Entering the offseason, it was often suggested that the Orioles should listen to offers on Manny Machado with one year remaining until he reaches the open market, but most reports suggested that the O’s hoped to take one more shot at contending in 2018 before Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach reach free agency. To that end, GM Dan Duquette spoke openly about his hope of adding as many as three starters to round out the rotation behind Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman in an effort to remain competitive.
Over the past week, reports have tilted in the other direction, as suggestions that the O’s would listen on Machado have now evolved to the point where The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Baltimore is shopping Machado and asking interested parties to make offers on the three-time All-Star. Baltimore is eyeing a pair of controllable young starters in talks for Machado, per Rosenthal. It’s a steep ask for a one-year rental of a player projected by MLBTR to earn $17.3MM in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility — even if Machado has been among the game’s truly elite talents over the past five seasons.
Baltimore’s preferences aside, it’s probably fair to assume that a trade package for Machado doesn’t expressly need to be built around two starters. Teams can offer any combination of Major League position players and prospects with some upper-level pitching as they attempt to pique Baltimore’s interest, and if the Orioles are truly open to the idea of moving Machado, it’s doubtful that they’d turn down a strong offer simply because the best player involved happened to be a position player.
It’s also worth noting that while many have suggested that a theoretical Machado trade could come with a “window” to negotiate an extension with his reps at MVP Sports, that scenario is uncommon. Nor, for that matter, should it be considered especially likely that Machado is particularly amenable to an extension with a new organization when he’s less than 12 months removed from hitting the open market as a 26-year-old free agent with a legitimate chance at a record-setting extension.
The Best Fit
From my vantage point, the Cardinals represent the best fit in terms of need and available prospects. The Cards are flush with young pitching, boasting names ranging from Alex Reyes to Luke Weaver to Jack Flaherty to Sandy Alcantara. They’ve also got a sizable crop of upper-level outfielders — another potential area of need for an Orioles with Adam Jones set to hit free agency next winter and no established presence in right field (with no disrespect to Austin Hays, who could well cement himself there in 2018).
The Cards may be reluctant to part with someone of Reyes’ upside or a pitcher like Weaver who shined so brightly down the stretch, but they have plenty of pieces to entice the Orioles. And, they could easily accommodate Machado’s desire to play shortstop by moving Paul DeJong to third base and/or dealing from the infield surplus that a Machado acquisition would create. For a team that just missed out on adding Giancarlo Stanton, acquiring Machado would be a strong fallback option, even if he comes as a short-term rental.
Plausible Landing Spots
Rosenthal noted in his report that Orioles owner Peter Angelos didn’t want to move Machado to the division-rival Yankees, but they have the farm system to make a Godfather offer and a newly vacated hole in their infield with today’s trade of Chase Headley to the Padres. Were it not for the reported reluctance on Angelos’ behalf, they’d merit mention alongside the Cards as one of the clearest fits for Machado.
It’s abundantly clear that the Angels have their sights set on returning to prominence in the AL West sooner rather than later. While they can’t offer Marte time at shortstop with Andrelton Simmons in tow, adding Machado would give the Halos one of the best defensive shortstop/third base combos of this generation. The Angels have an improving but still-not-elite farm, but they have some arms on the big league roster that could at least intrigue the Orioles. Andrew Heaney is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has four years of remaining control. Tyler Skaggs has had his own injury issues but has three years of control.
Weird Dark Horse Suggestions
The Rockies’ roster is stacked with controllable arms on the cusp of the big league roster and the team could view a Machado acquisition as a means of elevating them to the next level while they still have Nolan Arenado in the organization. Adding Machado at shortstop would likely push Trevor Story into a utility role, but having a versatile piece with that type of power would only seem to be a boon for the Rox.
The O’s and Nationals are hardly on the best of terms thanks to their ongoing MASN dispute, and in fact, the two teams have never brokered a trade since the Nats moved to D.C. However, Washington is committed to an aggressive bid at contending in their final guaranteed year of team control over Bryce Harper. The Nats are largely set in the outfield, but they could still shift Trea Turner back to center field and bump Michael Taylor to a fourth outfielder for one year in order to add a player of Machado’s caliber.
