Coming off an 80-win campaign, its fourth straight sub-.500 season, Tampa Bay entered the winter in payroll-trimming mode. The Rays opened last season with a paltry payroll of just over $70MM, and if they’re not even willing to spend that amount in 2018, it’ll make competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox all the more difficult. It’s possible, then, that the Rays will opt for a major rebuild in the coming months. So far this offseason, they’ve already subtracted third baseman and longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria, who went to the Giants in a late-December, five-player trade. Odds are that Longoria won’t be the last notable veteran the Rays jettison over the next few months – especially considering they still have multiple trade candidates who would garner strong returns, as you’ll see below.
One-Year Rentals
Denard Span, OF ($13MM, including a $4MM buyout in 2019): The Rays acquired Span in the Longoria trade to help balance out money, so they could flip the 33-year-old before he ever plays a game for them. However, Span didn’t do his trade value any favors in 2017, combining roughly league-average offense (.272/.329/.427 in 542 plate appearances) with the ugliest defensive showing of his career (minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating). Span may have been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors last season, likely his last as a center fielder. So, Span’s now a defensively limited corner outfielder without a big bat. That’s not a great combination, especially at his price tag and with so many corner options remaining in free agency. In the event the Rays shop Span but don’t find a taker for him, the Tampa Bay native would be thrilled to suit up for his hometown team.
Wilson Ramos, C ($10.5MM): Ramos wasn’t effective in 2017, nor are there many contending teams looking for short-term upgrades at catcher (for those that are, free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila could be more appealing). Those factors, not to mention Ramos’ salary, figure to make him a tough sell. Ramos deserves credit for returning last season from the torn ACL he suffered in September 2016, but his offensive production took a dive (he logged a 124 wRC+ in 2016 and a 92 wRC+ in 2017). The former National also endured an uncharacteristically poor defensive season and threw out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers (down from 37 percent the prior year).
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($5MM projected arbitration salary): The Marlins sent Hechavarria to the Rays in a payroll-cutting move last June, which should tell you he doesn’t have much trade value. Hechavarria has been an excellent defender of late (23 DRS, 27.9 UZR since 2015), though, and that could make him a target for a team in need of a slick-fielding infielder. Of course, Hechavarria’s inability to contribute offensively has somewhat undermined his terrific glove work. The 29-year-old owns a lifetime .255/.291/.345 batting line (granted, he hit a more respectable .261/.289/406 last season), and he doesn’t offer much power (.090 ISO) or base-stealing prowess (30 of 48 in his career).
Two Years Of Control
Jake Odorizzi, SP ($6.5MM projected salary): The Rays understandably want a respectable haul for the right-handed Odorizzi, who’s a proven big league starter with youth on his side (28 in March). Unfortunately for them, Odorizzi was a disappointment last year (4.14 ERA/5.43 FIP in 143 1/3 innings), thanks in part to injuries (he went on the disabled list once for a hamstring issue and another time on account of back problems), a career-worst walk mark (3.83 per nine) and a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.5 percent).
Both Odorizzi’s struggles last year and a lifetime groundball rate of 33.7 percent stand out as red flags, though he’s not far removed from a 2014-16 stretch in which he averaged 175 frames per season and pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.91 FIP. Given Odorizzi’s overall track record, the Rays shouldn’t have trouble finding a team for him if they’re motivated to ship him out.
Corey Dickerson, OF/DH ($6.4MM projected salary): Dickerson opened his career in impressive fashion as a Rockie from 2013-15, though the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from hitter-friendly Coors Field during that stretch. In 2016, his first year in Tampa Bay, Dickerson did little to quell concerns that he was a platoon bat and a product of the Mile High air, but he bounced back to a degree last season. The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod on the strength of a .312/.355/.548 first-half line, though his production dropped off sharply after mid-July (.241/.282/.408). Moreover, Statcast indicates Dickerson’s expected weighted-on base average (.310) paled in comparison to his actual wOBA (.350). There remain questions about Dickerson’s offensive game, then; on the positive side, Dickerson was similarly solid against both right- and left-handed pitchers for the first time in his career last season, and the advanced metrics (one DRS, 8.7 UZR) looked favorably on his defense from 2016-17. Still, this probably isn’t a player who’s teeming with trade value.
