It’s no secret that the market for MLB players has been shockingly cold to date. Ironically, the fact that there are so few stories has become one of the biggest stories of the offseason. But what has perhaps gone somewhat overlooked is the slow crawl of the minor league free agent market. In a piece for Baseball America, Matt Eddy details the frigid minor league market to date. He notes that nearly five times as many minor league free agents had signed contracts by this point last offseason, and quotes an agent describing the “trickle-down” effect of the slow major league free agent market. “Teams are (emphasizing) ‘delay, delay, delay,’ hoping for players to get desperate and start signing lower deals.” says one agent via Eddy. This tactic to drive down the asking prices of MLB free agents could end up reducing the eventual contracts of MiLB free agents as well. While the worst-case scenario for major leaguers is a smaller guarantee, the fear for minor league free agents is that they might not end up with a team at all if they wait too long to sign.
More from around baseball…
- Emily Waldon of The Athletic points out that Detroit has just one available spot on the 40-man roster, along with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft. It will certainly be a valuable pick, and with the rebuilding Tigers not expected to contend this year, they should easily be able to keep their selection on their big league roster throughout the 2018 season. Waldon also provides some notes on former Tigers who are now with new organizations, as well as a few interesting minor leaguers who are making impressions in winter ball. It’s great material for Detroit fans who are looking for some storylines to follow during a rebuilding season.
- With the non-tender deadline yesterday, many new names were added to the free agent pool. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com lists six players he thinks are likely to draw significant interest from major league clubs. Feinsand provides some helpful details on those players, including the likes of Matt Adams and Drew Smyly. It’s helpful for anyone looking speculate on how the non-tender free agents could potentially impact the free agent market.
- With the posting of Shohei Ohtani recently becoming official, ESPN’s Keith Law reveals some secondhand info he’s compiled from scouts who have seen the Japanese phenom play. Although Ohtani is able to reach the 100 MPH threshold, most scouts say the velocity of his fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement. Many scouts also express skepticism about his ability to hit in the major leagues, citing concerns over his capabilities to both shorten his swing enough to cover the inner third of the plate and develop a “real” two-strike approach. There also seems to be some concerns about his durability and how he’ll deal with the fatigue of both pitching and hitting throughout a full season.
So, who are the notable players available in Rule 5? As a Tigers fan, could there be someone that could fit and help out, if even marginally, during the season? Who’s out there?
This link might be helpful
m.mlb.com/news/article/262486372/top-available-pro…
What a helpful link
Travis Demeritte, Kohl Stewart & Nick Burdi are at the top of my list
Nick Burdi definitely the most intriguing of the bunch. Considering he can be easily stashed on DL with some made up arm fatigue after coming off TJ. I don’t see anyway that he isn’t selected.
Really hoping that the White Sox bring him home. It would be awesome to see the Burdi brothers together in the backend of their bullpen, assuming both can make successful comebacks from TJ (which is a big assumption).
Other than that, I wouldn’t hate watching Demeritte play a whole bunch of 3B next year for the Sox. Despite Davidson hitting 26 homers last year, I’m not all that interested in watching him attempt to play 3B for another year.
You can stash him on the DL in 2018, but he has to stay on the roster all season in 2019. He has to have a full active season on a ML roster. That will be tough to do with very limited amount of minor league rehab innings.
Tommy John surgery is not a big deal so its not a big assumption they both come back from it. I think like 95% or close to it come back fine. It just takes 1-2 years to come back fully
Max Pentecoast is another name to keep an eye on. Wouldn’t be too hard to stash him as a 3rd string emergency catcher/pinch hitter/ back up first baseman type. Something similar to how San Diego handled Torrens last season.
If I’m not mistaken, Pentecost was shut down in the AFL this year because of shoulder soreness (I believe the same shoulder he had surgery on a while back). I think that might scare a lot of teams off, unless they are high enough on his bat to make him a 1B/DH instead of a C long-term.
Excuse me but “stashing” him means he takes up a roster spot. Not many teams have a soot for a third string catcher pinch hitter
Good to see the discussion of Ohtani is returning to earth.
Right. Up until now the attitude has been that Ohtani is gonna set the world on fire from day one onward. Bottom line is he has never set foot on a major league field. It may take a while for him to fully adjust and develop, and nobody knows how long that will be.
