The White Sox haven’t been shy about blowing up their major league team lately. Within the past 13 months, GM Rick Hahn has shipped out nearly half the players who were on the club’s 25-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. Most notably, Chicaco was able to land killer hauls for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana.
The teardown has resulted in a tidal wave of incredible young talent. Yoan Moncada, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are already playing at the MLB level, and the club has three top 25 overall prospects still waiting in the wings. However, as one might imagine, the club is still not ready to contend. Player development isn’t always linear, and it will take at least a couple of years for the newfound cavalry to arrive from the farm system, let alone find success in the majors. As such, the White Sox are likely to continue trading away major league pieces with limited team control in order to add talent they can count on during their next window of contention.
Here’s a list of remaining assets that the South Siders might consider moving in the coming months…
Two Years of Control
Jose Abreu, 1B ($17.9MM projected arb salary): Since coming to Chicago from Cuba, Abreu has been an offensive force for the White Sox, evidenced by his .301/.359/.524 batting line and 139 wRC+ with the organization. He’s averaged 31 homers and 665 plate appearances across his four major league seasons, making him one of the most reliable offensive players in the game. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently profiled his trade market, listing the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies among his potential suitors. Abreu’s expensive salary (which will likely get another hefty boost in 2019) limits his trade value, but there’s still a clear surplus here. A crowded first base market complicates things a bit, but he could still draw plenty of interest from other clubs.
Avisail Garcia, OF ($6.7MM projected arb salary): Garcia enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017 after shedding some weight during the 2016-2017 offseason. The right-handed-hitting outfielder was in contention for the AL batting title for most of the year (thanks in part to a .392 BABIP), and was worth 4.2 fWAR overall. A while back, I broke down his hypothetical trade market, listing the Indians, Rockies and Diamondbacks as potential landing spots.
Rival organizations will obviously be skeptical about Garcia’s ability to repeat this performance considering his career 90 wRC+ prior to last season. Oddly, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity were basically in line with his 2016 figures. Still, it would be irresponsible for teams to write his 2017 season as entirely a fluke; Garcia did trade a few ground balls for fly balls and improve his contact rate, after all.
Longer-Term Assets
Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021. $1.25MM buyout on 2020-2021 options): A quick look at Jones’ numbers since his return from Tommy John surgery makes his contract look like a steal, particularly considering the lucrative deals given out to relievers so far this offseason. However, the righty reliever is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason after missing most of 2017 due to nerve repositioning surgery. He’ll likely need to reestablish his value before the White Sox can move him. A return to his 2016 form, however, would put Jones in the upper echelon of MLB relievers, and send his trade value through the roof.
Yolmer Sanchez, 2B ($2.1 projected arb salary for 2018): Formerly known as Carlos Sanchez, the switch-hitting second baseman rebranded himself in 2017. While it may have created moments of confusion for more casual White Sox fans, they’re just fine it that considering his improvements on the field. This past season, Sanchez hit .267/.319/.413 while playing excellent defense at the keystone. The 25-year-old Venezuela native was worth 8 defensive runs saved in 620 innings and ranked second in UZR/150 among MLB second baseman (minimum 500 innings). With four years of team control remaining, it’s certainly possible that Sanchez could be around for the next competitive White Sox team. However, he could yield plenty of value in a trade.
Carlos Rodon, LHP ($2MM projected arb salary for 2018): In all seriousness, Rodon probably won’t be traded any time soon. After an injury-plagued 2017 season that ended with shoulder surgery, no team will likely be willing to give up the prospects it would take to pry him out of Chicago’s hands. However, he’s on this list simply for the possibility that he could reestablish value prior to the coming season’s trade deadline. While the former number three overall pick might miss a portion of 2018, he comes with enormous upside. With the market for pitching being what it is, trading Rodon could provide an enormous boost to an already-strong farm system. Of course, the White Sox would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to consider moving him, as they can still retain him through 2021. Still, the club was content to move Jose Quintana at last year’s deadline, so Rodon is at least worth a mention on this list.
Salary Dump Candidates
James Shields, RHP ($21MM salary for 2018, $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout): Any trade involving Shields would probably involve the White Sox sending some money along with him. The right-hander has an ERA well over 5.00 since coming to Chicago, and has walked over four batters per nine innings pitched during that time. His numbers in five September starts this past season were more palatable, however, and it’s worth noting that the White Sox are only on the hook for about half of Shields’ 2018 salary. Perhaps some team will be willing to take a chance on him as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a one-year piece; his 2019 club option is highly unlikely to be exercised.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If the WS don’t trade Abreu by March, they’ll probably be looking into extending him through the beginning of their competitive window. 68/4 should do it.
