2:57pm: Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer casts significant doubt on the idea that the Phils will chase Arrieta. While the team tried for Tyler Chatwood and may yet attempt to land someone like Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn, and will also look intro trades, Gelb writes flatly that the organization “will not spend” on top-of-the-market arms Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
GM Matt Klentak provided some thoughts that certainly support that viewpoint. He also indicated that part of the team’s strategy is to bolster the bullpen in order to limit the wear on the starting staff, which helps explain the team’s deal with Pat Neshek and pursuit of Addison Reed.
8:28am: The Phillies are considering a pursuit of free agent righty Jake Arrieta, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports (Twitter link). Arrieta is a known quantity to several Phils executives that used to work in the Orioles’ front office, as Arrieta was originally drafted and developed by the Baltimore organization.
While the Phils are still rebuilding, it has been widely assumed that the team will begin to spend to its usual levels as early as next winter, when several superstar free agents will hit the market. Signing Arrieta now would serve as a clear signal that the Phillies are ready to compete, plus having Arrieta in the fold would also serve as a good selling point to next year’s free agent crop. Philadelphia is also sorely in need of rotation help now, so the team could be deciding on making a big splash now when an ace they like is on the market, rather than test the trade or free agent waters in a year’s time. On the other hand, Arrieta would cost the Phils their second-highest draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool funds, as Arrieta rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer.
The Brewers, Rockies, Twins, Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, and Nationals have all expressed some degree of interest in Arrieta’s services, and Theo Epstein said yesterday that he would check in with Scott Boras, Arrieta’s agent, about the possibility of a return to the Cubs.
Despite this interest, it isn’t clear what Arrieta will earn on the open market, given his age (32 in March) and his somewhat lesser numbers in 2017, fueled in part by an increased home run rate. One executive told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that he has “no clue what [Arrieta] will get.” MLBTR ranked Arrieta fourth on our list of the winter’s Top 50 Free Agents and projected him for a four-year, $100MM deal.
Needless to say, Boras is aiming higher for his client. ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Boras is marketing Arrieta by directly contacting MLB owners (rather than their front offices) with a 75-page booklet detailing the right-hander’s strengths. One team executive believes that Boras is seeking a deal in the $200MM range for Arrieta, though Boras said he hadn’t talked salary specifics with any teams.
As he outlined to Crasnick, Boras believes Arrieta offers a package of postseason success, durability, and relative lack of workload on his arm in terms of career innings. The main comparison seems to be Justin Verlander, whose seven-year, $180MM extension with the Tigers is at least in the ballpark of that alleged $200MM figure.
“I don’t put values on anything. I just look at performance,” Boras said. “I look at the marketplace and say, ’How does he stack up against the top pitchers in the game, and why?’….I give them all the book, and the onion starts to peel. And all of a sudden there’s only a small group left who do what Verlander, Arrieta and [Max] Scherzer do.”
Obviously there’s no small amount of salesmanship in Boras’ comments, and his method of directly approaching owners isn’t a new one; he has used the tactic to great effect in the past, particularly with the Nationals and Tigers. Two anonymous general managers, however, expressed doubt to Crasnick that Boras’ strategy is still as effective as it once was. While an $180MM-$200MM deal for Arrieta seems very optimistic, Boras does have a long track record of finding larger-than-expected contracts for his clients.
Phillies2017
God please no. Declining statistics, control issues, on the wrong side of 30 and six figures
I’d be more comfortable with Cobb if they want to add a “big name sp”
Rob 23
Couldn’t agree more. You think we would have learned a lesson giving 32 year old pitchers massive contracts.
Regi Green
Who are the other pitchers they gave long term deals to?
Cliff Lee was an attempt to get us further into the playoffs. There’s really nothing bad to say about the deal Hamels got,he held up his end. Other then them 2, Phillies haven’t gone longer then 3 years with anyone,homegrown,free agent or trade acquisition.
mlb1225
He’s slowly, but surely declining. I think the everybody has caught up to his pitches/pitch style since his 2015 Cy Young year.
mlb1225
I think that’s part of his success. He was this out of nowhere guy, and was dominating batters with something new. Now, everyone knows what he’s going to throw, and how he’s going to throw.
philliesteelcity23
Agreed it would literally make no sense to sign him
the boss
Another reason he had a bad season is that he was probably tired after winning the World Series. He only gets like a month off after winning the World Series
jorleeduf
Cobb has a history of injuries. Arrieta is declining but still a top 25 starter. I say Arrieta would be better.
