The Red Sox are “very interested” in White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, which runs contrary to previous reports. The Cardinals are also after Abreu, Cafardo adds, which isn’t surprising for a team that just lost out on Giancarlo Stanton and continues to seek a power bat. Abreu, who will turn 31 in January, slashed .304/.354/.552 with 33 home runs in 675 plate appearances last season. He comes with two years of arbitration eligibility and will earn a lofty sum – a projected $17.9MM – in 2018. The White Sox want “top prospects” for Abreu, per Cafardo.
More from Cafardo, whose latest column previews the Winter Meetings for all 30 clubs:
- With an obvious need at third base, the Giants are primed to go after the top two free agents at the hot corner – Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier – Cafardo notes. The 29-year-old Moustakas (a California native) figures to reel in a much larger pact than Frazier (32 in February). Moustakas is also a qualifying offer recipient, so signing him would cost the Giants their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison has drawn interest from the Rockies, per Cafardo. Signing Morrison, who MLBTR projects will land a three-year, $36MM payday this offseason, would presumably send Ian Desmond to the outfield full time as Carlos Gonzalez’ replacement. It could also give the Rockies a significant offensive boost, with the 30-year-old Morrison having slashed .246/.353/.516 with a personal-high 38 homers in 2017.
- The shortstop-needy Padres will pursue the premier player available at the position, Zack Cozart, according to Cafardo. Cozart was one of the best players in the majors last season, pairing his usual excellent defense with uncharacteristically great offense (.297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in 507 PAs), but the longtime Red isn’t a free agent at a time when many teams are seeking a shortstop, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. That could negatively affect his market, then, though MLBTR still forecasts a respectable contract (three years, $42MM) for the 32-year-old.
- The Brewers would consider proposals for left fielder Ryan Braun, Cafardo suggests. Milwaukee has no shortage of outfielders, which could open the door for a Braun trade, but moving him would be challenging. The 34-year-old posted one of his worst seasons in 2017, thanks in part to injuries, and still has $57MM coming his way (including a $4MM buyout in 2021). He also has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player.
- Along with the previously reported Raisel Iglesias, the Reds are “open to offers” for left fielder Adam Duvall, Cafardo relays. Duvall, 29, would provide cheap power to a team in need of it – he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter and is fresh off his second 30-home run season in a row (though he hit an underwhelming .249/.301/.480 in 2017).
- The Athletics expected to retain infielder Jed Lowrie as of October, but now they’d “certainly be willing” to trade him, Cafardo reports. Lowrie will enter his age-34 campaign in 2018, in which he’ll earn a very reasonable $6MM, after turning in one of the healthiest and best years of his career last season.
- Orioles reliever Mychal Givens will be in “great demand” at the meetings, Cafardo writes. The 27-year-old is coming off his second terrific full season in a row and is under control for the next four years, including a pre-arb season in 2018. For those reasons, the Orioles may decide to keep the right-hander.
Ryan Braun posted his worst season in 2017 in part because he’s no longer juicing.
He missed a ton of games. he has had really good seasons since he stopped “juicing.”
that’s why I said “in part”
Yeah he missed a ton of games because he can’t take HGH anymore to recover quicker
Braun had a very solid season after his suspension. Do you not bother to do any research at all before you post your pearls of wisdom?
Hi Braun^
I’m gonna make the grim prediction that the Giants will not sign or trade for a 3B, and we’ll see Sandoval out there on Opening Day. This will be justified a million ways, but there’s no way to put a positive spin on the obvious outcome of sticking with Panda. Giants will only invest in OF and relief pitching this winter.
Well they shouldn’t give up draft picks when their farm is awful to overpay for Moustakas and his career .305 OBP. They are going to be awful regardless of who is at the hot corner after missing out on Stanton and Ohtani. Might as well just run internal options out there and save money for next offseason. I would much prefer if Evans would just come out and announce that they were punting on this season, trade who they can to get under the tax and reset it, then spend huge next year.
Acording to cotts the Giants are 11 million under the cap with the projected arb raises. Platooning panda and arroyo wouldn’t be the worst thing at 3rd.
A Centerfielder who could play above average defense is the biggest team need and then power.
Giving Arroyo the 3B job would be the smart thing to do. Panda is washed up and the giants need to move on not trotting out the same old player hoping for a miracle.
Panda makes sense as an IF utility guy if for no other reason than he is cheaper than a callup
$182 million with a luxury tax threshold of $197 in 2018. $2016 in 2019. The Giants have room to add Cain. Then if they want a 3B they need to dump some salary. Could you imagine Belt and that left-handed swing in Camden Yards or Yankee Stadium? That would clear $17 million. Then sign Adams at 1B for a third of that.
Agree completely. They are at a watershed moment but still seem poised to continue handing out the kind of contracts that they’re currently kicking themselves for. Martinez, Moustakas … they’ll be trying to shed both in two years should theu sign either/both. And would both take them from a 100 loss team to a contender ? Not likely, and they’d still have a gaping hole in centerfield.
The wise money says eat this season. If you get productive seasons from Belt, Span, Pence, or Samadzjia, flip them before the deadline to drop some salary and retool the farm system some. Meanwhile, go with Slater and Arroyo to see what they can actualy do with some conststent big league at bats. Them be poised to spend next off-season.
I agree that the Giants should not even touch any QO free agents. The cost is way too high.
The Giants experienced a similar developmental nadir after the Bonds era (whose achievement high point was the 2002 World Series – which the Giants would likely have won if Dusty would have just stayed in the dang dugout).
They struggled after that for years because they had had no 1st and 2nd round picks for years because of signing older A and B free agents to try to win it all.
Then they eventually decided to stop signing a lot of mid to high level free agents and roll the dice with the draft and run out what they had. They ended up drafting a lot of the players that helped win in ‘10, ‘12, ‘14.
