The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays are among the teams that face a critical decision this offseason, writes MLB.com’s Mike Petriello. All three are looking up at a stacked pair of rosters in Boston and New York, and there’s an argument to be made that each of the three should rebuild rather than make an aggressive push to contend in 2018. The Orioles and Jays are set to lose Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson to free agency next winter, while the low-payroll Rays have already been forced to trade Evan Longoria largely for fiscal reasons and have yet to see this core group realize its full potential. What truly matters for bubble teams of this nature, though, is simply making a definitive call, Petriello argues. With so many incentives (in terms of talent acquisition) for teams at the bottom of the league, rebuilding toward a brighter future or aggressively “going for it” are more logical routes for each of these teams than merely executing half-measures that will result in another middle-of-the-pack finish, Petriello posits.
Some notes from around the AL East…
- Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun checks in on some pitchers that’ll have the opportunity to make an impression on the Orioles at this week’s minor league mini-camp. While 40-man players aren’t required to attend the event, some will nonetheless be on hand, including righty Miguel Castro — the reliever-turned-starter that’ll head to Spring Training out of minor league options. Rule 5 pick Nestor Cortes, too, is getting a look from coaches and Orioles decision-makers. Meoli notes that Cortes appears headed for a long relief role if he’s able to crack the big league roster out of Spring Training — not uncommon for pitchers selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Others of note include Tanner Scott, Yefry Ramirez and Chris Lee.
- After missing all of the 2017 season as he recovered from two surgeries to repair his Achilles tendon, Rays infielder Matt Duffy feels he is at 100 percent and is beginning a running program, per Bill Chastain of MLB.com. In addition to running on a track, Duffy has been going to physical therapy sessions three times per week to continue strengthening the area and is confident in its stability. “I’m just finally to the point where I’m not worried at all. No anxiety,” Duffy said. “[Anxiety] was hanging over my head all year. Even when I felt good, I’d be like, ’When am I not going to feel good? Which step is going to set me back for five days?'” As Chastain points out, Duffy was initially acquired from the Giants to play shortstop for the Rays, but the trade of Evan Longoria (to Duffy’s former team) and the presence of Adeiny Hechavarria could once again have him ticketed for his former position, third base.
- The Blue Jays’ acquisition of Yangervis Solarte over the weekend gives the club plenty of versatility, which has been a point of focus for the organization as GM Ross Atkins explains to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “What we’re looking for, and will continue to look for, are options and versatile options and guys that can do multiple things, and guys that can typically play in the middle of the diamond can do more than that,” says Atkins. The GM notes that both Solarte and fellow trade pickup Aledmys Diaz can handle middle-of-the-diamond positions, which should strengthen the club’s depth considerably — a critical need for a Jays team that last year leaned heavily on Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney in the absence of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis. Atkins suggests that Solarte can not only see time at second base, third base and shortstop but also indicated that he could log occasional innings at first base and in the outfield. Atkin also acknowledged that the Jays are still in the market for an outfielder and for some rotation help; the staggeringly slow free-agent market should leave with plenty of options to pursue in that regard. Per Davidi, the Blue Jays have about $20MM to spend.
Orioles and Rays should definitely just rebuild.
Jays too.
Jays next year,,, they can still compete !
No they can’t. if they don’t finish around 500 I’d be surprised.
too many things have to go right for the Jays to succeed. That folks are excited about Diaz and Solarte shows just how bad Goins and Barney were last year. Corner outfield spots are a disaster, too.
Jays cannot compete in 2018. This rotation is a year older than last year. Do the math. It ain’t going to work for the whole year because of age and injuries. And despite Atkins claims of quality depth, which is nonsense, I scout one possible quality starter ready in the minors and he will likely slide in at a #4. They need to be able to replace Sanchez[finger] and Estrada [back] at a moment’s notice and it ain;t there. #scoutseyes.
Again with the #scouteyes you aren’t a scout and never were, get over yourself already.
For each of you “Jays cannot compete” guys: There are 5 playoff spots in each league. Assuming you’re picking the Astros, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox to pick up 4 of those 5 spots… who exactly do you imagine being so much better than Toronto that the Jays should just pack it in and not even bother trying for that 5th playoff spot?
Great question. Any team, including the Jays, can go on a run and squeak in to the playoffs. If I had to choose a 5th team not named Redsox, Yankees, Astros or Indiansfrom the AL now, I would say from the group [that I like as improving] of Rangers, Angels, Twins. or Mariners with my vote going to Minnesota.
