The Twins “seem determined” to sign one of the top starters on the free-agent market and are showing increased optimism about their chances of landing right-hander Yu Darvish, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota thinks that Darvish’s relationship with GM Thad Levine and their emerging young core of position players will work in their favor in trying to lure Darvish to Minneapolis. That said, it doesn’t sound as if anything is close on the Darvish front, either. One Twins exec opined to Neal that Darvish could yet take another month to make his decision. Wherever he signs, Darvish’s contract will all but certainly represent a would-be record commitment for the Twins in free agency; the Twins have never signed a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract, though Darvish seems unlikely to top the Twins’ franchise record for a contract (Joe Mauer’s $184MM extension coming off his MVP 2009 campaign).
More out of the American League…
- Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Larry Stone of the Seattle Times about his aggressive and active approach on the trade front, refuting the notion that he’s torn down the team’s farm system (a minor league system that was poor when he inherited it in the first place). “We have not emptied the farm system to go acquire veteran players to make a run at a postseason,” says Dipoto. “…[W]e have effectively moved players around the league to acquire players that are in their prime who are under team control, almost all of whom are in their 20s.” Indeed, Stone points out that the Mariners have quietly become the second-youngest team in their division, with only a few notable stars (Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano) much beyond the age of 30. “There are more ways to rebuild than ripping it down to the studs,” Dipoto says of his efforts to build a younger roster. I’d highly recommend a full read-through of Stone’s column, which is packed with quotes from Dipoto that provide insight into the Mariners’ process and his decision-making.
- The Orioles have made surprisingly minimal efforts to extend second baseman Jonathan Schoop, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. If the O’s don’t approach Schoop about a long-term deal prior to the start of the 2018 season, they’ll be in a similar spot with him to the one they face with regard to Manny Machado right now, Encina observes. MLBTR projects Schoop to top $9MM in salary this coming season, so if he enters this year without an extension, there’ll be little cause for him to seriously entertain a long-term deal next winter when he’s just one year removed from hitting free agency in advance of his age-28 season with more than $15MM already in his back pocket. Encina, though, points out that the O’s haven’t brokered an extension with any of their young potential core pieces since Adam Jones in 2012, instead shelling out massive commitments to re-sign Chris Davis and (to a lesser extent) Darren O’Day and Mark Trumbo in free agency. Of course, it’s also worth noting that they likely dodged some bullets by eschewing such contracts for players like Chris Tillman and Matt Wieters.
- The Tigers preferred the package of prospects that the Mets were willing to offer for Ian Kinsler to the package they received from the Angels, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. However, Kinsler would only waive his no-trade clause to approve a trade to the Angels, forcing GM Al Avila’s hand. Though Avila could’ve waited, Fenech opines that the GM made the right call to act when there was a trade scenario on the table rather than to wait for something unforeseen to arise. Meanwhile, Kinsler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that Justin Upton has been recruiting him since being traded to the Angels in August, and the Halos’ success in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes caught his attention as well: “Making moves this winter to push for the next level … That motivates a player like me.”
Steve, your link to Fenech’s article connects to the Baltimore Sun.
If I was kinsler I wouldn’t want to go to the mets either. He wasn’t a good fit there anyways imo
The Mets have a need for 2B but Kinsler isn’t a good fit?
Doesn’t he already have a contract? Are you implying they were going to try and cut his salary? Obviously not so I don’t see what difference it makes if the owners are cheap or not.
He’s not a good fit because he wants a chance to win not just punch a clock
No, because he wants to win now.
He would have been a perfect fit for the Mets,but can’t blame him for not waiving the no trade clause .Owners are tightwads with their money
Spending so much money on a pitcher in darvish who hasn’t shown the ability to be durable is a bad move for the twins considering that they don’t spend money like that often
I agree. Doesn’t seem like a wise move for the Twins.
It hurts to say but I’d rather trade for a starter than sign yu. He’s only topped 200IP once even with all the strike outs.
it all depends on price for me I’d love him at 5/140 but not so much at 6/180.
If MIN get Yu, I would put them ahead of the Angels. A front three of Yu, Berrios, and Santana is pretty not bad. Also, Seattle is going nowhere. DiPito can make all the trades he wants but they cant afford a #1/2 pitcher, which is why not getting Ohtani hurt them worse than any other team vying for him.
How can adding ONE starting pitcher put Minnesota in front of the Angels who added Ohtani, Kinsler, Cozart and extended Upton?