Now they are at a low point again because of success (and inexplicable international signing decisions) so hopefully they will just decide to make small moves, trust their draft position and develop internally.
It’s amusing how the Yankees are able to fleece top players and prospects from other teams for virtually nothing in return. When other teams, like the Red Sox try to do the same thing, it never works.
Abreu is worth a few top 50 prospects at the minimum. If the Red Sox want Abreu, they’ll have to give up assets from the big league roster to get him (they don’t have any worthwhile prospects).
There’s too many differences in the situations though. Boston could have done the same thing for Stanton if they wanted.
Chicago is actually a smart organization who doesn’t just give their players away after extending them. I’m sure Miami still has a few things left on their clearance rack.
No they couldn’t. Stanton only OK’ed four teams, two of which made no offer.
Regardless, if Stanton had OK’ed the Red Sox, they could have done the same thing. That’s the point he’s trying to make.
No they couldn’t. Jeter never played for the Yankees. That deal was by no means a fair trade, especially since he assumedly would have opted out and gone to a team that has a chance to win after 2020. His salary from now until then is more than fair given his production, so this was a gift to his former team.
Jeter never played for the Yankees? Huh? Don’t you mean the Red Sox? This an example Of why people who don’t know crap about baseball
and shouldn’t post!
S&$^! I meant never played for the Red Sox. I had those comments coming on that one.
Something like this should work:
Chicago trades Abreu and Avisial Garcia to the Red Sox in exchange for Benintendi, Bradley and their top two prospects.
The White Sox get young players to help rebuild, the Red Sox get two experienced impact players to help their offense.
I’d do that deal minus Garcia and Benintendi… I’m guessing Betts, Benintendi and Devers are the untouchables for the Sox
ChiSox city yes of course you would do that trade. It is such a ridiculous trade proposal that every White Sox fan would do that trade.
If that was pitched to DD he would laugh so hard and tell Hahn please never call me again with such ridiculous trade proposals.
Yeah, because Red Sox fans aren’t making similarly silly proposals to get Abreu…
No nothing as ridiculous as that trade proposal. The Red Sox trade two guys that are worth more then the two guys they are getting and oh by the way throw in Groome and Chavis on top that your two best prospects. That is the definition of silly trade proposal.
I’m a White Sox fan, and I endorse this trade proposal.
Well said Bruin!
Hey Priggs I’m sure you would lol.
I’m a W.Sox fan & want nothing to do with JBJ. Much rather keep Jose & Avi. Scooter Gennett had 34 more RBI In 50 less AB’s with an OPS near 900 than JBJ last year. Hahn isn’t actively trying to trade Abreu. If Jose is moved I’d be shocked. Going to take a lopsided even more ridicuolos trade than da one chisoxcity proposed for Abreu to be in a different uniform next year. Avisail is a different story but with the uncertainty in the OF i would hope Hahn keeps Avi. 26 HR 87 RBI under .270 BA & no SB’s doesnt get my marbles hot. Betts & Beni for Abreu & Yolmer sounds good
Thats a joke of an offer. LOL That wouldn’t even be accepted by the computer in a video game.
Good one Yanks that was funny and true
Sox will NEVER trade Benny. Take it to the bank, NEVER
Id just sign JD Martinez instead and let the white Sox keep Abreu
Keep dreaming my friend
@chisoxcity
You are such a homer. What a terrible trade for the Bosox. You were joking right? You did not really post that with a straight face. No way
@chisoxcity
“The Red Sox get two experienced players to help their offense”
Well genius what about the “two experienced” studs they lose in your silly one sided proposal that hurts their offense. How do people like your dream this crap up?
He isn’t worth a few top 50 prospects at the minimum that is just an uninformed comment. Q was worth a few top 50 prospects and Abreu isn’t even in the same league value wise. The reality is Abreu is worth a top 100 and a lottery pick with high upside and nothing more. If Hahn is holding out for a few top 50 prospects he will be waiting for someone to get desperate not gonna happen.
Hahn has the leverage and will have even more when DD doesn’t shell out big bucks for JD. I think if DD was smart he’d offer Groome, Houck, Roenis Elias & fringe prospect for Abreu & Leury Garcia. DD keeps big league roster intact & adds that big bat they so desperately need.
Or other offer could involve JBJ with aforementioned and WS add Avisail Garcia.
Your first trade proposal has merit and that would be something along the lines what could come down trading Benni isn’t even close to happening Hahn wanted Benni for Sale and the was rebuked you aren’t getting him for Abreu that’s funny.
I too am still laughing @chisoxcity
Thank you Bruin these clowns do not realize that a first baseman and quality starting pitcher have very different values. First base being the much less values position and easier to fill
One could argue “fair value” and then throw that out the window. This is Trader Dave we are arguing about. If he thinks Abreu is the missing piece, then I could see him reach for his guy and overpay.
Even with other options on the market, Abreu is drawing lots of interest. Even with Hahn stating it will cost a arm and a leg, there is lots of interest.
There is a reason for that.
Okay, saying a 31 year old player that’s averaged 30/100/.300 over his four big league seasons is worth a top 100 prospect and a lottery pick is beyond ridiculous.
There was definitely special circumstances that led to their deals though. By landing Stanton, they took on an albatross. By landing Chapman, they took on a domestic abuse case and the bad publicity that came with it. By landing Torres, they took advantage of a team that was desperate for a World Series. All their other recent big trades have been pretty fair when it comes to giving up prospects.
You’re forgetting the Yankees took on a $265 MM contract…
Miami is the farm for the Yanks now wt Jeter!!
Generally true, but WSox off to good start in their deal with Yanks. Dumped Frazier’s money and soon after same flipping Clippard offset cash when solid a few weeks. Shed close to 20mil left on Robertson contract + sold high on Kahnle….both those guys in often described super pen were lit up by Astros to end its season. Big winners if respected prospects Rutherford/Clarkin are solid in 2-3yrs.