Are you saying you think that all of the Rangers, Angels, Twins, and Mariners are *significantly* better this season than the Blue Jays? Because I would frankly put all of the Angels, Rangers, Twins, Mariners, Rays, and Blue Jays about even. Any one of those teams could make the post-season over the others.
don’t bother arguing with him.
You are not a fn SCOUT! #LIARSEYES!
I think theirs hope for Jays fans for them to compete for a wildcard spot
@ Momus
If things were decided strictly based on talent, it’s not inconceivable that the Blue Jays capture the 2nd WC spot; however, you need to adjust for the fact that the Blue Jays play in the AL East. The non-uniform schedule slants the competition unfavorably for the Blue Jays. Facing a higher level of competition for ~50% of your schedule is going to depress their win count. I really don’t see the Blue Jays making the post-season
(By extension, the same goes to the Rays and Orioles)
@go_jays_go == I was actually taking that into account. The Blue Jays look like a marginally better team than any of the others but face tougher competition. The only team I see as potentially better than than the Jays is the Angels, but that is entirely dependent on how good Otani turns out to be.
19 games each against the Yankess and Red Sox does not equal 50% of the schedule. And since the other teams in the AL also play the Yankees and Red Sox 6 times each it further erodes the meaningful percentage.
I’m sorry am a Jays fan too but if you think the Jays are really good than why did you put the Rays in the mix with all the other teams and the Jays have the skill level to compete the one thing they need this year is Joe Biagini from the bullpen and sign a cheep free agent pitcher.
That’s a valid point. Taking a second look at the Rays I’m not sure what made me include them. They frankly look more like a team that will compete with the Orioles for last in the division than one that will compete for a wildcard. Somehow they always seem to find a way to be better than logic days they should be, and I guess I might’ve included them out of respect, but I’d be comfortable taking them off that list after reviewing their roster again.
How can you rebuild with a top 5 farm system already. It’s more like a retool your major league roster. The Orioles and jays farm systems are in trouble. The Rays aren’t far from contending
The Jays have done a good job rebuilding their farm system. They’re in pretty good shape now.
The jays’ farm system isn’t bad either. It’s a borderline top 10 system in the league. The problem is that they’d have to trade Stroman/Sanchez/Osuna/Pillar if they are rebuilding, which will make their rebuild very long
Totally disagree on the length of term for the Jays to rebuild and so do many of the experts. Read the article MLBTR mentions above. If they don’t sell off their assets now, it will be a very long and stagnated 5-7 yrs of no October ball in Toronto. Look at Shaprio’s 14 yrs in Cleveland, hardly any deep playoff runs in 14 years. Awful. Look at Cashman and the Yankess and how long it took him/them when they sold of core assets for elite MLB ready prospects. 2-3 years.
Toronto is a MUCH bigger market team than Cleveland and has a lot more money. Even last year as they limped along to a 76-86 finish the Blue Jays were still the #1 highest attendance team in the American League, and are far, far, far and away the most watched team in all of baseball.
The Blue Jays farm system is ranked #9 and considered “near-elite” by Baseball America. They rank the Rays as #6. It’s not a huge difference.
What the heck are you taking about??? If the Jays have a nine farm system they should really just try and compete this year and btw the Rays are no where near competing….Name the Rays best player right now…….Corey Dickerson or Matt Duffy but neither of those guys are unbelievably good. Even Longoria wasn’t amazing, he was great but he wasn’t some household name.
The Jays don’t have a nine farm system, that is coming from someoone who heard it on the radio or read a book about it not from a scouting type.
In the baseball community, the Jays farm system is about a 7 now and it might get to an 8 by the end of the year by dealing away the pieces they need to at the trade deadline. [Donaldson, Happ, Estrada if healthy, etc etc.]
FYI, Vlad jr is a bonafide superstar prospect whose ceiling is superstar at the MLB level. The same is not of Bischette, he will likely only be a mediocre major leaguer.#scoutseyes
Uh… #9 out of 30 teams. It’s the ranking of the various farm systems against each other, not a score out of 10.
Completely agree. I’m not sure what’s stopping the Rays from a full blown rebuild especially after trading Longoria. Orioles SHOULD rebuild given the fact that so many contracts are expiring after ‘18, and their rotation is a mess, but Angelos will refuse, and nobody is gonna take on Chris Davis’ remaining contract.