No Clear Need
It’s borderline insane to suggest that any team “doesn’t need” Machado; a player of his caliber would improve virtually any team, and he could be deployed at either third base or shortstop next season, so there’d be a variety of ways for him to slot into a new team’s lineup.
Still, teams such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Indians and Mariners lack a pressing need on the left side of the infield and/or already have long-term commitments already in place there. (Cleveland may also have some financial trepidation.) Any team could reasonably look at a Machado rental as a unique opportunity to acquire one of the game’s elite talents, but there’d be enough moving parts involved in talks with any of these teams to make each of them seem unlikely.
Long Shots That Merit Mention
The Giants are another club that missed out on Stanton and have an obvious spot at which they can work Machado into the infield. The hot corner was a black hole in San Francisco last year, as Giants third basemen combined to post a putrid .216/.268/.300 batting line on the season as a whole. Much as the Giants might love the notion of installing Machado at third base though, their best offer could almost certainly topped by an interested party with a better system.
Machado is an upgrade over Jorge Polanco at short for the Twins, who could push Polanco to third base and Miguel Sano to DH. But, the Twins are in dire need of arms themselves. It’d be a surprise to see them part with near-MLB ready arms in a trade to rent Machado for one year. The Brewers are in a similar spot in the sense that while Machado would upgrade over Orlando Arcia, adding pitching is a priority in Milwaukee. Taking a one-year shot on Machado for either Midwest club seems unlikely.
The Mets have plenty of uncertainty in their infield as David Wright and T.J. Rivera both try to return from injuries and Amed Rosario looks to establish himself as a big leaguer. But, New York’s pitching staff was in shambles last season due to injuries, and the depth they once had in the upper levels of the minors has thinned out. It’s tough to see them depleting their supply for a short-term add.
Up in Boston, the Red Sox are known to be looking to add some power to the lineup, but they’re currently penciling Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts in at third and short. Outside of moving Devers across the diamond to first base or a trade of Bogaerts (which some have speculated about but has yet to emerge as a serious possibility), it’s tough to envision that fit. Elsewhere in the AL East, the Blue Jays have their own superstar third baseman in Josh Donaldson with Troy Tulowitzki and Aledmys Diaz in the mix at shortstop.
Everth Cabrera and Khalil Greene are the only two Padres shortstops to post seasons of 3+ fWAR in the past two decades. San Diego has a glaring need at shortstop and a stacked farm system, but it’s still tough to see A.J. Preller depleting the farm he’s built up for a one-year addition of Machado in a year the team has little hope of contending.
Oakland has a steady shortstop in the form of Marcus Semien and will struggle to contend in a stacked AL West division as they wait on their young core to further cement itself in the Majors. The A’s have made some surprise veteran additions in the past and made a serious push for Edwin Encarnacion last offseason, but they’re a substantial reach in this regard.
The Phillies and Braves, too, figure to be oft-mentioned candidates to make a play for Machado. Philadelphia has widely been considered to be a likely pursuer of Machado in free agency, and new Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has a vacancy at third base and a reputation for making big splashes. But neither team was competitive in 2017, neither seems likely to push past the Nationals atop the division and both would be changing course somewhat from rebuilds by flipping long-term talent for short-term gain.
Out of the Picture
Teams that are just embarking on lengthy rebuilds and/or face significant payroll restrictions can more or less be ruled out entirely. The Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Rays and Pirates don’t seem possible by almost any stretch of the imagination. (And, clearly, there’s been some imagination stretching in some of the above-portrayed scenarios.) The Reds and White Sox are further along in the rebuilding process than Detroit, Kansas City or Miami, but neither club makes sense as an ultimate landing spot. The Diamondbacks have a weak farm with several infield options on the left side already, and they’re up against a rather substantial payroll crunch that could make Machado’s $17MM+ salary difficult to stomach.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
shoheiohtahnyy
I don’t see a how a trade works without an extension. Teams aren’t gonna give into the steep asking price for 1 year of him with no guarantees he will re-sign.
baseballpun
Stickin’ with that name, huh?
bruinsfan94 2
Bold move, really committed to Ohtani NYY 2023. Lets see how it pans out.
jordan4giants 2
I could see the Cards being a very logical trade partner, especially if they can work out a trade that nets them Britton and Manny. While both have 1 year of control, they are only a few pieces away from being a serious contender, in my opinion.
baseballpun
Gonna be more than a few pieces away in 2019 if they do that and don’t extend Machado.
