The Phillies have been aggressively shopping for controllable pitching this winter, as the team has “inquired on just about every young starter that could be traded this winter,” Matt Gelb and Matt Breen of Philly.com report. This list of targets include their previously-reported interest in Chris Archer, and the Phillies also checked in with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman and the Royals about Danny Duffy.
It’s clear that Philadelphia is looking to take its rebuild to the next level, after signing Carlos Santana and even adding veteran relievers Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek on multi-year contracts. The rotation remains a major need for the club — Aaron Nola is the only member of a young projected starting five that looks like a solid bet for 2018. It has been expected that the Phillies would try to land at least one veteran innings-eater this winter, though they’re apparently also setting their sights higher for a pitcher that could contribute when the team returns to contention.
Of the two new names mentioned in the Phillies’ search, Stroman is by far the less likely to be available. The Jays are planning to contend in 2018, and moving Stroman would be an even bigger indicator of a total rebuild than even a trade of Josh Donaldson, given that Donaldson is only under contract for one more season. Stroman, by contrast, still has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. MLBTR projects him to earn $7.2MM this winter through the arb process, and while Stroman’s price tag will continue to grow through his arbitration years, Toronto will happily shoulder that cost if Stroman keeps producing as he did in 2017. Stroman posted a 3.09 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.65 K/BB rate and a league-best 62.1% grounder rate over 201 innings, cracking the 200-inning threshold for the second consecutive season.
Duffy, on the other hand, has already drawn a lot of trade attention this winter, with the Cubs, Yankees, and Orioles reportedly among the teams interested. The Royals seem to be on the verge of a rebuild given all of their expected free agent losses, though they aren’t yet “aggressively shopping” Duffy’s services. It was just 11 months ago that K.C. locked Duffy up on a five-year, $65MM extension with the hope that he would be one of the cornerstone pieces of the next era of Royals baseball, though it remains to be seen just how extensive a rebuild the Royals may have in mind. If the team hopes to reload over a year or two, Duffy will still be an asset for when Kansas City aims to once again open a contention window.
If a longer rebuild is necessary, the $60MM remaining on Duffy’s contract makes him a logical trade chip. The Phillies certainly have the open payroll space to accommodate his salary; Santana, Neshek, Hunter, and Odubel Herrera are the only players beyond the 2018 season. Philadelphia has widely been expected to target the top stars of next year’s free agent class, though the team has gotten a jump-start on that plan now by landing Santana. Given the Phillies’ payroll flexibility, they could try to land their desired pitching help by offering to take another big and/or undesirable contract off the the other team’s hands with little prospect capital going back in return. (In the Royals’ case, for instance, the Phillies could offer to take on Ian Kennedy’s deal in order to land Duffy.)
I’d do Hasely, Moniak and a mid-level guy like Quinn/Cozens/Randolph
I feel like that would either get the job done or pretty close to it
For who? Duffy? I think a pitcher like Sanchez or Medina would have to be involved. I doubt any of the three teams listed gives up their controllable starter for nothing but outfield prospects.
It’s gonna take adding an MLB ready player to get the Blue Jays Ace
I wouldn’t trade for Stroman unless I was overwhelmed by the offer. Sorry but his ego and antics are not what I’d want around my team. Very good pitcher but not an “ace” or leader IMO.
Stroman’s “ego and antics” are perfectly fine
He’s an ace. Not every ace has to be stoic like Corey Kluber. He’s emotional yes, but he takes the ball every 5 days. Was the ace of the blue jays staff with a 3.03 ERA. His teammates seem to be fine with his personality.
RHYS HOSKINS
Only way the Santana signing even makes a little bit of sense is if Klentak wants to deal Hoskins.
Hoskins is easily the Phillies most popular player so Klentak shouldn’t be around much longer.
incorrect conclusion.
Wrong Caseys Partner. Rhys going nowhere but left field and the signing makes a lot of sense
Imagine Kyle Schwarber with a 20 arm, that’s Rhys Hoskins in LF.
Hoskins throws like a ball girl. He’s at 1B or he’s the DH.
why would the jays want an MLB ready guy if trading stroman? if they are dealing him, the rebuild is on and they would want high end prospects that are 2+ years away
The price for Stroman would be a MLB ready player plus 2-3 year away prospects. It would take a haul to generate interest to move Stroman. Nature of the deal and of the quality of player.