I agree. Personally think his pitching will be ahead of his hitting but who knows.
I think it odd that no negative comments from scouting occurred prior to his posting, and as Law states they’re second hand, they don’t say which organization these scouts are from. Could they be scouts whose teams never had a chance or from teams trying to scare off the competition
Law said at the beginning of the off-season that he wouldn’t have Ohtani as a top 50 free agent this off-season, and Eric Longenhagen recently said he probably wouldn’t consider him a top 100 prospect if he were only a position player. The concerns about his hitting ability, despite his fantastic stats in Japan, aren’t entirely new.
I will admit that this is the first I’ve heard about a lack of movement on the fastball, though.
Most have stated from early on that his arm is the draw. One of the first MLBTR articles saying he would be coming stateside ( mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/latest-on-shohei-otani-… ) linked an SI article which said “Major league scouts, a species trained to go about their work with skepticism and discernment, struggle to find glaring weaknesses in Ohtani’s game. Now a partner in 2080baseball.com, Dave DeFreitas began scouting Ohtani when the kid was in high school. He believes, like most, that Ohtani’s “high octane” pitching is ahead of his hitting, likening him to Mets ace Noah Syndergaard. But, DeFreitas adds, “He could hit home runs in the majors tomorrow.” ( si.com/mlb/2017/04/06/shohei-ohtani )
Opinions are all over the place though. Ichiro has hinted that Ohtani should concentrate on his hitting instead of pitching. A Japan Times writer, who covers Ohtani and calls him the “baby-faced assassin”, loves his approach at the plate ( nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/japanese-r… ). That article really gives a nice insight from someone who watched him every day
Most have stated from early on that his arm is the draw. One of the first MLBTR articles saying he would be coming stateside ( link to mlbtraderumors.com ) linked an SI article which said “Major league scouts, a species trained to go about their work with skepticism and discernment, struggle to find glaring weaknesses in Ohtani’s game…… Dave DeFreitas began scouting Ohtani when the kid was in high school. He believes, like most, that Ohtani’s “high octane” pitching is ahead of his hitting, likening him to Mets ace Noah Syndergaard. But, DeFreitas adds, “He could hit home runs in the majors tomorrow.” ( link to si.com )
Opinions are all over the place though. Ichiro has hinted that Ohtani should concentrate on his hitting instead of pitching. A Japan Times writer, who covers Ohtani loves his approach at the plate ( link to nydailynews.com ). That article really gives a nice insight from someone who watched him every day
Who ever signs Ohtani, better learn quickly from the Yu Darvish signing by the Rangers 7 years ago. Darvish too, was a phenom from Japan, but ended up like all other Japanese imports in recent years – mediocre. I am surprised that the Rangers are willing to put up all of their “international money” to the tune of $3.5 million to sign Ohtani – why are they making the same mistake?
Sure, if you want to ignore the fact that Darvish was an excellent pitcher for them when healthy.
Ignoring the fact that you need to reformulate your standard of mediocrity, it also seems a bit presumptuous to assume that Ohtani will perform at the same level as other Japanese pitchers, since Ohtani is nearly universally regarded as having the best pure stuff of any of them
Because Ohtani is 23 and using all their pool money for a talent like his is a no brainer
Agreed. I’m rooting for the guy because it could be interesting and game changing, but the current perspective we have on it is that he’s just going to succeed. It’s nice to hear about the challenges he may face and how difficult it will really be to do what he’s trying to.
What a shock, it turns out Ohtani is an actual human being, not a Marvel Comics superhero.
We know straight heat doesn’t cut it, and what MLB hitters can do with a fastball without movement. This kid is going to have his work cut out for him just learning how to pitch to big league hitters, without also having to learn to hit big league pitching at the same time.
L. L. L
I was saying the same thing look at how all of the great Japanese power hitters faired in the MLB it’s just not the same caliber if he wants to pitch and hit sign in the NL and every 5 days hit and be a pinch hitter.
Slow market shows owners regaining upper hand, with maximum leverage over the weakest. These guys are businessmen, and wherever there’s a buck, they are going to look to pick it up. This postseason is the perfect time to do that. There are no must haves perfect players in FA market.