Baltsportsfan
How do you figure? Teams make those at the deadline if you do it now you would get him for the entire season. Makes more sense than doing it in July.
shoheiohtahnyy
Remind me the last time a player of Mannys caliber and age were dealt at the deadline?
dimitriinla
Absolutely, plus there’s a lot of competition for him now, which further ups his potential asking price.
JohnnyV
Can ya’ imagine dis? Manny AND Stanton AND Judge. What it is, Mama. Right On! Dat would be bananas.
dirtydan
Learn English please.
chadkaboom
dag yo….that is whack you be trippin homie
stwawk
That sounds like a brilliant idea. In fact, how about each of the 28 other teams donate their best player to the Yankees? Now “dat would be bananas!”
In fact, with the venerable Yankees and all their glory, why does MLB even need the other 29 teams? The Yankees, after all, are entitled to a yearly world championship. The other 29 teams, each of whom the Yankees enjoy fleecing (not that those other 29 seem to mind. See Stanton, Giancarlo and whomever else they gobble up next), are obligated to help the Yankees toward their quest for glory, right?
dynamite drop in monty
Machado to NYY for a bowling ball bag and Clint Frazier’s shampoo.
John W
Mozeliak has made it clear he is not trading all of his top prospects for 1 year rental. Just because Steve Adams thinks that makes sense , please get real
stl_cards16 2
Steve Adams didn’t say they were trading all of their top prospects. The Cardinals have shown a lot of interest in Donaldson and he would be a rental.
It’s time to make a move. Having the best depth in the league doesn’t help. Go get Machado and if he can’t be resigned, there’s plenty of other options to improve the team next winter.
Android Dawesome
Best depth? Isnt their farm system ranked like 13th in baseball?
stl_cards16 2
Farm system rankings are a combination of many things. I would disagree with anyone ranking them outside the top 10, but it doesn’t really matter to me.
The Cardinals are one of the deepest teams in baseball with MLB ready talent. I’m not claiming they are superstars or anything, but consolidating some of that depth into one or two high(er) upside players is the goal of the off-season. This isn’t some secret.
brucewayne
I thought it was 11 , but close enuff !
cards81
Amen stl_cards 16….viva el birdies did an article in which the cardinals are ranked 3rd as pitching is concerned in the minor leagues…seriously the cardinals minor league system is highly underrated…not to mention they dominated in the minors this season…I think they are rated overall 11th but that to me is a joke
Steve Adams
When did I say they’d trade “all of their top prospects” for Machado? It’s a one-year rental. He would in no way require a complete gutting of their farm system.
stl_cards16 2
Time for the Cardinals to pull the trigger. Flaherty, Alcantara, Sierra for Machado. We’ll worry about 2019 when it gets to that point.
citycat
Reyes, O’Neill and Hudson
jred1979
Was this a joke?
At 6.3 projected WAR, there’s only about $35-40 million in excess value. A grade 55 hitting prospect is $38 million (per fangraphs a few years ago). A grade 60 pitcher (Reyes) is $34 million in excess value.
Flaherty and Alcantra and a mid-level prospect would probably be plenty ($36 million in excess value for grades 55 and 50), maybe Flaherty/Hudson. I suspect that if a OF is tossed in, it’s more likely to be someone from the major league roster (Piscotty).
stl_cards16 2
I think his is about right. Flaherty and Alcantara probably match up closely to the value. Add in a little more to make up for the supplemental pick the Orioles could have.