The Yankees didn’t fleece anyone’s top prospects they traded Chapman,Miller, Beltran And McCann everyone of them an all star
The Sox aren’t dumb enough to do that
The Sox aren’t “dumb” enough to do that? You make it seem like the Yanks did something wrong.
What they did netted them Frazier, Torres (#1 team prospect, top 3 mlb prospect), McKinney (#14 team prospect), Adam Warren, Justus Sheffield (#4 team prospect and top 50-70 mlb prospect), Albert Abreu #8 team prospect), Jorge Guzman (#7 team prospect and centerpiece for Stanton deal), Dillon Tate (#12 team prospect) and few other fringy prospects.
Someones salty and don’t understand how baseball trades and salary dumps work.
@yanks
The casual baseball fan will never understand
We will have to wait and see on the stanton trade.
He is more likely to opt in come 2020.
1. He will be 31. He could get a 7 year deal then, but no way he gets the NTC at 31 with that long of a committment.
2. Yankees could see dimisihed returns come age 32 or at the latest 33. Meaning theyll get 4 years of premium production (hopefully) and be paying an expensive DH for 6 years.
Marlins accomplished what they wanted. They cleared themselves of that giantic committmemt and are only.on the hook for 30 mill.
Most people thought
A. theyd have to take back a bad contract to get a better return and send cash
B. they had to eat 40-50 mill min.
They were forced to do neither.
Yeah because Jason groomed and Michael Chavis couldn’t pull Abreu lol. promise you right now if they do consummate a deal the red sox will not include groome. If anything they would rather substitute Jackie Bradley for groome and add a b level prospect with chavis.
How is Abreu worth two top 50 prospects? He has two years and 40 million and can only play first. He is unlikely to be traded because with all the options out there he isn’t worth it for any team but the White Sox. The Red sox still have two top 100 propsects and it shouldn’t take more then one and a couple lesser to get Abrueu.
So the guy who led the AL in total bases (over even the likes of Altuve and Judge) is worth only 1 top 100 prospect and some filler? Not a chance.
Hilarious! Abreu “can only play first.” Way to turn that into a negative, when your team is looking for someone who can play first. I guess after DiPoto traded for Dee Gordon to play CF, its now going to become a trend: Always trade for a player that has never played the position you are looking to fill. If they play the position already, offer less in return.
Of course the Red Sox are interested in Abreu, but they really dont have much in the way of trade offerings.
Cardinals are a better fit anyways
Yea the White Sox should be looking at St. Louis not the Red Sox…st Louis has some great pitching prospects
I agree and would still like to see a package of Abreu and Avi Garcia for a nice group of top prospects. Helps both teams in their respective directions.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a Cards/Abreu trade and then a Oakland/Garcia deal going down.
Red sox have enough but its kore quantity then quality
Groome, Chavis, Houck, Chatham, Mata easily get an abreu deal done, but doubt the red sox want to deplete the farm.
That’s my point. Their talent pool in the minors is getting very low. We’ve benefited greatly from the trades that have depleted it, but considering we start losing those trade pieces after next year, it’s time to start preserving what we have.
Any two of those 5 get the deal done for Abreu.
There is a less than 0% chance that “any two” of Houck/Chatham/Mata gets a deal done for Abreu.
Hahn does not HAVE to move Abreu, and if we’re being honest here, I don’t even think he wants to. As MANY smart Sox fans have been saying for a long time (not the ones asking for Benintendi), Hahn will make a deal if a great one presents itself – he’s NOT actively trying to move Abreu. It seems like the media finally started catching on in the last couple weeks.
Hahn either moves Abreu now or pays $42 million for him to languish on a losing team for 2 seasons.
Hahn has said himself in an interview in the Tribune that he is actively looking to move Abreu, but that he didn’t think he would make a trade because other teams don’t value him as high as the White Sox do. So we can be certain he is looking to trade him. What we are not certain is what he will get for him.
Because Abreu has little to no surplus value over the next two seasons, Hahn may get one top 100 prospect plus a lottery ticket for Abreu, but if you are expecting much more you are going to be disappointed.
Please link to the interview where Hahn said he is actively looking to move Abreu.
All I’ve ever seen is that “everyone is available” and he’d “listen on everybody.” That’s not even close to “actively looking to move” a player. But I’ll happily admit I’m wrong if you post a link that says otherwise.
And paying Abreu $42 mil over the next 2 years doesn’t mean anything to Hahn. They don’t have a ton of money on the books, and they aren’t trying to cut payroll at all costs. Even with “little to no surplus value,” Abreu brings way more than enough to this team to make up for that salary.
Hahn will be more than happy keeping Abreu around as a leader/mentor for young players like Moncada/Jimenez/Robert IF he isn’t offered something to his liking.
You mean like how Stanton was going to fetch two elite prospects?
Nobody with a brain actually believed that.
outinleftfield did. Maybe that’s why he uses that name on MLBTR. Cuz that’s where his brain is.
Problem is Groome is the only top 50 and he has struggled @ low A Sally league ball. Chavis is a 75-100 who has power but poor plate discipline and low OBP and a career .251/.315/.455 all @ AA or below. The other two are not considered top 100 guys (yet) and Houck, CHatham and Mata have very little experience, or success, past rookie league ball. That’s not really an appealing pool of talent and one that most suitors should be able to beat easily and not even break the farm.
Of course the Red Sox are “interested.” I’m interested in a Lamborghini, but I can’t afford it, as well.
Can’t wait to see what other goodies Cash puts under the Yankee tree via trades , before Christmas Eve ??
The O’s actually keep players that are in demand. Isn’t that counterproductive?
they are in denial, they think they can compete next year
He has 4 years of team control left. They need to trade Britton and brach first and if possible move O’day.
