensive team. Arrieta is a much better choice, but I would not sign either for $20M/year or above. The sleeper still unsigned is Alex Cobb.
Wannabekillerb
I would argue that the sleeper is Lance Lynn. Cobb has never pitch 200 innings, last year was the first year he pitched 170+. Lynn has been more consistent and effective, he’s pitched 200+ twice and 170+ an additional 2 years. They both missed 2016 because of Tommy John and there’s not a significant age difference.
chgobangbang
I would bypass Darvish and JA and go 3 years 54 mil with either Lynn or Cobb . Lesser years than 5 or 6 years top 2 are seeking less risk . Why pay ace money when cubs don’t need ace
BackFlips1982
Still not sure why the Cardinals don’t throw an offer at Lynn.. He was there most consistent pitcher the past 4 years (except 2016 – TJ)
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
I don’t think Cobb is a sleeper. he will get a lot of $$ if he went for 3/38 he would be a sleeper but at 4/60 he’s market value and a big injury risk
milkman
I just got an update from MLB App that Yu is likely to sign by the end of the week…….cmon MLBTR
Tim Dierkes
C’mon what?
milkman
….nevermind….
largeunit
ooooo…milkman just got Debo’d by Tim…”WHAT CHAIN!?”
milkman
and the odd thing is…i somewhat enjoyed it…
mcdusty31
He’s not a big “information” kind of guy
kelbran28
Anyone else think the Cubs should take a flyer on Jose Bautista? One year low cost deal. With the question marks in the OF he could be a nice addition. Said he got his eyes checked and needed contacts.
chgobangbang
Nowhere for Bautista to play on cubs they already have a DH like OF er in schrwarber
One Fan
The Cubs have a ton of OF options amd Bautista stinks so no
takeyourbase
“!C’mon what?” is right. This article clearly says the same thing and was posted 50 minutes ago.
michaelw
Your right and.
He sign with Minn bank it.
YankeeMan3099
Yankees will sign Darvish just when everyone thought they were out on him, Cashman will steal Darvish wait and see.
John peterson
Possible but very unlikely, they want machado next year and they will have to go over the tax to do it and no one is taking ellsbury, so they are pretty much out of it, darvish is not signing for 15 mil or less.
c1234
Would be a heck of a team with darvish
ChiSoxCity
The Yankees are a disgrace.
mcdusty31
Cashman is literally going to have to steal him if they plan on staying under the tax threshold and something like that hasn’t happened since the railroads were being built 150 years ago
largeunit
I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if that were to occur, given the manner in which Cashman has been operating. He’s been making some very sly moves to upgrade the major league roster, while simultaneously managing to hold onto his top prospects in the process.
As a Red Sox fan, it makes me sick and envious, but as a baseball fan, it makes me very excited to see how the Yankees look, not only this season, but for years to come.
Again, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Darvish end up wearing pinstripes, and while the Sox sit back idly. They don’t have too many weaknesses on the roster, but a rotation upgrade would be just what the doctor ordered to put them in true contention with the Astros, and to a lesser degree, the Yankees.
As I previously stated, the Red Sox don’t have too many glaring weaknesses, but going into the off-season I thought that if they simply added a nice rotation piece (such as Darvish), and a middle of the order bat (such as Stanton), would absolutely put them over-the-top and right up there with the Astros.
This was my outlook after the Stanton trade, which again, would put them right up there with the elite, rather than merely a second tier, 1-B type of ball club:
*Sign Carlos Santana
(which obviously isn’t going to happen now…keep sitting on your hands, Dombrowski!!!)
*Sign Yu Darvish
(DO IT!…sneak in there, I know you can do it, for crying out loud!!)
*Dig in to further bolster the bullpen & bench, more specifically:
-sign Wade Davis but if not, re-up Addison Reed (AGAIN, Dombrowski sitting on his hands…isn’t going to happen)
-sign Eduardo Nunez
-acquire a productive 4th outfielder (Chris Young is a FA)
***So, all-in-all, the clock is ticking, the free agents are coming off the board (ever so slowly), big names have changed scenery (for relatively low costs when compared to prior years), and DOMBROWSKI HAS DONE NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO IMPROVE THIS BALL CLUB!!! Our only (re)signing has been for the middling Mitch GD Moreland, for Christ’s sake!!! DO SOMETHING, DAVE…DO SOMETHING..ANYTHING!!!
osfandan
Any chance that the pitch clock has affected the market on Darvish and Arrieta? Darvish especially. He averaged over 26 seconds in between pitches last year, he’s going to have to cut that down to 20 seconds at a minimum. That’s significant change to the flow of his game.