CJ81
If you can keep weaver and reyes out of it go for it. If something like flaherty, hudson, and oneil are good enough pull the trigger.
thesheriffisnear
As a Cubs fan, I hope the Cardinals do pull the trigger. They need much more than a rental bat.
Jo Daddy
Waiting to read headlines that Dodgers trade for Ozuna.
Bombo Rivera
Funny that you didn’t mention the DBacks. They have some young pitching and ketel marte at SS.
RedFeather
Cardinals could easily trade for Manny and offer and extension. If they are serious, they need to meed with his camp first and see if he has the interested in an extension beginning this season. They had the $ to take on Stanton’s contract. Make a trade offer contingent on an extension. Offer 8 years at 240 million or 10 years at 285.
nashvillecardsfan
That won’t be enough. He’s pretty much guaranteed that as a floor when he hits free agency. Minimum offer begins with a “4”.
RedFeather
I honesty dont think Harper or Machado will get anywhere near 400 million. If anything those would be “starting points”.. We all though Pujols was going to get 350 million- that did pan out
nashvillecardsfan
I can honestly say you are wrong. There’s no way he doesn’t enter the open market without a guaranteed HUGE contract.
stl_cards16 2
Yeah to get him to pass n FA, it’s definitely going to take 10 years $375MM and that would probably have to include a couple opt-out.
I love prospecrs, but I would absolutely love to trade for Machado, even if it ends up being for only 1 season.
baseballpun
If the Cards think they can keep him for less than $350 (with opt outs), they shouldn’t even bother.
RedFeather
Well there hasnt been any reports that he wouldnt be willing to agree to an extension if the price is right and he wants to play in STL. (or wherever else he may go)
B3rryP3pcid
I would have zero reservations offering a 10 yr/ 370 with an opt out at year 4 and year 7, Backload the contract and everyone wins
gorav114
I’m good with trading him as an O’s fan knowing he will not resign with them anyway, but will certainly miss watching him play everyday. Elite skill and he’s setup to have his best season yet in ’18
nashvillecardsfan
Listen. I’m a Cardinals fan and I really want Machado. But he isn’t forgoing his FA opportunities for a non competitive market rate deal. It just ain’t gonna happen.
Benklasner
Its gonna take more than that to getbhim to skip the open market. Probably like 12/380 with an opt out after 4
Dannydeman
I have heard a lot of media outlets mention the Red Sox and day that there is little chance because of in division and not a great fit players wise.
Is everyone forgetting after the drama between Machado and the red sox this year he said,” he has lost all respect for the Red Sox organization”. I would assume that would be one of the biggest reasons and yet it is never mentioned
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Padres, Phillies and Braves should be among the “out of the picture” teams.
Padres2019ha
Why, he’s only 25. will be 26-27 by the time they want to compete and have tiny payrolls as we speak.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Because they aren’t contending in 2018. If they want him they should just sign him in a year and keep all their prospects.
Pax vobiscum
In the event a trade [partner is able to work out an extension.
jred1979
Unless you’re getting a window, “in the event … work out an extension” makes no sense. You need to be a lot closer to contention if you’re going to trade the future for a gamble.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Son, if Machado were willing to take an extension the Orioles wouldn’t be looking to trade him in the first place.
thetruth 2
Maybe they can’t afford it and another team can, or he might not want to sign with them.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
“Yeah, why not? This is the organization I play for, this is the organization I love.”
Yeah, really sounds like a guy who doesn’t want to stay in Baltimore LOL!
If he wanted to extend, it would have happened by now.
brucewayne
Dude! How many times have you cut
brucewayne
and pasted this same BS
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
The same number of times people have cut and pasted the same B.S. saying the Phillies or White Sox should trade for Machado.
And why do you post half your comment in one comment and half in another?
jimmertee
I don’t read posts where someone is suggested a fantasy trade of one player for another. Those posts are useless and never correct. I do read posts where a player is suggested to be traded, but not for another specfic player.
brucewayne
I don’t do that myself, it does it on the app on my phone! I think it has something to do with the service. Why do u care? Not really ur business !