I don’t know how often those deals happen anymore. If I ran the Jays and wanted to pursue a rebuild I’d take 2 elite A+/AA-level prospects and 1 or 2 low-level fliers for Stroman. It’s too hard to get MLB-ready guys these days unless someone is completely blocked at a position.
0.000000000% chance Phillies trade Moniak for Duffy I could see for Archer or Stroman but even then Phillies probably won’t trade the guy they used their 1st overall pick on less than 2 years ago
Keith Law has been bad mouthing Moniak and says he can’t recognize a slider and said the Phillies are moving him to a corner outfield position which is shocking. Moniak was supposed to be a CF like Crawford was a SS out of high school.
i dont think they are moving Moniak but he hasnt looked special out there yet, and wont disagree with the issue with the slider.
There’s your problem right there if you take anything Keith Law says seriously.
Keith Law thought Jesus Montero would be Lou Gehrig. His word isn’t gospel.
My bad- I was referring to Stroman
I’d be open to adding Medina as the third player
YOURE A PHILLIES FAN?! Duddeee I feel like shooting themselves in the prospect foot for Danny Duffy would be dumb Hasely and Moniak??? And more??? Crazy
Gotta be realistic. Controllable pitching is valuable especially when its an obvious need of a team with a top 5 farm system.
Besides both are blocked. Dubs altherr hoskins williams quinn cozens randolph
I agree, anyone who thinks they are getting a front line pitcher with multiple years of control for less than some of thier best prospects is just a moron.
Does anyone else still think of Duffy as that lefty that can’t seem to stick in the rotation rather than some frontline starter? He’s never pitched 180 innings, he appeared in relief 16 times just last year. He’s good but still..
It would be good for the author to mention some of his stats when he goes ahead and mentions some of Stroman’s.
This upcoming season will answer your questions imo
Too busy watching the Jetsons and regurgitating other people’s blogs to give u his own research and facts. Nonsense like Magoo driving on telephone wires with McBarker in the backseat.
Mr. Magoo was a great driver considering he probably had a below 20 on his vision scouting score.
AGREED
Stroman would cost a Kings ransom unless you took an absolute dead salary like tulo off their hands.
I don’t know if taking Tulo’s contract would even help. The Jays are not short on cash, and a Stroman trade would be a sign of a total rebuild, in which case they ALSO would not need the payroll space. Tulo only has 3 years / $58MM left which realistically shouldn’t be crippling the franchise.
The Jays need to trade Smoak and move Tulo to first to keep him healthy. The less wear and tear on Tulo, the better. Then sign a fill-in SS. Jays are going nowhere this year anyway without acquiring #1 and #3 starters. The Jays current rotation will fall apart again this year. Wait for it.
In that situation they’d likely use Diaz. Just the rotation will fall apart? That team will be below .500. Trust me, the Jays need to start a rebuild.
I haven’t seen him play live, but from what I hear Diaz can’t pick it; he is terrible defensively and that is why he was moved to 2nd. It doesn’t sound like he can play shortstop.
The Phillies operate like a car wash that opens in the winter and closes in the spring. Only Fred Flintstone would think it was a good deal to sign with Joe Rockhead and pay in the gravel pit.
Unintelligible but keep on watching Cartoon Network. I wouldn’t use it for references on this site but it does provide valuable entertainment.
Arrietta?
I think that Moniak/Hasley, Medina, and Williams could be a decent place to start negotiations for a Stroman trade. Crawford, Kingery, Alfaro, and Sixto Sanchez (his name alone is too much value to give up!) are probably the only untouchables. Stroman is a fun pitcher to watch and has proven himself as an ace, but you have to be somewhat concerned about his longevity due to his size. As he gets older he could have a Lincecum level decline.
Toronto should take a lesson from Philly. The Phils refused to rebuild for too long, got old, paid the price, but are now going about a proper rebuild. I’d bet the Jays fire John Gibbons by June 1st and admit defeat. Rebuild, Jays, start now with Stroman and Donaldson.
Further, Stroman is not an “ace” – good lord. He won 13 games last year, he’s made 89 starts in his career with 37 wins. In no way does that qualify Stroman as an ace. “Ace” is a grossly overused term.