The fact that they were already better…
Well first off the Twins were better than the Angels to start the off season so they don’t need to add as much in the first place. Second, the Twins biggest area of need is pitching and if you have 3 top end starters that makes for a very nice rotation so really all the Twins would need to add some bullpen help and they would have to be considered one of the top 5 teams in the AL. Even if you look at what the Angles added, Ohtani could be a HOF’er or he could be a complete bust, guys coming over like this aren’t a guarantee by any means., Kinsler is going to be 36 next year and age is starting to show on him, Cozart’s had one above average season in his entire career and he’s going from one of the best hitting parks in the MLB to a below average park so I wouldn’t expect him to get better in that regard. That really only leaves Upton (who they already had) as a guaranteed impact player.
They had Upton for 1 month.
That assumption is made based off of record, and the benefit of playing one playoff game cause of it. The difference in record is 5 games, although Pythagorean has it closer at only 2 games difference. This is with Trout on the DL for nearly 2 months, and Upton on the team for only 1. Take into account offseason moves and the Angels have added Ohtani, Kinsler, Cozart and Johnson while losing Petit. And the Twins have added Michael Pineda and Fernando Rodney. I wouldn’t argue that they’re not in the same tier, but Angels are closer to breaking into the next one (90-win) than the Twins are at this point.
That doesn’t changed anything I said, I was just pointing out how when you’re comparing moves made in the off season Upton was already part of last years team to some degree.
No that assumption is made off of the fact that the Twins were a top 10 team in just about every important offensive statistic/metric and the Angle were in the bottom 10 in just about all of them, including the fact that the Twins scored 105 more runs than the Angles. Two months without Trout isn’t worth 105 runs and that ignores the fact that the Twins didn’t have Sano for the last month plus of last year. As mentioned in my first post, Kinsler and Cozart might be small upgrades but they aren’t going to make huge impact, especially if Cozart reverts back to his career averages. At this point nobody knows how good Ohtani will be, or if he even plays in the majors next year, so you can’t really quantify his impact. That again leaves Upton who will make and impact but not enough to make them a better offensive team than the Twins. That leaves pitch where the Twins were terrible and the Angles were mediocre, if they Twins add Darvish that gives them a very good 1-3 for their rotation which will by default result in everything else improving(Rodney does help some too), at least slightly. The Twins would go from being terrible to below average in the pitching department. After all is said and done you would have the Twins with a below average pitching staff and a very good offense and the Angles will a mediocre pitching staff and at best a mediocre offense (probably still below average) so the Twins would still be the better looking team.
What if Kinsler reverts back to his career average? That would make up for any drop by Cozart.
Twins had a great offense, having scored 8% more than the lg avg., a long way to go for the Angels (-6%). Trout and Sano each played 114 games, so sure I suppose you can call that a ‘wash’. You haven’t factored in defense, which is the Angels specialty. Because while the Angels still had a better FIP than the Twins, they were able to outperform it more, which resulted in ERA being 3% lower than lg avg. (not exactly mediocre), while the Twins sat 6% higher. Or in just straight up runs allowed, Angels were 6% better than the league, and Twins gave up 5% more. Angels with R:-6%; RA:6% cancel out, likely why Pythag has them as a.500 team. Twins with R:+8%; RA:-5%, a difference of +3%, again likely why Pythag has the Twins as an 83 win. The Twins certainly outperformed the Angels last year, but they were close. Also, given the addition of Ohtani, upgrades at severely bad positions for the Angels last year (2B:-3.0; 3B: -1.9 WAR), full-season of Richards and Upton, and skepticism of Twins legitimacy (59-wins a year ago) and you got my reasons why the Angels leapfrogged the Twins in the offseason, to this point.
Of course how good Ohtani will be is not guaranteed, just like everything in baseball. Noone can “guarantee” anything until the game is played. Sure, the Twins can add Darvish, but is it guaranteed that he will be good? All we can do is talk about the previous season and the changes the teams have made to better (or worse if you are the Marlins) themselves.
For starter, Darvish compiled 93-38 record with 1.99 ERA in Japan while Ohtani made 42-15 with 2.52 ERA. We can extrapolate that Ohtani will at least be a very effective pitcher in comparison to how Darivish fared in the majors. Last year, the Angels 2B had a minus 0.3 fWAR while the 3B posted 2.0. Kinsler and Cozart combined for 7.4 fWAR. Even when you calculate in “some” regression from the duo, it is still much of an improvement from last year.
Baseball is a game of surprises; who could have predicted Trout to be out for 2 months? Or Calhoun to slump mostly throughout the season? Or Santana to have an all star year when all I watched him doing in Anaheim was giving up homeruns?