There never are. To me this is owners/GMs realizing that most FA contracts are overpays and avoiding the pitfalls of yesteryear. The arbitration/player control process needs a rehab. Players need to enter the FA market at a younger age to rejuvenate the FA system
I’m certain that all the GMs have known for decades that free agent contracts are risky and rarely sound strictly as value propositions. The problem with looking at them strictly as value propositions is winning is not cost effective, and to continue winning, teams with the resources to do so can afford a certain amount of this burn. Nothing has changed on that front. Every offseason has its unique features that tend to hold up the rest of the pieces from moving. I think we all know what they are this year.
@Angelsinthetroutfield
One of the dumber comments I have read is your comment that the FA big contract market needs to be rejuvinated and to allow LESS team control before free agency
I also think this is a 1-off because this market is so bad, and it’s so good next year and the year after next. Teams are saving their money for the surer bets/higher ceiling guys available after this season.
That sounds an awful lot like collusion.
In no way at all is that collusion! All the teams would have to get together
and decide to do that as a whole
How do you know they haven’t?
You think all the teams are colluding to bid against each other next year? Lol.
It wouldn’t be the first time. In the 80’s MLB colluded to reduce salaries:
“The free agent market following the 1986 season was not much better for the players. Only four free agents switched teams. Andre Dawson took a pay cut and a one-year contract to sign with the Chicago Cubs. Three fourths of the free agents signed one-year contracts. Star players that ended up back with their old teams included Jack Morris (Detroit Tigers), Tim Raines (Montreal Expos), Ron Guidry (New York Yankees), Rich Gedman (Red Sox), Bob Boone (California Angels), and Doyle Alexander (Atlanta Braves).
For the first time since the start of free agency, the average major league salary declined. The average free-agent salary dropped by 16 percent, while MLB reported revenues increasing by 15 percent. This prompted the MLBPA to file a second grievance (Collusion II) on February 18, 1987. Even as this was happening, Ueberroth ordered the owners to tell him personally if they planned to offer contracts longer than three years.[5]
In September 1987, the Collusion I case came before arbitrator Thomas Roberts, who ruled that the owners had violated the CBA by conspiring to restrict player movement.”
Also see MLB collusion on Wikipedia:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_collus…
Because he’s Batman.
Is it true this guy is saying he wants to be the only Japanese player on the team? If so I really don’t get why that would matter lol
It could be that he wants to create his own legacy and help a team that doesn’t have a Japanese star!
No, not even the second-hand reports of what he’s said suggest that he wants to be the only Japanese player on the team.
@BlueSkyLA
Sorry the reports say the opposite. Bye Bye Dodgers hopes
Actually, no.
Actually, yes.
That klaw is such a buzz kill!
The Law article is literally titled “MLB is gaining an ace, but can he hit in the majors?” Law says he’s going to be an ace, as is literally every scout. The conjecture is how much of an “ace” (a stupid term with no clear definition) Otani will be. Will he be Sonny Gray-level ace, or Clayton Kershaw-level ace? That’s all that article is saying regarding his pitching. It appears the black cloud brigade pulled up over this and spun it the wrong way.
Ohtani won’t be getting very many at-bats if he ends up being relegated to the bullpen.
Hyun-soo Kim, and Kang were super heroes in Japan hitting 40+ HRs, and we seen how far that translated once they came over to MLB. I’m not saying he’s not the real deal because nobody really knows for sure! One thing I can say (and I’m sure everyone else agrees) is that he’s more “known” for his pitching rather his ability to hit. Granted he was on the DL last year for a month, but the guy did only hit between 24-28 Hrs if my memory serves me correct. Compare that to MLB that probably equals to about 12-15 HRs. I’ll even be generous enough to say 20 HRs. The guy will be a full time pitcher come mid June
They are Korean, which is a much, much easier league to hit in than Japan
Oh okay I didn’t realize that, sorry! Guess we’ll have to wait and see how it pans out for him. Still think at some point in his career here he will eventually turn into a one-sided player. It would be intriguing to see him do both though I have to admit
Kang and Kim never played in Japan, they played in Korea. Kim also never hit 40 homers in a KBO season before. 28 was his max. Kang hit 40, but he also hit very well in MLB.
I believe after Rondon’s non-tender the Tigers have two 40 man spots available headed into the Rule 5 draft.