They aren’t making the playoffs in the next 4 years so only reason to keep him is if they think he can boost his trade value.
The O’s will make the playoffs before the Pads, so they have that going for them.
I actually do t think that’s true the Padres have an excellent farm system. Baltimore is poor farm system and not willing to pay the top flight pitching they need to compete they are dead in the American League east until they either go for it or commit to full rebuild.
Orioles are in the same position the Royals were in last year. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see them make the playoffs in 2018 but with their best player and two of their other best players being eligible for free agency after the season and with their farm system being Chance Sisco, Austin Hays and then 50 feet of crap they are in for a long playoff drought after 2018. What exactly makes you think they will make the playoffs before the Padres do?
What makes me think that? The fact that the NL is better. AL West, Astros. Central, Indians (and in 2 years the White Sox.) East, Boston/New York. There’s a slim chance for Baltimore to get a second wild card from the AL. NL East, Nationals (in 2 years Philadelphia and Atlanta) Central, Cubs (Cardinals and possibly Milwaukee will continue to compete). And then the NL West, Dodgers, Giants, Arizona, and Colorado. Going to be a lot tougher to get even a wild card in the NL than the AL. Just my thoughts on it though. Baseball is unpredictable and people are wrong every year.
Orioles are going to be bad for a long time after 2018. Padres will be bad for two more years in the best case scenario. Three is more likely.
Possibly. Still have a better chance at contending before San Diego does.
They don’t. You just don’t understand and that’s ok.
I understand completely. I said Baltimore will make it before San Diego. I’ll stand by that. Preller is a joke, and is only going to drive that franchise into the ground. I’m sorry you don’t like what I think, and I’m also sorry if it offends you as a Padres fan. But they’re horrible. Baltimore isn’t much better, but I rather be a O’s fan these days than the Pads. Talk about going nowhere for the next 10 years, you’d be talking about the Padres.
Lol you clearly aren’t aware of the state of the Padres’ farm system. And before you go saying that having a strong farm system doesn’t mean anything until those prospects prove they can hack it in the Majors, what does that say for the Orioles’ farm system? How are the Orioles supposed to contend anytime soon after they lose Machado and Britton?
Oh I completely agree with you. I’m not saying that the Pads don’t have a better system in place. I’m saying I don’t trust Preller as far as you can throw him. Zero faith in him as a GM. He’s going to run that organization into the ground.
Ah, so you say this because you have an issue with Preller as a GM and an inherent bias against the Padres organization rather than because of how well they are or aren’t set up for the short and long term future. I get it now.
My points stands that the Orioles are one of the most poorly set-up teams in MLB and as such, are likely l0oking at an extended playoff drought if they can’t make it this upcoming season while they still have Machado. The Padres, meanwhile, are set up very well for the future. When I think teams that go on extended playoff droughts, I think teams with bad to mediocre products on the field, no farm system and an active refusal to rebuild. The best recent example is the Phillies from like 4 years ago. The Giants will likely head in that direction at some point. The Tigers looked to be headed there but finally cut their losses and started rebuilding last August. The Padres do not fit that criteria. The Orioles do.
I have no bias, I am just stating what I think. I’m sorry you disagree with it.
And I’m telling you that there is no way the Padres will go longer without making the playoffs than the Orioles. The Padres are not among the “hosed” teams. The Orioles are.
The 0’s are s joke of a franchise
No way the O’s move Givens. They’ll trade Britton or Brach first.
The life and times of Jed Lowrie
I wonder if the Sox’s renewed interest in Abreu has anything to do with Stanton?
Its has nothing to do with Stanton and the interest has always been there so there is nothing to renew
Boston may be interested in Abreu but why give up assets for him with so many other 1b options available for only money?
So you really think they should shell out huge money over the years to Hosmer or Santana (looks like Morrison heading to Colorado)? 1b is biggest need/void for Red Sox and Abreu is by far best fit for so many reasons.
The main one being it helps the white Sox right
They have Hanley and Holt whom can play 1st, as well as Travis in the minors. 1st isn’t the vacuum it’s made out to be. I’m more worried about 3rd. Devers is not a great 3rd baseman. He committed 30 errors between AA, AAA, and the Majors last year.
If they really want to make a possible power upgrade without breaking the bank, they shift Devers to 1st to split time with Hanley on 1st and DH and sign Moustakis to 3rd. Even though Moose’s defensive metrics are trending down (I think injuries have mucked the stats up tbh), he’s still gonna be much better over on 3rd and he brings good power potential. No prospects lost. Sadly, this isn’t going to happen. Boston will leave Devers at 3rd for another year or so and finally give up the ghost and send him to 1st way too late.
Actually signing anyone with a QO costs you a prospect (aka 2nd pick).
Unless Boston is 110% sure Devers can’t play 3B, it’s WAY too early to shift Devers across the diamond. If he has another poor year defensively next year, you can begin talking about it. But after one year in the upper minors/majors as a 21 year old? Way too soon to draw conclusions.
Which asset are the Red Sox more flush with? Prospects or money? There’s your answer. Sign a FA 1b.
The White Sox are in a good position. They have a guy, that they do not have to trade, who is apparently wanted by other teams. Their asking price is high because they do not ‘need’ to move him. They are asking the moon for him, which is what any GM does when they are in a such a position. The Red Sox do not have to do anything. They do not have to trade the best prospects left in their org for him, unless they really really want him, which I doubt they want him that bad to move their top prospects they have left. So what? A trade does not occur. Simple as that. All this super fan ‘…gimme all your prospects for this guy’, or ‘.. he is only worth a couple of scrubs from our org’ is just silly posturing.
Padres please just get Cozart and call it day. Stay away from other high priced 1bmen like Hosmer or other pieces we don’t need…
Cozart to the Padres makes too much sense. Padres are the only team that needs a shortstop bad enough to pay him that much money.
