The Phillies recently beat the market for first baseman Carlos Santana with a three-year, $60MM deal. This is a team that won 66 games in 2017, and despite also adding a pair of veteran relievers, doesn’t seem like they’re making a full push to contend in 2018. The Santana signing got me thinking about other recent free agent deals given out by teams that had been in a clear rebuild. Here’s a look at how five recent examples turned out. Note that this excludes something like the Red Sox signing Pablo Sandoval, since the team wasn’t tanking prior to that contract.
- Coming off a 73-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal, the second-largest of the 2014-15 offseason. While the 2014 Cubs were clearly tanking, it was the third year of that effort under the Theo Epstein regime. The Lester signing, which took some convincing on the Cubs’ part, was the signature move of an offseason that also included the additions of Joe Maddon, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel. The timing of the Lester signing made sense, and the 2015 Cubs won 97 games and made it to the NLCS.
- Coming off a 51-win season, the Astros signed pitcher Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30MM deal, the 14th-largest of the 2013-14 offseason. The Astros made this move despite having a year left in their tanking process. This was the offseason in which the Astros also acquired Dexter Fowler and several veteran relievers. The Feldman signing was one of those “respectability” type deals for a team not quite yet ready to win. While it may have been unnecessary, it’s also the smallest on this list and didn’t end up hampering the Astros.
- Coming off a 61-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2012-13 offseason. The Cubs were entering the second year of their rebuild, and they settled for Jackson after missing out on Anibal Sanchez. It didn’t take long for regret to set in on this one, as Jackson was terrible for the Cubs from the get-go. The Cubs likely saw Jackson as a high-floor pitcher who could take the ball 30 times and bring stability to their rotation, but do clearly rebuilding teams need to spend good money on that?
- Coming off a 69-win season, the Nationals signed right fielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal, the second-largest of the 2009-10 offseason. The Nationals would win 72 games in 2010, but then jumped to 80 wins in 2011 and 98 in 2012. The team made the playoffs in 2012, ’14, ’16, and ’17, and Werth was a big factor in the team’s success in ’14. Werth was good for just 3.0 WAR from 2011-12, but performed as a star-caliber player from 2013-14 with 9.7 WAR. The Werth contract was widely panned at the time it was signed. Though Werth concentrated most of his value into two of the seven seasons, the Nats didn’t come out that poorly overall.
- Coming off a 62-win season, the Royals signed pitcher Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2006-07 offseason. The Meche contract was a real eyebrow-raiser at the time, but the righty was actually quite good for the first two years of the deal before injuries became a problem. Meche is now best known for his stunning decision to walk away from the final year of that deal, forfeiting $12MM. Though the case can be made that Meche was “worth” the money in his two good years, the team never contended during his tenure. Would it have mattered if the 2008 Royals won 68 games instead of 72?
With the Santana signing, the Phillies can at least make the argument that they have a shot at contention in 2018. The club currently projects for about 78 wins, but with a few more moves they can push into the range of the second Wild Card. Teams like the Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mets aren’t too far ahead of them (this assumes the Cardinals are the favorite for the first Wild Card). On the other hand, the Padres currently project for about 73 wins, which is why their flirtation with Eric Hosmer makes little sense. The club would likely waste the first year of a Hosmer deal on a losing season, plus Hosmer simply isn’t as good as Werth was. I think, for the most part, teams don’t need to sign large free agent deals until they’re actually ready to contend.
IIRC, wasn’t the Werth deal panned and the Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee deals (who both signed the same offseason) highly praised?
While you’re right, the Nats were a bad team going into that offseason (which is what the article is focused on) while the Red Sox and Phillies were coming off of winning campaigns.
Just pointing out how Crawford was a total bust (and missed tons of time) and Lee missed the last 1.5 seasons of his deal, while Werth provided at least decent value.
Carl Crawford is probably the worst free agent signing ever. You know who signed him?
Theo “Jason Heyward” Epstein.
Heyward was a massive overpay, but the deal won’t be a complete sunk cost as long as he can hit for a roughly .720 OPS w/ that elite defense he brings to the table.
