Following two face-to-face meetings, the Padres seem to be the clear-cut favorites to sign free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. Nightengale also notes that the Red Sox are still “lurking”.
The Padres have been frequently linked to Hosmer this offseason, but multiple face-to-face meetings could mean that talks have reached a more advanced stage. Indeed, Nightengale’s use of the phrase “clear-cut” seems to imply that teams have at least made someone detailed pitches by now, and that the Padres are far ahead of their competition.
Hosmer is coming fresh off a career year and is just 28 years of age. He hit .318/.385/.498 with 25 homers in 671 plate appearances. The durable Hosmer played in all 162 games and added a Gold Glove to his list of accomplishments for the 2017 season. Hosmer ranked third among free agents in terms of earning potential on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions piece.
The Royals free agent rejected a qualifying offer, so if the Padres were to sign him, they’d have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2018 draft (in the case of the Padres, who have a pick in Competitive Balance Round A, that’d be a second-round selection). Since Hosmer will almost certainly sign a deal for more than $50MM, the Royals would stand to gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round.
As a Padres fan, I don’t get this, unless (1) it’s under $100 million and (2) there is NO no-trade clause.
It won’t be under $100 million. Boras would wait it out if that’s the case. Not having a trade clause would be ideal. The bigger question is, if they sign him, are they going after Cosart and are they going to get some pitching because their starting staff is less than desirable? Also, does this mean they hold onto Brad Hand if they are looking to compete?
I say no on Hand; they’re still a year or 2 away. They’ll be better than last year it seems- but they don’t have the rotation to contend this year…5 of the 7 Friars prospects are pitchers…Hosmer is about a veteran leader who has won before. AJ is Doug a good job
I would still deal Hand, but the rumors of him have been close to zero. If they could get Hosmer signed, trade Hand a couple of good prospects and then enter the Yelich “sweepstakes”, the Padres would have bettered an offense, while keeping the farm system strong, while dealing some good guys to the Marlins. It seems as though the Padres can always find bullpen guys, so even though Hand is very good, the lose of him would be negated by the gains of Hosmer and Yelich.
On a side note, with the whole Colin Rea fiasco, I am not sure if the Marlins would be interested in making a deal with the Padres even though their medical reports are probably the most detailed in baseball.
If AJ hadn’t sent Castillo back and said “too bad”, I think you’d be right, but he was smart to do that and take Rea back. I think if the offer is good and the fact that Miami has new ownership trying to save money, they would take the best offer they can get, whether its Preller or not.
I’d say for Yelich, offer
Renfroe
Nix
Jankowski
Lauer
They may have to substitute or add someone like Guerra, but not sure.
If they sign Hosmer, wouldn’t the Padres be moving Myers to LF? No need to send 3-4 good prospects to the Marlins for Yelich at that point. Would make more sense to make some trades for pitching. Danny Duffy is available on the trade market and I am sure that Archer is as well.
I agree with you as far as the medical school go, but you never know how a specific GM feels. And if those guys could get Yelich, the Padres would be very happy I would think.
If you want Yelich, Miami is going to want some talent. Renfroe and Jank are ML ready. Nix and Lauer are two of our better pitching prospects. Plus we would have too big a logjam in the OF if we moved Myers and got Yelich. We’d have to move someone from the 40 man to get both Yelich and Hosmer
Renfroe isn’t very good and Jankowski is a 4th outfielder.
Better plan on 200M and full no trade.
No probleme for Boston!! Santana and Nunéz plus Lynn
That’s a recipe for mediocrity
Yea, Santana is terrible, they should spend more to land a guy who’s never put up good seasons back to back.
What measures are you using to evaluate whether a hitter is creating runs or not?
…and last place
Maybe Martinez, Nunez, Lynn & trade for Abreu.
Nunez is a free agent, not under Red Sox control to trade. When you say Lynn do you mean utility infielder Tzu-Wei Lin? Although Joan Martinez is ranked 24th by Red Sox Prospects, he is a 20 year old with only 27 MILB games under his belt, highest level A ball in Greenville and projected as a relef only type. I doubt whether a package of Holt, Eduardo Rodriquez, Joe Kelly, Blake Swihart and #5 Prospect Sam Travis, 1st base or #6 Prospect Josh Ockimey, 1st base would work. More likely Rodriquez, Jackie Bradley jr. , #2 prospect Michael Chavis, Kelly and a lower minor league pitching prospect. Don’t forget we gave the White Sox a great package for Sale. Why would they go for broken bats and infield balls for Abreu?