Brad Miller, IF ($4.4MM projected salary): The Rays may have shopped Miller, 28, before tendering him a contract last month. If they did, teams likely weren’t lining up for a player who trudged through a miserable, injury-affected 2017. After posting terrific power numbers (30 homers, .239 ISO) and hitting .243/.304/.482 as a first baseman/shortstop in 2016, he limped to a .201/.327/.337 line with nine HRs and a .136 ISO as a second baseman last season. While Miller is versatile defensively, he has never held his own anywhere with the glove. All things considered, there’s not much value here at the moment.
Dan Jennings, RP ($2.5MM projected salary): Tampa Bay was in the playoff race approaching last July’s non-waiver trade deadline, which led the club to ship a decent prospect – first baseman Casey Gillaspie – to the White Sox for the left-handed Jennings. The Rays fell apart over the season’s final couple months, making the acquisition somewhat of a waste. The club could now try to flip the inexpensive Jennings, who has held his own for most of his career. Jennings has fared nicely against both left- and right-handed hitters, having limited the former to a .307 wOBA and the latter to a .300 mark. While his lifetime strikeout and walk numbers aren’t palatable (7.31 K/9, 4.09 BB/9), Jennings has induced grounders at a 55.2 percent clip and managed a 2.90 ERA over 279 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 31-year-old may bring back something useful in a trade, then, if the Rays are inclined to move him.
Longer-Term Assets
Kevin Kiermaier, OF (controllable through 2023 for $60MM): There has been no real chatter this winter about the Rays dealing Kiermaier, whom they locked up to an extension prior to last season. Although the solid-hitting defensive maven seems likely to stick in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future, he’d certainly draw plenty of looks on the trade market. Dating back to 2014, his breakout season, Kiermaier ranks eighth among outfielders in fWAR (16.1), owing to his all-around game. Kiermaier, who will turn 28 in April, combined for ridiculous defensive numbers in center over the previous four seasons (103 DRS, 62.8 UZR) and complemented those with an above-average batting line (.262/.319/.431) and base-stealing ability (60 on 79 tries).
Chris Archer, SP (controllable through 2021 for $34MM): With Kiermaier unlikely to go anywhere, the 29-year-old Archer stands out as the crown jewel of the Rays’ realistic trade possibilities; more than that, the durable, hard-throwing righty’s track record and team-friendly contract combine to make him one of the game’s most valuable assets. As a result, the Rays could simply keep him and continue to benefit from his presence. But if they opt for a full-scale rebuild, aggressively shopping Archer would make sense. While it’s unclear how serious the Rays actually are about trading Archer, he has already garnered significant interest this offseason, unsurprisingly.
Alex Colome, RP ($5.5MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): A Colome trade looked like an inevitably entering the offseason, and multiple teams have aggressively pursued him recently, but no deal has come together yet. One of those suitors, Colorado, is likely out of the Colome market after signing fellow closer Wade Davis this week. Still, there are other teams with late-game needs – namely St. Louis – that could put together a package for the former starter. Colome, who turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, is coming off a league-best 47-save season (his second full-time campaign as a reliever), though he did see his other numbers fall off precipitously compared to 2016. His K/9 (11.28 to 7.83), BB/9 (2.38 to 3.11), swinging-strike percentage (15.1 to 11.6) and ERA (1.91 to 3.24) all went in the wrong direction last year.
Steven Souza, OF ($3.6MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): At least one team has checked in with the Rays about the righty-hitting Souza this offseason, but there’s no indication he’s going anywhere. The Rays would be selling high on the three-year veteran if they did part with him, though; despite hip problems, Souza’s fresh off a season in which he slashed .239/.351/.459 with personal bests in PAs (617), home runs (30), ISO (.220) walk rate (13 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent). It’s worth noting that Souza wasn’t nearly as effective in the two prior seasons, and his xwOBA (.334) fell well short of his actual wOBA (.353) in 2017. To his credit, the soon-to-be 29-year-old complemented his most recent output at the plate with plus defense (seven DRS, 4.3 UZR) in right field for the second straight season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wow I didn’t realize how horrible our players are until I read this article, every person listed it seemed is just sh– with nothing but constant negatives about them, even with these players I’d still take this roster and farm system over 3/4 of mlb teams
Vile squadron!
Believe it or not i feel if he’s still with Tampa and the White Sox are in the race i wouldnt be surprise White Sox get him
My head hurts from reading that.
With no character or space limits here, why can’t people form proper sentences, capitalize appropriately, and express their message in a complete thought?