You have to remember they may need spots to sign free agents too. You would have to cut someone if they sign someone. Perhaps they open up a spot with a Kinsler trade, but they may need that spot for the player they get back in the trade.
I don’t think the average fan understands how onerous the new luxury tax system is under the new CBA.
One of two things will happen as a result. The first is already happening, which is the luxury tax acting as a de facto salary cap for baseball. Even the big money teams are working to get under the threshold.
The second, likely but not certain to happen, is about 6-10 teams will decide it’s better business to pay the tax and field a super team. The other 20-24 teams will then serve as a feeder system and schedule fodder for the super teams.
Jerry Dipoto is the worst.
If the Tigers need space on the 40 man….look no further than dropping Chad Bell….showed nothing and another left handed that can’t pitch is pointless.
MLB released their grades for Otani:
Fastball: 80 | Slider: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Splitter: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 70
Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 65 | Arm: 80 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
First thoughts: OH MY GOD
Long swing. Fastball with limited movement and no real secondary out pitch to speak of. the talent is there. But so is the hype. Overhype in fact. As a Giants fan I wouldn’t mind LA spending a bunch of money on him. Yu and Tanaka had/have? incredible movement and ability to locate. This kid does not.
Scouts are wrong just as much as writers trying to predict how a player is going to perform. It is just not possible, just look at the draft choices over the last 10 years and you will see. There are a lot of great players who started poorly in their careers.
Delay, delay, delay sure sounds like collusion, collusion, collusion.
Thank god for any team that gets Ohtani that they don’t have to sign him to 200+ mil. Because I have said this from the beginning he has bust written on his forehead.
My prediction is he will he a decent #3 starter with an era around 3.75 and things will go off track quickly once he starts hitting at the Mendoza line, with a lot of k’s. The team will then be forced to take him out of the line up and who knows how that will affect his game overall.
Just take a look at his stats in Japan the last 3 years vs Tanaka’s last 3 years before coming to the USA. Tanaka was dominated him statistically in japan. Tanaka is a good pitcher in the us. Once teams figured him out though he was no longer kershaw esk. He always gave up too many bombs and then injured his arm on top of it. After one year in the majors he became a solid ace but not a world beater by any stretch and then continued to decline. Also Tanaka was known for having good fastball command, if this guy is known for not having great command forget it. Doesn’t it seem worysome that maybe these Japanese hitters can’t catch up to a 100mph pitcher no matter where it’s located?! Seriously compare the Japan stats. Tanaka was a daddy to him during his Japanese career. So if Ohtani is markedly worse than Tanaka in Japan ( a league that probably hasn’t even seen a 100mph pitcher) than what is he over here?! Like I said #3 and an issue waiting to happen when he can’t hit
Tanaka last 3 season in Japan
19-5 1.27 era
10-4. 1.87 era
24-0. 1.27 era
Ohtani
11-5. 2.61
15-5. 2.24
10-4. 1.86
3-2. 3.20
Tanaka B.B./9
1.1
1.0
1.4
Hr/9
0.3
0.2
0.3
Ohtani B.B./9
3.3
2.6
3.9
6.8
Hr/9
.4
.4
.3
If Tanaka came to the mlb and had a hr problem with good location, what’s Otani gunna look like with no control?
Ohtani only beats Tanaka in strike outs and as I said before. We are talking about a guy throwing 100 mph in Japan. The fastest pitcher ever to throw in Japan. Over here if you can’t locate that, you still get hit
Oh and as far as hitting is concerned Hideki Matsui hit 50 home runs in 500 at bats his last season in Japan.. his next season he had 627 at bats in the mlb and hit 16 home runs.. how exactly is Ohtani supposed to be a homerun hitter? Even look at ichiro he put up 25 hr in Japan, ever see him come
Close to that in the mlb?
Also Yu Darvish had 1.73, 1.78, 1.44 era in his last 3 years in Japan.. he had a better walk to strike out rate than Ohtani as well. He now owns a 3.42 career mlb era, including a 3.90 era in his first years. Just don’t see how anyone can expect that he is any better than Darvish or Tanaka who were both better in Japan and didn’t possess the fastest pitch their hitters had ever seen (which also is not by a long shot the fastest mlb hitters see day to day)