He’s still a valuable player IMO, but that 2015 w/ St. Louis was clearly a fluke.
In my opinion, Ellsbury is a worse deal than Heyward’s
If I remember correctly he was brought on at the insistence of John Henry and Larry Luccino
Plus he is a good base runner u do not find that every day.
The problem is baserunning and defense deteriorate just as fast (or even faster) than the hit tool. Relying on his stellar defense is just as foolish as a GM relying on a slugger to keep hitting into his thirties.
So what is your point Casey. Theo has 3 world series rings. Is that the best you got?
What happened to the Cubs “dynasty”? 18 months ago everyone was talking about the need for every team in the NL Central to rebuild because no one had any chance of topping the Cubs for the next half dozen years.
Look at the Top 100 prospect lists, where did that Gleyber Torres guy come from?
Every Cubs fan looking at the free agent market next winter is like “Bryce Harper!……oh wait……”
The cubs have been in the NLCS the past three years…
Yes, let’s see what you think of that elite defense and base running when he starts breaking down and you still owe years of salary.
While the Ellsbury deal was bad for the Yankees, stating his was worse than Heywards is a HOMER comment.
Yes, thats what you get when you “tank” for 3 years or so and can accumulate some top tier talent…
Let’s not Honor Theo too much as he presided over the tanking, and has ownership with big pockets (reference the Hayward deal).
Well as of now, in their 6 seasons combined in their contracts (4 Ellsbury and 2 Heyward), Heyward has 2 of the 3 worst seasons according to WAR
4.1 (2014 Ellsbury)
2.0 (2016 Ellsbury)
1.6 (2017 Ellsbury)
1.5 (2017 Heyward)
0.9 (2016 Ellsbury)
0.9 (2016 Heyward)
So far Heyward has done far worse than Ellsbury. Though of course the Cubs have done better than the Yankees in that time period as well.
Hey….you leave Chris “I can’t bat my body weight out” out of this! Haha there are so many bad deals out there.
Heyward is still decently young. He still has a few years left before his defense n base running skills start to deteriorate. And after this year he loses his full no trade clause. Which means the cubs can easily trade him to a team and package someone like Happ and a prospect so a team will eat like 90% of heywards contract.. then that would free up about 20 mill, and would make signing Harper even more of a guarantee.. but I have a feeling the cubs are going to be the best team offensively this year.. Russell, schwarber, heyward are all going to bounce back and live up to their potential.. and if that happens it’s gonna be a walk through the season and playoffs.
It was the Dodgers decision to take Crawford for the Punto deal to happen.
Beg your pardon, as a Mets fan how about a .205 batting average and 26 total homers in 3 yrs for our slugging Jason Bay back in 2010-12 @ 16M per year..now that was bad
Remember the last time fans were guaranteeing a certain someone was gonna sign with their club? Wouldn’t want to be those guys.
You gotta get on base first!
internet1tough1guy If your aunt had balls she would be your uncle
Not Crawford, but Lee yes.
I think most thought the Rays as getting the best bargain by Crawford going to Boston. Hey got a rivals top pick, and replaced Crawford with Jennings who they projected to be just as good.
A TIM DIERKES SIGHTING!
I’m here all day!!!
Would you ever run a piece with mock trade predictions kind of like the FA predictions? That could be fun to read especially in a slow offseason.
Yeah like look at the top trade candidates list and generate a list of likely destinations and an estimation of the package each would offer. A lot of work, but very in depth and interesting.
Even a bulleted summary or digest of the “possible destination” articles that sometimes appear would be useful / entertaining.
I’m amazed that teams keep handing out free agency dollars that lead to sorrow in most cases. Take the Marlins. Horrendous free agent signings of Chen, Prado, Volquez, Ziegler and Tazawa cost the team Stanton and Ozuna, who were sacrificed because those foolish contracts have to be honored.
$20 M a year for Santana? The team needs pitching, not a first baseman. In effect, Philly threw away the value of having a cost controlled younger asset there for the next three years. Will Santana produce better than Altherr or Williams (one of whom he will displace)? Questionable.
