SUNDAY: Along with the Cubs, count the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays and Orioles among teams interested in Cobb, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
SATURDAY: The Cubs added right-hander Tyler Chatwood on a three-year, $38MM guarantee this week, but another sizable investment for their rotation could be on the way. With the Winter Meetings nearing, they’re making a “strong push” to sign free agent righty Alex Cobb, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago reports. Their hope is to reach a deal with Cobb prior to Monday, which would enable them to turn their focus elsewhere during the meetings and prevent other suitors from aggressively pursuing the 30-year-old.
Cobb going to the North Side of Chicago has frequently come up as a possibility since last season ended, in part because of his connection to multiple members of the Cubs’ coaching staff. He played under manager Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay from 2011-14 and was under the tutelage of pitching coach Jim Hickey with the Rays through last season. Hickey, whom the Cubs hired in October, has been Cobb’s sole pitching coach since he debuted in 2011. Cobb spoke glowingly of those two last month and said he’d be “very honored” to sign with the Cubs.
While Cobb would be a risky signing, having undergone two serious procedures (thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2011 and Tommy John surgery in 2015) during his career, he’s still poised to land one of the richest contracts on the open market this winter. Across 700 major league innings, including a career-high 179 1/3 last season, Cobb has pitched to a 3.50 ERA with 7.33 K/9, 2.62 BB/9 and a 54 percent groundball rate. Some of his numbers took a dip in 2017 (6.42 K/9, 47.8 percent grounder rate) – his first full year back from Tommy John surgery – though his velocity looked normal and he managed a quality 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP, also recording a career-best walk rate (2.21 per nine).
Along with guaranteeing a notable sum to Cobb, who rejected the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, the Cubs would have to surrender their second-highest draft pick in 2018 (No. 63 overall) and $500K in international bonus pool space to sign him. But that prospect clearly isn’t scaring off the Cubs, who will collect compensation if their own qualified free agents (starter Jake Arrieta and closer Wade Davis) depart. The Cubs are still interested in retaining those two, per Levine, but picking up Cobb would give them five capable starters (Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Chatwood are the others) and seemingly lessen the chances for an Arrieta re-up.
wouldn’t be at all surprised if he signed with them.
Go get ’em, Theo and Jed!
Beware!!! Mozeliak and all of his magic, is lurking in the wings at the winter meetings!! Get all of your low hanging fruit out and bad contracts to pass on. Mozeliak will be interested in all of them. He just signed a reliever that Houston was proud to get rid of.
Cubs rotation will still be very good but that’s probably a little underwhelming to cubs fans. Q, Lester, Hendricks, Cobb, and Chatwood probably isn’t what a lot of cubs fans had in mind but with the prospects they have left it might be the best move for now.
I’m okay with it. I think the combination of Cobb-Chatwood is at least comparable if not better to the performance that Arrieta-Lackey provided last year. I think the only question mark would be durability as neither Cobb or Chatwood have ever lasted a full season.
Q replaces Arrieta that’s a slight upgrade & Cobb/Chatwood are better than the mess of Lack, & Anderson/Butler/Monty the Cubs used at the backend last year.
Theo needs to sign Cobb, a closer, a LHP like McGee & a RHP like Shaw or Reed and be done. Save trading guys like Happ for July if & when the Cubs see a piece that will help in October.
Cubs can’t afford all of what you’re asking for. Payroll with Chatwood is already close to $140m. Adding Cobb is at least $15m, elite close is $12-15m, McGee will get ~6m, and Shaw/Reed will also fetch around 6-8m. That leaves your payroll about $190 million. Last year the Cubs topped out at $182m. Also, all of those numbers are generous.
Cubs can afford it. They may skimp on the closer to start the year though.
They won’t sign an elite closer and two guys like McGee and Reed.
Agreed. Cobb, Morrow and McGee are all the budget can handle, and even that’s pushing it.
This is a new cubs regime, they can afford to spend like your Yankees!
2017 Luxury Tax started at 193M for your info. Ricketts will spend more if needed.
Cubs had 40 million to spend this off season to match last year’s payroll, also since rondon was let go, that’s another 6.. so 46 mill.. I believe chatwood is getting 11 mill his first year so that knocks it down to 35 mill. If they sign Cobb which I’m not too big on, I’d much rather trade for Michael Fulmer, someone who could grow into something really special, would cost probably around 17-18 mill his first year, then that leaves 17-18 mill.. they could sign McGee and Reed for 12 mill combined for the first year and still have a tad left over. Then they could trade for their closer if they’re not trading for a starter.