Baseball is fun because of this.
Lost in your analysis is the fact the Twins in 2017 benefited greatly by having the terrible Tigers and White Sox in their division. Because of the unbalanced schedules all teams play, the Twins had a disproprotionate number games against the Tigers and White Sox, which will inflate any team’s seasonal record. Even the Royals were not close to their WS form of just a few years ago, and put up token resistance against the Twins.
The Tigers will probably still be a mess in 2018 as their rebuild continues, but the White Sox figure to be a stronger team–and maybe one with Machado on the roster–and the Royals should bounce back from their depths last year.
Improvement in the Royals and White Sox alone could cost the Twins a drop of 5 games in the win column, going from 2017’s 85-77 to 80-82. That would equal the records of the Royals, Rays, and Angels of 2017, and while the Rays have their work cut out for them next year, both the Angels and Royals (as stated previously) figure to climb a little higher. It is entirely possible to be looking at the Royals #2 behind the Indians in the AL Central by season’s end.
All it takes is one poorly-timed losing streak to scuttle any team’s chances. Given the mediocrity of the White Sox and Royals isn’t guaranteed to repeat in 2018, it doesn’t follow that the Twins have a firm chance on the AL Wild Card next season.
Santana was a roller coaster in ANA. I either loved him or hated him…dominated or got shelled. So frustrating. He’s done great in MIN, though.
You’re not counting for a weakened Central division. Twins have a shot at the division, and are my dark horse team for a Series run. They know this also and it’s why the unusual move to go get a starter to front it. There’s also more growth room on offense. Angels will win a few more if they’re healthy. I’m not sure why there needs to be a comp between them…the teams aren’t similar at all. But I believe the Twins have the clearer path toward a playoff spot.
And it was a losing month with Upton if I recall corretly…
First off, people keep saying the Twins benefited from being in the AL Central, the AL West wasn’t much better so let’s stop acting like the Angels play in this super difficult division. Second, some thought up defense, the Twins have the best defensive outfielder in baseball and probably the best overall defensive outfield in general and their infield is decent so again the Angels don’t really have a huge advantage there. Lastly as mentioned Kinsley is 36 which is when players generally start to decline he far less likely to revert to his career averages than Cozart is.
I’m not so optimistic on the Cozart move for one and for two, their starting pitching hasn’t been world changing…they have the potential to be a great team but it all has to come together…to be honest, the Angels would be smart to look to add a clear cut ace like Darvish in order to solidify their rotation a bit, especially with Richards and Ohtani not looking entirely healthy coming into the season
Adding top of rotation talent should make 2-5 better. Takes pressure off each guy and the ace is supposed to be the stopper and set the tone for the rest of the staff. Signing someone like Darvish should do exactly that. Santana has been pretty good for the Twins but he’s not the prototypical ace. MN is close to serious contention and a deep run in the post season. Netting an ace is their number one need.
James Paxton/Felix Hernandez isn’t a good enough #1/2 for you?
Looks better than Richards/Ohtani to me.
Richards/Ohtani is better I think.
Paxton is a Ace when healthy. He has not had a healthy season yet in the majors. Richards has ace stuff but like Paxton he is injured often (more serious injuries than Paxton thus far though).
As much as I love Felix I think his days as a one/two are over. He is a three/four type of starter. I think Ohtani has better stuff than Felix at this point. I think Felix can still put up some great numbers the next year or two but based on his last two seasons I don’t think you can call him a 1/2 anymore.
Ohtani has never pitched in the majors. He might not pitch this year. Felix will pitch in majors and has a track record. I’d take that over an unknown. If we want to claim unknown let’s start looking at AAA rosters for late season guys that will ‘make the difference in post season’
Paxton has never topped 139 IP in a major league season; that means he usually is on the DL for about 1/4 of the season. He has yet to prove that he can stay healthy for the full 162, which automatically removes him as a candidate for the #1 spot in any rotation.
Felix has had his share of injury problems, not the least of which is his shoulder condition (revealed when he had his physical for the big extension he received) which has now sucked his velocity away. He has yet to make the transition from thrower to pitcher. Neither is a #1, and quite frankly, I would hesitate to put either in a #2 spot right now.
For the moment, Mike Leake is the de facto #1 starter for Seattle, if for no other reason it looks like he’ll toe the slab 30-32 times this year. Erasmo Ramirez had a fine second half for the M’s after he came over in the trade with TB, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain that over a full season. Ariel Miranda literally saved the first half of the Mariners’ season, as he jumped into the rotation with the injuries to Felix, Paxton, Iwakuma, and Smyly, and pitched well. However, he either ran out of gas in the second half or the league caught up to him; either way, balls started leaving the park VERY quickly after that (he gave up 39 HR’s last year.)