Santana got 3/60. I think Abreu does better than that.
Not enough. $100M plus.
Easily 4/100 if he keeps up the durability and performance levels the next couple years.
$25MM for a clubhouse leader and consistent impact bat seems fair
You’re not even at the $20 million AAV that both Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion received. That’s a non-starter.
And Abreu will probably average $20 million for his arb years.
Would extend Abreu four years, he would play the last year of the contract as a 36 year old. Abreu is a stud hitter. I can live without Avisal. Someone can use him. Hope he gets off to a good start and dump him for whatever it is Jerry and Kenny and Rick are looking for these days. Hurry up already.
With two years of control the WhiteSox should trade Abreau now, gain more prospect capital for that juggernaut. King Hahn has done a great job so far.
They should also trade for a package of Kemp/Grandal/prospects. They have the payroll to burn and they could add even more top prospects or even flip Grandal to a contending team for more prospects.
Thoughts?
No use for Kemp. His contract doesn’t fit their window and if they won’t contend this year (and likely not next year, either), then they don’t need to bring in anyone making $21.5M/yr. As for Grandal, they just got Wellington Castillo, so they don’t need him, either. If they got Kemp to cut him just so they could get prospects, that might work. Guess it depends on how desperate they are to unload him.
Kemp would not be good for the clubhouse. The last thing you need with a bunch of 20 year old’s who are seeing the majors for the first time is someone like him in the clubhouse. I think if Grandal had that much value the Dodgers would have already flipped him for prospects. I don’t think trading for either of them makes much sense for the rebuild.
Besides, even if Kemp were a viable option, they could just wait until the Dodgers cut him which has been the indication so far.
I’ll take Abreu in the Bronx if he can play 3rd
He can barely play 1st
He can only play 3rd if the field is in a mirror.
I see Thirdbaseman Mike Moustakas playing third for the Yankees cause he’s a Free Agent right now and that’s the only void they have right now in that position.
Abreu sits right around slightly below average in 1B defensive terms. Why would you want him to be an everyday 3B?
Good offseason so far. Lets see what other tricks the brain trust has up its sleeve.
Tricks? They had a trade involving the reigning NL MVP fall in to their laps. They didn’t do much if anything other than answer the phone. I would hardly call that a trick.
The assets have all been liquidated. Abreu and Avi are staying. Next phase: take on dead money paired with prospects. Matt Kemp would look good off our balance sheet and on theirs, but what prospects would it cost?
Wrong.
Not wrong but would take pretty prospects to take Kemp and most of his money but I’d worry about his attitude on a young team.
Kemp is on a young team in Atlanta already, how is that going? If Kemp were on the White Sox and displayed a poor attitude, Jerry and Kenny and Rick would run him out of town right quick enough. Look what happened to Sale and Eaton when they opened their mouths.
It’s going great for Atlanta since Kemp is on the Dodgers.
oh yeah
For Kemp’s full salary & Yasmani Grandal/prospects. I would be willing to start with either OF Alex Verdugo or P Yadier Alvarez as the headline prospect to go to the WhiteSox. With maybe three other lower level prospects.
Now thats a blockbuster, Sox can contimue to load up on prospects and get one of the games top catchers offensively/defensively
I would happily take that and cut Kemp the same day. I’m more than fine with “buying” top prospects by taking on Kemp’s contract, but based on what I’ve heard, I don’t want him anywhere near the Sox locker room.
Wouldn’t be the first time Jerry wrote out a check and a little note telling a player not to let the door hit them…
I can’t see the Dodgers doing this. They have the money to just eat the salary and keep the prospects.
For Matt Kemp? You are getting zero prospects
I think the point is the prospects go the other way – from the Dodgers.
It sucks that Abreu plays first, if he played anywhere else with that bat, he’d have been traded last winter.
I doubt it. 1st isn’t the issue with Abreu. He is as valuable to the White Sox in the clubhouse as he is on the field. Based on what has been said about him I think it would take a Quintana like package for him to be flipped and I highly doubt teams will give that up.