Tampa doesn’t have much of a need to trade much else. They have a pretty stacked farm system that’s arguably in the top 3. And most of the team is on cheap contracts (the most expensive is Span). The team has a few needs, especially in the bullpen department. And a few guys who could stand a trade to let some of their prospects get more time. But right now it’s a waiting game until the core they are waiting for are ready to come up.
The Rays don’t need a full rebuild. They are an 80 win team with the vast majority of the players on their 25 man roster and just about every player in their core having 3+ years of team control remaining. They also have 6 of their top 10-12 prospects in AAA or above to start this year.
Rays have way more pieces to trade than the O’s.
A rebuild is to gain depth from the bottom up. The Rays have been doing a quiet rebuild over the last 4 years and locking up the key pieces to make that run. They need a couple little upgrades on the infield and bullpen. The Rays are not far from contending. The jays and Orioles and much much worse. You can’t rebuild a top 5 farm system lol. We already did
I don’t think you’ve evaluated the Blue Jays farm system if you think they’re devoid of talent.
I agree there’s no question because they traded the face of the rays and the only player left of the 2008 team when they went to the World Series although Kevin keirmier and Steven Souza have shown a lot of talent and could be the new faces unless Brent Honeywell outshines of course which I think he will come out on a ROY campaign
Rays are constantly rebuilding. Orioles owner refuses to commit to a full tear-down and rebuild because it would be admitting that they cannot contend for at least a wild card spot, which he will not allow.
Season ended 3 months ago, barely any non-reliever free agents have signed. Baseball offseason is terrible…
It really is crazy how long it’s taking for the major free agents to sign this offseason.
Well, when Scott Boras represents basically all the all stars, this is what happens.
My question is what kind of blackmail material did Carlos Santana have on Matt Klentak? There was no real fit for him positionally in Philadelphia and yet he gets $20 million a year when all other bigger name free agent are playing chicken to get paid
Hoping the Jays don’t sign an OF. Would rather see Hernandez and Alford out there to see what they already have. Spend the 20M on pitching that can be traded at the deadline if they are out of it.
You nailed it. The Jays need pitiching, pitching pitching. time will bare out what you are saying. Good call.
Good call? Are you kidding me? They do need some starter depth but if I have to see Pearce and Carrera out there I’m going to barf. Would be better to get a solid OF to play right and Hernandez and Alford can fight the dropsy twins for playing time. Last year with the garbage flanking Pillar I’m surprised he wasn’t hospitalized.
Ohtani signing has not expedited the FA market, as everyone had hoped.
Nor Stanton/Miami trades But…
Dodgers getting into a lot of three ways — even more than Crazy Jerry
And Relievers are still getting paid.
Can’t wait to ser Solarte and Diaz playing up the middle for The Jays. I am sure the Jays pitchers are not as enthusiastic as I am however.
Oh you guys don’t have tulo anymore? Strange
They have Tulo but he will only play about 120 games. And I was being sarcastic. I am a Red Sox fan.
Even with their defensive limitations, they are over a 2 win improvement compared to the Goins/Barney tandem that was trotted out last year
True but with both having defensive limitations, if they play every day the Jays D will be quite poor.
The additions of Solarte and Diaz are just peices, good pieces, but just pieces nonetheless. It won’t get this team over the top to October ball. These are minor depth moves.
The Jays need to make some big moves for elite starting pitching and a right fielder in order to get playoff bound again. Otherwise, it is another year of “building the minor league system”. lol..
The Jays need a power hitting outfielder that can protect JD in the middle of the order. I would love to see them land a guy like Corey Dickerson from the Rays, he’s a modest cost arb eligible for the next 2 years. Make it happen Atkins!
Nah we good.
Donaldson and Machado need to be traded.
I know the orioles owner is against sending machado to the yankees, but getting a package like
Sheffield.
1 of Perez, Abreu, Acevado.
Estrada.
McKinney
Would go a long way to helping the Orioles recoup value on a player they most likely wont resign.
Or send him outside the division. Yankees aren’t the only team out there. And that package isn’t going to blow away other teams.
The only other team that could use him is the cardinals. Every other team is pretty much set at 3B and SS and dont want to part with the necessary pieces or still figuring things out.
From the cardinals perspective they could help the Orioles “retool” by offering
Gyorko to replace Machado,
Grichuk (who could replace jones if they trade him on 1 year deal),
Bader,
Hudson,
and Gomber
all mlb ready assets. 3 years of gyorko and grichuk along with 6 of bader, hudson, and gomber who can step in immediately.