Although I agree that Arrieta / Darvish is a bigger need for them than another bat, I think the reason the Phils went after him was because Santana could only be had for three years.
The Santana signing made no sense to me, and I love him as a player.
Yes Santana will produce more. He is an outstanding professional hitter
As a stand alone contract Santana is a reasonable expense,but when you add in that you’ll be playing your best young cost controlled hitter out of position for three seasons it becomes more expensive in that it doesn’t really fill a hole.
If the Phillies want to compete now and they have money to burn as the prevailing logic asserts, then sign JD Martinez and Darvish instead and become instantly competitive and have free agents flocking to your team next season as well.
Free agents do not flock to any team. They sit at home waiting for someone to drop the big money bomb on them.
Harper and Machado would both sign with the Phillies next winter even if they only won 59 games in 2018.
Just show them money that no one else will.
That’s kind of my point since people are justifying the deal by saying it will make Philly more attractive to free agents next season.
This is not accurate. Just one example: back in 2000, the Tigers offered former MVP Juan Gonzalez an 8 year / $140M deal before the season expired. He declined it and signed a 1 year / $10M deal with Cleveland during the winter of 2000; where his career would begin to sharply decline.
The Tigers were about to embark on a long stretch of bad baseball and Juan Gone realized this. Players look for fit as well as dollars and don’t just “chase the money”. I’m sure there are numerous other examples but this is one I will never forget. Blessing in disguise for the Tigers.
How could mere additions of Martinez and Darvish matter? Phils still wouldn’t have a pitching staff.
This contradicts an assumption.
You assume they can get Martinez and Darvish while not being competitive. But then state that free agents chase teams, and would chase the Phillies because of those two players.
Why wouldn’t Darvish and Martinez care about where they play if future free agents would value that?
Either way, I’m a believer that teams need to rebuild and tank and only sign free agents as compliments to an already home grown built team.
Stanton’s was a foolish deal as well
Honestly I’d say most free agent signings are ultimately disappointments because they’re forced to sign aging players usually past or approaching their peak for the most amount of money in that person’s career to date.
We just ignore the idea that most are barely better than the value you’d get by letting kids play for the times you do sign a guy who turns out to be a better value than the contract they signed. The short term deals for 1-2 years are usually fine. Anyone signing a 3 year or better deal is usually something you get 1-2 years of value from and you write off the last one (and obviously it gets worse as the deal gets larger, hello Albert Pujols’ massive contract and the 4 more years of probable negative WAR contribution!)
I’d love to see an analysis piece of how many players that sign a contract after they’re 30 for more than 3 or 4 years actually produce value through the end of that contract and how many players are essentially toast well before the end of the deal.
I think a lot of people wouldn’t beg for their teams to splash cash on players in free agency and would prefer to trade for the 20-something’s with promise instead, sign those guys to a deal that ends when they’re 34-35 and maybe not fall in love with prospects as much because trading prospects seems to me to be the better play than letting them get drafted by someone else while you sign a 33 year old outfielder to a 5 year deal.
The Phillies haven’t won more than 73 games since 2012…..If they didn’t start making some big free-agent signing’s nobody was going to come to the ballpark in 2018…..
The Phillies were the most profitable team in MLB in 2017.
Source? Not doubting you, I’m just interested where my Mets are (guessing its not very high)
The Mets are nipping at the Phillies heals in profitability. Fred Wilpon is a legendary looter.
How about the I’d? Just curious, because profitability seems to be all ownership cares about.
No…you should definitely doubt him. He makes up his own “facts” when it comes to the Phillies.
You can’t document even one such incident.
Yes…no one puts butts in the seats like Carlos Santana. Think of all the little leaguers imitating the way he draws walks.
If only more Little League coaches taught kids to draw walks…
actually, I think kids should be imitating the way he draws walks, rather than imitate someone like Gallo who just hits hone runs and nothing else.
I dunno, personally I find walks to be super boring in youth sports. I guess it’s important if you’re going to play at a high level though.
