A look around the Central divisions…
- The Brewers are loaded in the outfield in the wake of this week’s Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich acquisitions, and the club could mitigate the logjam by dealing one of its top trade chips, Domingo Santana. Doing so would presumably allow the Brewers to address their shaky rotation. With that in mind, the Brewers and starter-rich Indians seem like logical trade partners, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com observes. A deal centering on Santana and Indians righty Danny Salazar would make sense for both clubs, Hoynes opines, and Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com tweets that Milwaukee has shown interest in Salazar this offseason. The hard-throwing Salazar brings the more impressive big league track record of the two players, though age (25 to 28), team control (four years to three) and 2017 performance are all on Santana’s side.
- Milwaukee could also take from its outfield surplus by occasionally playing Ryan Braun at first base. Braun, for his part, is open to giving first a try in spring training, general manager David Stearns told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com and other reporters Friday. The 34-year-old hasn’t lined up in the infield since his rookie year, 2007, when he played 112 games at third base. Nevertheless, with injuries having limited Braun to 104 games last year, spending some time at first could be beneficial to his health, McCalvy notes. The Brewers already have a pair of viable first basemen in Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar, but it seems a healthy Braun would at least be an offensive upgrade over Aguilar – a fellow righty-swinger whose 2017 production plummeted after the All-Star break.
- Pirates left-hander Nik Turley received an 80-game suspension Saturday after testing positive for Ipamorelin, a performance-enhancing drug. The 28-year-old will go on the restricted list, thus opening up a spot on the Pirates’ 40-man roster (which was at capacity before his ban). Turley is in his first offseason with the Pirates, who claimed him off waivers from the Twins in November. The former Yankees prospect made his big league debut with Minnesota last season and struggled across 10 appearances (11.21 ERA, 6.62 K/9 and 4.08 BB/9 in 17 2/3 innings).
Milwaukee doesn’t need a starter that had 100 innings of over 4 ERA last year. Our internal candidates can to that or better.
Salazar has a lot more upside though.
I agree that he has more upside, but not at the cost of a player at Santana’s level. I would package him for Archer before Salazar.
I would package him for kershaw before Salazar too. That’s not what’s being discussed.
What could you possibly give up for Archer? It would decimate everything the Brewers are doing. Archer has the most friendly club contract of all time. He might as well be playing for free. Tampa won’t give that up for anything shy of the entire farm. Archer on another team would post a low 3 ERA: Cash uses him wrong forcing him to pitch 120+ most games.
You are aware that Archer had an ERA over 4 the last 2 seasons. Salazar has top of the rotation stuff. Rays want return in line with an ace, which Archer has not.been the last two seasons meaning it will take a lot more than Santana. Indians on the other hand have a big need for a RH power bat and an even swap makes sense.
who are you reasonably expecting to outperform danny salazar? davies and anderson would be logical choices, but even anderson is most likely due for somewhat of a regression with an unstainable babip, and left on base percentage last year. no one knows when jimmy nelson will be back, or even how effective he will be after injury. hader could be stretched out, but to bank on him to out perform salazr in the rotation next year seems a bit of a stretch. woodruff could also earn a starting spot, but again, it would be a stretch to expect him to outperform salazar. and no one would argue Suter, Chacin, or Gallardo is a better option than Salazar. even if you think Davies or Anderson will outperform him, he’s still at minimum an improvement over whoever else is behind them, and gives you another quality option when Nelson is back. Plus Salazar has more upside than Davies, Anderson and better pure stuff than Nelson.
I really like the 2015 Version but we need someone who can pitch more than 137 (‘16) and 101 (‘17) innings.
i get where you’re coming from. but i feel the brewers are in need of arm, especially a cost controlled one like Danny Salazar, who has ace upside. Yes, he comes with his warts. but thats what makes him obtainable. he’s got stuff as good, if not better than archer, and you won’t pay the Archer price bc of the injury history, which will keep the farm in tact to graduate more cost controlled help, or obtain necessary help at the deadline. i certainly see the risks, but get the guy with Derek Johnson in his age 28 season and he could blossom. i feel like it’d be a better alternative to signing Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn (unless anyone of them will take more of a bargain bin deal)
And who said Grunts are dumb?
haha well i certainly still have my mouth-breathing moments
Hader. But I’m torn on that because he was a stud coming out of the pen fulfilling that Andrew Miller role. Personally I want them to keep them Santana and flip Thames or Broxton for ‘pen help and have Hader in the rotation.
i can see why you’re torn. its always a risk taking a player like hader out of a role where he’s succeeded. but i think its probably where you guys get the most value, so i’d take the risk. if he can take the workload, i love the upside. broxton to SFG for hunter strickland might be a move that works for everyone
I would do Broxton for Strickland in a heartbeat.
they might prefer phillips, or want an arm coming back since strickland doesn’t reach arbitration until next year. would you be willing to send houser, ponce or pennington back to get the deal done as well?