Itd also allow them to trade jones whos also on his last year for pitching. Maybe adam jones and cash to the diamondbacks for duplantier and clarke.
I’d rather have Donaldson. Better offensively and right up there defensively. Plus he doesn’t have to bad knees and who knows what Machado’s offensive numbers will be away from Camden. When it’s all said and done, he will be a Yankee and he’s not worth $400 million
Cards are not giving up that kind of talent for 1 year of any player!
So you think a genetic defect that has now been repaired in both knees is going to somehow come back.
I don’t know why that trade would upset you as a cardinals fan. You’re giving up your 4th best starting pitching prospect. An outfield prospect whom you already have about 10 of and a 3b you wouldn’t need anymore for a top 10 player in the league.
The O’s will need a 3B to replace Machado and in addition, are asking for 2 MLB ready starting pitchers. That package isn’t a fit.
While those are solid to okay prospect it obviously wouldn’t land Machado … While it’s hard to believe the Orioles will land what they are asking for in two young MLB or MLB ready front of the rotation types … I can’t see them deciding to take less than. They want … especially from the Yankees … If anything they’d probably charge the Yankees more
Yes. A Yankees deal is going to take more than a deal from the cubs or cards. Sending your stud player to your divisional rival isn’t something the orioles are looking to do. There’s definitely a tipping point where the offer is too good that you have to accept but that offer certainly isn’t it. And the guy above who said only the Yankees or cardinals need a 3b/Ss that’s ridiculous.
When healthy, Donaldson is elite and can carry a team. I hate to see him leave the Jays but I see him going. No way the Jays are going to pay the money to re-sign him unless they can dump a Tulo or Martin contract.
He is not bad defensively either and has a great arm.
He is a good clubhouse guy and leads by example.
Let’s all hope the Jays trade him sooner than later to maximize return.
No “#scouteyes” ????
Sorry, #scoutseyes
#BULLSHITEYES!
Everyone knows machado will be a yankee next offseason. The TBJ & BO are regressing teams that need to sell off their high paid stars for prospects.
Unless someone bowls they over with a trade request for Donaldson, the Jays will not and should not sell. The difference in return for him now vs at the deadline will be very minimal. Better approach would be to sign him to an extension as he loves the City
I actually think there will be a big difference in the returns offered now vs at the deadline. If they trade him now, the acquiring team gets a full season of him rather than just 2 months and they also retain the right to QO him which means they get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere next offseason. And teams don’t just get to force players to sign extensions btdubs.
Also teams stocking up for the playoffs at the deadline don’t usually trade for position players unless they’ve had an injury. Last year at the deadline teams acquired Darvish, Gray, Kintzler, Liriano, Reed, Wilson, Garcia, Ramos, Hellickson, Neshek, Robertson, Kahnle, Quintana, etc. What do they have in common? All pitchers. The only position players traded were Duda, JDM, Nunez, Frazier, Kendrick, and Lucroy. Big difference in both the quantity and the quality of players being moved.
Donaldson would indeed be worth quite a bit more now.
The thought of the Jays having to rebuild is nonsense. Any progress from Tulo, Travis and or Sanchez and this team already gets a few wins better which isn’t a huge ask since none of them were even on the field last year.
Even if they don’t make the playoffs this year they should be fighting for a spot and we still have Sanchez and Stroman who are ~25 years old which almost any team would love to have to build around plus one of the better closers in baseball who’s what? 22-23 now in Osuna. The only “old” players who are in their decline now are Estrada, Happ, Martin and Tulo and even in decline a couple of those guys are still good contributors and leaders.
Plus we have a good farm system. It’s not doom and gloom in tornoto right now.
It really isn’t. We have arguably the #1 prospect in all of baseball, and two other elite prospects behind him. All of them are position players (3B/1B, SS, CF) and all are within a couple of years of the majors. In fact it’s likely at least two of them will get a cup of coffee in Toronto some time this season.
There is some logic to Toronto signing Donaldson and keeping all of their young pitching – they might not be that far away from another contending team, especially when there are 2 wildcard spots.
Duquette waited too long to trade Machado. If he was traded back in July, we might have been playoff worthy in 2-3 years. Now…who knows.