And when you’re young…. chicks dig the longball.
Yeah, seeing the kid swing at outside pitches is far more entertaining.
Thank you Bastros. Too many posters just do not understand the game
If you think all he does is draw walks you do not understand baseball
The point of the comment was that it is not a sexy signing that people are going line up at the gates to watch play. Had nothing to do with not knowing baseball.
Right. Little Leaguers today imitate bat flips.
Funny!
Hats off to Dexter Fowler for being acquired by two of the “bad teams” featured in Tim’s article.
If things go as planned, it looks like Hosmer to San Diego would fit well with an article like this. Obviously, no way to know how he’s going to age or even perform going forward, but on the surface it seems like an odd move for a bad team to make.
If SD was clearly an up and coming team on the brink, Hosmer would make sense. But that pitching staff looks to be even worse than last year, and Preller doesn’t seem to have much of a sense of urgency to improve it any time soon. He just seems to have a “let it ride” attitude like Baltimore has so far this winter. If either team is waiting for major bargains in January, they’re about to find out that the bottom of this barrel is several fathoms deep.
werth completely changed the mind set of the organization and help lead it what it is today. (although I fear we are 2-3 years from a total rebuild)
The Nats have some good position prospects. They are in far better shape sans Harper than the Braves or Mets are.
They are losing Murphy too and Scherzer is 33 and has a ton of mileage on that right arm of his (there’s a decent chance he falls off a cliff like Halladay did in 2012)
I think it all comes down to if they can resign Rendon in a couple years. If he walks, it’s probably the beginning of the end.
I remember feeling that way in 2014. Hopefully your next few years go better than ours did.
Wouldn’t winning have changed the mindset, without Werth?
I don’t know if they would have won without him coming in. I remember 2 days into spring training and Nyger Morgan was acting like an idiot and Werth basically threw him out of the locker room, which caused him to get cut (or traded. I don’t remember). But I think without the Werth signing, I don’t know if they ownership commits to getting the right people in to win.
of course, it could have everything to do with Mike Rizzo and not Werth. But I think the incident in the locker room got the ball rolling.
What a cynical, crappy article.
Crappy, maybe. I didn’t really feel cynical writing it though. I like free agent signings, I just think large ones don’t make a lot of sense when teams are still in the rebuilding process.
Tim, I actually thought this was a good article. They’re interesting to read when literally nothing has happened as of late.
See my comment on Philly and Miami trading entire rosters. That’s something you might write about! Logical for both franchises. A huge thought to wrap one’s head around … but hey, the Marlins were worth keeping together.
I agree with you Tim. The obvious way to rebuild is what the Astros did.
However, In the case of Philly I think they intend to break the bank next year and this is just phase 1.
@Tim
Nothing cynical about it. Its a valid point and an issue rebuilding teams most likely ponder with all the time.
Not talking about Santana but like Theo said once (I think) you can only sign the free agent when he is available. Thus sometimes you may consider a signing earlier then you like but if you think the players deal, lets say 5 year contract, fits your expected competitive window and if that player can contribute at a high level during it.
I assume this is what splits the Padres front office on Hosmer. He is 28 but are the Pads a year or two away or three or 4?
yes i remember hearing that Theo told Lester if he signed with Cubs they would cut short the rebuild and go all in.
Or forever?
Agreed Tim, good piece.
Boy, I don’t get your comment…The article is a recitation of facts, with opinions on those facts. It was informative and cautionary. If you have something to back up what you said I’d like to read it.
It’s good to be reminded that our dreams of big ticket guys to put our teams over the top more often turn into nightmares.
Of course, I still buy powerball tickets.
You really shouldn’t use the term tanking without defining it. Its a term that gets thrown around lazily on comments boards. If its going to appear in articles there needs to be a real definition.
@Geez
I too do not like that term. Like you I hear it on TV, the radio, comment boards. Tanking is “all the rage”
I believe its called rebuilding. When you rebuild you play many young players as a numbers game to find the ones you keep. And you keep trying more and more and waiver wire claims and rule 5 trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
You look to add talent wherever you can that will be worthwhile when you believe your window may open.