Dude the Yankees payroll was 209 mill last year. The dodgers was 244 mill.
John Lackey: $16,000,000
Jake Arrieta : $15,675
Miguel Montero: $14,000,000
Wade Davis: $10,000,000
Jon Jay: $8,000,000
Hector Rondon $ 6,000
70 million off books. Chatwood 12,500, morrow 10,500. Leaves 57 million. Have plenty to spend on Cobb, Lynn, reed , kintzler, Watson types
Wasn’t really considering the opening day roster. End of season roster had Q, Arrieta, Lester, and Hendricks. Cubs should have a strong rotation but I don’t think it’s quite as good as what it was at the end of last year. Arrieta wasn’t a stud last year but asking Cobb or chatwood to replicate what he could give you is difficult. Chatwood should at least be as good as Lackey, likely better. Looks like they might have to jump over that luxury tax if they do what you suggest and make a move at some point this year.
Definitely can’t expect Cobb or Chatwood to give you what Arrieta did, but like hatstotheleft mentions, Q is the one expected to put up similar numbers to Jake. I can see why you’re looking at the staff at the end of the season and comping it what they’d have with Cobb and Chatwood – but let’s not forget that Jake missed almost all of September. Q was acquired in mid-July. The Cubs only had both healthy for about 6 weeks. With the exception of August when Jake was ok fire, Q pretty much did replace Jake down the stretch. And the Cubs were fine.
Also worth noting a few things:
1 – Hendricks missed a huge chunk of the year. No reason to think that will happen again, and the Cubs staff should be better simply with him making 30 starts.
2- Lester had a terrible year by his standards. If he returns to 2016 form, then the Cubs staff will improve. I get that is the second “if” statement, but it’s another that I don’t think is at all far-fetched.
3- The Cubs defense was really their ‘best pitcher’ in 2016. The up the middle defense of Russell and Baez took away hits at an historic rate. They really missed that last year with Russell spending so much of the season injured.
TL/DR: Keeping Hendricks and Russell healthy along with Lester returning to form are much bigger concerns than replacing Jake Arrieta
Excellent overview and summary. You are spot on with the injuries and timing (and potential) impact of the 2017 injuries
How is Q better than Arrieta? A Cy Young winner with a dominant playoff era is not worse option than Q. Q was a weak link this postseason. His best game was his first as a Cub.
Not underwhelmed. Given the needs of the club, and what’s available, they’re very good signings. Also, Lackey was atrocious last year, so his departure is extremely good. Good guy and all, but he needs to hang it up.
Lackey had a lower ERA than chatwood last year. I can hear the groveling about how chatty pitched at coors, his era on the road etc. but he’s certainly no lock to be a good pitcher. Interesting, but risky. Arrieta’s postseason performance will be hard to replicate as well. Only time will tell.
Lackey also led the entire MLB in HRs given up, while Chatwood is an extreme groundball pitcher. I do believe leaving Coors will have a very positive effect on Chatwood’s overall performance.
Russell’s health is key here. If he can stay healthy – or a huge if given his relative health prior to last year – the Cubs infield defense should be closer to what it was in 2016. That would be a huge win for a ground ball pitcher like Chatwood
Actually John Lackey is second in MLB in HRs allowed (36) two behind Rick Porcello (38) for the dubious honor of leading entire MLB in HRs allowed among all qualified Starters, for 2017. (2017 regular season)
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&…
I don’t get whSP Ariel Miranda (37) and Rick Porcello (38) had more HR’s served.
But your point was well taken. I also believe Chatwood will be an upgrade over Lackey.
I don’t get why Fangraphs, didn’t include Ariel Miranda (37 HR served) ahead of Lackey. Ariel had 29GS. Is it because other HR’s given up, when he was a relief pitcher?
foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2017&category=…
Spend the savings from losing Arrieta and Lackey on a couple dominant bullpen arms. The starters didn’t lose it for us against the Dodgers, they left with the lead in a few of those games. The bullpen let us down big time. Sign Cobb, bring back Davis, sign Morrow, trade for Britton. That’s a killer off season.
I agree that I’d rather make these free agent signings than subtract from the major league roster, but it does seem a bit underwhelming considering the top 4 of last year’s postseason rotation (although another commenter makes a great point saying that this is better than the Cubs opening day rotation of 2016). However, the rotation was not a weak point in the Cubs 2017 postseason, so maybe Theo is just hoping for some positive regression (and luck) from the offense.