No one knows what Iwakuma has left, and he probably won’t be ready to make a contribution at the major league level until close to the All-Star break. And neither Andrew Moore nor Marco Gonzales showed us anything that would make us believe either would be long for a major league rotation anytime soon. The “depth” behind those guys is non-existent.
In short, the M’s don’t have a legitimate #1 on their staff right now, and their depth is thinner than it was last year, especially with Andrew Albers’s sudden departure for Japan. It would appear that Dipoto has openly embraced the new “bullpenning” concept… except that I don’t think he realizes that it won’t work over a full season, especially if the bullpen arms you have are not all Andrew Miller types.
No one would have confused Edwin Diaz for Mariano Rivera or Kenley Jansen last season; it might not have been the full Fernando Rodney experience, but if he loses control of one of his two pitches, he’s going to make things very interesting. Both David Phelps and Tony Zych are coming off injury-plagued seasons. Dan Altavilla can throw a ball through a brick wall, but for most of the year, his fastball had no movement, and it was VERY hittable. Marc Rzepczynski continued to see his walk rate rise, especially on first batters faced (not something you want out of a LOOGY), and James Pazos had nothing in the second half. Even Nick Vincent wore down in the last month. And again, there’s not much help available in AAA.
In the meantime, the Angels have beefed up their lineup with Kinsler and Cozart, the Astros’ core is still together, the Rangers still have very potent lineup, and the A’s have started putting together a VERY solid core of hitters (Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman.) The M’s, for a change, shouldn’t have problems scoring runs… preventing them is another story.
I used to call Dipoto Trade-DHD, for obvious reasons. Now given how he’s been publicly saying he doesn’t need another starting pitcher and the staff will be fine, I’m now changing my nickname for him to DiPollyanna. If the M’s don’t pick up a legitimate top of the rotation starter and probably even one more back-end starter, my prediction is that the Mariners will finish with a WORSE record than last year, and that Mr. Dipoto may be looking for a new employer in October.
Can’t afford or won’t spend? M’s can definitely afford to sign a ace, their tv deal is more than $117 million a year and they draw 2 million fans a year.
Not to mention one of the richest ownership groups in all of professional sports.
But having the funds does not mean they are willing to spend it.
Agreed misconception about them. Dipoto is showing he is being smart in reguards to spending.
how much money the owner/ownership group has is completely irrelevant when it comes to how much a team is going to spend.
Mariner’s actually opened up the books for dipoto to spend more. He could offer darvish a contract but doesn’t want to overpay him like Minnesota would need to for him to go there. As for the twins being better than the angels that’s funny. They got a few players but think they over played there ability in probably the weakest division in baseball. Mariner’s will be good this year. Dipoto has a few more tricks up his sleeve.
Why the assumption that the Twins would need to overpay? Cold climate? I mean if it’s competitive team they have that working. If it’s the everyone wants to be a Cub or Yankee there’s that I guess
I think if you offer players a lot of money they will more likely sign with you.
Seems to be the opposite of my Orioles approach.
Orioles make errors left and right every offseason
If the Twins were objectively equal to the Angels they’d win more games because of the division.
outside of Houston the AL West isn’t exactly anything to be afraid of.
Idk if I’d say that but the AL West as a whole has definitely gotten better and also over the last decade AL West has been one of the best division!
Make sense to me that the twins would go after a top end guy like Darvish. It’s true that they historically don’t spend that kind of money, but they do have new management and they have spent more in the past. Our payroll is actually less than it was five or six years ago.
Also, I believe a big reason we don’t spend much on free agents is because those top of the line free agents simply don’t want to play baseball in Minnesota. I think this point goes largely unnoticed.
It goes unnoticed because there’s little reason to believe that had much or any influence. It’s not like they’re playing ball in mid-January. The Twins front office has been relatively stagnant for the greater part of their recent history, and under Ryan the Twins were risk adverse. Can’t ever think of a time they even attempted to get a top free agent. It was philosophical not geographical.
I don’t disagree with you that philosophy was a large part of the reason. I just believe that geographic location has more to do with it than others believe. We played in a dome for years because of our geographic location. Players generally don’t like playing in a dome. Also, due to our Midwest geographic location, it’s difficult to compete with the east and west coast teams when it comes to free agents.