Thus you do not try to finish .500 or sign or play aging veterans that block young players playing time.
Naturally a by product is you will not be very good for awhile.
But for anyone to suggest teams tank meaning wanting to lose games is a joke. The team will not be good so they lose but its not like they play the game and try to lose or that they are not looking to find young talented players who can play. But you need to play a bunch of young ones to find out and most of those will be no good.
Teams intentionally lose games to get better draft position and a bigger draft dollar pool to spend.
The Astros were open about this.
#Facts
They don’t “intentionally” lose games. That would imply the players go out on the field and purposely play badly.
Selling valuable trade pieces to invest in your team’s future does not equate to “tanking”.
No, tanking is done primarily from the front office by rigging the roster. The best way to do it is with horrible pitching. You can allow position players to develop and succeed while still racking up the losses.
Rebuilding and tanking are two different things. They aren’t mutually exclusive, but don’t always happen together.
Losing on purpose. Punting a season.
If the Cardinals are assumed as the favorite for the wild card spot, where does it leave Milwaukee? I’m a Cardinal fan but Milwaukee seems to be peaking right now. Meaning they are fighting the Cubs for the division. Leaving the other team with the wild card spot.
I came here to say this, thanks.
As a 73-win, if you are into FanGraphs projections.
I too liked the article and found it interesting and a nice change of pace from just rehashing old rumors or posting a Machado or Stanton update.
Nice Job Tim
To say that the Pirates, Giants, and Mets are ahead of the Phillies is a stretch. Philadelphia will finish at least 5 games above them all and the Pirates could easily lose 95 games.
Philly’s fast track to the top was just sitting there. One trade. Exchange 40-man rosters and DL lists with the Marlins. Marlins get a young nucleus for 2018 and no payroll – obvious benefits. Philly sells a million more tickets as fans go crazy for HR derby by Ozuna, Stanton and Bour. If the Phillies hesitate, you let them keep Aaron Nola.
Now the Phils could sign Darvish and challenge the Nationals!
A rotation of Darvish, Nola, Urena, Straily. etc. works for a team that scored 100 more runs than the Phils in a much tougher ballpark.
Stanton and Ozuna aren’t Marlins.
No, actually, the Phils will not.
Mariners signed Cano to a good sized contract coming off another mediocre season.
But, they weren’t really “rebuilding,” either, it was basically just another season in the PNW.
Braves go into full blown rebuild. Trade JUpton, Heyward, Gattis, Kimbrel, etc.
Sign Nick Markakis to 4-year deal ??????
Damn. Hosmer is so much better than Werth…
Can’t see how that’s true.
Guess you’ll see in 10 years when he’s Werth’s age then
Last year the Phillies paid Hellickson, Buchholz, Saunders, and Kendrick $51 million. The 4 combined had 3.7 WAR in 2016, They weren’t any good, so no one batted an eye. Three of those guys didn’t play much in 2017, so they didn’t desperately need them. Teams like the Reds and Padres got cheap vets when they needed them.
This year they are paying Santana $20 million. He should be pretty good. People have no problem with the Phillies paying him $20 million a year for 2019 and 2020 when he could contribute to a winning team, but do have a problem with him playing for them in 2018.
I don’t get why it’s smarter for the Phillies to pay bad players $50 million than good players $20 million.
Their moves last winter were pretty bad. I agree that they deserve more attention for that.
“What do you think of your teams front office?”
Jeanmar Gómez $4.2 million (obvious non-tender)
Joaquín Benoit $7.5 million
Jeremy Hellickson $17.2 million
Clay Buchholz $13.5 million
Pat Neshek $6.5 million
Howie Kendrick $10 million
Michael Saunders $9 million
—————————–
$67.9 million
You don’t think flushing $68 million down the toilet qualifies as stupid?
Cesar Hernandez is a hot trade piece from the work of Larry Bowa who has been relieved of his duties along with the fine manager Pete Mackanin, who was well liked by his players who always played hard for him and many of whom showed well in the second half of the season.