Seriously but well probably try to go get Chapman or Miller something stupid like that.
Hahaha!
Probably…
If they really feel the need to sign a free agent, then Cozart would make more sense than someone like Hosmer. They could give him a 2 year deal, 3 years max.
Isn’t the Giants 1st round pick protected as a bottom 10 finisher in 2017?
That’s not true any more. All first round picks are protected now
If Giants or any team over the tax sign a QO player they lose 2nd and 5th picks plus 1 million in international signing money. Teams under the tax (cubs) loses 2nd pick and .5 million.
What would it take for the Cardinals to get Abreu? Carp and a top 50 prospect?
I don’t see the White Sox having any interest in a 32 year old first baseman… If you want to go Kelly + a decent pitching prospect, I’m sure Hahn would be interested.
Kelly Flaherty or Hudson and Jones and maybe Grichuk with the idea the white sox can flip him at some point if hes productive.
But if not then Kelly Flaherty or hudson and Jones plus another c prospect gets abreu
That’s a joke right? Your not getting all that from the Cards for Abreu! Stop it!
white Sox wouldn’t want Carpenter, they would want guys with 5-6 years of cheap control. Kelly and either Flaherty or Alcantara would be a good start.
That’s not true any more. All first round picks are protected now
Once again, Cafardo just makes stuff up on Sunday morning while hes stuffing his face with jimmy dean sausages
Jackie Bradley, Michael chavis, Chatham, and maybe a reclaimation project like swihart or trey ball. Would probably get a deal done.
I’m thinking it would take a package like Devers and Groome. And the Red Sox would (and should) hang up. As a White Sox fan, I don’t want to see Abreu leaving, certainly not for relatively equal projected on-field value, just because of what his leadership means to a clubhouse full of young guys. Chicago would have to get enough additional value to replace what the lack of his presence would cost them, and I doubt Boston is willing to go that high.
Don’t know the Cardinals’ farm system enough outside of Reyes (who I assume would be a deal-breaker) to guess what they’d give up.
I think a package for Abreu would probably be something like Groome, Chavis, Leon, and Kelly. Boston can easily replace Kelly and Leon on the big league roster while they would fill holes for the Chisox. It would devastate the farm but DD doesn’t seem to care much about that.
You all are either out of your minds or White Sox homers, sheesh! Abreu isn’t worth a package like that in Rick Hahn’s wildest dreams. He’s 31 and projected for a little over 3 wins next year, and right in the sweet spot for decline after that. He’s making $20m AAV for his last two years of control, and there are loads of 1B on the market, including a guy like Carlos Santana who has basically the same projection and is same age.. That’s barely $10m worth of marginal value, which is a bottom half of top 100 prospect maybe, only if there’s competition.
Hahn would hold out for Eduardo Rodriguez and Broome with Swilhart as a sweetener. DD should hold out for Yolmer Sanchez in addition to Abreu as insurance for Pedroia and backup to Devers. Unlikely Hahn agrees to add Sanchez to the mix (someone needs to play 3rd for Chgo.) but that is a likely framework.
Dombrowski should hold out for SALDINO and his sweet stache
I keep hearing Abreu is a 3 WAR player. His actual WAR has been 5.5/3.8/2.7/4.7. So, basically to lower their estimate of his value guys keep cherry-picking a BS projection. To me I would be selling his value as being a 4WAR player which ups his value by 8M a year. Projecting a 3WAR is basically saying he will perform at his worst level of his career. I get that it fits a narrative that he isnt that good. Ok. You dont want him. If I am Hahn I ask for the value of a 4WAR player and I dont flinch. Look at the last four WAR.
Fangraphs has him rated lower but regardless the projection systems have him rate at about 3 WAR next year.
His last 3 years, which is all teams are paying attention to, were 3.2/1.8/4.1 fWAR. That is a 3 WAR average. He is 31 next season, so a decline in production is a given. He will decline further as he ages so 2019 should be lower than 3 WAR by a good margin. With arbitration estimates of $18 and $24 million the next two years, there is no surplus value in trading for Abreu. The White Sox are not going to get much in return. If they got one of the Red Sox 10 prospects and a lottery ticket, they should consider themselves lucky.
He is projected for a little under 3 WAR next season.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15676&position=1B
Take 12% off that for 2019, so under 5 WAR for 2018 and 2019 combined.
Why are you valuing a projection as factual? Use that as a thought reference and not act as if it’s a magic ball foretelling the future.
I’m sorry but you do not understand how valuable abreu really is. He is so under a ted in today’s game. Anyone who truly follows the players and not so much there favorite team or teams knows it goes 1. Goldschmidt 2. Votto then 2B. Abreu. Also you do not understand the position the resort are in. After the heist the yankees just pulled and the redsox in win now mode. I would not be surprised at all if benedini or devers is in a whitesox uniform next year. Same goes for the cards they are as desperate as the redsox are. Simply because they owe there fan base more. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded alex reyes for abreu. But either way if abreu is traded to either of those teams u better bet your as the Sox end up with 1 out of them 3. And if both teams offer reyes and ben/devers I wouldnt be surprised if the wsox end up with 1 of them plus another key prospect
I don’t think fans of these teams like to admit their GM is “desperate” but in fact it’s 100% correct.
Cardinal fans HATE the Cubs being good….same with Boston/New York.
After Dombrowski made the move for Sale, Kimbrel….signed Price, why would he stop now? He needs to add a first baseman, but the only question is which one.
I love it when there are tons of rumors about team A wanting a player and fans talk about “no we don’t need him we can just sign a FA”. It seems like the Red Sox have more interest in Abreu than the FA options.
That being said, I think that while Abreu is the better contact hitter, Santana has the combo of power and drawing a walk that the Red Sox (and Yankees) tend to appreciate.