Pax vobiscum
Why would than be?
swanhenge
The Os better temper their expectations. No GM in his right mind is gonna ship that much back in exchange for ONE guaranteed year of Machado. No way.
Any agent worth his cufflinks will want to take him out on the open market after next season. Maybe give the 72-hour negotiating window, but that’s still no guarantee.
yanks02026
Pretty sad a owner cares more about not wanting to trade a player to a rival then to actually help make his team better.
RedFeather
Wow dude you guys just got Stanton.. easy. Thats pretty much the “norm” when trading player in baseball. Ever since the Lou Brock trade. Thanks again cubbies!!!
davbee
Helping a division rival doesn’t help make you better.
baseballpun
Let’s say the O’s trade Machado to the Yankees. In 2020, when the O’s are ready to compete again, the Yankees are winning an extra 6 games b/c they have Machado. The O’s are winning an extra three games with the pieces the Yankees gave them. The O’s are better. They’re still worse off in relation to the Yankees, who in all likelihood they must beat to make the playoffs, and definitely must beat to win the division.
citizen
did his agent write this? scott boras, you on that typewriter again>?
jred1979
Machado dropped Boras. He’s represented by Dan Lazano.
angels in Anaheim
Manny should go to the Angels. He is a perfect fit.
ctguy
He’s a perfect fit for several teams
Kslaw
Wants to play SS so its not a perfect fit for him. The Angles yes.
cardfan2011
If they extended him, then sure I’d love it if the Cardinals got Machado; otherwise it doesn’t make sense to give up that much for one year
petefrompp
well if you want a stud at SS or 3B – you have to at least see what it costs. No doubt Machado will hit free agency- but if you have a need and fill it now you can at post a qualifying offer. Whats a season of Machado and the draft compensation worth.
Would Machado increase the Cards palyoff opportunity? I think yes he would, and it probably won’t cost a ton of prospects- but it will cost.
johansantana17
What about Arizona or Cleveland?
Solaris601
Right! Neither team was mentioned in any capacity despite the fact CLE is in win now mode and have no set starter at 3B. Tribe could offer Salazar and any number of top SP prospects in the system. I couldn’t see them doing it, though, unless they can first unload Kipnis who is an expensive spare part for them right now.
ef1t
both teams were mentioned. Im pretty sure the only team not mentioned was the Texas Rangers.
indiansfan44
Cleveland was mentioned as part of the “no clear need” section. It said that the teams in that section already had players committed to the positions or had no pressing needs there. They also mentioned the Indians could have issues with the salary.
I agree the second part would be an issue but they don’t have anything guaranteed for 3rd. Ramirez is most likely starting at 2nd and they have a handful of unproven minor league players to try and fill the hole. He would be a great fit and we have the pitching the 0’s want like you pointed out.
The problem is the control. They have made it a stated goal when looking for players to target multi-year control during trades with Bruce being the exception due to the low cost. And credit to the Dolans for raising the payroll and trying to field a winning team while the window is open but the kind of deal they are talking to extend himnis never coming from this ownership.
osfandan
Everyone saying the Orioles won’t get much for a year of Machado….do you really follow baseball? Did you see what HALF a year of Chapman got the Yankees?
swanhenge
I agree to a point. There is decidedly much more urgency on mid-season trades. The Cubs needed load up for the second half push and sent a boatload for Chapman. Off season scenarios aren’t quite a desperate.
cazzatta
Sure, do the best you can now, but O’s best deal will probably come at the trade deadline in July.
imindless
I dont seethe angels needing him. Would rather have donaldson for less cost. Dont think angels could pull off with out maybe maitan.
mets2424
Machado will be a met u heard it here
virginiascopist
Machado for Tebow straight up.
ef1t
no way the Broncos do that.