Ace refers to the best starting pitcher on a staff.. I haven’t read anywhere that Stroman or Duffy are considered true #1 starters..
… coffinnail, you have it exactly backwards.
Might want to reconsider what measures you use to evaluate a pitcher.
… I’ve a keen eye for pitching. You run all the stats you like (of course, only the ones that fit your debate), I’ll keep up with what’s been working for 40 years.
Stroman was third in WAR in the AL last year
lol your using wins
… and you are an adult using “lol.”
Wins mean nothing. Lets take 2015 Shelby Miller for example. He led the league in losses (17), but still produced a 3.02 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and limited home runs. Why was his record so bad? Maybe it’s because they’re offense couldn’t score runs. They didn’t have a guy who hit 20 homers, or scored 70 RBI’s that season.
lol you’re* lol
And wins don’t show how good a pitcher is. Stromans win percentage is higher than bumgarners and darvishs and is only .10 lower than sale and Arrieta. Those guys all were or are aces, but of course wins and losses don’t show the true picture.
Wins is not a good stat to use look at ERA, BB/9 HR/9
… watching the games Stroman pitches is a solid approach, too.
Nolan Ryan was an ace. Did you know he went 8-16 with an NL leading 2.76 ERA in 1987. And led the league in strikeouts. So wins and losses can’t 100% be used to determine an ace.
Nice cherry pick. Why didn’t you choose any of the 16 seasons when he had a record OVER .500? I agree that wins are not the best factor for judging pitchers, but they are not a non-factor either. Especially when judging older pitchers that often pitched the entire game.
I will also agree with you that Ryan was unequivocally an ace, even if he did walk WAY too many for my tastes. But people often forget that while he holds the career record for strikeouts, he also holds the career record for walks. Which helped him earn a lot of those losses.
Wins are so stupid, pitchers can go 7 innings give up only runs, but if your team fails to score more then 1 run, you get no decision or potentially worse
Felix Hernandez went 13-12 in his Cy Young year, but no one was doubting his status as an ace because of his win-loss. Win-loss is a terrible stat to determine if a pitcher is good or not. There’s so much out of the pitchers’ control, in regards to win-loss, that their record shouldn’t be held against them if the other stats (ERA, Ks, etc) paint a different picture.
Yeah, but lots of people doubted his worthiness of being the Cy Young winner that year too. It really is ironic that people want to forget wins and losses when voting for the award named after the man with the most career wins and losses. Cy Young didn’t have the most strikeouts or the best BB/9 or the best ERA. He had the most wins.
He still had very good stats overall. .2 HR/9. 1.5 BB/9, 2.63 ERA, 749 complete games. None of those stats will ever happen again in this era.
Every team as a #1 starter. There are 6-7 “aces” in all of baseball. Stroman is s good young pitcher, but not an “ace.” For “ace” pitchers, wins still matter – it’s a mindset.
Far too much discounting of wins. Sheep. Stroman an “ace?” Jays fans are precious. No, adorable, Jays fans are adorable.
What’s the point of getting potshots in scully? It adds nothing to your argument. The reality is that Stroman is a budding ace, he might not be there yet, but he’s definitely shown he can be one. The only logic you’ve used to dispute this is wins. That’s not what determines an ace. You can call people names because they don’t use a stat, but it doesn’t make your opinion anymore right. I’ll respect your reasoning, but I disagree with it.
So by your logic, in 2015, Collin McHugh was one of the best pitchers that year, because he went 19-7, but still had a 3.89 ERA?
I disagree with trading stroman. The Jays have 3 years of control left. He is a workshorse and a #2 not a #1. He shows too many blowup inning tendencies. Ace’s don’t do that.
Scully, yes, yes , yes, yes, time for Jays rebuild. This year doesn’t scout well for the Jays – a good start to the season but then lack of quality starting pitching, plus old age will show itself. Out of the playoffs 2nd year in a row.
The Blue Jays aren’t trading Stroman & that is the right move. The organization has traded away far too many young pitchers in recent years. They build the staff around Stroman.
Why not just grab Straily from Miami? Marlins never ask for jack in return.