Monkey’s Uncle
I doubt it, but yours is still a very interesting and original thought.
osfandan
Thank you
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
interesting take big I highly doubt it has any impact
osfandan
I do too….but then again would you easily commit 120M+ to a guy who got shelled twice in the WS and is going to have to cut his time between pitches down over 20% of his norm? I wouldn’t.
largeunit
Stop tge pressesfor our hourly Yu Darvish report to give us no new material whatsoever.
It is laughable to see the terms “update” and “developments” associated with his situation because there is a complete lack of new information.
I can’t remember the last time that we have been presented with any actual new developments, and I’ll be shocked when we are. When he finally does sign, all of us faithful MLBTR readers are going to be just as relieved as Darvish himself, his representation, and the club he eventually signs with.
ChiSoxCity
Looks like MLB took a page out of LeBron’s book.
michaelw
If Minn signs him it be 5/140
If Cubs sign him it 5/135 with a 5th year mult option n 10m buy out.
ASapsFables
The Cubs appear to be favoring Yu Darvish among the top-4 free agent starting pitchers and for good reason.
1-Jake Arrieta, who is 5+ months older than Yu Darvish and also a Scott Boras client, was a pitcher who was seeking a 7-year deal this offseason and also requested that in extension talks with the Cubs prior to becoming a FA. He was looking to match or exceed the deal given to rotation mate Jon Lester during the 2014 offseason.
2-Arrieta has also seen a significant drop in his pitch velocity since his historic 2015 Cy Young Award season. His SO/9 peaked in 2014 and 2015 while his H/9 were also career bests in 2014-2016. Meanwhile, Darvish had better luck approaching his career numbers in those categories in 2017, especially his 11.1 SO ratio with the Dodgers to finish the year.
3-Unlike Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn and Arrieta, Darvish has no qualifying offer stigma attached to him as a FA. While the Cubs are the one team that would not forfeit a draft pick if they sign him they still stand to lose one if another club does.
4-It’s been widely reported that Darvish was tipping his pitches to the Astros in the World Series. That is a fixable problem. Apparently he wasn’t doing that in the NLDS versus the Diamondback or in the NLCS against the Cubs where he dominated earlier in the 2017 postseason.
RyanR
What wasn’t widely reported is that before Yu was traded to the Dodgers he had a bad game and they said he was tipping his pitches in that one as well. So the WS wasn’t the first time. I’m sure he will work it out.
Rallyshirt
If the Cubs want him it would’ve happened a month ago.
jibes717
Minnesota will not spend the 150mil plus to sign Darvish. That is pretty much a given.. Ervin Santana with his 5/68 is easily the biggest in club history. Pohlad is not known for spending big on FA’s and payroll. The club is merely doing their best to motivate interest from its fans. I believe the Cubs will get him, but the biggest push will be coming from the Angels. The Twins will not getting any of Darvish/Arietta/Cobb/Lynn. Expect someone more like Tillman.
Lance
Yu is NOT an ace. Great stuff but just very inconsistent. Unless he comes down in years and money….gotta let him go.
bigdaddyhacks
Mariners out of nowhere….
madmanTX
The Phillies are like John Candy’s character in Planes, Trains and Automobiles: “No, we don’t have a five year deal, Mr Darvish, but we have $2 and a Casio watch.”
bigdaddyhacks
I died. Lolol well played.
Senioreditor
In the end I see him staying in LA. I think he has unfinished business there.
shalzuse
Dodgers. 5 yr 138 ml.2nd yr O/u.
Senioreditor
I’m guessing it’s more like 5/125, deferring alot to years 3-5 with an opt-out after 2.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
The deferrals aren’t the problem. They’ve never been the problem.
baseballpun
Assuming the Phils make a big play (quite possibly a successful one) for Machado or Harper next off-season, I’m a little curious as to what their strategy would be in loading up on 2-3 year, high AAV deals. I get the Santana signing as a signal that they’re ready to start contending and I assume they expect to make a leap this season and be in the playoff mix within 2-3 years, but how does signing short-term contracts fit into that? Just makes them a legitimate landing spot for FAs when they’re truly ready to go for a title?
ChiSoxCity
If the Phillies are smart, they’ll wait on Trout to reach free agency. He’s from the area (South Jersey) and might take less than $500MM to go home.
oldleftylong
Not a chance. It’s all about the $$$$$$$.
Cat Mando
oldleftylong…………..
And the Phillies have plenty as well as the appeal playing for the “home” team.
wild05fan
Cubs or Dodgers. I’d be surprised if it’s anybody else.
Goose
Assuming the salary demands are not insane, like 25 – 30 million a year the Phillies should take a shot at Darvish or Arrietta. You add a quality veteran behind Nola and they may make a serious run next year.