Pirates even manage to get out of paying minor league players they claim.
You look at his numbers, and he wasn’t exactly getting his money’s worth for that stuff.
Santana for Salazar would be quite an interesting deal. Salazar is unreal when he’s dialed in, a change of scenery might be what he needs. Is Santana the real deal?
He had quite the year last year. His defense is suspect, but he’s a very solid hitter and still young.
his d would be good in left but he could/should hit .270/.350/.490 with 30hrs if he is in the lineup everyday and that would be below what he did last year.
If I were the Indians, I’d take the chance on that deal. Salazar is electric but equally erratic. Could be a win win for both teams though
I would consider a Kipnis for Santana deal. Tribe gets salary relief and an OF, Brewers get an upgrade at 2B.
Brewers would never do that Kipnis had a terrible year last year and Santana had a great one Brewers would need to also receive a mid range prospect or 2
Santana has had one good year. Kipnis several. If necessary, Tribe could throw in Merritt.
I personally think Kipnis is going to bounce back as he does have a solid history of success I just don’t think the front office wants Kipnis straight up for Santana also the Brewers prefer Salazar for Santana. We will see.
Brewers would definitely not do that. They’re not gonna trade in their best trade chip for Kipnis with his injuries/age etc. They’d rather trade for pitching and sign Neil Walker I’m sure.
Kipnis really doesn’t have much trade value at all. From the sounds of it they have been trying to dump his salary for awhile with no takers. The Mets were rumored to be close on Kipnis and their farm is terrible so that should tell you what his value is.
No way Kipnis for Santana straight up. People keep saying he had “one good year”. And his one good year resulted of him being a starter. Kid played in 71 games in 2016. 151 games in 2017. He has tremendous upside.
if Kipnis had a better contract, and was a couple years younger, than you’ve got a deal. but that’s not the case. Kipnis might not be worth his contract, whereas Santana has 4 years of control, and may have not even hit his ceiling yet since he just turned 25. he may have ran a high BABIP last year, but his exit velocity is great, so i feel high BABIP’s are more sustainable with his profile. the fairest deal for both sides is a Salazar for Santana swap, with either side (most likely the crew since pitching is going for more in today’s market) adding a piece
If I was Antonetti I’d offer Salazar AND Kipnis for Santana. Tribe really has no flexibility to address any other needs in free agency unless they find a taker for Kipnis.
That’s an awful trade for the Indians. If they do trade for Santana it would be Salazar and a lower tier prospect, similar to the one they sent to the Mets for Bruce last year
If the Tribe wanted to include Kipnis, the Brewers would likely add super utility guy Hernan Perez or erstwhile 2b Jonathan Villar to the deal and maybe even add a mid level pitching prospect like Cody Ponce.
Brewers get:
Salazar
Kipnis
Indians get:.
Santana
Villar or Perez
Ponce
Helps both teams
lol why would the brewers do this? santana can fetch one heck of a starter.
Salazar is one heck of a starter…
Because Salazar is better then most of the starters on the Brewers now
Maybe Broxton for Kipnis straight up but def. not for Santana and Kipnis’ salary.
I’m a fan of kipnis but that’s an awful deal
They keep trying to say brewers will trade there outfielders i doubt it. If anything move braun to first and trade thames for a bullpen arm. Braun is better than both first base options. I’d trade broxton and thames for some kind if pitching but thats about it.
Braun is going to get some time at 1st in spring but they aren’t going to play him full time at first he will be platooned with Thames and play half the time against right handers in left with Santana playing in left against lefties and half of righties. Broxton is gone probably for a back end starter or some low end prospects unless the brewers include Phillips.
This. The OF would be from left to right, Santana, Yelich, and Cain. 4th OFer would be Phillips with Braun and Thames platooning at 1B and Braun filling in the OF as needed. Broxton gone for a reliever or a couple of prospects. Problem solved! Now let’s get an ace and a 2B and we can start printing out playoff tickets!
Why would Cain be in Right? Yelich is much better in Left. Yelich, Cain, Santana makes far more sense.