How about a deal within the Division. Braves would send Julio Teheran, Nick Markakis and Adonis Garcia to Philadelphia for Maikel Franco, Andrew Knapp, and either Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr. Phillies set at catcher with Ruf and Alfaro, Moniak, Crawford and other high rated players in the pipeline to fill vacancies. Phillies get the Braves Ace with a great contract, great outfielder for one year not blocking Moniak and the Braves starting 3b from the past two seasons still pre-arb. Braves improve at 3B, get a catcher ready for 2019, and replace Markakis with a younger outfielder. Braves could substitute Kazmir or McCarthy for Teheran if preferred by Phillies.
I sure wish you worked in the Phillies front office, because i’m positive that Alex A would happily trade you Kazmir (or McCarthy), Markakis and Garcia for Franco, Knapp and Altherr/Williams.
This makes no sense. Why would the Phillies want to make a trade with Atlanta to get a pitcher like Tehran, and then say…”Well, we’ll take the trash you just collected from the Dodgers instead, if that will make you happy”
Why would the Phillies trade anything of value for Tehran? He’s an innings eating fourth starter.
Backatit……..Reading that proposal and trying to figure out how it would help the Phillies literally made my head hurt.
What? No, seriously: what?
Problems with that scenario:
– Teheran hasn’t done anything to prove he’s worth a major haul, because he’s mixed good years with bad pretty consistently
– Markakis has negative value in a trade, as he’s a below-average outfielder on a 1-year deal
– Garcia is a below-average fielder, and a well below-average bat at 3rd, and isn’t young (he’s 30), so you wouldn’t expect much upside
– You’re having the Phillies give up a young, high-upside (and high-value) outfielder, a young, high-upside (and mid-value) catcher, and a young 3b with more upside than the 3B they’re acquiring
This is a dream trade for the Braves. They get to dump some short-term salary, give up a mediocre 3B, and only give up 3 years of a pitcher who’s averaged less than 3 WAR/season over the last 3 years. In exchange, they get an above-average outfielder with high upside and significant team control, a better 3B with more upside and team control, and a solid, young catcher with good upside and team control.
You guys miss the whole point of proposing trades on MLBTR. It works like this:
Commenter’s team gives up the guys the team doesn’t want/need. Some may be worth something. Some aren’t. Whether the receiving team needs those players or even if they fit into the team’s strategy is irrelevant. The other team gives up players commenter’s team wants. The return isn’t supposed to be equivalent and it doesn’t matter if the other team actually would trade those players.
Julio Teheran’s a fine pitcher, but “ace” he is not. Markakis can fill a roster spot everyday with no complaints but he’s a league-average hitter (101 OPS+ last three years).
I wouldn’t call Markakis great. And just because Garcia was the starting 3B at one point, does not make him all that appealing.
Were you smoking dope when you typed this?
I think ya’ll should trade Stroman to the Cubs for Sosa
Next year, they should target one of the top tier starters, like Dallas Keuchel, and then get a solid third starter. Someone like J.A. Happ, Drew Pomeranz, or Gio Gonzalez.
They will be all in next year and they are not done this year. Via trade or FA they will add one solid SP this year and another bat.
I think they are done with bats, Cat. They’ve picked up a consistent performer in Santana as the veteran anchor, and I think they wanna see what the young core can do from there. I can’t say I blame them. 2 SP will round out the offseason, IMO; one FA signing and one trade. I don’t want the FA to be just an ‘innings-eater’ as the Phils have plenty of fringe starters hovering between AAA and MLB to eat innings if they want to. But then again I don’t necessarily want them to get sucked into overpaying for an Arrieta/Darvish either. Garcia/Liriano can be had on a low-risk deal and would finally provide a decent lefty to throw into the RH dominated rotation. Via trade, that’s anyone’s guess. I like Duffy but I don’t think he’s goin anywhere; his contract is just too team=friendly for a small-market Royals club to give up…unless they wanna shed Kennedy’s contract as well; I would be all for that because then we could trade Odubel and a couple AAA prospects to make that happen. Gives Williams and Altherr a full season to see what they are made of before the big FA spending explodes next offseason…
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be wearing Phillies uniforms in 2019.
Bryce is my favorite player.
Are you Matt Klentak’s mother? You’re a serious front office apologist if you think they’ll sign either. And you give them both!
You really think the Phillies will commit 700M between 2 players over the next 12 years?