I’m thinking the market for first baseman is non-existent right now? If thats the case then just hang on to Abreau until that market picks up
Rebuilds demand patience and time. Paying big money to keep Abreu and Avisial around until these young prospects develop properly doesn’t make a lot of sense. Fans who have no stomach for the process will get over it when the White Sox are kicking tail 3 years from now.
Other teams won’t stand still and wait for the Sox to catch up. What does it say about the quality of MLB if two-thirds of the teams are rebuilding or not seriously able to contend for post-season play? There may well be a surprise team or two, but in fact the current emphasis on rebuilding means MLB has developed a two-tier product that will be even more difficult to sell if teams like the Sox strip themselves of proven major league players for still more unproven, highly hyped prospects. Keep Abreu. Keep Garcia. Keep Sanchez. When I go to the park in 2018, their presence on the field increases the chance I may see the Sox win.
bit of a stretch calling Garcia & Sanchez proven major league players
Sell high on Garcia but problem is others want to see more than just his best year in 17. Sanchez if you have to rely on him starting 5 games a week you are in trouble. His best is as a switch hitting reserve who can play a few spots and steal a base now and then. Good club house presence don’t hurt him staying. They need bullpen arms and getting a few vets that turned the corner and brought back players in trades from brewers and yanks didn’t hurt. Still not holding my breath
What does it say about the quality of MLB if two-thirds of the teams are rebuilding or not seriously able to contend for post-season play?
It says there’s a substantial disparity in financial capacities among clubs. Until you limit big spenders in the top tier, you can’t expect every club to spend their resources on MLB-level talent each season. While the size of an owners wallet doesn’t necessarily affect weather or not they can win a World Series in a given year, it certainly correlates with the length of a team’s rebuild. This is all OK, but you shouldn’t fault teams for wanting to tear down in exchange for a better chance in the future.
Not sure what you’re talking about. Teams rebuild all the time, primarily because it makes the most sense when your club is underachieving. In any event, the last three WS champions were built with young players acquired via tanking.
agreed ChiSoxCity. Abreu should be traded and if offers are good, so should Avisail. If not, wait until he gets hot next year (if he does) and move him. I don’t like the fact that the Sox continue running out bums like Covey. He was worth a shot, didn’t work out….MOVE ON!
Some kind of Kemp and prospects for Shields salary dump deal would make sense
True, but the offers in prospect quality so far haven’t been worth dealing either or Hahn would have. Avi should be gone if he remotely resembles last year early on. Understandable that clubs want to see if it was just a magical season before parting with good prospects. Abreu the fan base can still keep an eye on St. Louis since his addition with Ozuna makes sense.
How about a shields Trumbo swap. Nothing exciting but could help both teams.
How does it “help” either team?
That would work since BAL needs bodies in the rotation, and Trumbo really doesn’t have a position. CWS can have Trumbo DH full time, and BAL can run Shields out there every fifth day simply because they have no one else to do so at the moment.
Pretty sure the White Sox don’t want a full time DH right now (unless it’s somebody who absolutely rakes – which isn’t Trumbo).
Nah, last year of Shields sunk cost eating some innings has value while payroll is low in 2018. They can pay him the 2.5mil to go away at year end.
More like Tanking Inventory, am I right?
I’ll be here all week, folks.
Someone made that same joke in the Tigers thread. I commend your originality.
Didn’t read that thread. And to be honest, the only reason I posted in this one is because I read the headline as “Tanking” the first time I saw it.
“Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021”
That’s a very odd payout, going from ~$4M down to ~league minimum salary and then back to $3.75M again. Don’t think I’ve seen anything like it.
A quick glance at Jones bb-ref page linked in the story confirms my suspicion. Kyle, you got his 2019 salary wrong. No biggie, just a typo.
Hi majorflaw, no typo. There was a clause in his contract that reduced the payouts in the event of any issues with his elbow. You can read about those details here.
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/nate-jones-out-for-rema…
Thanks, Kyle.
(That’s the first link which doesn’t work on the iPad since the last update. All I get is “link to mlbtraderumors.com”.).
$545K sounds like it might even be under league minimum in 2019, not sure they can do that even by agreement.
545K is the exact league minimum for 2018.
Abreu has at most $15m in excess value, and that’s probably generous. More like $10m in truth. The reason why he hasn’t been traded is he’s not worth that much, while apparently he is worth a lot to the White Sox for whatever reason. They’ll enjoy paying for his decline, I’m sure.