My man, I’m thinking he means sign: JD Martinez, Eduardo Nunez and lance Lynn … and trade for abreu…
Thanks makes sense now
Sox would be in good shape if they could actually do all that plus trade Hanley to Giants or Dodgers.
I dunno, I think (owner) Seidler is ready to come off the porch and play with the big dogs. They’ll regret not going all out, because it’s not like these type of players, get less and less expensive, from year to year. And Hosmer’s age, helps when they’re talking about contending, sooner than later.
And that timetable (window) is opening in a year or two. So they’re going to need players like Hosmer, who are in their prime. This makes sense to me. Top that off with how low their payroll is right now…Hosmer might get overpaid, but it still won’t break the bank if him and Myers are making all the money. They have pitching/position player prospects that are the real deal…but they’ve also got all those kids at bargain basement prices.
Buyer beware.
I like this deal for the Padres. Lately it’s felt like the Padres have signed over the hill veterans to guide younger players and I think Hosmer would be a great locker room presence and role model for the younger Padres while still being a productive member of the team.
I hate this deal for Hosmer though. He has good gap power that leads to home runs but his lack of monster home run power will hurt his home run totals in that enormous park. However, his average and doubles will likely both rise with more room for those line drives to drop. Have to see how it plays out, but I could see this looking like an overpay if he hits .310-.320 but only puts up 10-15 homers.
Well you have to consider some of the parks he will play in, both in CO and in AZ. They’ll definitely play into his power numbers. Honestly, I can see his gap power playing well in SD and SF, and the rest being balanced out by the smaller parks.
He plays in similar parks now…Chicago, Yankee Stadium….Target Field has gaps. It’s really not enough to grossly sway things probably. He’s also going to be hitting against a nontypical decent staff in Coors…he’ll face the Dodger rotation. It’s a draw I think. He’s just not worth what the reported contract demand is…and the Padres don’t need to overpay because his market is soft. He signs and I think we’ll see the Royals spring quickly to nab Logan Morrison…who’s practically candidating to go to his hometown.
As a royals fan you couldn’t ask for a better man to sign. Not looking at the baseball side of things he is a great person and will always cheer for him. Now as a player he will have major ups and downs. I️ bet her gets a 5 year 125 mil deal. Atleast 2 of those years he will bat 250 with like 10 HRs the others will be at last year or slightly below. He makes great highlight defensive plays but the metrics show him as below average so the gold glove is misleading. I️ honestly thing from a value stand point he is worth more to the royals then any other team but I️ think the Alex Gordon contract will keep DM from going that far above the team high 70 mil contract. No point for the royals to sign him moose and Cain cause it would cost them over 300 million for all 3 and it will just keep us at a 85-90 win team now with no upward mobility. Best of luck to him but don’t expect the padres to get any kind of surplus from this contract if it’s even over 100 mil
I think that’s honest and fairly accurate but I don’t think your .250 10 line is a major free agent contract. That guy gets $25m a season for that? His rah rah power is that great? I’m on the KC market….I’m aware of his presence…and he is more valuable to I’D than anyone….but someone might pay him stupid money to leave.
I also don’t feel KC is much more than that 85 win team for long. Central isn’t a strong now…but we’ll see White Sox win totals pick up soon. Royals are the 3rd best team in the division…and if they aren’t careful they will spin wheels.
I think everyone on here agrees that 8/200 is too much for a guy as inconsistent on offense and poor on defense as Hosmer. MLBTR has him at 6/132 or an AAV of $22 million. For a small market team like the Padres or the Royals, is that a fit?
I guess I’d just want 22m out on pitching because I think you can get a 1B who will potentially outperform Hosmer much cheaper. I’m not sure IF isn’t better at 1B with Logan Morrison. Hosmer is well loved….but so was Bob Uecker..