…and when they both turn into terrible contracts halfway through, you’ll be the first one to complain about it.
Unless Keuchel falls of a cliff in terms of production, I think the Astros will try to match any offer he gets. Their core is still in a position to compete for the next couple of seasons. Unless the Phillies (or another team) offer 7 years or more in a deal (Keuchel is going to be 30 next year), I think the Astros will try to match any contract as long as Keuchel is willing to let them. They might even bite the bullet and sign him to a long contract just to keep him around.
Think Kingery, Odubel, Tommy Joespeh, and Eikhoff or Velazquez could bring back Archer? Maybe throw in Franco if they want to get rid of Longorias money too?
Kingery is as close to untouchable as you can get at this point; he’s not goin anywhere
Kingery is batting in front of Harper in 2019.
That is way too much imo. Kingery and Sixto are untouchables, teams know this, You’d trade Kingery and Sixto for a Roy Halladay type pitcher…proven and controllable. So basically Kersahw… and that aint happening. If its not enough to get it done, they go after others, or simple wait. for the market to develop.
Altherr or Herrera, Medina or Kilome, Cehe, and either Pivetta, Thompson, or Lively should get it done. They can have rupp or joseph as well if they need a bench bat.
Sixto and Kingery are off limits
Young pitchers are not untouchable. The Dodgers “Dream Team” learned this lesson they should have knew with Julio Urias.
I also like Odubel, Joeseph, and Eikhoff, and another fringe arm for Duffy and Kennedy
I would be more than happy if the Phils pulled this off. I can’t imagine ToJo has much trade value at this point, so he would be the final throw in piece if included at all. Package would need to be slighly stronger, something like Herrera, Eickhoff, Knapp, Lively, Joseph would be my guess.
Hey dude – yeah I’m “duding” you – Tommy Joseph is worth less than Pablo Sandoval’s used iPad.
This won’t get Duffy. Even if the Phillies take Kennedy.
Archer or Stroman are my first picks. I’d take Duffy as an add on. The Phils are deep in terms of prospects and money. If teams value any of Herrera, Williams, Altherr, Cehe, and Franco… they have the fire power to pull off 2 trades for young controllable pitching… if they decide to go that way. Their farm system has redundancy …. look at C. Rupp, Knapp, Alfaro, and the braves catcher just picked up. The OF is even worse…. Altherr, Williams, Quinn, Cozens, Moniak, Hasley… etc they couldn’t even hold onto Tocci. They sill have Pullin as well. With this years strong draft coming, they will add a top pitching prospect as well. So they are in really good position to kick this rebuild into hyperdrive … if they decide that is the right move..
My guess is they get one controllable young arm this offseason via a trade. Wait to see if any of their current young pitchers emerge, and then cap off this rebuild with a Machado, Donaldson, harper type signing next offseason… Then will we drain the farm for the needed Arms during the stretch run…
Phillies baseball is back!
How about the Phillies trade for Heyward? I’d love to see the Cubs get rid of his ridiculous salary.
throw in Bryant and you’ve got a deal, Theo
Well if phillies traded for Heyward you think the phillies are taking on all or even most of Heywards contract? Guess again
Of course they are. This MLB Trade Rumors.
Hernandez, Medina, and Kilome gets it done, plus we also probably get a bench piece back. I’d much rather trade less for Happ or Estrada
This is a strong offer IMO, should
Get most of them done. Plus they can add in filler if needed, nothing significant but Rupp, Joseph etc more for them than the Phillies
Do not trade Stroman unless completely blown away, he’s a fan favorite in Toronto and seems like a good extension candidate. Trade Donaldson and Happ for pitching prospects then make a serious run at Bryce Harper next offseason. They’ve already got a solid farm system with Vlad Jr, Bichette, and Alford that could look even more enticing if they added better pitching prospects.
just my thoughts, and no I am not a blue jays fan….but I do believe they have a serious chance at landing Harper.
Not a chance in hell, do you honestly think the Yankees would let Harper just sign in their division? They’d sign the noted yankee fan, Harper first. That’s 4 places Harper won’t be going
Regarding the Phillies: They are a move or 2 away from contending. I like them dealing Odubel Herrerra, Caesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph, and Velazquez or Eikhoff (filling in for Cain, Moose, and Hos) to Kansas City for Duffy and Kennedy (3 years left for Kennedy for more than what KC wants to pay). Then a big signing of arrieta and you have Arrieta, Nola, Duffy, Kennedy, and Vleazquez/ Eikhoff rotation.
