If you match up unsigned pitchers in our MLB free agent tracker with Jon Roegele’s excellent running list of those who had Tommy John surgery, it appears that 33 of the 92 hurlers on the market have that famous elbow procedure in their history:
Al Alburquerque
Brett Anderson
John Axford
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Jorge de la Rosa
Jumbo Diaz
Brian Duensing
Scott Feldman
Neftali Feliz
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
A.J. Griffin
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Greg Holland
Drew Hutchison
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Dustin McGowan
Jason Motte
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Seung-hwan Oh
Zach Putnam
Bruce Rondon
Trevor Rosenthal
Anibal Sanchez
Shae Simmons
Drew Storen
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez
Meanwhile, a look at the 51 pitchers who have signed free agent contracts shows that 11 of them are Tommy John surgery survivors. Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, and Pat Neshek all signed healthy contracts, with their procedures many years in the rearview. In addition, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda, who both had the surgery last July, set a new precedent by signing $10MM deals. Smyly and Pineda have basically been written off for 2018, but the Cubs and Twins found a $10MM guarantee to be a worthy gamble in the hopes of full, effective 2019 seasons.
Of the 27 pitchers on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, 10 have had Tommy John surgery. That includes four of the top 11 free agents of any type: Darvish, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb. Oddly enough, each member of that quartet had Tommy John in 2015 within an eight-month span. MLBTR ranked Darvish as the best available free agent this winter, and he’s vying to land the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher who previously had Tommy John surgery. Here’s my attempt at the all-time top 20 contracts pitchers received post-TJS:
1. Stephen Strasburg – $175MM (extension with Nationals May 2016)
2. Jordan Zimmermann – $110MM (free agent contract with Tigers Nov 2015)
3. Adam Wainwright – $97.5MM (extension with Cardinals Mar 2013)
4. A.J. Burnett – $82.5MM (free agent contract with Yankees Dec 2008)
T-5. Anibal Sanchez – $80MM (free agent contract with Tigers Dec 2012)
T-5. Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (free agent contract with Marlins Jan 2016)
7. C.J. Wilson – $77.5MM (free agent contract with Angels Dec 2011)
8. Danny Duffy – $65MM (extension with Royals Jan 2017)
9. Mark Melancon – $62MM (free agent contract with Giants Dec 2016)
10. A.J. Burnett – $55MM (free agent contract with Blue Jays Dec 2005)
11. Ryan Dempster – $52MM (free agent contract with the Cubs Nov 2008)
12. Rich Hill – $48MM (free agent contract with Dodgers Dec 2016)
T-13. Francisco Liriano – $39MM (free agent contract with Pirates Dec 2014)
T-13. Josh Johnson – $39MM (extension with Marlins Jan 2010)
15. Tyler Chatwood – $38MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2017)
16. Hyun-Jin Ryu – $36MM (contract with Dodgers involving posting system Dec 2012)
17. Rafael Soriano – $35M (free agent contract with Yankees Jan 2011)
18. Kerry Wood – $32.5MM (extension with Cubs Jan 2004)
19. John Lackey – $32MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2015)
T-20. Scott Feldman – $30MM (free agent contract with Astros Jan 2014)
T-20. John Smoltz – $30MM (free agent contract with Braves Dec 2001)
If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact us.
Chen getting it twice… I think.
I hope I’m wrong.
Chen’s status rehabbing from that partially torn UCL via non-surgical option is as clear as mud.
He’s trying his hardest to avoid getting Tommy John but I didn’t know he already had it done before.
I wonder if the fact he had it performed in the past, influenced the decision to treat his Partially torn UCL with rest and rehab, instead of Tommy John Surgery.
What do you think, Tim?
I’d be interested to see numbers on how many guys who opt for rest and rehab end up ultimately having it done. I suspect there are also a lot of guys who just end up flaming out, so maybe a better question would be how many who opt for rest and rehab ever end up being productive pitchers again without the surgery?
I believe a guest writer did an article on that a while back. Can’t remember when though
Lot of current/ex Cardinals on that list on top. Never realized how many pitchers have been injured through their system. Giving the Mets a run for it…
4 on the top list. 1 on the bottom.
Actually 6 on the top list.
Still only seeing 4. Who am I missing? Jamie, Lance, Motte and Rosenthal.
Oh
When did Oh have TJS?
Is that a good thing or a bad thing. A bad thing that they have all had it or a good sign that they have come back and gotten paid which generally means they came back pretty strong afterwards. I give props to their medical training staff!!
One additional column is needed, the column that rates each pitcher’s success or failure after having TJS?
I would rate only 1 of these pitchers as being worth their big contracts after TJS—Strasburg.
Off the top of my head, Burnett probably belongs in that conversation. Think he had TJ in the early 2000s.
Wainwright came in 2nd in CYA in 2012, first year back from TJ and 3rd in 2013, both before signing his extension but after his TJ surgery. Since his signing, he has provided 10 war, which puts the payout under $10mil per win assuming he is exactly replacement level for this coming season. I wouldn’t call that a bad deal especially considering he lost nearly all of 2015 to a torn Achilles.
While one can question the value of a one inning reliever, it appears that the Yankees got pretty much what they paid for in Soriano. A bit more actually, as he was signed to set up for Rivera but got bumped up to closer when Rivera was out for the year. One of my least favorite players to watch but the Yanks have no complaints.
Not on the list bc he was cheap, but Colby Lewis was definitely worth his contract after having TJS at 16
Liriano was pretty good for the pirates for a few seasons of that contract.
Wow! Even if we’re being very generous, exactly zero of those contracts have been worth the money so far. Strasburg’s is off to a good start, but he’s got a long way to go. Ryu’s looks good if you willfully ignore the $27M posting fee, very bad otherwise.
(Used bRef WAR for a rough approximation of value accumulated through the duration of the contract.)
My Tigers are the worst offender. $190 million for Zimmerman contract (0.5 WAR so far) and Sanchez extension (0.5 WAR).
To date, Wainwright has provided 10 war with missing a season and still having another season to go. That comes out to less than $10mil per which is a value contract in today’s game.
Teams weren’t paying $10M per WAR in 2013 though, more like $7M, so it was a significant overpay at the time.
Ryan Dempster, who wasn’t on the first version of the posted list, was definitely a good value for the dollar.
I believe Chatwood had two TJ procedures
Mmmmm delicious clam chowder
Added Ryan Dempster to the list.
I’m pretty sure Darren Dreifort had a TJ surgery before he signed his 5 year 55M contract. He had two, his second in 2001, his contract was signed in 2000. John Smoltz also had a 3/30 contract signed in 2002, with a 12M option, not sure on what the buyout was. His TJ surgery was in 2000.
When did Oh have TJS?
Does the phrase “Tommy John survivor” seem just a bit strong? They didn’t have cancer…