I think youll get more like .270-.280 with 15hr…and pay dearly for his “prestige value”. I think it’s very telling that this “prestige value” doesn’t seem to mean as much to Boston, who would clearly immediately benefit from that if true. Maybe Boston is aware thats just white wash.
Selling Hosmer reminds me of how Time Share reps sell vacation ownership to the middle class. They give the allure of wealth. Boras is basically saying Hosmer was a world champ…and that will rub off on any team that pursues him. Well, same could be said for anyone on the Royals roster. If you go back and look at Hosmers data..his hard contribution…The guy was struggling to even be replacement level. Royals were sum greater than parts….so unless a team can sign the core of that 2015 team…They really aren’t getting that prestige value.
I don’t doubt Hosmer is a clubhouse presence…but it’s not worth an extra 50-80m.
You do realize the park is more fair than kc ?
This isn’t 2004 anymore
As has already been said, Petco has been adjusted..add that to the balls being juiced last season, and I saw balls flying out of there, I never thought would leave that ballpark. Bottom line, Petco Park is actually more hitter friendly than KC’s place.
And then there are 2 other ballparks in the division that will help his slugging % quite a bit. And if the talks with him are serious, it’s because it’s been explained to him, that his power numbers might actually get a little better, than if he had stayed in KC. But money will determine everything in the end, regardless of all this ballpark adjustment talk.
I’ve always questioned Hosmers vision. He had lasik I believe in the minors.
Say good bye to relevance and hello to meaningless baseball.
If you meant the Padres, that was one brief period of “relevance”.
If you meant the Royals, a good stretch of winning baseball, two pennants, and a world championship were worth it, and they’ve proven they can rebuild and compete in cycles–with wise leadership, that is.
Guessing he meant Hosmer: say good bye to playing in meaningful games if you go from the Royals to the Pads.
The Royals didn’t prove they can rebuild in cycles. This now is their opportunity. They went 1985-2014 on their last cycle…and entire generation. They had high picks and Moore used them well…hit on that Greinke trade. Still they never really developed a rotation. The rotation was supposed to be their strong suit in the Process.
“…with wise leadership, that is.”
They didn’t have that from the time Ewing Kauffman died to the hiring of Dayton Moore, and ownership began letting Moore build the organization.
Oh I remember the calls for Dayton Moore’s head here and other places…his lack of embracing analytics. Honestly, I think he really struck gold on a few things and the timing worked. Yeah I lived through that entire era from 85-14. They weren’t basement the entire time. They drafted amazingly poorly. Capt. Wal-Mart wanted to justify selling a public funding on a Kauffman upgrade so he needed to show improvement on the field. Royals were able to nab Moore away from suitors like Boston because he’s a product of Western Kansas….most people probably wouldn’t have taken the job. It’s been great….great baseball area…but odd….the fans used to dress as seats.
Uneducated statement I believe. One of the best farm systems In baseball, great international activity. They have had relevance as KC over the past 25 years. Just not as much success.
You do realize kc snuck into the playoffs in 2014? They built on the momentum in 2015
I like the addition of Hosmer but not for what they’d end up paying. I would be down at 5/80. Otherwise go get Yelich for the next three years at $45m and keep Myers at 1B.
WS ring.. 1/2 Cuban..fluent in Spanish.. And just entering his peak yrs… More than just a good player ..a great winning leader..to lead the up and coming prospects like Urias ..Tatis Jr ..Morejon..Baez..and current MLBers Margot..ASUAJE..Lamet..PERDOMO..etc… I like it…
Is more an eye on 2019..2020 and beyond..than at 2018 for the Padres…sort of a season for Hosmer to get acclimated..
And that LH bat balances the eighty heavy Pads
What does being fluent in Spanish have to do with anything?
Well it helps to communicate with latin players that speak little or no English. That’s a nice tidbit didn’t know that about Hosmer. If he goes to SD I bet they get fleeced by Boras
Of course they’ll get fleeced; it’s FA and it happens. FA is the time when you drastically overpay for players.
I like Hosmer but his numbers don’t match up to the type of money Boras has been preaching for the past two years. But I wish him well.
Pasame las papas fritas
¡Yo tambien, por favor!