Probably some truth in it all. The team really hasn’t been primed to enter the free agent market in Target Field until now. It’s hard to attract many top level free agents when you’re in last place. Often guys hitting free agency around 30 or so are looking for a winner…or posterity. The chance to be in a larger market comes into play.
But the Twin Cities are nice! Been there many times. Reminds me of Denver. If places like Denver and Minneapolis didn’t have elevation and early weather working against them you’d see players swarm them.
I crave some Broadway Pizza on a regular basis.
Yes, I agree it was philosophical for the most part but geography does play a role in that equation. When you consider the Twin Cities Metro is a cold, dirty, remote isolated upper Midwest town where winter reigns from October – Early May; it starts to add up. The TC’s get dark at 3:00pm from late October through mid March and the temps. barely climb out of the single digits for three months of the year again it’s not hard to fathom why no-one wants to move there let alone play baseball in America’s largest polar metropolis.
Obviously i’m exaggerating a bit, but as someone who is from the area why play baseball in such an environment when you can go to California and all the sun or NY City or some of the other east coast teams and experience big cities, vibrant night life instead of freezing your buns off in Minnesooota.
Then you get into ownership issues. The Griffiths were notoriously cheap as owners and Carl Pohlad volunteered to contract the team because he didn’t get his stadium at first. Historically this team never spent much on the field outside of a few exceptions and it shows. They built a legacy of being ultra CHEAP.
It’s not gonna happen. This is the new FO’s wishful thinking out loud. I’ll give them credit for begging for some of the top tier pitching talent because Ryan was never willing to do that, but it’s also painful as fan to watch them have to resort to this. For a franchise to have to beg to bring in top talent because no-one wants to go to Minnesota is sad. But at the end of the day it’s not happening. Maybe they get lucky and sign Lynn, but Darvish…..knaw…..ain’t happenin.
To be perfectly honest I see no way the Twins CAN outbid the Cubs or Yankees who have considerably more resources (especially the Yankees) and can just bid up Darvish for every offer the Twins make. He would instantly be 1/3 of their payroll ignoring what Joe Mauer currently makes.. And even though Minnesota has a majority of their payroll coming off the books by 2019 (like 70 or 80 million coming off) Darvish is not likely signing for another 4 to 5 weeks from what i’ve heard.
All the big name pitchers are holding out at least another month, so end of January beginning of February.
Mauer is off the books after this season and what does when Darvish signs have to do with anything? Also you literally have no idea what you’re talking about.
It’s you that have literally has no idea wth you are talking about…. Jack. I know Mauer is coming off the books but if you honestly think that means they are going to sign Darvish your delusional. And yes all the big name pitchers are holding out another 4 or 5 weeks based on most sports writers reporting (like Len – Star tribune) which will make it even harder for the Twins to sign one once they all start going one after another. By the way go f yourself
I’d Be fine with Darvish signing with the twins, if he’s not coming back I hope he doesn’t sign with a big market team
Let’s not forget the Angels will be starting the year with a medically cleared rotation. All the starters missed significant time last season and if only half of them stay healthy they should look REAL good
Every year, recently, the Angels pitchers end up injured. Might need to talk to that trainer. Don’t really expect anything to change.
Not sold on a single Angel starter. Richards is not an ace, just like Weaver was barely, maybe a borderline ace one or two years even though he was billed as an ace for a decade. I’d give up any combo of our mediocre six starters for Darvish.
Yet another reason why the O’s must trade Machado. We will be competing with the twins (who may obtain an ace in Yu Darvish), a much improved Angels team(who are now several steps ahead of the Os), the mariners, and potentially even the rangers, jays, or even rays just to see who will lose in Fenway or Yankee Stadium. The AL is now far to competitive for the current caliber of the Os roster, farm, management, and ownership. We should trade Brach, machado, and Britton. We already have 39 mill off the books going into this year plus another 34 shelled out in these potential deals. If they aquire a starter and then sign a Carlos Gonzalez (1 year 11 mill) and a Lance lynn(4 year 54 million) and then a washed up Jason Vargas (1 year 5 million) the Os can still sell tickets and still somewhat compete BUT WE MUST REPLENISH THE FARM. (Also disclaimer by no means do I️ think the Os will do this and won’t be surprised to see them sign vargas and the Jon Jay and call it a day)
I’m not surprised at all by the minimal effort the Orioles have made to extend Schoop. That’s just the way they roll.
Second youngest team in the AL West….bahahhahahahhahaha! Dipoto completely reaching for positives as always. Enjoy third place yet again….