I’m good with that.
4/73 with an option for a 5th year 18.25m aav total 91.million
4/73 for Cobb would be a little high to me. That’s nearly 20 mil a year to a #4 starter. 5/75 or 4/62 is probably the highest I can see him going and that’s pushing it. But who knows Chatwood got more than expected as well. Still have a hard time seeing 4/72 though.
It shouldn’t be 5 years guaranteed. The qualifying offer is like 17.5 mill. So 18.25 a year isn’t that much of a raise. That’s why said 4/73mil.
If not then something like 3/51 with options for a 4th and 5th year.
You are giving him a raise based upon the qualifying offer? Hilarious! Way too much.
One has nothing to do with the other. Man you think that since he turns down 17.4 that teams are going to guarantee him 17.4 or in your case MORE?? Lol. Wow.
Sorry Wrek Tampa willing to pay him 17.4 for one year does not even mean he is worth it for one year. They were willing to do it with oke year of risk to overpay for one year but they hoped he would say no so they get compensation.
Then here you are out of the gate making his turn down of 17.4 a guarantee and bidding against yourself and giving him a raise and maybe 5 years! Thank god you are not negotiating for the Cubs!
And thank God you’re not one of my in-laws…you can make your point effectively without being a blow hard.
95% of the plays that turn the qualifying offer down. Get a raise. It’s not out of the question for Cobb to get a raise.
That’s a number that was plucked right out of your ass. Most definitely do not get a raise. Most likely 5 of the 9 who rejected this year won’t get more on an annual basis.
Look at the aav. Brett Cecil got 50mil. Mike leake got nearly 50 mil. it’s not out of the question that cobb would get 70ish mil over 4 years.
Nelson cruz and dee Gordon got 75 and 55 or whatever mil. After they cheated. A-Rod cheated for 8 years and got 2 ten year deals. 73mil is the average pitcher contract these days. Yes made it up. That What happens when you predict stuff.
He’s always like that! Always mad
Leake got 80 million !
Cecil got 30 mill. Leake for whatever the downfall is also an innings eater. The same can’t be said for Cobb.
Thats too much
I wouldn’t give him more than 4/60 but that’s just my opinion
Signing ground ball pitchers is ideal for Wrigley. I think signing Cobb would be a good move. I also actually like the Chatwood signing (another ground ball pitcher). We now just need 1 or 2 solid relievers (Morrow?) and wait to add Harper next year. Cubs don’t need to tinker too much with their roster.
Rick Reuschel – one of the greatest groundball pitchers ever.
Heavily under appreciated, too. His career ERA is 3.37
Harper is not happening.
Cobb and Chatwood = underwhelming FA signings.
The combination of the two will be equally as good as the combination of Arrieta and Lackey.
now you a reaching
No he’s not. 2017 Lackey was terrible and Arrieta was pretty mediocre as well.
I agree. Arrieta barely made it through 5 in most of his starts.
Actually, he is, but the other way. They will be better.
Arrieta was mediocre lol good one. Yea he has a rough start but look at his stats overall and look at his stats the second half. The second half he was really good and his overall season stats was better than average. Don’t think that deserves to be called mediocre. I love when a teams fanbase starts talking bad about a guy that they stuck up for or praised the whole time he was on their team and the moment he isn’t he was just ok and is replaceable. See it every year.
Yes you are absolutely correct, I think the Cubs fans were overly spoiled with how ridiculously good he was in the 2 prior years which made last year not look as good but it still was better than average
Arrieta had two great months surrounded by four months with an ERA north of 4.00 and a miserable September with an ERA over 6. Two months of good pitching does not make a solid pitcher.
Arrieta does this thing to you where you feel like a proud dad some days. You’re all smiling like yep that’s my boy right there and and the next outing you’re saying to yourself if Jake arrieta or Carl Edwards JR had any command life would be much easier.
Only underwhelming to casual fans who dont understand baseball
Agreed.
I think mlbtr assessment at 4/48 is right on
I agree, 4/48 or maybe 4/52 is what i would offer if i were a GM, higher if he had ever went over 180 innings in his career. 5/80 or 5/90 is pretty steep, Imo
My gut tells me 4 years 60 million. I think it’s gunna be an interesting case for sure.