The Os were 4 games out of the WC at the break last season. That is not a time that teams give up on the season. Unfortunately, it was not a time they went all in and traded for a pitcher or 2.
Nothing to do with this signing
I’d like to throw something out for debate. It goes for ANY team and ANY hitter. The bunt!
I think every hitter 1 through 9 should be able to lay down a sac bunt to move a runner from 2nd to 3rd when a runner is on second with none out and those hitters who cannot should be forced to practice it until they can do it. How many games are lost by 1 run through the course of a season? It could mean a team getting into the playoffs or not.
A .300/30HR/100RBI hitter would be in any teams lineup but they fail to produce 7 out of 10 at bats so why don’t more teams have everyone tow the rope so to say and give themselves up to advance a runner where a sac fly or simple ground ball could score a run? It seems like a pretty easy way for any team to add 7-10 games to their record.
Thoughts? Am I out to lunch or does this make sense to you? Thanks
A sac bunt is a terrible play in like 99% of situations. Why would you just give away an out? You have a guy on 2B and NO ONE OUT, and you’re going to help the other team by just giving them a free out? Why? Any hit that will score a guy from 3B will usually score him from 2B. You have 3 chances to bring that guy in from 2B
If you’ve got a Billy Hamilton who can beat out bunts a decent amount of the time then sure, have him try to get on base once in a while with a bunt. If you can convince guys to bunt against the shift, or bunt when the infield is playing deep? Sure. But a sac bunt? Almost always a terrible idea.
Roughly speaking, a team that has a 0 outs and a runner on 2nd is expected to score 1.10 runs from this point until the inning ends, whereas a team with a runner on 3rd and 1 out is expected to score 0.95 runs from this point forward. You do increase the likelyhood of scoring one run slightly though from about a 61.4% chance to 66% chance. So, if it is late in a tie game, say bottom 8 or on and you are very confident that the batter can lay down a successful sac bunt, it probably isn’t a mistake.
Grounder to the right side gets the runner over and has a chance to get through. Deep fly to right generally gets the runner over as well. A pitcher or slaphitter might be worth bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd but it’s not worth it when the runner is already in scoring position.
I’d be more inclined to bunt the runner from 1st with none out to break up the double play and to get the runner into scoring position. Especially in a close/late scenario. And even more if the lineup was struggling and the opposing pitcher was dominating. Possibly worth it with one out if desperation called for it. If a Maile or Carrera is up to bat with a runner on and less than 2 outs in a close/late game, then they should bunt almost every time in my opinion.
Any batter that can’t run fast enough to break up a double play should at least have the ability to bunt. And any strikeout prone batter.
Keeping the defense honest has an effect that is difficult to quantify as well. Another factor is that some pitchers are bad at fielding so if you can place a bunt properly, you can get a hit or even an overthrow more often than you should.
Not recommending a lot of bunting, but I’d have a hard time saying it’s almost always a terrible idea. I’m certain the Jays could bunt one extra time per week and it would lead to an extra win every month or two. Rally killing double plays seem to happen multiple times per week, where a big inning late only happens a couple times per season. Seems worth the gamble to at least try a bit more often.
I actually agree with a lot of this, but that’s the difference between bunting and sacrifice bunting. God knows the Jays seemed to be the kings of the rally killing double-play over the last few years (haven’t checked if that’s actually true, it sure felt that way watching them) but in almost all cases I would want a hit-and-run bunt and a legit try for a bunt single rather than a sac bunt.
The problem with bunting against the shift seems to be entirely rooted in obstinance and pride for most hitters – not just the Jays, all hitters, remember David Ortiz? The shift against him was so extreme teams would sometimes have the 3B playing on the right side of 2B. There is something to be said for not taking the bat out of the hands of your best hitters, but a few bunts down the third base line might’ve got teams to moderate their shift at least a little.
I would like to see the Jays try for a bunt single a little more often, especially in double-play situations, but this really hasn’t been a base-stealing, bunting, type of team. Maybe this season since there’s a lot less power and a bit more speed in the lineup.
Thanks for the input guys. I’ve never actually looked into the numbers regarding bunting, moving runners, scoring from 3rd with 1 out as oppose from 2nd with 0 out etc it just seemed to me it would be an easier way to score more runs but the numbers say otherwise I guess. However in saying that, with the defensive shifts maybe if those guys hunted against the shift it would have the teams give up using the shifts opening up the opportunity for more base hits, maybe I just have a love for bunting when in reality it wouldn’t work lol