Projections are some what meaningless to me when it comes to mlb players. Abreu was a 4 Win guy last near. Who’s to say he will decline next year?
It’ll be interested to see how it goes but I think a prospect ranked top 50 and another 100-125 seems reasonable.
TBH I think they should resign Mitch Moreland he is a consistent hitter and look for another starter and maybe a catcher
The only reason I can think that Lowrie is still with the A’s is that for some reason teams essentially want him for a bucket of baseballs. He was Oakland’s best hitter last year and while he doesn’t have the range to play SS, his play at 2B is more or less league average.
A’s have Barreto, Schrock, Mateo, etc that will all push to start soon. I suppose he’ll get dealt at the trade deadline, unless the A’s are contending for a WC-berth at the trade deadline.
Everyone knows Red Sox NEED a big bat. Two years from now Sale, Porcello, Kimbrel & Hanley will be gone and Price & Pedro will be on decline. DD knows or should know his only options now are JDM for prolly 150 mil or Abreu for two years & 40 mil. Groome, Chavis, Houck & Roenis Elias for Abreu & Yolmer Sanchez.
The fact a couple teams are inquiring when its been stated it will require an arm and a leg means they think he’s good. Like “4 WAR type” of good.
8 x 4 = $32m….so about $15m surplus this year and maybe $12 next. $27m surplus gets you AT LEAST a 50 FV batter or 55 FV pitcher.
Add in the fact that Abreu is going through arbitration rather than a guaranteed contract (they can just non tender his second season if he goes all Sandoval on them) and the buying team will pay extra.
Add in the fact he is the top PROVEN bat on the market once JD Martinez signs and multiple teams have interest and the buying team will pay extra.
(Groome, Chavis, + project arm) will be the lowest offer that I could see getting it done but knowing Hahn is under no pressure to move him…..I think Devers will be in this deal or Hahn just waits it out. Benintendi is out of reach for sure, but I think Devers might still be in play.
Devers isn’t in play at all you are wrong no chance of that.
I won’t disagree with that. If I’m Hahn I ask for Devers and if DD says no chance then I ask for Groome AND Chavis plus filler. If that doesn’t work I hang up. I suspect there will be plenty of interest and no pressure to move him whatsoever.
matter of fact….I’d hang up after he says no to Devers. Hahn could shop around and likely find a better package than Groome/Chavis.
Maybe if other talks doesn’t go as hoped, I consider a fallback option of Groome/Chavis later in the offseason or just pass altogether.
I don’t think you wait this out. You either move him now and the excess value (whether you think it is 4-12M this year) or you keep him for two years. I just dont think it makes sense to eat that excess value with this team. You need to move it. If you think he need a clubhouse guy go sign another one of those guys, but wasting his 2018 value is a bad decision IMHO.
Depends. I agree Hahn should get a deal done, but in no way should one be forced. If the offers ain’t there, then he is plenty valuable staying with the team.
For instance, if Chavis and lesser prospects is the best offer out there…..do you move him? Heck no!!!
Devers isn’t going to be legitimately in play – that doesn’t mean Hahn won’t ask for him (I’m sure he will), but the odds are VERY slim. And as I’ve said before, I’m not particularly interested in Chavis. Maybe Hahn views him differently, but I don’t see anything in the minors that I’m super interested in. I’d rather try to purge the Cardinals system. Just my personal preference
Was you not here when all the talk over Quintana went down? He won’t get a top prospect at all. He is terrible, blah, blah, blah…..
2 Words….
Jimenez, Cease
I’m not saying Abreu’s value is worth Devers. I’m not saying his value is worth Groome AND Chavis “on paper”. I’m saying desperate teams and bidding wars change the landscape dramatically. I would not be surprised to see Hahn find a NICE package in return for “zero surplus value”.
Yes, I was here. I’m the guy that was saying they should target the Cubs for a package of Jimenez and Cease before the season even started… Feel free to go back and search for those comments if you’d like.
As much as I’d love to get Devers, I know it isn’t going to happen. If Hahn likes Groome or Chavis and some secondary prospects, a deal will probably get done. As I’ve said though, I personally am not all that interested in those guys – which is why I’d rather look to the Cards for a package of Kelly + a solid pitching prospect.
Don’t think Devers is coming either, but like you…I’d ask and then move on. A major league ready Carson Kelly is more valuable than Groome in my opinion.
What do you expect with Collins? Never stick as a catcher and a move to 1B…..or more of a utility 1B/C/DH type? Worry about it when the time comes I suppose.
It’s hard to tell on Collins without seeing him play. Based on everything I’ve heard, he has made great improvements behind the plate, but for all we know, that could just be White Sox coaches/scouts spinning it whichever way they want. For now, I’ll have to take their word on it.
At this point, I’m more concerned with his bat than I want to be. I know he spent way more time working on his defense than offense last year, so it’s not a complete surprise that he didn’t hit great, but I still wanted more from him. If he actually has made huge strides on defense, I’d expect him to spend a proportionate amount of time on the offensive side this offseason. For that reason, I think this year will be very telling in his development on both sides of the ball.
That being said, even if I did believe he could stick at catcher, I would love to add someone like Carson Kelly. Worst case scenario (after assuming Collins and Kelly work out, which is a big assumption), Collins could DH when Kelly catches and catch on Kelly’s off days. In theory, Collins should have more than enough bat to be a capable DH option.
If the White Sox get one of Groom or Chavis and a lottery ticket then Christmas came early to the south side.
Abreu will make $18 million in 2018 and $24+ million in 2019, he is a 3 WAR player, and it is a certainty that he will decline further as he is past 30 years old now. There is no surplus value at all.
“he is a 3 WAR player”
NOPE
“it is a certainty that he will decline further”
NOPE
“there is no surplus value at all”
it’s your story, tell it how you want
Baseball is a game of “what have you done for me lately”. Morrow is a PERFECT example of that. J.D. Martinez is another example.