Chatwood got $12m a year. Cobb will get $15+
Tyler Chatwood just got 3/38 and you expect Alex Cobb to take 4/48 or 4/52? Lol, yeah, sorry, that’s not even close.
Yeah man. I just think everyone’s low balling the mid tier guys like Lynn and Cobb. Cobb could push 70m over 4 years.
Alex Cubb
Since when is this news?
I don’t think you understand what this site is.
Its rumors not news. Who said it was news?
If the Cubs do sign Cobb, that would essentially end any pursuit of Archer. With the starters they have, I think they are better suited to sign bullpen help.
They should end any pursuit of Archer even if they do not get a single other guy.
ERA over 4 the last two seasons and other troubling numbers. Plus, the Rays are reportedly pricing him like an ACE.
He is, at best, a 4.
now now, he is not a 4, that is a far reach. I would still want him on my team but I do agree he isn’t an ace. His contract is really good and he brings surplus value with that. I do think he would cost too much in terms of players/prospects going to TB to make sense though.
Interesting, picking up two pitchers with 3 Tommy John Surgeries.
It’s not the big deal it once was.
So this definitely mean Lackey and Arrieta will be gone right? Lackey most likely retiring and if he does decide to pitch it’ll most likely be reliever I’d imagine. I have to think they made that trade last year knowing they wouldn’t bring back Arrieta. I know he might get more than he’s worth but if I was the Dodgers I would try to sign him. We’ve seen first hand how good he is even if has declined some over the last two years.
I would think they wouldn’t go back to the Cubs regardless unless for whatever reason they took a well under value deal to go back. I can’t see Lackey being a reliever at all, seems like he only wants to be a starter. He has made plenty of money and has rings so I doubt he sticks around if he can’t find a starting job somewhere with a chance to win.
It was written on the wall that both Lackey and Arrieta weren’t coming back. Arrieta still wants 6-7 years around $25 mil, and the Cubs are not going to give him that. Lackey was worth it in 2016, but last year he was bad. Chatwood eventually replaces Lackey, and a full season of Quintana should replace Arrieta’s production
Arrieta isn’t getting 6 or 7 years. He’ll get maybe 5 but I wouldn’t give more than 4.
Arrieta will probably get 4/100, with a 5th year and maybe even a 6th year option that triggers with innings pitched or cy young placing.
I agree with Wrek. 4 years or let him walk
Go ahead and have the Dodgers give him that 7 year deal then. Who cares. Better to have the Dodgers have that terrible 6-7 year deal then the Cubs.
They really wanted Ohtani and now Archer so we’ll see if Cobb signs elsewhere because if so Rays have lots of leverage. Archer would be a #1 or #2 on Cubs and is grossly underpaid. Lester, Hendriks & Q couldn’t get it done in ’17 playoffs! Arrieta was their best starter in playoffs.
Archer will also cost a ton. They don’t have the minor league system to make that move any longer. It would be a direct and big hit to the major league roster to make that happen. You’re probably saying goodbye to Russell or Baez and Happ+ Might not make the team a whole hell of a lot better. We’ll see.
Lester had a 1.88 ERA in the playoffs. Hendricks started out the NLDS with a 7 IP shutout and has a 2.88 career playoff ERA. There are no questions about the playoff abilities of this rotation.
Archer has not been a number one type starter for at least two seasons now and would not be for the Cubs. He would be a 3 at best for the Cubs
Top starting pitchers in free agency, darvish , Arrieta, Cobb,Lynn , only Arrieta hasn’t had tommy John surgery. Have to pick up somebody. Rather have Montgomery and butler as starters??
I have a feeling Arrieta is going to go to the dodgers
Nah, he’s a Texas guy, probably the Rangers. They lost Darvish and need a starter.
I’m surprised the Phillies didn’t act on Chatwood. I wonder if they’ll go after Cobb.
This discussion doesn’t include the young, arbitration eligible players such as Bryant etc., who will have to have substantial raises in 2018…. this poses a real financial problem for the Cubs
The Cubs have plenty of revenue. Arbitration raises are not going to be a financial problem
Cubs have $40-50 million to spend before they bump up against the luxury tax threshold. That’s after including arb raises and the Chatwood signing.
Just don’t trade Happ
A lot of these, “just sign ____, _____, _______, and ______ then trade for _______,” are based on logic straight out of MLB The Show.
I still think Schwarber + prospects to the Rays for Chris Archer is the better way to go. Would be nice if Cubs also got Colome, but I’m not sure they have the prospects remaining to pull that off.