There is hope that they’ll use their grammar skills while they’re typing….right?
(see what I did there….LOL)
People won’t speak correctly and you want them to type using proper grammar? Your funny.
“The white Sox are in the race” my brain exploded when I read that.
Same
The post-Friedman front office has been awful. Cash is terrible. Wish Vinick would buy the team, since the Lightning have been a model for how to run a sport’s franchise in the area.
Amen. Cash has got to be the worst manager in the game. He is only here because he is cheap…
and young
Just like my gf
Yahtzee!
X-girlfriend u jerk-i read that and your stuff is on fire in the alley!!
The post Friedman front office has done good if you ask me The Rays have been drafting better as of late and have built up the farm system into one of the best without doing a big rebuild.
This. It’s Friedman who had a horrible couple draft years before bolting for the big bucks.
His drafts weren’t horrible. Just the top picks. Examples: Keirmaier, Cobb, Moore, Faria, Snell; just to name a few.
Regarding Keirmaier……I know his defense is terrific, but to say he’s batting above league average at .262???? really!!! And that’s an average over 4 years…! IN 2016 he batted .246….certainly not league average.
His stolen base attempts last year were 23 attempts, and being caught 7 times….not exactly Rickey Henderson country.
Not too much pop either at the plate.
Good player for the Rays but certainly not an all-around all star.
2016 BA was .255, he has been a little above or below league average in batting.
Simple explanation rocky7:
Most analyst don’t judge a player’s offensive output by batting average only. There are a few other stats that you can employ that measure total offensive production versus league average. One of these stats is OPS+ (where 100 is league average and the higher is better). Using OPS+ Keirmaier was 14% better than league average in 2017 (114 OPS+). Over his career he has a 108 OPS+ so yes, he is without a doubt slightly above league average.
If you want a detailed explanation of OPS+ (and how it is determined) both the official MLB website and the fangraphs website have explanations and definitions. It is park adjusted as well.
No Bro…according to Baseball Reference, his BA was .246, not .255…..but really is there that much of a difference….9 points….still pretty lackluster.
Thanks for the explanation Southi, but my original comment was directed at what I believe was a little more direct in that his BA of .266, which was a composite over 4 years, was “league average” as written by Connor Byrne. Exactly in what “league” was that?
And his base stealing prowess was also mentioned, which looks rather lackluster also, given his most recent attempts vs. success in 2017.
There was no mention of other stats that might give a clue to his overall value which I still believe is overstated.
The “league” refers to the total major leagues. Keirmaier has only played since 2013 but played only one game that season and had no atbats. All of his offensive stats then come from 2014, 15, 16 and 17 (or the last four seasons).
I have no stake in an argument, but was only trying to explain where the league average stats come from. The stats are what they are. I don’t really see how numbers that have been adjusted for both park factors and normalized for the entire league can be questioned.
Most teams would consider Keirmaier an upgrade in CF. Most teams with a better player would be inclined to move that better player to a corner, due to his superior defense.
Over the past three seasons Giancarlo Stanton has posted 12.6 fWAR in 352 games while Kevin Kiermaier has posted 12..2 fWAR in 354 games.
For his career Kiermaier has posted an OPS+ of 108, including 114 last year, meaning that he hit 8 percent, and 14 percent, above the league average.
In 2017 the AL batting average, as a league, was .256. In 2016 The AL batting average was .257. In 2015 it was .255….you get the point though. The average baseball player’s batting average is in the mid .250s. And batting average is a pretty useless way to evaluate anything, I’ll agree. Kiermeier is better at getting on base and hitting for power than the average player, and his batting average is right in line with the average player, so he’s an above-average hitter.
Why do you think it would be better if Vinik bought the team? The Rays will still have the smallest revenue streams in the sport. They will still have one of the worst TV deals and play in a cheap stadium with a terrible location. None of that changes if Vinik or anybody else buys the Rays. Do you think anybody is going to come in, pay a over a billion dollars to buy the team and then raise payroll so they could start consistently losing money on their billion dollar investment?
When Sternberg bought the Rays, they were the worst franchise in MLB and possibly worst in all of North American sports. Sternberg built them into a perennial contender on the field. He also has made two major renovations to Tropicana field, in 2006 and 2013, in an attempt to make it more fan friendly. After having one of the most successful teams on the field for 6 years and revamping the stadium, the Rays were still bottom in attendance and revenue. I’m not sure what you think he should do differently or what someone like Vinik would do differently to make it better. The idea that the only thing holding this franchise back is ownership is laughable.