It’s a relevant comment in reference to the fact that San Diego has a large latino population. I could see Hosmer connecting well with the local community for that reason, as well as being a fiery, scrappy winner. Kinda reminds me of when Adrien was playing first for the Pads.
Ok, many players are Spanish fluent. If being Spanish fluent means an extra 25m…sign me up!
Hosmer is valuable…If his “prestige value” isn’t an overpay. I’m sure Boras likes to sell that to owners who basically own teams because of prestige value. Hosmer is basically a Trophy Wife.
pffff, this is all Boras Smoke n mirrors to make a team rush it
^^^Yes. My guess is he fed this story to Nightengale in hopes of raising a sense of urgency among interested clubs.
He’s been talking up Hosmer for two years. This is a culmination of his sales pitch.
The Red Sox could use Hosmer’s leadership, no question, but his bat does not solve the Sox central issue. Plus, I would not box Devers in at third base by signing a first baseman of Hosmer’s standing. Todd Frazier’s leadership, ability to play third and first, may be a better option at present.
This is so stupid
I don’t think this is the smartest on-field move for the Padres given the price people are talking for him. However, if this deal gets done, I think it could be the equivalent of Jayson Werth to the Nats and Pedro Martinez to the Mets. An above market rate for a player who can’t perform to the contract, but brings major credibility to the club and can possibly draw other players.
One difference is that the Nats did that deal one year before they really started to contend. Pads are further off, so it’s not inconceivable that Hosmer is post-peak by the time they start challenging for the wild card.
If they are the only team bidding for Hosmer then they shouldn’t sucker themselves into giving him teixera money as he isn’t in the same league as Teixera was when he was a free agent
That being said the always deadly “mystery team” will get him anyway
Nightingale basically works for Boras. This is nothing more than a tactic to get another team to up their offer. Happens every year.
Like SD is out there setting the market all by themselves. Riiiiight….
Kinda reminds me of when Werth signed a big contract with the Nationals. He left a team he won a WS with and went to a team that is young and upcoming and has been bad for many years.
I thought the exact same thing!
I hope they drive the price up to $200MM so the Red Sox have to pay something close to that for him. I want to see them get locked into one of these contracts again. Everyone thinks Dombrowski is great, but how is that David Price contract looking? Almost all the talent in the system was either drafted and developed by or traded for with talent that was acquired from the Epstein regime.
Nobody really thinks DD is that great. He just happens to work for wealthy owners.
And most of core/prospects DD inherited we’re from Cherington, not Epstein.
Well, Betts seems to be a major piece, and Bradley is a sought after piece. Also, if they didn’t trade Margot, they wouldn’t have gotten Kimbrel. Xander seems to be pretty big piece as well. Pedroia has had an okay career there and still is there. Other than mainstay pitchers I think he pretty much covered them for more years than most GM’s who leave do.
Might wanna check your dates. Mookie was drafted the same year Theo went to the Cubs.
He left in October, draft happened in July
Dombrowski was an astonishing with small market teams. Montreal, Florida….some guys don’t know what to do with cash flow maybe. I’d say he did alright in Detroit…They could have won a couple rings they were right there. But to me…Dombrowski will always be that Montreal GM….He was moneyball before Michael Lewis exaggerated about the As
I honestly would love the royals to bring him back. Their fans need someone to cheer for and they absolutely love Hosmer over there at KC. plus he is young enough to the point that he can still produce by the time a rebuild is done
The Padres would surrender their third pick, which is their second round selection.
Ding ding!! Not a prudent move for a team building from the ground up. JDM would be better positioned in this scenario.
This isn’t the NFL, the value of a second round pick in the MLB draft is pretty negligible. Especially for a team with a competitive balance pick before that and a top 3 farm system. They literally get to make 40 other picks plus sign international players.
If these guys are looking to compete around 2020 most likely that 3rd pick will be doing absolutely nothing for the team.
Hard to say it’s negligible and then make a case partially built on them having 40 more picks. I wouldn’t call a 2nd rd pick entirely negligible. But I wouldn’t blow one for what could be had much cheaper on the market. I’d rather have that 2nd rd pick than a 16 year old Dominican most times.