Brewersnation
Lewis Brinson Brewers number 1 prospect, Of Domingo Santana, and another minor leaguer from the Brewers system. Both Brinson and Santana are controllable. The Brewers will have the cap space for an extension, Move Travis Shaw to 1b and have Eric Thames/Brett Phillips plantain Lf. Just a suggestion
imindless
Brinson is a bust. Also no way does brewers trade 2 outfielders for a 3rd baseman who wont resign.
Brewersnation
Wishful thinking on my part
dazedatnoon
so move 2 top pitching prospects for Machado. get a 2nd round pick back when he walks at the end of the year. Not terrible cost for a full year of production compared to some of the stuff that happens for rentals at the deadline.
gorav114
TJ surgery always a bit scary but the O’S would be crazy to pass up a deal with Reyes in it.
CincyHomer
Reds deal Peraza and a couple High A SPs which we actually have a lot of. Let Manny play SS to showcase his skills and make a run at it w Votto. Pick up a SP rental if we’re in it at the break maybe get lucky if Homer and Disco bounce back healthy. Worst case, flip him at the deadline and at least you gave the fans some fun for a few months while Nick Senzel and Suarez get ready to man the left side for the foreseeable future.
Lets live a little Dick Williams!!
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Not being serious here. Just for fun.
Machado and Britton to the cubs
Schwarber, Russell, and Happ to the Orioles
Russell can play 2nd and SS. Happ can play 1st 2nd and all 3 OF spots
Machado would sign a 3 year extension 3/78
Britton would do the same. For 3/55.
Machado can play SS,and third. Baez can play all 4 infield spots. Bryant has moved around 3rd,1st, all 3 OF spots.
It was just for fun as i said. It’s never gonna happen.
Rather keep the 3 cubs I mentioned.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
What a waste of a comment
brucewayne
LoL! Yup!
JKB 2
That does not sound fun. First Machado is not signing a 3 year extension when he is one year from a 7-10 year mega deal.
So then he is gone after one year and so is Schwarber and Russell and Happ and all those years of control. Cubs window closed then.
In fact that is the kind of “fun” that gets an entire front office fired.
Why the heck would the Cubs want Machado anyway
brucewayne
Cuz Manny would be better at SS than Russell
jimmertee
The Orioles aren’t getting a boatload for Machado, just like the Jays aren’t going to get a boatload of prospects for Donaldson. Yes, they will get something but the market value is going to be a lot less than most of the suggestions in this chat.
As far as the notion of a 10/370 contract, we’ll see. MLB finances are at a peak right now and contracts reflect that. The economics of baseball are about to take a huge hit. The value of teams will plummet as advertising rates, cable rights fees plummet through the floor in the next few years as the overall economy plummets. Anyone locked into megacontracts are going to be in trouble. Wait for it, it will happen. ESPN and its decreasing membership and finances are an excellent example of the upcoming shift in sports economics.
czontixhldr
What evidence do you have that the overall economy will plummet?
jimmertee
The signs of a plummet are there. The business cycle is at its peak. The stock market indicates this. Underlying metrics aren’t there to support the runup. Even the bitcoin bubble is an indicator. It is not a matter of if, but when. Never mind the gutting of ESPN.
I [and others] project a 4200 Dow, but the question is when. This cycle can’t carry much longer so I am projecting 2018-2019 when the decline begins.. Then it will be an estimated 5 year cycle to the bottom.
Jeff Ganeles
Will someone please explain to me how Angelos insisting that a team not flip Machado to the Yankees is not blatant collusion?? Commissioner???
its3am
I don’t believe this is on Manny so much as the completely inept Orioles organization. If they had any intention of paying him what’s he’s worth it would have been done. There’s zero reason this hasn’t been done if they wanted to do it. The ridiculous money they’ve given Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo now straps them. Manny should have been locked up before those horrible deals were forged. That said, if I’m Manny, and I see how year after year the team refuses to add credible arms and adds nothing but light-hitting middle IFs, back-of-the-rotation starters, beyond-prime bats and Rule 5 guys, I wouldn’t be too keen on sticking around, either.
Philadelphia will have less than $15m in guaranteed salary going into the ’19 season and I think they make a serious go at him, possibly Harper as well.