In theory, he’d get a stadium near the Lightning in Channelside. Plus, he hires better people and knows how to market to the area. Sternberg hasn’t been the worst owner, but he definitely is terrible at understanding the area. He says all the wrong things and almost willfully antagonizes, when even saying nothing would be better.
Sorry in advance for the long post.
Everybody always say they want people in power to be honest with them. Sternberg is always honest with the fans, but then the fans rip him for it. I would argue the problem isn’t so much Sternberg understanding the area as much as the area is terrible at understanding modern baseball and business economics.
How would you suggest Vinik would be better at marketing the Rays in their current situation that would lead to a significant increase in their revenues? Everybody always said if the Rays would build a winner, people would show up to the stadium. Sternberg built a team that reached the playoffs 4 out of 6 seasons and averaged over 90 wins/season and their attendance was still terrible. He put money into a dump of a stadium to enhance the fan and family experience multiple times over the past 12 year and the people of Tampa Bay responded by dressing up as blue chairs.
Sternberg would also like to build a stadium near the Channelside area, but if you listen to many sports fans in Tampa Bay, they are already bashing him about it. Ownership is not the problem and replacing Sternberg is not some magic pill that will make the Rays a WS winner. There is nobody out there who will spend $1+ billion on buying the Rays, then spend another $400-500+ million to build a stadium and in the mean time raise the Rays payroll up to league average while still bringing in less money than every other team in the sport.
Vinik was fortunate that he was able to buy the Lightning while the value was bottomed out. He was also fortunate that the Lightning purchase came with a huge amount of prime real estate, in a very undervalued and underutilized downtown market. He also plays in a relatively inexpensive sport and understood that investing in the Lightning was a good investment for his real Tampa business which is real estate development. Bob Buckhorn becoming Tampa’s Mayor was also a stroke of fortune for Vinik and his re-development dream for downtown Tampa. Unfortunately for the Rays, none of these circumstances will directly benefit them.
Puzzled as to why TB tendered Hechevarria. Seems like they could’ve signed a less expensive middle IF who could hit and still field well enough to contribute the same overall value as Hechevarria.
Not reallt $4 million for Hech is a steal they way he plays defense.
Hechavarria is good with the glove, but unfortunately he gives all that value back with the bat. He is basically the anti-Matt Kemp and over the past 3 seasons, he is a bottom 10 hitter in all of baseball. He’s not quite as bad as Alcides Escobar, but he has a long way to go to reach Jace Peterson offensively.
Its people like you that really make me question fans
What about Adames? Does TB give Willy a chance to win the SS gig in ST? No need to bring someone else in. Heshevarria can be an IF/Util guy if Adames hits better than him.
Very unlikely Adames will be starting out of spring training, but I have to assume he’ll be up for good in June once the super 2 cutoff passes.
I forgot Arroyo came up as a SS as well. What’s the deal with this Schimpf kid? Can he hit?
That’s been my assumption as well.
Schimpf looks like he is probably best suited as a LH platoon 3B or maybe 2B. He looks like his glove lags behind the bat, but he has always been able to hit RHP. There is value in a bat first LH Util IF who makes the league min. I’ll gladly take a player that has already hit 20 HR and put up 2.5 fWAR in only 330 PA back in 2016.
Typo alert: Jennings is a lefty.
Moving Archer, Odorizzi, and Colome seem like no-brainers. Moving Ramos and Span would seem incredibly difficult. Even Dickerson would seem a little difficult to move, but maybe they could be packaged with an arm?
Colome, Ramos, and a lower-level prospect to St. Louis for Kelly and O’Neill?
Archer and Span to Philadelphia for Moniak, Sanchez, and De Los Santos?
Odorizzi and Dickerson to Chicago Cubs for Albertos and Lange?
This is just rough speculation, but these ideas don’t feel like much of a stretch.
Giving Miller a chance to rebound would seem wise, given the abundance of first basemen still available via free agency, and Hechavarria is probably better off sticking around as insurance for Adames (and Robertson).
Deals like this could save Tampa money and net them decent returns that could have them right back in contention in a couple of years.
Rays aren’t trading Archer unless they get a massive package in return, it would maks no sense to trade Archer with the Rays having some good players in triple a
That would be a massive package, and apart from Adames and their pitching, their AAA players don’t offer much hope for 2018.