I’d probably wait to see the deal (if it happens) before jumping to conclusions. I am picturing a 6-7 year deal, but possibly back loaded and opt out after say 2 years if Hosmer not happy with state of rebuild or fit.
Might wanna check your dates. Mookie was drafted the same year Theo went to the Cubs.
Seems like ownership is meddling in prellers job again.
signing hosmer makes 0 sense……..
1. sign matt adams whos cheaper, wont cost a pick, and you can replace him when we face lefties easily.
2. if you dont want to sign adams idk how dickerson is doing with his back but move him to 1st. i believe he played some first in the minors. move dickerson to 1st and put myers in LF.
3. why didnt you go after ryon healy when A’s were shopping him?
4. why not go after dan vogelbach now that the mariners have healy. itll cost you practically nothing and padres can afford to play him and let him figure it out
Boris is a criminal if he worked in the automobile business the D.M.V. Would have hauled him off in handcuffs years ago !!!
For false advertising,bait & switch,high pressure closing tactics salvage titles the list goes on & on .Any owner or g.m. That’s does business with him should have his head examined.your going to get screwed!!!!
Hey Boss, some feller here don’t believe in Capitalism and the Free Marketplace! Must be some kine of furrin commanist addjetater….Say, where’sat Frank Lovejoy when ya need him?
As nice as getting a draft pick is going to be, I wish Royals had traded Hosmer during the season. They could have possibly received a top prospect or some who are ready to reach the big leagues. Draft picks are always nice of course but it’ll take years before we see them debut.
The Royals were 55-48 and a WC team at the trade deadline. They had to take a shot at one last playoff run and that meant keeping their guys. What they should have done is make a trade to pick up starting pitching for the stretch run.
Who would they have traded though? They depleted their farm system for Zobrist and Cueto in 2015 and some of their prospects aren’t doing well enough in the minors to be traded.
I really like this move for the Padres! I hope Hosmer goes to SD.
Indirectly related: I recall Hosmer’s on-field interviews from the 2016 ASG in San Diego. Hosmer stated multiple times how much he enjoyed his weekend in San Diego, “The venue, the weather, and the people… I couldn’t think of a better place to play [Hosmer’s first All-Star Game].”
Seems like that San Diego vibe is calling Hosmer’s name!
I didn’t see those interviews, but I saw an independent video from someone who shoots little videos for the Padres around the batting cage and while they do stretching and stuff..and I remember seeing one with Wil Myers, Stanton and Harper, shootin the breeze. And Harper blurted out, “DUUDE!!!…this place is awesome!..like, are you kidding me right now?!”…and Wil said something like, “I know, right?..”
That’s not a conversation, ANY PLAYER would’ve said in 2004, when the park opened. It was ridiculously pitcher friendly and there was no incentive for anyone to even want the ASG to be there, because the front office was a mess.
That’s interesting, thanks for sharing! Hmmm… maybe Bryce is gonna end up there next off season. He did have his wedding in La Jolla.
Nah, Harper will price out SD…. and that’s fine. But his asking price will immediately cancel SD. And I don’t think we need him, in order to win a WS. Did Houston need him?
Well, by that reasoning, no team in history has needed Bryce Harper.
What’s he supposed to say?
I don’t think I’ve seen any more overrated player in the last couple of years more than Hosmer. He’s a good first baseman. But you gotta be crazy to give him $20+ million. Like if he was a consistent .300 hitter or consistent 30 home run threat different story. But he’s not and he’s a mediocre at best defender. Don’t end up with a Jacoby Ellsbury crowding up your roster!
I agree with most of your post until the Ellsbury analogy. Ellsbury was a player that his speed influenced his value. Once the speed went, so did his value. Hosmer’s value is not based on speed.
And THATS exactly why Preller is perusing him…he knows he’s good and has value in a clubhouse and a young lineup, but I would agree he isn’t a 20 million a year, guy.
He’s a limited dead on average mlb player with some nice intangibles….price that accordingly and that’s his true worth. Problem is Boras isn’t selling him that way. Well see where his deal ends up. I’ll be surprised he doesn’t somehow manage more than that 20m.
Please don’t do this Padres, it’s a trap that Boras is leading you right into.
Would be another Padre blunder