We have already looked at the record-setting pre-arbitration and mid-arbitration extensions. Today, we’ll turn to those contracts that were struck with players who had already reached their final season of team control, as well as those that were agreed upon with veterans who had already moved past six years of MLB service (even if they had multiple contract years remaining at the time of the deal). You can explore more contracts beyond those we’ve covered with MLBTR’s Extension Tracker.
Biggest Contract, 5+ Service Class
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 7 years, $215MM (plus opt-out)
If you’ve read through the prior two posts in this series, the gulf between position-player and pitching contracts really stands out. But hurlers close the gap with vigor once they drawn near to (or reach) the open market. Kershaw’s deal is the largest, understandably, but hardly the only example of a quality starter getting something in the realm of open-market money when entering or in the midst of their final season of team control. Stephen Strasburg ($175MM), Rick Porcello ($82.5MM), and Danny Duffy ($65MM) have all inked such deals in recent years, with Cole Hamels ($144MM) and Homer Bailey ($105MM) scoring notable prior contracts.
Biggest Contract, 5+ Service Class Position Player
Matt Kemp, Dodgers: 8 years, $160MM
Interestingly, it has been quite some time since we’ve seen a 5+ service-class position player land a monster contract. Brett Gardner’s $52MM deal in early 2014 was the most notable since Andre Ethier ($85MM) and Miguel Montero ($60MM) in 2012. For really significant slugger contracts, you have to go back another year, when Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez ($154MM) got big bucks to forego the possibility of yet greater riches in free agency. At the time of his deal, Kemp was a 27-year-old who had just turned in an MVP-caliber campaign. This contract provides a notable marker for some high-quality players currently nearing free agency, should they agree to engage in talks.
Biggest Contract, 6+ Veteran
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 8 years, $248MM (plus two options)
In some regards, it’s not worthy considering veterans with over six years of service separately from 5+ players that are still in arbitration. Many (but not all) of the former group are, like the latter, just one season away from free agency. That said, there are some general differences — in particular, all highly-paid 6+ players have already sold at least one would-be free agent season — so we’ll break them out. Age is increasingly a factor at this point, though some 6+ players that agreed to earlier-career extensions have still wrangled new deals at young ages. For instance, Joe Mauer’s $184MM contract was signed before his age-27 season. The number of years on the odometer did not dissuade Detroit from re-upping Cabrera two seasons before his existing contract was set to run out. Questionable at the time, that decision is looking all the more troublesome after Cabrera stumbled in 2017. Other major contracts from this bucket include David Wright (link), Ryan Zimmerman (link), and Dustin Pedroia (link).
Biggest Contract, 6+ Veteran Pitcher
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 5 years, $140MM (plus option)
As noted in our mid-arb post, JV and Felix Hernandez (link) followed parallel paths in market-pacing salaries in each of their two extension situations. Other major 6+ pitching extensions include Johan Santana (link), CC Sabathia (link), and Matt Cain (link). While these contracts show that veteran pitchers nearing free agency can still cash in even as they build up mileage on their arms, age and wear-and-tear factor all the more for hurlers. Contract length, then, has proven somewhat harder to achieve. Cabrera, Mauer, Wright, Zimmerman, and Wright all secured eight-year guarantees, while all the pitchers just named settled for five or six-year terms.
dfinmozarks
Next year Kershaw will be testing FA. I’m doubting he will be offered a repeat of his last contract. The Dodgers have had to eat too much on Kemp and Adrian recently. Not to say some other team won’t make him a massive offer like Houston did with Verlander.
Kenleyfornia74
You really think Kemp has any impact on Kershaw? lol.
Padres Armchair GM
In a way he does and doesnt.
The kemp trade was to get under the tax line and reset the penalty.
The dodgers will offer kershaw a pretty hefty contract next off season.
But, because of that and kemps contract they may not be able to lock up puig next offseason to a huge contract unless he’s willing to play the money shuffle game.
It affects kershaw cause unless kershaw takes a hometown price it really affects their spending elsewhere to improve the team next offseason going forward.
Tom
This makes no sense as how the Kemp contract effects Kershaw. The Dodgers made the deal with the Braves specifically to get out from under the tax this year, and they’ll probably go over it again starting next season. So that doens’t effect a new Kershaw deal. The only way Kemp’s deal would effect it would be if the Dodgers become gun-shy about signing a mega contract that might come back to bite them later.
In any case, it’s doubtful Kershaw leaves LA, and they end up paying him significant money—5yrs/$200m?—to stay.
One Fan
40 million to stay. Lol. Let him walk
tdaly
What offer did Houston make?
MaverickDodger
I still argue with my friend who can’t tell the difference between a trade and a free agent signing. I’m assuming that’s what’s happening here as well
BlueSkyLA
It’s worth noting that if Kershaw opts out he leaves around $70m on the table for 2019-20, his age 31-32 seasons, meaning he’d be expecting at least that much plus whatever he could get for more years. It’s difficult to imagine him getting more than $35m per for his 33+ year seasons. The Dodgers could have a real interest in extending him for say three additional years at a lower base salary plus performance bonuses. This would have the impact of lowering their AAV commitment, with implications for the luxury tax.
DannyQ3913
Phillies
outinleftfield
It’s not about AAV, it’s about guaranteed dollars. He will get at least a 5 year deal for at least $150 million. More than double the $70 million left on his deal.
Tom
You really think Kershaw can’t get $70M+ on the open market? Kershaw is likely to get a higher AAV than he has now (think $38M-$40M probably), and for at least another 5 years.
Would it be a risky contract? Absolutely. But this is also the best pitcher in the game, and well on his way to being one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. Someone will pay him a fortune, and it likely will be the Dodgers.
No way does he take a 3 year extension and lower his AAV. What are you thinking? $30M per year? $27M? on the extension. Do the math. 3yrs at $90M, plus 2 years at $70M, and you’re talking 5 years/$160M. A 30 year old Kershaw would top that in his sleep, and probably by $50M or more.
bucketbrew35
Greatest regular season pitcher in a good long while. But playoffs, sadly one of the worst.
Tom
The idea that Kershaw is horrible in October is kind of overblown. Other than getting torched by St. Louis in back to back LCS’s, he hasn’t been awful. He’s been mediocre, which is a far cry from his regular season performance.
And even with that history, how many teams would be hesitant to give him the ball in a game 7 scenario?
One Fan
Kemps contract has absolutely no impact on what they do with Kershaw. They are willing to go over the luxury cap next year again now that they reset the competitive tax threshold.
smith_matd
Kemp didn’t win the MVP in ‘11 even if he basically did because of Braun’s positive PED test
Jeff Todd
Whoops, fixed that.