Coast1
Andy MacPhail views signing pitchers in their 30s to long term deals as chasing unicorns (Google it). He recognizes that many pitchers aren’t effective past age 32 or 33 and doesn’t want to pay for those years. The problem isn’t the salary. As they showed with Carlos Santana and Tommy Hunter the Phillies will pay above market.
The problem is the years. If Darvish would take 3 years/$81 million the Phillies would pay that, but won’t give 5 years/$120 million. MacPhail just won’t pay for a year he thinks the player might not be any good. He doesn’t like “paying for past performance.”
garywang00
He is not going to the brewers or twins. Knowing him personally and being around Japanese baseball for decades, good players don’t come here to play for small market, rebuilding or team not intended to win WS anytime soon. they want to make names for themselves and win. Cubs Yankees or the Astros
venom
Please Yankees don’t sign him! If you want another starter promote Adams or Sheffield!
feetscubs
He’s going to the Cubs, by Saturday night, they need him, money isn’t terrible, I love Arieta but his numbers are trending down, no history of injuries is a concern too, especially with dips in velocity, Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, and Chatwood will be deepest rotation in baseball, they will need it to beat The Nationals.
ReverieDays
They already beat the Nationals without it once before.
Hammmbone
There was a lot of luck involved there my friend. Every bounce went their way. As such, it still went 5 games.
feetscubs
No, they beat Dusty Bakers mismanaged Nationals, Contract years for Harper, Murphy, and Gio, full year of Tre Turner, and Adam Eaton, dangerous team
BennyTheBoss
The Cubs don’t have any depth if there’s an injury, and trust me: someone will miss a large portion of the year to injury. They aren’t the deepest rotation.
ChiSoxCity
hate-hate-hate!
michaelw
So says the the Cub troll hater. Cubs have a lot of dept. mult players can play anywhere. We sure don’t need to pull someone who’s unproven from aaa. Being a hater and jelouse is no way to go through life son. Wishful thinking to help you sleep maybe.
The great physic speaks pssssf
Hammmbone
I think he was talking about pitching depth. A starter is needed. The bullpen was addressed, but counting on Morrow to close may not be their best option. Set-up guys don’t necessarily become good closers. Morrow looked great in LA, but there was no pressure because Jansen was the man. 8th inning outs are not 9th inning outs. Realistically signing a starter would help bolster their bullpen by sending Montgomery back to the pen.
feetscubs
The Cubs pen is definitely better, losing Wade is rough, but a lot of innings with arm/elbow issues 2 years ago, If Theo needs a lights out closer by all star break he will flip Russell, Almora, or Happ for someone, a committee situation is what I see, probably Edwards if he can lose the crybaby attitude
BackFlips1982
There is some truth to this, although I feel Montgomery would be just fine as a 5th starter. The issue for the Cubs, unlike the past 3 years, is that they don’t have the bullets to fire if they need to add at trade deadline. Not much to offer, unless they are willing to offer Russell or Schwarber.
Hammmbone
Keep Russell, move Schwarber he has AL DH written all over him.
michaelw
Nations over rated n still haven’t done $”hit. Just like last year. Last call for Washington 2018
Hammmbone
I think you need to look at Darvish’s numbers, they are trending down as well. As a matter of fact his ERA has gone up every year since 2013 and he has only won over 15 games once. Plus he has never, ever had the type of run Arrieta had for a two year stretch and has never won a Cy Young. Those of you who think Darvish is better than Arrieta are sadly mistaken.
BennyTheBoss
If the Cubs want to overpay for an overrated aging starter, go for it. They’ll regret it two years in.
michaelw
Sounds like your worried. I love how all the hate comes out. Of course if it was your team you be happy. Who’s your team? Why do you care even. Not your money or your team. Keep moving nothing for you here. Door is to the right.
BackFlips1982
It’s well documented that he was tipping pitches. I don’t think teams are too concerned, but it could have cost him some money.
Voice of Reason
Darvish to the Cubs. Book it.
Knight
I keep reading that the rangers are still in the mix, is that because he wants to stay there? I haven’t heard anything on them making an offer. I think yu needs to move on from Texas to a team who actually wants him.
Z-A 2
Yu is not a bad option depending on how much it will cost for 2 or 2 + 1 team option. Maybe they get Texas to pay for Cole to return as well. As long as they have enough money left to make a run at one or both Harper/Machado I am all for it. the 20M spent on Santana is puzzling to me. They have similar skilled players at 1B/OF in Rys and TJ. Unless they have designs of using one or both in a trade.
doug4848
Angels are the Darkhorse they will go 5 year on him if look a the contracts the angels do five year deals Wilson was a five-year deal Hamilton was a five-year deal
Z-A 2
Anyone from Texas they give a bloated contract to? Lol
rudestdude
Now they need to sign Mike Moustakas for 3rd base. What are the chances they sign Moustakas?