Abreu was a 4.7 WAR player last year. The fact that his value mainly comes from his bat as his defense is “meh” means this guy can RAKE!
Saying he is valued as a 3 WAR player over and over again doesn’t make it true. But go ahead and stick with it…..do your thing.
31-year-old position players decline an average of 7%. from their age 30 season. 32 year old players decline an average of 12% from their age 31 season. Power hitters more than others. It is not my opinion, it is the facts.
Teams do not care what a player did 4 years ago. They look at the previous 2 or 3 seasons to establish value depending on the age of the player. The older they are, the shorter the time they look back. Either way, it puts Abreu at a 3 WAR. That is the fact of the matter.
You can dream on if you want, but it won’t change the facts. They are what they are.
Abreu was a 4.1 WAR player last season.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15676&posi…
Apparently Cubs didn’t get your memo….2 -3 years back on Morrow is worth $10 mil…..hmm
I borrowed 4.7 from the above poster.
I stand corrected, thank you.
There is a reason that every single one of the projection systems has Abreu at a 2.6-2.7 WAR next season and a 2 WAR in 2019. He is going to decline and he is going to decline in production. It is a fact of life. Players over 30 decline. There is no way around it.
You can whine and cry all you want that your precious hometown player is worth such and such because he did this or that in the past. The plain and simple fact is that Abreu has put up a 3 WAR over the past 2 or 3 seasons and he is valued as such by other teams. Teams know for a certainty that players over 30 decline and they are not willing to pay for them in prospects and money.
Abreu will make about $42 million over the next two season and that is all he is worth. No team, not even the Dumas Dombrowski is going to give up much to get a player with no surplus value.
so Nelson Cruz was a 1.3 WAR player as a 32 yr old. He must have been like a -6 WAR guy last year huh? Because its guaranteed they decline, right? Beltran, Holliday, ……….. they all blew up at 32 years old huh?
All your “facts” is good for a baseline projection of trade value. When you add competition (Cards/Rockies/Mets/Yankees/?) and then you get one GM that thinks Abreu could be “the missing piece” you have a recipe for an overpay.
Dombrowski is interested and he knows the cost is “an arm and a leg”. Maybe Dombrowski would rather buy into Abreu’s 31-32 yr old seasons rather than pay for Hosmer/Santana’s 34-35 year old season in a few years in addition to Price’s decline..
If thats the case, then he is going to compromise on Hahn’s asking price to some degree.
The arm and a leg is a top 10 Red Sox prospect and a lottery ticket. That IS the value of Abreu and that is why Hahn has said he probably will not trade him.
How’s it feel to be you? Do people smile at you a lot because they think you’re special? It must be nice never being wrong about anything.
I could post the projections from Baseball Reference or Baseball HQ or Baseball Prospectus. They all have different valuations but I still don’t see a 3 WAR player. Go look if you have a subscriptions anywhere other than fan graphs.
B-
Doesn’t matter what his value is (to an extent). Hahn sets a price and he either gets traded or he doesn’t. NOBODY on the current roster will be upset if Abreu is on the southside in ’18.
What is s this Oprah
hurrrrr da durrrrr
*fart noises*
You’re acting as if he’s a salary dump. He was a 4 WAR player. The reason why the Sox want him is BECAUSE he’s a good player. Whatever salary he asks for is bound to be below market value seeing as how it’s arbitration. This isn’t a Alex Rodriguez or Giancarlo Stanton situation where you have a really good player signed to a very long and expensive deal. His earnings have nothing to do with his trade value.
Um, all Abreu does is mash and intimidate.
Red Sox have to do something, question is how much will it cost?
Sox just need one power bat.
Red Sox just don’t seem like a fit. Groome as the headliner is weak. So far he looks as much like a bust as he does a viable rotation piece. Chavez doesn’t appear much of an upgrade to Burger. Maybe Rodriguez makes it interesting but he is coming off major knee surgery and will be out most of the year. Cardinals are a much better fit.
Groome and a headliner is weak lol he is an 18 year old kid who was injured in the first game, non arm, and then came back later in the year he had five strays in a row where he was absolutely dominate then struggled some to end the year. He won’t loose any of his shine as a prospect he is too 50 for sure. If the Red Sox offered Groome, which I don’t think they will, Abreu will probably be a Red Sox. I wouldn’t do it for a position they can address with free agency and give up no prospects.
“Games”
Why are you so offended? You said he had a couple of good starts and a few bad ones. To be specific he gave up 33 runs and allowed 25 walks in 44 IP at low A sally league. That isn’t good. Does it mean he’s a bust? Of course not. However, his ranking as a top 50 is based purely on projection and talent and less about performance. He’s top 50 ranked but let’s not act as if his performance warrants that. It’s valid for people to be analytical of the results. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he slipped down on some lists this winter. Eventually, he might justify the high ranking. Doesn’t mean that another team has to buy into. The nature of a prospect is all about hoping they turn into what you think they might. So far, he’s done nothing in his short career to make anyone salivate about him being the best piece of a deal.
Groome was 18 when he pitched in the Sally league that is an age differential of 4 years to the average. Also you do realize that Groome gave up 9 of those runs in an inning and a third when he left with a lat injury. I never said he had a couple of good games I said he had five in a row where he was absolutely dominant. I’m not offended by anything everyone is entitled to there opinion but before you throw a numbers out there at least have a clue what you are talking about. I’m sure Hahn would love to have Groome but I don’t think the Red Sox should trade him. I watched two of those games on Milb and he was just flat nasty and made much older competition look very bad. I’m sure scouts would differ on there opinion then yours and I’m quite he can be front piece in a trade especially for a team like the White Sox who probably won’t contend for a few years.