Dateline 9/23 2017…CHICAGO — Jose Abreu became the third player in Major League history to start his career with four straight seasons of at least 25 home runs and 100 RBIs by virtue of his run-scoring groundout off Scott Alexander in the seventh inning of Saturday night’s 8-2 loss to the Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field…..
The 2 others, btw?
Joe DiMaggio
Albert Pujols
Yeah…THIS bat…
Decline…pfft
Gotta resign Jose, wanna see if Avi improves on 2017 stats don’t want to see Avi turn into a perennial all-star elsewere. After keeping a turd like Dianne Viciedo around for 5 yrs. If you dont have enuff in the farm by now you got the wrong prospects. Shouldnt need an extensive rebuild with all the big league talent you had to trade. Contending in 2019 should be the goal. Twins dont scare anybody. Only have to get past Indians for Central title. Big Dame James has got to go if i see him start a game in 2018 goonna have a chestgrabber
He is under contract for 2 more years. I don’t see any indications of much decline happening in that time frame. Maybe they buy into more of that decline….hope not.
They also are protected for those 2 years with Abreu being arbitration eligible so they can just non tender him if he goes M.I.A. Very minimal risk for the Sox or any team looking to acquire him for those 2 years.
I think surplus value is a good indicator of a “starting point” in negotiations. Talks can go either direction a good ways from there based on several factors. We’ve seen it happen quite a few times in the past. It’s no different than free agency. Everyone knew that Chris Davis contract was a bad idea, yet Baltimore bid against themselves and signed him anyway.
With two years of control the WhiteSox should trade Abreau now, gain more prospect capital for that juggernaut. King Hahn has done a great job so far.
They should also trade for a package of Kemp/Grandal/prospects. They have the payroll to burn and they could add even more top prospects or even flip Grandal to a contending team for more prospects.
Thoughts?
Grandal would have made more sense before signing Castillo. If flipping was the intention then it would be best to have a 3 team deal in place rather than losing leverage once he is on the team and an obvious surplus.
Seriously though, Sox need to pick a road. If Sox want to keep Abreu/Garcia then they need to make offers to Cain(3 yr/$49m) and Frazier(2 yr/$24m with option). Neither player would be blocking a prospect that projects to be a major league regular in that time frame. Staying under $50m eliminates the compensation cost if Cain was to accept.
Pick up a couple relievers like Tony Watson and Sergio Romo. The bullpen would be respectable enough. Minaya looked good to finish out the year. If Jones returns healthy, Jones/Watson/Romo make a good bridge to Minaya with some bullpen fodder to soak up some innings (Farquhar, Infante).
If the pitchers progress well and surprise us, they have built in reinforcements coming midseason with Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech arriving. If the hype on Alec Hansen is true, he could be forcing the issue as well by late season.
I see no point in letting assets diminish value while rebuilding. Moreso, I’m tired of the baby-sitting theory that some fans are stuck to with Abreu. Either blow it up and see the rebuild through OR make short term moves to progress the timeline by using only money and not blocking any potential stars.
First, I doubt Cain signs for that low. Second, what do they need either of those guys for during the rebuild phase? Rebuilds are for prospects to learn the major leagues and start to produce. You say these guys won’t block prospects; I say that’s a lot of money to throw at someone who won’t help you make the playoffs and will be pushed aside. Plus, wins cost them draft slots. I’d rather they save their money and go in on the huge free agent crop at the end of next year, when they can sign guys who could actually help them get to the WS.
First of all, I’m 100% on board with trading Abreu and Garcia. Continue the sell off and sign a couple stopgaps…..but again, since they are keeping valuable assets I say why not add to that if it won’t cost draft picks, international money, or block any potential impact prospect.
“Second, what do they need either of those guys for during the rebuild phase?”
Personally, I think Cain at leadoff adds a ton to the White Sox offense. I think the Sox can be competitive with additions of Cain, Frazier, Castillo, a rebuilt bullpen, and some sizable steps on the pitching rotation…..which developing pitchers happens to be our strong suit if I had to name one. Also, any additions could become potential deadline pieces swapped for controllable talent. What happens if the Tribe has a couple injuries to their rotation…..?
“Plus, wins cost them draft slots.”
I’d say the draft is a total crapshoot. Having the 5th-10th pick vs. having the 15th pick isn’t a guarantee of anything. Having the 15th pick AND moving recent signees for controllable talent with some level of pro experience that Hahn handpicks is comparable I would say.