Caseys Partner
Answer is: Both Cobb and Arrieta are a bad idea.
marckahn
Stay the course. No big contracts for old pitchers. Plus who wants to deal with boras.
acarneglia
I’ll gladly take him in the Bronx
driftcat28 2
Why? He’s going to decline very rapidly. The Yankees can use their resources in better places. I’d stay away from Arrieta
philliesteelcity23
Driftcat we need Fulmer
driftcat28 2
He would help but buyer beware, he cost will be pricey. I really would like to hang on to the kids and give Adams and Sheffield a chance but one of them would almost certainly be gone along with Frazier for him
brewcrew08
Not to mention what money are the Yankees using now that they have Stanton? It’s not realistic to think they will throw 20-25M per year at arrieta after taking on Stanton’s 30M per year. Especially factoring in they will have to pay Judge, Didi, Sevi and Sanchez very soon
Yankeepatriot
The Yankees are still 12 million under the luxury tax threshold
Yankeepride88
Yankees now have over 20 mil to play with. Plus, the Yankees only intend on going below the luxury this year to reset it. Also, Stanton costs the Yankees just 22 mil in luxury because the contract is AAV and the kicker the Marlins send in affects the luxury regardless of whether he opts out
bronxbombers
Yankees added 22 million Aav in Stanton deal with the 30 mil included by Miami then removed 13 mill with headley and 8.5 with Castro adding just 1-2 mil in payroll
Kslaw
His home run rate is going up and you want him in a ball park where routine fly balls are homers?
JKB 2
Many teams would take him depending on the deal. But would you take him in the Bronx at seven years and 180 million? If so you would have him signed in 5 minutes and regret it later
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Just saw on mlbn Scott boras is trying to get 200m for arrieta. That is the funniest thing I seen in a long time. Unless it’s paid out over 15 years 5 years playing and 10 years after retiring. Arrieta isn’t getting 130m let alone 200m
Phillies2017
He shouldn’t but all it takes is one team
brucebochyisthemarlboroman
Think we both may have just watched the same thing, 200 million is ridiculous, especially with him being on the downhill side of 30.
brewcrew08
I agree. I can’t see a team going more than 4yr/110M to sign him. Especially given his decline in numbers and age. SP are not elite once they hit age 33-34 and those are the years you’re paying for in a Arrieta deal
JKB 2
Haha Wrek. Good one. Sure Lets take it over 15 years we can tell Boras. I love that.
John Nobles
Trans should be looking at max 5 Years at 115 Million
Boras being his agent some team might give him another year as some type of option
brucebochyisthemarlboroman
I’d only take him on an at the most, 2 year deal, But since Boras wants to shop him for 200 million, that aint happening.
JKB 2
A two year deal is not going to be realistic. He will get at least 3-4. Some dumb team may go 5 or more but many teams would do 3 years for sure and probably 4. Of course it all depends on the dollar amount to say if that is good or not
Pax vobiscum
Absolutely no thank you. Spending money on a risky high dollar contract just to show a willingness to spend is the wrong way to go. I watched Klentak on MLB network talk of the Phillies’ second half success as if the page was finally turned and the team was ready to compete. I know he’s the GM and has access to much more information and data than me but the second half success didn’t pass the smell test. I’d still be combing the FA market for projects and bargains.
Caseys Partner
Should be going full on for the 1st pick in the 2019 draft and selling Cesar Hernandez for high ceiling A-ball talent at least two full seasons away from being protected on the 40 man roster.
Hernandez to the Angels for Jordon Adell (who the Phillies should have drafted).
Coast1
If they want to go for a high draft pick they need to send Hoskins, Nola, Crawford, Herrera, Neris, and Altherr to AAA. If they don’t, they likely won’t get near the worst record.
Caseys Partner
They need to put Nola on the 60 day DL after his April starts. They need a couple of guys in the bullpen who are horrible and can be relied upon to come in and throw games. Sign Sean O’Sullivan to __start__ and pay him to take a beating and get charged with 20 losses.
You can be in the middle of the pack in scoring runs – which is quite a stretch for the Phillies in 2018 – and still have the worst record with horrible pitching.
Coast1
That’s going to be tough. The 2016 Phillies were last in runs scored and 12th in runs allowed and didn’t finish with the worst record. The 2015 Phillies were 13th in runs scored and 14th in runs allowed and did. If the Phillies are middle of the pack in runs scored they won’t finish last. And there’s a danger that the players they have will play as well as they did last year down the stretch and they will be top 5 in runs.
To achieve your goal you need to jettison Hoskins, Altherr, Herrera, Hernandez, and Crawford at a minimum. And no replacing Hernandez with Scot Kingery. You need a Ty Kelly type.
vlad4hof
I don’t understand. You’ve always complained that the Phillies are cheap and need to spend (though you hate every signing they make even after one ends up good) which I assume is so they win more sooner, yet now say they should tank.
Caseys Partner
Right the Phillies have always been cheap. Next year they sign both Harper and Machado. How many times do I have to write that before it sinks in for you?
Kslaw
I would like to think the Phillies learned their lesson about bad contracts already.
Caseys Partner
” Arrieta is a known quantity to several Phils executives that used to work in the Orioles’ front office”
Like Andy MacPhail and his Baltimore intern Matt Klentak?
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Andy MacPhail is exactly that. A failure. Him and Hendry were the worst in cubs history. Hendry is out of.basball. macphail is with Baltimore.
Caseys Partner
” macphail is with Baltimore”
???
Phillies fans wish MacPhail was in Baltimore.