Yelich is LF, he won the gold glove there
Yelich and Cain will be cf and rf I don’t know which one is which but Braun can’t play rf he can barely play lf. maybe on days when Santana plays they may do lf and cf but Santana is more suited to lf.
Out of the 3 the weakest defender is by far Santana. He looked lost out there in RF at times last year. He’ll have an easier adjustment going to LF. The transition to RF would be a lot easier for either Cain or Yelich.
No way I’m giving up Salazar for Santana. Try starting with Phillips and add another 2 prospects
Well the Brewers aren’t going to do that. The thing is Salazar for Santana is close but I doubt Cleveland wants to loose any pitching. There is some talk of doing a 3 team trade with Detroit where Clevland gets Santana Milwaukee gets Fulmer and both the Brewers and Cleveland send prospects to Detroit.
Do have a source for that? I haven’t seen that anywhere
I found it on a brewers fan forum a guy their linked it to a Detroit fan forum… It’s by no means from anyone credible but it’s an interesting idea, it actually makes alot of sense.
Yeah, I like the idea! Thanks for the update
So literally nothing saying that, good.
Santana for Salazar is not even
You’re right, who else is in the deal with Santana?
The bottom line is the Brewers are not finished and will make further moves to cement themselves as the division’s elite team. This Brewers team will win the division by a large margin over the Cardinals.
This could need to be screen-capped or bookmarked.
I so wish you were right. This team (post OF acquisitions but pre SP acquisition) is maybe 83-84 wins.
Brewers projected at 81 before the outfield acquisitions so 83 post Cain and Yelich seems low more like 87-88 since both are about 3-4 win upgrades
@ scots win projections don’t work like that. yes, yelich and cain are big upgrades to the brewers outfield. but since they’re displacing players who didn’t exactly have negative values, you don’t just automatically add 3.5 projected WAR for Cain and 4.5 for Yelich. you have to adjust for the other players lost playing time, as well as a lot of other factors that i won’t get into for sake of writing a long post.
this certainly raises the brewer’s floor, since they now have pushed other solid players to part time roles, and have options to add a starter. however, their rotation is still too weak at the moment to project at 87 or 88 wins
another site went into great detail about the war upgrade between cf and rf before the deals brewers projected just above 2war now they are at 8war with Cain and Yelich so an increase of about 6 war which is what I said.
i’d like to see what you’re basing your projections on. steamer is very sheepish on the brewers, even with the yelich trade and cain signing. ZIPS is higher, but still not 87 or 88. I’m not saying ZIPS or steamer is right (personally i’d take the over on steamer for them 10 times out of 10), but there are a lot of question marks, hence why the systems aren’t bullish. i’m not by any means one of those people who think projections definitively translate to on the field success, but seeing as you’re the one who cited projections in the first place, its left me pretty curious
reviewingthebrew.com/2017/12/29/milwaukee-brewers-…
Zips had the Brewers between 80-85 before the Yelich and Cain acquisitions. Yelich is projected at 4.5 WAR and Cain at 3.5 that moves the projections up to 84-89 since they are worth 4-5WAR more than Broxton and Santana.
before the trade and signing fangraphs (using ZIPS projections) had them at 30.9 WAR. that’s not even an 80 win team. i’m not saying the brewers weren’t going to win 80 games, but the link you showed provided a much rosier view than the people at fangraphs, who have no vested interest in spinning things positively or negatively when assessing a team. i tend to avoid websites like the link you provided (and as a cubs fans there are a metric sh!ton) bc they try to put a more positive spin where their team is concerned.
fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-milwauke…
Yeah it’s definitely a bullish take but as a Brewers fan I tend to agree with their take but we will see. the projections don’t really matter until the FA dust settles. But the way thing are going I think the projections will have the Cubs and Brewers fairly close with STL in a close third depending on who signs where.
What took you so long? Took almost an hour for one of the idiotic yankee addiction posts to shed their knowledge on us all. Oh what shall your posts say when the Cubs are in first place by 5 games on July 1st????
well, to support your narrative of “the brewers cementing themselves as the divisions elite team” they’re somehow going to have to add a TOR starter, at least another MOR starter, a 3-4 WAR position player capable of manning 2nd or catcher, and at least another proven, quality bullpen piece or 2 since bullpens are the most volatile asset in baseball ( preferably an elite reliever since that’s what we’re going for). That’s what its going to take for them to be elite.