From what I’m reading here this seems true. I just think the Red Sox can’t sit back and hope after Giancarlo is shipped.
Groome isn’t a terrible headliner, but I do think there is better available and obviously what else is in the package matters.
Forrest Whitley would be interesting….maybe with J.D. Davis
Carson Kelly or Jack Flaherty would be interesting….lots of second tier options
Pint is less interesting for me….but I like Welker more than Chavis personally
This is why the value of Abreu is only so important. When teams feel the need to “go for it” and a bidding war pursues…..prices don’t match the actual value.
Give DD some credit. Since he took over a last place team in late 2015 (also last in 2014):
2016 — 93 wins, 1st in AL East, lost to a Cle team that took the Cubs to the brink in the WS.
2017 — 93 wins 1st in AL East, lost to the WS winner and reset the Lux Tax.
From the 2017 25 man opening day roster loses only Moreland, Chris Young and Abad. In 2018, they get a full year of Devers power. Plus, Price, Porcello, E Rod, Wright. Carson Smith, Thornberg, Betts, Bradley, Boegarts , Hanley &; Marco Hernandez are all possible rebound canidates in 2018. They may even benefit from Pedrioa missing the first half if that means he’s healthy for the playoffs.
DD does not have to act desperate in this FA market. Neither does he have to dip into their prospects .unless the price is right. He has put this team in a position of strength.
I’m thinking if it weren’t for Aaron Judge, the Stanton deal wouldn’t be half as scary. If Judge comes out again next year, it don’t matter if you have Sale, Price, Hanley, etc. It’s not enough.
The Bosox need one 1B/DH power bat which is the easiest thing to find.
NYY need starting pitching which is the most expensive and hardest to find.
The NY bullpen will wear down if they don’t get IP from a group that is weakest when you look at IP. Severino 193 IP, Tanaka 178 IP (4.74 ERA) Grey 162 IP, Montegomery 155 IP and a bunch of untested young guys. After Stanton’s contract will Hal S. spend to get the IP’s they will need?
Free agent 1b/dh options could actually vanish quickly. If DD doesn’t like what he hears from Hahn he had better grab one quick. Whether that’s Morrison or spending big on Santana or Hosmer, I don’t think they will last long, especially Morrison.
Hosmer and Santana was offered a qualifying offer….that’s important to consider. Both players will command more GUARANTEED years than Abreu and his 2 arbitration years remaining. Abreu at 2 years won’t compromise signing your core players in the future and will add one of the better 1B bats in the league to compete. Neither player has the power profile of Abreu which is the stated goal Boston is looking to achieve.
Zero long term risk with an arbitration player versus a guarantee of buying year(s) of decline for a free agent bat like Hosmer or Santana.
For those saying “just sign Hosmer instead”…..they already have Price for the future….why not tack on another $20m or so for Hosmer that will be ugly by the end of the contract as well? Right???
Wow….just wow. Yanks have 4 starters set already with the #5 spot open. They had Severino and Montgomery on pitch count restrictions. They didn’t press them to pitch deep because they didn’t have to. Big difference between a staff not pitching deep because they walk a lot of batters or get knocked out early vs the manager asking 6 or 7 innings from it’s starters because you have a stacked pen with 6 or 7 quality relievers.
Yanks and Red Sox bullpens ranked 11th and 12th in terms of fewest innings pitched in the AL so neither team used their pen as much as 10 other AL teams.
Sox also have to wonder what to expect from Price, Rodriguez and Porcello next yeay.
“Sox also have to wonder what to expect from Price, Rodriguez and Porcello next yeay.”?
Giving up really long fly balls. Too long.
Huge R Sox fan:
We won 93 games last year. We will have to win 100 this year to compete.
I would trade instead of signing and giving up our #1 pick in 2018.
Keep in mind you will not be able to sign all your good young players.
You will be able to get #1 picks for some of these players like
Bogaerts. We have some very good young people like Betts, Benentendi,
JBJ, Devers, Vazquez. We have some good young players in the minors.
I would trade every pitcher in the MILB system only because we don’t draft pitchers well.I would trade MILB pitchers like Groome for Hitters like Ryan Braun, Avasail Garcia or Jose Abreu.. Chavis, Brentz, Swihart are draftees we need to wait for.
I don’t want the Sox to buy JD or Santana or other prospects. See who is left for !B. I liked what our !B from last year, Moreland did,. If he’s available sign him cheap..Possibly sign Frazier as a 3B/ 1B/DH.
I would sign the two best Right handed pitchers–Arieta, Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Lynn,.
I would have several R Handed relievers to bring down the Bomber bats.Stanton, Judge and Sanchez in the late innings.
They have Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Kelly, Thornberg, Barnes, Hembree, Workman, Austin Maddox all who are RH.
To me Carson Smith is the key if he is right he is as good as any setup man in baseball. If he is right Boston should have a filthy bullpen but to me it hinges on him. He is death on righties and he really handles lefties too by getting them to ground out. He is the key for Boston’s bullpen next year I’m not really sure how many people know how nasty this guy was before the surgery if he gets it back and he looked pretty good at the end of last year then the Red Sox will have no bullpen problems he is the key.
Givens may be in great demand, but with 4 years of control, there is no way he is being moved. Britton, maybe. Brach, maybe.
I hope givens isn’t on the move. He’s likely our long term closer. Not that it matters who closes on a bad team, which is likely where we go post Machado but his value should at least be higher once he starts closing games and he can help the team win games now before the window gets nailed shut.
R Sox should move Xander for Abreu, Sign FA’s Cozart and Todd Frazier.
Trade Hanley for Trumbo even up.
Frazier 3B,1B, DH.
Trumbo LF, 1B, DH
Cozart SS.
Abreu 1B..
Try to resign Nunez.
Pedroia can be moved for a B prospect–perhaps to Cleveland–reunite with Francona.