Unfortunately, I still think it’ll take more than that to get Archer alone, let alone both.
How about schwarber, Russell, and a couple high end pitching prospects
That might be a slight overpay.
“Slight overpay” might be a slight understatement.
Schwarber has no value, Rays have no need for Schwarber and the Cubs don’t have enough for Archer
What cub fan doesn’t think trading schwarber plus prospects is the right way to go? Problem is Theo respects the Rays too much to even call them with such an offer.
♂️
That was a “me raising my hand” emoji.
Replace arrieta with Cobb? Come on. The idea is to at least keep the rotation the same strength wise when the idea is to win it all. Cobb is a step back.
Compared to Arrieta’s 2017, Cobb might not be a step back. Arrieta was great in July/August and abysmal the rest of the year. Depending on Cobb’s durability, he may perform better. And Chatwood away from Coors is likely a million steps better than 2017 Lackey, plus now you have a full year of Quintana instead of a carousel of Montgomery/Butler.
Cobb “might” be better? You question Cobbs durability as you should. With Theo admitting 2018 is year 4 of a 6 year competitive window you don’t say “might be better”. You have to take the better pitcher. Chatwood at the 5 is fine, but Cobb at the 4 is not.
The Cubs have more than just 3 years of competitiveness left with Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras all locked in past 2020.
And what do you expect? Pretty much every free agent starter on the market has risk. Darvish, Cobb, Lynn…all have had durability issues and TJ surgery. It’s pretty clear Arrieta’s not coming back and the Cubs probably don’t have a good enough prospect package to send to the Rays for a guy like Archer.
“The Cubs have more than just 3 years left of competitiveness”
Theo disagrees and says 2018 is year 4 of a six year competitive window.
Don’t know where you got this quote about 2018 being year four of a six year competitive window.
(1) The six year competitive window is not set in stone. They’re not going to email the league office on April 1, 2020 and forfeit all their games that season. That’s an old quote; move on.
(2) Theo’s timing of the competitive window is based on the window in which they’ll have their young position players before they’re free agents. Rizz will be a FA in 2020, but KB, Addy, Javy, and Schwarbs won’t be FAs until 2022, and Contreras won’t be a FA until 2023. 2015 wasn’t year one of the competitive window. They were a year or two early.
The Braves need to make run at Cobb and then trade Teheran to the Brewers for Santana or Yanks for Frazier and no I don’t think it would be a 1 for 1 deal
Chatwood was a good signing. Cubs fans are going to be pleased with him. I don;’t scout Cobb as a good signing, he is what he ism an often injured 3 or 4 in the rotation. Resigning Arrietta would be much better perfrormance value although probably cost a lot more.
Good on Theo to go after starting pitchers. He knows how to win,.
Honestly a smaller scale trade for a starter that wont cost much, like an ervin santana, who is short term and spend that money to beef the bullpen up isnt a bad idea, either. Eat innings and keep em in the game on a short deal….Santana is an example…Go for another ace in FA next year instead. But, Id resign Davis, add shaw, jacob mcgee and maybe another veteran starter for depth. Chaffin for 3 yrs..or a 1 yr guy…having 6 or 7 starters deep for a playoff team and a solid bullpen to me is more worth it than a bidding war on cobb right now.
Sign Jake. He is the best guy out there. In the end the Cubs will pay him. Tom, Jed and Theo are no dummies. Tom has the money and I’m certain he is willing to pay. Alex Cobb is just smoking mirrors. Two major surgeries in the past five years. Not a good investment considering it would take 18 million a year to sign Cobb over 3 years. Dump Jason’s mammoth contract and pay the difference to Jake. Then make a play for Harper next year. My money is on Jake
Cobb’s a GOOD pitcher, but when you’re losing a GREAT pitcher like Arrieta, you have to try and replace that the best you can. Signing Chatwood is fine, potential to grow as more than a 5th man, but signing Cobb for 15-18 mil over the next 3-5 years to be your #4 guy?? Why not go after Archer?? Yes, it will cost you some MLB talent but Archer is under contract for a few more years, he’s younger, cost way less, and more proven than Cobb! Send them either Russell OR Baez with some prospects or maybe Schwarber and Baez as a package and get a GREAT pitcher for a lesser $$$ amount. Plus, Happ can takeover for Baez just fine and it opens a spot for Harper in the outfield next season!!!