All in all, Frazier is a reach. I’ll admit that, but seemed a better option than hoping for BOTH Cain and Moose to take <$50m deals. I'm 100% on board with signing Cain if he can be had under $50m. Who exactly is he blocking?
Engel – AAA outfielder, defensive wiz, can't hit ANYTHING
Tilson – lets see him healthy first, then we can talk
Leury Garcia – valuable utility guy, not much as a starter WHEN healthy
Cordell – hopeful on him, bad back isn't encouraging. been there, done that
Polo – at least a year away, ceiling seems limited
Basabe, Rutherford, Call – Cain will be gone when/if they reach the majors
most importantly, I’m really hoping you are not thinking “save their money and go in on the huge free agent crop” involves Machado or Harper or even Arenado the year after. If so, I’ll go ahead and chalk this up to “he’ll learn one day”
“I think the Sox can be competitive with additions of Cain, Frazier, Castillo, a rebuilt bullpen, and some sizable steps on the pitching rotation.” That’s a long list of improvements to make in one offseason. If Jimenez comes up and does an Aaron Judge impersonation and Giolito and Lopez are as good as they can be, maybe, but I think you’re asking too much from a team where 80% of their best talent were rookies or prospects this past year.
Aside from Tilson and maybe Rutherford if he rebounds, you’re right: the Sox don’t have an abundance of talent in the OF after Jimenez and Robert, which is why I’d keep Avi if I were them, at least until he can prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
As for Abreu, guys that consistent with that level of leadership don’t come around every day. I think they’re better served extending him for 4 years to take them through their expected competitive window.
Finally, as for the free agent splashes, if I had to pick one of those names, it’d be Arenado. Yes, his OBP and OPS were higher at Coors (who’s aren’t?), but he was still a solid player on the road and his defense is excellent. So long as he didn’t want to be paid as though he’d produce Coors Field numbers, I’d say he’s worth it. But I wasn’t thinking of a one-player, eggs-in-one-basket approach so much as getting several difference-makers to fill in holes for either prospects who didn’t pan out or other needs created by injuries, departures, or poor play.
There are a few good looking OF prospects in the 30ish-50ish range of MLB.com’s draft rankings for 2018, including toolsy players like Tristan Pompey and Joe Gray Jr. Either one of them would be a great 2nd round pickup.
As for the 1st round, I’m not really sold on any of the highly ranked OF prospects where the Sox are picking. I like Conine the most out of the top ranked OF prospects, but I think he’d be a little too much of a reach where they are picking. And I don’t like him as much as I like players like Gorman, De Sedas, and Turang. A lot can change between now and the draft, but I’m excited for this one.
Out of the 3, Harper/Machado/Arenado i would go Nolan. Problem is the 1st 2 are free agents end of 2018 season. Nolan is end of 2019. Getting Arenado & Blackmon on the SouthSide to start 2019 would be great. Jerry definitely wants another title will he break the bank to land one or more of those studs, doubtful. Hope he does. Abreu, Dozier, Machado & Arenado INF Avisail, Blackmon, Eloy & Robert OF getr dun Jerry & Genghis. CWS WORLD SERIES CHAMPS 2020. Kopech, Giolito, Hansen, Lopez & Rodon rotation.
Hahn still picked a lane to rebuild despite Abreu/Avi being here. It’s just most of the work or tanking is done to acquire what they have. If the Cards or Rockies really want Abreu, he’s as good as gone with the young prospects of interest they possess. Makes sense to not give them away. If offers are underwhelming rest of offseason, the South Siders may stockpile a lot of bottom feeder wins in 2018 just bc Tigers/Royals could or should be worse. Drafting top 5 again unlikely to occur and that can be good if Lopez/Giolito/Fulmer/Moncada/Anderson progress and get used to winning a bit ahead of Eloy and Kopech’s arrival. Good position to be in either getting more impressive prospect hauls or starting a culture of winning ahead of time. They are negotiating from a position of strength.
Sox are a force, Giolito a tank
Twins possibly without Sano…..White Sox have NO chance at postseason huh? If Hahn turns the ship around and goes for it…..(.just money, no compensation included)….I think the AL Central is fully within grasp. Darvish was unable to receive compensation because of his midseason trade, Cain’s free agency is slowing to a crawl so maybe he is obtainable under $50m, several relievers could be had without compensation. I think it is foolish to write off a season before it even begins when 2 of the teams are rebuilding and a third “might have” just lost its best player.