So let’s make them elite!
add one of Darvish, Fulmer, or Archer
then one of Arrieta, Duffy, Cobb, or Lynn
lets try Jt Realmuto here
then finish it off with Brad Hand, or maybe Greg Holland on the lower end
Now that’s definitely within the realm of possibilities, but is it likely? they would have to give up a good portion of their farm if they wanted to trade for the majority of those aforementioned players. if they wanted to break the bank, then they’d need to be certain the pitchers would age well, which is suspect at best for pitchers on the wrong side of 30, and could be potentially suicide for the small market brewers who need to hit on those deals. they could always go with some combination of signing and trades, but that really narrows their window. however, if they feel this is the time the cubs and cards are most vulnerable, then maybe they should try this out.
With all of that said, this goes to show they still have a long ways to go before they’re elite. they’ve got the makings of a very competitive club, and it will be fun to see how things shake out
I have a question. If Santana is so great, then why did the Brewers go out and get 2 new outfielders?
Thats a great question and I have no idea. I really like Santana the guy hit .278/.371/.505 with 30 hrs. I guess Brewers want to sell high or they are trying to push Braun to 1st and go with Santana in left eventually.
Because why wouldn’t they? Cain is an upgrade in CF and Yelich is a cost controlled young OF who the Brewers, like many teams, benefit by having. The market is favorable to them and they did what they were supposed. That’s just a terrible question to ask. Why would you try to upgrade your team? Why would you try to significantly upgrade your defense and supplement a lineup that had way to many Ks? I’m not trying to be a dbag, but that sounds like an elementary school question. Obtaining both also gives them flexibility to use their depth to address areas of need. Where they supposed to wait out the Darvish market and not upgrade?
Because losing what we lost for Yelich does nothing. I think Brinson will put up Yelich numbers in a couple years if that and Yelich is a few years older than Brinson so it makes sense… getting what Brinson’s numbers most likely will pan out to be now and at a very nice price over the next 5 years. Thus leaves us with Santana who is a great trade chip in himself with club control for 4 more years and Cain on for 5. Without having to deplete our Farm system, we can get a 1-2 type top of the rotation guy and be in a great spot to Win now and in the future with our farm intact. It’s all about player control and bottom line what we thought Brinson would be. All great moves. I’m excited to see what SP we bring in.
We always have to remember this is Baseball so anything can happen. Brinson may be better than we thought or could be a disappointment.
In Stearns We Trust
@ brewcity i was wondering if you were suggesting the brewers trade santana for a 1 or 2, or that these current moves opened up the opportunity to sign a 1 or 2 (darvish/arrieta) without depleting your farm. though i’m more bullish on santana then a lot of people, if you want to trade for a Fulmer or Archer, you’re going to have to add significantly more than Santana
I think it makes us a team a FA starter would want to go to. However Darvish/Arrieta I personally wouldn’t want either. Arrieta is going to expect too much money for what he is worth. Not to mention his age. We don’t need another Matt Garza contract. Which is what I see happening if we were to sign Arrieta. Darvish would just be too much money and would restrict us. I think our best bet is a trade. Find a team needing OF help and offer Santana, Broxton or Phillips, and a mid tier prospect. I think that gets a deal done. That’d be 2 major league ready players and a decent prospect. I don’t see Stearns depleting our Farm much more than what he has for any deal.
Because outfielders were the best thing available and they knew they’d be able to trade later. If there were an infield version of Lorenzo Cain or Christian Yelich I’m sure the Brewers would have jumped all over that.
But since all the available infielders are mediocre this year, they went a different route.
Cuz Santana can only play one position and not all 3 positions in the outfield at the same time??
I see Yelich as LF as Braun hasn’t put a full season together since he doped. I see Cain as CF. I would love to keep Santana in RF as it would complete the OF. We need a starting pitcher though. Somethings probably gotta give as there hasn’t been a top pitcher signed as they want too much $$. I’m fine with our 2B options on hand. Wouldn’t mind getting Lucroy back behind the plate though too.
Wasn’t Turley a rule 5 pick
A little history…
The original framework of a deal was discussed over two weeks ago. The deal had BOTH team’s # 1 overall prospect (MLB’s: mejia @ #11, Brinson @ #21) being switched.. Due to the significant value advantage of a catcher over an outfielder & their ratings, the Indians would add Jason Kipnis and either Danny Salazar or Mike Clevinger. The Brewers would add Josh Hader AND their Competitive Lottery Pick in the Rule IV draft.
Easily, Clevinger or Salazar >> Hader
………………………………………………..Mejia >> Brinson
Kipnis was added as salary relief to compensate the Indians for the difference in talent. Many brewer fans lost perspective with their own prospects and players.. choosing to believe Josh Hader is better than both Salazar and Clevinger combined. This killed this potential deal outright. One brewer fan even went so far as to claim Hader would be traded one for one to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer..