JKB 2
Yes those two. And the funny thing is he was not too good in Baltimore
Coast1
There’s no chance of this happening. Since he took over the team Andy MacPhail has preached against signing 32 year old starting pitchers to long term contracts and called that “chasing unicorns” in his most recent interview. Matt Klentak said yesterday that they aren’t looking at free agents this off-season.
People say that GMs lie and misdirect but MacPhail and Klentak have done everything they’ve said they’d do and haven’t lied. And really what would be the point? Despite the Phillies insisting they won’t go after major free agents the reporters keep reporting they will. So saying they won’t is doing the same thing as Dave Dombrowski saying the Red Sox will.
Note to Mark: They might pursue free agents next year but if they do their payroll will hit $100 million, nowhere near the previous level.
Caseys Partner
Harper and Machado will take the Phillies payroll past $100 million easily.
Coast1
You must be a front office apologist to believe they’ll sign either. Little chance of that.
JKB 2
I agree Coast. Its not MacPhail’s style to go sign an aging pitcher to a bloated long term deal. He is smarter then that.
Coast1
He’s very cautious, the opposite of Dave Montgomery. I don’t know if he’s ever signed a player for more than $50 million in his entire career. The only way they’ll sign anyone to a huge long term deal is if ownership insists. That’s the only reason they spent money on the flotsam last year.
metsfan31
Hope a dumb team gives him huge money and he ends up pitching like he did in Baltimore
budselig6969
The Marlins should sign him to a ridiculous amount and then dump him next year.
Stuemke17
Teams are getting smarter and Boras doesn’t have Mike Illitch anymore to write him a huge paycheck every offseason. I think these next few years are going to be eye-opening for Boras with a lot of Kyle Lohse situations hitting all at once. I’m calling now that he’s going to lose a lot of clients in the next few years upon holding out for big money that won’t come, leaving them to sign for nowhere near their original asking price for a team that they do not want to play for or what could be even worse… the mythical hometown discount.
JKB 2
@stuemke17
I could not have said that better myself! Right on man!
Ichiro51
If I see another article about a team “interested”….Every team is interested in every free agent and they all have talks to their agent about them. Why is this even an article?
aff10
It’s a rumors site. If you want only coverage of actual transactions, there are probably better sites out there
Cubguy13
I think the point that Ichiro51 is trying to make is that they should be posting more meaningful rumors.
JKB 2
Ichiro I agree … “interested” is not a rumor. Its an attempted to start rumors. Sure everyone is interested in almost anyone … at the right price
Regi Green
A story of a team being interested is exactly what a rumor is
phantomofdb
If the Phillies could stop driving up market price (neshek and now this) that’d be great.
Coast1
Marrow got more than Neshek. He likely drove up the market price for Neshek, not the other way around.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Boras to the Phillies: “If you guys want a shot at Harper next year, you’d better give Arrieta $200 million this year.”
marckahn
BS. Boras would never turn down a good deal no matter what. All he cares about is $, not even his clients.
Caseys Partner
True, but Boras is just a rep, the client makes the decision and Harper couldn’t care less about Arrieta or Boras.
vlad4hof
If they want to get Harper or Machado and if they’re not motivated by just going to the highest bidder then yea, they really really need to bolster the rotation. Just not sure Arrieta’s the right investment but its hard to really pin down his market value
Caseys Partner
When Arod signed with the Rangers, Texas had the worst pitching in MLB. Look it up.
Money talks, bull….. walks.
vlad4hof
Thats one player. Ohtani’s a player and did not do that. Cliff Lee did not do that when he signed with Philly. Not everybody does it
Caseys Partner
WRONG
Cliff Lee was the highest paid pitcher in MLB history (AAV) after signing with the Phillies. That didn’t change until Sabathia exercised his opt-out.
#Facts
Brixton
It’s not wrong lol. You call his statistic wrong then use something completely different.
Reading isn’t your strong suit, eh?
garchu
Not sure what his value might be, but comparing him to Verlander and Scherzer is down right laughable.
Caseys Partner
Darvish is better. Did he go back to Japan? Just disappeared.
Yankeepatriot
Any team signing Jake shouldn’t do any more than a 2 year deal
Caseys Partner
Oh we all know the Phillies have no interest in Darvish for the same reason as Yuli Gurriel.
Yuli Gurriel and John Middleton see that issue eye to eye.
jdgoat
The Phillies has an Asian player on their team last year
Brixton
you mean they didn’t target a 1B when their best offensive prospect at the time… was a 1B? Shocker
aff10
Nah, he’s insinuating that Middleton and Gurriel are both racist against East Asians (hence, the not so subtle “eye to eye” comment). Obviously, he has reason to with Gurriel, but this is his same tired shtick about the Phillies
mlb1225
Going after Lynn, or Cobb is a better idea than Arrieta. Arrieta is going to cost way more, for similar performance.
teddy 3
Jon Heyman jumps the route again and gets burned.
John Nobles
It seems like Boras is using Phillies as shill or decoy to get value higher on Arrieta so some team over pays
JKB 2
Heyman gets played by Boras all the time