Now the Phillies have as their manager a guy who blogs about wacking off with coconut oil and who hired a 28 year old Dodgers farm hand as an assistant hitting coach.
——–
Cesar Hernandez had better be gone and Jordon Adell or Keston Hiura on the Phillies farm in the next two weeks.
.
A post I left at PhillyVoice about a month back.
It was insane. Ownership told MacPhail that he couldn’t go into the season with the lowest payroll or the fans would revolt and think ownership was going back to the 90’s. MacPhail doesn’t like spending money and certainly didn’t want to spend it on the team where they were in development. Has anyone ever heard of an owner that wanted to spend but a team president who wouldn’t? It’s the other way around.
So he had Klentak scour baseball for the worst one year contracts and acquire them making sure the Phillies paid 100%. I’m sure the Red Sox and Dodgers offered to pay part of the deals but that would’ve lowered the Phillies payroll.
I’m speculating here but I think MacPhail reveled in how bad the players they acquired were so that he wouldn’t be under pressure to spend money “chasing unicorns” in the future. MacPhail said he’d spend free agent money in the future on hitters but not starting pitchers. So this year when Middleton ordered him to increase payroll he begrudgingly signed Carlos Santana. At least he could help them win in the future.
I suppose it’s nice that MacPhail, and his protege Matt Klentak, are cautious but a big market club has an advantage that they can be a little reckless where a small market club really can’t. I don’t think they’ll agree with that. So they throw away that advantage.
Along the theme of this article – I never understood Robbie Cano going to the Mariners. That deal definitely has not lived up to expectations
Dierkes: if you had to watch Myers play 1B 162 games/year you would appreciate the pursuit of Hosmer! He is a fish out of water.
Wil Myers last two seasons at first base (+9 defensive runs saved above average).
Eric Hosmer last two seasons at first base (-13 defensive runs saved).
Obviously, the defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but there’s no compelling statistical evidence that Hosmer’s better than Myers is defensively, quite the contrary, actually
Isn’t Justin Bour better than Hosmer right now? $3.6M this season. Padres should grab him and give Chris Paddack back.
The Padres took on Chase Headley’s contract to get Bryan Mitchell. They are, in essence, paying $13 million for Mitchell. They do get him for 4 years but if he’s a good investment he will get good money in arbitration. The Padres also traded for Freddy Galvis.. He should make around $7 million. Even with these players the Padres look like they’ll have a payroll of $64.5 million, well below the $100 and $108 million payrolls from 2015 and 2016. So they can probably add more payroll.
Which is better, paying $20 million in 2018 to Headley, Galvis, and Mitchell or to Hosmer? If the Padres can go to $85-$90 million is there a better way to spend the money than on Hosmer?
If Hosmer were signing 1/$20M, I’m sure a ton of teams would’ve been all over him. It’s the length for a player with a spotty track record
That may be your reason for questioning a Hosmer signing but that’s not the point of this article. Tim doesn’t have an issue with the length of the deal or question Hosmer’s ability to produce. He questions why would a bad team sign Eric Hosmer to a deal.
I imagine the Padres signing Hosmer to 1/$20M would be worse than 6/$120M from the perspective. In the former they’re paying Hosmer for a season they’re bad. In the latter they can reason that it’s worth it to have him playing for a bad team in year 1 because he’ll contribute to good teams in years 2-6.
No mention of the 2015 Padres?
No mention of my tomato sauce recipe?
Another example might be the 2012-2013 Indians, coming off a 68-win season, signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to four-year deals.
How is james shields to the padres not on this list?
He was 34 or 35 when he signed for 5 years 75 mill.
Won like 77 games year before.
The Shields signing was part of more of an all-in push to win (however ill-advised).
Lee was outstanding before Sandberg threw him out there for a 133 pitch outing following a series of less blatant, but still high pitch outings.
I put that on him and I put not trading him on RAJ. Lee was outstanding when he was out there.
nice article Tim. like another poster said, was a good break up from the drag of free agency lately