I know that sounds a bit like video game general managing but I think its possible. Mets, Fish, and Braves suck. Theres wins to be had in the NL East,
Odubel isn’t going anywhere. Odubel is going to get a ring in Philly.
Kingery 2b
Sanata 1b
Altherr CF
Hoskins LF
Williams RF
Franco 3b
Alfaro C
Crawford SS
Pitcher
Arrieta
Nola
Duffy
Kennedy
Eikhoff/ Velazquez
That would be an exciting team to watch for the next few years
Altherr isn’t an everyday CF, he can fill in there.
not a fan of kennedy. that is a bad contract to have to take on. i like duffy though but not if we are taking on kennedy.
Many of us are not as easily entertained as you are.
The Royals aren’t moving Duffy just to unload Kennedy’s contract. The only situation in which they move Duffy is if they’re blown away with a deal that kick-starts the rebuild too much to pass up.
@ clint – while I would like Duffy (and Kennedy to help facilitate the deal) in the rotation, I seriously doubt the Phils give up their two most experienced position players, Herrera and Hernandez, in the same offseason. Trading Odubel would force Altherr and Williams into starting roles on day one, and I’m not so sure that both of them have earned that much playing time yet. Similarly, a Phils roster without Hernandez would be relying too heavily on the inexperienced duo of Crawford and Kingery up the middle. If the goal is to win games, you can’t trade off both Hernandez and Herrera this offseason. Duffy, Archer, Stroman, etc. likely won’t be dealt unless both are included though, so the Phils gotta get creative.
Philly should take Tanaka and Ellsberry from the yanks for nothing, salary dump. Play Ellsberry in center until moniak is ready, the trade odubel for duffy. I think the center field needy cheap royals would make that deal
So they should bench their best player, Herrera, so they can play an aging faded overpriced player? The Yankees had to include a player to get someone to take Headley. He makes far less than Ellsbury. If you’re going to go for something unrealistic why not just have the Yankees get Herrera in the deal?
Moniak is a little suspect at this point. He will have to prove himself. He was trending down as the season went on vs Hasley who got stronger. Moniak is young, and I will give him time, but early returns have the FO biting their nails
Hasley sucked. He finished at Lakewood with a .694 OPS.
I wanted either Jordon Adell or Keston Hiura – both of whom were picked right after Hasley – but no one at the Phillies listens to me. The dropout in my avatar told me my ideas are “idiotic and absurd”.
If you thinkt he Royal’s trade you Duffy for Herrara straight up, you’re not a very intelligent person.
I know the Phillies don’t need a 2B, but Tribe’s Danny Salazar could be had if PHI also takes Jason Kipnis in the deal. Phils could then include Cesar Hernandez in a deal with TB for another young, controllable SP like Archer or Odorizzi.
Rays are trying to save money, so Cesar Herndandez wouldn’t have a lot of value to them. They’re looking for MLB ready pre-arb talent. They’d probably want Hoskins and prospects.
Which is probably exactly what the Royal’s would ask for in a Duffy trade. Every Phillies fan seems to think that they can keep all of thier top prospects though, because apparently they’re worth more than cost controlled, good starting pitching. Must be some good dope in Philadelphia.
From what I’ve gathered online the Kensington area of Philly has the best dope supply in the USA.
LMAO
Why wouldn’t Cesar have value if they’re trying to save money?
I’m not saying he makes sense to trade to them, but he’s not FA-eligible until 2021, and he’s currently making $2.5MM. He’s Arb-1 this year, assuming they don’t lock him up to something team-friendly-ish.
I wonder if The jays would take Kyle Schwarber , Addison Russell, DeLaCruz , Minor league pitcher T. Clifton , minor leaguer X for Stroman and Donaldson. Move KB to LF. Happ is your 4th OF and backup 2B. Main utility guy. Almora in Cf Baez at SS. EverydY! And maybe D. Barney comes over to fill our backup SS need. Or get Castro from MiA. They’ll prob take thenslarynrelief for a decent prospect or 2