Completely Unrealistic..
When Brinson was traded just recently and the talk shifted to Domingo Santana.. both Clevinger and Salazar came off the table.. …
and that’s where we are now..
sources? very interesting claims nonetheless
Everything you claim is ‘completely unrealistic…’
open 40 man roster spot? someone gonna be traded by the bucs soon. get some prospects and a wal mart gift card…
I hope they hang onto Santana and instead add a starter through FA.
Unless Santana can be a headliner for an ace, I don’t think its worth trading him. The OF depth is an OK thing to have. Plus Braun, Cain and Thames all have injury history and are aging. There is a good chance one of them will be on the DL in the first half of the season. In my opinion, the Brewers should trade Broxton + for a bullpen arm and/or sign cobb/lynn. Then see how the first half of the season goes. Is Braun at 1B a successful experiment? Do the players who had an increase in production last year (Shaw, Santana, Anderson, Knebel) maintain their production? Does Nelson have a successful recovery? Maybe Villar bounced back after a terrible season. If all/most goes well, then make a push at the trade deadline for an Ace/2B/C. There are so many unanswered questions at the moment to sell the farm. Plus, the Brewers have many years of control over the core of their roster. Just my 2 cents. I do enjoy the aggressiveness of the FO, but there are a lot of things that need to happen before the Brewers are a legitimate WS threat.
well informed comment. though i don’t think santana alone gets you an ace. ray and/or ortiz would have to be included. the asking price for Fulmer and Archer are ridiculous right now. though i love their cost control, i honestly don’t feel safe calling either of them aces at this point
I hope the Brewers keep Santana and sign a player like Lynn for a 3rd starter role. Keep flexible with Hader, perhaps in multiple inning RP role initially then build up innings if needed later in the rotation. Bullpen upgrade by dealing Broxton makes sense and Phillips still has option years left so good depth piece.
Yup. This is what they should do. They won’t get as much for Santana as some of their fans think they will.
Giants could use Villar and Broxton should there be a fit in dealing with Brewers. Giants need more athletic bench and CF piece. Broxton being right handed bat makes him a less obvious fit but he’d potentially be a platoon partner with Duggar, allowing Jackson to be a good 4th OF type who can play any of the 3 OF spots. I love Villar in a super utility role because he can play all over the infield, as well as giving manager a speed/power threat off the bench. Had breakout in 16 then very rough 17. But cheap risk for Giants with some upside. Giants dealing bullpen piece makes sense and fits Brewers need. Just maybe there’s a very solid deal to be made with these clubs.
Id love to live in a world, as Brewer fan, where Santana+ brings back Salazar, but I think that + isn’t a small thing. i refer to Brewer fans to the Khris Davis deal of 2015(??) which brought back Nottingham+ who was, I think, a top 100 prospect at the time.
The comparison is not perfect, but its almost the same situation, Santana is younger than Davis, and had better WAR last year than Davis did the year the Brewers traded him. But I think it takes leaps of logic the length of an Aaron Judge homer to get to the player the caliber of Salazar. A package for Salazar is a lot.
I would call TB see if they are willing to move Jake Odorizzi
Pirates should trade Harrison and Nova for Salazar and a minor league infielder
People are clearly under valuing Danny Salazar , when he’s on , he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s still young AND under team control for another 4 years. No way am I trading him for a DH who pretends to play the outfield. Jason Kipnis does have value, he’s completely healthy and one of the top 7 2nd basemen in all of baseball. People going by his number last year don’t know what they don’t know..
Kipnis + Ryan Merrit who will be a solid MOR starter for years to come plus 3 mill cash to help offset contracts should be plenty for a DH with only 1 year resume and 31% strikeout rate . Let’s not forget as well. Sanatnas value may even dip once he leaves the hitter friendly Miller field.
Brewers don’t want 2B help they want pitching they would hang up the phone if you said sorry we won’t give you pitching how about IF help instead.
Lot of over valuing a DH with 1 year track record (Santana) he’s worth a 3-4 starter , NOBODY is shelling out an Ace or even a pitcher with Ace potential.
If the Brewers want Salazar they they will have to start the package with the pair of Josh Hader and Santana both for Salazar.
I personally would rather hold onto Salazar just from the simple fact that we are about to lose Cody Allen and Andrew Miller to Free Agency after this season I believe that Salazar would be a good choice to be either a set up guy or a close in 2019 for the Indians.